A) Buying opportunity of a lifetime - up up and away
B) Relief rally then back to the Great Unwinding
C) All downhill from here
D) I have no fricking clue, but lots and lots of popcorn
September 19, 2008
Stocks
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
35 comments:
C). Any light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train. Welcome to the Ecopocalypse.
B. When the dollar crashes, the value of stocks/houses is not so important. I like Schiff's prediction of gold and the Dow meeting somewhere.
The government will spare no expense using American Taxpayer money to keep the market looking ok until the election and to help out the cronies. It will buy up as much defaulted debt at top dollar as it wants to in order to make sure that the CEOs all retire comfortably.
SEC temporarily bans short - selling
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-SEC-Short-Selling.html
B more likely than A even though the stock markets are a leading indicator. Currently there is still too much deleveraging to go for this to be option A. C is a dark horse that will only occur if the financial market sector goes under. Option D is always applicable!!
some of us live in old apt bldgs and doubt our gigantic landlord corporation will fold. it's good to be a mouse living in a rental for once.
Buy stocks with both hands
B
Bush helping out all those contributors on Wall St and then it is back to the slide. Of course the government will just step in again and cause another rally.
c) All down hill from here.
Enough of all this financial stuff. Cut to the chase. Here's a scene from Mad Max:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4vQzQwcZ1Y&feature=related
Everything on BahnhoffStrasse seemed fine last night - stood outside UBS on Paradeplatz, and no one was jumping out the windows (although they ARE only 8 floors). . .all restaurants crowded here in Zurich. . .Ditto San Diego - crisis over - my Fidelity Money Market is now insurred, and all my companies paid their dividends this month. . .so. . .the condos in downtown SD are still free-falling, but now the government is going to bail out everyone - buy buy buy. . .you can't fight the Fed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Keith, you have to ask? "It hath been foretold", remember? Until the doubling and tripling of house prices is corrected: DOWN.
What's happening right now seems to be the inevitable "mark to market". Is it not the case that Lehman's fail put actual numbers on that bad paper, setting off the next wave?
I'm no financial expert, but in my neighborhood, the Zillow curves are all pointing down - not yet halfway to where they should be. In the mean time, salaries are going to stagnate because of the 'bad economy'. This is still the beginning of the unwinding, and the Fed actions are slowing it down.
Here is a very interesting article on the manipulation of the gold market and the dollar. Why was gold going down? Why was the dollar going up?
We are pawns...It's hard to play when we don't make the rules, or worse, the rules we know change at a moment's notice.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/95496-law-of-supply-demand-is-dead-for-gold-silver?source=front_page_most_popular_articles
B, C, & D
Hang on.
The Great Unwinding.
The only thing coming is PAIN.
It'll be interesting to see if this genius plan by Paulson includes any special tax increases to pay for the $trillion + we're going to spend in the next few months or if it is just going to go on top of the existing $53trillion.
I guess if we don't have to worry about paying for an $8trillion prescription health bill or a $trillion war, there's no reason to worry about paying for the biggest bailout in US history.
And now the auto companies don't have to worry about getting their measly $25BN.
If this isn't treason, what is?
Seriously, if any journalist is reading this, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE ask someone if there is going to be a special new tax to pay for this. Please!!!!
Nothing is prettier than it was.
1. Market buying financials not because it's good but because legally it has to cover.
2. Debt is still crap. Even if government picks it up, it just means governmenet prints even more money without GDP to go with it. That spells INFLATION.
3. Free markets thrown out the window. How do stock markets do long term in a communist economy?
A nice short squeeze to basically take out all the shorts by government fiat.
Then we're back to an october crash instead of a september crash as originally planned.
1987 redux.
If Nancy Pelosi had one atom of honesty in her entire body she would not allow the bailout unless there was a new tax created to pay for it and every mortgage that was purchased would be investigated for fraud. Of course the crooks that caused this mess will get a free pass and the new taxes will come along later when everybody forgets why we need them.
This has the feel of a horror movie now.
brief rally, friday is options expiration, coincidence (i think not)?
Then back to the great unwinding.
I am going to sell all securities into this rally in protest then sit out. Oh, I may play some ETFs but that is it.
Who knows what the goberment is all about anymore, really??
Whats wrong is now right.
whatever they try to stop, the markets will still collapse, (Oct-Dec) because its rigged.
DK said:"I'm no financial expert, but in my neighborhood, the Zillow curves are all pointing down - not yet halfway to where they should be. In the mean time, salaries are going to stagnate because of the 'bad economy'. This is still the beginning of the unwinding, and the Fed actions are slowing it down."
What scares me DK, is that even though all of us here know houses should be purchased with no more than 3x incomes-with the the gov. sweeping credit default swaps under the rug, I really now believe the gov will bail out all the homeowners when the time comes-even to the point of giving each f*ucked homeowner CASH...upward of anywhere from $100-400,000 dollars when they no longer can make their payments to compensate them for "buying into the biggest housing bubble of all time".
Am I wrong for thinking this??
After seeing the Government bail their wall street friends, why not the sheeple underwater in their mortgages?
B.) There must be consequences. The market will insist upon it.
B) Relief rally then back to the Great Unwinding
DNY
As we have said before in this blog. GOLD is a hedge against uncertainty and we are definetely there right now. This relief rally will die, gold will surge, but not because of INFLATION. GOLD WILL SURGE BECAUSE OF DEFLATION guys and girls. DEFLATION.
I have never seen so much CREDIT being erased so quickly. WE ARE TALKING BILLIONS. Schiff's prophesy is incorrect. I don't see money falling from the sky yet. Where are the printing presses???? What I see is CREDIT disapearing, POOOFFFFF.
Even if they are printing, it wont do much when more CREDIT disapears than is printed. There is no velocity in money right now.
Take a trip to MISH's site. He is right on the money.
Dny
What happens after every bailout?
Market euphoria and a rally.
Then, with the passage of time, investors realize that even the bailouts will not correct all the misallocations of resources that took place over the last 8 years.
Then a crash. This is not over, not by a long shot.
D.
FMW
I don't see how this is good for anyone other than some short-term relief for certain banks.
Overall, this Paulson plan will be disasterous to our economy.
I think the "buy and hold" idea for stocks is now dead. People forget that there are long periods of time in our recent history where the stock market went nowhere. From 1960 to 1980, the stock market was flat. Want to park your money in the stock market mattress for the next 20 years?
Also remember all the baby boomers are going to retire soon and will be taking all that money out of the stock market over the next couple of decades. We're seeing the end of the 25-year long boom - not to mention the end of the free market economy that created it. We're going to have a 20 year long recession.
Capitalism died this week. Socialism is thriving.
leverage at 50 to one means my 100,000 in the bank that was once needed to create, creates 5 million of debt dollars indistinguishable from my 100,000 dollars to compete at the auction for goods and services..... er no wonder i never won any biddings, yet now they wan 100 to 300 percent leverages................... and have the gov supply the 100,000 reserve required to do the creating
we call the bottom when trump files bk yet worth 20 mill
Keith - stop raining on the parade - the FED has everything under control, please go out and make a purchase, otherwise you are with the terroists.
er pardon... not 300 percent leverage but 300 to one leverage but a 300 percent interest might be able to restore the 100,000
its just the same old pump and dump game.. spend a trillion for a piddly little rally.. stop short sellers from calling out the fraud.. and just pray everyone believes those stock values are real.. in the end wall street insiders grab another handful off the top.. and the bill gets passed on to the sheeple..
hell the way things are now.. its my patriotic duty to keep shorting stocks until all this bullshit is flushed away...
"From 1960 to 1980, the stock market was flat"
Well, '66 to '82, but the difference was that tobacco and utility stocks were giving huge dividends back then, circa ~10+% range. Even the Nifty Fifty (Dow, DuPont, GM, etc) were giving out ordinary dividends as incentive and that was honest book keeping. You can't fake giving out cash to your shareholders.
Today, the collapse of dividends in favor of ever appreciating valuation is a loss of credibility in itself. There's no true way to access the natural worth of a company when it hoards its earnings and doesn't return anything to its owners (*hint: stockholders). So all and all, it's a traders game so that in a sense, the whole S&P index could be little more than a zero sum game when all is said and done.
Post a Comment