And away we go...
Gonna be a wild week. And then some...
So, now that panic is here, are you buying, selling or holding?
September 15, 2008
Special Open Thread - The failure of Lehman Brothers and the Great Unwinding before your eyes
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62 comments:
Are you kidding - I sold already - GET OUT NOW!
Laughing.
Rejoice!
If you jump, make sure it is high enough to do a proper job.
America IS DEAD
Gold and Silver buying opportunity of a lifetime today
I have been following HP for the last 2+ years and I should say I was forewarned and I took action.
Sadistically speaking watching the pigs getting slaughtered is fun.
Russian authorities are now jawboning on using the Pensions Fund or one of those puffy SWFs to prop up ... (well, they disagree on what to prop up when everything falls). So much for the BRIC growth story. And you may have already heard it, "Stocks are Cheap".
Wheres the money? Who has raped the system...took the cash and run?
Time to call for investigations and frog marches...another day of freedom for these crooks is too long.
I have always been in the Prudent Bear Fund. It has actually performed rather poorly but I know that I am safe on days like today.
And as I said before, when I get my bonus check at the end of this month I'm doubling down on silver - planning to hold it for at least 2 years.
Lehman '07 bonuses - fraudulent transfers? IOW, recoverable by the bankruptcy trustee? Ouch.
www.creditslips.org
Get your money out of the Banks, the mutual funds and stocks and leave the country. This country is dying.
IT IS TIME FOR SOME HEADS TO ROLL!!!!
I AM SO TIRED OF THE CROOKS AND I AM TIRED OF THE GOV SAVING THEIR A$$ES!!!
ALL ILL GOTTEN GAINS NEED TO BE CONFISCATED NOW!!
I AM PISSED!!
Ok for most americans who can not get out of the country what do we do? Is there any hope? I am serious, what do we do? I have cancer for 3 years and our life savings went to Americans Insurance scam. Medical Bills, lawsuits, I can go on. Double billed by Dr.s no one cared. All this trying to beat cancer so my two small children will have a mother growing up. My husband saved and saved chose not to buy into the housing scam. Than bam I am diagnosed with Breast Cancer stage 2b. 4 Operations, chemotherapy and radiation our life savings is gone. Our savings is gone not due to reckless investing...I became ill.
Keith, I really do need advice I have been loyal reading your blog through chemo.
What do we do two small children ages 5 and 7 who by the way love Barack Obama....I just feel this mess is the republicans fault. I can not believe on CNN today Rerpublican Women Association is telling people to cancel Oprah Winfreys magazine and boycott her show because she refused to have Palin on her show. Well today I signed up for Oprah's magazine and plan on watching her very important show against child predators.
That is what so important to the republican party right now.
sickening.
Taking the hit. If things don't work their way back, moving money around won't do a whole lot of good.
That said, thanks for the tip on metals. And yeah, pulling a Keith and packing it in sounds good even during good times.
I'm holding ... a mess of Q puts.
You short anything today, Keith?
For you SKF cowboys: every gap up on it is getting sold hard. It has diverged dramatically from the July lows. I don't know what that means but a facile reading would be that the market has priced in most of this current stuff. It is looking more and more like the easy long trade in SKF is over for awhile at least.
I'm not on HBB anymore but wanted to pass that along in case anyone uses SKF which I know a lot of you probably do.
I already loaded up just about as much silver as I could in the last month. Silver has dropped from over $21 to 10.80 in 6 months, and the fundamentals of silver are better than ever. It's pretty much like gold, except it has antibiotic as well as electronic and store-of-value uses. Many people think the price dropping is a result of manipulative short selling. If not that, it's just hedge funds selling what's liquid as they blow up.
Just try to find some silver at anything near spot - silver bugs are loading it up. IF the industrial supply is in bad shape (this is a matter of debate) there could be default on Comex which would likely send the price of silver up pretty violently.
You all owe it to yourselves to at least look into this.
Come on, baby! Dow 3600!
YEEHAW!
Buying everything in sight today during a classic panic
txchick,
I noticed I had seen your posts over at hbb blog lately.what happened over there?
I sold out 90% of all stocks including gold about 8 mo ago.
Timing could have been better, but at least I have my gains and then some.
Dont buy stocks. wait and see how this firestorm rips through ALL equities.
Corporatism. These guys want to use government to make corporations more powerful and make people fall in line to do corporate/government bidding. Eisenhower warned us against this. He was a conservative. McCain is just a corporate shill
You can always expect a post or two or dozen from the people who say they sold just at the right time.
Right after they had tea with Amelia Earhart and Bigfoot.
the stock market isnt even down that much. Im as negative as anybody, its a time tobuy.
U.S. markets are at the mercy of the PPT and its hedge fund henchmen, so in-duh-vidual investors will be bent over the rail and ass raped. Get into cash and if you have to play, use a mutual fund to short this monster. The end is coming and it may even get here before the elections in November.
If Business Week thinks Lehman is the 29th-best place to launch a career, what's #30? Enron?
http://tinyurl.com/6klass
Abort launch.
Amazing to think how these Harvard and Yale educated board of directors could have quintupled their understanding of economics if they had just read HousingPanic, for free.
They could have saved their multi-national companies, or at the very least saved their share holders tens of billions of dollars.
If THAT ain't Amazing, Nothing Is.
I think this point deserves a cover article on Forbes.
I was mostly out before this crisis started in Aug 07. And when the first Fed rate cut happened, I sold almost all the rest (U.S. stocks) and have been mostly out since then.
How'd I do?
Did keep a moderate amount of emerging markets that had quadrupled in a few years, and kept a bunch of gold/silver/forex. Been disappointed with these lately though.
Didn't buy AAPL at $180 when Keith said to, so I count that as several thousand dollars of paper gain.
Bought puts on MER for a while which was good, and then got out which was very good. Never got around to my plan of buying puts on AIG, LEH, FNM, FRE--which makes me very sad.
I'm getting more tempted to buy lately, but will probably wait until at least Nov 1. Or certain trigger events.
On Friday I predicted that Paulson would bail out Lehman on Sunday night. Letting Lehman fail was the right thing to do, I just didn't think he had the guts to do it. Or maybe he's just a little short on cash. Anyway, I got it right about Sunday.
I got out last year. Emptied out the 401K, took the tax hit, paid the taxes off early, and paid off my (reasonably priced houses) and put the rest in treasuries. I plan to buy farmland once it drops into something resembling a reasonable price/return on investment ratio. I did get quite a bit of physical silver, but this has to be considered a very long term investment as given the complete absence of physical metals on the market in the face of the plunging prices of metals, I can only assume that the central banks are driving down the metals shares while buying up the physical metals. Once they collar the metals they may go back on a gold/silver standard in a decade or so, after the depression and subsequent hyperinflation. Until then I do not expect physical metals to rise in value. There's no percentage in betting against the central bank oligarchy and anyone who is betting the shop on physical metals had better be able to hold for the very long term. I am holding those metals for my kids, not me.
I've been out of stocks for over a year. I've been spending a lot of time wondering where to bury a box cash and gold (my yard floods when it rains). Then, I need to write an "open in the event of my death" note to someone I can trust telling them where the thing is buried.
The failure of Lehman Brothers and the Great Unwinding before your eyes...
------------------------------------
Wah-Hoo Here we go. I don't have any money in Lehman Bros. But my blighted employer has our 401-K placed with merrill-Lynch, and I see they are now in trouble too. I tried to get my money our of ML, but I can't withdraw it unless I have left their employment. So I am stuck.
It sucks to live in a failed Libertarian State like the USA.
Those IMBECILS from CNN..... now they are pushing the OJ Simpson story....yeah more Cool-Aid....
Dump the real news! Hey, let's talk lipstick, Caylee and OJ Simpson or Oprah Winfrey...anyway...they (Banks) will ALL Fail regardless!!!!
THANKS YOU KEITH FOR SAVING ME!!!
Iwas feeling bad when all my relatives were investing in RE and I was apprehensive.
Then I found this blog and knew better.
You saved me tons of cash!!! Yipeee.
Only in America the cable news are reporting today OJ Simpson back in Trial....What the????
Only in America folks....
Keep the faith.
Now is a good time to invest in Real estate..........
Oh Brother!
W.C sorry i could not afford the property taxes at your area and my former best loved home........... seems i like to eat.......
I haven't had stocks for a year not counting my 401K.
Dow -250 points at 1:00. Big deal. For news like todays' there should have been a good 20% drop. I bet a rally at the the end of the week for sum zero.
I listen to economy podcasts on my way to work in the morning. There's aways some guy from Cantor Fitzgerald saying this is pretty much the bottom, next quarter we'll see an upswing, and bad is really good, up is down, losing money is the road to profitability.
And you know what, guys like him have the power to turn around news like yesterday's into a positive. They are almost as bad as the ramen eaters. Just ridiculous.
Holding mostly in cash. With some of it, I don't have a choice. My kids' 529 plans only allow ONE trade a year which I made to cash on January 2nd. Nice rule in this environment.
I will consider it a successful year if I break even this year.
i sold off 85% of my retirement holds in july and am in cash.
for my non-retirement funds, i am 90% in cash.
why did i sell in july?
because i knew that once more financial institutions went under -- which was just around the corner -- the market would continue its inexorable march downward.
and it happened.
Where to go with the money? In my 401k, I have lightened on stocks and increased cash, but essentially I am stuck there. I hold.
SIPC, unlike FDIC, guarantees $500K of a security's account so I guess those equities in Merrill or Lehman would have to be transferred to another brokerage firm.
Financial markets are for suckers. Always have been, always will be. It's just as bad as a job - you have no control over your money. All you're doing is unwittingly financing someone else's Ponzi scheme.
Or you know what you're doing, and know full well you're trying to make money without actually working or producing anything of value.
Either way it's crap. Good riddance.
I bought GOOG at 750 because Cramer told me not to worry and just buy.
For the long haul it was still a good move. Wish I bought more. ; )
I'm out and staying out. This market is too manipulated - a lot like the housing markets.
" Agent 99 said...
I've been out of stocks for over a year. I've been spending a lot of time wondering where to bury a box cash and gold (my yard floods when it rains). Then, I need to write an "open in the event of my death" note to someone I can trust telling them where the thing is buried."
I volunteer.
I bought GOOG at 750 because Cramer told me not to worry and just buy.
//
I followed Cramer's advice on financials, AND LOST A MINT!! I deserve losing every penny I lost, because of listening to Cramer. I shoulda known better.
I just went out and bought more popcorn and I am holding! All cash! Interest rates will go up!
Did you know that there was a lot of extra room in the Titanic's live boats...but the people who were in them would not pull people out of the water?
I don't know what my point is.
Q: What's the difference between America's Housing PANIC and the Titanic?
A: The Titanic had a dance band.
You people should be buying and not selling at this point.Some of you were very smart to sell at the top.Start putting that money to work.The real money is made in a panic.
The Titanic isn't going down yet.
There has been no PANIC!
Tomorrow maybe another day. . . .
Maybe it will never happen and this was all for nought?
Q: What's the difference between America's Housing PANIC and the Titanic?
Lipstick?
"You people should be buying and not selling at this point.Some of you were very smart to sell at the top.Start putting that money to work.The real money is made in a panic."
Not a panic yet.
The Titanic may be the wrong metaphor for this finanial disaster.
Instead of a sinking ship, it's more like a top secret super-sized submarine that has just surfaced to widespread public attention...
And it looks remarkably like a giant turd.
There you have it, Keith, a new verb: "Keithing"
Keith - did you catch that housing foreclosures are affecting VOTING RIGHTS? Pit bulls of a certain party are going to try to challenge voters right to vote if they are in foreclosure! It's too perfect.
"You people should be buying"
I've been buying and will continue buying financial Puts.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are toast after AIG implodes tomorrow. Goldman trying to prop up AIG is laughable. Couple o' drunks leaning on each other.
Cheers.
short the euro (it will come down, oh yes, it will)
about to start buying oil and NG stocks as soon as the hedge funds complete unwinding their positions
oh, i am long hillary contracts on intrade.
I have been taking low yields in FDIC CD accounts for about three years now . I could of made a lot more money playing the stock moves ,but I went for safety . If they don't pay on FDIC ,than we are toast .
I don't see that there are any investments worth a darn these days
and they all carry to much risk .
My property has gone done in value ,so I have a loss ,but I can afford my payment and I do not intend to walk just because the value is down
and will be for at least a decade .
It's a very sad day seeing what this housing bubble has done so far .
New concept:
Internet bank run
And to think that Titanic sank because of crappy little rivets.
http://tinyurl.com/69eezk
PS: I've been all cash since last year, before the first serious nosedive. I sold every single stock. Not bad, my return for the last three years has been 16%.
Umm, where are you buy, buy, buy guys getting your money from? Seeing as how you've bought on every great opportunity for a year now and have dollar cost averaged yourselves into FRE, FNM, BSC, LEH, MBI, ABK etc. I have been told I'm a fool by people like you for not taking the opportunities in these stocks.
The dow has not dropped in any way that reflects the destruction we have seen.
Please keep buying. I still have some none deployed $$$ left and would love another spike to sell into.
Hi all,
Here I am about to buy a condo and not knowing if it is the right choice. Due to the economy I don't know if I should hold on to the purchase. The truth is that I would be paying almost the same if I were to rent. The area is very good, among the best schools and city services, and close to public transp. and highways. However, with this economy there is a chance that property taxes/cost of living might go up.
Are we going to make it if cost of living goes up? Does anyone see wages going up in the near future?
Here we are with a Housing Market that attracts buyers, but that does not offer any security to those investments people are making.
ANY ADVISE GUYS? This is very important to me. Please any advice...
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