A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
Where are we, and what's your gameplan?Got popcorn?
That is the million dollar question!Looking back 5 years from now, will we wish we had bought or sold?
I hope not, houses in LA are still out of my range, heres hoping to below 200K lol.
The hull has been breached, she is taking on water, and the ship is going down. It's a mathematical certainty.Got popcorn? Nope, got Gold instead. Will that do?
The Maestro himself has called it today: From cnn.com, "Greenspan says economy in 'once-in-a-century' crisis" ... But, the Great (aka First?) Depression was only 80 years ago. So I'm assuming he's saying this is even worse than that was.
Maybe I'm crazy but it's starting to feel like the bottom. The people who've road this out have money and want to make money. As far as housing goes - it might be time to but since the value of the dollar is going to be wiped out. The values in L.A. are so much better than in 1/07. I have to admit I'm tempted to move out of the rental and buy the hi-rise condo.
Feds bailed out China, not the US
We're in the bottom of the 3rd inning in my opinion.My gameplan?Keep working until my job/company vanishes and keep socking earnings into usable assets (tools, fuel, food, etc) + gold and silver. Cash and bullion in fireproof gun safeCopious amounts of ammo 110lb German Shepherd24 months of food in basement (already canned and dried)Generator with enough on site fuel for 180 days of refrigerationBackyard is 67 acres of mature forest with a spring and year round creekAnd if shit gets really bad....Emergency truck kit ready to load including packs, weapons, food, supplies, tools, and enough fuel to make it to more remote regions quickly if society capitulates.Good luck in those cities folks...
The Fed's between a rock and a hard place.* ROCK - Bailout Leman and watch the dollar fall off a cliff.* HARD PLACE - Let Leman fail and watch an old fashion bank run on the remaining wall street financial firms.From the news coming out tonight it looks like they picked the 'hard place' as the rock would have destroyed the FED's power base.It's going to take the PPT to turn on the afterburner to keep the market from crashing on Monday.How much longer can the markets defy gravity?
I don't think this will be the Great Depression, but no doubt it will be A depression.
This is gonna be good. I won't believe the shit has hit the fan until I see it but damn it looks close. Bottom? Not likely guys. We have a TONNE of mark-to-market we need to sort through. When finally a bank's stinking books go to auction and people see how much of a con game Lehman was running, they will shit their drawers when they think of what all the other crooks have hidden in their vaults. Ouch. I sooooo want to see some of the insanity to be revealed.
bb is awesome.It's like the housing crash has become the new Red Dawn. I loved the spring/year-round creek reference....awesome.
As of 9:55pm PST (9/14/08), Lehman Bros.has filed Chapter 11 as reported by CNBC.
PPT rally on Monday starting at 2 PM, as usual, and then again 30 minutes to closing.Crooks!
BB said:"Cash and bullion in fireproof gun safeCopious amounts of ammo 110lb German Shepherd24 months of food in basement (already canned and dried)Generator with enough on site fuel for 180 days of refrigerationBackyard is 67 acres of mature forest with a spring and year round creekAnd if shit gets really bad....Emergency truck kit ready to load including packs, weapons, food, supplies, tools, and enough fuel to make it to more remote regions quickly if society capitulates."---------------------------------My gameplan is to move next door to BB...
I live in a liberal neighborhood. No guns. But lots of juicy daughters of libtard parents. When the power goes off and stays off...muhahahah. Muhahahah. MUHAHAHAHA!!!!Going to party like its...well...2008 LOL
what's your gameplan?Rape and Pillage.
It's all good. We've definitely hit the bottom.BoA to the MOOONN!!!!
Here in Zurich, UBS just announced another 5 billion writedown - ho hum. . .hardly makes news anymore. . .Lehman down, WaMu is next weekend's fiasco, AIG broke. . .the real question, what will this do to the Main Street economies all over the world. . .looks like NYC real estate is now in Housing Panic territory will all those layoffs!Off to Basel this morning - back later in the day to see Wall Street in real time!
someone call the psychopathic hospital to pick up bbguys like him have been crying that armageddon is coming for decadespretty sad for your whole life and even where you live to revolve around your paranoia
Move to Euros for now. Stay flexible, move money around as this thing plays out. Nobody knows what will happen or what the best course of action is, so don't commit yourself.
I don't know if we will head into utter chaos as @bb is preparing for. However, economically, things could get nasty. And, I would sleep a shred better if I had the same lineup of resources that he does.The most likely scenario is that America gradually accepts a smaller and a smaller role in the world. Our dollar will weaken. Stories of retirees with no money will become a regular part of the news. We will gradually move to a more socialist system and working folks will support the huge numbers of people who can't compete in a global economy. Middleman jobs will be eliminated by technology. Multi-nationals will still be managed by Americans, but more and more the Chinese and Indians will compete for those spots.The American middle-class consumer will see his standard of living continously drop. Housing prices will go down gradually in real dollars. The dollar will weaken. But, another shock like 9/11 could make things get crazy. One thing for sure is that neither McCain or Obama will do nothing substantial to make things better for the average American. I will keep a good piece of my portfolio in gold and resource stocks. I will keep a lot of my portfolio away from the dollar. I will make sure I take of business at work to stay off the lay-off list. I will also continue to cultivate my other sources of income. I will keep working and socking away money. I will stay away from toxic financial firms. I'll keep reading alternative sources of world news and financial news like Peter Schiff, Jim Sinclair and others. I will watch the MSNBC/CNN/FoxNews so I know what they want me to think.
Anyone know where it's safe to put your money? Preferably, a foreign bank. This is going to get ugly. Got gold?Hey bb, you got any extra room?
Where's the panic? Vix has barely cracked 25 as of Friday.
I'm seriously freaked out and to be honest I have no particular gameplan. Popcorn, yeah, that I got. :(
We are not bottoming yet, because the house price decline is still fundamentally needed and too strong in its deflationary effects for any Fed or Treasury tricks to have much effect: it's still about insolvency, not just illiqidity. I don't expect bottom, before the market has gotten a grip on the loss due to defaulting exotic mortgages.
What we are witnessing is a global collapse, not simply a depression - the damage is far worse unfortunately.Think that isn't true?Just watch as more and more of this "economic iceberg" becomes visible nationwide.Raising taxes will only make the problem worse - it's just another form of stealing that just erodes the living standards of those who worked so hard to make this country somewhat decent.Bank of America will soon be on life support as the cancer of acquiring Country-Fried (and now Merril Linch) spread within it.What do you think will happen to the property values in areas occupied by the wall-street crooks who will now be losing their jobs and competing for lower and lower salaries?More and more houses sitting empty on the market - it just takes a little longer to hit wealthier areas (i.e. here in Huntington Beach it's looking pretty grim)Who will you be voting for this coming November, and does it really make a difference?
We'll have bigger problems to worry about then where we rest our heads at night. Anonymous said... That is the million dollar question!Looking back 5 years from now, will we wish we had bought or sold?
Don't buy into the culture - you're fine where you are.This will get much, much, much worse before it even starts looking somewhat better. Rom said... Maybe I'm crazy but it's starting to feel like the bottom. The people who've road this out have money and want to make money. As far as housing goes - it might be time to but since the value of the dollar is going to be wiped out. The values in L.A. are so much better than in 1/07. I have to admit I'm tempted to move out of the rental and buy the hi-rise condo.
Rate cut soon . Severe Recession .Not much to invest in .
First up is BoA’s purchase of Merrill Lynch. Lynch’s stock closed at $17.50 Friday, but for some reason BoA is going to pay $29/share to take it over. Why, from a business prospective, would BoA pay this incredible hike when it could have waited for Merrill to collapse and acquired it on the cheap?Anybody???
Here's where we are . . .http://tinyurl.com/6bz726GAMEPLAN?Start living within your means, and forget about "keeping up" with the neighbors.
The world is becoming flat...just as Thomas Friedman predicted it would.Game Plan: See Bloomberg - PE ratios for Emerging Markets have fallen to about 10 and have only been that low 2x in the last 15 years or so...and in each case they rallied 20% in 3 months.International baby.
We are heading down from here - way down. The Dow has barely moved when you consider the severity of the problems out there. Take a look at a five year chart and the drop looks like a mere correction.The failure of the entire mortgage market and (currently) 3 out of 5 Wall Street banks is simply catastrophic. The market in no way reflects that.I have a couple of questions for "Rom"1) I have money and know people with money. No one I know is considering real estate. Where do you get this idea from?2) What possible difference does the dollars overseas value have when buying a US asset with US dollars?!3) A decent condo in LA is around a million dollars. With 20% down you need $200k. How is your savings account?4) With all the spelling and grammatical mistakes in your post, I have to ask: are you a RE agent?
rational renter is still in denial, yes read your history we are heading for a Great Depression and you can thank a few key people for it..Starting with Your President(I sure as hell did not vote for that scumbag, you americans wanted a beer with him now you can't afford it but he sure can)Keith for two years I have been reading this blog and you have been RIGHT ON ABOUT THE HOUSING MARKET AND POLITICS....THEY STILL ARE IN DENIAL. ANY TIPS FOR AVERAGE AMERICAN WORKING THREE JOBS CAN DO? SERIOUSLY, WE NEED SOME ADVICE BECAUSE EVERYONE AROUND ME IS IN DENIAL LIKE THEY ARE BRAINWASHED. THEY STILL WANT MCCAIN AND PALIN, I WILL MOVE FROM THIS COUNTRY. REMEMBER SOMEONE SAID WE MAYBE JUMPING OUR BOARDER TO CANADER JUST LIKE THE MEXICANS.
My gameplan?CommoditiesSame as it ever was, Guns,Ammo, Water, Food.Andy Taylor
BUT George Bushco said the fundamentals are strong?Bush wouldn't LIE would he?
What BB said.....me too....
Wake up!Haven't you people been studying bible prophecy? It's all lining up, how you people can't see it just boggles my mind. Read Isralestine.net, Joelrosenberg.com or spend some time Googling "bible prophecy".Don't be stupid, your decision has eternal consequences.
not much you can do as panic sets in and there is a run for the life boats. I have done all I can to this point with what i have. Just have to hope it is enough as things proceed.Part of what is coming is getting your head around the possibilities, be mentally ready and agile.I am just finishing a great book.Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospectshttp://tinyurl.com/5prcvsInteresting stuff, and some humor.Pretty popular too, I had to wait my turn for 3 weeks from the public library and once it came in I was only given 7 days with it, usually it is 20.
Need a zippy name for it. "The Great Migraine?"
Michael Kinsley did a good Time editorial a while back on how the election should be about the economy. He pointed out that the last Great Depression *ended* with people losing their houses, and says this economic crisis is shaping up to be the worst ever.
"Why, from a business prospective, would BoA pay this incredible hike when it could have waited for Merrill to collapse and acquired it on the cheap?"here is whyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temasek_Holdingsand the fed is behind it i am sure.
My Gameplan?Brush up on my skills. I would rather be a valuable person than a person with valuable things. You can stock up on supplies and weapons all you like, but when/if the New Dark Age comes, those things will just make you a target for someone more powerful. Eventually, you can’t pull the trigger fast enough or you run out of ammo. Then their followers will overrun you.People can easily take away your stuff, but it is much more difficult for them to take away your skills. Someone who can contribute to their community (a doctor who can heal the wounded, maybe an engineer who can fix the machines) will be supported and protected by those people who need them.
We're in the beginning of the Second Great Depression. I have been saying this for more than a year now- but now it's finally arrived.Next month - October will be awful for the stock market and private companies who are moving into 4th quarter and will need to cut expenses heavily to stay afloat. I'm waiting to see what GM will do with all there trucks...perhaps pile & burn them as what was done to the excessive model A car inventory during the Great Depression?
The day has finally arrived when it it now obvious (outside of HP'ers) that the U.S. financial system is a tower of rotten wood....and now it is finally falling over.Expect panic, more collapses, and large layoffs in just about every type of occupation as govt spending contracts are cut (aerospace anybody?), businesses stop buying new software/hardware (MS anybody?), financial sector dominos continue to fall, and all "trickle down" jobs are cut as the "trickle" drys up.Oh, and the latte / "rich wannbe" culture is now officially toast. Goodby "high end" restaurants, trips, vacations, etc.1) Housing has a long way to go...down2) Wages will stagnate or go...down3) Stocks will go....down4) Savings rates will go....down5) Prices for just about everything will go...downWelcome to globalization and the great equalization of standards of living. Europe is next as their wood is just as rotten as ours...if not more so. The contagion WILL spread.
Things will get a lot worse. So far the US gov't is able to borrow the money it needs at low interest rates. China is the biggest lender. China is already starting to fall into recession, in part because the US is already in a fairly deep one. When China either runs out of the extra money to buy US treasuries, or decides to stop for other reasons, the US gov't will face much higher borrowing costs. The death spiral will quick. Probably within a few years of the start of higher interest rates the US gov't will crank up the "printing presses". Maybe within a few months.I am curious as how exactly they will do this. I am guessing they will set up sham entities that buy US bonds with sham money, to try to hide the fact they are creating electronic money out of thin air. Or maybe the budget will start showing profits from some inscrutable investment that is nothing but electronic $ printed up. Maybe they will send vouchers to every citizen, where they can go the bank and extract $xxxx dollars in cash each month. (the helicopter drop, except more orderly). ??? Any other thoughts on this???I agree with BB and the other doomers. This will be like the fall of Rome, except we will also have global warming, and the population will have to crash further.
How can we have a depression with fiat currency? All we can have is inflation as more dollars will be printed to cover the loss instead of more mining and manufacturing.
One radio talk show was asking listeners what to call this new depression, to differentiate it and put it in perspective of the Great Depression. The consensus--since this one will be MUCH WORSE that the Great Depression, we need to call this one:The Supreme Depression.
Mickeyc -1) I have money and know people with money. No one I know is considering real estate. Where do you get this idea from?Plenty of lenders/funds have money. They just can't find a place to put all of it. There's a buying frenzy of attractive/performing debt. Maybe it's a falling knife or maybe we're close to the bottom. 2) What possible difference does the dollars overseas value have when buying a US asset with US dollars?!Commodities are world market products. As the US dollar loses buying power the affordable mortgage payment that I can get now will seem extremely affordable in the future as the prices for everything else rise. Also, if I buy housing at "the bottom" my money is safe and/or rising as opposed to the money I have in the bank which keeps losing value. In other words, I think we're going to inflate our way out of this mess and everything else will rise up to have a historic correlation with housing. 3) A decent condo in LA is around a million dollars. With 20% down you need $200k. How is your savings account?We must be looking at different places. There are plenty of 1 bedrooms/lofts under $500K and I've got over $100K saved up.4) With all the spelling and grammatical mistakes in your post, I have to ask: are you a RE agent?No. Are you a fifth grade school teacher? Be sure to point out the errors in this message.
Just got my brand new 357 magnum yesterday. Spurless hammer, fixed sights, nothing to get caught on when need to get it out quick.Stocking more food, bottled water (I hope all the Green Peace people die of dehydration), ammo, and fuel. I hope this does not come down to survuval of the fittest, but only because I don't want to be one of the poeple picking up all the dead bodies. Anyone from the OC comes at me in desperation or tries to steal my shit will get a hollow point between the eyes. Has anyone seen how many homes are in foreclosure in Coto de Gaza? For you who don't know where that is, it is where many of the rich housewives in the show "Real Housewives of Orange County" live. My only hope is that when I am in Seattle next week maybe I can see the Feds run in and seize Wamu. So the question is where am I at now and what am I going to do? Live! The best I can, and I mean by humility and peace. I am prepared, in good spirits, and with my great wife. Many of the things that people have lost sight of holding in high regard such as a good state of mind, family, and health are going to be treasures that money never could buy. That is where many are truley bankrupt and it is going to be a key player here if things get bad. Try to remember some stories of someone you know who talked about the Great Depression.
Yes it is the next great depression that is unfolding......for without credit being granted as before the US and Canada are eventually bankrupt. Our banking systems are on life support and technically done.All my money (90% of my net worth) is out side of the country (Canada) in a foreign currency.
moving to a commune and practicing permaculture is looking better by the day...can we stay afloat until President Obama is elected, and can he stay in power long enough to clean up the Republicans' top-tier-handout and endless-war mess?
I live in L.A.(San Fernando valley) and staying put.some silver,lots of lead.talking to some of the people here it seems that the general plan for Latinos is to head back home should things get tougher.most own a home or land there.so if shit hits the fan,I expect Los Angeles to be half empty.
Market will continue to go down...my predication is that it will bottom at 8,000 or 7,000, maybe even lower.The country is in recession now, as everyone knows except the Feds. We are heading for an extremely severe recession, one that no one under 65 has ever experienced, and possibly a depression.We will be going into massive inflation in the future, as the Fed turns up the printing presses to full speed.I'm glad I got out of the market a while ago. But I feel trapped now. I'm thinking the only good place to put my money is in precious metals; I don't trust foreign currencies now because those economies will tank with ours...there is still no decoupling from America.
Miss Goldbug said... We're in the beginning of the Second Great Depression. I have been saying this for more than a year now- but now it's finally arrived.... I'm waiting to see what GM will do with all there trucks...perhaps pile & burn them as what was done to the excessive model A car inventory during the Great Depression?My neighbors have this covered. Some are even buying two.JaneZ
You seem awfully anxious to call a bottom in stocks, Keith. Post after post of "is this the bottom?". We won't bottom until most of this mess is behind us. It doesn't look like we're even half-way there, yet. Roubini, who, has been dead-accurate so far, is calling for another 20% off stocks before we can even think about a bottom. Seems realistic to me.Don't put any money in stocks that you can't afford to lose.
Market will continue to go down...my predication is that it will bottom at 8,000 or 7,000, maybe even lower.I'm glad I got out of the market a while ago. But I feel trapped now. I'm thinking the only good place to put my money is in precious metals;Look for a DOW to Gold ratio of between 1 and 5. That may be the U.S. stocks buying opportunity and the gold selling opportunity of our lifetime. Whether that's gold and dow both at 3,000 or both at 8,000, or Dow at 9000 and gold at 1500, or something else, I don't know.
You know the situation is delicate when Warren Buffett walks away from buying a piece of AIG for peanuts.
It's not a bear market until it drops 50%. We're not even close to that.
Wow, look at all the crazies coming out with their guns and food rations. Can anyone picture these losers running around out in the woods with their guns playing soldier. We need to get these gung ho citizens to go help fight the good fight in Iraq. Put those skills to some real use!
No where near a bottom yet. But what do I know?
We are no where near a bottom. A looooong way to go, and things are getting uglier by the minute.
Uh-oh, am I the only one paying attention to the fact that Lehnman will now have to mark to market all that cancer paper, because of its liquidation, thus forcing the other financials to do the same? I mean, if Lehman has the same papers than the rest of Wall Street, and those papers are marked to market, we'll have a pretty good idea of what's on the balance sheets of the other crooks on Wall Street.You can't file bankruptcy and not mark to market what you have on the balance sheet.Unless the zionist Bernanke helps them to hide the true value of those rotten balance sheets.
Coto de GazaLOLYou should have bought a Glock with laser and a Taurus for wify.
Next shoe to drop:AMERICAN AUTOMAKERSGood luck union parasites!
Wall Street and the equally corrupt Federal Reerve Banking System have been cooking the books and feeding us a load of crap.It's time for them to eat their own cooking...BON APPETITE MOTHERFU**ERS!
azdvdphx wrote:"Wow, look at all the crazies coming out with their guns and food rations. Can anyone picture these losers running around out in the woods with their guns playing soldier. We need to get these gung ho citizens to go help fight the good fight in Iraq. Put those skills to some real use!"It's easy to mock us, but can you make a coherent rebuttal to my argument that US treasury rates will be going way up soon? Or do you know how the US gov't is going to pay for that $53T to $99T in unfunded liabilities?
Oh don't worry. The bird flu pandemic that's coming will make a worldwide depression pale by comparison.
yep BB has it figured but they will tax him off...... same robbery.............
Oh don't worry. The bird flu pandemic that's coming will make a worldwide depression pale by comparison.--------------------------------Aloha fellow HPers!I've been posting here on occasion for years and in some strange way will miss all you folks when Keith finally shuts this puppy down.At any rate, I have a few inside connections both at the Fed and State COG planning levels and I am really scared now. In fact, I have never been this scared in my whole life. There is going to be a GHOST Event. [Global Human Overpopulation Specific Termination] I'm not sure of the exact date but I have learned that geophysical weapons of multinational mass destruction will be used to hide the finger prints of the perpetrators.There are preparations now being made both at the FED and STATE level in critical support areas such as Hospitals that will spare a many of the non targeted population as possible. The goal seems to be to purge the so called 'useless eaters' and shrink the global population to a more substainable level. Givin what I have learned about the collapse of historical civilizations, I am not going to pass judgement on the powers behind this. I believe that what is coming is not stoppable. I believe that we humans are going to be subjected to either a natural or engineered population collapse for the simple reason that our global population growth is outstripping the natural resource base required to support such a large and growing human herd.BB and others like him stand the best chance of surviving the either: a natural human culling event, or an engineered GHOST event. Whatever the case may be.Sorry, but I do not have any idea as to timing of this event. It could be a few months from now or ten years from now. What I do know is that my children will experience this event in their lifetime. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that there is a 50% chance of the GHOST event by 2010; a 90% chance of the GHOST event by 2013; and a 99% chance of the GHOST event by 2020.
Excellent post!Boy ... you really hit the nail on the head.I just hope more people start waking up and realize the truths you are speaking about. SeattleMoose said... The day has finally arrived when it it now obvious (outside of HP'ers) that the U.S. financial system is a tower of rotten wood....and now it is finally falling over.Expect panic, more collapses, and large layoffs in just about every type of occupation as govt spending contracts are cut (aerospace anybody?), businesses stop buying new software/hardware (MS anybody?), financial sector dominos continue to fall, and all "trickle down" jobs are cut as the "trickle" drys up.Oh, and the latte / "rich wannbe" culture is now officially toast. Goodby "high end" restaurants, trips, vacations, etc.1) Housing has a long way to go...down2) Wages will stagnate or go...down3) Stocks will go....down4) Savings rates will go....down5) Prices for just about everything will go...downWelcome to globalization and the great equalization of standards of living. Europe is next as their wood is just as rotten as ours...if not more so. The contagion WILL spread.
To Rom -Your reasoning makes sense. However the idea that there is plenty of spare capital to put to work on a system wide basis is simply wrong.I personally think buying now is ridiculous but if you can afford the place who cares what I think?
Not a problem. Instead of charging eachAmerican $3,600 to pay for wall street'sfraudulent activity, give each and everyAmerican $3,600 and forget about Wall Street.The $3,600 "stimilus package" would haveto be spent immediately.Boy would that get the economy going!Forget about Wall Street, give Americans the money!mg
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