Panic
Function:noun
Date:1708
1 a: a sudden overpowering fright ; also : acute extreme anxiety
b: a sudden unreasoning terror often accompanied by mass flight
c: a sudden widespread fright concerning financial affairs that results in a depression of values caused by extreme measures for protection of property (as securities)
September 18, 2008
Panic
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
33 comments:
Cramer on 1987 and today:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26761135/site/14081545/
I tought we're still entering Fear. Panic is a stampede to the banks.
Yeah Cramer, but we need a 25% nosedive like in 1987, not a 5% drop in a day and 3% rally the next. The P/E for the S&P is still around 17%, which is far from cheap. Wake me up when we're in a real bear market of 50% down. I mean, nobody knows the value of anything anymore, then we'll have to wait for the genius in Congress to bring a zillion new regulations, nobody knows how businesses or consumers will get loans. Sure, we can buy anything right now and it'll be up one day...but when and how much? I've been in cash since 2007 and planning to stay put until I see a real panic to jump in. Wanna bet that today will be a rally? This thingy is going sideways.
Russia joins the club: every taxpayer has agreed to provide $16.80 in refinancing for the mortgage-backing GSE. And we still have a housing bubble waiting to pop.
Cramer - a: financialtainment
b: see a
Not in the strict sense, but gotta hand it to you, Keith. You announce HP is closing down and oops, there goes half of Wall Street. Another blog is calling it "Brokergeddon" - how about that?
Keith,
Maybe you could enlighten me: As our gov. (and now others across the globe) dump billions into the market, what exactly does that mean? On a simplified level, isn't this the same thing as offering more credit cards to someone who is already in debt, or am I missing something that all the "experts" already know?
Early panic at best. Cathartic panic will wipe out over 50 percent of the market.Rest of market will be eliminated by defeat.
This isn't going to be 1987, nor even 1929 when all is said and done.
This one will stand alone. So will the follow-up, to be known in history, as The Greater Depression.
That is if anyone has time to write, since gardening to save your life will be the theme of the day.
GrMa PKK
Speaking of panic, Keith can we get some kind of "Fed/Treasury BailOut-o-Meter" going? It might be fun to have a graphic representation of just how much money is being printed.
I'd say we're still in denial. People think this is going to turn around soon, "the stock market will turn around next week."
I heard one guy from a big finance company say something yesterday like "the losses of this financial crisis are only a fraction of those during the recent dot com bust. Average Americans have nothing to worry about."
He's talking about 1987 and 1990...funny he's not mentioning 1929.
That market didn't bottom out until 1932/33...an 80% drop from their highs.
They just keep flooding the market with dollars....and lookie lookie, oil and commodities are taking off as the dollar falls!
F*cking bankers!
Russian government may be in a panic: they shut down their markets for a few days. Though for Russia, that may just be Desperation. Killing people en masse sounds more like panic for Russia.
I think Mark Twain said that September was among the worst months to be in the stock market.
Here's what the US Congress does in a PANIC...they go on vacation:
Democratic Congress May Adjourn, Leave Crisis to Fed, Treasury
By Kristin Jensen
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Democratic-controlled Congress, acknowledging that it isn't equipped to lead the way to a solution for the financial crisis and can't agree on a path to follow, is likely to just get out of the way.
Lawmakers say they are unlikely to take action before, or to delay, their planned adjournments -- Sept. 26 for the House of Representatives, a week later for the Senate. While they haven't ruled out returning after the Nov. 4 elections, they would rather wait until next year unless Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who are leading efforts to contain the crisis, call for help.
One reason, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday, is that ``no one knows what to do'' at the moment.
That's right...leave the unelected to handle the problem.
"Broke Back Mortgaged"
(definitions)
1.) The largest heist and illegal transfer of wealth the world has ever seen via pure corruption to the core by a government and financial industry in a "free" nation.
2.) Taxpayer mating call while grabbing ankles from 2009 - ?
3.)Foreign nations, Congress, the Supreme Court, the Fed, the Treasury, rating agencies, brokerage firms, banks, mortgage brokers, appraisers, real estate "pros", and sheeple.
4.) Hook. Line. Sinker.
Do you ever wonder if the Enron trading house of cards was just a "test" case, to see what could be gotten away with regarding complex derivatives?
Isn't it strange how in 6 weeks the price of oil dropped 35%, yet consumption/demand didn't take a dive anywhere NEAR that amount?
Hmmmmmm... Margin calls coming, and big institutions needing capital quick...get out of oil! Suddenly oil's cheaper? Naaahhh, no speculation screwing the consumer here at all!!! Nothing to see here...move along.
WAKE THE F#$% up!
Everybody on item #3 got gamed, well except maybe congress, the Fed, and the Treasury who was in bed with it to begin with.
And now the "system" has become too complex for anyone to understand, manage, or control. Well, at least too complex for most anyone hired to work for you and me -the taxpayer.
Think maslow's heirarchy of needs folks. Plan for the bottom couple of layers of that triangle. Soon.
.
Where's Waldo?
Better make it a double...
Qweefer you've been calling code reds, great unwindings, and panic for over two years now. In the last two weeks it's finally starting to get here. I guess the analogy that even a broken clock is right twice a day summarizes your economic weather alert achievements.
No real panic yet. I love you Chimpy. Ya gotta love them Republicans, and their Libertarian overlords.
Listening to the current narrative of blaiming this all on Credit-Default-Swaps on CNBC sounds like we are still in denial in this market. Scary that the real fear has not happened!
Panic, what do you know about panic...
(sub "death" for panic and you get a really cool line from the movie "Platoon")
But seriously, except for a small minority I don't see it...yet.
What's happening is what I and many others said would happen.
The US is DEVALUING the American dollar so that house prices WILL NOT fall.
In 2 to 5 years time, a gallon of gas will cost $40, a loaf of bread will be $20, and minimum wage will be $80... IF you're lucky to get a job.
And of course EVERYONE will be POORER.
Since the federal reserve was started in 1913, the US dollar has lost 95% of it's value. This means that what would cost $1 today would have only been 5 cents or less back in 1913.
It also means that anyone stupid enough to bury money into the ground 100 years ago, would have lost BIG time if they dug it up today. People have been FORCED to invest for the last 100 years or be left behind...
Until a system comes into being where I know that $1 toady will buy the same amount 100 years or 1000 years from now... we are doomed to keep having these crashes.
It's not a question of IF, but WHEN!
Why is everyone acting so surprised that WHEN just happens to be right now? People have been talking about this for YEARS!
What... you asswipes who thought you could sell your repainted $50K crap box for a million bucks... you believed that you would live happily ever after?
Reap what you sow!
Yes... the rest of us will suffer too... but not as much.
{/venting}
Sizzling Roasted Snapper Turtle
Function: Noun
Date: 2008
1. Put a fork in it already. We're done.
The so-called "investment banks" that didn't have to play by the rules, should go away.
.
+ IT HATH BEEN FORETOLD +
.
It's all smoke and mirrors ... any gains will soon be lost in this (rigged) market.
Watch as more financial instituions start circling the toilet.
ha ha ha ha ha
Dow up 400
You were saying HPers...
CHUMPS!
ha ha ha ha ha
Dow up 400
You were saying HPers...
CHUMPS!
Did you destroy ALL of your brain cells smokin weed back in school?
Did you ever ask yourself... "It's up... but at what cost?"
Well... just so you know... it's cost the government over 5 trillion dollars to raise the stock market up 400 points... after it has fallen 3000+ points this year so far.
Oh yeah... like that will REALLY inspire me to go invest right now.
I'm sure that the American tax payer has all that new debt covered.
Any day now, the US will start making stuff that everyone will want to buy. Yup... just sit back and watch that money roll in.
Agent 99 said...
"One reason, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday, is that ``no one knows what to do'' at the moment."
If that is the case then quit. If you don't know how to do your job why are we paying you? Go on your vacation and do not come back.
We can just have Keith pick 100 HPers at random to replace the senate. We might not all agree but most of the posters are able to think about the problems and propose solutions that are more or less based in reality.
Free money from the government.
Why do people bad mouth socialism so much - I reckon its great!
Have you notice that in the middle stage of the housing slump many real estate professionals will say don't Panic - Location, Location, Location. Price in good neighborhood in high income area will never go down.
Weren't these the same real estate professionals that said that housing price will never go down just two years ago.
There seems to be a misconception that this housing bust will only impact the low income or undesirable neighborhood, and that the high income and desirable neighborhood will come out of this without any problem.
Yes if you take a trend from middle of 2004 until present it will show you that high end home price only goes up.
But if you take a trend from 2002 to beginning of 2004 when many high end homes in very desirable neighborhood were taking a nose dive after the TECH Bubble crash then it become a different story.
Of course the years that this happen might be different for different cities because it depends on the seven major trends.
Nationally the major trends are:
1) Inflation
2) Interest Rate
3) Flow of Funds
Locally the major trends are:
4) Job Growth
5) Migration
6) Path of Progress
7) New Construction
Remember that there are three phases to a housing Cycle:
I) Boom
II) Slump
III) Recovery
and in each phase there are three stages:
A) Beginning
B) Middle
C) Ending
If you look at the three major national trends you will realize that it will impact the three stages of the housing slump for most of the cities at about the same time, but the four major local trends will shift the length of the three stages of the housing slump at different time for different cities.
But in the end as long as there are people making bad decision then history will always repeat itself, and the seven major trends will dictate the three stages of the housing slump.
As unemployment rises and the credit markets tighten further, consumers will rein in their spending, leading to more layoffs and another stage in the housing slump.
As layoffs rises many of these laid off people will miss their payment and banks will be forced to take more write off. As over burden small banks take on more write off these small banks will be forced to foreclose on many homeowners.
As more foreclosure rise housing prices will continue to slide, and lines of credit will shrink further.
And as the financial sector take a hit so will the support companies like those in the service and technology sectors will take a hit also.
Remember financial sector needs allot of databases so the service sector like the programmers, database administrators, internet technology technicians will that a hit.
The remaining internet technology technicians who rely on high end servers for these databases will try to make due with what servers they currently have.
Many data center upgrade projects will be put on hold or cancel all together which in turn will hit the hardware sector.
As computer and network gear companies take a hit from cancel projects so will video card and chip companies that support them.
And if the high tech sector slow down these people who normally buy allot of high tech toys will rein their high tech spending leading to more layoffs in other leisure technology sectors.
As high end jobs get eliminated the US Dollar should strengthen and investor run to the safety of US treasury.
As the US Dollar strengthen commodities price will weaken which will force another round of layoffs as oil and mining companies take a hit. Oil and mining companies will be forced to cancel their upgrade project and heavy construction companies will be forced to layoff.
As more and more high paying jobs take a hit so will the tax revenue that these jobs generates disappears.
As tax revenue diminish for local county and cities, so will the medical professional be forced to layoff as communities hospital lose their funding.
Since late 2006 285 major U.S. lending operations have "imploded"
http://ml-implode.com/
The Government has reached the Desperation phase. The public is in fear, but then back to denial when the government makes an announcement - whistling past the graveyard. Or whistling while in the graveyard walking past the big hole that is dug in the graveyard, with a big stone next to it already. Or whistling while being diggin the big hole because three guys in suits with guns are telling you to dig. And the stone has your name on it.
Short selling was banned after the crash of 1929. Market still went down to 10% of what it had been.
Post a Comment