September 26, 2008

FLASH: THIS IS NOT A MISPRINT. CALIFORNIA HOME PRICES NOW DOWN 41% YoY, HISTORIC REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE CONTINUES...

From 2005:

"Population and household growth will continue to put pressure on home prices, resulting in greater price appreciation in California compared with the nation."


-Leslie Appleton-Young, California realtors Association "Economist", January 2005

And now today:

California Home Prices Drop Record 41% Amid Defaults

At this point folks, any cheerleading California realtor (Connie De Groot, Tom Adkins, Leslie Appleton-Young, etc) should resign, and legally never be allowed to work as a "financial advisor" again.

Forty one percent down. In 12 months.

41%.

So $1 million overpriced California homes became $590,000 pretty quick. That's a freefall of $34,000 a month if you're keeping score at home. Over $1000 a day. Should have rented folks in CA. And NEVER should have listened to realtors on commission.

It was the P/E stupid. It will always be the P/E stupid.

People all over California, and all over America, will be simply turning in the keys now. It makes no financial sense to keep paying on a mortgage whose balance is nowhere near the value of the asset. Especially loans of the no-or-little-down variety.

It's the banks' problem now. No, actually, it's the taxpayer's problem now.

California Home Prices Drop Record 41% Amid Defaults

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- California home prices tumbled a record 41 percent in August from a year earlier as foreclosure sales pushed down values in the most populous U.S. state.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home fell to $350,140, the lowest since March 2003, and will likely fall further, the Los Angeles-based California Association of Realtors said today in a report. Sales increased 56.7 percent from August 2007 and 1.8 percent from July.

``While sales appear to have turned the corner, the median will experience additional downward pressure as we move into the off-peak season in the coming months, and will continue to face pressure from distressed sales,'' Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist of the association, said in a statement.

Flashback to Appleton-Young's 2006 preso:

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

But damn it. They told me last fall that IT WAS AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BUY!!!

I guess I got pony fucked!

Anonymous said...

My stupid father in law still thinks he is going to make a killing on his house in Fallbrook. He has taken 3 HELOCs out on a POS shack. Oh, he is a flag waving GOP brainwashed fool. He has not been calling much lately, which is a good thing.

Uncommonadvice said...

Is it not the case though that if you hand your keys in it is unlikely that you'll ever get back onto the Housing ladder again?

The Earth's population has trebled in the last 50 years, and will do so again in the next 50 years. A greater proportion than expected will head for "the promised" land of California. This will create massive demand, whilst supply is stifled due to planning regulations and pressure on natural resources.

I therefore predict that California house prices will bounce back to a higher level than ever. The question is not "if" but "when".

P.S. I am not on commission!

Mark in San Diego said...

There are still too many knife catchers out there who still don't get it. . .even if housing falls only another 10%, it will be 10 years before housing outpaces inflation as a good investment (assuming 3% inflation - right). . .unemployment in California is now 7.7% and going up fast - houses are still way above average income to buy - but "investors" never look at fundamentals - just like they thought Pets.com was a good buy at $20!!!

Anonymous said...

Keith, I hope it surprises no one on this blog that prices in Caifornia have dropped so low. And they will continue to drop, until it becomes affordable to buy a house with 20% down and monthly payments not exceeding 30% of income.

Anonymous said...

.


For three years I've been waiting for this.

After all the lies and Bullshit from realtors telling me, I'm making a Big mistake in waiting to buy!

California real estate only goes up!

We've hit bottom!

Prices are on the way back up!

What are you going to do...rent, while others are living the dream of ownership?


Checkmate
.

Miss Goldbug said...

House prices are going to correct big time in the next three months. Its finally happening.

I have been saying this since 2003-but now its finally going to happen.

Look out below!

Anonymous said...

So then why does a condo in San Francisco still costs 600k?


I don't see much housingpanic up here in SF

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

Take a look at 3rd-world countries - where this one is certainly headed if something isn't done quickly.

Masses of people living in slums, while a few wealthy elites live in gated communities.

I live in Huntington Beach, Ca. - which would love nothing more than to be an elite enclave.

It's all so predictable if you just open your eyes wide enough to really see what's going on in this country.


Uncommonadvice said...
Is it not the case though that if you hand your keys in it is unlikely that you'll ever get back onto the Housing ladder again?

The Earth's population has trebled in the last 50 years, and will do so again in the next 50 years. A greater proportion than expected will head for "the promised" land of California. This will create massive demand, whilst supply is stifled due to planning regulations and pressure on natural resources.

I therefore predict that California house prices will bounce back to a higher level than ever. The question is not "if" but "when".

P.S. I am not on commission!

Mike Hunt said...

Is that it?

Wake me up when prices are 70% off the peak and 30% off in the desirable areas (west of 405 in SoCal and in the Bay Area)

-Mike

Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...
My stupid father in law still thinks he is going to make a killing on his house in Fallbrook. He has taken 3 HELOCs out on a POS shack. Oh, he is a flag waving GOP brainwashed fool. He has not been calling much lately, which is a good thing."

Euthanasia.

I hope you haven'y procreated with that gene pool hiding...

David in So Cal said...

no no no.....
real estate doesnt go down here in So Cal, remember, we are different here.

danimal said...

In a presentation on its WaMu acquisition, J.P. Morgan forecast a 58% peak-to-trough slump in California home prices if the U.S. enters a severe recession. In Florida, house prices could fall 64% in such a scenario, while nationwide prices could drop 37%, the bank said.

http://tinyurl.com/4sruks

Anonymous said...

No wonder, all those Mexicans made a truck load of money with mortgage fraud during the housing ponzi scheme. Just imagine how much money the Juarez Cartel was laundering though mortgage fraud in California.

But according to Nancy Pelosi and Feinstein, "they're victims". Hey Californians, what's important is that you have gay marriage and Hollywood celebs.