August 05, 2008

Ready to come out of the shelter? Maybe take a peek?


Fed holding at 2%, printing money

Government bailing out anyone in trouble

Oil, gold and commodities getting routed

Dollar about to strengthen vs. the Euro and Pound

Pessimism at all-time-highs

Hmmmm.....

38 comments:

tabasco said...

Pessimism at all time highs? Uh, not on Wall St, Keith. Check out the VIX, not too much fear out there right now.

Anonymous said...

Phony, made-up stock market rally.

Inflation roaring as elderly turn to dog and cat food.

Families go without health care.

Workers quit jobs too expensive to commute to.

Federal Government continues to say "FUCK YOU" to responsible savers leaves interest rates too low again for too long after bailing out their buddies on Wall Street and Middle East.

Weather system threatens eastern US.

President traveling to attend Olympics...

"As oil falls under $120 and the Dow jumps more than 200 points, the Federal Reserve leaves its key rates unchanged. But the central bank says it won't let inflation get out of control."

Any Grassy knolls in China?

Anonymous said...

Where do you make any money in this crazy time. No money in banks, gold heading down, stocks falling, real estate we all know that story. I'm making good money right now, but where in the hell do you put it?

tabasco said...

anonymous 7:42, google a Dow/Gold Ratio chart. Therein lies your answer.

Anonymous said...

The economy is Jason from Friday the 13th and this is just the point in the movie where everyone thinks he's dead because he has an axe in his forehead, but he's not really dead and is just waiting to jump up and kill them all.

And remember, this is just the first movie and even though you thought he was dead at the end, they somehow managed to come up with 5 more sequels.

Looks like a GREAT time for an invasion.... said...

"Where do you make any money in this crazy time. No money in banks, gold heading down, stocks falling, real estate we all know that story."

Halliburton and anything connected to the Bush Family interests like the middle east oil boys.

The corrupt leaders will come up with another phony disaster to keep their private sector friends ripping off the government.

Looks like a GREAT time for an invasion....

How low do you have to stoop to be a politician in America?

michael said...

it may suck in america but when it sucks in america...

it sucks a hell of alot more elsewhere.

i think it will just be so...until the common chinese citizen rises up against his/her tyrannical governemnt.

THINK about it... said...

"michael said...
i think it will just be so...until the common chinese citizen rises up against his/her tyrannical governemnt."

Replace 'chinese' with "American" and I think you may have a possible solution.

THINK about it...

Mammoth said...

Anon said, "Where do you make any money in this crazy time. No money in banks, gold heading down..."
------------------
GOLD is just on sale right now. I just might buy some more before it spikes up back again.

-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Total headfake. I rode it up with calls, now it's time to start slowly buying LEAP puts every 200-300 pts up. Look at the Jan-Feb chart, it's identical to now. At most the DJIA goes up another 600-800 then straight back down. Since you can't time the top, buy puts all the way up and hold.

This "bottom is in" headfake is even less convincing than in March. Besides oil, there is nothing behind this one. Oil will return to the moon and the dollar will crash, both before the end of 2008.

Anonymous said...

BUY

BUY

BUY

I've been buying up stocks like mad over the last few weeks. Anyone still in cash is a fool. Plain and simple.

Reality said...

IMHO, the stock market will peak around August 15, give or take a few trading days. This rally is on the back of the commodity price drop . . . because the Chinese slowed down buying. Guess what? After the Olympics, the car ban and factory ban (to have clean air around the games) will be lifted . . . the FED is printing up money just as quickly now as it was late last year.

Just remember, the last time the bull flag was waved in May near SPX1450, I mentioned the SPX1200 target, which was hit on the nose on July 15th! This time, I think we will see SPX in the triple digits later this year.

Anonymous said...

GOLD is just on sale right now. I just might buy some more before it spikes up back again.

-Mammoth

======

Replace gold with real estate and you are you become Larry Yun. Buying gold today is the 2nd worst investment. #1.....oil.

keyser soze said...

Dolly, is that you?

tabasco said...

"BUY

BUY

BUY

I've been buying up stocks like mad over the last few weeks. Anyone still in cash is a fool. Plain and simple."

You sir, are the fool. But, there have been alot more foolish things said on this web site, so I won't try to denegrate your statement. Maybe I can be of some help instead. Stocks have been losing to inflation since 2000 and will continue to do so for 5-10 years. Cash is not optimal, but it is better than stocks. Commodities are going through corrections right now, but will be higher two years from now than they are now even if they correct alot further. That will not be the case for stocks or bonds. They will be lower 2 years form now. Gold is the best bet as it acts as a commodity, which is pushed higher by inflation, and it acts as money, which is pushed higher by deflation. Right now, we have both inflation and deflation going on. The money supply is inflating while credit is deflating. To a lay person this can be seen as the price of stuff you need is going up and the price of stuff you want is going down. Think about that for a second and ask yourself, really ask yourself, if that bodes well for the stock market.

Yoski said...

I am mostly in cash right now. Some gold/silver, some consumer staples stock like PG or health care/pharma.
If energy or gold drops much further they're screaming buys. Supply is declining, demand is...who knows in these times.
Stay away from financials, airlines, builders or domestic car manufactures. Many of them won't make it, like Pets.com. They'll all come and ask for a bailout. If Uncle Sam helps his buddies on Wall Street why not fork over a $100 billion to the losers in Detroit or the ailing home builders?

David Lereah said...

Why would the dollar strengthen? Dead cat bounce?

Lady Di said...

I just bought 3 sweet ounces of American Buffalo Gold today.

Gold is going higher and higher just wait. It requires patience.

Gold is the only currency that doesn't lie.

k.w. - Southern Ca. said...

As some may now realize, the "Alt-A" mortgages are in the process of resetting - where more of the bad housing debt is located, as well as with the "Prime" mortgages.

Think it's bad now? ... just wait till more of these "higher income" mortgages start exploding.

We got a long ways to go folks before we hit bottom.

West Coast Willie said...

Vix at 21.00 equals no fear. The fools never learn. It's only been two weeks since Financial Armageddon was being discussed and then Paulson said some stuff, oil dropped mysteriously and everything was fine again.

I'm not buying that fairy tale which is not to say you can't make some money if your quick and skitter in and out.

Anonymous said...

PERHAPS, when it comes to money, we can trust the Scots - a thrifty, dour people not given to excess. And Royal Bank of Scotland's warning that the world as we know it will soon end has come at a time when financial markets are perilously close to another word that dare not be spoken: panic.

The bank has advised clients to brace for a fully fledged crash in share and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," says Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

Anonymous said...

I'm making good money right now, but where in the hell do you put it?

August 05, 2008 7:42 PM

michael said...

it may suck in america but when it sucks in america...

it sucks a hell of alot more elsewhere.

tabasco said...

"BUY

BUY

BUY


interesting quotes....


the other trader

Anonymous said...

Ironically, Iraq's government is running a $79 billion oil surplus. Its just sitting in the Fed's vault.

Anyone remember what happened to Kuwait after gulf war 1?

[NYT] Soaring oil prices will leave the Iraqi government with a budget surplus of as much as $79 billion by year’s end, according to a new report.

George L said...

michael said...

"it may suck in america but when it sucks in america...

it sucks a hell of alot more elsewhere."

not this time around,so I respectfully disagree.even Latin American countries like Chile, Brazil, Colombia and even mexico are doing better in recent years.

Asia? forget about it.the transfer of financial power has started moving in their favor.plus they work to hard to fail,we've become too lazy and too selfish to work for the greater good of the nation.

the rest of the world will be fine but not us...

Andrew Hac said...

And the Great Snapper Turtle rules !

And the Americano are still obese, chomping down the feed trough as ever !

And whomever voted for SHRUBBY are still having their head burying in their kuku !

JOE & JANE rule the Americano nation !!!

Shakster said...

Blogger Mammoth said...

Anon said, "Where do you make any money in this crazy time. No money in banks, gold heading down..."
------------------
GOLD is just on sale right now. I just might buy some more before it spikes up back again.

-Mammoth

August 05, 2008 9:01 PM
----------------------------
-----------------------------
Good one.LOL
So I go to my coin/bullion guy,and size up silver rounds.You betcha it's on sale.
Anyhow I am always amazed at the pullbacks followed by price rises over the last 7 years.like clockwork.I consider myself a "strong hand" albeit small.But that's cool.

Here comes the bill said...

Real estate is not at the bottom because there are still buyers.

Gold and oil can be manipulated by countries.

Consumers hurt by debit and inflation spend less.

The president whos policy gave us this money is on the way out.

Things don't look good from my seat.

All this fun we have had comes at a price.

Familiarize yourself with these terms...

disposable income

trickle down economics

Media driven recession

Low consumer sentiment

stagflation

high unemployment

wage cuts

U-Haul shortage

ghost town

finger pointing

Devestment said...

I see some optimists posting. I think it’s time for a round of “pompous prognosticators of the great depression” for those who are not familiar with it.

http://tinyurl.com/wfxu

Anonymous said...

I said here many times before, more than a year ago: As time approaches for the two oilmen you put into office to get the f-out, oil prices will decline. I also said last year that the oil mafia would go for the kill in 2008 because it was the last year of the two oilmen in office.

You can come up with lots of excuses, like the MSM does, for the increase and decrease of oil prices, but the main reason relies solely in the two oilmen in office.

Check the charts and dates of oil prices and you'll experience the blatant correlation punching you right in the mouth. Wanna bet that oil prices will be back at $80 or less next year?

out of your league said...

Yes pessimism at all time highs....
That's why the market pops with the mildest of positive news.....because of all that pessimism......

You are probably the LAST person to think we're in a pessimistic atmosphere far, far behind Cramer, Bob Brinker, Kudlow.....and you think you're cutting edge....

Anonymous said...

Buy gold. It's cheap at these levels, and will find support at $850-$860. The 50-day moving average is about $860, and a very strong line of defense technically is at $850. The strong lines of defense for silver is $15.30 and $16.30. Most people aren't in gold or silver, but they do have lots of overpriced houses to unload. Every time we get one of these reactions, it represents the low and the best opportunity to buy before the next run.

Bernanke and Paulson will "create money and credit without limit", in their words. "There is no suitable alternative to the US Dollar," says Soros.

To break the back of gold and restore the dollar, Volcker had to raise interest rates north of 20% with real interest rates at about 8%. Right now, real interest rates are negative. Also, the government had to stop inflating the economy. Today, there is so much more debt and we are not a net creditor to the world - we are the biggest debtor. It's simply "inflate or die."

Every bull market climbs a wall of worry. Every bear market slides the bitter slope of hope. Which one is gold in? Which one is housing? Now do you see the difference between housing (clear downtrend) and gold (clear uptrend)?

Anonymous said...

I find it rather interesting that the theory of 'peak oil' started to be ramped up just right after the Bushistas gained power.
Oil has had a tremendous run-up during the past couple of years and you have to also thank the crony countries like Israel and Iran to play the war-monger card to spice things up a bit.
9/11 was an oil field grab, plain and simple. The US can't drill in its own backyard, so the oilmen(women) went and took new fields to exploit.
Will oil head back down below 80/barrel? Who knows...but it sure will be interesting if all this was one big scam...

Maybe we should just all play along and stop worrying. I don't know.

Anonymous said...

freddie mac comes out with higher than expected losses and the market yawns.

that amigos is a very bullish signs. a month or two ago it would have meant a 2% drop. the fact this kind of news is no longer causing people to freak out means the bottom is here.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Devestment said...

"I see some optimists posting. ..."

It's just Karl Rove and the Republican Operatives spreading their disinformation.

Libertarians!!!!

Bow to you Chimperator.

Anonymous said...

Just look at the DOW/S&P charts today. If that's not a sign of market manipulation...Watch for another rally starting at 2 PM, as usual.

IT'S ALL RIGGED!

Devestment said...

Anon. Said…Gold is the only currency that doesn't lie.

I disagree. Gold is a bubble asset that has recently inflated due to popularity. It is purely a store of wealth relative to supply and demand. If demand for cash steps in there will be lots of gold for sale.

As a coin dealer I have met thousands of people who lost on gold and silver by buying in the 80’s and holding out for as much as 20 years before selling. I have noticed a trend in investing. Popular investments reallocate wealth (actual currency); the assets are made popular by artificial demand creation that evaporates at some point leaving the masses holding the bag.

Anon. said…Buy gold. It's cheap at these levels, and will find support at $850-$860. The 50-day moving average is about $860, and a very strong line of defense technically is at $850.

When I see this type of parroted quotation, I feel as if I am reading a post from a Kitco gold forum blog. It is easy to find information that appears valid and technical to support rationalizations that validate seemingly correct intelligent investments.

Fundamentals ultimately drive markets. Gold will have stability when I see headlines that read… Gold, delicious with ketchup! Fountain of youth found in GOLD! Gold, easily converted to unlimited energy! European Union stops dumping gold and starts hoarding! Fort Knox is buying. GOLD, more effective than Viagra!

I can face it. It is another mans game and out of my control. At this point, my odds may be better at Vegas.

Oh, and what was my play? I bought when no one wanted it at $255 and sold all the way up to $1000 starting at $700. We still have reserves but are in them nothing as we have been in the game since 1973.

Anonymous said...

"Wanna bet that oil prices will be back at $80 or less next year?"

I would, but it's kind of hard to make a bet with someone who can't post links to their "predictions".

kilgore said...

XOM at 9.5x trailing earnings, repurchasing 8%+ a year of it's shares, paying a 2.1% dividend, and in spite of all the word about how production is falling, it has replaced it's proven reserves every year for the past 14.

SCREAMING BUY AT $78!!!!!!