“Bye, bye bear market. Say hello to the bull and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”
- Jim Cramer, calling a bottom for stocks (again), July 29, 2008
BONUS: Are you buying, selling or holding?
July 31, 2008
HousingPANIC Quote of the Day
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55 comments:
Sold off 95% of my stocks months ago.
Don't plan on buying in the future except gold stocks- and only when the time is right.
Once you hear about it on T.V. ANYWHERE you know it's probably a bad investment.
Whatever T.V. is selling I'm not buying.
I've been buying for the last 3 months and will continue to do so. Banks stocks at 60-80% off peak is about the best deal ever.
DOW to 9,000 in no time!
Anyone that takes this clown seriously and follows his advice are deserving of the consequences. It's not as if he isn't a known shill for his IB buddies. His (ahem) track record speaks for itself.
Google his top ten list for 2000. Nuff' said.
Cramer is the devil. Not to mention he is wrong on everything! EVERYTHING! I started noticing he was wrong so much that I actually started to listen to him just to see what his predictions were compared to reality. I must say, if you listen to him you are truly a fool. I can flip a coin and be right 80% more of the time. Where did this loser get his credentials? Probably bangs realtors on the side as well..... Connie, oh Connie..... Where are you at?
Currently holding in my stock free position, I sold it all last fall. I don't feel like I have any idea what's going on there, so I'd rather put my money in things that I understand.
Didn't Cramer say not too long ago that Bear Stearns was "fine".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8
Do the opposite of what Jim Cramer says and you'll make a fortune.
That's a screaming SELL SELL SELL if ever I saw one.
Looking at some good FOREIGN utility, pipeline, oil/gas, agriculture and infrastructure companies (that pay dividends)
Placing rediculously low bids with good to fill limit orders.
Like so many other things, the stock market today is not what it pretends to be. Stock trading is not an investment, it's a GAMBLE.
In some ways, it's worse than Vegas since you have no idea what the rules are on Wall Street. At least in Vegas (if they're not cheating) you know the odds.
From a rational viewpoint, it makes no sense to buy a stock that pays little or nothing in dividends and will never pay a significant dividend.
If any income is always plowed back into the company and paid out as salaries, bonuses to officers, etc., there's never any money for stockholders.
This, however, describes most stocks on Wall Street.
If everyone had a concurrent, rational moment and realized they were never going to get anything back from a stock purchase (ever!) no one would buy this garbage. I'd hate to be holding a lot of stock if that day ever comes.
It's only the "Greater Fool" phenomenon that keeps this charade going. This also describes the recent housing bubble. As we've seen, there's a big problem when the last Fool is used up.
Sure, a bear market rally and Cramer is already calling the retards to get fleeced by his crooked friends from Wall Street.
I laugh when the market rallies based on the stinky earnings. Hellooooo??? Those earnings are based on low expectations. It's like your son had straight A's for a few years and now you expect him to get an F but he delivers D.
Cramer and Kudlow are more discredited than Bush, Obama, Keith Olbermann, Chis Matthews, Adkins, and Norman all together.
Cramer is going after Bushco's record of an unbroken string of 8 years of wrong and disasterous decisions.
Cramer should be fed to a large pit of hungry alligators on Live TV.
Cramer is a Bad Joke and another invention of windsor-knot crowd of MSM.
Kill your TV.
The economy grew at 2.9%. With inflation at least 5.0% that's only a -2.1% growth rate. Buy Buy Buy!
I actually kind of feel sorry for Cramer...what am I saying?!
I hope he becomes the poster boy of false illusions. Lucky for him...modern skyscraper windows can't be opened...
Every time this question has been broached for a year now on any blog or Marketwatch etc. people have chimed in to say they are buying.
These people are clearly perma bulls and would have been fully invested this time last year.
So, ahem, where are they getting the money?! Seeing as how everything they've touched for a year now has been savaged where is the magic money tree? HELOCS - gone, Credit Cards - gone.
There is only one choice left and that is that they are talking their book and lying. I call BS on anyone that says they are buying now unless I see a broker statement.
To the anonymous (why is every dumb comment from an anonymous?) guy who is buying bank stocks I would like to recommend two screaming buys right now: WM and WB.
Good luck.
Holding on the stocks I bought a few months ago; rebuilding cash reserves in the meantime.
To quote the movie Apocolypse Now: Some day this war's gonna end.
Cramer could be right -- if we only look at the dollar value of shares. As inflation kicks in they will rise accordingly. Relative to other currencies and gold, share prices will reflect the reality of a falling dollar and faltering U.S. economy.
Jim Cramer is the new Ms. Cleo (the TV psychic for those of you not stateside). . ."for entertainment purposes only."
This is the guy that said 5.00 gas for the summer on NBC Nightly News a few weeks ago and said high oil was here to stay and then he flips and says the opposite.
He said don't buy home prices last fall on the TODAY show and just recently he said BUY now! Every idiot knows housing hasn't bottomed yet. In fact, I read an article the other day that said Cramer's tirade on STOP TRADING, you know the one where he said the FED was asleep, provided the catalyst for the FED to lower rates. I mean come on, did the FED really listen to Cramer? What in the hell is wrong with America's politics? Why does the media have so much control and influence over the message? I mean they no longer report the message, they make and shape the message.
If you listen to Cramer for investment advice, you're nuts! Of course Cramer has to keep up appearances of being manic, that is the way CNBCNBCUniversal, his book publishers and the street.com market him. Don't fall for the marketing. Look for investment advice with substance, not flashing bolts of lightning and MAD MAD MADNESSS!!!!
By my count this is the third bottom Cramer's called this year. Effect on my asset allocation is the same as the last two: none.
Sticking with a diverse mix of assets, including stock indexes. If stocks really tank (think 1000 on the S&P) I'd be tempted to move more cash into stocks. At some point holding cash is going to be a losing strategy as the government inflates and taxes it away. Anyone claiming to know for sure how to avoid that, e.g. with foreign currencies, commodities, may just be leading the charge into the next bubble for all I know.
P.S. Owning a house is looking like a safe haven right now. Whatever else happens the value won't go to zero. House prices in my area aren't down anywhere near what the stock market is down. And my fixed-rate mortgage is a nice short on the long bond. If we do get runaway inflation, owning tangible assets while being short long-term debt will look better and better.
I've concluded some time ago that stocks are 20% performance and 100% hype. People like Cramer only confim my conclusion.
Bye, bye Housing Panic!
I'm still buying gold. Wake me when the Dow/Gold ratio hits 5, then maybe the stock market is near a bottom and gold is near a top. Right now, though, the Dow/Gold ratio is at 12.5, so we got a ways to go for both.
Dream on Cramer!
Got out of the market last year - in mostly cash, some foreign currency, some commodities - dollar cost averaging in physical gold and silver - have been for a long time.
If I can't touch it, I don't want to buy it.
The DOW will go lower, just wait...
Bought some stocks at the last drop about 1 month ago and sold last week for a 30% pop. Still holding some shares that I bought in May that dropped and are near parity. I will wait till this goes slightly positive (hopefully) and sell before the next major downturn / crash. This is a repeating 'W' shaped pattern (a la GWB) and there will be some bad news within the next few months that will drive things down, big time. Buy low, sell high and keep your powder dry.
-Mike
A Long Term Investment Timing Signal That Works
http://ticker-classics.denninger.net/archives/4-A-Long-Term-Investment-Timing-Signal-That-Works.html
"This is a very simple timing signal that requires no more than 2 minutes a week to monitor and yet if you followed it over the last 20 years it has produced very few whipsaws and on balance has had you out of the market for all major bear trends and in the market for all major bull trends.
The use of this strategy is simplicity itself - you buy the SPY (or a S&P 500 mutual fund such as VFINX) when the 20 week moving average crosses the 50 week moving average by more than 1%, and you go to cash (or treasuries) when the 20 week moving average crosses the 50 week moving average in the downward direct by more than 1%."
Pretty interesting.
My real beef is that we are now a nation of liars in total. For example, everyday on Bloomberg if the futures index for the DOW is in negative territory and all bad news is posted for the opening bell; right before 9:30AM a dose of "Good economic news" is put together to place it in positive territory.
Then various economists chime in and say "all is well" and the DOW goes up 100 points. As the day goes on the bad news continues to come in and it dips below the starting line for the day. Then, an afternoon "rally" shows up around 1:30PM to 3:30PM due to some rumors or promises of positive news which never pan out to be true or are "reassessed" downward later. "We really did not mean it". Anyway, the market is not to be trusted. No hawker like Cramer will ever make me believe everything is OK or "we have hit bottom."
Even Looney Realtors are back on the positive spin saying that the new bailout will revitalize the industry and bring hungry customers into the home buying realm. Are they nuts? The problem is and always has been prices. They cannot be supported at the level that is being asked. People can't pay without signing up for years of debt beyond any day of really owning the property. The facts are people die, they get sick and they lose their jobs. High mortgages and high prices almost guarantee the stress to make a homeowner keel over from nervous anxiety these days.
The government is concerned about taxes at the local and state levels. They don't want prices to come down because they want to fill the coffers with tax based on the upward pricing of the last few years. In Haddon Heights New Jersey some houses went from 10K to 20K overnight in tax. Who wants to give that up. What a cash cow this would be. The problem is that most of the homes are not owned by new rich living in luxury. The homes are full of seniors who struggle with part time jobs just to pay the 10K. Now you present them with a bill of 20K and expect that they won't put the home up for sale?
Bernake also lowered the interest rates on seniors who had CDs that used to pay for the tax. Add to that the cost of everything going up in an inflationary period and well, seniors will go down, no doubt about it. Here is a little secret for you: There are not enough rich young couples out there to buy into this mess. They don't have the money and most are still living with mommy and daddy because they can't get full time work or benefits.
Stocks are always purchased by greater fools. The only payout is when another greater fool comes along and buys it from you. Dividends are minuscule to non-existent.
The whole 401k thing flooded the market with greater fools for decades...and now those fools need their money back to retire...and suddenly there aren't enough fools with enough money to buy the stock at a higher price...so the old fools keep working, and the new fools stay stuck in the lower paying jobs.
A ponzi scheme, just like housing.
Expect to see the resurgence of privatization of social security in the coming decade...except contributions will be compulsory, and tied to a government-picked group of companies.
I wouldn't be surprised to see compulsory home purchases, either. When China and Japan quit lending to our government, all manner of craziness that has been papered over will burst forth.
We are staring down the barrel of Socialism or Fascism, depending on which of our political parties can shift the most blame. Our barely living democracy will not survive this...except maybe in the form Zimbabwe has.
It's gonna be Jesusland uber alles, or the Greenshirt collective.
I have to say, I'm grateful to have lived through the peak years...though I'm not looking forward to what's coming.
Oh, we're in a bull market alright. I've never seen so much bullshit in my life.
I just love how optimistic Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow are. They are gems of the financial media. Truly awesome. Remember folks, those who short America in the end lost while those who bet long on America will win.
Right now we are in the doom and gloom phase. Don't worry my fellow Americans. We will come out stronger than before.
Our nation is a beacon of light and freedom for the entire world. We will prevail and come out stronger and better.
anyone want to buy some potash stock.That looks like screaming buy cause cramer is the man.
I heard that cramer got caught banging erin burnett somewhere on the cnbc set.Cocaine kudlow found erin on her knees.Monica would be proud.
Buying: Resources related stocks. Gold miners and oil/gas researchers. Foreign companies recommended by Peter Schiff. Foreign currencies via MERKX.
Selling: Anything related to the American consumer.
Sold almost all my stocks a month ago except oil (CVX) and natural Gas (WMB).
"Banks stocks at 60-80% off peak is about the best deal ever."
Funny, that's the same argument my broker used on me to sell me tech stocks in the summer of 2000.
This isn't a "bear" market or a question of a percentage here or a percentage there:
THIS IS PERMANENT SOCIETAL CHANGE
Jim Cramer also said this, published in Rocky Mountain News on Tuesday 7/29/08:
Worried depositors need reasurance:
What we need right now is a president who comes out and says that the federal government will not allow any deposits to fall no matter what the size. And that the country will not let bank failures get in the way of the housing recovery that will be generated by
the Bank of America-Wachovia-Wells Fargo relief bill.
We need people to believe that savings deposits are protected. Why do I say this? Because when you add up the two nothing banks that went under this weekend with Indiymac's collapse, it is increasingly clear that the FDIC is going to run out of money and it will cause a panic.
So if I were the Treasurey secretary, I would focus on the soon-to-be broken bank. That will keep confidence from cracking further.
My comment: how does it feel to want, Jim?
Aside from that, you can't have it both ways Jimbo. You can't tell the truth as above, and then expect people to turn around and ignore it and act as though it will be business as usual any minute now, and we can go ahead and 'bottom-fish'..
This is unprecendented, and I don't see the fix. I see TPTB buying time any way they can, to see if they can figure out a real repair, but there isn't one. Credit isn't going to be there, and credit is what created demand. Ergo, no demand, no big profits, no leveraging,no new credit, more defaulting in all areas. Tell me where the fix might be?
grandma pkk
So we're to ignore today's 200-point drop in the Dow?
NOW are we at the bottom, Jim?
Cramer and Kudlow are more discredited than Bush, Obama, Keith Olbermann, Chis Matthews, Adkins, and Norman all together.
___
Most semi-intelligent people know that, but why do people still listen to them?
Darwinian processes will take their toll on these morons soon enough.
Anonymous said...
"Banks stocks at 60-80% off peak is about the best deal ever."
Funny, that's the same argument my broker used on me to sell me tech stocks in the summer of 2000.
July 31, 2008 9:13 PM
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rriiiiight because wachovia, wells fargo and bofa are just like pets.com
try again
anonymous said...
"rriiiiight because wachovia, wells fargo and bofa are just like pets.com"
No they are worse. Pets.com did not have on their balance sheets hundreds of billions of bad loans.
Want to buy some Indymac stock?
You would be better off buying a "Magic 8 Ball" at ToysRUs for $10 than listening to that baboon jabbering.....
Whatever he says...DO THE OPPOSITE!!!
This is the best call by Cramer since Dick's Sporting Goods.
rriiiiight because wachovia, wells fargo and bofa are just like pets.com
And where is Cisco today douchebag??? Still way off it's 2000 highs.
Some of those banks will be joining Pets.com in stock heaven shortly
Cramer please take your meds!
" Banks stocks at 60-80% off peak is about the best deal ever."
Some as with Pets.com, right?
going long stocks in gold (CEF), silver, agricultural commodities, mining, steel, coal, oil, brazil index, and foreign currencies
Buying WAMU when it hits around $2.75/share.
PANIC=time to buy.
rriiiiight because wachovia, wells fargo and bofa are just like pets.com
Don't drag pets.com down to the level of Wachovia, have some respect.
Buying for short term trades foreign infrastructure/gold mining stocks, alternative energy (solar-ESLR), and thats about it.
Staying away from financials, although at the right price there could be some good short-term buys. I trade in increments of around 10% gains then sell. The market is too crazy to buy and hold.
In the middle of July, when BAC was $18 and C was $14, Cramer came on Mad Money and told everyone to sell ALL financials. Can you imagine all the widows and neophytes who followed his advice into the poor house? He is not to be trusted.
Rule #1 of investing: No one, and I mean NO ONE, gives a rat's ass about your money....except you.Do not succumb to the soothing voice of your stockbroker or financial advisor, nor their brilliant track record
As I've been saying for months, I like BAC below $30 and C below $20...for the LONG TERM. So far, so good...but remember Rule #1.
Selling gold. It's had a wonderful run in the last 10 years and now "everyone knows" you should buy some gold.
Selling some international stocks, but still buying in my 401(k). This is more of a rebalancing act, but internationals have been on a tear and are another thing "everyone knows" about.
Holding Cisco. I bought in batches in 2002 as it went from $15 to $10 and back to $15 again. At a 75% profit in 6 years, I can't complain. Also, I think there is still room for growth with companies like Cisco because of the technology growth in developing countries.
Buying good dividend payers monthly, like oil tankers and BDCs. I hold and dollar-cost average, and almost all of the stocks are dividend payers. Most of them average 8-10%/year dividend payout and hold roughly the same price over the long term.
2 years ago I bought a car for cash with proceeds from the sale of stock. I took out what I put in over 6 years, cost basis. Two years' worth of contributions were left in the account, representing dividends and price gains. In my opinion, to make money in the market you have to actually take some cash out now and then, wipe the slate and start fresh.
I am currently considering a shift to home builders and banks once the fat is clearly out. There's still room to go, IMO.
Cramer is a shoe scorpion. Kudlow is a pinstripe trouser snake.
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