Hmmmm.. maybe we're seeing a new tact from the REIC - just deny, deny, deny.
I give them credit though for somehow producing charts that somehow manage to not show the crash. That takes some real skill (or bad numbers). But they're pretty. Too bad reality isn't so pretty.
Feel free to send them a nice note here
July 09, 2008
Here's a hilarious video from some "mortgage professionals" denying the housing bubble & crash, advising people to "stop listening to the doomsayers"
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22 comments:
"preaching doom and gloom"?
It's called reporting
he doesn't mention that most of the real price gains of the last 40-50 years (his timeframe) are due to a shift from one income per household to 2 incomes and from extending loan terms from 5-10 years to 30-40 years. (The nominal gains over the real gains are inflation of course).
I would call them "clueless" but that was so deceptively presented that I'm sure that they know better.
OF course, it comes from the overpriced and overrated Westchester county, NY. The decline is coming, face it!
I saw an annotation on one of the charts, they are using OFHEO data & not Case-Shiller data. The problem w/ OFHEO data is that it only captures housing sales that use conforming loans for their purchase. So their charts are not capturing some of the significant drops. Add to this a little graphical manipulation as to how you present data & you can make it look like there are no huge swings (or the opposite).
I laughed at one point when they accused the MSM sky is falling reporting as contributing to the housing crash and how its just to gain ad revenue. Don't realtwhores do the same sort of thing (namely lie, cheat, manipulate and ignore reality) to get a 6% commission?
I love how he blames "inexperienced" buyers and lenders for the massive bubble in some regions -- but not real estate brokers or the NAR. Seriously, listen to what he says.
Nope, the salesman were the voice of reason, urging these crazy buyers and greedy banks to STOP THE INSANITY. If only we'd listened.
A little off subject, but a great read about the economics of oil form an oilman:
http://tinyurl.com/5pjl4o
Waaaaa....Waaaaa....This bubble talk has got to stop so I can get more cash to buy more stuff!!! Waaaaa...Waaaaaaaaa
RE is local & I demand a new Beemer!!!
Waaaaa...WAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
CORNY! but, overall not a bad presentation.
So, what he's saying is, that you should wait a while longer, because the trend is going to be down for a few more years... got it. thanks real estate expert.
you got to read their 25 reasons why the bubble theory does not fly..
#25 takes the cake..because houses are homes, there is no bubble..lol..
Perhaps if everyone were preaching how "fantastic it is to start buying", prices will stabilize and more houses (overpriced shacks) will start selling again.
All the rosy preaching in the world won't save housing - it's headed down *until* it makes sense to commit to a sensible home loan once again.
First the narrator correctly makes the case that real estate is cyclical and that pull backs in pricing are normal. But then he goes on to blame a biased media, "gloom and doomers", for creating the pull backs and tells us not to listen to them. So which is it? Are pull backs normal or media created (of course we know the answer)? We also know that the recent run up in prices was so extreme that this pull back will also be extreme, not to mention long lasting. No where in the video does he mention that. Talk about bias in reporting, what a hypocrite this guy is.
The video has gone missing. Do you have another link?
Only one way to cure this housing crash and that is for sellers to do the unthinkable. That is, come out from the cold and the denial stage and admit their home isn't worth what it was at the peak of the bubble in 2006.
Flipping real estate for a quick profit is over! Maybe a seller will get lucky and lure in a knife catcher, but not likely. Banks are no longer willing to finance a property with a negative cash flow after debt service. It's just that simple. Even in the wealthiest areas banks are requiring as much as 50% equity from the buyer.
The quicker we get homes sold and get the inventory down the better off we'll be.
If I'm a realtor I would not take a listing with a seller at some high price that just isn't going to happen. Realtors need to help themselves by informing their sellers to be realistic about a selling price. Of course we all want the highest price we can get but it's time to be realistic!
HP is here to stay (especially with an "Attitude Problem" which I love) as long as sellers continue the denial. And, HPers like myself will continue to post and hopefully keep someone from getting hurt financially trying to buy someone else's home that just isn't worth the price.
If you have to buy a home for whatever makes you warm and fuzzy, make sure it can cash flow positive. If it can't don't buy!
Good luck everyone!
VOTE OBAMA and he will give everyone a free house. Problem solved.
DOPES
Even in the wealthiest areas banks are requiring as much as 50% equity from the buyer.
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On what planet? I have friend who works for BofA and he told me 95% and even 100% (rare though) financing is still widely available to those with good credit. You're right the days of anyone with a pulse walking away with $750K mortgage is over. But people with good income, good credit are still able to get loans with no issues.
with the dow going down to 8000 in a few weeks housing will drop another 90% with no buyers in site
then a few months after the chaos we can and will rebuild again
I couldn't watch more than a minute or 2.
It occurred to me though that the greater lengths that a person goes to for the purpose of deceipt, the more culpable the person is.
Not sure what made me think of that.
The criminal mortgage broker that made the video didn't remove the video, only disallowed the embedded use on other sites.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv6PzsxnGFM&e
Here's the link to the video. Note how he censors comments. 610 views and zero comments, about a major current event? Unlikely.
I guess he never heard the phrase, "Historical performance does not guarantee future results."
I agree a lot can be learned from history, but he's twisting this logic the wrong way. He's dismissing Japan and 1929 and only using favorable history where declines are short.
He talks about fundamentals. One main fundamental is that the median house should cost no more than 3.5 times median income for the area.
ONE PERSONS DOOMSAYER IS ANOTHERS RELEIVER SAYING THAT THERE WILL BE AN AFFORDABLE HOMESTEAD TO BE HAD WITHOUT HAVING TO OVERSTRESS ONES LIFE IN THE OBTAINING AND KEEPING OF , NOR REQUIRING THE SALE OF ONESELF INTO SLAVERY./////////////////SORRY.................
2.5 times median income........
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