June 04, 2008

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Isn't it funny, and yet kinda sad, when idiot realtors-on-commission try to call "bottom" on the US housing market by pointing at TRANSACTIONS, versus PRICES?

Bottom line: REALTORS don't care about you. REALTORS don't care about real people suffering real financial pain due in part to the horrific advice offered by REALTORS.

All they care about is their f*cking commission check.

Shameful.

And never to be trusted again.

24 comments:

stinky pinky said...

All a REALTOR that picks a lot of bottoms gets is stinky fingers.

patrickthemediocre said...

I'm guessing the picture of the bloodhound is a reference to Swann's site, especially since Swann made some weird post yesterday about how wonderful May in Phoenix was for real estate.

What caught my eye was some claim about there being a huge reduction in housing inventory in May. I'm having trouble figuring that one out, in all honesty. Just doesn't make sense. And if anyone else who read the entry and could explain what the heck an "implied absorption rate" is I'd be much obliged.

Hey, at least Swann is back talking real estate and not shilling some seminar half inspired by Tony Robbins, half by Tinkerbell.

keith said...

Swanndive must be sick of eating ramen. He may be hitting bottom but Phoenix is nowhere close. It's called supply and demand with our little friend "price", and you'll know bottom when you see capitulation. Maybe we should send an Econ 101 book his way, or Manias, Panics and Crashes...

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0514biz-resales0514.html

Valley-wide, the median home price decreased from $265,000 in April 2007 to $210,000, according to the report.

John Foltz, president of Realty Executives Phoenix, said changes in sales activity and price were more drastic in relatively new neighborhoods because some prospective buyers were afraid to purchase homes in those communities a year ago. But that shock and fear has begun to ease its way down a long path toward acceptance and optimism, he said.

"Markets are driven by psychology, and psychology doesn't change in one month," Foltz said.

Anonymous said...

Swann can't even get his house sold

Paul E. Math said...

"Markets are driven by psychology, and psychology doesn't change in one month," Foltz said.

Sure, psychology effects the market in the short term. But in the long term it's all about the fundamentals. And no, psychology is not a fundamental. That would be incomes and rents.

Paul E. Math said...

Oh, and I believe that the reason that transactions have risen is because the figure they quote includes the transactions that are registered when the bank repossesses the house.

Foreclosure starts with notices of default and then, finally, when the bank takes the property back, a transaction is recorded. This is why when you search foreclosed homes on zillow you will always see that the last transaction on the property was relatively recently.

So a rise in transactions is actually a very bad thing when this is the case because all those homes are on the market.

Ohio Loan Officer said...

During 1930 & 1931 there were days when the Stock Market had great rallys. Everyone said the Bear Market was over and it was time to buy again. Then it would drop more.

We'll see positive upticks in Existing and New Home Sales. But as soon as that news hits the waves, thousands of more sellers will flood the market thinking "Finally I can sell this dump". That will bring prices down further.

It's going to be a long drawn out process.

Anonymous said...

If transactions is the game, then you can certainly count all the homes being transferred back to the bank...

This method did wonders for Jay Butler didn't it?

Bloodhounds have a short life compared to other breeds...

Dopes!

US is DEAD said...

Nice picture of John McCain.

gutless and lazy nails it again said...

REALTORS are sales people. ALL sales people are whores for money. It's just what they are. I guess you never worked in a sales organization Keith. Sales people are manipultors, not managers. Greed motivated, not ethics based. Slim balls, not humans. Agains, REALTORS are sales people ... you know... SCUM.

Redfish said...

Paul E Math is right on the mark with the comment about market fundamentals. We're following data in 286 markets around the country, and agree that the transaction discussion is affected by bank repo activity in most markets, but not all. BTW, we agree that Phoenix has a long way to go.

Just Ask Hillary... said...

Transactions are not necessarily sales, Just like:

Popular votes DO NOT equal delegates. Delegates get you elected.

Properly structured sales with legitamate buyers and legitamate financing equals SALES where money changes hands (not debt being reshuffled) equal income, commission, taxes, etc. All usually good.

Popular votes without delegates just put you $ 20 million in debt and you become a loser and a has-been beggar.

Just Ask Hillary...

(Maybe Hillary can become a REALTOR next? She certainly qualifies on the ethical scale, has plenty of pantsuits, etc...)

Thus endeth the lesson.

Anonymous said...

"Bottom line: REALTORS don't care about you. REALTORS don't care about real people suffering real financial pain ..."

Does anybody care about you? Does anybody care about real people suffering anything? How old are you, anyway? You seem to be afflicted with this "Everyone must care about everything" issue. That usually goes away sometime in your 20s.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

I find it amusing that "The Opus," the sequel to "The Secret," is being premiered in Scottsdale, Arizona, which has an unusually large group of people (especially realtors) who worship "The Secret" like a cult.

I wonder how many ramen meals they'll have to skip to buy the $20 DVD and try to "attract" all the easy money they used to make in 2005 .... LOL

Anonymous said...

You know Swann ain't eating these days

Anonymous said...

Bob Toll in a Conf sponsored by JPMOrgan today declared that housing was in a Depression & that its the worst he's seen since the mid 70's and that we've got 2-3 years before recovery!!

Jennifer said...

I hope all the realtors choke on their monkey kibble.

Anonymous said...

>>>>>the figure they quote includes the transactions that are registered when the bank repossesses the house.<<<<<

DING DING DING - we have a winner!

Every week I have an agent sending me the spin that the market is turning around in Phoenix. It's a buyer's market. Hurry or you'll miss out. Everyone thinks we are hitting bottom, but AltA mortgages are due to peak/reset very soon. Phoenix and Scottsdale are going to PLUMMET! This will take years to play out here.

Anonymous said...

That dog looks better than McCain but is smarter than Obama

Anonymous said...

Markets at times can be driven by psychology ,but usually markets are driven by the peoples ability to afford the product . Easy credit and delayed payment loans also create markets that would usually not exist .

We had a lot of Americans who had no intentions on paying the loan they took out and they were just using leverage (loaned money)to get appreciation .

Anonymous said...

NOT all realtors dont care about their clients. Who are you to be so quick to judge the rest of us who put our clients interest first? i'm an agent, and i say you are DEAD wrong.

Majority of Realtors out there made tons of money ripping people off. I agree. But not every realtor are money-eating.

Kisses from HP Land said...

" Anonymous said...
NOT all realtors dont care about their clients. Who are you to be so quick to judge the rest of us who put our clients interest first? i'm an agent, and i say you are DEAD wrong"

No you ARE delusional AND Wrong too, and soon 6%ers like YOU will be DEAD. You are obsolete and unwanted except by truly stupid and incompetent boobs.

I can't imagine you read much, but have you heard about the recent court ruling on the MLS-internet conection? - I didn't think so.

All Realtors, oops I mean REALTORS are shit-eating scum.

Especially, and that goes DOUBLE for the righteous ones, like YOU.

Give David and Larry our Regards. I hear they are interviewing at McDonalds next week...

Ramen Power!

GoodGuy said...

As a Realtor I am taking offense here....okay people let's look at this...we have what a banking/credit crisis...brought on by....what??? People that were put into bad loan products...now let's see who does the loan products..that is right Mortgage brokers. Not Realtors...Loan products that were not right for the buyer...Zero down, Arms where the buyer did not understand the implications of what they were doing. Now the Mortgage broker I am sure you understand works on commission. They make the same or MORE than the Realtor because the get paid on the backside of the loan...by time they get to the Realtor we get a pre-approved buyer and show the homes and prepare the contracts..I have talked till I am blue in the face many times to buyers and they want to max themselves out. I have walked away from three deals where young couples wanted to do 125% loans and said if they wanted to go bankrupt they could do it without me. I have about six months reserves for my family. My mortgage broker on the other hand in his own words has about a million dollars of CASH..and drives a 100k car...and I am a top producer..but see I have been selling most of my clients homes for free for the last year helping the out because I am at Remax and since I pay a desk fee I can do that..We pay the other agent I get nothing...so this is crap. I work for the medical center in my area and I am highly respected and trusted with the doctors. I just told a doctor NOT to build a million dollar house because I didn't think it was a safe time. I could have taken the money and ran. Money that I really could use for my family. So shame on you all. There are a few good people and a LOT of really scary people in my business shit half of them don't know what the forms say but that is your fault for not picking out the best.

Anonymous said...

Goodguy: as a Realt.. er, REALTOR, it doesn't surprise me one iota that you are so quick to blame everything on the mortgage guys. Like you weren't part of the corrupt runup at all. Let me ask you this: without the criminally easy access to insane credit, how do you reckon you and your fellow 6%ers were able to do so well selling houses over the past five years? Or did you only ever work with clients who put 20% down on a fixed rate 30-year mortgage (yeah, right)?

One hand washes the other, my friend... as it ever was.

REALTORS, always pointing the finger of blame somewhere else...