May 13, 2008


Stocks aren't houses.

Fed pumping up the next bubble?

Government cash raining down.

Moral hazard be damned.


Edgar Alpo said...

They will not be happy until every last dollar is safely offshore.

Roccman said...

Next bubble Keith?

Privatize war.

Believe it.

Anonymous said...

Buying all dips

Mammoth said...

Methinks that the bulls are going to begin stampeding downhill soon.

After the downward trend, plus a lot of volatility in the first few months of this year, the market somehow managed to climb up out of the gloom despite all the bad economic news. What gives?

Someone once quoted on HP, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

Nevertheless, I believe that the economic malaise is finally sinking into the American psyche, and that the markets are going to start reflecting it despite the best efforts of the PPT.

- Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Nice change in sentiment Keith. A month or 2 ago you were talking about a worldwide crash in stocks. Now it's a new bubble. Way to be consistent.

Bubbles, Crashes & Manias. Its' all there sheeple. said...

The Bushco-Cheneyburton team is working its remarkable charm on the next set of ponzi victims: namely stock market 'investors'.

Bubbles, Crashes & Manias. Its' all there sheeple.

You Been Warned. Take heed. Or Else you be livin in da gutter bitch. Or worse, in Modesto or Stockton in a foreclosed exerb crack shack.


Anonymous said...

As soon as you pull your money out of your safe places and put it back into the market, they will pull the rug out from under you once again. Wash, rinse and repeat. And, when they have finally made all their money and there is no meat left on the bones of the US - they will pull it out completely and finally shift it all to China.

keith said...

Go back and read your HP - been saying Bernanke is trying to inflate a new bubble since he started slashing rates

Bubble to bubble to bubble

He did a fine job with commodities and HP'ers did great there. And now it's time, I believe, for stocks - not indexes, but well-chosen non-REIC stocks

That said, one big scary monster can come out of its cage real quick. Countrywide failing? Fannie Mae admits the truth?

I don't know where the stock market will go day to day and really don't care that much. But for stock pickers who do their research, look at the fundamentals and want to pick up some good companies that are undervalued, the pickings are ripe

Kind of like condos in Miami and Phoenix right now. If you do your research, wait for your price, there's probably one or two that you could actually pick up and have positive cash flow on from day one, in good areas with good solid future prospects.

But you have to do your research.

Meanwhile, when it comes to stocks, I've been buying and will keep buying

And no, stocks are not houses. "Stocks are up so house prices will stop falling" has been a common troll argument here, and we all know how that one turned out.

Anonymous said...

Who kidnapped Keith?

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure where you're seeing bull market.

Hmmm...Dow is -75 right now, HP just lost $16 billion market value in the same day of its merger fiasco that cost $13 billion. S&P YTD = -5%; DOW YTD = -4%; NAS YTD = -6%. And the market has been trading sideways most of the time, as the PPT doesn't want to let it go.

How will the companies come up with good earnings in the coming months is a mystery, since the American consumer is dead and so are exports. No housing ATM, no flips, no ponzi schemes, nor IPOs, no Sivs or CDOs, no loans, high unemployment, half of Wall Street is laid-off, automakers closing plants everywhere, even Toyota sales are collapsing, states are bankrupt and cutting jobs, oil at $125, even Wal-Mart is pessimistic, etc, etc, etc.

Hoowee, oh yeah, that sounds like a bull market to me. Nothing but a sucker's rally so the crook traders can fleece the sheep. Keep on buying stocks because you'll lose your shirts. When you lose your shirts, then I'll start buying.

Anonymous said...

Kind of like condos in Miami and Phoenix right now.

Suuuure. You're going to be the only tenant paying HOA for the entire building until the developer goes bankrupt, since most condos there are empty and blacklisted by all lenders. Have you seen the rip-off property cost for buyers who are ineligible for Homestead? If you buy a condo in Miami now, you'll be losing a ton of money, especially if a Hurricane reaps through next season.

For that kind of huge risk, you should demand an extraordinary CAP Rate, which, as of now, makes the investment totally inviable.

mickeyc said...

Anyone buying on dips right now is looking for a headache.
The VIX closed lower than it is now for only four days in October last year (remember October - wheee there is no problem!!)
The last time it was this low (those four days nothwithstanding)?
July last year - pre crunch.
Generally I believe you're right - there is almost a desperation to push up stock prices. Specifically now you're dead wrong: prices are heading down soon.
Anyway, I'm on record. The portfolios as always will tell the story.

keith said...

Don't forget - I'm an optimist who simply saw what was coming

Housing has been destroyed. REIC and bank stocks have been destroyed. The dollar has been destroyed.

But I'm not a perma-bear. There are companies out there that need to be bought. Great companies with great products that will do just fine for years to come.

You know who they are. So go buy 'em.

Anonymous said...

Keith come on man, go back to your own archives of Jan/Feb. You were talking about a meltdown. And now all of a sudden you have 'been buying and will continue to buy'? Either you were dead wrong then or are dead wrong now. And if you are buying now you sure as hell should have been buying 2-3 months ago at 15% less than what you're paying now.

You have no credibility on this issue and sound like Larry Yun spinning.

Anonymous said...

You know who they are. So go buy 'em.
wm, cfc ? :)

Anonymous said...

Hmmm...Dow is -75 right now, HP just lost $16 billion market value in the same day of its merger fiasco that cost $13 billion. S&P YTD = -5%; DOW YTD = -4%; NAS YTD = -6%. And the market has been trading sideways most of the time, as the PPT doesn't want to let it go.

Factor in the 5% inflation and the market is down double digits

Anonymous said...

Hmmm...Dow is -75 right now, HP just lost $16 billion market value in the same day of its merger fiasco that cost $13 billion

Good Gawd, just how rich are you Keith????

Anonymous said...

I'm optimistic about the US dollar, but I think the stock market might go down since a lot of people will probably need to pull out money to pay off their debts, or retire.

Anonymous said...

Who kidnapped Keith?


He said this blog "may" be no longer under his control, just may be true!?

keith said...

I think most of you were wise to be out of the market or cautious so far this year (or to be short REIC stocks)

And now I think it'd be smart of you to do your research and buy stocks that have good P/E ratios, good earnings, good dividends, good products and services and good future prospects

Time to deploy some of that cash for buy-and-hold stocks from around the world

Anonymous said...

Keith (AKA Kudlow's bitch),

US stocks are worthless. Corporations are loaded to the gills in short term debt and have shitty investments in China and all over the planet in short term no tax trade zones.

Sell all stocks and move to treasuries or cash to short the Pound and Euro if don't want to end up in Iraq or a ghetto foreclosure.

bank dick said...

The printing press at Treasury is running full speed and the politicians are tripping over themselves to get their name on the next stimulus or bailout bill before November's elections. Look at M3, it's growing at 20% and that money has to go somewhere.

Most banks these days wouldn't give Jesus Christ a mortgage with less than 20% down so what's the next best thing? Yes, Keith is right on this one. The markets are set to soar through the end of the year fueled by Fed funny money and the greed of those bastards on Wall Street.

keyser soze said...

There are always underpriced equities within 'out of favor' sectors. Be smart and be strong... and always read the last 2 10Ks before investing.

It wasn't long ago that the commodity and energy sectors were out of favor...remember Enron?