April 24, 2008

The worldwide housing crash hits Europe. You thought the US was bad? Wait until you see what happens in Spain, Ireland and the UK. Got Milk Duds?

I spent the last few days back in England, looking at flats to rent (heading back in June). Still the same dynamic - renting is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than "owning". But what did change from when I left in December is the amount of listings, the falling prices, the government backstabbing, and general sense of panic.

Even the realtors (aka "estate agents") told me they're swarmed with listings, nothing is moving, and people can't get a loan. And I could sense that they knew. They knew the Ponzi Scheme was over, they knew they were about to lose their jobs, and they knew home prices were already cratering and had much, much, much further to fall.

"Got Popcorn" might do for the US. But in the UK and other parts of Europe, you're gonna need more than that. Got popcorn, nachos, the supersize Coke, some Jelly Bellys, some Goobers, and hell even grab the Milk Duds.

And get ready to enjoy the show.


mairca izda debol said...

There is no housing bubble in Europe because they are too smart and noble to do such a thing

Mark said...

BUT -is there anyway to make money on this...?

Anonymous said...




Keefer! I love your stuff, thanks for the U.K. update.


pretty in pink said...

weeee haaaaa

Got my seatbelt fastened.

And am ready for the German blitz economy crash.

Staying put on this side of the pond

Its gonna get real ugly all across the EU.

WaitingToBuy said...

Could the reason why the UK market has gone up a lot more and has not come back down yet is that in the UK people get short term fixed mortgages (2 to 3 years) and then they refinance. Rates have been low so there has been nothing stopping this TILL NOW! Reading UK newspapers recently the big thing is the big decrease in available of mortgages. So with this decrease the squeeze is on now in the UK and the blow up could hit really hard and fast.

keith said...

Spain expects 400,000 layoffs due to their housing crash



shtove said...

What are these "Jelly Bellys ... Goobers ... and Milk Duds" of which you speak?

We don't have them in our local Tesco on the south coast of England, and I need to stock pile.

Anonymous said...

Should we short tea or tea pots?

the dude said...

i want more news on germany! anyone got case shiller numbers for germany?

X said...

So the Euro bubble is finally popping.

The Asian property bubble will be next.

Basically anywhere where prices have soared far above the historical norms will see their bubble pop. No exceptions.

Andrew from Russia said...

> Got popcorn, nachos, the supersize Coke, some Jelly Bellys, some Goobers, and hell even grab the Milk Duds.

Sounds unhealthy -- what does the EU food safety label say? I'd better get some ramen noodles to display my (pretentious) commiseration with the failed RE tycoons. And, perhaps, some Bulgarian stuffed peppers in the memory of the Europe's most promising investment RE market! I'll miss the $19999 "watch the price to explode" deals!

Andrew Hac said...

So the Roast Beef is busted hah !!!

Damn freaking Charlie Chaplin and Benny Hill piece of human excrement is going down the gutter too.

Any damn nation where its occupants drinking tea with milk is slated for extinction sooner or later.

And last but not least,,,

The Snapper Turtle will outlive the Roast Beef for millenia to come !

Anonymous said...

Any info on Australia? Prices just keep soaring there. Is their economy doing that well? Did they have easy financing or something?

Anonymous said...

Short the pound with extreme leverage and double down on your winnings as it plummets into the abyss late 2008-2009. Then switch to shorting the Euro for late 2009-2010.

This shit is too easy, it's like taking candy from a baby or betting Oil would rocket up with Bush/Cheney.

Anonymous said...

So who is the Countrywide or New Century of the UK or Spain? There has to be a good short here.


testseifried said...

My wife and I paid... wait for it... 3.3 times our combined annual income for our house. And even then we both are aware we overpaid a bit (although things aren't nearly as bad here in Canada as in the US) we had a simple strategy: we bought a house we could afford, both in terms of monthly payments (mortgage + taxes + utils) and in terms of total debt load. Duh. It really is that simple. Don't buy what you can't afford. How hard is this really?