March 19, 2008

WTF??!! Special from LawrenceYunWatch: USA Today Names Lawrence Yun as Top Economic Forecaster

Special HP guest post from David, my partner in crime over at LawrenceYunWatch. And no, this is not an April Fool's joke. It's the real deal. And The USAToday is now the biggest joke in print media.

Take a minute and send this post to the USAToday with your comments - just hit the little envelope sign below this post to forward it

To report corrections and clarifications, contact USAToday Reader Editor Brent Jones at 1-800-872-7073 or e-mail accuracy@usatoday.com


- Keith


The USA Today named Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors as its fifth top economic forecaster.

The National Association of Realtors(R) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR's real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.

I'm honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country," said Yun. "The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position

USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.Do not trust Lawrence Yun.

Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."

The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

From Agent Genius:

http://agentgenius.com/?p=958

As a member of NAR, the bottom line is that it is a marriage. Some days we agree on everything and run along like a happy couple, other days, I look at the dress and think, yes, it does make you look fat- suddenly it blurts out of my brain through my mouth before I can take it back- today is one of those days…

I am reading a blog post in the Wall Street Journal and as I read down towards the comments I grow more and more alarmed at what the damage to the association may really be. As it goes, I try really hard to see the both sides of every coin but in this instance, it is getting harder and harder to believe NAR has a chance of regaining much credibility unless they make major change in the ranks at NAR, right now.

Sand is Slipping Through The Hourglass

It may be time for NAR to take a look at the source of the controversy in which it lost its position as “fact” in the real estate arena and once and for all acknowledge it and cut the losses.
As We All See It

Yes, NAR, Mr. Yun makes you look fat. Mr. Yun is fantastic at measuring statistics, but as a voice, he no longer has one. It may be time to move Mr. Yun to a new post within the same division and allow someone with a fresh voice to lead the conversation. It is now time to step up, clear the slate and regain control of the conversation before it’s too late.
Sigh…

I do not make these types of suggestions lightly. With all due respect to NAR, all you need to do is take a read of the comments in this Wall Street Journal post to realize that what consumers are reading is fast becoming “fact,” regardless of the truth.
My Suggestions:

* Cut Yun from the public eye (Publicly remove him)
* Replace Yun with a person of credibility with likable qualities
* Regroup your public relations forces and enter into the media mainstream
* Retool your online team to engage blogs, websites, and other forums where consumers congregate
* Create and Social Media Marketing Team of outsiders to guide you

Anonymous said...

What do you expect from McPaper????

Anonymous said...

Just to show you how the entire MSM is corrupt and rigged.

Anonymous said...

It had to be Chinese.

Anonymous said...

I didn't know USA Today was that bad... I mean, it's always been kind of a like a dumbed-down-daily that skirts around a few stories every day, but good enough to skim through as it's free with your vacation hotel room. But, obviously i was wrong, it's not even worth that. What a pack of jackasses, what were they thinking?

Anonymous said...

Keith,
It's all a misunderstanding. When they say top ten they mean in terms of USA advertising revenue not accuracy.

yunnystuff said...

greenspan was on a pedestal once too. honestly, the older I get the more I realize that people just write stories to justify a paycheck, not the truth.

David said...

Thanks Keith for the post. We need to continue and expose the paid shill and the MSM which often does a shoody job!

Llamafornia said...

The 5 worst economists must be:

Peter Schiff
Chris Thornberg
Roubini
Mike Shedlock
and the Calculated Risk/Tanta team

Great Job, USA Today.

The name of your paper is ever more appropriate.

Anonymous said...

Blah blah blah..

I agree that USA today is not exactly a reliable source of information, but its atleast on par with the BBC or FT which are European propaganda outlets and never tell you how things really are.

I trust any US tabloid (including FOXNews) over any media out of Europe.

eternitus said...

There must only be 5 economists left for Mr. Yun to get that distinction.

Anonymous said...

It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%.

I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster’s job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.

Buzz Saw said...

FOTFRALMAO! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

SNORT, WEASE, GARGLE, GASP...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

mairca izda debol said...

Did Baghdad Bob write that fairytale?

Anonymous said...

We're run by monkeys I tell you, monkeys!!!!

big n rich said...

I am just laughing mt ass off here you guys.What a bunch of bullshit.We all know this guy is full of shit.

Anonymous said...

Lawrence Yun is obviously a Chinese spy working toward making more Americans indebted to China.

They loan us the money, pump their shitty toxic goods over here, use spies like Yun to pump the market and then when the fat Americano snapper turtle's neck is hooked on the credit noose China yanks it in hard.

Shit, I'm starting to sound like Andrew Hac!

Anonymous said...

The real problem with America today is not the politicians, bankers, immigrants, REIC, realtors, lawyers or even the ignorant populace.

It is the shameless, hypocritical, corrupt, incompetent, opportunistic, self-serving and lying Mainstream media, be they newspapers or the audio-visual channel. If realtors are scum, journalists are parasites and even lower life scum.

Thank God for the internet where one can be free from the MSM's prejudiced views!

Anonymous said...

That reminds me of when Adolf Hitler was put on the cover of Time magazine. Sheesh!

Out at the peak said...

USA Today needs to issue a correction. Yun continues to say we are hitting bottom and prices/sales will be going up in the near future. He might have been better during the boom years, but he is unable to grasp the magnitude of the bust years.

DOPES said...

HAS TO BE ALL THOSE REAL ESTATE CLASSIFIEDS IN THE BACK OF THAT RAG EACH DAY...

DOPES!!!

tater said...

Keefer,

I give up. I can't think of anything to say on this one.

Anonymous said...

The Real Estate Complex, The Media Complex and the Federal Reserve Complex will all lose big if America wakes up and begins to take control of their financial situation.

Look for more deception by the big complexes trying to convince good folks into more debt and more out of control spending.

We now have blogs for a better picture of what the big players are doing to us.

Don't be deceived folks. Protect yourself and get ready for a major downturn in the economic cycle.

Good luck to all!

Paul E. Math said...

But did you see the criteria they used? They gave a bunch of economists a quarterly survey and then at the end of the year they compared the survey forecasts with actual outcomes.

The people evaluating did not know who the individual economists were.

What this means is that Lawrence Yun is not a bad economist, he's just a liar.

Yun likely filled out the survey based upon his actual economic analysis. His responses on the survey could have been (and likely were) wildly different from the forecasts that he feeds to the public. We all know that Yun's public forecasts have been mind-bogglingly off-base.

So I submit to you all that Yun is not a bad objective economist, it's just that that's not what he's paid by the NAR to do.

I think this makes him that much more culpable for his dishonesty and false leadership.

P.S. USA Today did no evaluation as to whether the participants survey responses were at all consistent with their public forecasts - I would be absolutely certain that Yuns survey responses were radically different from the outrageous lies he tells to the public.

Anonymous said...

Without reading the article, I �m guessing they were talking more about who is at the top of public attention; Keith you certainly mention Yun a whole bunch...

Democraatus said...

How can a free country survive with such press?

Anonymous said...

BEAR STEARNS IS NOT A BAILOUT. That is, the Government isn't handing $30 billion to either Bear Stearns or JP Morgan. This effort has not cost taxpayers anything so far.

The $30 billion involved in the JP Morgan buy-out of Bear Stearns is NOT a bail-out - it is a non-resource loan (think: loan guarantee) provided by the Federal Reserve system to JP Morgan, in order to induce JP Morgan to take over Bear Stearns, by limiting the downside risks to the Bear Stearns assets that JPM is buying. The Federal Reserve is loaning $30 billion in non-recourse debt against certain Bear Stearns assets, so that if the underlying debtor-counterparty (i.e. homeowner with mortgage) doesn't pay, then the Fed will be left holding that shortfall. This makes it less risky for JP Morgan to buy Bear Stearns.

Now, loan guarantees and non-recourse debt happen everyday in the normal course of business between private parties, and they are not free. It is insurance, and it costs money. The guarantor is accepting risk. So, one could say that there has been SOME bailout, in that there is value to the Federal Reserve's loan to JP Morgan, and I've seen nothing that indicates what JP Morgan actually PAID for that loan in addition to pledging collateral. There might very well have been amounts paid to the Fed in exchange for the loan. Scenario: JPM/BS pledged $40 billion of assets in exchange for a $30 billion loan, and paid for it in the structuring.

Bear Stearns' shareholders have lost about $100 billion in nominal enterprise value over the last year or so, so there isn't a bailout of those investors.

Another relevant point: the Federal Reserve system [wikipedia.org] is not a true U.S. governmental entity, so I'm not sure whether the $30 billion would be a true bailout in any event.

Summary: JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns in a private takeover, and the Federal Reserve system guaranteed the performance of $30 billion in notional debt. This will actually only cost the Federal Reserve the amount that mortgagors (homeowners) don't pay on their mortgage, less recoveries thru foreclosure and similar. Actual cost, if any, will be much smaller - 5-10% (?) of the $30bn.

- Steve Hamlin

Thicker Glasses Please, me no can see good.... said...

Thicker Glasses.

So sorry, Charlie.

Anonymous said...

The whole US/Wall Street/London etc thing is a scam.USA Today OMFGMoFOsLOLTTFINGMAX!DUDES!
They really like us,,They really like us!Hahahahhahahhahahhahaha!
Clark Kent at the USA Today says what!
Must be true...it's in this here newspaper.This Hot offf the wire ............LOONS Invade New York!Uh,wayduhminnit,ah,weell,fuck-it print that shit boyz.
Bush is the best prez TOO!
In the words of that rental car lady from Planes Trains,and Automobiles....America.......YURRR FUKT!
or her words in Ferris Beuler's day off.....They Think He's a rightous Dude. So there!

Shakster

mabel in wash. d.c. said...

// Summary: JP Morgan bought Bear Stearns in a private takeover, and the Federal Reserve system guaranteed the performance of $30 billion in notional debt.//

look - we have a troll for ben bernanke bush and paulson trying to get us ready for more bailouts oops i mean guarantees

Anonymous said...

But did you see the criteria they used? They gave a bunch of economists a quarterly survey and then at the end of the year they compared the survey forecasts with actual outcomes.

The people evaluating did not know who the individual economists were.

-----------------------------------

wouldn't it be great to get a copy of Lawrence's survey?

the_truth_hurts said...

The real problem today is a bunch of over-educated foreigners who can't do sh*t working side by side with over-educated Americans who can't do shit. We need to return to basics, folks. Life (for the most part) isn't rocket science. We need smart, honest, critical thinking, hardworking, ethical Americans who believe in what they do and their place in the world.

Most every PhD/MBA has only served to hasten the decline of our once great nation. The educational establishment is another f*ckin joke....

the_truth_hurts said...

So they asked for his predictions as part of the evaluation rather than looking them up?!?

Another example of how great our colleges have done (sic). And why corporate America is blind and idiotic to look at your degrees as any measure of worth.

Once, before college was sooo important, our reporters investigated and reported and hard-nosed news-people ran the show. Now, our reporters are fools that can't even Google something which is public knowledge and MBAs fill the timeslots with endless talking heads.

If education is the answer, the source of all solutions (and problems), maybe we should finally look to the source to understand why America can no longer achieve ANYTHING?

Anonymous said...

America is full of con-artists, thieves, and liars. Shoot any one wearing a suit and tie. And any punk with baggy pants.