Folks, we are seeing something that many thought they'd never see. A worldwide financial crash led by the United States of America. And a currency crisis led by the US dollar.
March 18, 2008
Jim Rogers predicting the failure of the United States central bank, warning people to get out of dollars ASAP
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widespread kung fu fighting.
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KUNG FU FIGHTING!!!!!!!
Rogers ought to challenge Bush to an economics debate. Find out whether or not Bush was paying attention in school or not.
Rogers has a way with words. I really like the plain speak. I think he's right too.
So HPers... I need help.
I've almost gotten all my savings into a cash position (unfortunately dollars). My remaining holdings are GLD and some long puts which I have a profit in. I also moved my 401K into TIPS in January.
Where do I go? It's hard to figure out.
I don't really want to by Euro or Yen (not sure if they'll get blown away too as the crisis goes global). Commodities? if so, how? More GLD? More Puts?
Please, let me know what you think.
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I am not too sure about Jim Rogers.
All I have to say is, there are worst currencies than the dollar out there. Like the Euro.
Dny
Ron Paul on gold:
"One of the characteristics of commodity money-- one that originated naturally in the marketplace-- is that it must serve as a store of value. Gold and silver meet that test-- paper does not. Because of this profound difference, the incentive and wisdom of holding emergency funds in the form of gold becomes attractive when the official currency is being devalued. It’s more attractive than trying to save wealth in the form of a fiat currency, even when earning some nominal interest. The lack of earned interest on gold is not a problem once people realize the purchasing power of their currency is declining faster than the interest rates they might earn. The purchasing power of gold can rise even faster than increases in the cost of living.
The point is that most who buy gold do so to protect against a depreciating currency rather than as an investment in the classical sense. Americans understand this less than citizens of other countries; some nations have suffered from severe monetary inflation that literally led to the destruction of their national currency. Though our inflation-- i.e. the depreciation of the U.S. dollar-- has been insidious, average Americans are unaware of how this occurs. For instance, few Americans know nor seem concerned that the 1913 pre-Federal Reserve dollar is now worth only four cents. Officially, our central bankers and our politicians express no fear that the course on which we are set is fraught with great danger to our economy and our political system. The belief that money created out of thin air can work economic miracles, if only properly 'managed,' is pervasive in D.C."
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/
I have been in cash except for mining stocks for the past year. I think it now time, although a little late to buy into gold. Also some TIPS (inflation proof ones) and Swiss franks.
I waited assuming this couldn't really happen in the U.S. which most reasonable people would think. Now it is time for action.
Sometimes one can't help but feel it would be better to be an FB with nothing to lose but a house with no equity that you didn't work for anyways.
That may be good advice if he also told you where to put your money. Getting into other currencies isn't like opening a bank account. Gold can easily be manipulated. I agree gold should be the place to be, but any central bank could start a selling frenzy, right?
Jim Rogers and people like Keith are unpatriotic Americans. When times get tough, they leave the land that gave them so much. People like them are traitors. America is still the world's largest economy, if we go down, the rest of the world will go down too. Thus, we won't enter into a severe depression like a lot of people on this board hope for. We are still that shiny city on top of a hill that the rest of the world looks up to.
Long term, stocks should have a netural inflation bias. I'm dollar cost adverging into the market.
Not all stocks are equal. I like large multinationals with global footprints. No financials. Companies that produce 'things' that can be priced in multiple currencies and can pass on price increases. Oh... and I'm getting into them via puts.
I don't know -- Rogers loses a lot of credibility when he speaks about the Fed using taxpayer money for these recent market interventions.
Doesn't the Fed get its money from the reserve deposits required of banks?
Now if the Fed runs out of reserves due to interventions, Congress will likely step in, but Rogers comments about Bernanke being unelected but in charge of spending our tax money is just wrong.
Maybe Rogers is right about the dollar and about gold, but with the basic information he trumpets having so many factual errors I wouldn't use his advice as a justification for an investment.
Disclaimer: Personally I feel that gold is approaching a top. I also feel the the dollar may be due for a short term rebound in coming weeks or months before resuming a slow slide.
How about putting some of that fiat into a brand new car? Hold on now, I know what you are thinking. But lets say that new car is a Honda Civic, or Toyota Corolla, etc.
I wonder if demand will outstrip supply WHEN gas hits $6.00 a gallon?
Race ya to the dealer!
Lehman and GS blow away numbers and you imbeciles are talking about a metdown. Same meltdown as in '87 or Y2K. Pessimists who hate life are always looking for the end of the world. Nothing new.
kind of funny since rogers will benefit from a commodities bubble,,,... does he have a conflict of interest? is he being used by the powers that be to create and legitimatize the next bubble?
Jim Rogers also knows that if people flood to commodities and other holdings he is in he will make more money.
What I think Rogers is afraid of is that the bail-outs will be transfered to the taxpayers.
The question becomes where are the losses going to be absorbed into financial systems without causing a meltdown .
"Lehman and GS blow away numbers and you imbeciles are talking about a metdown."
Enron had good numbers too; What's your point?
anonymous @5:50p said,
"Lehman and GS blow away numbers and you imbeciles are talking about a metdown."
Really? I thought it was the banking crybabies who are screaming for "more liquidity" and that the BS bailout was totally, absolutely necessary to prevent a "financial meltdown."
The fact that Lehman and Goldman did well today is simply because the fed cut the rate - if they hold up over the next 2 weeks I'll feel safer. I'm afraid of commodoties because I remember people that got burned in the 80s and anyway almost anything worth having would mean buying pretty high. I'm still leaning towards some kind of foreign currency. What good is having a hunk of gold going to do if no one has any money to buy and certainly no one will be buying jewelry if they can't afford food or housing because they're out of work
GS had really good numbers... but that's 'cause they were able to hedge a lot of thier bets. The hedges/insurance are only as good as the counterparties. Who are they? FGIC? AMBAC? BSC? Hedge funds? Who know... GS isn't telling.
LEH got credit for being better than horrible. A lot of people thought they could collapse ala Bear this week. Talk about lowered expectations.
We're im the end of the beginning of the credit crunch. No one knows how the underlying assets will perform. More of the resets/forclosures are still to come. It's just too early to celebrate the financial's results.
P.S. I bet Morgan Stanley does well tomarrow too. Still will be too early.
Jim Rodgers is telling it like it is - you won't here any of this on FOX news or any of the other stations which are more concerned with their ratings than doing actual journalistic reporting.
However, most US citizens do not have Jim's latitude to move into other assets/currencies.
All his statements though are factual, and clearly underline the fact that this country has gone to hell in a hand basket, all so that a few bastards can keep living like Kings off the expense of working US citizens.
This guy would be a better politician than Ron Paul is. Jim Rodgers for President!
"Hope for a Depression" ???
Get real now - no one hopes for a depression.
However, I have never thought of
us as the "shiny city on top of this hill" - what arrogance to think such a way, the rest of the world is important also.
There just may be a world-wide financial collapse, leading into a severe recession, which this "shiny country" is largely responsible for.
Anonymous Said ...
Jim Rogers and people like Keith are unpatriotic Americans. When times get tough, they leave the land that gave them so much. People like them are traitors. America is still the world's largest economy, if we go down, the rest of the world will go down too. Thus, we won't enter into a severe depression like a lot of people on this board hope for. We are still that shiny city on top of a hill that the rest of the world looks up to.
To the knucklehead that said Keith and Jim are unpatriotic: how the heck is it unpatriotic to avoid getting F'd over by our own government? Is it a duty of all Americans to suffer so that a connected few can get super rich?
Here's the question I'm wrestling with:
I owe about $80k in student loans -- my only debt. I'll be in a position to pay off 30k of that amount this year. My rate is 7.25% (consolidated in 99 or 00) and I'll be paying for another 22 years, about $600/month. I'd love to be totally debt free, but I have to wonder, if the dollar keeps getting hit hard, and inflation heating up, would I be better off waiting till $600 feels like lunch money?
I do invest in some quasi-foreign stocks. What I mean by that is I have US issues of Canadian companies' (oil and gas producers) stocks which pay dividends in Canadian dollars. I'm liking that right now, as the dividends run about 1% per month post tax -- but it isn't clear to me that there is a long term future in these investments due to political shenanigans in Canada WRT fossil fuels.
Anyway, I'm wondering what people here think. Is it better to just pay off what I can of my loans or invest the money? For all the "cash is king" comments, I'm not just going to sit on it because inflation will rot it away. I'll either pay off debt, or invest.
Anyway, just curious about opinions. No need to add CYA to comments, I'm taking it all with a grain of salt and won't hold anyone's feet to the fire.
Lehman and GS blow away numbers and you imbeciles are talking about a metdown.
Are you insane?
Goldman Sachs' first quarter income is down 53% while Lehman's is down 31%. Estimates were for worse. That may be blowing the numbers, but not blowing them away. Get a grip, man.
The US dollar will lose value, that is the intention of Ben Bernanke, to balance the economy in the long run with more exports and less imports (like the dollar lost value in 1933 when the ratio to gold was changed). The US dollar won't lose all its value, however, like the Zimbabwe dollar, not because Bernanke doesn't intend it, but because the state with the strongest military in the world won't allow its currency to become worthless. (Germany's currency became worhtless 1923 after its defeat.)
I guess I didn't make my point clear .
There seems to be on the Feds part to be a slow attempt to in stages change the rules of the game. Now maybe there is a emergency that the public doesn't know about ,but why doesn't the public know about it ?
When you hear Paulson and the Fed Chairman just lie outright about inflation on National television ,you wonder what is going on .
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Jim Rogers and people like Keith are unpatriotic Americans. When times get tough, they leave the land that gave them so much. People like them are traitors. America is still the world's largest economy, if we go down, the rest of the world will go down too. Thus, we won't enter into a severe depression like a lot of people on this board hope for. We are still that shiny city on top of a hill that the rest of the world looks up to.
March 18, 2008 3:31 PM
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This nation and most of its citizens, residents, dwellers, occupants have no ethic, no moral, no responsibility, no duty, no honor, and last but not least, no brain. What it has in plenty is greed, self-centerness, self-righteousness, ignorance, pompousness, lust, materialistic craze. An Easter-Island society comprising of no family value, no respect or caring for the world and the land they live in, the surrounding environment, no caring, husbandry for the long term future
The housing bubble is a shiny mirror in which the Americano can look at itself and ponder upon what may the future brings upon this land of the Snapper Turtle AKA the land of the Skunk.
A nation that mostly comprises of wallowing, scaby pigs feeding, tearing, roosting, chomping at the trough.
A nation with most of its dwellers obese, fat, diabetic, and plain ugly like a chimpanzee.
A nation where a Walmart cashier can buy a house for $500K.
A nation in which its citizen's brain IQ is lower than a snapper turtle.
A nation which rules by turkeys, skunks, and rats.
The Americano nation is as toasted as a roasted armadillo skewered from mouth to ass sizzling, fat popping, juices oozing with melted golden fat over a bed of white hot charcoal.
::: Yummy grilled Snapper Turtle :::
::: Yummy roasted the Americano nation and the Housing Bubble :::
"but I have to wonder, if the dollar keeps getting hit hard, and inflation heating up, would I be better off waiting till $600 feels like lunch money?"
you're better paying it off, my opinion. then you're a free man. if you don't pay it off and lose the ability to pay the loan off, you're endentured.
I hear that in Tennessee there is a place called the Hermitage. The remains of the president on the twenty-dollar bill lie there. The inscription “I killed THE BANK” is supposedly readable there (The second bank). He made the natives of the land Mr. Rogers is from walk a long way. This land is named after money, a ten, Dixie. We have had our money go worthless before. You can bet that there is a plan. Cashless? Pay back of debt with easier cheaper paper? We change the look of it every ten minutes (to fight counterfiats). The new fives are now out with a little purple? The greenback is no longer green except in its smallest denom. First started in 1863? There was a war going on then. Patriotism killed many a poor southerner. Dylan said: Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail steal a lot and they make you king. And today’s market gains … he said also: Fools rush in where angels fear to tread both of their futures so full of dread.
"but I have to wonder, if the dollar keeps getting hit hard, and inflation heating up, would I be better off waiting till $600 feels like lunch money?"
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$600 will feel like 'Lunch Money' only if wages rise.
And so far, that just ain't happenin'. Employers will move a job overseas rather than significantly increase anyone's pay.
Better to pay just off your debt and get it off of your shoulders.
Good luck!
-Mammoth
However, I have never thought of
us as the "shiny city on top of this hill" -
We used to be the shiny city at the top of the hill. That's why millions of Europeans flocked here and stayed here, not elsewhere. When you see millions of Americans fleeing to Europe, then they will be the shiny city. The most powerful vote is with your feet or guns.
More on counterparty risk:
Merrill Sues XL Capital to Maintain CDO Insurance (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3fxGBb4EID0&refer=home
I don't believe these hedged CDO based balence sheets for a second. GS has them. LEH has them. They all have them.
Jim Rogers and people like Keith are unpatriotic Americans. When times get tough, they leave the land that gave them so much. People like them are traitors. America is still the world's largest economy, if we go down, the rest of the world will go down too. Thus, we won't enter into a severe depression like a lot of people on this board hope for. We are still that shiny city on top of a hill that the rest of the world looks up to.
So, Jim Rogers and Keith (and myself) should go broke along with your dumb ass. I'll pass thanks. Maybe some Americans should get rich off this, and we will have Americans buying Americans assets in the future, not just the foreigners.
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