"What we have to overcome is the feeling among consumers that to buy a house today is to catch a falling knife"
- Bob Toll of Toll Brothers Homes, (still awaiting indictment for illegal insider trading), February 2008
March 04, 2008
HousingPANIC Quote of the Day
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37 comments:
It's not a feeling, it's reality!
I came across more exciting news for renters: apartment conversions! due to low sales, new condo developments under construction may turn out to be apartments so they at least get some money out of them. more supply, lower rent. wahoo.
Good Luck with that one Bobby!
I'm sure there are a few knife catchers out there - just not enough of them for your "Spring Bounce" eh?
(plenty on Gen Xer's & Y's thinking "it's a great time to buy")
Here's an idea- how's about you lower the base price on all your Models 200K, give me all free options & finish all the rooms in the Basement (and all the sunrooms & extensions!!) for free - hey even I might talk to you then!
But, Nah,
I'd STILL BE CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE!!!
Sounds like someones been reading Blogs, since that term has been used there.
Falling knife? Try falling ax.
"What we have to overcome is the feeling among consumers that to buy a house today is to catch a falling knife"
Keefer, you've really got me riled up now. Maybe, some of the masses are wisening up. And, that's taking a "toll" on the Toll Brothus money-making machine. I don't feel sorry for these fat asses one bit.
Do I hear a bell? For whom doth the bell toll? The bell doth toll for the "Toll Brothers" and all the other over-priced shit-box "home" builders. And, it's about time. May they NOT rest in peace.
BTW, I hear tell of some more good news. I hear that more illegal aliens are headin' back to Mexico. YEE HAW!! I wonder if the homebuilder industry implosion and the scattin' back across the border illegal aliens have a connection. Ya' think?
Falling investment banker.
Hi Bob! Ya friggin' maggot.
My admittedly anecdotal experience with the man on the street indicates that Bob Toll (always reminds me of Bob Trow from Mr. Roger's Neighborhood) is incorrect.
People are retarded. Practically 0% of potential first-time Gen X and Y dipshit homebuyers have any idea that it is a bad time to buy a house.
Bob Trow is not contending with CONSUMER sentiment; he is contending with BANK sentiment. Plenty of young morons would love to buy a house, but they can't get approved for a mortgage in the amount that they need. I can think of three instances of this from personal experience: one young moron couple that I know, and two young moron couples that my wife knows. The banks are saving the kiddies from themselves at the expense of the builders.
Of course, I was born in 1980, so I know a lot of young morons because they are in my peer group. However, I can't imagine that this pattern among youngsters is unusual.
YOU SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE LOOK ON OLD BOB'S FACE WHEN HIS DAUGHTER CALLED DADDY AND DESCRIBED HER NEW CONDO AS A "FALLING KNIFE." HIS SHRINK LATER CALLED IT A "SIGNIFICANT EMOTIONAL EVENT."
DASHING THROUGH THE HOMES...
FROM A 40 SEAT FORECLOSURE BUS...
THE YARDS ARE OVERGROWN...
AND THE BUYERS CAN'T GET NO LOANS
JINGLE MAIL...
JINGLE MAIL...
DOPES!!!
"What we have to overcome is the feeling among consumers that to buy a house today is to catch a falling knife"
-----------------------
Lotsa luck changing consumers' perception, Mr. Toll!
Just keep in mind that Chrysler, Frod and General Motors have been trying, for ~30 years, to change consumers' perception that their vehicles are more well-built than Japanese vehicles.
No luck yet in that department.
-Mammoth
Falling knife? Try falling ax.
No, try falling piano.
Yeah, a still unaffordable falling knife that turns into a ball and chain for 30 years.
Where do I sign, douchebag?
I'm confused, Is dopes still a troll or is he one of us now?
I might catch hell, but …
It's possible for a panic to form
a reverse deflationary bubble.
Reality works best, not veering
too far from genuine values.
Then there must be rehab of the
"new" homes, those long-vacant,
and the old money pits.
(As long as they have velcro
holsters on their toolbelts.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Also … if you won't buy
American, look at Hyundai.
"I'm confused, Is dopes still a troll or is he one of us now?"
I'M ONE OF YOU NOW.
I CAME CLEAN.
I TORE ALL THE CASEY SERIN POSTERS OFF MY WALLS.
SOLD ALL MY HOMEBUILDER STOCKS (AT A LOSS).
LOST ALL MY (FAKE) HOME EQUITY.
FILED FOR BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION AGAINST THE LENDER THUGS THAT HAVE BEEN AFTER ME.
AND IN MY FINAL ACT, I MAILED ANGELO MY HOUSE KEYS.
DOPES!!!
Then lower the fucking prices Bob, and we won't have to catch that sharp knife!!
Why does a Buyer have to overcome a feeling of catching a falling knife ? Fear is a natural emotion in a falling market . Why should borrowers fall on a knife .On top of everything else we are going into recession and people have to be concerned about job security .
The American public is suppose to respond to the con artists that sold them a bill of goods during the boom ...yea right .
TODAY?! How about all of last year??
Now that lenders can't sell
mortgage dung to bond junkies,
and the housing market is undone,
they are turning the screws on appraisals, instead of selling
mistakes to suckers downstream.
Now they hold the note for years,
if not decades, and they want a
low appraisal that also accounts for any expected price decline.
So its not just an appraisal
of current market value; it's also
tweaked for declines, or they won't
buy the house for the borrower.
This has a compounding effect
on falling home prices, since they
lost both bubble and bond steroids.
I think its more like juggling chainsaws, blindfolded with your arms tied behind your back after a hard night at the bar...
I love behaviorial ecconomics. One of the main points (to simplify it) is that people are not always rational... we're often emotional.
These emotions affect our decisions so that we put 'value' on these emotions.. which need are part of the trade.
Loss Aversion is one the most common:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion
Citigroup could write down another $18 billion of debt tied to souring mortgages,
....
Citigroup because it believes the bank could write down another $18 billion of debt tied to souring mortgages, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080304/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AnbVIb814p5SrcdMaZl0zblv24cA
Dear Bob,
I'll buy one of your overpriced homes if you provide me with a "Jan 2010 Put" option at the purchase price. If you do this, people will no longer be concerned about "catching a falling knife"..,,"whad da" say Bob?
What bothers me most about many on this blog is the fact that we can place blame on the media for helping cheer on and make the bubble worse, however, now that the media is reporting the BH side of the story, they have no effect on the market.
To put it bluntly, the media has a lot to do with the negative perception out there now and the constant negative reports do nothing but reiterate the bad.
Is it bad out there? Yeah, but until the media tires of droning on about how bad it is, people will be scared to buy houses.
Sheeple listen to the MSM, and just as many purported while during the bubble, the MSM plays a major role in pumpimg a market up or deflating it.
With a Toll Bros house, it's more like catching a falling bunker buster.
What we have to overcome is the idea that buying a house is a way to make money.
It isn't - it's a place to keep your stuff.
Anonymous said...
What we have to overcome is the idea that buying a house is a way to make money.
It isn't - it's a place to keep your stuff.
March 04, 2008 7:20 PM
What we have to overcome is the idea that keeping up with the Jones's is a worthy endeavor, and that we will sell our children into slavery for granite countertops.
/Is it bad out there? Yeah,/
you're spreading negative comments too
what are you blathering about the msm for......
Here's something pertaining to the subject. Heres's the link.
http://tinyurl.com/2ekj2u
... and here's the start of the article.
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday, and the downward momentum on housing prices appears to be accelerating.
When the NAHB, has to finally come to grips with the situation, then you know it's bad. Now, they're even admitting that this is just starting....
"What we have to overcome is
the idea that … we will sell our children into slavery for granite countertops."
… … … … … … … … … …
What we really need to get over
is that we have kids for the kids.
.…. Announcing .….
* Why we actually have kids *
[the sensitive should skip this]
---Religious/military/social dogma
evolves to require more kids.
---To feel 'completed' by the task.
---As helpers/warriors/friends.
---As some "life" after death.
---We are not told that humanity
will be cut by half; either the
hard ways, or the terrible ways.
---We are not ready for population
limitation treaties.
---At 21, they might choose
their own birth.
You know things are bad when even here in a non-bubble market (Raleigh, NC) the radio and billboard ads are full of "it's a great time to buy a home" ads.
If they can't make money hand over fist here in North Carolina, the home builders truly are doomed!!!
Bob Toll makes a fine house! He knew it would take a while for the tsunami to reach his buyers/homes. If he can now only talk his way out of trouble, or at least have a plausible excuse for his investors.
As the Fed monitary policy becomes more effective in re-introducing rampant inflation it will become obvious that homes and other real assets represent a reasonable investment again. If inflation can be sustaines in the 10%-12% range and the US dollar can be allowed to fall to about 75 Yen and about 43 cents against the Euro housing will again resume it's rise in real dollar terms. In inflation adjusted dollars it may never re-attain it's 2005 highs but that's not how people think. Hold on to your hat because the only way the Fed sees out the current housing mess and all of it's related investment woes is to allow inflation to run wild. This is by coincidence how the US government plans to deal with the Trillions it owes various foreign and domestic investors. It's impossible to actually default on this debt but there will be only the usual bitching as inflation shrinks the problem to reasonable dimensions. Those who don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
Sort of reminds me of the Morris Albert song of old...'Feelings'. BTW, I prefer Bill Murray's version.
Not to forget mortgage brokers,
mortgage underwriters,
Greenspan's rejection of
mortgage oversight, and
various GWB Feds.
And then those who saw this
coming, but did not run naked
and screaming down Wall Street
then self-immolate in protest.
I just love the description of trying to catch a falling knife. I can picture a person flying a bat kite/go-kart ultralight 15,000 feet over a prison yard throwing steak knives from his drivers seat as inmates below are trying to catch the free knives to use as shanks. And the pilot wearing an oxygen bar thing as he drives and tosses the knives over the side.
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