March 24, 2008

FLASH: Used home sales crash 24%, prices down record 8% vs. year ago. Mainstream media reports home sales up, Dow rockets on NAR's great news!


I swear, HP'ers live in an alternative reality.

It's called "truthland".

You gotta love Lawrence Yun and the NAR though - they can spin with the best of 'em. And you gotta love the copy/paste crowd at our nation's mainstream media. Why work when you can just report lobby group press releases as news?

Unreal.

Here's the hilarious NAR lipstick-on-a-pig spin:

Existing Home Sales Rise In February

Sales of existing homes increased in February and remain within a fairly stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain is encouraging. “We’re not expecting a notable gain in existing-home sales until the second half of this year, but the improvement is another sign that the market is stabilizing,” he said. “Buyers taking advantage of higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional mortgages will unleash some pent-up demand. As inventories are drawn down, prices in many markets should go positive later this year.”

But here's the truth

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

B of A has a new mortgage called the no fee mortgage plus. It's a conforming loan requiring only 5% down with no fees and no PMI. I figure there has got to be a catch so I called them. BWAHAHAHAHAHA. They said the loan doesn't apply to purchases in any area that is considered a declining market. UUHHHHHHHHH......so basically this loan doesn't exist then. What BS advertising.

Rob in SoCal

keith said...

Greg Swanndive calls bottom in Phoenix (in the real estate ad supported Arizona Republic):

http://www.azcentral.com/community/peoria/articles/0321gl-swann0322.html

Slide in home prices finally encountering demand

Special for The Republic
Mar. 21, 2008 02:44 PM

If you've been looking for the bottom of the Valley's real-estate market, it might well be upon us.

Because so many people wanted to buy houses here, our builders gleefully overbuilt the Valley. This caused the glut of inventory we have been trying to absorb over the past nine quarters.

It could be we'll be back to normal inventory levels fairly soon.

Refuse to buy overpriced said...

If Lawrence Yun really believes that prices are about to start rising on their own, then he should lobby Congress to stop the superfluous bailout.

Ed said...

And of course next month we will see "HOME SALES SOAR" headlines when March vs. Feb numbers are compared, even though March has 7% more days than Feb.

area 51 said...

ECONOMIST CALLS BOTTOM!!

"We seem to be finding a bottom in home sales even as prices keep falling," wrote Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers.

Anonymous said...

HPers,

Is time to get in the game or loose everything. You have to buy a home now! You've been warned!

phil said...

Yun can beat David Copperfield any day.
Not to mention that:
(a) February had 29 days, that's 3.57 % more than usual.
(b) due to more and more auctions and short sales, existing home sales will start up, but let's wait until new home sales numbers come in, and then add them up.
(c) I wonder if all the foreclosed homes are in the MLS and counted as "for sale". Anyone knows?

Anonymous said...

Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free

John 8:32

Impeach, prosecute and punish Bush-Cheney said...

Nice picture of Bush. It will come in handy getting dates in prison.

Anonymous said...

This is very great news. These are signs of a recovery.

DaveO said...

First of all, Yun is playing the usual NAR trick (they did the same exact thing last year) of using the annual seasonal rise (look at the graph) from January to April as proof of sales finally bottoming out, forgetting that sales are much lower than last year's sales and that sales, as low as they are, are only as "good" as they are due to dropping prices. There won't be a lasting recovery in sales until prices drop to their historic ratio of price to income.

Second, I hate it when those in the MSM keep saying that the high inventory is the reason that the housing market is so bad, and that lowering the inventory will help the market. It's the PRICES idiots (still too high relative to income in bubble areas)! The high inventory is a SYMPTOM, not a CAUSE of the housing market's woes.

Anonymous said...

That advertising message should suck in a few more FB's. They will be in the hole the day ecsrow closes.Oh the shame,, following the advice of a realtor.

Anonymous said...

All they have to do is price the houses right like they are doing in SW Florida. This will definitely help improve sales with buy one get one free pricing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgTdxEGauok

Mark in San Diego said...

Love the pig in lipstick . . .one of my favorite sayings. . .I KNEW you would hit the ceiling again when I saw that story this morning. . .down 24% and down 8% and the market is cheering. . .of coure having the Treasury Dept and Fed bail out Bear Stearns (let's all keep those bonus payouts) might have had something to do with the up market.

Anonymous said...

Gee, I wonder if the NAR might be a little biased!

I guess if I was selling widgets now would be a great time to buy a widget no matter what the price.

This biased reporting is only hurting the industry. We may never see a bottom!

The Bruiser said...

Using Lawrence "5th Best Economist in the U.S." Yun's methodology, I have concluded that global warming will lead to severe drought and extinction of all living organisms over the next 8 - 12 months in New Jersey. The temperature of the air is 15 degrees warmer now than it was just a few short weeks ago. Now is a good time to by bottled water and air conditioning units. Thank me later, but don't miss this opportunity to be ahead of the curve!

Anonymous said...

buahahahha,

DOW UP! LOSERSSSSSSS!

Instead of HousingPanic, what about HousingDramaQueens!!

Buahahahah.

DOPES said...

OH DAMN, I WAS SURE THEY WERE GONNA BLAME THEIR USUAL FAILURE ON THE F#CKING EASTER BUNNY COMING EARLY THIS YEAR...

DOPES!!!

Lawrence Yun said...

Your facts, numbers, and statistics are no match for me. I can spin anything!

Anonymous said...

everyone knows certain numbers are junk, just check out CPI at 0%, but it doesnt matter the market will move on them, so you need to be aware, and not fight the trend just for the truth

gadfly said...

I would like to buy now but I wonder if the NAR could give me a price loss guarantee for the next 5years. After all they have said the best time to buy is NOW.

Anonymous said...

I STILL luv you keef!

Anonymous said...

Don't get too excited about yet another phony rally to fool the sheep:

Fortune -- One way to think about this is to look at the profits of the U.S. financial sector versus GDP. Inker did this, and the result was what he describes as a "truly striking chart." From 1947 to 1997, financial profits were stable at around 0.75% of GDP. But over the last ten years, the share of GDP represented by financial profits began to shoot higher. In the last few years - before the Street began to report massive writeoffs - financial profits represented roughly 2.25% of GDP. Inker says that it is too simplistic to say that the right number should be 0.75%. But when you think about what financial profits consisted of at the height of the boom, 2.25% seems unsustainable too.

The last decade saw the explosion of securitization - the carving up and redistributing of risk - the boom in hedge funds, and the private equity mania. It's apparent now that Wall Street can't transform a sub prime mortgage into a triple A credit, and that the redistribution of risk doesn't get rid of it. Unless (or until) we forget that simple lesson, it's hard to see the securitization game being played again.


I wonder how the financials are planning to increase earnings in the future. Good luck!

Anonymous said...

And similarly, Monday October 19th, 1987, was a great day on the stock market with unusually high volume.

Anonymous said...

According to the study prices in the north east are still increasing. I believe this to be true as I do not see any affordable houses in these areas still. The fed programs proping up housing prices may just keep housing from falling for quite some time.

Anonymous said...

I agree the high inventory is a symptom, not the cause of the woes. The cause is simple; prices are still too damn high.

formosan80 said...

I laughed my ass off when I heard an NPR news story about the 2.3% increase in sales. They quoted a bunch of folks who said that the turn around was happening. But, I have to give them credit for mentioning at the end of the story that sales were down 24% from the previous year.

Anonymous said...

I don't know why you're always hating on the NAR. Me, I love them. Every time their chief cheerleader opens his burrito hole and spins some sales figures, the homebuilders go up. Then I short them again, usually through puts and make more money. It will be a sad day for my bank account when the rest of America immigrates to truthland.

Peter said...

When reality sets in, this blatant doublespeak by these lying bastards will be unravelled by even the sheep, their bleeps harmonizing a surreal melody. The bailouts cannot and will not be allowed to persist. This whole mess will come home to roost, causing civil disorder reminiscent of the LA riots on steroids.
The damage control can only last so long. Get prepared.

Anonymous said...

duh. Don't home sales always increase after thr winter months?
They say that lower prices have lead to increased sales. I think lower sales have caused prices to drop, and the yearly seasonal chage (wait a minute... You all know this.) Nevermind.

Tyrone said...

When will the sheep learn????

Anonymous said...

DAMN! That's one good looking pig. Can you hook us up Kevin?

Seems like a lil lipstick can be a real bailout. Well, yes, sure I'm drunk...

Keyser Soze said...

She has a 'come hither' glint in her eye!

Anonymous said...

The Wall Street Journal did give the whole data in all fairness.
But I totally agree with you!
Love the pig!