March 10, 2008

Countrywide stock heading to zero, Fannie and Freddie in massive trouble, and the market tanks again. How was your Monday?

Well, the market seems to agree with HP - the BofA / Countrywide Toxic Mortgage ain't gonna happen and shares are in freefall again. Tough to effectively integrate a company when everyone is under investigation or heading to jail too...

Then you have a piece in Barron's about the future prospects of Fannie and Freddie and the massive - and I mean MASSIVE - writedowns to come. Can you say government bailout? Can you say ABSOLUTE F*CKING RAGE FROM HP'ERS? The fact that Fannie owns $314 BILLION in liar's loans alone should FREAK YOU OUT.

And then you have the NY governor (and Clinton supporter) about to resign after a hooker scandal, and yet Mozilo still runs Countrywide into the ground. How's that?


And of course, the stock market is tanking... again...

I swear, housing panic is everywhere.

BARRON'S COVER - Is Fannie Mae the Next Government Bailout?

IT'S PERHAPS THE CRUELEST OF ironies that in the U.S. housing market's greatest hour of need, the major entity created during the Depression to bring liquidity to housing, Fannie Mae, may itself soon be in need of bailout.

At year end, the company owned in its portfolio or had packaged and guaranteed some $2.8 trillion of mortgages or 23% of all U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding.

But, if the truth be known, a considerable portion of Fannie's losses also came from speculative forays into higher-yielding but riskier mortgage products like subprime, Alt-A (a category between subprime and prime in credit quality) and dicey mortgages requiring monthly payments of interest only or less.

For example, Fannie's $314 billion of Alt-A -- often called liar loans because borrowers provide little documentation -- accounted for 31.4% of the company's credit losses while making up just 11.9% of its $2.5 trillion single-family-home credit book. Fannie was clearly looking for love -- and market share -- in some of the wrong places.

55 comments:

Anonymous said...

found out a friend of mine has cancer this morning, that's how my day is going. puts shit into perspective pretty damn fast. countrywide, democrat, republican, bush, clinton. it's all pretty useless shit in the big scheme of things.

Anonymous said...

Once again, thankyou FDR and the DemoRats for putting the taxpayers on the hook for bad bank loans.

Anonymous said...

If we're not in "panic" mode yet, we are standing at its precipice.

We are very, very close now.

Housing Panic, here we come!

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

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I'm increasing my short positions with every up tic. WHOOOOO HOOOOO......

Anonymous said...

No FUCKING way that the gubermint can bail out Freddie or Fannie... NO FUCKING WAY!!! Way too much money, if this happens you WILL be wiping your ass with Weimer style fiat...

Anonymous said...

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bovis Homes Group Plc, the U.K.'s most profitable homebuilder, had a record slide in London trading after second-half profit declined 17 percent and the company said prices won't improve this year.

Anonymous said...

It was a great monday, for my PUTS. Probably not such a good day for my future though.

Where's my handbasket, I need something to go to hell in.

Saddend said...

Spizer WHY? I really liked you....

Mark in San Diego said...

KEITH - DO you have ESP? Are you working from a time machine? EVERYTHING you said two years ago has come true. . .I never thought the subprime problem would ruin the entire world economy. . .it gets worse every day! DowJones Marketwatch can't even keep up with the writedowns, Countrywide meltdown, Fannie/Freddie meltdown. . .will all of this end in 1920/39?? Please give us some good news. . .

Anonymous said...

FIRST!

great discussions about the economy at fuckedforum.com,

a descendant of the old fuckedcompany bbs.

Cheers!

coke adds life said...

Daddy Dow and the Joneses

"... I fell in to a burning ring of fire. I went down, down, down and the flames went higher.

And it burns, burns, burns. That ring of fire. That ring of fire."

It is starting to look like a long emergency to me.

Coke Out!

Anonymous said...

Not Eliot Spizer.

I thought he actually walked his talk, and to come to find out he is just another lying sack of shit.

Even worse is his pathetic wife standing next to him. Have some self respect honey. You should have had his balls handed to you about a minute after the story broke.

P.S. The U.S's future - high Weimar inflation and high taxes. There is a reason the government is building large FEMA camps in the middle of nowhere. It is future home to all the failed home flippers and bankrupt baby boomers.

I hear Blackwater has applied for the position of camp director.

Anonymous said...

Did you expect anything more from the government lending agencies? anytime you have a free source of funds you will have the politicos in there with their hands out, saying increase the supply of money so we can make more stuff.
Be they democrats or republicans they want THEIR contributors to share in the proceeds Buy stuff now as the prices WILL go up, and start hoarding hard stuff.

jack

Anonymous said...

Kieth, FYI. Cramer just said "possibility of Run on Banks" in todays show.

Anonymous said...

This country is in a freefall but yet the head in the sand typical American idiot is still driving around in their big urban tractor suv's, Ford F150's and Chevy Siverado's enjoying their happy motoring as if life is good. I can't see how long this can last where are these losers even getting the money to fill up their gas tanks.

Andrew Hac said...

Hello Americano and the side-kick Snapper Turtle. Dude, man. This is a DOOZIE...

Crash, burn, disintegrated, excremented, total annihilation...

Yes, it is the time to pay the Piper for that Wild-Wild-West Housing Bubble Party last night. Add in the maxed out CC debt, the home equity extract, the spend-like-there-is-no-tomorrow mentality of the Americano, the oversize SUV, the run-down-the-cow F350 pickup truck and the Americano is now having a handful of shits, pukes, and hangover biles to deal with. $150.00/barrel of oil in May 2008's...
But worry not, my dear fat-ass buckteeth Americano, Dubya Shrub will lead you through the dark, ominous, pee-in-the-pant time. He has to, he has no choice, since the dim nitwit Americano voted for him 2 terms in a row. Yes, it is fittingly beautiful: "The head turkey leads the horde of wacka-doo-doo, BORKAFATTY, blind turkey down the gutter...".

Now, a little verse from the "Man With The White Beard" to cheer things up for the horde of Snapper Turtle, Porpoise, Armadillo, Raccoon, Opossum, Porcupine, Skunk, and "BORKAFATTY" AKA :::The Pig:::

Psalm 23:4

"Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of the Housing Bubble,
I will fear no foreclosure:
for Dubya Shrub & Penis Shooter art with me:
thy bail-out and thy rebate-check, they comfort me."

Spizers mom said...

This guy was the only one with the balls to take down the privileged blue bloods on Wall St. I'm sure the aristocrats are gloating that robin hood was caught. Of course the media, bowing to the will of their aristocrat masters, will also join the condemnatory fray.

Wall St. = fleeces america
Spitzer gets a blow job.

Which is worse?

Anonymous said...

anon 8:01

How on earth can you try to exploit this economic, national and personal tragedy as a pretext to b***h-slap the Democrats?!?!?

Whose administration was asleep at the switch over the last seven years (or distracted by a useless, unnecessary war, maybe?) instead of performing the oversight their regulatory bodies are responsible for?

Which party’s President assured us at the State of the Union on 1/31/07 “Ladies and Gentlemen . . . the state of our economy is strong” when, in fact, the whole row of dominoes had been falling over with increasing speed for at least 6 months?

Which President rewarded the greatest mortgage mugger of them all, Roland Arnall of the long gone and unlamented Ameriquest, with a posh ambassadorship after pocketing $12 million in donations to his own campaign and to the Republican$, the greatest party money can buy?

And which President has now achieved the historical distinction of both beginning and ending his illegal, blighted term with recessions, if not an actual depression?

How do you spell Hoover? B-U-S-H

This debacle is a gift from the Republican$ and their corporate masters through and through. You are clearly confused or uninformed – history will not be.

CathyG

FBI_DID_IT said...

Mr. Spitzer was getting ready to wax some Wall Street ass. Hmmmm....there couldn't be a coincidence there. Nope. Not a bit....

See the spying program works!

bitterrenter said...

Yet another anonymous idiot attempts to blame FDR and the democrats.

If it weren't for the dregulation and greed-based, "free market" policies of the republican/conservatives, we wouldn't be having this discussion and this blog wouldn't even exist.

God, I hate conservatives. They should all get the cancer the first post was lamenting.

deepcgi said...

It seems to me that one form of bailout would be for the government to agree not to audit Fannie or Freddie's books for a specified period of time - simply looking-the-other-way during creative financing.

bitterrenter said...

Another guy caught with his dick in a wringer.

But really gentlemen, judging another guy for his sexual escapades? We're all pervs when the door closes. Powerful men have powerful sexual appetites. Always have.

Anonymous said...

This looks much worse than 1929 to me. 21st Century Americans don't have a talent for poverty.

satan said...

About Spitzer.. Look I have no problems with prostitution, just the hypocrisy.

Oh.. and he overpaid. No escort is worth over 400 USD/ hour (usually 200-300 USD/hr- less in other countries). You can get a 8 or better gal for less than 400 USD/hr in expensive US cities. She also better give you multiple shots on the goal (MSOG)and a girl-friend experience (GFE).

I think that in the current socio-legal environment in the western world, prostitution offers the best value for money as far as sex is concerned. Not to mention that it is safer than affairs and one-night stands.

Some might object and say that you cannot put a price on companionship. I think you have to look at failed marriages and relationships to see that is not the case. Do you really think your wife/ SO will not desert you if she can get away with it (especially if she can get a better bargain). Have you talked to men in child custody battles- ask them about fun things like loosing your house, alimony, child support, lack of sex life in marriage before divorce etc.

Given that is the case, why would you not want to get the best looking young tail and lots of variety. I mean what are you worried about- that others may snicker or call you a loser(who cares?), the gal may secretly hate it (does it matter?).

You live only once, better to live and die free than be in servitude to the banks (modern money lender), your employer (modern feudal lord) or your "soulmate".

Be a freeman not a serf.

america is a grave yard said...

No big deal now.

Bush and our elected officials and banks waste BILLIONS and BILLIONS every day!

$200 billion here, $850 billion there, $1 triilion here, $3 trillion there. Who cares anymore!?? They destroyed America big time, so might as well destroy it as much as you can!! There is no turning back the doom of bush. Just ask your local government official. He is the king of the world! Nobody can stop him! NOBODY!!!!!!!

I think its soooo funny that they ruined America in only 5 years flat! BWAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!

The end has indeed arrived!!!!!

YAHOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have a question, anyone said...

QUESTION: A manager at McDonalds would BE FIRED if they simply stold something around $10.00 in value, or, was just caught lying.

So my question is this: Why after Bush has taken down the entire global economy at the loss of some -$38,790,690,030,758 (trillion USD)and counting, as the President, has not been fired??!!

PLEASE make me understand?!!

DOPES said...

SORRY ABOUT ELLIOT'S LUCK...

EVER SINCE I MAILED ANGELO BACK HIS HOUSE KEYS I CAN AFFORD HOOKERS NOW TOO...

NOT $4,500 HOOKERS, BUT PREVIOUS REALTYWHORE TYPE HOOKERS...

ISN'T RENTING GREAT!!!

DOPES!!!

Anonymous said...

I hear that CFC was down 14%, I says WOW. Then I looked it up and it is already at $4! 14% is 71 cents! HA!

Anonymous said...

Where are all the naysayers, bulls, and cheerleader fuckers now?!

Anonymous said...

The stock pumpers are running out of speculative rumours. The only thing left is the reality that stock, bonds, commodities etc are way over valued.

Only one way to go and that is mark to market down!

Gabor said...

Hey, Murray Sabrin is running for the US Senate in NJ and he is endored by Ron Paul. Let's all send a couple dollars. Here is the website:
www.murraysabrin.com/

Anonymous said...

Yep, the meltdown is unfolding fast now. Remember those geniuses who would come here to post things like: "Don't fight the Fed", or bragging that they were buying at the lows and then getting excited with sucker's rallies?

Man, those guys probably lost their shirts and Johnny's college money by now. They're buying on lows months ago but those lows are much much much lower now. Meanwhile, I was telling that only an idiot would get into the market, Alt-A was much bigger than subprime, and that the next shoe to drop was mass unemployment. Check, check, check.

You don't see those geniuses here anymore either; they're all hiding under the bed, like DOPES! And to think that we're only in the beginning of this financial crises of historic proportions. Plus, Obama will finish destroying this country. The same way I called this Bush mess back in 2000 and didn't vote for him ever, I'm calling Obama's mess. Every call I've made so far is coming to fruition, which allowed me to make good money with energy stocks, foreign currencies, precious metals, and by selling my house at bubble's peak. I see the majority voting wrong again, and I'm once again getting a defensive position to preserve my assets. Good luck to all who're drinking the Obama or McCain Kool-Aid, pushed by the corrupt MSM.

Anonymous said...

The collapse of the housing bubble is a momentous event. We are seeing $8 trillion in housing wealth vanish before our eyes. This is the reason that Ben Bernanke and the folks at the Fed are running around like chickens with their heads cut off screaming about credit crunches

Anonymous said...

"Once again, thankyou FDR and the DemoRats for putting the taxpayers on the hook for bad bank loans.'

Exqueeze me?

Until, oh 2003, FNM were OK and stable and solvent. That's what, SEVENTY years?

Why? GOVERNMENT REGULATION. They were not allowed to take big risks.

And as a result they were stable and the US had the best and deepest mortgage market in the world. Even in other developed countries, people were shocked that in the US an average person could get a 30 year fixed rate mortage. Everywhere else the terms were for much less time and variable rates. This means that the risk control and assumed stability was sufficiently high that a 30 year fixed was possible. (PS before the Depression and Fannie Mae, there were no 30 year fixed mortgages either).

So, it did work. Then.

It is modern GOP ideology of dergulating everything----which many triangulating Democrats go along with---that is the problem.

The worship of the holy free market short term profits over all.

Greed of FNM executives who began to think of themselves, and pay themselves, just like giant hedge funds and investment banks. And not old-skool strict public servants.

Anonymous said...

Anyone see the CBS morning show today?

The actually sort of promoted www.walkawayplan.com with a full story on it.

Anonymous said...

>> found out a friend of mine has cancer this morning, that's how my day is going.

Too bad for your friend. But his/her life doesn't affect millions of people the way this financial debacle is gonna go down.

Anonymous said...

>> FIRST! great discussions about the economy at fuckedforum.com

Figures that's where you came from. Please go back there and join your loser friends.

Anonymous said...

The FED's cutting interest rates by another half to three-quarters of a point on March 18th will not fix anything, but will cause an immediate drop in the relative value of the US dollar causing import costs (particularly for energy) to surge further.

Anonymous said...

Of course they are. The BIG QUESTION though, is can it happen fast enough to prevent armageddon. Some say yes, some say no. I say it will happen fast, but it will lead to a worse armageddon later on (hyperinflationary depression x 100).

-Matt C

alba said...

Someone had a good day! Eliot Spitzer had to have been set up! Grasso, Greenberg, Mozillo?

Anonymous said...

FNM & FRE insure about $5 trillion of mortgages. If 10% of them go bad and there is a 30% loss on each loan, that comes out to $150 billion if my calculations are correct. They don't insure any HELOCs or negams as far as I know. Their portfolio of liars loans is also relatively small.

Anonymous said...

Wow, another FCer here. coool..

Props to Keith, but I remember talk of the upcoming Fannie and Freddie collapse on Fucked Company at least 3+ years ago. Also we would laugh at the ghetto crapboxes in CA that were selling for $1 Million back then.

Good times.

Anonymous said...

You asked what's coming and I will tell you whats coming because you asked.

We are at the end of the oil age, that is why we are in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bergan Kuwaits largest oil field is pumped out. The Saudi fields are in decline. We have begun the resource wars. The US is going to see the rise of totalitarianism
Pluto will oppose all the USA cancer planets, by the time Pluto is done with us we will be forever changed, 2022.

There will be further attacks on America late 2008 and 2009. By the end of 2010 organized militias in the USA will have open conflicts with the government.
The use of power by the USA will be resisted by many Americans, our one chance that may be too late given our situation and economic crisis. The USA will be totally bankrupt and feel it has the right to take by force the resources of other nations. The glorious dreams of Pax Americana will go the way of other failed empires. It won't all sort itself out until 2022 when the USA as we know it will cease to exist.

That is what is going to happen

Anonymous said...

Fannie and Freddie hold or guarantee around $4.9 trillion in home-loan debt, though under a 1992 law they are required to hold in reserve only a fraction of what is mandated for commercial banks.

Russ DoGG said...

Frog march the Tan One.

Anonymous said...

The bailout for home owners will come soon. Then all of you HP'ers will be so pissed. But so what! I want to see the reaction when owners like me get bailed out while losers like you are still renting waiting for the financial disaster that will never happen because our government will work things out.

Anonymous said...

Saw Spitzer on the Colbert show a couple of weeks ago. I thought to myself WTF? This guy is 1) a drug addict, and 2) a mobbed-up slimeball. If you Nooyawkors admired this guy as a role model, I have to question your sanity.

Noodles said...

Anon1: I am so sorry for your friend. I am sorry for both for the pain and fear that's happening for you guys right now. I also have two very close people in my life with cancer. You just don't know what each day will bring. Take it a step at a time. So why does any of it matter? We all have a death sentence. But it's how we live. My two people have health insurance and great care. But when these jokers steal our money and get our bailouts, that's one less dollar that could have gone to research, you know? Maybe one less guy goes to med school cause of crazy tuition. These things matter. Keep your head up. If you get scared, just remember Lance Armstrong. He had less than a 10% chance at his worst. Take a lot of deep breaths. My best wishes to you and your friend.

Anonymous said...

Keith heres the Cramer "Run on Bank" link:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10407087/1/cramers-mad-money-recap-caution-is-king.html

Scott

Anonymous said...

My monday was solid. no losses in the market. I cheer every day that it drops.

To the anon at 8:01. You are an idiot. Yeah, it's all the demtards fault. You are a reptard lemming. Whatever the reptard above you says, you beleive it. The fact that you are a member of a political party (both being completely corrupt) shows you are a lemming and a moron.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

First poster....sorry to hear about your friend. There have been some amazing advancements in medical tech over the past ten years, and I hope that one of them will be the answer to your friend's cancer. Best of luck to him.

-------------

As for the rest of this stuff....meh. I've been reading memoirs of old codgers who survived the Depression. We're not even close to it yet, guys.

But I'm still gonna contact the local ag extension and find out what varieties of my favorite produce grow well here, as well as some organic farming techniques just in case I can't get my mitts on chemicals in the future. Who knows, I might get a tax break for it, too. May as well learn if I have a green thumb for anything other than houseplants before the shit hits the fan.

The only metal I'm gonna invest in is something with "Smith & Wesson" on the side. BTW, git yer damn city slicker hands offa my tomatoes! ;)

Anonymous said...

some of these HP'ers should just bend over grab your ankles and wait. Keith's numbers never seem to work out. Many of the posters all seem to be conspiracy theorists and do not seem to take any responsibility for themselves, "I sold at the peak" was what someone stated and it seems that they play the system when it is convenient for themselves but then everyone is at fault. If you knew your home was overvalued you probably should have sold for less, but I bet you didn't because you wanted to take advantage of the situation.
No in here bought when the market was hot? If you did I suppose you blamed your Realtor, whom you thought should take you out 24/7 until you were able to buy a place. I do not have a foreclosure yet, but it could happen.. I thought maybe to walk away to save myself. I have two properties both with 20% down and one with a HELOC, Things are tight but I bought the home, I made the decision not anyone else.

The market is ridding themselves of those that probably should never have bought. There will never be 100% loss on those loans and that is the number that is often reported here. It sucks out there and the speculators got themselves into trouble, but may of them did not have guaranteed loans and if they did they committed fraud and should be punished. Buy real estate to hold, buy stocks and pieces of the market to hold. You may make some quick money trying to play the numbers game getting in and out, but you will be burned and they are getting burned. If you bought and will live in your home for a 10 years you will be fine. There are those that get in/out at the wrong time because of work, relocation and any number of things and owning the short term will affect them, but that has always happened. Our society is too much into instant gratification, heck some of you are here right now waiting to see the next post on the web whether it s Keith's or whomever...

I'm done!

Anonymous said...

need blog owner approval? don't want to be proved wrong or calm the "Panic"

Anonymous said...

Shock jocks of the Internet that is what blogs have become. people sitting behind the desk probably afraid to walk outside but feel all important behind their opinions, never having to prove them right or wrong but can pluck away at the keyboard 150-200 times a month.

Anonymous said...

USA will be totally bankrupt and feel it has the right to take by force the resources of other nations.

What do you think the North American Union is all about? Canada and Mexico are full of natural resounrces. The Canadian oilsands have 2 trillion barrels of oil. If 50% of that can be extracted, it would keep the US running on oil for the next 30 years. We would have plenty of farmland and fresh water from all of the lakes. For all of the people who doubt the viability of the oilsands, just look at the profits of Suncor, Shell, Imperial, PetroCanada and other companies.