HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - Open thread to talk about the category five housing hurricane underway

April 17, 2007

BUBBLETALK - Open thread to talk about the category five housing hurricane underway

Post hot links and housing crash stories here, tell us what's on your mind, keep it clean. Oh, man, this sucker is gonna blow...

396 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 396 of 396

Anonymous said...: wow! talk about unwinding. gee, look at the article about century on mortgageimplode.....the stuff is starting to float to the top now. how are the talking heads on tv and elsewhere going to sooth this one over. this century bankruptcy is much bigger than has been portrayed. now , how can they hide such losses? and how can they say that this thing will not affect other areas in the markets and the economy? let us us see how the stock market talking heads, handle this little problem tomorrow, since they are closed on Good Friday.; April 05, 2007 4:25 AM
Anonymous said...: A new U.S. accounting rule that allows companies to change the way they value financial securities may have driven up to $20 billion worth of selling in the mortgage-backed securities market in recent weeks.

This accounting change has opened up a one-time chance for banks and other financial companies to clean up their balance sheets, especially those saddled with investment losses stemming from the subprime mortgage crisis, analysts said.

The selling is also drawing attention of regulators who fear some companies may be trying to manipulate the standard's adoption process to avoid recognizing earnings losses.

http://today.reuters.com/news/
articleinvesting.aspx?storyID=
urn:newsml:reuters.com:
20070404:MTFH82344_2007-
04-04_22-20-07_N04399785&
type=comktNews; April 05, 2007 4:33 AM
Anonymous said...: The dollar fell against the euro and yen Wednesday after a report showed nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in March, fueling concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/
story/dollar-falls-weaker-ism-
services/story.aspx?guid=
%7BD5039047-1E0A-4149-87C4-
3EAEB0517D95%7D; April 05, 2007 4:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Iran is planning to stop using the U.S. dollar to price oil, with less than half of its oil income now paid in the U.S. currency, Iran's central bank governor said.

"That's the plan for the future, we are working on that," Governor Ebrahim Sheibany said in an interview with Zawya Dow Jones News Service late Tuesday when asked if Iran was planning to stop pricing oil in dollars. He was speaking on the sidelines of an Islamic finance forum in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia's largest city.

In global markets, oil is priced in U.S. dollars per barrel.

"More than 50 percent of Iran's oil income is paid in other currencies. We are reducing the dollar share and asking clients to pay in other currencies," Sheibany said.

Sheibany said that almost all of Iran's European clients and some of its Asian customers have accepted making payments in non-dollar currencies.

"Even if we get dollars, we directly convert it to other currencies. Japanese don't mind paying us in yen, for example," he said.

Sheibany noted that Iran has earned more than US$45 billion (€34 billion) from oil sales during the current fiscal year, which ended March 20.

Washington is leading efforts to isolate Iran over what it claims is Tehran's bid to build atomic bombs. The United States has imposed sanctions on two big state banks and has urged international firms to avoid doing business with Iran.

Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil exporter, insists its nuclear plans are aimed at producing electricity so it can conserve its oil and gas resources for export, and also to prepare for the day when its huge energy reserves run out.

Iran is doing fine without economic relations with Washington, and it has "perfect control" in keeping its currency stable, Sheibany said.

"We do not have any problem. We are trading with more than 70 countries, including (in) Asia and Europe," the governor said.

Iran's central bank is also shifting to holding its foreign reserves in a basket of 20 currencies and away from U.S. dollars, which now make up less than 20 percent of the reserves, Sheibany said.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap
/2007/03/28/business/AS-FIN-
Malaysia-Iran-Oil-Dollars.php; April 05, 2007 5:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Well, I was participating on this Blog but decided to take a break because nothing is going on with the expected end of the world. Hard to admit that I lost faith on all these Keith and Ben's forecasts that never do anything major to the economy. If something happens, some day, like housing prices going back to affordable levels, stock market crashing, dollar collapsing, unemployment skyrocketing, you guys give me a call. So far, too much BS and little action. So what that New Century went down...nothing major has happened; so what that some FBs are going into foreclosure, rents and housing prices are still expensive to everyone. This is becoming Casey's site, nothing going on and lots of BS. So, good luck to you all; it was fun for a while. Just a reminder: we are already in April and not a damn thing has happened...Booooring.; April 05, 2007 9:01 AM
Anonymous said...: gosh, i so thought there was no bubble

now i realise what a fool i was

what a bunch of idiots there are in the world; April 05, 2007 10:27 AM
Anonymous said...: There is no bubble just a little froth; April 05, 2007 11:40 AM
Anonymous said...: You are obviously not reading the news, or will not be effected by the wave that will hit most of us.

I suggest you stick around, next years going to get very "exciting".

"Well, I was participating on this Blog but decided to take a break because nothing is going on with the expected end of the world. Hard to admit that I lost faith on all these Keith and Ben's forecasts that never do anything major to the economy. If something happens, some day, like housing prices going back to affordable levels, stock market crashing, dollar collapsing, unemployment skyrocketing, you guys give me a call. So far, too much BS and little action. So what that New Century went down...nothing major has happened; so what that some FBs are going into foreclosure, rents and housing prices are still expensive to everyone. This is becoming Casey's site, nothing going on and lots of BS. So, good luck to you all; it was fun for a while. Just a reminder: we are already in April and not a damn thing has happened...Booooring."; April 05, 2007 6:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Kieth:

Come on you're slacking- no thread regarding the U.S. Census report indicating that our cities would lose population without immigrants and how that is so good for us?; April 05, 2007 6:53 PM
Anonymous said...: "Over-priced houses (shacks)" ... very well put.

It's unfortunate to hear about your relocation problem, but this is only the beginning of much worse things to come for the majority of US citizens.

Employers will be burdened with the relocation problem as well, as it will be harder for them to employee new workers.

Housing should *never* have become speculative for the reasons we're now seeing - a greed-drive scam.

It became (and still is) in the minds of many an elitist entitement, when it actuality decent housing is a necessity for our society as a whole to function properly.

I'm not sure when prices will fall in line with wages of the general population, but we better start making the right changes fast or we're finished.

No "Doom and Gloom" talk ... that's reality.

"New REIT trend: Rental office "managers" nastier than usual.

Many bubbly cities are sitting on a moribund multilist of non-selling overpriced houses, which has the unnoticed but perverse effect of making the rental market much harsher on tenants.

My spouse and I are househunting in a bubbly town across the country. Of course, we don't wanna buy: Who on this blog would?

So we're apartment-shopping, and the pickings are slim and grim. The "managers" are seldom in their offices, never respond to calls or e-mails, and have quite a few gaps in the office-appropriate social skills department.

Any decent-sized vacancies will draw 50 applicants in a flash--because NOBODY can (or wants to) pay those ridiculous prices to "buy" one of the hundreds of homes sitting on realtor.com.

Everyone, of course, says "buying" is the solution to our relocation problem, of course. Not gonna happen.

So, we're deadlocked. The relocation for the job may actually not take place (this after TWO exhausting but futile housing trips, and we're *not* fussy) because the housing market is so badly broken and steeped in denial.

Advice is welcome, but mainly, it has been a pleasure to vent. The next housing trip is next week (groan). Would rather have oral surgery."; April 05, 2007 7:52 PM
Anonymous said...: The New Century news is HUGE!The whole subprime issue is massive.When the reality was felt by wallstreet the market tanked,but is being propped up so stocks can be unloaded to the unknowing.It always happens this way.No doubt in my mind,jump ahead a few weeks and the market will tank again and the issue will be subprime lending and housing.To ignore it would be foolish.But to those who refute this,stay in denial thats who I make all my money off.The best people are the ones with a nice education but no brains.Their degree says they are right.LOL!; April 05, 2007 9:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Someone explain this one to me...

On Yahoo finance reguarding the DOW pinking up another 30 points it says

"Aside from Autos gaining momentum, Homebuilders were another bright spot for the Consumer Discretionary sector after Ryland Group (RYL 42.10 +0.85) issued encouraging preliminary Q1 results."

But on the story about Ryland it says

"The Company expects to report a loss of $0.50 - $0.60 per share for its first quarter of 2007."

So a loss is now good news?? I'm starting to believe what I saw someone else say: "The fix is in" the socks are the next bubble to prop up the economy.

I don't understand any of this; not the huge upswing in housing prices (I did expect a boom, but not a huge bubble) nor the stock market lately. I didn't understand the tech bubble and I was right in the middle of it getting VC money for the company I worked for... I kept thinking that these people were insane...

Keep pushing it higher and higher so that when it does crash, it makes a nuclear bomb look like a fire cracker...; April 05, 2007 11:04 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: News Flash

Keith,

You have been predicting the end to Real Estate Clerks Way of life from day one of HP.

These are shocking Real Estate Observations from inside the industry including "quotes" from Today.

1. GREG SWAN!

2. Then from MISH

3. Then From SELLSIUS (A Real Estate Blog)

iw

1) Zillow 5 is here, and, whether or not you seize upon its opportunities, it isn’t going away

.....If there is a peril to feared from Zillow.com, it is here: This company has gone from a world-shaking AVM to a radical listings platform to a national residential real estate marketplace in fourteen months. This last round of revisions — adding many new pages and vast new capacity — took four months. If this advertising play does not pay off, could it turn itself into a national semi-automated real estate brokerage? You bet. In six months at the outside.
When the meteor strikes, when the big boot drops, the dinosaurs are doomed no matter how passionate their demagogues....
Greg Swan

2) The Changing Business of Real Estate (Part 1)

The current perception that BuySide {sic}Real Estate, is attempting to change, is that one needs substantial help from a Realtor to buy a house. Mr. Fox offered the following comment about those perceptions: "The NAR has done an excellent job of convincing the consumer they are too stupid to buy a house on their own accord even when their own facts show otherwise".
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

3)The Thread Title is-

The Human Listing Site: Zillowfying Your Privacy Under the Guise of Transparency

.........Homeowners who do not visit Zillow won’t even know what’s going on with their homes. (That’s one way to get homeowners to the site). Oh yeah, Zillow is selling ads around your “not for sale” home....
blog.sellsiusrealestate.com; April 06, 2007 12:22 AM
Anonymous said...: a friend of mine in houston, bought a tract home in september 2005. i used to go over there to the building site, with him, to keep tabs on the cosntruction progress. not one, yes, i said , not one american participated in its construction. all of the people who built it could not speak english.....what does this say about us as americans?; April 06, 2007 3:56 AM
Anonymous said...: i think the hedge funds are keeping the market up while they make necessary sales of unwanted stocks.....to gullable chumps......and not to mention the trillion dollar plunge protection team cash which is hard at work every damn day during these unstable times in our precious paper driven stock market built upon sand.....; April 06, 2007 4:00 AM
Anonymous said...: does nothing east of the Pacific time zone count on this blog?

Not until you get to New England, everything else is just fly over... or Taliban country.; April 06, 2007 4:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Even the bfd Iran event turned out to be a dud. Keith, we are waiting for something to happen but so far the stock markets has been flying, unemployment is low, home prices are obscene, and not a damn thing is happening in the economy. Lots of graphs and articles but no impact whatsoever. Sorry, lost patience with all the doom forecasts which never materialize. I'll be back next month to check if anything substantial really happened. And please, a few thousand mortgage brokers loosing their jobs in OC, and a few illegal alien flippers going into foreclosure is NOT a doomsday scenario. SHOW ME THE MONEY!; April 06, 2007 8:36 AM
Anonymous said...: "a friend of mine in houston, bought a tract home in september 2005. i used to go over there to the building site, with him, to keep tabs on the cosntruction progress. not one, yes, i said , not one american participated in its construction. all of the people who built it could not speak english.....what does this say about us as americans? "

It says we are near the end of our civilization. The jobs above were once unionized, were good paying, and went to expirienced craftsmen who knew how to build.

Thank you very much to Republicans and Democrats for ruining this once great country.; April 06, 2007 11:14 AM
Anonymous said...: who will believe this?

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers ramped up hiring in March
employers boosted their payrolls by a strong 180,000
Workers' also saw their paychecks get bigger
The 4.4 percent unemployment rate
Construction companies added 56,000 positions last month

Which Planet they are talking about?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070406/economy.html?.v=17

Pit; April 06, 2007 3:24 PM
Anonymous said...: (From Frederick Co., MD):

It's a great time to buy!:

http://www.greattimetobuy.org/; April 06, 2007 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: UBS Reduces Forecast for Fed Rate Cuts Amid Employment Growth

UBS Securities LLC, one of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities, reduced its forecast for monetary policy, expecting fewer interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year, after government data showed the labor market remains strong.

UBS expects the Fed to lower its target for the overnight lending rate between banks three times beginning in June, U.S. economist Jim O'Sullivan said. Previously the Stamford, Connecticut-based firm called for four cuts beginning in May.

``The labor market has weakened less than we expected given the slowing in growth,'' O'Sullivan said. ``The Fed responds more to labor-market data than the overall growth data.''

The federal funds target has been 5.25 percent since June. Three quarter-point cuts would bring it to 4.5 percent by year- end. Previously UBS had a year-end target of 4.25 percent.

Labor Department data released today showed job creation exceeded forecasts and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined in March. The number of people on payrolls grew by 180,000, the most in three months, and the February increase was revised higher to 113,000. The jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching the lowest since May 2001.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601087&sid=a9udX5J4tHyo&refer
=home; April 06, 2007 5:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Fed Rate Cut Unlikely

U.S. Treasury bond prices tumbled in a holiday-shortened session Friday after the unemployment rate fell to a five-month low, signaling that the economy could be stronger than expected.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note surged to 4.76 percent from 4.68 percent late Thursday. Yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. The bond market closed at 11 a.m. EDT for Good Friday; stock and many other financial markets were closed Friday.

Word that the nation's unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in March rather than rose to 4.6 percent as expected sent the dollar higher.

http://www.timesanddemocrat.com/
articles/2007/04/06/ap/business/
d8ob6er00.txt; April 06, 2007 5:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Gregy Swann about to take one to the nads...

The Changing Business of Real Estate (Part 1)
Like it or not (and the NAR doesn't like it one bit) the business of buying and selling a home is changing. While a slowdown in home sales may be cyclical, changes in the nature of how people buy and sell homes is going to be permanent. These changes will dramatically affect the current real estate commission structure and who benefits.

I had the pleasure of talking to Joseph Fox, CEO of both BuySide Realty and its sister company IggysHouse about the nature of these changes. Let's take a look at each side of the transaction.

The Buy Side

In the typical relationship at present, a person finds a home with or without the help of a Realtor, makes an offer, and commissions on the sale are split between the buyer's agent and seller's agent.

Those commissions are usually in the 5-6% range. Historically the split has been 50-50 between the buyer's agent and seller's agent but given the current slowdown the buyer's agent now gets as much as 4% of 6% commission.

The question is "for what?"

Joe Fox said the percentages in Iggy's Facts come straight from the NAR. So if 64% of home buyers find a home without the help of an agent (24% online and the rest driving around neighborhoods or by other means), exactly why should a substantial commission be paid to some lucky real estate agent for essentially doing nothing but presenting an offer?

It is that very question that was the foundation for BuySide Realty. The idea came about when Mr. Fox and his brother Avi flew to California a couple years ago to look for a house. On arrival, a Realtor had them look through a bunch of online listings to see if they liked anything. "Why fly to California to look at images on a computer?" asked Fox. "Our trip was symptomatic of a totally broken business model". Joe Fox and his brother scrapped the idea of buying a house and spent the entire rest of the trip formulating the basis of BuySide Realty.

BuySide Realty operates on the principle that people who find the home they want to buy should get paid for their effort. So BuySide actually shares with the buyer 75% of the commission it receives. This commission sharing can be substantial. On a $500,000 home with a 6% commission spit equally, BuySide Realty would return $11,250 to the buyer of the house. If the commission was split 4% to the buyer's agent (not uncommon in this market) BuySide Realty would return $15,000 to the new home buyer. The largest rebate so far was $40,000.

In 2006, the average BuySide customer received over $11,000 that they otherwise would never see. BuySide keeps the other 25% for providing expert advice from the offer through the closing.

The current perception that BuySide is attempting to change, is that one needs substantial help from a Realtor to buy a house. Mr. Fox offered the following comment about those perceptions: "The NAR has done an excellent job of convincing the consumer they are too stupid to buy a house on their own accord even when their own facts show otherwise".

Just to see how the process works, I registered online and there are plenty of homes right in my own neighborhood to see. Unlike classified ads in places like CraigsList, the homes on BuySide Realty are the same ones you would see in any Realtor's office. BuySide Realty pays fees to the MLS for access to those lists.

Once you register you can print out a business card to hand to the agent at any open house you attend. BuySide will also arrange appointments on your behalf. That is the way to assure you that 75% of the seller's agent commission benefits you rather than unnecessarily padding the pockets of some random agent. Here is an image of the card for Illinois.

Another interesting fact about BuySide Realty's business model is that BuySide agents are paid a regular salary as opposed to the commission based structure in the NAR model. Furthermore the BuySide bonus structure is based entirely on customer satisfaction goals as opposed to sales price. Thus BuySide agents have no vested interest if someone buys a house for $200,000 or $750,000. Instead they have a vested interest in making sure their customer is completely satisfied. "We have had incredibly good feedback from customers" said Fox.

Contrast the BuySide model with the average real estate agent whose primary goal is to get you to buy his listing, listings with the highest commissions, and/or listings with the highest prices.

In the NAR model, given the enormous housing inventory glut, some sellers have resorted to upping already absurd commission rates. I have even seen this advice offered as a tip by Realtors in many articles. Of course those agents are then all too happy to show higher commission generating houses first. "This is just another symptom of a business model broken beyond repair." said Fox. "In contrast, our model is based on service, customer satisfaction, and trust".

The key word in that sentence is trust. How can there be any trust in a model where someone can hop to the front of the showing line simply because they are willing to offer the listing agent a higher commission? A home buyer in the existing NAR model always needs keep this fact in the back of their head at all times.

Another distinguishing feature of the BuySide model is pre-approval not just pre-qualification. Before scheduling a private showing on any listing in their system, a buyers must be pre-approved. If someone can not afford a house they want to look at, it simply will not be shown.

Currently BuySide is doing business in 5 states: Illinois, California, Florida, Virginia, and Georgia. A person in one of those states can save a lot of money by finding a house oneself. BuySide will be rolling out additional states soon and eventually plans to be in all 50 states.

For at least 64% of the population buying a home, there is simply no reason to fork over huge commissions to a real estate agent when that person can instead pocket those commissions himself. When Buyside expands to all 50 states, that is going to result in a big dent in the pockets of real estate agents as buyers flock to take advantage of BuySide's significant improvement over the current business model.

Consider the situation from the point of view of the NAR. Many real estate agents are already stressed over declining sales and falling prices. The rollout of BuySide Realty in all 50 states is going to significantly compound the problems those commission based agents are facing. In California alone one out of every 55 working age adults in California who is a real estate agent. Where are those next commission checks going to come from?

But the problems with the NAR model do not stop there. Tomorrow we will take a look at the sell side of the equation from BuySide's sister organization known as Iggys. I will have some final thoughts at that time as well. Stay tuned.

Note: This post originally appeared in Minyanville along with this announcement.

Minyanville is proud to introduce the newest professor to the mix, Mike Shedlock. Mike Shedlock, or Mish, is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management, an asset management firm. Mish has his own blog called Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, currently the 4th top rated economic blog in the country.

It's a distinct pleasure to be able to join Todd Harrison, the rest of the professors, and all of the critters (especially Sammy and Snapper) at Minyanville. The professors at Minyanville have helped me both personally and professionally. I hope to return that favor to others.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/; April 06, 2007 6:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Two things come to mind:

(1)
We would rather give these jobs
to those we can easily replace and
exploit.

(2)
Keeping wages down during housing
construction is more important
then the quality of homes built.

I live in Southern California along
the coast, and I can say from personal experience how poorly built most of these over-priced homes are.

So much hype and hot air, and nothing left but a deflated balloon.

"a friend of mine in houston, bought a tract home in september 2005. i used to go over there to the building site, with him, to keep tabs on the cosntruction progress. not one, yes, i said , not one american participated in its construction. all of the people who built it could not speak english.....what does this say about us as americans?"; April 06, 2007 6:53 PM
Anonymous said...: For those who continually post comments stating "everything is A OK" ... just wait till the ARM loans start re-adjusting at the end of this year.

If "seeing is believing" ... you'll be getting an eye full at that time - and it's just the beginning of much worse for the *entire* US economy.

Getting "liquid" sounds like a good move, but what good is spending (devaluated) cash in a country where the economic infrastructure is colapsing?

It's happening folks.

Keith, I hope you can keep this site going for another year - the discussions will get very interesting and down right scary.; April 06, 2007 7:54 PM
Anonymous said...: This is definitely a good start in revamping how real estate is done.

Now ... once prices of houses start falling in line with wages ... we'll have something that makes sense.

The crash we're seeing know is definitely going to be awfull for our economy, but it let's us know that everything must eventually re-adjust to a more realistict level.

It should not require a 6-figure income to own a home, but prices have been set as if the general house debter is earning just that -this makes no sense at all.

The problem is even worse though, because many people who do earn 6-figure incomes (doctors, lawyers, etc.) purchased homes in the millions during the bubble - so they face the same problem - just at a larger scale.

Having the extra education doesn't mean you make more rational decisions - everyone got caught up in the hype.

Most people bought way beyond their means, and there will be huge losses across the entire real-estate market.

"Gregy Swann about to take one to the nads...

The Changing Business of Real Estate (Part 1)
Like it or not (and the NAR doesn't like it one bit) the business of buying and selling a home is changing. While a slowdown in home sales may be cyclical, changes in the nature of how people buy and sell homes is going to be permanent. These changes will dramatically affect the current real estate commission structure and who benefits.

I had the pleasure of talking to Joseph Fox, CEO of both BuySide Realty and its sister company IggysHouse about the nature of these changes. Let's take a look at each side of the transaction.

The Buy Side

In the typical relationship at present, a person finds a home with or without the help of a Realtor, makes an offer, and commissions on the sale are split between the buyer's agent and seller's agent.

Those commissions are usually in the 5-6% range. Historically the split has been 50-50 between the buyer's agent and seller's agent but given the current slowdown the buyer's agent now gets as much as 4% of 6% commission.

The question is "for what?"

Joe Fox said the percentages in Iggy's Facts come straight from the NAR. So if 64% of home buyers find a home without the help of an agent (24% online and the rest driving around neighborhoods or by other means), exactly why should a substantial commission be paid to some lucky real estate agent for essentially doing nothing but presenting an offer?

It is that very question that was the foundation for BuySide Realty. The idea came about when Mr. Fox and his brother Avi flew to California a couple years ago to look for a house. On arrival, a Realtor had them look through a bunch of online listings to see if they liked anything. "Why fly to California to look at images on a computer?" asked Fox. "Our trip was symptomatic of a totally broken business model". Joe Fox and his brother scrapped the idea of buying a house and spent the entire rest of the trip formulating the basis of BuySide Realty.

BuySide Realty operates on the principle that people who find the home they want to buy should get paid for their effort. So BuySide actually shares with the buyer 75% of the commission it receives. This commission sharing can be substantial. On a $500,000 home with a 6% commission spit equally, BuySide Realty would return $11,250 to the buyer of the house. If the commission was split 4% to the buyer's agent (not uncommon in this market) BuySide Realty would return $15,000 to the new home buyer. The largest rebate so far was $40,000.

In 2006, the average BuySide customer received over $11,000 that they otherwise would never see. BuySide keeps the other 25% for providing expert advice from the offer through the closing.

The current perception that BuySide is attempting to change, is that one needs substantial help from a Realtor to buy a house. Mr. Fox offered the following comment about those perceptions: "The NAR has done an excellent job of convincing the consumer they are too stupid to buy a house on their own accord even when their own facts show otherwise".

Just to see how the process works, I registered online and there are plenty of homes right in my own neighborhood to see. Unlike classified ads in places like CraigsList, the homes on BuySide Realty are the same ones you would see in any Realtor's office. BuySide Realty pays fees to the MLS for access to those lists.

Once you register you can print out a business card to hand to the agent at any open house you attend. BuySide will also arrange appointments on your behalf. That is the way to assure you that 75% of the seller's agent commission benefits you rather than unnecessarily padding the pockets of some random agent. Here is an image of the card for Illinois.

Another interesting fact about BuySide Realty's business model is that BuySide agents are paid a regular salary as opposed to the commission based structure in the NAR model. Furthermore the BuySide bonus structure is based entirely on customer satisfaction goals as opposed to sales price. Thus BuySide agents have no vested interest if someone buys a house for $200,000 or $750,000. Instead they have a vested interest in making sure their customer is completely satisfied. "We have had incredibly good feedback from customers" said Fox.

Contrast the BuySide model with the average real estate agent whose primary goal is to get you to buy his listing, listings with the highest commissions, and/or listings with the highest prices.

In the NAR model, given the enormous housing inventory glut, some sellers have resorted to upping already absurd commission rates. I have even seen this advice offered as a tip by Realtors in many articles. Of course those agents are then all too happy to show higher commission generating houses first. "This is just another symptom of a business model broken beyond repair." said Fox. "In contrast, our model is based on service, customer satisfaction, and trust".

The key word in that sentence is trust. How can there be any trust in a model where someone can hop to the front of the showing line simply because they are willing to offer the listing agent a higher commission? A home buyer in the existing NAR model always needs keep this fact in the back of their head at all times.

Another distinguishing feature of the BuySide model is pre-approval not just pre-qualification. Before scheduling a private showing on any listing in their system, a buyers must be pre-approved. If someone can not afford a house they want to look at, it simply will not be shown.

Currently BuySide is doing business in 5 states: Illinois, California, Florida, Virginia, and Georgia. A person in one of those states can save a lot of money by finding a house oneself. BuySide will be rolling out additional states soon and eventually plans to be in all 50 states.

For at least 64% of the population buying a home, there is simply no reason to fork over huge commissions to a real estate agent when that person can instead pocket those commissions himself. When Buyside expands to all 50 states, that is going to result in a big dent in the pockets of real estate agents as buyers flock to take advantage of BuySide's significant improvement over the current business model.

Consider the situation from the point of view of the NAR. Many real estate agents are already stressed over declining sales and falling prices. The rollout of BuySide Realty in all 50 states is going to significantly compound the problems those commission based agents are facing. In California alone one out of every 55 working age adults in California who is a real estate agent. Where are those next commission checks going to come from?

But the problems with the NAR model do not stop there. Tomorrow we will take a look at the sell side of the equation from BuySide's sister organization known as Iggys. I will have some final thoughts at that time as well. Stay tuned.

Note: This post originally appeared in Minyanville along with this announcement.

Minyanville is proud to introduce the newest professor to the mix, Mike Shedlock. Mike Shedlock, or Mish, is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management, an asset management firm. Mish has his own blog called Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, currently the 4th top rated economic blog in the country.

It's a distinct pleasure to be able to join Todd Harrison, the rest of the professors, and all of the critters (especially Sammy and Snapper) at Minyanville. The professors at Minyanville have helped me both personally and professionally. I hope to return that favor to others.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/"; April 06, 2007 8:12 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U; April 06, 2007 8:28 PM
Anonymous said...: You're right on ... and well said.

A house *should not* cost more than 2.5 times (roughly) annual salary.

Now ... when was the last time people could purchase a *decent* home 2.5 times their annual salary?

Greed, speculation and just too many "fingers in the pie" caused housing prices to steadly out-pace wages.

Now, the entire US economy is going to pay dearly for it.

"Ownership Society" ... what a line of BS.

"So...is anyone else here considering the fact that the economy is going to shrink back to what it was maybe in the 1890s? I can't see where if we roll prices back to 1990's levels where anyone could still buy. Who actually has money to buy? And does anyone here think that the vast majority of Americans who lose everything will just sit on their ass and say "oh well"? I'd seriously head for the hills. Even if prices sink back to 1950's prices we still could have trouble, unlike what the "experts" at Ben's blog say. At this point I don't care about the homeowners and the clowns that bought into the bubble, I'd be more concerned with covering my ass and maybe getting your money out of the banks. You might want to kiss your 401Ks goodbye, or start seeing them as 4.01Ks."; April 06, 2007 8:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Is anyone else totally depressed that Keith conflated illegal immigration with a particular ethnic group? No kidding, I feel so pissed/sad that I can't tell anyone about this site without being tagged (correctly) as bigoted. Someone pull him aside and tell him what he sounds like.; April 07, 2007 2:24 AM
Anonymous said...: 50 lenders have now gone kaput

according to Implode - Meter

http://ml-implode.com/; April 07, 2007 4:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Fieldstone Investment Corporation Announces Further Operations Consolidation

Fieldstone Investment Corporation, a mortgage banking company that originates, sells, and invests primarily in non-conforming single-family residential mortgage loans, today announced that it plans to reduce the number of wholesale operations centers from nine to three and to close nine of its smaller retail branch offices.

By continuing to consolidate into fewer, larger operations centers, Fieldstone expects to reduce its operation costs and improve its efficiencies in 2007. Fieldstone will continue to maintain a local sales force to serve brokers in the markets in which its wholesale operations centers are closing.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/
stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/
story/04-06-2007/0004561063&EDATE=; April 07, 2007 4:30 AM
Anonymous said...: American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. issued a profit warning for the first quarter and full year, citing weaker conditions in the secondary mortgage and mortgage-backed securities markets.

Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Strauss said that far fewer buyers are offering much lower prices, both for loan pools and for “AA, “A” and “BBB” rated and residual mortgage securities.

“These changes had a significant, adverse impact on our company’s first quarter results, reducing our gain on sale revenue and causing mark-to-market losses in our portfolio,” said Mr. Strauss, in a statement.

The Melville, L.I. firm cut its first quarter earnings estimates to between 40 and 60 cents a share, after previously calling for a 9% to 15% increase over 2006 quarterly earnings of $1.02. The company also cut 2007 earnings estimates to $3.75 to $4.25 a share from $5.40 to $5.70 a share.

American Home shares fell as much as 3.8% to $25.25 in early trading and were down 1.6% intraday.

Mr. Strauss said the company will try to restore its sales margins through higher consumer interest charges, but that its working assumption must be the current conditions will persist through the end of 2007.

http://www.newyorkbusiness.com/
apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/
20070406/FREE/70406009/1048; April 07, 2007 4:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Sometimes it is better to take a small lost then a big one.

Condo investment are the worst in that when the price fall it could fall as much as 50%. Remember the early 1990 when investors were buying up condo only to find by 1996 they lost half their valve.

Delinquencies are also increasing on investor-owned units, lawyers and property managers said.

At the height of the real estate boom, investors bought properties with the intention of selling for a quick profit. When the market turned, they couldn't sell.

Now, they are renting the units out, sometimes for less than the monthly mortgage. To make up for the shortfall, some choose not to pay condo fees.

"We're starting to see delinquencies where they're not owner-occupied. It's not just a matter of a subprime borrower,"

said Thomas Schild of Thomas Schild Law Group in Rockville, which represents many community associations.

"They were counting on increased equity. That equity is not happening."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04
/06/AR2007040601977_2.html; April 07, 2007 5:03 AM
Anonymous said...: In March, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 180,000 to 137.6 million, after seasonal adjustment.

This increase followed gains of 162,000 in January and 113,000 in February (as revised). Over the year, total nonfarm employment rose by about 2.0 million.

In March, construction employment rose sharply, following a large decline in the prior month. A sizable job gain also occurred in general merchandise stores in March, and job growth continued in health care and in food services. Manufacturing employment continued to trend down over the month.
(See table B-1.)

Construction employment increased by 56,000 in March, mostly offsetting a
decline of 61,000 in February. Unusually adverse weather likely contributed to
February’s decline. Overall, the construction industry has shown no net growth
since employment peaked in September 2006. Over this span, job gains in the
nonresidential components of construction have been more than offset by losses
in the residential components.

Within retail trade, employment in general merchandise stores rose by 36,000 in March and by 81,000 in the first quarter of this year. Despite the recent growth, employment in general merchandise stores was little changed over the year. Elsewhere in retail trade, employment in building material and garden supply stores has declined by 15,000 since reaching its peak in October 2006.

Employment in health care continued to increase in March with a gain of 30,000; over the year, the industry added 348,000 jobs. In March, offices of physicians and hospitals added 9,000 jobs each, while nursing and residential care facilities added 7,000. Food services and drinking places also continued to add jobs in March (+19,000). Over the year, employment in the industry grew by 335,000.

Professional and business services employment was essentially unchanged in March and over the first quarter of 2007. The industry added half a million jobs in 2006.

In March, employment continued to expand in computer system design and in management and technical consulting services, but those job gains were offset by small job losses in accounting and bookkeeping and in employment
services.

Manufacturing employment continued to trend down over the month (-16,000), with declines in furniture and related products (-4,000), computer and electronic products (-4,000), textile mills (-2,000), and paper and paper products (-2,000).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/
empsit.nr0.htm; April 07, 2007 7:57 AM
Anonymous said...: American Home Mortgage Investment Corp ALT-A Lender in TROUBLE.

Can you say "I told you so?"

There are times I hate being right. This would be one of them.

Let's remember - these folks, along with many others in the space, had said "oh no, we didn't make any of those bad loans" and "ALT-A" is safe.

Well, guess what folks? AHM does not and never did write subprime business! They were an ALT-A lender, pure and simple! Yet this is what they said about the market environment for their mortgage-backed security offerings:

"The Company's first quarter results will be adversely affected by lower gain on sale margins. As March progressed, loan pools offered for sale by the Company received relatively few bids at lower than expected prices. As a result, those loans originated by the Company in late February and during March earned lower gain on sale revenues than were anticipated.

The Company's first quarter results will also be adversely affected by write-downs of its portfolio of low investment grade and residual securities. In particular, the Company's approximately $484 million of securities rated "AA", "A" or "BBB" will be written down to account for an unusually large widening in the first quarter of the spread over LIBOR at which these securities trade."

This is going to screw every mortgage lender - AHM has all along claimed to be "immune" to this, and what's even better, people have claimed that their insiders were buying their stock as "proof" they would be ok.

Uh huh.

Oh, by the way Mr. Strauss - perhaps you can tell us where you found the accountant that multiples 40 cents by 4 quarters and gets $2.75?

You might also tell us how you intend to pay a 70 cent dividend quarterly when you only have 40 cents of operating income coming in the door!

The spin isn't totally gone, but its definitely dissipating fast in light of these inconvenient things called facts.

Never mind that just a couple of weeks ago there was "Supplemental Information" published by this very same company which attempted to distance itself from the tsunami that was overtaking lender's share prices! Let's recap that - on March 6th, this is what the company said:

"Due to recent events in the market, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE: AHM - News) believes confusion may have arisen regarding the types of loans it holds and originates. In response, American Home is herewith providing supplemental information by product type regarding the FICO credit scores, the loan to value ratios and mortgage insurance for both its holdings and originations. Additionally, we are providing information regarding our holdings of Pay Option ARM loans including related delinquency statistics." (Original Article)

This was clearly an attempt to differentiate themselves from other firms that had been suffering a severe shellacking of their share prices.

THEY NOW HAVE HAD TO 'FESS UP - THAT "SUPPLEMENTAL" WAS A PUFF PIECE!
Anyone want to bet on the direction of AHM's stock price Monday morning? And wasn't it nice to release this on Good Friday, when the markets were closed?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net; April 07, 2007 8:28 AM
Anonymous said...: American Home Mortgage Investment Corp

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE: AHM) a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the investment and origination of residential mortgage loans in the United States.

The company primarily originates and sells securitized adjustable-rate mortgage loans, as well as engages in the sale of mortgage loans to institutional investors and servicing mortgage loans owned by others.

Its products also comprise conventional conforming fixed rate loans, alternate "A" loans, jumbo fixed rate loans, home equity or second mortgage loans, government fixed rate loans, non-prime loans, construction loans, and bridge loans.

The company has elected to be treated as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders.

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Melville, New York. With 50.19 million shares outstanding and 12.44 million shares declared short as of February 2007, the failure to deliver in shares of AHM has not been resolved and a buy-in is imminent.

http://www.buyins.net/press/
nakedshort/2007/03/
PR_2007-03-21_on13_1.htm; April 07, 2007 8:57 AM
Anonymous said...: You'd be surprised ... alot of
people.

Didn't this happen on earth around 20 years ago?

It's good to keep in mind that the "experts" have to keep pumping out this garbage to maintain their
academic positions - useless hot air in reality.

Things are *not* getting better by the simplefact that more and more people are being forced out onto the streets.

Doesn't take an "expert" to see what's really going on.

"who will believe this?

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers ramped up hiring in March
employers boosted their payrolls by a strong 180,000
Workers' also saw their paychecks get bigger
The 4.4 percent unemployment rate
Construction companies added 56,000 positions last month

Which Planet they are talking about?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070406/economy.html?.v=17"; April 07, 2007 5:35 PM
Anonymous said...: “All Real Estate Markets Are Local”

Are large production (Traditional Home) builders willing to make money for their share holders and push out the small (Mom and Pop Home) builders by building in hot spots like Austin, Texas and Bay Area, California.

As long as money is cheap, speculators will be able to get loans and home closings will still remain strong.

Homebuilders began construction on 3,327 homes in the quarter that ended March 31, according to research group Residential Strategies Inc. That's down from the 4,613 starts recorded during the first quarter of 2006, and a decrease of 4.6 percent from fourth quarter 2006 totals.

Still, closings of newly constructed homes are on the rise significantly. Builders closed on 4,049 units in the first quarter, up 4.3 percent from first quarter 2006.

http://austin.bizjournals.com/
austin/stories/2007/04/02/
daily31.html

These numbers reflects that despite a construction slowdown for large production builders, small builders whom do not have the larger overhead are still doing well and hiring people. This was reflected in March BLS employment numbers as construction added the most people.

Despite the solid performance, large production builders remain wary about the market. The fallout of the subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets that are dominating the scene on the East and West Coasts is adding to the construction slowdown for tradition large home builders.

The fallout of the subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets evens out the playing field for up and coming small builders to make their move to take out the large production builders in their cities. Why should a local construction company (the General Contractor) do all of the work and partner up with a tradition large home builders to get 50% of the profit when the local construction company knows it can make 100% of the profit if the tradition large home builders are not willing to take the risk to put up with the up front money to develop the land.

Also the large production builders are battling inventory issues elsewhere in the country and are thus conservative right now in their initiation specs.

The combined effect of the fallout of the subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets, battling inventory issues, and small builders making their move posed a serious threat to large production builders as they fight for their own survival.

It is true that “All Real Estate Markets Are Local” so when the National macro economical trends of “Inflation,” “Flow of Funds,” and “Interest Rate” are taken out of the picture then the Local micro economical trends of “Migration,” “Job Growth,” “Path of Progression,” and “New Constructions” takes over. Therefore, the smart local construction companies who understand this concept will dominate the home builder market to become the next tradition large home builders.; April 07, 2007 8:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing Starts Pick Up in Hot Spots like the Bay Area.

In the first two months of the year, single-family home-building activity in the East Bay and Peninsula picked up.

Builders pulled 750 single-family housing permits in January and February in the East Bay, up 5 percent from the same period last year, according to the California Building Industry Association.

The San Francisco metro area, which includes San Mateo County, had 99 single-family housing permits in January and February, a 10 percent increase.

"We don't see the kind of precipitous decline we see at the state level in the East Bay in terms of single-family (homes), and that's encouraging. It also speaks to the fact that demand is still there," Perkins said.

Just ask KB Home. Its new-home sales in Danville, San Ramon and the San Jose region were up 15 percent ina three-month period ending Feb. 28 compared with the same quarter a year ago, said Marc Burnstein, vice president of sales and marketing for KB's Bay Area division.

As a result, KB has pulled more single-family permits in the first part of 2007 than last year, he said. "We are very strong in Danville and San Ramon. Sales activity has improved tremendously in those areas. Future permits are typically driven by sales," Burnstein said.

http://www.builderonline.com/
industry-news.asp?sectionID=
26&articleID=466285; April 07, 2007 8:43 PM
Anonymous said...: What the talking heads (our media in general) are saying is that the *hope* is that only the middle-class and poor get hit by the tsunami that's coming - but in reality, it will hit the *entire* economy.

While a tax bailout may be in the works, it will be far too late
for the country as a whole.

We're just seeing the fringe of the problem - the big wave is coming soon, and there is no stopping it, or containing it to a certain economic class within this country.

"wow! talk about unwinding. gee, look at the article about century on mortgageimplode.....the stuff is starting to float to the top now. how are the talking heads on tv and elsewhere going to sooth this one over. this century bankruptcy is much bigger than has been portrayed. now , how can they hide such losses? and how can they say that this thing will not affect other areas in the markets and the economy? let us us see how the stock market talking heads, handle this little problem tomorrow, since they are closed on
Good Friday."; April 07, 2007 8:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Will regulators enforce tougher standards for the Commercial Real Estate Loans sector before it becomes another problem.

Now is the time to act for regulators, but most likely they will not.

Aggressive U.S. CMBS Underwriting Will Lead to More Loan Defaults

Increases in U.S. commercial real estate cash flows over the past several years suggest a new paradigm to some lenders. The recent subprime downturn should caution investors about the dangers of mixing aggressive underwriting with reliance on continued price appreciation. This combination will lead to 15% greater defaults on the 2007 vintage loans, according to Fitch Ratings.

Commercial real estate debt has become increasingly attractive as a diversification opportunity for investors. The availability of capital, development of new structures and increased competition for product has created great liquidity for higher leverage debt. Today, many properties are purchased and financed with virtually no equity. Loan to value ratios often exceed 100% and, when considering the entire amount of debt on a property, Fitch is seeing more loans where actual debt service shortfalls exist at the outset. Some owners are borrowing greater amounts upfront to pay current debt service. This forces CMBS investors to bet that cash flows at the property will improve quickly enough so that the property will be self-sustaining once the upfront reserves are fully drawn.

The momentum of the current CMBS lending market has resulted in many negative underwriting practices. In its own analysis, Fitch examines relevant market data and key structural features in order to properly evaluate and stress income performance. In general, Fitch will not underwrite long term rental growth as income today, but rather will focus on in-place income.

'Experience has taught us that continuously upward trending rents and real estate values are not guaranteed,' said Managing Director Zanda Lynn. 'In the overly optimistic view of the current market, future corrections or economic fluctuations are not contemplated.'

'Real estate professionals are structuring loans today with the expectation that cash flow will continue to rise in a commercial real estate market that has already experienced dramatic upward trends,' added Senior Director Eric Rothfeld. 'Both the risks and rewards of increases in property cash flow are borne by the equity investor. When the economics are realized, increases in value materialize. However, Fitch is seeing the market financing the higher value prematurely, based on the expectation that it will occur, but well before it does or does not come to exist.'

Recent struggles, and in some cases defaults, in the condo conversion market are viewed by Fitch as an indication of the danger of relying on valuations predicated on significant future value growth. When this property type first entered the CMBS market in 2005, Fitch expressed concerns over the long term prospects of this asset class, in particular, the lack of sustainable cash flow. Recently, Fitch has begun to see delinquencies and defaults of condo loans in the CMBS market. Sales of condos have slowed or stalled in many markets, including South Florida, Manhattan and Las Vegas. Many projects have been canceled (some mid-construction) and others have been turned into or reverted back to rentals. The rental value of the properties is usually significantly less than the anticipated conversion value, and therefore many developers are not able to meet debt obligations. The implications of arrested growth in the condo market must be acknowledged when underwriting all other CMBS property types.

http://home.businesswire.com/
portal/site/google/
index.jsp?ndmViewId=
news_view&newsId=20070402005827
&newsLang=en; April 08, 2007 12:59 AM
Anonymous said...: IRS Targets Down-Payment-Assistance Scams; Seller-Funded Programs Do Not Qualify As Tax Exempt

http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/
article/0,,id=156675,00.html

Organizations that provide seller-funded down-payment assistance to home buyers do not qualify as tax-exempt charities, the Internal Revenue Service said in a ruling released today.

Down-payment-assistance programs provide cash assistance to homebuyers who cannot afford to make the minimum down payment or pay the closing costs involved in obtaining a mortgage. Such programs can qualify as tax-exempt charitable and educational organizations under Internal Revenue Code section 501(c)(3) when properly structured and operated. In Revenue Ruling 2006-27, released today, the IRS provides a detailed discussion of the guidelines – including two examples that meet – and one that fails to meet – the tests for exemption.

The ruling makes it clear that seller-funded programs are not charities because they do not meet the requirements of section 501(c)(3). Increasingly, the IRS has found that organizations claiming to be charities are being used to funnel down-payment assistance from sellers to buyers through self-serving, circular-financing arrangements. In a typical scheme, there is a direct correlation between the amount of the down-payment assistance provided to the buyer and the payment received from the seller. Moreover, the seller pays the organization only if the sale closes, and the organization usually charges an additional fee for its services.

A March 2005 report entitled, “An Examination of Downpayment Gift Programs Administered By Non-Profit Organizations,” commissioned by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), found that seller-funded down-payment assistance has led to underwriting problems and resulted in an increase in the effective cost of homeownership. A report from November 2005 entitled, “Mortgage Financing: Additional Action Needed to Manage Risks of FHA-Insured Loans with Down Payment Assistance,” conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) found similar results.

“The IRS is increasingly concerned with organizations that are taking advantage of homebuyers who need assistance for a down payment to realize the American dream of homeownership,” said IRS Commissioner Mark W. Everson. “So-called charities that manipulate the system do more than mislead honest homebuyers and ultimately jack up the cost of the home. They also damage the image of honest, legitimate charities.”

The IRS is examining 185 organizations that operate down-payment-assistance programs. A particular organization’s tax-exempt status can be verified using the on-line database at irs.gov (click on “Charities & Non-Profits” and then click on “Search for Charities”). In addition, the agency has denied applications for tax exemption from over 20 organizations that seek to provide this service and is considering applications from a number of other down-payment assistance organizations.

Revenue Ruling 2006-27 will be published in Internal Revenue Bulletin 2006-21, dated May 22, 2006.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/
rr-06-27.pdf; April 08, 2007 1:26 AM
Anonymous said...: Reporting Suspected Tax Fraud Activity

During the filing season buzz of preparing returns and talking with clients or potential clients, you may encounter individuals or companies that are not complying with the tax laws. The IRS is committed to increasing compliance and encourages you to report noncompliant taxpayers by completing Form 3949-A or writing a letter and mailing the information to: Internal Revenue Service, Fresno, California 93888.

Although not all inclusive, activities in violation of the tax laws include:

* Deliberately underreporting or omitting income.

* Overstating deductions.

* Keeping multiple sets of books.

* Making false entries in books and records.

* Claiming personal expenses as business expenses.

* Claiming false deductions.

* Hiding or transferring assets or income.

If you choose to send a letter instead of Form 3949-A, include the following information, if available:

* Name and address of the person you are reporting.

* The taxpayer identification number (social security number for an individual or employer identification number for a business).

* A brief description of the alleged violation, including how you became aware of or obtained the information.

* The years involved.

* The estimated dollar amount of any unreported income.

* Your name, address, and daytime telephone number.

You are not required to identify yourself when reporting suspected tax fraud activity; but, it is helpful to do so. Keep in mind that your identity can be kept confidential, and you may be entitled to a reward.

http://www.irs.gov/businesses/
small/article/0,,id=168257,00.html; April 08, 2007 1:38 AM
Anonymous said...: The U.S. dollar collapsed to two-year lows against the euro as the Federal Reserve (Fed) takes its focus away from fighting inflation. The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability as well as full employment. With unemployment hovering near historic lows, why does the Fed neglect its mandate to fight inflation, thereby jeopardizing the dollar?

Inflation has been creeping up throughout the economy, now showing up even in the “core inflation” statistics the Fed pays particular attention to. At the same time, the signs of an economic slowdown become ever more apparent. Fighting a slowing economy versus fighting rising inflation require diametrically opposed monetary policies. Given the low unemployment rate, rather serious reasons must exist for the Fed to deviate from its mandate to fight inflation. It is the Fed’s role to take away the punchbowl when excesses are created in the economy. Over the past decade, the Fed has lost focus of its mission, blinded by misunderstood dynamics introduced by the internet and globalization.

In numerous speeches in recent weeks, the Fed has been trying to convince the markets that it is just normal for inflation to peak after the economy peaks. The problem, of course, is if inflation does not abate as the economy slows down, i.e. if we enter a 1970s period of stagflation. We believe that fighting a credit contraction induced by market forces through stimulative policies will lead us to such a stagflationary environment; the Fed seems to hope that the forces of globalization will keep inflation statistics at bay. The Fed’s “increased transparency” is nothing but increased expectations management. The Fed’s role is not to manage expectations, but to manage fundamentals; the mere fact that expectations are ever more important shows that something is wrong with the fundamentals.

When money supply is increased, this money will flow somewhere; we are afraid that sooner rather than later, it will foremost push up inflation. The Fed may think that it knows how to fight inflation should it become a serious issue; but the further we press on with growth at any cost, the cost of correcting the course becomes ever greater.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/
pebble.asp?relid=30309; April 08, 2007 7:44 AM
Anonymous said...: The VICTIMS who lost to subprime lenders are victims of their own choosing. They gambled and lost. Sometimes it's tragic, but they didn't have to gamble.

Homeowners with low to moderate incomes and who didn't put down large down payments will likely be the most at risk of defaulting on subprime.

But most of these VICTIMS that are at risk of defaulting on subprime did not have any down payments, so who are these people that call these gamblers VICTIMS, because these gamblers were never homeowners.

For the most part these gamblers got in at a low monthly payment equivalent to rent. These gamblers credit were not good, but subprime lenders who were able to make allots of money on subprime loans didn't care.

So perhaps the one that has the most to lose (subprime lenders and their lobbyist group) are calling these gamblers VICTIMS, because the subprime lenders know that they will have to do what many of us do on a daily basis - work a honest job and make a honest living.

So if analysts predict that the turmoil in the subprime mortgage is unlikely to affect bank earnings and these gamblers go back to become renters, then the Fed should have no reasons to not be able to raise interest rate.; April 08, 2007 8:19 AM
Anonymous said...: The former auditor for subprime lender Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., was prepared to disclose its doubts that the company could survive, according to a filing Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In a loan agreement filed with the SEC, the beleaguered mortgage bank referred to a “going concern qualification” from Grant Thornton LLP, the accounting firm that resigned as Accredited's auditor on March 27.

Accredited arranged $1.1 billion in financing Tuesday on top of $230 million it previously borrowed from hedge fund Farallon Capital Management. In that loan agreement, Accredited disclosed the going concern qualification in Grant Thornton's audit opinion in the annual report.

Accredited Home Lenders and Grant Thornton could not be reached for comment. Farallon Capital Management declined to comment.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George said some investors would be surprised if Accredited's auditor issued a going concern qualification. The company has better liquidity and access to credit than other subprime lenders that have gone bankrupt this year.

Often released with a company's annual report, a going concern qualification is an auditor's determination that a company might go bankrupt within the next 12 months.

As loan defaults and foreclosures spike, subprime mortgage companies are fighting for survival. About two dozen subprime lenders have gone out of business this year as sagging home prices and a spike in payment defaults have soured investors on mortgage debt. Fellow subprime lender New Century Financial Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news
/business/20070405-1349-
accreditedhomelenders-auditor.html; April 08, 2007 8:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Market Negativity Causes CDS Spreads to Reverse Direction as Volumes Keep Expanding, Fitch Says

The tightening of credit default swap spreads seen last year and early in 2007 have “widened substantially” since the end of February due to a “confluence of negative market events,” according to the latest CDS Roundup issued by Derivative Fitch.

http://www.imfpubs.com/issues/
imfpubs_ima/2007_14/news/
1000005814-1.html; April 08, 2007 8:39 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Reporting Suspected Tax Fraud Activity
______________

Anyone here report Iamfacingforeclosure.com
tell us about it.; April 08, 2007 2:12 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: *hope* is that only the middle-class and poor get hit by the tsunami that's coming -
____________
God forbid it should hit the rich people or corporations.
Thank goodness these entities may be spared, as the middle class and the poor are in a better position to absorb this financial burden.
Have a nice day.; April 08, 2007 2:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Time4Bailout; April 08, 2007 7:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Interesting email from a friend.
Niskayuna is a suburb of Albany, New York.
How to Lose $230K in Niskayuna Real Estate in 6 Months

In 2005, the house next door sat on the market for eight months because of the failure of the lazy blow-hard owner [a local TV newscaster] to do any maintenance for 6 years on a previously pristine property. Basically, the house was overpriced and under-maintained to put it mildly. Nevertheless, in Oct 2005 the house was, incredibly, bought for the full asking price of $315K with a no-money down "liar's loan" by a young woman who seemed on the surface to be financially well off as judged by the $50,000 SUV that she was driving. Five days later, she put the house back on the market for $365K in an attempt to flip the house for a quick $50,000 profit.

When the house failed to sell immediately (our housing market coincidentally topped out in October 2005 when she bought), she temporarily rented the house over the winter of 2005-2006. The renters were a couple of young dudes with fancy cars and no apparent jobs or means of support, one of whom was her sometime boyfriend. You can make a good guess at their off-the-books occupations. She kicked them out in the early spring of 2006 when real estate agents complained about them making the house hard to sell because they were living on mattresses sprawled around the floors and were there all of the time.

A few months later in the late spring of 2006, the For-Sale sign disappeared from the lawn. Presumably, foreclosure proceedings by the bank making the loan for the house purchase had gone far enough that the "owner" could no longer legally sell the house. My guess is that she never made a single mortgage payment to the bank or tax payment to the town. She was the nominal owner for just 6 months and it would take at least 6 months of no payments before a successful foreclosure could be accomplished. At this point, she held a huge party at the house with an open swimming pool for all of her friends. Then she apparently just walked away and abandoned the house.

Fast forward to one year later and the house is now for sale for only $85K.

Before you put in your bids, here is the rest of the story. The house remained abandoned. No attempt was made to sell it. No one bothered to turn on the furnace for this winter. Everything was OK until this February because of the unusually warm weather up until then. In February, the cold weather came and the pipes and toilets in the house froze and split and the house was flooded continuously by running water for days. It took some time before neighbors noticed the problem from the outside--large icefalls coming out of each window. The flooding had filled all of the internal downstair wall cavities which in turn leaked out from around the windows and formed the external icefalls. All of the downstairs hard wood floors were continuously covered with an inch of water. Nobody, including the Town of Niskayuna, knew who owned the house or whom to contact to get inside. The house was either in legal limbo or owned in the form of derivative tranches by various disembodied legal entities.

A neighbor retrieving his runaway dog from the side of the house was the first to notice that something was wrong and called the town. The town came and turned off the water in the street. Unfortunately, no one ever showed up to turn off the main water valve in the basement of the house, drain the pipes, turn the furnace on, clear the fallen wet soggy fallen ceilings or to mop up the inside. To add to this mess, the town street valve was defective and water continued to leak into the house for another 8 weeks. The wooden downstairs floors are now buckled and the drywall ceiling in the kitchen has collapsed. What is going on inside of the walls and in the cellar is unknown. All of this mess has been cooking in the spring sun for the last 4 weeks.

As a final irony, in the middle of this mess, an expensive black grand piano sits in the middle of the otherwise empty living room. It was abandoned for unknown reasons by the original owner [the TV newscaster] when he moved. I never heard it played once and it always had the keyboard taped shut with duct tape. At a minimum, all of the iron piano wires and cast iron frame must be rusted. In addition, the pin block and sounding board have probably swollen and split. So add the price of a grand piano to the total.

At long last, the owner, rumored to be SunTrust Bank, sent someone out yesterday. He was just what the house needed, another real estate agent! The house has a swimming pool but it has not been maintained for a number of years and looks it.

Since house lots are selling for about $100K around here and houses can be torn down for about $15K, the asking price of $85K represents just the value of the building lot.

This is probably a microcosm of things going on elsewhere in the housing market because of irresponsible lending policies by banks and irresponsible behavior by borrowers and speculators using seemingly "free" money.

-Wow! Who really got screwed here?; April 09, 2007 1:04 AM
Anonymous said...: In one recent case, a consumer paid $80,000 for a home but got a loan for $159,000.

“I don’t know what she did with all of that money, but she suddenly ran into problems,’’ Ms. Ferringer said. “The house is in foreclosure now, and the woman had to file for bankruptcy.’’

http://www.sharon-herald.com/local/local_story_097191324.html?start:int=15; April 09, 2007 2:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Japans government and BoJ are playing a dangerous game with their citizens future standard of living and economy,
zero rate/inflation and rising costs of living, no wage hikes for 3 years, almost no yields on savings.

People get financially choked over there, private consumption falling off a cliff at the moment, savings undermined, for how long can this madness go on to favour exporters and financial elite? This already has lasted for several years,
a lot of disagreements and serious discussions on this rate issue/weak yen probably are going on right now within and between the Jap. Gov./BoJ.

This can't go on for much longer, or Japan will face a serious economic depression.

Today, yen took another dive, with more yen carry trade on today's menu, propping up the Nikkei 225,

but The Nikkei Jasdaq Average of medium/small companies, reflecting domestic demand and economic reality inside Japan, still looks weak and has been in decline since ult. 2005.

http://boards.prudentbear.com/
bbs_read.asp?mid=497152&tid=
497152&fid=1&start=1&sr=1&sb=
1&snsa=A#M497152; April 09, 2007 6:35 AM
Anonymous said...: WAMU ABOUT TO SNEEZE AND CATCH A COLD

Get ready, if you own property in the USA, to take another 10% to 20% hit on your home equity, and if you haven't sold yet, you may not be able to any time soon without shorting your own mortgage, especially if home values drop below your current outstanding mortgage balances.

Both Downey Savings and Washington Mutual are about to catch a cold, perhaps go into a fatal fever and wind up in shot gun weddings with healthier, more financially honest and sound institutions.

Washington Mutual in particular has resorted to some very strange business tactics of late, double charging some customers who have overdrafts, switching accounts which had overdraft protection to no overdraft protection without informing their customers, and in general not acting in a customer friendly oriented fashion.

http://www.americanchronicle.com/
articles/viewArticle.asp?
articleID=23821; April 09, 2007 6:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Not too long ago.

Can it happen again?

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/
historical/managing/history2-04.pdf; April 09, 2007 6:48 AM
Anonymous said...: "Since house lots are selling for about $100K around here and houses can be torn down for about $15K, the asking price of $85K represents just the value of the building lot.

This is probably a microcosm of things going on elsewhere in the housing market because of irresponsible lending policies by banks and irresponsible behavior by borrowers and speculators using seemingly "free" money."

This is what happens when fly-by-night banks loan to white trash women without checking their credentials. The bank deserves to lose big time for their own stupidity.; April 09, 2007 2:00 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Stick a fork in it.

Housing Slump Pinches States In Pocketbook

By ABBY GOODNOUGH The New York Times

Published: Apr 8, 2007

TBO.com

MIAMI - State tax revenues around the country are growing far more slowly this year and in some cases falling below projections, a result of the housing market slowdown that has curbed voracious spending on real estate, building materials, furniture and other items.

Nowhere is the downturn more apparent than in Florida, where tax revenue is projected to drop this year for the first time since the energy crisis of the 1970s.

Other states, especially those where housing prices soared in recent years, are seeing their collections slow as well, especially in the sales and real estate transfer tax categories. Though the economy remains generally strong and it is too early to predict whether the housing slump will have long-term effects, some states will have to adjust their wish lists.

New Jersey could face a $2.5 billion shortfall by mid-2008, Gov. Jon S. Corzine has said, and may lease its turnpike or its lottery to a private company to raise money.

In California, where income tax receipts in January were $1 billion less than forecast, a legislative analyst has urged budget cuts and warned that the state could have about $2 billion less in revenue this year and next than Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has projected.

"It's the year of the housing hangover," said Sean M. Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida.

New-home sales nationally fell in February to the lowest rate in seven years, and homeowners who tapped into home equity and spent extravagantly during the housing boom have started to cut back.

Those events threaten revenue streams for things such as building materials and labor, and affect spending on big-ticket items such as cars and furniture, which many homeowners financed with home equity lines of credit.

Chris McCarty, survey research director at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida, said it would be foolish to "underestimate the effect that the inability to extract equity from homes is going to have."

In one hint of how much Floridians were relying on property wealth during the real estate boom, 16 percent of new car purchases here were being made with home equity loans in 2006, compared with 7 percent nationally, according to CNW Marketing Research, an automotive research firm in Bandon, Ore. In California, the percentage was even higher - about 30 percent, said Art Spinella, the firm's president.

Some budget watchers say Florida, where the housing boom was prolonged and intensified by rebuilding after destructive hurricanes, could be the "canary in the coal mine" for other states anticipating housing-related economic woes. Last spring, nine of the 20 metropolitan areas that saw the sharpest home price appreciation were in Florida, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight; many of those now watching home values plummet are in Florida, too.

Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, the chief beneficiaries of the housing rush, also are expected to suffer disproportionately from the slump. From late 2005 to late 2006, existing home sales fell by 21 percent in California, 27 percent in Arizona, 31 percent in Florida and 36 percent in Nevada, the steepest drop in the nation.

Maryland's real estate transfer tax revenue has tumbled by 22 percent this fiscal year, suggesting that fewer homes are being sold, prices have fallen or both. Connecticut's real estate transfer tax revenue, which state budget analysts predicted would fall by 3.6 percent, is down by 13.3 percent so far.

Some states have defied the trend, chiefly among them New York, where the housing market has been bolstered by sales in Manhattan. The prices and number of apartments selling in Manhattan rose in the first three months of this year, according to data released last week by several of New York City's largest real estate brokerages.

Healthy reserves built up over the past few years and stable economic conditions outside the housing sector could cushion the blow for many states, at least for now.

"The tendency is for people to say, 'Wow, things look pretty good, except for housing,'" said Richard Nathan, co-director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany, N.Y. "But that is a very big exception, because it has a large impact on people's perceptions of what they feel their asset capability is."; April 09, 2007 2:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,
Easter is over, you may be curious what HP talk turned up around the dinner table. Here's my story:

My brother in law's brother sold his close-in starter home at the peak of the bubble (which he bought in 2001/2002?). But he traded up to something even more deadly at the same time. Now he's in new construction, 700K mini McMansion an hour from the subburbs; family income: I am guessing around 135K. 2 newborn kids, works for bubblicious defense contractor.

Noone thought that was too much to spend or risky or overkill for a young family just getting started. In fact, all reactions were positive - good for him, the prices can only go up, ... I said nothing. After all it was Easter.; April 09, 2007 2:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Kieth:

Here you go if you have not seen it- CNN questioning who gets the blame for the subprime game...

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/real_estate/0704/gallery.paly_the_subprime_blame_game/index.html; April 09, 2007 6:30 PM
Anonymous said...: When the stock market crashes and sends the country into a depression; do you think the stock brokers will have the decency to commit suicide this time around?; April 09, 2007 6:36 PM
Anonymous said...: If the Duke University's mens Lacrosse team are rapists.....

then I guess Rutgers women basketballers can be nappy-headed ho's!; April 10, 2007 2:57 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/08/us/08housing.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

link taken from mortgageimplode.com

well looks like the big feast called housing cost inflation is coming to a end for the state property taxes. too bad.....poetic justice if you ask me...these bastards have had it their way for way too long, raising property tax rates because properties have gone up in value , year to year. so now, the reverse must be true also....too bad.....state governments and county governments having to balance their budgets and trim their spending.........aw.....too bad.......; April 10, 2007 3:31 AM
Anonymous said...: all day Tuesday on CNBC: Why it's a great time to buy a home!

You've got to be kidding!!!

Has the NAR ponied up a million to push sh*t on the public?

Have their anchors, reporters, producers, etc. no honor whatsoever????

IT IS TOTALLY DISHONEST TO PUSH THIS BECAUSE CRAZY FINANCING IS GONE. SOMEONE CALL THE VATICAN TO PERFORM AN EXORCISM ON CNBC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!; April 10, 2007 3:32 AM
Anonymous said...: "When the stock market crashes and sends the country into a depression; do you think the stock brokers will have the decency to commit suicide this time around?"

jumping out of windows in high rise office buildings would be a nice touch....; April 10, 2007 3:32 AM
Anonymous said...: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070409/american_home_mortgage_out_of_the_gate.html?.v=2

american home mortgage gets downgraded by everyone except goldman sachs.....gee i wonder why?; April 10, 2007 3:39 AM
Anonymous said...: ``If we have a continued house-price decline, Alt-A will be more affected'' than subprime mortgages, said Howard Hill, a managing director in Springfield, Massachusetts at Babson Capital Management LLC. Hill said Alt-A lenders were more likely to combine low documentation and low down payments, and more likely to have extended mortgages to speculators, while offering less protection for bondholders.

Layers

Such layering of risks is ``two to four times as common in Alt-A deals as in subprime deals,'' Hill said. His unit of MassMutual Financial Group manages about $30 billion of mortgage- and asset-backed bonds, and Hill also oversees investments in the stocks of mortgage-lending REITs, including American Home and Kansas City, Missouri-based NovaStar Financial Inc.

Some Alt-A loans require no down payment or proof of income, and they're often used to buy a second home or rental unit as well as speculation. Also falling into the category are interest- only loans and ``option'' adjustable-rate mortgages, whose minimum payments can fail to cover the interest owed.

Mortgages are categorized as Alt-A when they fall just short of the typical standards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest U.S. sources of mortgage money. Some lenders require a credit score of more than 700 for an Alt-A loan, while others will accept a score as low as 620. The maximum score is 850.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
aCcktIgjSO6U&refer=home; April 10, 2007 5:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Will the Bank of Japan spring a surprise?

The Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting will end tomorrow, and the bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.50%, but expectations are growing that it may signal plans for a rate hike before legislative elections in July, which is keeping the Japanese yen afloat.

http://www.gracecheng.com/blog/
348/Will%20the%20Bank%20of
%20Japan%20spring%20a%
20surprise?.html

Forex speculators were actived shorting the Dollar today.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/
?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w; April 10, 2007 5:35 AM
Lost Cause said...: Housing Boom Tied To Sham Mortgages
Lax Lending Aided Real Estate Fraud

By David Cho
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, April 10, 2007; Page A01

ATLANTA -- The man was one slick fraud artist.

Phillip Hill lured people to fancy cocktail parties in a $1.9 million mansion. He asked to use their names and credit histories in real estate deals, promising to make them rich. Most got $10,000 checks on the spot for signing up.

By the time the scam unraveled, the credit of those participants had been ruined, hundreds of upscale properties had fallen into foreclosure and real estate prices had plummeted in some of this city's most exclusive neighborhoods. Hill is about to go to federal prison.

Many experts have concluded that the nation's real estate boom of recent years was fueled in part by weakened lending standards that sparked excessive demand and drove up prices. Now, some are worried that the looser standards may have permitted a boom of another kind -- a big expansion of mortgage fraud.; April 10, 2007 5:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Dollar Falls on Concern Trade Tensions With China Will Escalate

The dollar fell after the U.S. government said it will file complaints against China to the World Trade Organization, raising concern the dispute will escalate and slow economic growth.

The U.S. currency snapped three days of gains against the yen as China may retaliate to any punishment of alleged infringement of U.S. copyrighted goods. Heightened tension also may prompt China to reduce purchases of U.S. assets with its more than $1 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.

``The protectionist attitude of the U.S. is a downside risk for global growth and will hurt the dollar,'' said George Kapasakis, a senior foreign-exchange trader at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Sydney. ``China may turn around and say `if you hurt our economy, we will hurt yours by withdrawing liquidity.'''

Losses in the dollar accelerated after the euro rose above $1.3400 and the yen gained beyond 119.00, triggering pre-set orders to buy both currencies, said Lee Wai Tuck, currency strategist at Forecast Singapore Ltd. Investors often place automatic instructions in case bets go wrong.

The U.S. currency's decline may extend to $1.3500 should it weaken beyond $1.3450 versus the euro, where traders have placed more orders to sell, Lee also said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
a3maDLt2TvAg&refer=home; April 10, 2007 6:09 AM
Anonymous said...: I love this ad. This guy just low balled an entire city. Is it possible to do the same thing with all of Southern California?

http://inlandempire.craigslist.org/rfs/308025908.html; April 10, 2007 6:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Bush Administration wants a Weaker Dollar and Higher Inflation.

Is this the beginning of the collapse of the US Dollar? M3 must be off the chart, if M3 was still being printed.

So why don't BOJ raise interest rate and help the Bush Administration weaken the Dollar some more.

Despite testimony last week from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggesting that inflation remains the Fed's "predominant" concern, the dollar finished the week lower against the yen and Euro. The reason for the drop is the Commerce Department's announcement of new tariffs on coated paper imports from China. While not explicit, the move by the Bush Administration was a signal to the markets that it wanted a weaker dollar, and so the dollar fell accordingly.

Even though the Fed has hiked rates 425 basis point since June 2004, steel and lumber tariffs in 2002, persistent jawboning of China about the supposedly undervalued yuan, and further tariffs on shrimp and paper have made it clear that the Bush Administration speaks with a forked tongue when it comes to currency strength. Its actions on trade have regularly communicated to the markets a desire for a weaker dollar, which has has trumped any efforts by the Fed to strengthen it.

The lesson for the U.S. is that so long as the Bush Administration makes plain that it wants a weaker dollar, no amount of rate hikes by the Fed will overcome this reality.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
articles/2007/04/
politics_trumps_fed_policy.html; April 10, 2007 6:30 AM
Anonymous said...: If Treasury Henry Paulson and the Bush Administration do not care about the weaker Dollar why should you.

Forex speculators know it is time to make easy money by shorting the Dollar.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/
?s=NYBOT_DX

Remember November 2003 when Treasury John Snows and Bush Administration talked down the Dollar to weaken it, Guess what Treasury Henry Paulson is keeping silent as Dollar's Drop.

The dollar's slide may be coming at the right time for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

American exports, made more competitive by a weaker currency, are helping prop up economic growth, offsetting slumps in housing and corporate spending. The euro's 2.5 percent gain since the end of January, meanwhile, should help Trichet combat inflation, complementing the ECB's interest-rate increases.

Europe's economy is better able to absorb any impact on its own exports, unlike in prior euro rallies that caused European central bankers and politicians to protest. The silence from Paulson and Trichet suggests ministers from the Group of Seven major industrial nations may avoid commenting on the dollar when they meet in Washington this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601103&sid=
ab4j1z8k4ICI&refer=us; April 10, 2007 6:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Fears raised that subprime crisis could spread.

American Home Mortgage Investment falls 18%, rasing concerns that subprime debacle is not contained.

Shares in American Home Mortgage Investment fell 18 per cent in New York today after the real estate investment trust cut its dividend and 2007 profit forecasts and flagged a dearth of buyers for its loans.

The move sparked fears that the weakness that has ravaged the sub-prime market could be spreading to higher-quality loans.

Bruce Harting, the Lehman Brothers analyst, wrote in a note: “We suspect American Home’s disappointing change in its guidance will cause investors to take a closer look at whether [it] could soon find itself in similar straits as the subprime lenders.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/business/markets/
article1632404.ece; April 10, 2007 6:53 AM
Anonymous said...: The dollar came under pressure broadly and dipped from a six-week high against the yen on Tuesday, as investors took profits ahead of a meeting of Group of Seven finance officials later in the week.

Traders said this week's big theme will be any yen-friendly comments leading up to Friday's G7 meeting.

G7 officials in the past have said yen weakness runs counter to Japan's economic recovery and warned investors they could be burned making such one-way currency bets.

The Australian dollar soared against the dollar to 82.30 U.S. cents, rising 0.8 percent to hit its highest since 1990. Traders said robust economic data fanned speculation that Australia's central bank will increase interest rates next month.

http://today.reuters.com/news/
articleinvesting.aspx?type=
hotStocksNews&storyID=
2007-04-10T033520Z_01_
T283306_RTRUKOC_0_
US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml&WTmodLoc=
NewsHome-C3-hotStocksNews-3; April 10, 2007 7:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Fitch Revises Hovnanian's Outlook to Negative.

The Negative Outlook for HOV reflects the more challenging outlook for homebuilders, the current and expected near term deterioration in credit metrics for the company which are similar to the trends being experienced by others in the industry, and pressures from credit tightening in the mortgage markets, which particularly affect the entry level buyer, as well as high cancellation rates, which add to speculative inventory totals.

http://home.businesswire.com/
portal/site/google/
index.jsp?ndmViewId=
news_view&newsId=
20070409005834&newsLang=en; April 10, 2007 8:00 AM
Anonymous said...: The housing bubble in Britain is different to that in the US:
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2052755,00.html

... and yet ...
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2053290,00.html

At the coalface (District Judges' repossession hearings), borrowers are getting the same relaxed treatment they got when applying for loans they've defaulted on: their own assertions about income are accepted without being tested in evidence, and possession Orders are suspended on terms that cover arrears repayments.

Who cares? It's 20 C over here and the sun is shining out of a clear blue sky. No worries ...; April 10, 2007 2:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Lumber costs plummet. http://infohype.blogspot.com; April 10, 2007 4:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Subprime is alive and well.

http://tinyurl.com/2rj44s

The pain is going to last for years and millions upon millions will be lead to slaughter. Marching off to the debt grinding machine.....worldwide........

MREs, H2O, ammo, Euro&Yen, check.; April 10, 2007 10:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Is the Sun finally setting on Western dominance? It seems we have so little of value remaining, we have transferred and enormous amount of wealth to the east, our fiat paper money is losing value daily, we are in national debt almost to the point of no return, we have similarly enormous levels of personal debt. Our children our uneducated and ignorant, our political systems are hopelessly corrupt. All this while, China has been building its wealth and power, and with 1.2 billion people can overtake us all.; April 10, 2007 11:16 PM
Anonymous said...: TROY -- Anthony LaCalamita III's life was coming undone.

He had been losing money in his real estate investments. Three weeks ago, he and his wife separated. Last week, he was fired from his job as an auditor at a Troy accounting firm.

On Monday morning, according to police and witnesses, LaCalamita burst into the offices of his former employer and opened fire with a shotgun, killing one employee and wounding two others.

By Monday night, he was in the custody of the Troy Police Department.

Troubles for LaCalamita, 38, started mounting in 2006 when he began unloading properties at a loss in one of the country's worst housing markets. In one transaction, he sold a Plymouth home in October for $100,000 less than he owed on the mortgage, property records show.

He also owed more than $100,000 on two loans obtained last year for a multi-unit building in Detroit. The deals were partially offset in February 2006 when he sold a Garden City home for $32,000 more than the amount he paid a year earlier, property records show.

His father, also named Anthony LaCalamita, declined comment after learning of the shootings.

"So you're telling me my son shot three people?" he said from his home in Orlando, Fla.

The real estate losses followed a few profitable investments.

From 2004 to 2005, LaCalamita made about $140,000 profit selling three homes in Livonia and Canton Township.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070410/METRO/704100359; April 11, 2007 12:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Can someone tell me WTF is going on with Countrywide? Mozillo is dumping shares at a breakneck pace, the Board is awarding tens-of-thousands of shares to all the officers,(bribes?) CFC is facing a shareholder lawsuit, and the stock price barely drops. What friggen moron is buying up all the shares Mozillo and his cronies are dumping? Out-of-money puts/calls are about even. ARE YOU ALL UNDER MOZILLO'S SPELL????; April 11, 2007 1:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Japan will be the country to survive the apocalypse. Why? They've already gone through their own house of pain. While the US and Europe suffer, Japan's exports won't. We may be poor, but will still be buying their cheap high-quality Yaris and Scion cars. And we'll never stop buying the universal drug: electronic gadgets. Even the poorest ghetto dawg has a cell phone and i-pod...; April 11, 2007 2:01 AM
burn baby burn said...: I just got this email I really do not know what to say other than it shows how desperate things are starting to get. For those who do not know AAdvantage is American Airlines Frequent flyer program.

Don't delay! Earn thousands of AAdvantage miles when you buy, sell or finance your home through LendingTree.

For a limited time earn an additional 1,000 AAdvantage miles with a home loan request.

Get up to four customized offers in minutes and earn 1,000 AAdvantage(R) bonus miles* when you complete a refinance, mortgage or home equity loan request! To qualify, use reservation code AA5-15 and submit your request before April 30, 2007.

You can also earn thousands of AAdvantage bonus miles after closing at no additional cost:

Refinance, Mortgage, or Home Equity
1,250 bonus miles for every $10,000 financed*

Find a REALTOR(R)
3,000 bonus miles for every $10,000 of home purchase or selling price*; April 11, 2007 2:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Who you callin' a nappy-headed ho?; April 11, 2007 5:24 AM
Anonymous said...: Connecticut won a court order that may clear the way for it to file criminal charges against former Mortgage Lenders Network USA Inc. Chief Executive Mitchell Heffernan over the company's bankruptcy, the state's attorney general said.

The state's Department of Labor has said it applied last month for an arrest warrant charging Heffernan with failing to pay about $3 million, mostly sales commissions, to 61 former employees of the Middletown-based provider of subprime mortgages, which are to people with poor credit histories.

Any charges would be the first against a former top executive of a large U.S. subprime lender since the industry began struggling in recent months under a surge of homeowner delinquencies and defaults.

Mortgage Lenders had been the 15th-largest U.S. subprime home loan provider before seeking Chapter 11 protection on
February 5.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/
wireStory?id=3028256; April 11, 2007 6:04 AM
Anonymous said...: Another monster is on the back of the greenback today. A potential trade war between US and China is starting to get forex players nervous about holding the USD again. This situation stems from the US complaining to the World Trade Organization (WTO) over China's inability to deal with piracy adequately, 10 days after imposing duties on imports of Chinese coated paper. US lawmakers say China uses an undervalued...

currency and subsidies to help spur the nation's booming exports of textiles, electronics and toys.

China bites back, saying that this act would "severely damage" trade relations between the two countries, which gives rise to fears that China may reduce purchases of US treasury bonds, making it that much more difficult for the US to finance its external deficit.

US dollar fell to near 2-year low against the Euro. EUR/USD is now testing 2-year high of 1.3440. Next resistance after that would be 1.3460-80, then 1.3500. Nearest support is around 1.3400, then 1.3380.

Meanwhile, EUR/JPY hit a fresh record high today, confirming the enthusiasm for selling the Yen as carry plays are back in favour again, albeit cautiously.

http://www.gracecheng.com/blog/
350/Gloves%20come%20off%20for%
20US%20and%20China.html; April 11, 2007 6:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Right now there is an 8-month supply of homes on the market in the Bay Area.

Investors are placing properties on the market, trying to sell them before the busy summer selling season.

http://cbs5.com/local/
local_story_100230523.html; April 11, 2007 7:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith - I live in N.California and am currently visiting friends in Switzerland. The economist regularly publishes something called the Big Mac purchasing power parity report (or something like that) comparing the costs of BM's around the world. Here a Big Mac is 10.90 Swiss Francs - that's about 10 dollars ! The US is fucked.; April 11, 2007 5:08 PM
Anonymous said...: IMF: Housing Killing US Economy. http://infohype.blogspot.com; April 11, 2007 5:33 PM
Anonymous said...: I just got this email I really do not know what to say other than it shows how desperate things are starting to get. For those who do not know AAdvantage is American Airlines Frequent flyer program.
___________________
The reality is that unless and until the states or the Feds ban predatory lending products like Interest Only loans, No Doc loans, etc., the mortgage lenders will be pushing them like crazy onto unsuspecting home buyers.; April 11, 2007 6:11 PM
Anonymous said...: Write these three Senators and yours too. They want to bail out stupid borrowers and the flippers. LET THEM EAT THEIR GRANITE COUNTERTOPS AND RENT.

http://tinyurl.com/34hs7p

Lawmakers propose aid for subprime borrowers

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The federal government should offer troubled borrowers hundreds of millions of dollars to bail them out of subprime mortgage loans, several leading Democratic lawmakers said on Wednesday.; April 11, 2007 7:45 PM
Anonymous said...: NO F'IN WAY!!!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/11/real_estate/Subprime_bailout/index.htm?postversion=2007041113; April 11, 2007 8:20 PM
Anonymous said...: LEGAL EAGLES CLAW OVER NEW CENTURY
By PAUL THARP
IT'S SPREADING! Trouble is coming to a subdivision near you, as more mortgage lenders are showing signs of financial strain.April 11, 2007 -- The collapse of subprime mortgage giant New Century Financial, which created more than $220 billion in shaky home loans, is growing into one of the biggest bankruptcy tangles ever to hit Wall Street as shocking new claims of insider windfalls and hijacked millions emerge.

At least 95 lawyers have fought all week in the Delaware bankruptcy court to alter New Century's own breakup blueprint, which has triggered several red flags.

UBS led the first legal roadblock with court charges that New Century and its management have hijacked as much as $18.4 million owed to UBS for bankrolling mortgages that New Century had peddled to credit-risky customers.

UBS urged a freeze on parts of New Century's maze of 342 bank accounts around the U.S.

Meanwhile, another assault on New Century's insider moves came after a federal trustee pounced on a controversial $1 million perk that New Century was going give to its ex-business partner, Greenwich Capital, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland.

The trustee called it nothing more than a "$1 million windfall" that served "no real function." Greenwich wants to buy a remaining loan portfolio for $50 million, yet would collect $1 million even if a deal never came.

In another controversial insider deal, New Century plans to sell its key asset - its loan-servicing platform - for $139 million to a Canadian shell company run by accountant George Lunick and two traders, Don Coons and Doug Campbell, both sanctioned or suspended by Canadian regulators.

The Calgary-based shell, Carrington Capital, with $300,000 in assets, was formerly affiliated with New Century and was formed late last year as New Century was imploding. Its affiliates are also creditors.; April 11, 2007 9:28 PM
Anonymous said...: This all wouldn't be so bad if wages would rise, like AT ALL. I got 2.5% last year, and so far it looks like I'll get zip this year. How can a company get away with paying me LESS each year, is my work worse? No in fact, I have an additional year of experience. All the while corporate profits have been going up and up and up, and along with them CEO pay. I think this is one of the biggest problems. And also, the "official" rate of "inflation" can't possibly be connected to reality. Why, for example, are house prices not included in inflation figures, only rental costs?; April 11, 2007 11:11 PM
Anonymous said...: And what's worse, if the Fed does bail everyone out, it won't even be current taxpayers who have to foot the bill, it will be their children, grandchildren and so on. Classic baby boomer behaviour, "lets rape the planet, we won't be alive when the whole thing collapses."; April 11, 2007 11:14 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.forbes.com/2007/04/11/housing-subprime-update-markets-equity-cx_er_0411markets20.html?partner=yahootix

Subprime Drag Worse Than Expected

(RU PAUL, BOY GEORGE, OR ANN COULTER? WHOS THE WORST SUBPRIME DRAG OF THEM ALL?)

The subprime mortgage mess will weigh heavier on the U.S. real estate market than initially projected, the National Association Realtors announced on Wednesday.

“We are seeing more evidence of a deeper problem in the subprime market,” Lawrence Yun, senior forecast economist for the real estate agents' group, said in an interview on Wednesday. “There are two factors: tightening credit standards and increased foreclosures.”

(OH GREAT LARRY WE ARE IN AWE OF YOUR MAJESTIC PHD IN HOME ECONOMICS)

“As home sales moderate, overall home prices will be essentially flat this year," David Lereah, chief economist of the Realtors' group, said in a statement on Wednesday. "The good news is that inventories remain well below the levels experienced during the last housing downturn in the early 1990s, and supplies are close to balance in many areas."

(AND WHAT HAPPENS WHERE THEY AREN'T?)

"We want to people to be able to stay in their homes with mortgage terms they understand and can handle,"according to Lereah.

(THEN WHY DID YOU CHEER THE MOTHER OF ALL HOUSING B@BBLES, O GREAT LEREAH? )

Simply stated, a loan with the lowest monthly payment probably isn't in your best interests -- borrowers need to understand worst-case scenarios.”

(BUT OH WHAT, O GREAT LEREAH, WHAT IS WORST-CASE SCENARIO IF THIS BOOM WILL NOT TURN TO BUST?

HOUSING PANIC THE BLOG WITH AN ATTITUDE PROBLEM IS YOUR WORST CASE SCENARIO, O GREAT LEREAH); April 11, 2007 11:35 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8OEIGMG2&show_article=1

well darn, looks like the fed is going raise rates.....so they are going to protect the dollar before the economy.....interesting.....; April 11, 2007 11:56 PM
Anonymous said...: It's funny, Bush and the Republicans have been such an unmitigated disaster over the last 6 years, I forget that I don't agree with everything the Democrats stand for. Where is our third way, huh?; April 11, 2007 11:56 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Realtors form across Florida went to the State Capitol today to let the Government Lawmakers know that they need to lower property taxes to "Save the housing market in Florida or they will be voted out in 2008".

Imus was fired and the USA Military forces were all told today that they will be deployed on an extended basis, everyone.

Back to your regularly scheduled program.; April 12, 2007 12:02 AM
Anonymous said...: There is also this for all of you HPers that trust the Gov will regulate your vitamins in your best interest. Oh and keep drinking Coke and Pepsi, they replaced sugar with corn syrup from this GM corn in the late 80's. About the same time I stopped drinking soft drinks.
Die people, die.
No, don't die. What I meant to say was the Gov. is here to protect you.
Infidel Woman

Monsanto's GM corn MON863 shows kidney, liver toxicity in animal studies
Tuesday, April 10, 2007 by: David Gutierrez

A variety of genetically modified corn that was approved for human consumption in 2006 caused signs of liver and kidney toxicity as well as hormonal changes in rats in a study performed by researchers from the independent Committee for Independent Research and Genetic Engineering at the University of Caen in France.

What you need to know - Conventional View
• The corn in question, MON863, is made by the Monsanto Company and approved for use in Australia, Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, Mexico, the Philippines, and the United States. It has had a gene inserted from the bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which causes the plant's cells to produce a pesticide.

• Researchers fed rats either unmodified corn or diets containing 11 or 30 percent MON863 for 90 days. The rats who ate modified corn were found to exhibit signs of liver and kidney toxicity, as well as signs of hormonal changes.

• Male rats lost an average of 3.3 percent of their body weight, and their excretion of phosphorus and sodium decreased. Female rats gained an average of 3.7 percent of their body weight, while their triglyceride levels increased by 24 to 40 percent.

• The mechanism that causes the toxicity is not yet known, but the researchers say there is evidence that the Bt toxin may cause the perforation of blood cells. They expressed concern that the methods used by Monsanto in initial tests of the corn were statistically flawed and called their own tests "the best mammalian toxicity tests available."

• Greenpeace responded to the study by calling for an immediate recall of all MON863 corn and the reassessment of all genetically modified foods currently approved for the market.

• Quote: "Our counter-evaluation shows that there are signs of toxicity, and nobody can say scientifically and seriously the consumption of the transgenic maize MON863 is safe and good for health." - Lead Author Gilles Eric Seralini

What you need to know - Alternative View
Statements and opinions by Mike Adams, author of Grocery Warning: How to identify and avoid dangerous food ingredients

• It seems that the more these GM foods are tested, the more frightening the implications seem to be for human health. When companies like Monsanto do their own in-house testing, results are mysteriously favorable in nearly all cases, but when independent labs run their own tests, the results are downright shocking.

• I find it interesting that the FDA believes U.S. consumers should not be allowed to know which foods are genetically modified and which aren't. The push for honest labeling of GM foods has been blockaded by corporate interests and corrupt federal regulators.

Resources you need to know
The Campaign for labeling of GM foods: http://www.thecampaign.org

Bottom line
• A variety of genetically modified corn was found to cause signs of hormonal changes and liver and kidney toxicity in rats.

###; April 12, 2007 12:11 AM
Anonymous said...: The fear is here...people are finally moving past denial. This has been a great sociology lesson. I think teachers will be using the housing bubble example in the future for how people react to change.; April 12, 2007 12:30 AM
Anonymous said...: 55 lenders have now gone kaput according to Implode - Meter

http://ml-implode.com/; April 12, 2007 3:18 AM
Anonymous said...: "I aints no nappy headed ho"!

Slap Jackson!

aka jigaboo; April 12, 2007 6:12 AM
Anonymous said...: I' m no economist but I do believe the dollar will always be more important that the overall economy. Except that protecting the dollar, ultimately saves the economy even more harm. You see children, as the dollar loses its value, everything we buy from overseas ends up costing us more and more and more and more, at an ever increasing rate of speed. This is called hyperinflation, please take a look at what happened to Germany in the 30's. A recession is a walk in the park compared to hyperinflation. When push comes to shove, the Fed will always rescue. The dollar means more to them than a subprime borrower.; April 12, 2007 7:05 AM
Anonymous said...: Anybody care to comment on the stock market?

Bad news about the housing industry... Stocks go up.

Bad news about the mortgage industry... Stocks go up.

Top execs shoveling off stocks at a break neck pace... Stocks go up.

Bad news from the FED... Stocks go up.

Unemployment up... Stocks go up.

My broker tells me I'm stupid and crazy for dumping my stocks and going to cash.

My gut tells me that there is a "Pump and Dump" plan going on in the stock market. Keep the stocks up while we get out. It happened with Enron, the management got out, then screwed everyone else.

Am I just being a crazy lunatic?; April 12, 2007 4:18 PM
Rich M. said...: I'm seeing things move in york county, pa, but just in the last two weeks. I m positive but confused about something i've done. I set up a blog describing the house at 430abbeydrive.com. Last night it was finally caught by google indexing and I coulg use associated words from the site like home but not homes, york, pa but not 430. It was picking up the word associations but now it doesn't. Any other bloggers have a clue as to what might be going on. I'm positive but could use some advice. BTW, I am using a blogger account.; April 12, 2007 11:57 PM
Anonymous said...: WTF is up with CFC??????

dm1976 is not crazy.

"Countrywide mortgage lending in foreclosure rises"
http://tinyurl.com/ywygt5

"Countrywide Bank CEO Furash Leaves Company"
http://tinyurl.com/yp6czm

CFC stock goes UP $0.21

DUDE, Mozillo is one PIMPIN' wizard Mo Fo!; April 13, 2007 1:52 AM
Anonymous said...: Hey boy's n girl's!

Let's all think up more fun names for the nappy ho's!!!!!; April 13, 2007 5:29 AM
Anonymous said...: dm1976:

yes you are; April 13, 2007 5:39 AM
Anonymous said...: God forbid it should hit the rich people or corporations.
Thank goodness these entities may be spared, as the middle class and the poor are in a better position to absorb this financial burden.
Have a nice day.

"Poor" people can go fuck themselves. I'm sick and tired about hearing this faily barage of bullshit about the poor. Nobody is poor in this country. The poorest American is richer than 75% of the world's population. So they'll have to scale back and only eat out 5 night a week...boo fucking hoo.; April 13, 2007 5:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Remember the days of The Contract with America? Cutting government spending and balancing the books. Then came the government surplus. We're sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo far removed from that in principle, all that needs to happen is for the "filling of the gap" to occur. And that, is gonna sting like hell.; April 13, 2007 6:19 AM
Anonymous said...: Southstar files for Chapter 7

Just a week after shutting its doors, Southstar Funding LLC has filed for bankruptcy protection, according to documents filed with the U.S. North District of Georgia bankruptcy court April 11.

The wholesale mortgage lender filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, meaning the company will sell its assets to pay outstanding debts, and not attempt to reorganize.

The initial bankruptcy petition lists between 1,000 and 5,000 creditors for Southstar Funding, and assets and liabilities in excess of $100 million.

The mortgage lender, which split its business evenly between subprime, prime and Alt-A mortgages, closed on April 2 after investment banks began withdrawing support for Southstar's loans on March 29 and 30.

http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/
eastbay/othercities/atlanta/
stories/2007/04/09/
daily30.html?b=1176091200^1446556; April 13, 2007 6:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Kenneth Heebner, manager of the top-performing real-estate fund over the past decade, said U.S. home prices may plunge as much as 20 percent because of rising defaults on riskier mortgages.

Subprime loans, made to borrowers with a history of missed payments or untested credit, and ``Alt-A'' loans, which require little or no documentation, account for about $2.5 trillion of the $10 trillion in outstanding mortgages, according to Moody's Economy.com. As much as 40 percent of these loans may default, flooding the real estate market, Heebner said.

``It will be the biggest housing-price decline since the Great Depression,'' Heebner, 66, said today in an interview in Boston. Prices may fall by a fifth in some markets, he said.

That would leave home prices at levels last seen in 2003 and 2004, the middle of boom that lifted prices to a record in 2005. The damage from high-risk mortgages will slow the U.S. economy, though not enough to send it into a recession, Heebner said. Fourth-quarter growth was revised to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent because of housing, the government said March 29.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
aonDdgoWQ.pg&refer=worldwide; April 13, 2007 6:28 AM
Anonymous said...: If lenders created the mess, why should tax payers pay for the mess.

Let the free market fix their own mess. They are the most efficient at it.

Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. will provide $1 billion of mortgage financing to help about 7,000 victims of abusive lending practices avoid losing their homes, an advocacy group said Wednesday.

http://www.newsmax.com/money/
signup.cfm?goto=/money/
archives/articles/2007/4/12
/103154.cfm&PROMO_CODE=0&s=mnh; April 13, 2007 6:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Instead of the next off-topic thread being about Iraq or Iran or Don Imus, how about a thread for discussion of whether it is possible that "B" is, in fact, the perfect cup size? Has anyone else seen the 2007 Victoria's swim cover (okay, stupid question)? Oh my sweet holy lord those things are perfect, and they look to be approximately "B" in size. It seems natural to assume that "C" or "DD" or perhaps "H" is perfection, but after reviewing this cover photo, I think I have to assert that "B" is, in fact, the perfect cup size.

Or, perhaps we could have a thread to assert that Taco Bell is God's food. So the "meat" may not satisfy the conventional definition of "meat". So what? Damn it is good. And somehow they manage to find new ways to make 6 ingredients into new products, year in and year out. Give me a Nachos Bell Grande, and a side of Adriana Lima and her beautiful, beautiful, glorious B-cup breasts, and I will be a happy man.; April 13, 2007 6:52 AM
Anonymous said...: Bank of Granite 1Q earnings down 9%

Bank of Granite Corporation says its first-quarter earnings fell to $4 million, or 25 cents per diluted share.

That's a 9.1 percent drop from $4.4 million, or 28 cents per diluted share, in the first quarter of last year.

Charles Snipes, chief executive and president, attributes the decrease in earnings to higher provisions for loan losses and nonperforming loans in the company's Catawba Valley market.

http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/
charlotte/stories/2007/04/09/
daily42.html

Bank of Granite Corporation has $1.2 billion in assets but asset quality isn't high.

http://www.fool.com/investing/
general/2007/04/03/
banking-on-buyouts.aspx; April 13, 2007 6:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Oak Hill Financial Q1 Profit Declines

Oak Hill Financial announced financial results for the first quarter, reporting earnings that declined from last year.

The Jackson, Ohio-based company's net interest income declined to $9.3 million from $9.7 million in the previous year quarter, while non-interest income from operations fell to $2.8 million from $3.3 million in the preceding year quarter.

Oak Hill Financial total assets is $1.29 billion.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/
.site/news/BREAKING%20NEWS/
531995/

Oak Hill Banks operates 37 full-service banking offices and
one bank loan production office in 16 counties across southern and central
Ohio.

Oak Hill Financial President and CEO R.E. Coffman, Jr. stated, "Going into 2007, for a number of reasons we expected the early part of the year to be the most challenging"

http://www.pr-inside.com/
oak-hill-financial-reports-
1st-quarter-r92455.htm

Oak Hill Bank offer a variety of fixed and variable rates mortgage & home improvement loans (including low down-payment programs).

http://www.oakhillbanks.com/
persLending.cfm; April 13, 2007 7:15 AM
Anonymous said...: More Declines in the Ozarks: Fool by Numbers

On April 11, Bank of the Ozarks released first-quarter earnings for the period ended March 31.

* Net income fell 10%, as noninterest expense grew 9% and provision for loan losses more than doubled.

* Because of the unfavorable interest rate environment, net interest margin fell by 49 basis points to 3.35%.

http://www.fool.com/investing/
general/2007/04/12/
more-declines-in-the-ozarks
-fool-by-numbers.aspx; April 13, 2007 7:18 AM
Anonymous said...: On April 11, Michigan-based Mercantile Bank released first-quarter earnings for the period ended March 31.

* Net income decreased 13.1% to $4.3 million due to the difficult interest rate environment and slowing economy.

* Efficiency ratio deteriorated to 55%, primarily reflecting the decline in the net interest margin and increased operating costs.

* Non-performing assets rose to 0.60% of the total assets.

http://www.fool.com/investing/
general/2007/04/12/
mercantile-bank-still-flat-
fool-by-numbers.aspx; April 13, 2007 7:21 AM
Anonymous said...: Mercantile Bank feels economy's pain

An economy "showing increasing signs of stress" and narrowing margins continue to hamper Mercantile Bank Corp.'s ability to grow.

The Grand Rapids-based bank today said it earned

$4.3 million, or 53 cents per share, during the first three months of 2007, a 13.1 percent decrease from the $4.9 million, or 61 cents per share, in the same period of 2006.

"The new year presents us -- and the banking industry as a whole -- with a continuation of the same challenges that we experienced in 2006," Gerald Johnson Jr., Mercantile chairman and chief executive, said in a press release. "The difficult interest rate environment remains unchanged, and the economy is showing increasing signs of stress in our markets."

Total revenue, a combination of net interest and noninterest income, declined 2.8 percent to $15.9 million. Interest income continued to be hampered by narrow margins between what the bank pays to borrow money and what it can charge consumers to borrow.

The bank managed to keep its loan chargeoffs for the first quarter at 0.18 percent of average annualized loans, about the same as last year.

Nonperforming assets of $12.6 million -- including $2.5 million in foreclosed real estate -- were up to 0.6 percent of total assets, compared with $9.6 million, or 0.46 percent of total assets last year.

"The majority of our loans are supported by real property, but valuations are changing, and the collection process has been protracted," Johnson said.

Total assets reached

$2.09 billion during the quarter, a 10.2 percent increase.

http://www.mlive.com/business/
grpress/index.ssf?/base/
business-4/1176303073203710.
xml&coll=6; April 13, 2007 7:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Independent Bank Corp. Reports 1st Quarter 2007 Earnings

Net operating earnings on a per diluted share basis for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 was $0.47, a decrease of $0.03, or (6.0%), compared to the same period in 2006. Net operating earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 was $6.9 million, a decrease of (11.0%) from the same period in 2006.

Comparing the three months ending March 31, 2007 to the same period last year, net interest income decreased $2.3 million or (8.8%), with the decrease primarily attributable to a smaller balance sheet and an increase in the cost of deposits. The net interest margin for the three month period ended March 31, 2007 was 3.84%, as compared to 3.88% for the three months ended March 31, 2006.

The Company’s allowance for loan losses as a percentage of loans increased to 1.34%, an increase of 2 basis points from the 1.32% reported at December 31, 2006. The provision for loan losses for the quarter ending March 31, 2007 was $891,000, an increase of $141,000 compared to the same period in 2006. Net charge-offs were also $891,000 for the quarter.

http://home.businesswire.com/
portal/site/moreover/
index.jsp?epi-content=
GENERIC&newsId=
20070411005996&&newsLang
=en&beanID=1868105982&viewID
=news_view; April 13, 2007 7:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Banks' results may sag

Slow. Tired. Weak. Difficult. Challenging. Not words that investors like to hear. But it's what analysts are using to describe what to expect as major U.S. banks prepare to report first-quarter results next week.

"It's a very difficult operating environment right now," said Michael Nix, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in Greenwood, South Carolina.

Banks are struggling with narrowing lending margins, rising defaults and mortgage problems after the five-year housing boom ended and borrowers began missing more payments.

"It's a more challenging environment, especially for regional banks," said Mark Batty, an analyst at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, which oversees $54 billion. "Net interest margin is likely to be soft or contract for banks in general."

"Banks are looking tired," John McDonald, a Banc of America Securities LLC analyst who covers major banks other than his own, wrote on March 30. "Weaker earning asset growth, continued spread pressure (and) adverse seasonal factors are likely to offset a favorable capital markets environment."

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070411/
banks_outlook.html?.v=2; April 13, 2007 7:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Countrywide Financial Corp., one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, said Thursday that pending foreclosures surged 89 percent in March, as the housing market continues to suffer.

Pending foreclosures, measured as a percentage of unpaid principal balances, jumped to 0.83 percent, from 0.44 percent a year ago. As a percentage of the number of loans serviced, pending foreclosures increased to 0.69 percent from 0.47 percent.

President and Chief Operating Officer David Sambol said delinquencies on the servicing portfolio were 4.29 percent for March 2007, compared with 3.68 percent in March 2006.

Countrywide's Thursday press release did not specify the numbers of subprime loans represented among overall delinquencies and pending foreclosures.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070412/
countrywide_sales.html?.v=2; April 13, 2007 7:39 AM
Anonymous said...: MGIC Investment Corp. slipped Thursday after the mortgage insurer reported weaker-than-expected earnings, an outgrowth of a build-up in reserves and lower income from a joint venture.

Late Wednesday, the company posted first-quarter earnings of $1.12 a share, down from $1.87 a share a year earlier and well off the average analyst estimate of $1.71.

MGIC Investment Corp said it incurred losses of $181.8 million in the latest period, up from $114.9 million last year.

"To see a large uptick in the provision for losses well worse than even our below-consensus estimates this early in the year is a bit concerning," Goldman Sachs said Thursday.

MGIC's shares fell 3% to $55.43

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/s
tory/mgics-shares-slip-earnings-
miss/story.aspx?guid=
%7B66D0EF48%2DDBAD%2D4115%2DB7D4
%2DC4EE85B482F2%7D&siteid=
yhoo&dist=yhoo; April 13, 2007 7:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Rate Increases May ‘Prove Necessary’

Even as the Federal Open Market Committee opted last month to keep interest rates unchanged and removed a reference in their policy statement to tighter credit, Federal Reserve officials agreed last month that higher interest rates could still "prove necessary."

http://www.newsmax.com/money/
signup.cfm?goto=/money/archives/
articles/2007/4/11/
155741.cfm&PROMO_CODE=0&s=mnh

Minutes of the meeting revealed that officials hadn't ruled out future rate increases even though the March 21 text didn't list tighter policy as an option.

Since the meeting, policy makers have stressed their concern that inflation remains too high. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker yesterday became the third official this week to hold out the prospect of higher rates. Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on April 10 indicated the central bank may still need to act. Inflation is "running too high" and outweighs the risk of slower growth, Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow said late yesterday.

The Fed's preferred inflation benchmark, the "core" personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, has been at or above the top of the comfort zone articulated by at least six Fed officials for almost three years. It rose 2.4 percent for the year to February.

The average U.S. retail price of regular unleaded gasoline rose to US$2.80 a gallon on April 10, the highest in seven months and up 30 percent from this year's low of US$2.15 on Jan. 24.

"The latest readings on core inflation were higher than expected, and it was difficult to discern whether the apparent downward trend in core inflation during the past few quarters was continuing," the Fed minutes said. "Also, the recent increases in prices for energy and some non-energy imports likely would boost overall inflation in the near term."

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/
news/archives/editorial/
2007413/107046.htm; April 13, 2007 7:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Subprime got hit and Alt-A getting hit, so what is next Jumbo Loan.

Jumbo Loan Delinquencies Jump 18 Percent.

Moody's Investors Service Inc. reports that 0.35 percent of jumbo mortgages packaged into securities were delinquent in January, rising 18 percent from the same month in 2006. The 30- to 59-day delinquency rate slipped to 0.55 percent from 0.62 percent in the fourth quarter.

Year-over-year, jumbo-loan foreclosure and real-estate-owned rates jumped to 0.11 percent and 0.037 percent, respectively, which are "still low in relative terms," according to Moody's Investors Service analyst Peter McNally.

http://www.clientrelations.info/
archives/industry_view/index.php; April 13, 2007 8:02 AM
Anonymous said...: The DOLLAR is going DOWN! DOWN! DOWN!

With so much bad Earnings Reports coming out of the banking sector no wonder currency traders are calling the Fed Rate Hike bluff, and shorting the Dollar.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/
?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i; April 13, 2007 8:07 AM
Anonymous said...: The dollar sank across the board on Thursday, as the incessant demand for the commodity currencies spilled over the European currencies

http://www.fxstreet.com

Euro Hits Over 2-Yr High As ECB Tips June Hike

The euro climbed to over a two-year high against the dollar Thursday as signals that euro-zone rates are likely to rise further added to the market's general dollar-bearish sentiment.

After starting the session down, the dollar slipped further against both the euro and yen as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet cemented market expectations for a June rate hike.

http://www.iht.com/articles/
ap/2007/04/12/business/
NA-FIN-MKT-US-Dollar.php

The IMF said the European Central Bank should hike interest rates again this summer, taking its main rate to 4.00 pct, and further tightening moves may also be necessary after that.

'With the (euro) area's growth projected to remain close to or above potential, and the possibility of some further upward pressure on factor utilisation and prices, a further interest rate increase to 4 pct by the summer would seem warranted,' the IMF said in its twice-yearly world economic outlook.

And it added: 'Beyond this, additional policy action could still be required if growth momentum remains above trend and risks to wages and prices intensify.'

http://www.forbes.com/markets/
feeds/afx/2007/04/11/
afx3601736.html; April 13, 2007 8:18 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm an illegal Mexican and it's my right to get a no-doc, state, loan for 800,000 USD.

I'll send the 150,000 cash out back to Mexico for safe keeping in the US taxpayers awake from thier slumber.; April 13, 2007 9:39 AM
Anonymous said...: "Rich M. said...
I'm seeing things move in York county, pa"

Are you sure that things are actually moving, or just sham sales to heighten the anticipation of the FB's to be! I see a lot of places here in the southern end of the county that are "sold". Problem is they were for sale forever and "sold" last year right before winter set in, then after Jan 1, the little sold ad-on signs came off the realtwhore signs, or the whole 'for sale' sign came down.
Then overnight the 'for sale' signs are back up and within a day or two the little 'sold' ad-on sign is back on. And yet a month or two later, the homes still sit empty! Some are pre owned, others brand new, something dedinitely smells fishy!; April 13, 2007 12:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Stop the subprime bailout: http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/nobailout.html; April 13, 2007 12:27 PM
Anonymous said...: "then I guess Rutgers women basketballers can be nappy-headed ho's!....."

someone over at rutgers said that these women are our future lawyers, doctors and etc.......they might make some good real estate sales persons..........i think....of course, who wants nappy headed hos selling you a house or operating on your body?..........God help us...........; April 13, 2007 3:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Who wants Jessie Jackson's and Al Sharpton's censorship of our air waves and media?; April 13, 2007 6:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Kurt Vonnegut, RIP. I think he nailed our problem: PPs - Psychopathic personalities. http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/44/kurt_vonnegut_vs_the/; April 13, 2007 7:28 PM
Anonymous said...: There is a link on the CNN business webpage to the housing roller coaster program that was posted here a few days back...; April 13, 2007 7:58 PM
Anonymous said...: my friend in houston has a cousin that works for countrywide. anyway i guess he does, i am not sure. but in the fall of 2005, he was. my friend took me over to his cousin's house, one day, to show me where he lived. his house was very expensive, i believe in the area of 1.5 million and he had many expensive cars parked in the front circular driveway. he was living in a gated community in northwest houston. the first thought that crossed my mind when i saw all of this, is that he is living on the edge and his so-called job was a big lie......now that countrwide is exploding, sometimes i wonder if this guy still has his big house and his expensive cars or has he walked on his mortgage like so many of his clients have apparently done....; April 13, 2007 8:42 PM
Anonymous said...: the dollar is collapsing and the market is up.......am i missing something here?...; April 13, 2007 8:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Subprime woes take toll on GE results

The US subprime mortgage crisis hit General Electric on Friday, wiping $373m from the industrial conglomerate's first quarter profits and prompting its executives to warn of an incipient "bubble" in global credit markets.

"We have got to get our house in order," Keith Sherin, GE's chief financial officer, told the Financial Times.

Mr Sherin said the problems in the subprime sector, which targets borrowers with weak credit histories, were being replicated in the market for "Alt-A" loans for borrowers with slightly better credit scores.

GE, whose WMC mortgage division is the fifth-largest US subprime lender, is the latest blue-chip company to be wrong-footed by the abrupt downturn in the industry, which has been hit by a sharp rise in defaults and delinquencies.

GE saw a reduction of $373m in the profits of its GE Money division in the first quarter of 2007 and took a $500m markdown to reflect the lower value of its assets.

http://www.euro2day.gr/
articlesfna/32603099/; April 14, 2007 1:49 AM
Anonymous said...: Earnings May Show Strain of Mortgage Mess

One of the oldest maxims in banking is that bad loans are made in good times. Next week, investors will get fresh evidence of how painful the hangover from a growing pile of overdue loan payments and defaults could get for banks.

In a week crammed with bank earnings, analysts are predicting the most angst-ridden quarterly results and forecasts in years.

http://online.wsj.com/public; April 14, 2007 3:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Check THIS out!

Sorry for not using tinyURL, this is hot news....

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/email.php/6766932; April 14, 2007 2:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Regarding anonymous posting: When I click "other" to choose an identity, the comment box goes away and my comment is gone forever. It only had to happen once for me to never use "other" again - but I just verified it happens everytime.

I have had other problems with the Google blogger account, I don't recall at the moment - something related to previous and current revisions of the blogspot system, and it never seems to log me in without undue problems/jumping thru hoops. I stick to anonymous my friend.

I know this is off-topic but no-one will read it if I place it in the anonymous thread at this point.; April 14, 2007 2:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey I am PCFix, I logged in as Other!!!! Yeah...Keith, this was hard to diagnose while on your highly popular blog ;-) Actually, caused by screen resolution/ blogger templates I am guessing.

When I clicked "Other" the comment panel (from Leave your comment title thru the Preview button) jumps to the bottom of the web page. It was never gone - just 30 page downs away. Anyhow, thought I'd share. Now back to the bubble boys.; April 14, 2007 5:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Has anyone seen this? San Diego won't bottom till 2026??
http://repo4sale.spaces.live.com/

Reading over Robert Shiller's comments at in August 2005, he says:

Whether you live in one of the "hot" housing boom areas or not, the most important issue is not whether or when the bubble will burst, but what the "end" will it look like. Shiller confesses he has no idea. He says a lot depends on the other factors or "symptoms" in the mix.

In the extreme scenario, buyers start to default on adjustable-rate mortgages and trigger a financial crisis in the banking sector. Real estate prices nosedive as properties are abandoned. If this is compounded by significantly higher oil prices, "it could change the psychology," says Shiller. "Consumer confidence plummets and people pull back on spending." This causes a downward economic spiral and leads to recession.

In the "soft landing" version, real estate prices simply remain flat for years, much as they did after the boom in the 1970s, until they’re back in line with inflation. "This is what people are counting on happening," says Shiller. He considers this outcome unlikely "because the signs of a bubble are stronger."

Unlikely, huh?; April 14, 2007 6:00 PM
Anonymous said...: AZ Real Estate Clerks Fight Back. Protecting the MLS and thier Commission checks or Regulatory law enforcement? You decide.
Infidel Woman

Online housing site Zillow told it needs appraiser license

Peter Corbett
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 13, 2007 01:30 PM
An Arizona regulatory board has ordered Zillow.com to stop offering its online estimates of home values.

The Arizona Board of Appraisal has issued two cease and desist letters to the popular real estate Web site, claiming Zillow needs an appraiser license to offer its "zestimates" in Arizona.

"It is the board's feeling that (Zillow) is providing an appraisal," said Deborah Pearson, Board of Appraisal executive director.
advertisement

Seattle-based Zillow cautions users that its information is a starting point for consumers to gauge the value of their property, not a definitive value.

Zillow has been popular since its launch in February 2006. It claims 4 million users per month, including homeowners curious about their home's value and others snooping on what a neighbor or friend's house is worth.

Zillow has drawn criticism from real estate professionals and others about its accuracy.

The nonprofit National Community Reinvestment Coalition filed a complaint in October with the Federal Trade Commission alleging Zillow was intentionally misleading consumers and real estate professionals with its estimates.

“We have responded to the letters from the Arizona Board of Appraisal and hope to engage in a productive dialogue with them,” said Amy Bohutinsky, Zillow director of communications.; April 14, 2007 7:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is the link:

http://www.azcentral.com/business/
articles/0413biz-zillow0414-ON.html; April 14, 2007 7:20 PM
Anonymous said...: US Housing Market unraveling fast! Dollar breaking down!

Mega-Trend #1: Housing's Elusive "Bottom" Keeps Getting Pushed Farther Out

Hardly a day goes by without some pundit somewhere calling a "bottom" in housing. Two-bit real estate agents … ivory-tower economists … starry-eyed portfolio managers … they can't seem to help themselves!

But as I told you a month ago , my on-the-ground work tells me the worst is not behind us. Sales remain weak and inventories are extremely high. Prices simply have to fall further to right the ship.

Nothing I've seen has changed my mind. If anything, things are getting worse , especially for the public home builders. Get a load of the latest news out of these guys …

Mega-Trend #2: Higher Foreign Interest Rates Are Driving Down the Dollar

Clearly, the U.S. housing outlook stinks. That's forcing the Federal Reserve Board to keep interest rates stable, despite clear and present inflation dangers.

Meanwhile, the economic outlook overseas is great. Countries like China, India, Japan, Brazil, Australia, and Canada are all outperforming the U.S. by virtually every measure. In a just-published Safe Money Report , Martin and I go into great detail about each of these markets.

Because of that strong growth, foreign central bankers around the world are steadily hiking interest rates …

* The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates three times in 2006, and I expect another hike in the weeks ahead.

* The European Central Bank has increased rates to 3.75% over the past several months, and based on their comments this week, I'm expecting another hike in June.

* The Reserve Bank of India raised its key rate twice this year.

* The People's Bank of China is boosting its benchmark interest rate.

Heck, everyone from Taiwan to Norway to Latvia is boosting rates.

What happens when foreign central banks get serious about fighting inflation while our Federal Reserve *****-foots around? The dollar gets sent to the woodshed!

The broad U.S. Dollar index is already down almost 4% from its January high. It's trading at its worst level against the euro since January 2005. It's getting trounced by the British pound, closing in on the two dollars-for-every-one-pound level for the first time since 1992. And it has plunged to a 17-year low against the Australian dollar!

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
Article752.html; April 14, 2007 8:23 PM
Anonymous said...: IMF report on world financial stability was forced to warn on April 10, the so-called "U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis" has definitely now spread beyond sub-primes into "Alt-A" mortgages and jumbo loans, and more importantly, into the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) markets.

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/
2007/3416mortgage_crisis.html; April 14, 2007 8:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith
Let's root,root,root for a bailout! All of us frustrated loser renters can then step up from a cheap garden style apartment to a nice pad on 5th Avenue.
Whaddya mean can 't afford it? Oh, that's not $50K per year of income, I meant to STATE $500K of income. Get the keys, have trouble paying the rent, no problema - go for some those bailout funds. Hey, a 5th Ave apartment is MY American Dream. Whose is more important?
See how that works? Where is the govmunt gonna get the money for all of these bailouts? Bring back Greenspan! See how this works? In no time at all we'll all be as rich as Zimbabwe - sloshing around in all of that wonderful money,money.
(Unfortunately, because rent is paid up front and not in arrears as a mortgage, we can't do a 1st payment default. We need to fix that in the bailout legislation though. After all, fair's fair); April 14, 2007 11:41 PM
Anonymous said...: I lived in a bubble, a bubble not small. I had a balloon, bouncy as all. My balloon went a rollin', and hit a big wall. The wall was announcing, the ballon took a fall.

You do the math!; April 15, 2007 7:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Whatch and read this :

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7350.htm

Pit; April 15, 2007 2:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Arizona board of appraisers tries to silence Zillow.com, slapping them with a Cease and Desist order!

Here's the original article in tinyurl form:

http://tinyurl.com/3a3wtv

A discussion at mortgage implosion:

http://tinyurl.com/266z75; April 15, 2007 5:52 PM
Anonymous said...: No meaning to sound blunt but I think we are past the point of whether housing should drop 25 or 40%. Quite frankly, I think the whole economy will cave in thanks to the housing bubble. I think that all of this fraud and manipulation by everyone, not just the realtors and flippers, will ultimately do this country in. I wouldn't be surprised to see housing go back to early 90's pricing.

On a more funny note, I see that Ben's housing Blog has a thread called "You Know you're a F#@ked Borrower when". Since I can't post there, I'll post some of my ideas on when "you know when you're a f#cked borrower":

You know you're a f%#ked borrower when:

You open your back door and squirrel skeletons cover the back yard.

you stick granite countertops into your hummer because you may have to bug out from the bank

you drive a BMW and sleep on a air bed

your kids work and you don't

the HDTV is the main source of heat in your house

your house is a combo of brick, vinyl, steel, stucco, ramen noodles, french doors, spanish windows, etc..

the front yard has mounds of dirt from all of those stupid St Joe statues you buried

the neighborhood you live in looks like a bunch of oversized garages

your purse costs more than a computer

your total assets are around $1 million but your net worth is the same as your coin jar

your toilet and bathtub have connections to the internet yet the ISP disconnected you

you wear enough jewelry that you always face north

you fight over the charges at Starbucks but don't look at your mortgage

you convert to Mormonism so you can have more "spouses" to help pay the mortgage

you wake up from a nightmare screaming "DITECH"

you try to use a Visa card in a gumball machine

you have enough jetskis, duallys, boats, etc. that you can start a marina of your own.

your house is 10% wood, 15% brick, and 75% colored Saran Wrap

the guy from McDonalds has more in his wallet than you do in yours

Bwa Ha Ha HAAAAA; April 15, 2007 8:45 PM
Anonymous said...: QUESTION:

Should There Be A Sub-Prime Bail Out?

The housing market has become too inflated in part due to loose credit. If the GOV lets these loans go bad, values will drop, in the long run I think that would be a good thing.

Why should the government reward people and companies who made poor decisions?

While I agree there will be people put out in the street if nothing is done, on the flip side there will be people who will be able to purchase houses they can afford due to the lower prices.

At the end of the day, the question really boils down to the redistribution of wealth, if you think wealth should be redistributed, the bail out makes sense, if you are against wealth redistribution the bail out makes no sense.

REPLY:

I think it had a lot to do with thousands of people in this industry who have never experienced a down cycle and who believed that property values would continue to rise forever. The old proverb, "what goes up must come down" is as true as ever.

It also had a lot to do with uninformed consumers who wanted to believe that they could pile debt upon debt and there would never be any consequences for their poor decisions.

Lets also not forget the hundreds of lenders who knowingly sacrificed loan quality for volume because "everyone else was doing it."

And lets also not forget the loan officers who put themselves out as "trusted advisors" and encouraged people by minimizing the consequences of option ARM's. Or to commit fraud by misstating their income or assets.

Or got their client to buy into a complicated loan scenarios just to get a mortgage loan. It might have been better for the consumer to stay in their rental and work on improving their financial situation rather than jump into a loan with such dire consequences.

Too many people, even those with lots of brains make bad decisions when emotionally involved. There's plenty of blame to go around.

http://www.mortgagemag.com/
cgi-bin/ubb/ultimatebb.cgi?
ubb=get_topic;f=7;t=001482; April 15, 2007 9:35 PM
Anonymous said...: of course, who wants nappy headed hos selling you a house or operating on your body?..........God help us...........
----------------------------------

Why are there so many racist rednecks posting on this site? It just brings down the credibility . .. I am not sure if the racist rednecks are trolls or not. I do know that I would much rather have a black Rutgers female doctor or lawyer over any low IQ redneck. Just saying this in case it was a real opinion and not just a troll trying to stir things up.; April 15, 2007 11:56 PM
Anonymous said...: A senior central bank official has rejected calls for a quicker increase in the flexibility of the renminbi exchange rate, saying the currency's role in rectifying global economic imbalances should not be exaggerated.

Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China said the IMF should strengthen surveillance over the soundness of economic policies of countries whose currencies are used as major instruments in other countries' foreign exchange reserves. She was clearly referring to the US, whose low savings rate, and fiscal and trade deficits are agreed to be a key cause for global economic imbalances.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/
china/2007-04/16/content_
850945.htm; April 16, 2007 1:12 AM
Anonymous said...: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 30, 2007.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 649.5, a decrease of 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 671 one week earlier.

The Refinance Index decreased 4.5 percent to 2098.3 from 2197.7 the previous week

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent to 402.9 from 411.1 one week earlier.

The seasonally adjusted Conventional Index decreased 3.8 percent to 956.4 from 993.8 the previous week

The seasonally adjusted Government Index increased 3.7 percent to 137.7 from 132.8 the previous week.

www.landdevelopmenttoday.com/
Article1057.htm; April 16, 2007 1:31 AM
Anonymous said...: the guy from McDonalds has more in his wallet than you do in yours

LOL, I have that happen to me all the time, but I am not an FB, I don't think.

I can't post at Ben's boring blog either, so here goes.

You know you're an FB when:

You don't know where all your houses are.

You try to pay for jamba juice with an overdrawn credit card, then pocket lint, then resort to begging.

Your house is less than two years old and needs $50k in repairs.

You heat Ramen noodles with a candle.

You watch HGTV on a bigscreen tv, but through your neighbor's window.

You can't flush the toilet because the water is turned off.

You sold your dishwasher for gas money.

Your garage has $50k worth of stuff in it that you couldn't sell for $10.

You would mow the lawn but you pawned the lawnmower.

The sewer backs up and you don't even know about it.

A panhandler comes to the door and gives you money.

You are denied for your fifth refi in six months.

The Realtors quit returning your phone calls.

You stay up nights waiting for the sheriff's deputies.

You use the neighbor's hose to take a bath.

The last offer you had wouldn't cover your back property taxes.

The handmade FSBO sign you posted has completely faded and you don't care.

The poor people next door make fun of you.

You sell your neighbor's boat while he is at work.

You lose your job and say maybe it is for the best.

You can't sleep well, and when you do sleep you wake up screaming "Suzanne researched this!"

You won both houses in the divorce.; April 16, 2007 2:55 AM
Anonymous said...: The important thing is that foreclosures are up almost 100% across the most important parts of the nation. The real comps will be set by the foreclosures and auctions, not the bogus REIC or gubmint numbers. Realtrolls won't make any money off tose sales. FB's and flippers will be screwed as most of the smoartmoney that sold or stayed out of this mess go after the distressed properties for the next five years. How sweeet it is; April 16, 2007 3:35 AM
Anonymous said...: A busy week lies ahead for the nation's banks, with all of the biggest players reporting their first-quarter earnings.

Investors are waiting to see whether strong performances by their capital-markets businesses will make up for what is expected to be another lackluster period for retail-banking results.

Regional banks that rely more heavily on income from traditional lending activities are likely to suffer from the unfavorable interest rate environment and intense competition for customers.

"There is a good chance we'll see more earnings misses than surprises," said Robert S. Patten, a regional bank analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co.

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/
index.cfm?story=ON-20070413-
000688-1209; April 16, 2007 3:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Location: Kensington, MD
located in Montgomery County, is 4 miles north of the District of Columbia (Washington DC)

December 2006 Stats, Year over Year

Total Sold Dollar Volume:
$ 9,791,600 (2006)
$ 17,558,100 (2005)
- 44.23 % Change

Average Sold Price:
$ 466,267 (2006)
$ 548,691 (2005)
- 15.02 % Change

Median Sold Price:
$ 435,600 (2006)
$ 490,000 (2005)
- 11.10 % Change

Total Units Sold:
21 (2006)
32 (2005)
- 34.38 % Change

Average Days on Market:
91 (2006)
31 (2005)
193.55 % Change

Average List Price for Solds:
$ 495,831 (2006)
$ 577,296 (2005)
- 14.11 % Change

Avg Sale Price as a
percentage of Avg List Price:
94.04 % (2006)
95.04 % (2005)

Stats Courtesy of MRIS, www.mris.com

Yup, DC and glorious Montgomery County MD is impervious to price declines. Now - the spring bounce is not appearing, credit is tightening, and the federal job machine is running out of money.

Whats funny is that these prices decline are IN SPITE of the fact that the Bethesda, MD (Mont-Frederick Co, MD) MSA has one of the lowest percentage increases in forclosures (according to one metric) of any place in the US. Then again, in the Washington County exurbs (just past Frederick), forclosures are one of the highest rated in the nation. Hmmm.; April 16, 2007 4:30 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/
b4e7b298-e9f6-11db-91c7-
000b5df10621.html

Fears about the risk to global stability posed by the carry trade contributed to the falls on stock markets in late February.

In other words, most of the G7 members were careful of not using words that would suggest that Bank Of Japan should raise interest rate like certain G7 members did in February.

As the euro hovered near a record high of 161.45 yen on Friday, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, repeated the G7 statement’s message that foreign exchange markets should take note of the health of the Japanese economy when taking bets on the yen.

David Dodge, Bank of Canada governor, said: “Our views on the yen are exactly where they were the last time we met, that one should be very careful about placing one-way bets.”

These other members did not mention the Japanese currency nor the carry trade – the practice of borrowing in low-yield currencies, such as the yen, to invest in higher-yielding assets.

It is now clear where the source of most liquidity that gave the World easy credit for the pass decade has come from.

G7 has given Koji Omi, Japan’s finance minister the grren light to make the artificially low Yen even lower.

Koji Omi, Japan’s finance minister, said: ”The basic understanding is that foreign-exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. I don’t think there was anyone who specifically highlighted the yen and said it had problems.”; April 16, 2007 5:35 AM
Anonymous said...: What a tangled web we weave: For those who missed it, mortgage insurer MGIC Investment Corp. reported this past week that its first quarter profits fell 43.4 percent. Net income fell to $92.4 million, or $1.12 per share, from $163.5 million, or $1.87 per share, in the year-ago period.

The company said it was hurt by the housing market, higher losses and flat net premiums, which begs the question of what impact its pending merger with Radian Group Inc. will have on the soon-to-be combined entity.

Beyond their insurance premium line of business, MGIC/Radian have a controlling interest in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC, one of the nation’s largest scratch-and-dent mortgage operations — most of which are subprime.

http://www.housingwire.com/2007/
04/14/commentary-scratch-and-
dent-musings/#more-652; April 16, 2007 5:47 AM
Anonymous said...: G7 gives the green light to carry on with the carry trades.

Forex: EUR(Euro)/JPY(Yen) hit a new all-time high above 162.15 after the G7 failed to address JPY weakness. Traders weren't surprised by the lack of mention of the JPY or the carry trade, and the JPY managed to recover some losses.

The consensus is that the G7 has provided the green light to carry on with the carry trades. The CNY was the only currency that was singled out in the statement (G7 statement said it was "desirable" for the CNY to move to help close global trade imbalances).

The last G7 statement should give Forex traders more reason to dump the Dollar as trade tension between US and China intensify on the China Yuan.

The outcome of a weaker Dollar would be higher Inflation for the US.

Higher Inflation would be a harder burden on Subprime borrowers who are already financially tapped out.

http://www.fxstreet.com/
fundamental/analysis-reports/
asia-market-update/2007-04-15.html; April 16, 2007 6:00 AM
Anonymous said...: "by mid-2007 the worst should be behind us" on housing

Not very convincing considering the IMF report.

http://www.innercitypress.com/
imf041007.html

Ever wonder why World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz does not have too many friends these days?

IMF Warns on U.S. Subprime Lending, While Praising Its Global Spread

The International Monetary Fund, while singing the praises of financial globalization in a report issued today, notes dryly that "the subprime sector of the U.S. mortgage market has deteriorated more rapidly than had been expected." What the IMF misses is that the same subprime lending scheme which began in the U.S. and is now embroiled in bankruptcies and criminal charges, is being expanded worldwide by the Large, Complex Financial Institutions which the IMF loves and serves.

This report will probably not make Goldman Sach too happy.

Goldman Sachs has emerged as the single biggest creditor of New Century, the American sub-prime mortgage lender, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last night, after writing $60 billion (£30.4 billion) of American home loans.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/
tol/business/industry_sectors/
banking_and_finance/
article1610364.ece

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Ex-CEO of Goldman Sach, will tell other G7 members that "by mid-2007 the worst should be behind us" on housing, Adams said. Essentially, the message will be that global growth is rebalancing successfully as Europe and other areas pick up speed while U.S. growth slows.

http://africa.reuters.com/world/
news/usnN13391272.html; April 16, 2007 6:48 AM
Anonymous said...: NOW THIS IS A MORTGAGE COMMERCIAL!! by KAL'S KITTENS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oouQbcXdyH0; April 16, 2007 6:57 AM
Anonymous said...: What happened to the Mortgage Deduction Reform?

In late 2005, the President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform recommended the elimination of home mortgage interest deductibility for income taxes.

The purpose of the Advisory Panel
The bipartisan panel was created in 2005. The panel, made up of many of the top academic public finance minds, had the goal of giving recommendations on how the income tax system could be made "simpler, fairer and more pro (economic) growth" for the long run.

The panel recommended many sweeping reforms and changes to the income tax code -- all of which you can find in the complete report -- but the most interesting and controversial of them all was to get rid of the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners.

Eliminating this time-honored American tradition, which has been in existence since 1913, would affect those owning the more than 123 million homes in the U.S. -- but it's not bad news for everyone.

The proposal

In actuality, the panel's proposal for how to treat mortgage interest isn't as bad as it sounds. Instead of allowing the current tax deduction for up to $1 million in mortgage debt that is allowed now, the panel's recommendation is to scrap the deduction completely, replacing it with a flat 15% tax credit for mortgage interest paid up to the limit of average home prices in the region of the home.

For example, homeowners with $500,000 in mortgage debt at a 6% interest rate and earning $100,000 today get to take a tax break of about $8,400 on their tax bill. Here's the math:

$500,000 mortgage debt x 0.06 interest rate x 0.28 tax bracket = $8,400 in tax savings.

Under the new proposal, if these people lived in a region that has an average regional housing price of $227,000, then they would only be able to take a tax credit worth just over $2,000. Here's the math:

$227,000 max mortgage debt eligible for tax relief x 0.06 interest rate x 0.15 tax credit = $2,043 in tax savings.

http://www.fool.com/personal-
finance/home/2007/04/12/
think-your-mortgage-deduction-
is-safe-wrong.aspx; April 16, 2007 7:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Don't worry, your money is safe.

Just let me pull my money out first.

The chairman and chief executive of Countrywide Financial Corp., one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, exercised options for 70,000 shares of common stock under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

In a Form 4 filed with the SEC Thursday, Angelo R. Mozilo reported he exercised the options Wednesday for $9.60 apiece and then sold all 70,000 of them on the same day for $33.46 apiece.

The stock sale was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan which allows a company insider to set up a program in advance for such transactions and proceed with them even if he or she comes into possession of material non-public information.

Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

Countrywide is based in Calabasas, Calif.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070413/
countrywide_financial_insider_
transactions.html?.v=1; April 16, 2007 7:05 AM
Anonymous said...: FBI Mortgage Fraud Laws

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/
FBIMortgageFraudWarningFinal.pdf; April 16, 2007 7:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Citigroup Inc. Earnings Conference Call (Q1 2007)

Scheduled to start Mon, Apr 16, 2007, 11:30 am Eastern

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/6/79066.html; April 16, 2007 7:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Gold 686.4

http://www.kitco.com/
charts/livegold.html

USD 82.096

http://quotes.ino.com/
chart/?s=NYBOT_DX; April 16, 2007 7:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Little Mateo Mortgage 456loan.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R01X7b46LPk; April 16, 2007 7:41 AM
Anonymous said...: G7 is very scare and do not want to upset the Yen Carry Trade, so what is the IMF thinking.

First, IMF published a report on impact of bad Subprime loans in the US and now IMF went Hedge Funds to show the IMF their strategy on how the Hedge Funds created this Subprime mess.

Bundesbank's Weber calls for improved hedge fund transparency

There is a need for greater transparency in the hedge fund industry in order to better understand the risk they might pose to global financial stability, said Axel Weber, president of Germany's Bundesbank.

'There is still scope in my view for further improvement in the current setting, especially when it comes to transparency,' he said at panel on hedge fund surveillance held during the IMF and World Bank spring meeting.

While highlighting the positive impact of the hedge fund industry on financial markets, Weber said public authorities need a better understanding of their risk profiles.

'There are doubts as to whether the purely market-driven process of recent years has produced sufficient progress in this respect,' Weber said.

Because of this, he called for the financial supervisory authorities of different countries to come together to better monitor the issue.

'We should move forward to developing a strong case for a common benchmark of best practices,' said Weber.

He noted that the German presidency at the G7 this year has initiated a process which seeks greater insurance from the hedge fund industry against the potential risks to financial stability they may pose during adverse macroeconomic scenarios.

'Most of the instruments we are dealing with here haven't really seen a full credit cycle, and the risks of these instruments have to be known in good and in bad times,' Weber said.

'When push comes to shove we really need to be insured that these instruments can stand up to all the problems that can occur when the environment is less benign than in recent years,' he said.

http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/
news/15200756273.htm; April 16, 2007 7:55 AM
Anonymous said...: Here's an idea for a post: A lot of these overbuilt planned communities share a common assessment. What happens when the pool of homeowners shrinks?; April 16, 2007 3:59 PM
Anonymous said...: asgfagasfgfasdgdafg; April 16, 2007 4:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Great article here explains why we are not seeing the big declines talked about on this blog. They are there, but it is hidden in the details. Reminds me of a small book called How to lie with statistics. Here is the article

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article771.html; April 16, 2007 7:10 PM
Anonymous said...: I challenge Keith and the Keith-parrot-heads on this blog to rethink the notions that "the NAR is evil" or "David Lereah is evil".

OK, this is asking a lot. At the end of the day, the conclusion will be the same: they are evil scum.

But if the masses insist on behaving like idiotic sheeple, there will be no shortage of those who are willing to enrich themselves on the backs of the stupid people who continue to make stupid decisions and take stupid actions.

No one holds a gun to anyone's head and makes them take out a high-risk exotic loan for the sh|tbox in the "nice neighborhood" that the wifey wants so badly.; April 16, 2007 10:01 PM
Anonymous said...: "San Diego sees record number of foreclosures in March"

SAN DIEGO – A record 433 owners lost their homes in San Diego County to foreclosure last month, more than six times the March 2006 figure, DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.

http://tinyurl.com/2tqfbp; April 17, 2007 12:42 AM
Anonymous said...: California foreclosures near record levels
By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer
12:25 PM PDT, April 16, 2007

The number of Californians losing their homes to foreclosure rose in the first three months of the year to the highest level in a decade, a real estate information service said today, providing grim evidence that the shake-out in real estate is nowhere near over.

Foreclosures totaled 11,033, up 802% from the placid levels of early 2006, according to DataQuick Information Services in La Jolla. Foreclosures peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996, at the tail end of the last big slowdown in the state. They bottomed out at 637 in the second quarter of 2005, as the most recent boom was cresting.

Tens of thousands of homeowners are being warned that they too are at risk. Notices of default, sent by lenders after about five months of missed payments, reached 46,760 in the first quarter, DataQuick said.

That was a jump of 148% from the first quarter of 2006, and the highest since 47,912 in the second quarter of 1997. The peak for defaults was in the first quarter of 1996, with 61,541.

"I figured they'd go up," said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. "I didn't figure they'd go up this fast."

The default and foreclosure totals varied widely by area. Generally, the places with the cheapest housing--such as the Inland Empire and Central Valley--fared the worst.

Another problem spot is San Diego County, where the 1,183 foreclosures is the highest since DataQuick began tracking this information in 1988.

Most of the loans going into default now were made at the peak of the boom, when it seemed like the good times would continue forever and lending standards were lax.

In Los Angeles County, the default rate is almost 60% below the first-quarter 1996 peak, DataQuick said, an indication of strength in many sectors of the market.

david.streitfeld@latimes.com; April 17, 2007 12:45 AM
Anonymous said...: NEWS FLASH * * * * * California foreclosures near record levels
By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer
12:25 PM PDT, April 16, 2007

The number of Californians losing their homes to foreclosure rose in the first three months of the year to the highest level in a decade, a real estate information service said today, providing grim evidence that the shake-out in real estate is nowhere near over.

Foreclosures totaled 11,033, up 802% from the placid levels of early 2006, according to DataQuick Information Services in La Jolla. Foreclosures peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996, at the tail end of the last big slowdown in the state. They bottomed out at 637 in the second quarter of 2005, as the most recent boom was cresting.

Tens of thousands of homeowners are being warned that they too are at risk. Notices of default, sent by lenders after about five months of missed payments, reached 46,760 in the first quarter, DataQuick said.

That was a jump of 148% from the first quarter of 2006, and the highest since 47,912 in the second quarter of 1997. The peak for defaults was in the first quarter of 1996, with 61,541.

"I figured they'd go up," said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll. "I didn't figure they'd go up this fast."

The default and foreclosure totals varied widely by area. Generally, the places with the cheapest housing--such as the Inland Empire and Central Valley--fared the worst.

Another problem spot is San Diego County, where the 1,183 foreclosures is the highest since DataQuick began tracking this information in 1988.

Most of the loans going into default now were made at the peak of the boom, when it seemed like the good times would continue forever and lending standards were lax.

In Los Angeles County, the default rate is almost 60% below the first-quarter 1996 peak, DataQuick said, an indication of strength in many sectors of the market.; April 17, 2007 4:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Was the Uni gunman a TERRORIST

REPORTS have emerged that the gunman who killed 32 people in a rampage at a US university was a Chinese man who arrived in the country last year on a student visa.

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Michael Sneed reported today that sources have said the 24-year-old man arrived in San Francisco on United Airlines on Aug. 7 on a visa issued in Shanghai.

Investigators have not linked him to any TERRORIST GROUPS, the source said.

Sneed also reported sources said police believe THREE BOMB THREATS on the Virginia Tech University campus last week may have been ATTEMPTS BY THE MAN TO TEST THE CAMPUS' SECURITY RESPONSE.

The first hint at the identity of the gunman, who took 32 lives before killing himself in a rampage through the university yesterday, emerged as pictures of the victims and survivors' stories began to emerge.

"He was, I would say, about a little bit under six feet (183 cm) tall, young looking, Asian, dressed sort of strangely, almost like a boy scout, very short-sleeved light, tan shirt and some sort of ammo vest with black over it,'' Sheehan said.

She said he was carrying what appeared to be a black handgun and peeked in twice to the class before later coming back with murderous intent.

``He just stepped within five feet (1.5 metres) of the door and started firing,'' said Sheehan, a freshman (first year) mechanical engineering major.

``He seemed very thorough about it, getting almost everyone down. I was trying to act dead,'' she said.

``He left for about 30 seconds, came back in, did almost exactly the same thing. I guess he heard us still talking.

``And then we forced ourselves against the door so he couldn't come in again, the door would not lock. And so he came and tried to force himself in another three times and started shooting through the door.''

http://www.news.com.au/
dailytelegraph/story/
0,22049,21571821-5001021,00.html; April 17, 2007 7:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Where did the shooter get his guns? Update: an answer?

If the reports are accurate, we have a 24-year-old Chinese national in the US on a student visa as the VTech shooter. I don’t know a great deal about the process for student visa holders to obtain firearms, but I have a friend who does know quite a bit about it. So I’ll defer to an email he just sent me.

Section 121 of Public Law 105-277, the Omnibus Appropriations Act for 1999, amended the Gun Control Act of 1968 to prohibit, with certain exceptions, the transfer to and possession of firearms by aliens admitted to the United States under a nonimmigrant visa. This definition includes, in large part, persons traveling temporarily in the United States for business or pleasure, persons studying in the United States who maintain a residence abroad, and certain foreign workers. Therefore, you, as a Federal firearms licensee, are prohibited from transferring firearms to aliens that fall within this category.

Call BS all you like, but I just spent the last several hours with 3 ATF agents. I saw the shooter’s picture. I know his name and home address. I also know that he used a Glock 19 and a Walther P-22. The serial number was ground off the Glock. Why would he do that and still keep the receipt in his pocket from when he bought the gun?

ATF told me that they are going to keep this low-key and not report this to the tv news. However, they cautioned that it will leak out eventually, and that I should be ready to deal with CNN, FOX, etc.
My 32 camera surveillance system recorded the event 35 days ago. This is a digital system that only keeps the video for 35 days. We got lucky.

By the way, the paperwork for Mr. Cho was perfect, thank God.

http://hotair.com/archives/
2007/04/16/where-did-the-shooter
-get-his-guns/; April 17, 2007 7:15 AM
Anonymous said...: The gunman, Perkins said, first shot the professor in the head and then fired on the students.

Perkins said the gunman was about 19 years old and had a "very serious but very calm look on his face."

In all, the death toll of the two shootings was 33, including the gunman. At least 15 people were wounded, four seriously.

The methodical mass murder forever stamped tragedy on the picturesque campus nestled in the western foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Officers arriving on the scene found at least two doors chained to prevent the building's occupants from escaping, police said.

Young people and faculty members carried out some of the wounded themselves, without waiting for ambulances to arrive. Many found themselves trapped behind the chained and padlocked doors.

SWAT team members and FBI agents with helmets, flak jackets and assault rifles swarmed over the campus.

SWAT team members rushed them downstairs, but the doors were chained and padlocked from the inside.

Sheree Mixell, a spokeswoman for the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the evidence was being moved to the agency's national lab in Annandale, Va. At least one firearm was turned over, she said.

Mixell would not comment on what types of weapons were used or whether the gunman was a student.

http://www.foxnews.com/
story/0,2933,266463,00.html; April 17, 2007 7:31 AM
Anonymous said...: Give me a great big break.......obviously this man had a plan and he did what he intended to do, without regard to any human life. This could have happened anywhere and at anytime if someone has this sort of an agenda.

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/
2007/04/17/news/
doc46238719125a1529173517.txt; April 17, 2007 7:35 AM
Anonymous said...: Witnesses described the shooter to MSNBC as a man in his 20s, wearing a maroon cap and a black leather jacket. He was armed with two pistols and multiple clips of ammunition, the Associated Press reported, citing unidentified law officials. At least two witnesses told CNN the shooter was Asian.

Chinese National

Authorities are investigating whether the gunman was a 24- year-old Chinese national who arrived in San Francisco on a United Airlines flight on Aug. 7 last year on a student visa issued in Shanghai, the Chicago Sun-Times newspaper reported on its Web site, citing an unidentified official.

Police have a ``preliminary'' identification for the Norris Hall shooter, said Flinchum, who declined to give more details. The shooter and the ``person of interest'' are ``not the same person,'' Flinchum said.

Ballistic tests are being conducted to try and determine any connections between the two sites, Flinchum said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601087&sid=
ahz0htl7kS1M&refer=home; April 17, 2007 8:19 AM
Anonymous said...: He is an Asian-American student at Virginia Tech University, whose personal blogs reveal a recently wounded heart and an eye-opening gun fetish.

But Wayne Chiang - the subject of fevered speculation on the internet - is not the man responsible for this morning's massacre at the southern US university.

Rumours that Chiang, 23, was the mass murderer spread across the world after links to his various blogs were posted on social networking website Facebook and similar sites. Many noted the similarities between Chiang and the person described in accounts of the Virginia Tech tragedy as the shooter.

More than 80,000 people visited Chiang's sites. The sites are decorated with photos of Chiang posing with semi-automatic weapons and Russian rifles. His last post before the killings showed him proudly standing alongside 14 Russian Mosin Nagant M44 weapons.

The sites also suggested a recent break-up, quoting maudlin love songs by Justin Timberlake and Katie Melua and quoting an "American proverb": "There are plenty of fish in the sea". One of the blogs was titled "Those who love at first sight are traitors at every glance".

At 10.29pm US Eastern time, Chiang finally sought to clear up the confusion.

"Coming out," his post said. "I am not the shooter. Through this experience, I have received numerous death threats, slanderous accusations, and my phone is out of charge from the barrage of calls. Local police have been notified of the situation."

Later, he sent his condolences to the families of those killed in Virginia, signing off with the slogan, "Go Hokies."

In an interview with American ABC, Chiang said: "Right now pretty much the internet thinks it is me . . . I am just interested in trying to clear my name.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/
world/the-internet-thinks-its-me/
2007/04/17/1176696821109.html; April 17, 2007 8:29 AM
The Editor said...: I think your readers will find the slides I published from a banking conference very interesting. Enjoy.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/; April 17, 2007 7:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Fannie Mae, in a new program called "HomeStay," is offering new options so that lenders can help subprime borrowers refinance out of high-interest adjustable-rate mortgages or other difficult loans, said President and CEO Daniel Mudd. He said the company plans to stretch the term on subprime loans to 40 years from the current maximum 30 years — which will reduce monthly payments for borrowers by around 5 percent.
___________________

Are they kidding? Does Congress --and Fannie Mae -- really think a 5% reduction in monthly payments is gonna save the majority of the FBs who are in WAY over their heads????; April 18, 2007 12:02 AM
Anonymous said...: Cost of Food and Gas do not count when measuring Core Inflation.

Core US CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.1 pct compared to market forecasts for a 0.2 pct increase.

Don't tell that to the Califorians.

Californians Cut Spending to Pay for Gas

Many Californians are tweaking their budgets to compensate for the high price of gasoline, according to a field poll released today. Those who make under $40,000 a year are most affected, said poll director Mark DiCamillo.

"A large portion of Californians, 44 percent, think that the recent gas price increases are causing them to cut back in other areas of spending. This is particularly true among lower income residents, 62 percent of whom say they're cutting back in other areas. That's more than twice the proportion who say this among higher income groups," he said.

When asked who was to blame for the price hikes, two out of three people polled said the oil companies were responsible. "Oil companies bear much of the blame when things go wrong in relation to gasoline prices and it's certainly the case again. Sixty-five percent of Californians say oil companies are a lot to blame for the current problem, but another 46 percent blame the Bush administration," said DiCamillo.

Thirty-seven percent place the blame on foreign countries that produce the oil, and 29 percent said Americans' driving habits are forcing prices up.

A similar poll was put out two years ago, after gas prices first reached the $2 per gallon level. DiCamillo said the findings in today’s poll suggest drivers are used to $2 a gallon, which is why they aren’t outraged at current prices.

And No one said a WEAKER DOLLAR, SURPRISE! SURPRISE! SURPRISE!

http://kcbs.com/pages/
360418.php?contentType=
4&contentId=416950; April 18, 2007 2:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Aegis Lending Corp. shut its Sacramento lending office on April 6 letting about 25 employees go. The move by the Houston-based company was part of an overall repositioning of the company, said a company spokesman.

The Sacramento Aegis office, which was in South Natomas, focused on subprime lending.

The move to close the Sacramento office comes as subprime mortgage lending across the country is tanking as those type of mortgages issued over the past few years have gone into default in record numbers.

http://eastbay.bizjournals.com/
eastbay/othercities/sacramento/
stories/2007/04/16/
daily25.html?b=1176696000^1448321; April 18, 2007 6:41 AM
Anonymous said...: SunTrust Banks Inc., the seventh-largest U.S. bank, said on Tuesday first-quarter profit fell 3 percent as mortgage revenue plunged and loan losses increased.

Net income for the Atlanta-based company declined to $513.9 million, or $1.44 per share, from $531.5 million, or $1.46, a year earlier. Revenue rose 1 percent to $2.07 billion.

Mortgage profit sank 90 percent to $7.5 million from $77.6 million, hurt by lower margins on loans sold, lower servicing income and higher write-offs for "Alt-A" loans.

http://today.reuters.com/news/
articleinvesting.aspx?type=
bondsNews&storyID=2007-04-
17T143657Z_01_N17385190_
RTRIDST_0_SUNTRUST-RESULTS-
UPDATE-3.XML; April 18, 2007 6:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Washington Federal, Inc., parent company of Washington Federal Savings, today announced earnings of $33,483,000 or $.38 per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2007, compared to $36,340,000 or $.42 per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31, 2006, a 7.9% decrease in earnings.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/
provider/providerarticle.aspx?
Feed=MW&Date=20070416&ID=6753799; April 18, 2007 6:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Wells Fargo, the nation's fifth largest bank, said that deterioration in subprime mortgages forced it to slash revenues by some $90 million as it wrote down those loans and set aside money for defaults. Subprime mortgages are loans to borrowers with blemished credit or low credit scores.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/
APWires/business/D8OIJPKG2.html; April 18, 2007 6:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Washington Mutual Inc. reported a 20 percent slide in its first-quarter earnings Tuesday, citing a nationwide implosion of the subprime home loan market. Even so, the company beat Wall Street estimates, and its stock rose in after-hours trading.

Washington Mutual's home loans group posted a first-quarter loss of $113 million compared with a $52 million profit during the year-ago period. The company suffered a quarterly loss of $164 million on sales of subprime mortgages.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/
ap/2007/04/17/ap3623552.html; April 18, 2007 6:56 AM
Anonymous said...: M&T earnings fall 13%

The Buffalo-based company posted diluted earnings per share of $1.57, down 11.2 percent from $1.77 a year ago. Several weeks ago after M&T warned of lower earnings for the quarter, analysts adjusted their estimate to $1.56, down from $1.86 one month earlier.

In late March, M&T said it decided to shift $883 million of Alt-A loans previously held for sale to its held-for-investment residential mortgage loan portfolio, and that it was obligated to buy back previously sold Alt-A mortgages.

Almost the entire problem for M&T stemmed from its participation in the alternative mortgage, or Alt-A mortgage market. Alt-A mortgages are not subprime mortgages but were indirectly affected by current difficulties in the subprime lending sector, Wilmers said.

Asked after his presentation if he thought M&T's Alt-A problems were over and not likely to lead to a lowered earnings warning for the second quarter, Wilmers said "I hope they are behind us."

http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo
/stories/2007/04/16/daily14.html; April 18, 2007 7:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Homefield Financial Inc., a California-based mortgage banker specializing in non-traditional loans, has closed its wholesale mortgage business, the company said.

"It is with great regret that Homefield announces that the Homefield wholesale division will no longer be accepting broker applications for consideration of a broker/lender relationship, and/or loan application packages for loan approval," Homefield said.

The news was first reported on The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter, a blog that tracks the state of the mortgage-lending industry. Privately held Homefield -- a member of the Inc. 500 list of fast-growing private firms in 2004 and 2005 -- was the latest casualty of the downturn in the market for non-traditional mortgage loans.

According to the site www.mortageimplode.com, 58 mortgage lenders have stopped doing business since the sector downturn began in late 2006.

http://www.unionleader.com/
article.aspx?headline=
Homefield+quits+mortgage+
business&articleId=139a5563-
16c2-4d7f-9ba6-4eb04b041396; April 18, 2007 8:01 AM
Anonymous said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; March 18, 2013 4:19 PM