February 03, 2008

Time to revisit Deloitte Research and Carl Steidtmann, he of "The Housing Bubble Myth" fame, who called bubble blogs "bubble heads" and "idiots"


Hey, everyone can make a mistake or a bad call. I've made plenty of doozies. But then again, I'm not the Chief Economist for a "respected" auditing and research firm. One who you would have figured had studied past manias and bubbles in his econ 101 class, and would have seen the now-popped housing bubble as the single most obvious financial bubble in recorded human history.

Well, unfortunately for Deloitte's customers, their Chief Economist Carl Steidtmann made the mother of all bad calls in July 2005, with a paper entitled "The Housing Bubble Myth". Perfect timing - Carl perhaps hit the very tippy top of the housing bubble. Bravo Carl!

Hey, I'll cut him some slack. Those CDO's and SIV's were just toooooo confusing for a professional economist to dig into. "Liar's Loans" must have made perfect sense. An unregulated REIC had to have been acting in good faith. The lines of sheeple outside new condo developments were just signs of the "robust market" Carl talked about.

Carl also followed up in April 2007 after the bubble burst, trying to defend his bad call and save what shred of credibility might have been left, while calling the folks at iTulip "bubble heads" and "idiots" and stating "Why the housing market is not a bubble" again. Nice, Carl, very nice.

Note to Carl - when you find yourself in a massive gaping and obvious hole, stop digging. And don't make fun of the people who simply pointed out that you were in a hole. We got it right, you got it wrong, and it's time to give us "bubble heads" and "idiots" our props. And you might want to look for a new line of work, as you're now known as "a joke" as an economist

Here's his 2005 paper. Enjoy!

Economist's Corner: The Housing Bubble Myth


Issue: July 2005
By Carl Steidtmann, chief economist and director, Consumer Business, Deloitte Research

Everywhere you turn these days the buzz is about soaring real estate prices. If you are lucky enough to be a homeowner in one of the hot markets like South Florida or New York City, owning real estate is almost as good as winning the lottery.

The increase in household wealth is seen by many analysts, who can’t stand the thought that someone somewhere might be doing well in this economy, as a sign of some future catastrophe to come.

When you strip away all of the white noise around a housing bubble, what you find is a robust market for housing that is undergoing several profound changes all of which manifest themselves in higher home price indexes, none of which adds up to a housing price bubble.

Eventually mortgage rates will rise and the housing market will cool. But don’t expect the calamity that many of the housing bubble heads are hoping for.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Cat got yor tongue? oh wait...

http://www.prosoundweb.com/fun/Photofun/76-headupass.shtml

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

This, combined with the NAR, really raises eyebrows about the credibility of the "Chief Economist" title in *ANY* organization!

Anonymous said...

Wonder how much business the REIC gives Deloitte?

Nils M said...

Hey Keith - why not create a "Wall of Shame" collection of the top-20 bubble blowing pundit idiots of the past 5 years. Greenspan, Steidtmann, Tom Adkins etc. etc. with selected quotes and track records of disinformation. I'm sure we can all contribute with research. Then vote and rank.

The public must be warned to fully disregard any opinion or advice from this discredited bunch of quacks. Lessons must be documented for the benefit of future generations.

gadfly said...

I have a name for people like this:

JUDAS ECONOMISTS!

keith said...

Housing Bubble Hall of Shame

http://realestaterecord.blogspot.com/

Enjoy!

Anonymous said...

Now your talking! Where were the audit firms? Follow the money.... They failed (did not exercise ANY oversight - or worse the Partnership deliberately, with malice aforethought, aided the banks, brokers, NAR in the greatest crime in history).

When the history of this sorry mess is written (By the Chinese in 100 - 200 years as a postscript to Pax Americana) we will have sold ourselves, our mothers, and our children into slavery. In less politically correct cultures - criminals such as the folks who did this - would be put on public trial, condemned, and taken from court to be hung. Their property and all assets confiscated, their "pimp my ride" wives tossed out on the street with their Ipod sucking bastards so that the polity could see what happens to criminals who betray the public trust.

This "fair, sensible, and sane" treatment apply for our "bought and paid for representatives" who "look the other way - at best, or aided and abetted the plundering of the public trust by restraining/constraining the oversight bodies that were in place to prevent these types of activities.

We should all be asking ourselves - how much did our Congressional and Senatorial hacks get for repealing Glass-Stegall!

Follow the Money the Cancerman said....

Wake up folks! The truth is not only out there but could not be any more obvious!

Buzz Saw said...

Economist? That's just a made up word so someone can have a job.

WINGS said...

Carl looks like a shady character.

Perhaps a bat?

I want to pull his ears and say, "squeeel like a little piggy! SQUEEEEK!"

I want Mozillo and this bat to share a jail cell and really get to know each other.

My kittys want them to eat vittles.

WINGS said...

On second thought, I'd like to start the Pro-Am 2007 golf tournament using Carl's head as the golf ball.

Anonymous said...

This guy looks like a child molestor.

area 51 said...

I like the line:
"undergoing profound changes"
Translate into:
IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!

Anonymous said...

That's not Carl Steidtmann, that's Uncle Fester.

Anonymous said...

Hey, everyone can make a mistake or a bad call. I've made plenty of doozies. But then again, I'm not the Chief Economist for a "respected" auditing and research firm.



whatever, this guy's firm cooks books or atleast looks away while the exec's cook the books of major companies hiding thier real value from the shareholders. If lawyers reaside on the 9th plain of hell, auditors are on 8!

Anonymous said...

.


GEEZ, that guy looks like a mass murderer!


.

Bad World said...

In proper functioning economies, such guys lose their jobs and people going for their advise lose money.

Those with their own brain survive by seeing the crap far in advance.

Anonymous said...

Intelligence and truth are not valued commodities in America today so bunko artists like this guy can make a very comfortable living for himself.

Anonymous said...

BAAHWHHWAHAHAHAHAHAAA


BAAAAAAAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


AHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA

oh man, stop! that guy is killing me!!!

whitetower said...

Ah, now when I ask myself, "Who are the douchebags that justified these shady housing investment arrangements to begin with?" I can now put another name and face to that question.

Anonymous said...

"Perfect timing - Carl perhaps hit the very tippy top of the housing bubble."

____________________________________


...and Jamie Westenhiser [Playboy, May 2005] hit the tippy top of US housing starts.

Anonymous said...

They're saying the same thing about the stock market again. It's not in trouble, the fed have restored stability and confidence and "this time it will be different!"

Drunken UFO Pilot said...

There used to be an old joke about the purpose of economists is to make astrologers look good. Now astrologers are looking, by comparison, like geniuses!

6%? When donkeys fly said...

Speaking of bubbles...Mortgage rates finally fell last week after all of Uncle Bens cuts...Our local credit union dropped from 6% to 5 1/2% for a fixed /15 year note. problem is that house values are still tanking so what good does it do?

Anonymous said...

Is that Satan?