February 21, 2008


No, this is not a HP April Fools joke, it's real. Yun still has his head up his rear, and is still putting out bulls*it forecasts, but I think he's trying to prepare the ground for his eventual and unavoidable resignation from the NAR, knowing he'll need to find new work after that.

You'll love the latest commentary from Yun - he tries to throw HousingPANIC under the bus, and even defends Alan Greenspan, saying he didn't cause the housing bubble. Unreal.

A simple question comes to mind - how much longer will the six-percenters keep paying their dues to the very organization doing them the most harm?

Here's the latest musings from the most discredited economist in the world, Lawrence Yun, writing for the most discredited organization in the world, the National Association of Realtors:

Back in 2001, in the aftermath of the internet stock bubble collapse and the September 11 terrorist attacks, Alan Greenspan — then the Fed chairman — made deep cuts in interest rates in order to stave off a possible economic recession. Many also blame Mr. Greenspan for having fueled the housing market bubble and subsequent collapse by keeping the rates too low for too long.

Though some in the blogosphere have figured Alan Greenspan as one of the key persons to blame for the current housing mess, I do not blame Mr. Greenspan. I believe there is plenty of blame to go around due to other factors.

It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%.

I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster's job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.

Will we experience a re-emergence of a housing boom from the current easy money policy by the Fed? The answer is no because as Abraham Lincoln said — fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It will be impossible to part global capital providers' money with another foolish investment.


MrArt said...

There were also many books about how to endlessly profit from real estate.

Genius! Is he including his predecessor's book?!

Metroplexual said...

Pigs fly? I resemble that remark!

Anonymous said...

The whole problem with your "forecasts" Mr. Yun, is that they are not and have not EVER been based on true, objective data. You are nothing more than a paid shill that HAD to put a happy face on anything housing-related.

The obvious downfall to that approach, is like your predecessor, you LOSE all credibility very quickly!!

Tough way to make a living, huh?? I think I would rather pour coffee than see my integrity and reputation go down the loo like that.........

keith said...

Respected economists are predicting a 25% fall in home prices while Yun and the NAR predicts flat prices for 2008

So who do you believe?

The NAR has lost ALL respect. They no longer have ANY credibility. I just wish the MSM would do their jobs and report the NAR's past misdeeds and failures, vs. copying and pasting their press releases as news

And believe it or not, I feel sorry for Yun. I gave him a chance to redeem himself and come clean, and he refused to do so. Today is a first step, and even linking to HP - go figure. But he must really need the money and the job. It's sad to watch someone sell out their very soul.

Life's too short to be a paid liar, and I'm sure it's eating away at Yun's soul.

Anonymous said...

And the house of cards crumble.

Shit is about to hit the fan.


Anonymous said...


This is the best Translation yet of Bernanke's most recent comments on the state of the Union..

Freaking Priceless!!


Anonymous said...

He admits he reads housingpanic!

Hi Lawrence!

Princess Mononoke said...

This WILL be the year that ALL of the corruption, greed and fraud is REVEALED/EXPOSED!!!

Darkness can not exist where there is LIGHT!

~ RUN roaches RUN ~

michael said...

huh...i didn't realize it was lincoln that said that.


yun's a donkey btw.

tater said...

Where do I sign up for the funny farm? DID I READ WHERE YUN admitted to being wrong about something?

Hey NAR, Your front-man is starting to ease out the door.

I can see it now. Suzanne will be the next NAR top dog economist.

Anonymous said...

Proper forecasting only takes a little bit of good data and a lot of common sense.

Anyone can come up with BS forecasts by injected flawed or biased stats into their models. The brainiacs at the Wall Street firms and banks used foreclosure data from 2003-2005 to predict that subprime foreclosures would remain under 1% going forward.

keith said...

"It will be impossible to part global capital providers' money with another foolish investment."

He could also have said

"It will be impossible to part potential homebuyers' money with another foolish investment recommened by me, David Lereah, the NAR or 1.3 million REALTORS"

Boom2Bust.com said...

Pigs MUST be flying. From MarketWatch.com yesterday:

"Fed officials have recently begun to emphasize headline inflation after years of just focusing on core prices."

Anonymous said...

Congratulations to Mr Yun for reaching the final stage of grief. Now the healing can begin.

Anonymous said...

aaaaaaaaaahahahahhaha blow me!

Max said...

Somebody pinch me, I must be dreaming.

Maybe one of the HP'er channelled through Yun? Any witches here?

Andy in San Diego said...

Wow, that list of his is really funny. Either he knew exactly what was happening and should have been able to predict the results (like so many of us with half a brain), or he just read all of the HousingPANIC postings and got an education. Either way he reveals himself as a liar or an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Oh I can't wait to see Andrew Hac's latest post: Americano is toasted as a pig oozing from head to ass.... All the while ignoring the fact that China is a pathetic third world nation that has more problems than anyone can dream of. Oh, but instead of cleaning up my own backyard, I will call Americanos a bunch of pigs, idiots, and morans.

Anonymous said...

So Yun comes clean when will Greg Swann?

Anonymous said...

Seriously? He finally (starts to) come clean?! This article gave me the feeling like when i was a child and SWORE up and down that pro wrestling was real to anybody who would listne, then one day when the hulk was interviewed by a serious journalist, it was obviuous that his whole thing was an act the whole time. It was like I just learned I had been had! I never watched wwf again...

Стивен said...

Dear Mr. Yun:

It's a transparently weak move to pick a fight (and lose) with a small-fry blog like this. You'd at least earn a little respect if you went up against the big boys, such as Roubini:

The Forthcoming “Jingle Mail” Tsunami: 10 to 15 Million Households Likely to Walk Away from their Homes/Mortgages Leading to a Systemic Banking Crisis

and the Financial Times channeling Roubini:

America’s economy risks mother of all meltdowns:
"I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth – lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy.” Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.

That used to be Mr Greenspan’s view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? ... The connection between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers, for the US and the rest of the world.

P.S. I see that 10897 Woodleaf Lane, in Great Falls, Virginia, the former home of NAR's last president unsold since Q3 2006, was just reduced by another $90K. It's still $400K overpriced. Good luck with that.

Стивен said...

RE: P.S. I see that 10897 Woodleaf Lane, in Great Falls, Virginia, the former home of NAR's last president unsold since Q3 2006, was just reduced by another $90K. It's still $400K overpriced. Good luck with that.

Oops. Make that unsold since Q3 2005. My mistake. Time for the MSM to pick up this confidence-instilling story about the NAR again.

Стивен said...

P.P.S. To see how the NAR plays fraudulent games with home prices, take the very example of the unsold home by the former NAR president himself.

The property is listed at $1,195,000 ($105K less than the 2001 purchase price of $1.3 million). The original list price in 2005 was $1,950,000. Yet as of 2/21 2008, Redfin says that "Original Price" was $1,285,000. This is a serious misrepresentation of the price history to potential buyers.

Seriously, shouldn't overtly fraudulent practices like this be reported to State Attorney Generals? Any VA-based HP-ers that would like to file this report with AG Bob McDonnell? Any attorneys know if federal law applies because this is advertised for sale over state lines?

Keith keeps asking for a Mozillo perp-walk, but he's just one bad apple who had his day. NAR's fraudulence lives on, and won't stop until a high profile prosecution, class-action suit, or internet obsoleteness, the last two being most likely.

Anonymous said...

NAR predicts flat prices for 2008

i've never seen a flat market in my 20+ years of investing. (stocks and real estate) when prices are rising you get an increase of buyers, pushing prices higher. when prices are falling or flat, they become sellers, further depressing prices. nobody is going to hold on to an investment with flat (0%) returns

B said...

You know, I'm kind of sad...

This was a fun club to be part of, and now even Lawrence Yun wants in.

So, Keith, in about 5 or 6 years are you going to have a blog that is excoriating people for not buying a house, even as the masses cling desperately to their rentals?


BubbleGirl said...

Wow, Keith, you are God! You finally got to them. This is truly amazing. Have you seen Diane Orlick's blog entry today regarding whether it is cheating when realtors "relist" a home after it has been languishing on the market for a long time. Interesting questions now being raised in some parts of MSM. It's like the stones are being turned over and all the yucky stuff is being exposed in the housing market world. I'm feeling pretty vindicated right now. I was being balked at only a year ago by family. Only a year ago my 74 year old Dad was saying "Real estate prices only go up, you should really think about buying" He's not an ass but was just completely unaware of the shenanigans (sp?) that were going on. Now he knows and I think I look pretty genius but it is sad for my parents because they have lost equity and they are not rich by any means...i think they'll be fine but I hate to relish in the fact that some really good, unsuspecting people are now losing equity (those that bought before the crazy bubble). I know, I know, it wasn't real equity to begin with but i'm just thinking of my family especially my retired parents who raised 5 kids and never made much money (dad was an elementary school principal for 30+ years). Anyway, I hope it all works out for the innocent ones, but the guilty ones can fry!
Glad I didn't buy!

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

michael said...
huh...i didn't realize it was lincoln that said that.

I don't think Abe actually said that. He did say "You can fool some of the people all of the time and you can fool all of the people some of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. As usual, anything Yun says gets printed without question.

keith said...

It was Greenspan's responsibility to oversee the lenders, which he failed to do, in addition he obviously left the rate too low for too long, he wasn't more stern in his speech regarding the bubble, and he also was out encouraging people to take out ARMs and creative financing

Does Yun not know this?

You know, he's so incompetent, I don't think he does.

Anonymous said...

What a minute, Lawrence Yun just admitted he reads HP...

Lawrence Yun is DOPES!!!!!!

Now it all makes sense!


DOPES said...

"But back to the original question: Will we experience a re-emergence of a housing boom from the current easy money policy by the Fed? The answer is no because as Abraham Lincoln said — fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It will be impossible to part global capital providers' money with another foolish investment."



BUY!!! SELL!!! BUY!!! SELL!!!


Anonymous said...

The Ugly Truth Comes Out, Part 743:

"Flip This House" Star Indicted

Armando Montelongo accused of failing to pay real estate appraisers


Peter T said...

There was another interesting part in Yun's article, putting much of the blame where it belongs, the three rating agenices. To understand the agencies' responsibility, one should know that they have a quasi-monopoly from the government, which they have abused ruthlessly. Yun:
> But the biggest blame in my view goes to Moody's and Standard & Poor's — the rating agencies. If they had properly assessed the risk as is their job, then global capital would have never reached subprime homebuyers and flippers. (...) Many workers at Moody's and Standard & Poor's took home hefty bonus checks when revenue skyrocketed from providing high ratings.

Government rules force bond issuers to get the judgement of an _established_ agency, thereby locking other, competing rating agencies out of the market. The established agencies got a license to make money without competition, and they have abused their position.

Together with another governnment monopoly, the Fed, the rating agencies brought us the housing bubble. A third monopoly, the NAR with their MLSs, which the government failed to break up, was happy to share the spoils.

Mark in San Diego said...

Keith -

You won - you can now go on your hard earned vacation. . .there is no more opposition (except the lunatic fringe used home salespersons - but they don't matter anyway). . .what next?? Maybe a Happy Days are Here Again Depression Web site???

Paul E. Math said...

Lawrence Yun is a complete and utter tool.

It is understandable if a person's forecast is off for 12 straight months. But if it is always off in one direction then one can conclude fairly confidently that the forecaster is biased.

Yun's forecasts ALWAYS underestimated the declines in sales and in prices. Every single forecast predicted that real estate would be better than it actually was.

Yun's bias is absolutely obvious and he deserves all the shame and discredit that he now enjoys.

And he is still underestimating the declines!

Anonymous said...

From Paper Economy:
4/30/2007 Lereah Leaves NAR
5/9/2007 Prediction: 6.29 million units. Yun "Housing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts."
6/6/2007 Prediction: 6.18 million units. Yun "Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year."
7/11/2007 Prediction: 6.11 million units. Yun "Home prices are expected to recover in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year."
8/8/2007 Prediction: 6.04 million units. Yun “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”
9/11/2007 Prediction: 5.92 million units. Yun “Patient buyers in most areas who do their homework will recognize that housing remains a good long-term investment.”
10/10/2007 Prediction: 5.78 million units. Yun "The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains."

i've had it said...

keith, congrats on getting Yun to role over! an incredible victory!

Newport Coast Renter said...

The Ugly Truth Comes Out, Part 743:

"Flip This House" Star Indicted

Armando Montelongo accused of failing to pay real estate appraisers


February 21, 2008 10:55 PM

Dude: That guy was such a loser; foul mouth; fat; arrogant - thought he knew everything. The wives were pretty cool, though - chick power stuff & much prettier.

Anonymous said...

Why doesn't the NAR start running some "Hey Sellers...it was a bubble...lower your damn prices!" ad campaign?

It might gain them a smidgen of credibility. But then, each individual homedebtor will think that their home is the exception.


Game over.

People lose their homes and the REIC famine starts.