February 29, 2008

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Do you understand how the dollar's destruction affects you?

38 comments:

bickerer said...

Maybe vagely. I know this:

If oil continues exploding in price everyone will stop flying and those of us in aircraft design (which is pretty damn far from the housing industry) could find ourselves on the street.

Andrew from Russia said...

The Russians have just got a foreign-exchange gift for the presidential election this Sunday: USD breaking below 24 roubles - the 1999 rate - with purchasing power 1/4th of that! Looks to be either a turnaround point, or a point of no return. We, the under-the-mattress C-note hoarders (distrustful of the $470B worth of CB reserves) hope for the former.

Anonymous said...

bickerer..

When the economy tanks and profits tank, people will lose their jobs.

When people will lose their jobs, they'll cut their energy consumption and other consumption.

When energy consumption drops, oil prices will drop.

When general consumption drops, profits will drop and markets will tanks.

When markets tank, margin calls will soar and sepculators will have to sell their commodity positions, including the energy ones. Oils prices will tank some more.

All roads lead to Rome... no matter what happens to the oil price, less people will be flying for a couple of years at least.

Anonymous said...

somewhat. As I understand it imports become expensive and exports become cheap. So anything I purchase that is an import will cost more. The biggest import that we cannot avoid is oil, i.e. gasoline. The cost of this expensive import serves as a tax on everything else because the energy used to make and transport all other goods foundationally requires oil. Plus some products are manufatured from oil, e.g. plastics, so they will also go up. Plastics are a common packing material for virtually everything so that will tack on another cost to just about everything.

The US is a big exporter, so any business that produces goods and services in demand outside the US should benefit. Assets in the US will become very cheap from the perspective of foreigners so they will be attracted to invest in US assets.

However this increased investing and export activity will not be enough to offset all the costs and pain associated with raging inflation and employment will skyrocket and likely further exacerbate the housing markets plummet.

Best bet, work for the gov't, rent and bike to work. Invest overseas and in energy. Put your assets in hard curreny investments, e.g. everbank CDs & accounts in Loonies, Euros, sterling and Aussie & New Zealand dollars.

Anonymous said...

Of course. Everything is more expensive so you can afford less of everything and your savings will be crushed

Start at the Top said...

Revolution and blood in the streets.

Start at the TOP.

Think "Mussolini" and that telephone pole and rope...

Anonymous said...

Some of you mention loss of jobs...
How does this effect federal employees? Do you think that a rift is possible in the upcoming years?

Would like some advice.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

I'm in R&D and I'm losing my job, that has never ever happened here before.

Tray Deee said...

I'm a state employee and was one during the 2001 recession (not Federal).

I can tell you that no one got fired and no one got hired. If a job was vacant, it was cut from the budget and that was called a layoff of a state employee.

We also never got raises but did get bonuses. We either got a one-time bonus for less than 3% of your income or go a bonuse two weeks off work. If inflation kicks in, that amounts to a pay cut.

Hourly employees fared worse because they got no raise, no bonus, and cut hours.

Not the best outcome but better than being a realtor. My advice would be to anticiate cuts in real income but keeping your job.

Anonymous said...

When da broads at the strip club wouldn't take singles!

Anonymous said...

Look folks, we Americans don't have to worry that much. The dollar will fluctuate and the price of the dollar will go up and down. But the Dollar is still the world's reserve currency. The world still places it's faith on the U.S. and during times of economic or political crisis, there is a mad rush for American denominated assets. Besides, the rest of the world has so many dollars in their reserves it would be foolish for them to see the Dollar crash.

happy americano said...

Ok, Keeferoonie,
Quick side topic question.

Given all your exotic travels, perhaps you can enlighten us on this very pressing issue.

WTF is up with European teeth?

We can understand they may not want to use braces, cause of the plaque and climate change connection. Or that straight teeth have larger gaps hence increasing the velocity of co2 when exhaling, etc. etc.

But, by galie; don’t they have toothpaste over there?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Some of you mention loss of jobs...
How does this effect federal employees? Do you think that a rift is possible in the upcoming years?

Would like some advice.

Thanks

February 29, 2008 3:28 PM
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I presume you mean a Reduction in Force, i.e. RIF.

It happened in the 90's Fed. Gov't wide, but that was before the advent of the wave of Fed. Gov't contracting.

I definitely look for a RIF in DOD post conflict and also the elimination of alot of gov't contractor positions (i.e. cancellation or non-renewal of contracts). They will also likely institute a hiring freeze Fr. Gov't wide as they did in the 90's. But they will likely permit replacement hiring to occur and also designate certain positions as critical and keep hiring there. Look for pay raises, promotions, bonuses and step increases harder to come by. If your already well into a Fed. Gov't career then you should be fine and thankful that you'll have a steady/stable job. Anyone in the 1-2 year career condiitonal phase my not be retained purely for budgetary reasons. IF the RIF does get put into place, then it will be workers under 10 years who have the most to worry about.

Good Luck

Anonymous said...

Most people don't understand what inflation and the debasement of the dollar means to them. The gradual erosion in their standard of living and buying power goes mostly unnoticed because it is a gradual process. The credit and housing bubble didn't help either as it made many people feel wealthy although only temporarily.

Ultimately most people just do not understand what inflation is. I guess they don't teach basic high school economics here in the US.

Anonymous said...

Look folks, we Americans don't have to worry that much. The dollar will fluctuate and the price of the dollar will go up and down. But the Dollar is still the world's reserve currency. The world still places it's faith on the U.S. and during times of economic or political crisis, there is a mad rush for American denominated assets.

Obviously you haven't been paying attention. The dollar is gradually losing it's status as the world's reserve currency. The falling dollar is an indicator of the loss of faith in the US dollar. Do you think the US is going to maintain reserve currency status forever at the rate the dollar is falling?

resisting husband said...

I think its good for me:

I am graduating from Law school in about 2 months and the only "asset" i will have is my student loan debt, which is fixed at 2.8% on a 10 year re-pay. i would presume that the dollar destruction is great for those who owe money like me, because as it gets destroyed the price of everything will go up and (hopefully) salary/wages commensurate with that.

I would guess the only people that get screwed by the destruction of the dollar are the people who have a lot of dollars (i.e. actual cash)

(Caveat - i know zero about economics/finances... i am only on HP because even a retard like me knew this housing thing was insane)

Anonymous said...

everbank CDs & accounts in Loonies, Euros, sterling and Aussie & New Zealand dollars.

What dumb advice.

Labour will flood the markets with pounds "sterling," which have been a floating fiat currency for decades now (despite the misleading name). Don't believe me? Check the levels of personal indebtedness in the UK at the moment -- it's almost 40% higher per person than the USA.

The Loonie will lose value as the Bank of Canada struggles to avoid excessive strength versus the US dollar. Anything else will result in the mass liquidation of Canadian manufacturing, as most of the stuff they make is sold into the USA.

Euros? Please. Socialist economic policy governs that currency, which is currently sitting on top of its own housing and credit bubble that makes the US one look small.

Aussie and NZ $s are only worth the paper they're printed on.

No fiat currency will survive the coming economic crisis unscathed. The USD is just tanking a bit earlier than the others, because traders have deluded themselves into thinking the debt bubble was limited to US subprime mortgages, and not a global tendency to spend well beyond one's income.

Anonymous said...

From: Noodles

To: Resisting Husband

So you're willing to burn the economy so your debt is lessen, not taking into consideration alllllll the variables such as less work, lower pay even though the amounts are bigger on the checks and the boost in broken families, drug/alcohol abuse and crime.

What kind of life and future will you leave your children?

Take a peek at Argentina and Mexico after the fall of their currency...Even Doctors and lawyers became taxi drivers and waiters to pay bills...So careful what you ask for.

Anonymous said...

resisting husband said...
I think its good for me:

I am graduating from Law school in about 2 months...
---------------

Good for you, America needs more lawyers.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
everbank CDs & accounts in Loonies, Euros, sterling and Aussie & New Zealand dollars.

What dumb advice.

Labour will flood the markets with pounds "sterling," which have been a floating fiat currency for decades now (despite the misleading name). Don't believe me? Check the levels of personal indebtedness in the UK at the moment -- it's almost 40% higher per person than the USA.

The Loonie will lose value as the Bank of Canada struggles to avoid excessive strength versus the US dollar. Anything else will result in the mass liquidation of Canadian manufacturing, as most of the stuff they make is sold into the USA.

Euros? Please. Socialist economic policy governs that currency, which is currently sitting on top of its own housing and credit bubble that makes the US one look small.

Aussie and NZ $s are only worth the paper they're printed on.

No fiat currency will survive the coming economic crisis unscathed. The USD is just tanking a bit earlier than the others, because traders have deluded themselves into thinking the debt bubble was limited to US subprime mortgages, and not a global tendency to spend well beyond one's income.

February 29, 2008 6:33 PM
------------
Well then Professor Know-it-all instead of arfully dodging the rest of the poster's commentary and focusing on one thing that you personally disagree with how about saying something constructive? But let me guess you're investing in ammo and can goods and hiding in your cellar for the next decade. My overseas investments have been holding up very well, God love taht Canadian Oil Sand Trust!! and I invested using Loonies and have the situs for it in Canada, the profits of which will be swept into my tax Canadian tax free savings account. Too bad the US does not promote savings like the do spending, I'm certain they would not have the problems they have now if they did.

Dumb@$$

Anonymous said...

Some of you mention loss of jobs...
How does this effect federal employees? Do you think that a rift is possible in the upcoming years?

Would like some advice.
------------------------

Its not really a federal or state job situation.

More appropriately, its what do you do in the private sector or the government sector.

Anything in public safety is sacred. Think Cops and firefighters? After all they (the firefighters)are our "heroes" who risk their lives by keeping those fire engines shiny and clean.

Education is another matter. Look for layoffs since teachers are responsible for everything that is wrong with this country.

Healthcare is good field to be in. The world needs more doctors who presribe antibiotics for all the worlds illnesses.

We also need more investment bankers with lots of money and idle time to contribute to this blog.

peace out.

Anonymous said...

For those that don't understand, read Peter Schiff's latest post:

http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=12003

What makes me so angry is when people downplay inflation like it's not a big deal. It might not be a big deal if you're making six figures (actually, it is still a big deal) but the majority of American's don't and they are the first to suffer from inflation. They get poorer and poorer and can never catch up.

When a shithead like Mike "Moron" Norman says "inflation is an annoyance" it just makes me want to reach through the TV screen and strangle the mofo!!! Grrrrrhh I hate that worm so much!!!

Anonymous said...

What's on Idol?

BondsOfSteel said...

Hmmm. Yes, cash in any currency is at inflationary risk.

Real assets, stocks, commodities, real estate... should hold their intrinsic value. Of course, they are subject to valuation bubbles based on the amount of cash in the monetary supply. Any of these (including real estate) should be ‘safe’ from inflation… if you can buy at a good price.

Real estate has not recovered from its valuation bubble, but since location is key to its valuation, there could be some buys somewhere.

Commodities are currently entering into a valuation bubble.

Stocks, which will still decline as earnings reduce, look to me the best buy. Large diversified internationals selling consumer staples should have less currency risk and can pass price increases to consumers.

Anonymous said...

WTF is up with European teeth?

I dunno, ask all the hicks in America and the white trash and the crack heads.

Anonymous said...

Thank god we have Blue States to carry this country on the back. I just love my new Apple TV Take 2. All we get from Red States are morons such as Frank and Ed.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous idiot, I'd rather hold other currencies than US dollars. Even the Yuan is up 22% vs the USD from two years ago, plus it pays 9% interest. Only a moron would be holding USD. The world has no interest in sinking their own ships just because The Fed and US government has decided to sink the USA. The Aussie and Canadian dollars are strong because they have commodities to back their currency. The Chinese have manufacturing to back theirs. The US has nothing except guns and that won't last long as people are sick of fighting expensive wars for empire building.

Anonymous said...

Look folks, we Americans don't have to worry that much. The dollar will fluctuate and the price of the dollar will go up and down. But the Dollar is still the world's reserve currency.

Hmmm, let's see:

* China, your banker and master, is diversifying its reserves into other currencies while reducing drastically exposure to US Dollar = check

* Oil producers are moving into Euros and reducing dollar = check

* Multimillionaire supermodels require payment in Euros = check

* Drug cartels moved to Euros = check

* NYC retail stores now accept Euros from tourists = check

* Following the advice of Schiff and Jim Rogers, I've been moving my reserves into Euros and Emerging Market currencies for years = check

Now go fly your Made in China-flag, American Patridiot™.

Anonymous said...

Look folks, we Americans don't have to worry that much. The dollar will fluctuate and the price of the dollar will go up and down. But the Dollar is still the world's reserve currency.

Dumbass, the point is that as inflation goes up it forces prices up but your income and savings do not keep pace with the rise in prices. That means you're ass is getting poorer and poorer and you have to work harder and harder to buy the same shit you were buying before.

Bart Err said...

Stripping for pesos?

Slovics buying my Garbage Pail Collection on ebay for rubbles on the dollar?

American Idol CD's being used as legal tender?

Batman said...

Today is the first time this year I've seen a big market rout while gold held its own.

Check this yourself if you want. Up until now, gold was getting pulled down every time there were selloffs in the general market. This indicated gold was considered a generic asset class that people sold for cash when they needed to cover their margin calls. Also we tended to see USD spikes with market selloffs.

Not today today my friends. Market sentiment is changing slowly folks. It takes a while for the spindoctoring bu11sh1t from FED talking heads to wear thin and for people to realize there aint nothing in the piggy bank but hot air.

Anonymous said...

Real estate has not recovered from its valuation bubble, but since location is key to its valuation, there could be some buys somewhere.


uhmmmm, where would that be? Mars?

Anonymous said...

It takes a while for the spindoctoring bu11sh1t from FED talking heads to wear thin and for people to realize there aint nothing in the piggy bank but hot air.
_________________


That is soooo true

Peter T said...

America doesn't produce enough in relation to other countries as it consumes. The natural consequence is a falling dollar: Americans can consume less, and production (export) gets rewarded better. Produce more, consume less!

Peter T said...

To oil prices as function of supply and demand: Demand from America will shrink, but demand from other countries might not, it might just slow its increase. Supply will probably shrink due to peak-oil. The consequence: Oil prices won't go down to 30 USD anymore.

Anonymous said...

I dunno, ask all the hicks in America and the white trash and the crack heads.

dont forget the putos from south of the border

Anonymous said...

anon said "I definitely look for a RIF in DOD post conflict and also the elimination of alot of gov't contractor positions (i.e. ..."

me thinks if McCain gets elected there ain't gonna be no "post conflict" period.

Macaca

Anonymous said...

batman said...
Today is the first time this year I've seen a big market rout while gold held its own.


yes, i noticed this, too, and hope it continues! hopefully the MSM brainwashing stranglehold'd negative effects on SRS and SKF will continue to weaken.

Macaca