February 10, 2008

And now we have WheatPANIC!!!!


Who would have ever thought. And remember when we said "DBA" at $28? Look where it is now... Maybe consumable commodities ARE the next bubble after all..

Word to the wise - go stock up on hamburger buns and cornflakes ASAP!!!

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Expanded daily trading limits and sharply higher margin requirements to trade soaring U.S. wheat futures have changed the game and left traders wondering how the market will react.

"It is a very big deal," said Vic Lespinasse, a veteran grain market analyst for Illinois Grain, a brokerage house. "I do not know what is going to happen."

"There is a good chance on Monday that we will probably trade limit up again," said Markus Groebner, a wheat options trader at the Kansas City Board of Trade. "I just hope that we use it as a hedging tool and not as a financial toy."

To cool speculative frenzy, the exchanges have also set sharply higher margin requirements -- good faith deposits paid to hold futures positions -- for wheat traders. Costlier margins often cast a bearish tone on markets, Lespinasse said.

41 comments:

michael said...

i do not quite get the notion that the next bubble will be in commodoties or precious metals.

during the dot.com bubble everyone i knew was not only investing in the companies but many of my friends had jobs in the tech industry. the exact same thing happened with the housing bubble.

shouldn't increased jobs in the sector be a component of a bubble as well as investment?

just wondering yalls thoughts.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

This is a no-brainer since the global warming crackpots in Congress are really pushing the alcohol thing.

Anonymous said...

Now that the family farmer has been eliminated, its time for a bull market in wheat!

I'm sure adm is loving it ....

keith said...

Its not like people eat much wheat or use much oil or drink much milk

How will the government hide this inflation data?

Deflation in assets, inflation in consumables. That's what it feels like HP'ers.

shakster said...

In the Dot com bust,and 2 days after 911,bush sent ADM 14billion dollars under the guise of emergency funding due to the Terrorist crisis. ADM,Monsanto etc.They all suck shit.Get this thru your skulls.There isn't any shortage of crude,wheat,rice,beans,gasoline,or anything else.There are,however,dicks that love to have the world convinced that there are shortages,or cause artificial shortages(trade war,and plain ole war)to runnup prices,profit etc.
My point is pretty much meaningless,because either way,natural or manmade,we're fuckkkt.So fukit,just be happy about something,and break their rules.BTW- Mary Lou Retton-I was happy about that.

NathanBedfordForrest said...

By the time the commodity supercycle is up, we will all be drinking dog piss out of rusting hubcaps.

Ate-Up said...

Serious post on my part. I am an attorney. We have a distinction between "malum in se" and "mala prohibita" Fancy (latin) way of saying inherent/codified evil.

I agree with shakster. All f___bets off. Mala this bitch.

Anonymous said...

Even if there's no shortage of food and energy, why shold they trade in their valuables for paper? Anyway, there really are food shortages in many parts of the world. Just because the shelves at WalMart are stocked does not mean the shelves in China and India are stocked. Your local WalMart is not the center of the commodities universe.

Anonymous said...

Once again, i think the problem is that there is too much money around. It simply moves from one hot market to another. As long as there´s so much money (real or not) there will always be manias and bubbles.
And most of this money is used in a non productive or sustained way. It´s just arbitrage...

Amtex said...

Yeah, those darn global warming crackpots! We should ignore any scientist who studies the data and concludes we need to pay attention to it. Any scientist who shows satellite images of the polar icecaps to prove they melted in the past 30 years more than one could imagine must be a crack pot.

The only scientists who should be believed are the ones hired by big oil. Big oil won't steer us wrong!!

If Al Gore said hitting your thumb with a hammer would hurt, he must have an agenda....hit away folks...Limbaugh and big oil says it won't hurt a but!

Okay, sarcasm off...but wow, why average joes would want to risk their kid's futures on the word of big oil sponsored hack scientist and big oil sponsored politicians is beyond me. If the global warming people are wrong, at least we get cleaner air....and green companies make billions instead of oil companies...so who cares. If the anti-warming people are wrong...our grandkids have no future.

Geez, why the hell would you take that gamble?

And the ethanol game is just that, a game. It is not a viable source of alternate energy. This is merely big business getting richer, and has zero to do with global warming.

When companies pushing solar, wind, hydrogen, algae fuel start getting rich and getting huge supporters in Congress...then we have turned the corner toward sanity. These are new industries....big oil and big wheat are corrupt age old industries.

I'll take a few corrupt Congressmen taking lobby money from these new industries...at least in exchange we say F U to the middle east and big oil.

Anonymous said...

a deceptively engineered ploy by the United States to pump billions of dollars into their failing banking system as nearly half of Americans (currently staggering under a record $2.5 trillion in personal debt), in a new poll conducted by International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities, have stated they will use these checks to pay off creditors.

An American economist, Peter Morici from the University of Maryland, has also noted the odd ‘coincidence’ that the amount of monies under this new law equal the massive losses incurred by US banks from their loan debacles, and as he states:

“It’s a good thing [US stimulus package] , but it’s not enough to head off recession. We’re talking about $150 billion, so this roughly offsets what the banks have lost” in soured housing investments."

pwnd said...

there is 10 cents of wheat in a box of Wheaties.

NO MORE CLINTONS said...

Your local WalMart is not the center of the commodities universe....

Walmart IS the center of the all the Universe in my town...What you talking bout Willis?

Anonymous said...

Don't forget that foreigners are getting a discount on the food we are shipping overseas because of the weak dollar.

How do you like the guy next to you at the supermarket getting a big discount while you pay full price? That's what's happening.

Anonymous said...

For quite some time, iTulip has been saying gold and commodities will take off after the housing bubble - as per Keith's comment upstream. The site goes to some lengths to explain. Part of what's going on is we've never had this particular set of circumstances, so there are probably some never-before-seen states of equilibrium, if I can apply a physics analogy.

satan said...

LA Times

Realtor blogs help reel in clients, boost sales
Informational or gossipy, agents say sites give them an edge.

By Ann Brenoff, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
February 10, 2008

Dust-ups between the bubble bloggers and the real estate industry bloggers are frequent, and disputes fall along predictable lines: Agents put a more positive spin on the market; bubble bloggers predict economic catastrophe. The two groups distrust each other, and some bloggers claim to fear repercussions from the other side. Few would disagree that bubble bloggers are angry victors whose "I told you so" message is often delivered with a cyber finger-poke in the chest.

The loudest bubble blog, by most accounts, is HousingPANIC, run by someone who wants to be identified only as Keith, who says he sold his home in Phoenix, which he described as "housing bubble central," in 2006 and moved to London. He has since left London "to travel the road."

The Narrator said...

Time to bulldoze all those vacant McMansinos and grow wheat!

Roccman said...

surprise surprise...

7 billion useless eaters all wanting more more more.

Enjoy the die off!!!!

Anonymous said...

Same thing happened in 1929. It will all come crashing down when the banks have to fess up.

Good luck investors. Cash is still king!

Bitterrenter said...

Wait until the capitalists get a stranglehold on water. Most pay around $10 a month. Get ready for $200 a month.

And you'll pay it.

All Hail the Magic of Capitalism! ENJOY!

tangelo mozilo said...

I predict widespread margarine buying in the commodities markets.

The good doctor said...

"I just hope that we use it as a hedging tool and not as a financial toy."


I think we're in trouble...

Food too costly? cannibalism is the new trend. Just imagine reading the newspaper one morning.. "I killed my realtwhore and then ate her liver with an amusing little chianti.."

Anonymous said...

gosh Frank, is there anything you won't reflexively blame on liberals? This one is a pretty big stretch. How about a link to an actual policy or legislation that the evil global warming conspiracy has enacted which directly or indirectly caused this bubble?

Anonymous said...

Given how the geeks that compute inflation stats like to substitute non-rising items for items that go up in price, maybe they'll make the assumption that consumers will switch their diets from rising wheat and meat and begin consuming high-definition TV's for dinner. That should give them the statistics they need to tell us all that food prices aren't rising.

/sarcasm off

Anonymous said...

gosh Frank, is there anything you won't reflexively blame on liberals? This one is a pretty big stretch. How about a link to an actual policy or legislation that the evil global warming conspiracy has enacted which directly or indirectly caused this bubble?

JaneZinfandel said...

Bitterrenter said...

Wait until the capitalists get a stranglehold on water. Most pay around $10 a month. Get ready for $200 a month.

And you'll pay it.

All Hail the Magic of Capitalism! ENJOY!

It is already happening in El Savador:

“Because we were struggling against the privatization of water. Now we have to struggle against the anti-terrorism law.”
- Vincente Vasquez-

http://tinyurl.com/2kly4b

The “Suchitoto 13,” as the defendants are known, were initially charged with public disorder, but Attorney General Garrid Safie quickly upped the charges to “terrorism” under the country’s “Decree 108: The Special Law Against Acts of Terrorism” enacted in 2006. (modeled after the U.S. Patriot Act) Judge Fuentes de Paz ordered the Suchitoto 13 to be held for three month in preventative detention to allow the prosecutor time to gather evidence supporting the charge of terrorism.


At least the El Salvadorans have the goddamn sense to protest what will probably be the theft of their water to be sold back to them at 10 times the price.

And while the El Salvadorans fight for their water we have this in America:

Anonymous said...

Sooner or later the American Dollar will bounce back up. It has to. It is the reserve currency of the world. We are a shining city on top of a hill that the world looks to for leadership and during these troubling economic times the world will look to America for leadership and guidance and as usual America will faithfully deliver.

Gag me with a spoon.

Anonymous said...

Duh -- supply and demand -- The Chinese are eating more bread and noodles. Of course deflationists in this blog will argue that there is no price inflation, just manipulation or some dark conspiracy.

All consumables are increasing in price because the supply is limited and demand is increasing. And you global warming nut cases need to try a different mantra because the old one doesn't make sense for agriculture. More CO2 and warming climates means more food, not less, dumb asses.

Anonymous said...

We should let the socialists handle farming like North Korea where they're starving to death. How about China when they had 20 million people starve to death in 1969? Those socialists are great farmers.

Look at all the fat slobs in America. Then you idiots are complaining that we're going to go hungry because of food prices? Maybe you need to stop stuffing your fat faces for a few days.

Anonymous said...

First, it was Iraq that caused banks to make bad loans.

Now it's global warming, during one of the coldest winters in decades, that's causing wheat and corn prices to go up?

Americans are the most myopic creatures in the world. Nevermind that the Chinese and Indians are making more money, therefore eating more food. It's only 2.5 billion people consuming more food and energy. Hell, nobody exists except Americans. We live in a vaccuum. Our food and energy supply aren't affected by the rest of the world's consumption levels. Big oil is responsible for food prices. We should shut down Exxon and Chevron. We'll get our oil from Saudi Aramco and Putin. I'm sure they will treat us much better.

Sarcasm off for you liberal retards.

Anonymous said...

You can rent a home, but you can't rent food. What most of you ignorant self-centered Americans don't realize is that there are riots in developing nations due to food and fuel shortages. They need to buy more food and fuel, which means demand is going up while supply is going down due to those idiots pushing biofuels. You go to WalMart and see shelves full of food. You go to the gas station and the pumps always work. How could there be a shortage?

BTW - Fuel is $8/gal in Europe with their BP Amoco, Total Fina, Statoil and other quasi-government oil companies. I guess that's also Exxon's fault. Food is much more expensive in Europe. That must also be Exxon's fault.

Andrew Hac said...

What will it take to restore the Americano nation AKA the land of the Snapper Turtle to its former prosperity and security ?

Probably not in Dubya's lifetime.

The correction will have to be severe and painful. Joe6Pack + JaneZinfandel will have to lose at least 100 pounds each in their filthy bodily fat, retrain in their hoggy food consumption habit and practice restraint in their hog-fun reproductive orgy. Can it be done ? Yes, but bitterly and painfully the exercise will be.

And if there is even little shred of Dubya's worshipping residing in Joe6Pack's + JaneZinfandel's donkey brain, then all bets are off.

Why ? The simple equation next will prove that the Americano is as toasted as a snapper turtle skewered on a stick sizzling nicely on a bed of red hot charcoal as long as Dubya is still sitting in the John's Throne.

BUSHY = Real-Public-Cuunnt
javascript:void(0)
Publish Your Comment
So, are we roasted yet ? Is it done nicely already ?

JaneZinfandel said...

Anonymous said...

And you global warming nut cases need to try a different mantra because the old one doesn't make sense for agriculture. More CO2 and warming climates means more food, not less, dumb asses.

More CO2, warming climates means less water. Water necessary to grow food? Check.

Anonymous said...

and i thought the gas we have been getting for years was methaneol already distil;led and fermented from sewer waste water and the 3.00 a gallon cost...highway robbery.....will you get angry with the stimilus package offered to the bribe givers when you are foced to replace your television soon and be forced to go digital and spend that money buying foreign made goods as you buy a replacement of your disabled tv......

Anonymous said...

i think the el salvadorians have isolated the two problems

Anonymous said...

better isolate the rapid growth and giganticism genes for the foods supply, as being a food "purist" takes a different meaning when your hungry

Anonymous said...

and

Anonymous said...

read the great chicken waste powered automobile at liberty forum .org and if you can find it

Anonymous said...

Grandma pkk here--

I think it's in Revelations: a measure of wheat for a day's wages.

As they say in East Africa:
Pole!Pole!(sorry!sorry!)

Anonymous said...

Remember that game PIT? Looks like it is becoming very real. Get the Bull and Bear cards out were gonna corner the market on WHEAT! I got two, two, two...

Anonymous said...

It's hard red winter wheat that soared in price. Why? Not enough winter in the US, and too much winter in China.

GonnaCornHoleYa said...

AndrewHac, you are entertaining. I agree, JoeSixPack is a limp-wristed fairy, who giggles like a schoolgirl at stupid jokes, and only cares about the Lakers and the Sports page and watches every idiotic mainstream Adam Sandler movie. Total morons.