January 21, 2008

Stocks getting slammed around the world today (thanks to the US housing panic). Predictions for the US stock market?


Plunge Protection Team and the Fed ride to the rescue Tuesday, or is it time to just stand back and get out of the way?

You know, no matter what it saddens me that the United States lost control of its financial markets. If people can't have confidence in the balance sheets and unbiased auditing of US companies, where can they?

Shame on the Fed and SEC for allowing companies to cook the books and obscure the truth to the extent that they did. And for gods sake, go arrest someone so we can at least make it look like we're on the case!

And for those who though stocks were liquid because you could just hit the "sell" button and be done with it, how was your trading today? Bit frustrated eh?

European, Asian Markets Plunge Amid Pessimism Over US Stimulus Plan

LONDON (AP) -- European and Asian stock markets plunged Monday following declines on Wall Street last week amid investor pessimism over the U.S. government's stimulus plan to prevent a recession.

The U.K. benchmark FTSE-100 dropped 3.9 percent to 5,673.1; France's CAC-40 Index plunged 4.5 percent to 4,861.2, while Germany's slumped 5.35 percent to 6,922.7.

In Asia, India's benchmark stock index tumbled 7.4 percent, while Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5 percent to 23,818.86, its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

131 comments:

Anonymous said...

When Wall Street re-opens on Tuesday it could be interesting. No way do the dividens on stocks justify their prices. I will wait until Dow Jones gets back down to 1300 before buying any stocks.

Anonymous said...

PPT and Ben Bernanke to the rescue tomorrow...huge rally coming. The game is rigged, we all know it, might as well profit from it.

Anonymous said...

Predictions is easy even if the exchange is closed today. Just look at the futures market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

This is just the beginning. A LOT of people have been borrowing money to invest and now the margin calls will eat them alive. This is 1929 all over again.

Anonymous said...

Ben will issue an emergency rate cut before the US exchange opens. This has
all been planed, the destruction of the US dollar and our nation.

01/20/2009 end of an error. said...

Guys I think you will get a kick out of this. I was up puking all night and decided about 4am to turn on Bloomberg. The little overnight bubble headed bleach blond was handing over the desk to Julie Hyman. She kind of sarcastically said to Julie bad market today I guess except for you since you are short the market. I thought Hyman was a brainless cheerleader but I guess she has some brains up three after all.

Oh 365 days till the biggest party in history.

Anonymous said...

Tuesday, hmmm...yes, it appears. The BBC news article has reported "PANIC STAGE" has begun.
Why don't those credit card companies lower their interest rate that they charge customers? How about those stubborn homeowners who still think their properties are worth 2004 prices? They have not been cured.
GREED.
This is what is going to plunge our economy in America. Punishment for GREED.
Countrywide rep the other day told me..he expects a deep recession but now thinks depression is a strong possibility. Reason? Junk bonds are coming due to reveal they have no money. Corporate type. Also,we know about City bond insurance agencies have no money. and now, as reported from Europe...confidence in BANKS has eroded.
Anyone hear from DOPES? I think he is the Great Pumpkin. Only shows up when there is "nothing but sincerity as far as the eye can see"

westwest888 said...

Black Monday and the markets are closed. Lucky us.

http://tinyurl.com/27avmb

"[Futures] contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 482 points lower to 11,624"

"S&P 500 futures fell 55 points to 1,270.10 and the Nasdaq 100 futures lost 72.25 points to 1,777.25."

Anonymous said...

tuesday could be bad. IF bernake doesn't announce an interim rate cut between Monday afternoon and first thing tuesday morning.
dow could drop 500, SP 75, Nasdaq 75

then it will rolling down from there. Remember "counter-party" risk and the fact that the derivatives were made to hedge against risk.
risk explodes, assets gotta be liquidated

Anonymous said...

The government might as well monetize all the bad debt. We're already $9T in debt. Just throw another $2T on top of it. We're never going to pay it off anyways. A bunch of inflation is better than a bunch of unemployment.

Paul E. Math said...

Paulsen and his ppt will never throw in the towel. But they may play possum for a bit.

Financial markets may be allowed to slide a little further so that Bernanke is sure to lower the overnight rate by at least 50 basis points.

Or else the ppt will make sure the financial markets in the US will open higher by maybe 50 or 100 points on the Dow. CNBC will proclaim a massive rally and pronounce the end of the slump. However, any rally will be short-lived with the S&P 500 being down by at least 1% by noon. After sliding 2 - 3 % below friday's close, sometime between 3pm and 4pm EST, there will be a classic ppt-style spike of recovery but not enough to put any of the us markets back into positive territory.

Have you noticed that almost everyday there is a spike up between 3 and 4 pm? Why is that?

Anonymous said...

Even the Fed can't stop it this time. This is the big one...

Afterthought said...

Asking the Feds and SEC to regulate corporate book-cooking is asking the fox to regulate the hen house.

Anonymous said...

Death. Pain. Fear and Loathing.

Pick one...

Wait until Tuesday in US...

tick, tick, tick, Ka BOOOOOM!!!!

Malcolm said...

I also think that people will get a hard lesson of “the law of unintended consequences.”

For as long as I can remember, there have been those people who have been chanting “death to America”.

Little do they know that if they ever got what they want, they would be signing their own death warrant.

The world economy is so intertwined, and so dependant on the US economy, that whatever mess we are in are (we’ll know tomorrow), it will have long-term effects on nearly every point on the globe.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Futures point to a 400 point drop in the DOW on tuesday. Time to make some popcorn and strap on a Depends.
The only bright spot in the news is that as the two biggest bond insurers are about to go under, Warren Buffet is stepping in with a new company which is rated AAA and is ready to take all their business. It's great to see an honest guy, who never got greedy, come out on top. Too bad he never ran for president.

Anonymous said...

But Keith, I thought things were "oversold"!? That's what you told us last week.

Man_of_war said...

OMG look !!!!
FUTURES
DJIA INDEX 11,592.00 -514.00

Anonymous said...

Is the dow currently down 520 points? If it is, I think I have already spent my $800 govt. check. When will Jorge send the next check?

james said...

Dow 1300? THat seems a little nuts. I'm thinking the time to start thinking bout buying back in is around dow 9000. Why 1300?

Anonymous said...

I think either we get an emergency 1% rate cut, or its 1929. Not 1987. 1929. The big question is, are they stupid and incompetent, or crafty? Clearly, you couldn't have a cut with oil knocking at 100$. So now, they have an excuse, and the dollar has strengthened, oil come down etc. Now they can cut? Or are they stupid?

michael said...

could this be "the big one"?

hmmm...i'm getting a little scared.

k.w. - southern, ca. said...

4 words ... it will all collapse.

NC lady said...

I keep hearing from the experts that we should be investing in the global markets. Well, I guess the disease is spreading. Now what? and they said that the sub-prime mess wouldn't effect our economy. It was under control, no spill over to the credit markets. All these experts need to take a stroll down main street, USA and just ask a few people that really feels what is going on in the economy and stop listening to so many of these so called financial experts. Sure, we should be saving, but check the buying power of that dollar you just saved and see how much it's really worth. I have a lot of questions,but I really just wish I had a few answers to this mess.

John K. said...

The PPT will be juicing the market with everything they've got. Expect to see a higher opening, but then the pent up selling pressure will overwhelm the PPT and down she will go. Black Tuesday will be remembered as the beginning of the crash of '08.

Expect the Feds to close the market early to limit the damage.

jimmydoomsday said...

http://jimmydoomsday.blogspot.com/2008/01/panic-time-is-near.html

Marky Mark said...

How is this for Tuesday

Oil down sharply
Gold down sharply
The dollar UP sharply

Marky Mark

Anonymous said...

I'm confused. Why haven't the foreigners hit the switch and decoupled from us, as all the experts predicted would happen?

Anonymous said...

HOLY MOLY ! dow futures down 542!!

Damn

Damn

542 !!!!!!!

andymiami said...

and to think that all this was created by increases in housing prices fueled by the credit bubble..who would have ever thought..

Anonymous said...

"Its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, fake terror attacks."

BOOM!!!!!!!

Scientic proof, documented evidence and hundreds of witnesses conclude that dozens of US government officials, agents and employees were involved in the original planning (and cover-up)of the said fake attacks on 9/11/01.

All US citizens and government employees shall turn their heads from the 9/11 truth, our falling economy, loss of rights and not ask questions.

Now go watch American Idle, make your mortgage payment on your overpriced house and shut the f*ck up.

Signed, GW Bush and your local elected representatives.

r said...

I saw the blockbuster hit Cloverfield after getting home i went to sleep and had a dream I was in the movie. The someone said what the hell is that monster destroying the buildings and I said it's Suprime. lol Great dream !!!


It's a great illustration for the lay person to understand the magnitude of the housing crisis. New York being the world

What would you name the monster in Cloverfield to reflect what's gong on?

Anonymous said...

The mestizos will be fleeing back to Mexico with their $800 checks and GMC trucks bought on credit. Good luck getting them repo'd

Anonymous said...

In the end, we are all dead

bush tin-foil hat club, read this said...

"It is no longer a question of avoiding recession in the U.S. any more. It is a case of damage limitation, because the damage has already been done," said Andrew Clarke, a sales trader at SG Securities in Hong Kong. 1/21/08

wordyeti said...

To quote "Watchmen":

MMMMMMMMmmmeltdown!

Today will be a moderate decline - probably 1-2%. But that will lead to further declines internationally - which will panic the investors who hoped to "ride things out." Starting Tuesday, and building steam for the rest of the week, investors will become increasingly unglued, yanking their money out of the market, driving the DJIA down about 200-400 points a day. At the end of the week, we'll have seen another 10-15% decline in aggregate value.

Anonymous said...

Wow, I should have been paying attention to this blog...Please help me re-pick the investment options for my 401k...here they are...

Davis New York Venture Fund (A)
RVS Large Cap Equity Fund Class R4
RVST Equity Index Fund I
Neuberger Berman Genesis Trust
Capital World Growth and Income R-4 #
ManningNapier Ret Target Incm Trust
ManningNapier Ret Target 2010 Trust
ManningNapier Ret Target 2020 Trust
ManningNapier Ret Target 2030 Trust
RVS Balanced Fund Class R4
ManningNapier Ret Target 2040 Trust
PIMCO Total Return Fund (Admin)
Income Fund
Dover Stock Account
Hurricane Katrina Loan Fund
The Growth Fund Of America (R-4) #
Pacific Capital Small Cap Y
Hartford Small Company HLS Fd (IA)
Northern Trust Small Cap Value
Wachovia Dis Intl Core Equity K

Pimco seams to be the safest but I really have no clue...please help me figure out where my money should be currently...Best regards

I need a rebate check today for bills said...

F@ck it, I'm going to walmart to buy something.Where the F@ck is my rebate check? I need underwear and socks.the kids need new toys and other stuff.Bush is a crooked sob who lied to the american people again.

IPL said...

FTSE -5.48%, Dow futures -4.43%, S+P -4.76%, Nasdaq -4.29%.

Yikes.

Anonymous said...

TSE (Toronto) was down over 5% now only down 4% and cimbing. This is probably the best barometer of what will happen in the US tomorrow.

Nasty, not the end of the wold. DOW was down 4.5% one day last Feb after China fell 9% the previous night.

Then after all the talking head morons were declaring the end of the world, the dow shot up 2000 over the next 3 months.

Whoever said dow 1300....please get back on the meds, for your safety and those around you.

cobra2411 said...

Kinda sucks for those people that thought it was a good idea to buy the dips... Can you imagine how it must feel to see the market tanking and you can't do a thing about it???

If they haven't taped out their 401k's and IRA's, being long this market will surely wipe them out.

Good thing social security is there... HA!

Got puts???? I do... :P

acrid stench of fear said...

It is also the worst start to the year for the stock market since records began in 1936.

"I smell the acrid stench of fear and uncertainty," said markets commentator David Buik of BGC Partners.

andy in nz said...

"I'm confused. Why haven't the foreigners hit the switch and decoupled from us, as all the experts predicted would happen?

January 21, 2008 6:32 PM"

we tried, but or nible selves have overtaken the US lumbering giant, you just may be the last car in the pile up! its different this time!

DOPES said...

DOPES!!!

I'VE GOT FOX BUSINESS NEWS ON RIGHT NOW...

YOU PEOPLE HAVE NO FREAKING CLUE HOW STUPID YOU ARE!!!

FOX IS SPREADING THE TRUTH AS WE SPEAK...

THEY SAY BEN IS WORKING UP HIS EMERGENCY RATE CUT SPEECH AND IS READY TO GO LIVE AS NEEDED...

AND IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN...

FOX SAYS THIS CRASH IS REALLY GOOD FOR ME!!!!

FOX SAYS I'LL BE BUYING STOCKS ON SALE THAT I'VE JUST LOST MONEY ON...

YOU DOPES!!!

I WIN AGAIN!!!

Anonymous said...

The world markets will go down hand-in-hand. After the crash, the world will recover, but the US recovery will lag severely due to the bad debt and mistrust. That is when the world will decouple from the US. They will finally realize that we are a deadbeat nation of spoiled brats that doesn't pay its bills. Who will fund our socialized healthcare then? Who will fund our military to be in 48 different countries? Who will fund social security and medicare? Who will fund our foreign aid to Israel, Arabs, Africa and Asia? Those will all be things of the past, and good riddance. If they can't fund welfare, you had better watch out, because there are three generations of people who have never had a job before and have absolutely no skills or desire to work.

Ben Franklin said...

The mestizos will be fleeing back to Mexico with their $800 checks and GMC trucks bought on credit. Good luck getting them repo'd

Funny you mention it, as the article below explains how many big funds (e.g. CalPERS) are investing in a boom in Mexican real estate!

http://tinyurl.com/3xwyjs

Hard to see how this CAN'T end badly, although they have the benefit of seeing what happens when a credit bubble runs amok!

Keith, surprised you haven't picked up on this one.

Anonymous said...

To Quote an old song by Steppenwolf:
America, where are you now?
Don't you care about your sons and daughters?
Don't you know, we need you now?
We can't fight alone against the MONSTER.


(Tuesday, named after the god TIU, a Teutonic name for their interpretation of the Roman god MARS)
The day of MARS , Tuesday, January 22, 2008

MrBill said...

It's nice to be on the sideline this time eating popcorn, not like in 2001 yikes! Oh well, the amount of my money in the market back then was chicken feed anyway.

But hey! I still want my $1600 from the gubmint! It will pay off the new plasma TV I just bought in time for another Pats superbowl victory! (zero interest, dont yell at me!)

Anonymous said...

Rate cut before market open. Futures reduce their loss by 1/3.

By around 1 in the afternoon, the water fall starts all over again.

Vix spikes to 40.

Series of down gaps for the next 4 days each getting worse.

Gold and commodities collapse. Dollar has massive rally.

Vix then cools and market trades flat for next 5 years.

Anonymous said...

According to snake-oil salesman Cramer, this crisis is Gisele's and Cuomo's fault.

Anonymous said...

Yep the crooks at PPT will make this market positive tomorrow.

After all, it's all rigged!

But good luck with the next shoe to drop, the bond insurers.

"The Road To Hell" said...

This is "The Road To Hell"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=060hM-JVClg&feature=related

Anonymous said...

Shame on the Fed and SEC for allowing companies to cook the books and obscure the truth to the extent that they did. And for gods sake, go arrest someone so we can at least make it look like we're on the case!

You guys gotta make up your minds. On the one hand you want Ron Paul to apply a libertarian hands-free approach to the system, but on the other hand you're demanding more regulation.

What kind of Republicans are you that now love more regulation? Funny how that works...kind of confused here. So let the spin begin with excuses and smoke & mirrors to justify your positions. God forbid if you seem wrong and contradictory. After all, you Republicans are perfect breed who own the truth, above all. You guys are never wrong, even voting for Bush/Cheney twice. I didn't vote for Bush/Cheney twice and saw what it was coming after they got elected, but hey...you guys are the hot sh!t, so pardon me.

keith said...

It's nearly 5pm on the East Coast and Bernanke hasn't cut 100 bps yet

I'm shocked

What's he waiting for?

If he doesn't cut tonight tomorrow will be interesting to say the least

Got popcorn?

corvinus said...

WHERE'S DOPES??

borkafatty said...

Futures down over -500..I don think even the PPT can hide that one.

Anonymous said...

anon 9:23 post of the day

borkafatty said...

The government might as well monetize all the bad debt. We're already $9T in debt. Just throw another $2T on top of it. We're never going to pay it off anyways. A bunch of inflation is better than a bunch of unemployment.

----------

You know, in a no kidding kind of way I agree with you.

Anonymous said...

Can hardly wait for the State of the Union address!

"Today, the once proud W meekly approached the lectern. Then shockingly began flinging his feces about. A stunned nation then came to the realization it has been horribly misled."

Markus Arelius said...

I just saw a pink bumper sticker on a realtor's SUV here in OC California that says "Too pretty to pay for champagne!".

What in the hell is that supposed to mean?

Anonymous said...

OMG!

mrbill = DOPES!!!!!!!!!!!

Hahahhahahahahah

HE NEVER LEFT!!!!!!!!!!

Mitesh Damania said...

"BLACK MONDAY" on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr's birthday.

hotbod said...

I just saw a pink bumper sticker on a realtor's SUV here in OC California that says "Too pretty to pay for champagne!".

What in the hell is that supposed to mean?


it means that the woman thinks she's so special (a princess) that she only has time for the noblest of men!

Anonymous said...

Bernanke better cut now, because if he doesn't the whole house of cards is coming down. If it does come down, your saved pennies won't save you. We will be looking at almost immediate depression, followed by anarchy in heavily armed country.

See Katrina

Anonymous said...

I just saw a pink bumper sticker on a realtor's SUV here in OC California that says "Too pretty to pay for champagne!".

What in the hell is that supposed to mean?


It means she very well knows how stupid men are, they purchase human beings who pretend to love them, and she is for sale.

Dungkin dognuts said...

"Too pretty to pay for champagne"

That means she's/he's just using the empty bottle for something
else. Trying to stretch those muscles for whoever pops the cork.

Anonymous said...

There will be no interest rate cut. Helicopter's hands are tied by inflation. He knows it. If he continues to cut rates he only prolongs an inevitable recession even worse than what we are already in.

The banks and brokers have enough cash to lend. Goldman Sachs has enough cash to pump the DOW back up to 13,000 but they would never risk this with the global markets in correction and bear mode. Banks and brokers are hording because they don't know their own future needs.

The stock market and bond market know this and are reacting accordingly.

I am short but even shorts can be risky because they are only a hedge against current trading conditions.

If you are short be sure to have a sale price ready to go.

Good luck everyone!

Anonymous said...

I just saw a pink bumper sticker on a realtor's SUV here in OC California that says "Too pretty to pay for champagne!".

What in the hell is that supposed to mean?


It means that the driver is a slut with huge cans who preys on idiots.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bernanke, let's burn this motherf*cker down tomorrow to show to the entire world that Reaganomics is as sh!tty as Reagan was.

Anonymous said...

brokersleaveyoubroke d...
The only bright spot in the news is that as the two biggest bond insurers are about to go under, Warren Buffet is stepping in with a new company which is rated AAA and is ready to take all their business. It's great to see an honest guy, who never got greedy, come out on top. Too bad he never ran for president
___________________________________
I got news for you. Buffett is just as big a pig at the government trough as Dubya or Kenny Boy Lay. He just hasn't been handed his comeuppence yet.

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/2xr5xh

mish says asia is recoupling...

i think this is the problem i have with peter schiff. how is it going to do anyone any good by investing in foreign areas if it is a fact that when the united states sneezes the world catches a cold. jim rogers says to invest in china. why? china is going in the toilet when the american sheep quit buying the chinese junk so i would deduce that this will not be good for investments in china at least for the foreseeable future and that doesn't include the social unrest that could happen there as a result of unemployment....

DOPES said...

DOPES!!!

FOX BUSINESS NEWS HAS BEN IN THE MAKEUP ROOM!!!

HE'S COMING BOYS!!!

YOU'RE SHORTS ARE GONNA GET CREAMED!!!

I WIN AGAIN!!!

Anonymous said...

Newbie here, Whats the futures market? how do they know the numbers are before the market opens tomorrow? Be nice please.

cobra2411 said...

http://highprobability.blogspot.com

OUCH!

Anonymous said...

Unregulated free markets always fail in this manner. We should have known better, but the American people were too dumb to look beyond two decades of right wing conserva-babble in the corporate owned media.

Anonymous said...

You guys gotta make up your minds. On the one hand you want Ron Paul to apply a libertarian hands-free approach to the system, but on the other hand you're demanding more regulation.


Libertarian does not mean lawless, you ignorant socialist imbecile. The system today is not free market at all. It is a mixture of capitalism and socialism contrally controlled by The Fed.

Ron said...

Learn to swim people, have a plan and I don't mean where to put your money.

"contained"

Anonymous said...

Australia is getting SLAMMED right now!

Cant wait till the US market opens!!

Stockmarket ruined my life

http://tinyurl.com/ypr9nu

LOL

Anonymous said...

We have entered an inflationary depression. They won't let this
market crash or it will spell the
end of the FED and IRS.
They will keep the balls in the air
we are a debt based economy, buy or die.

Gold Down, Euro Down, Dollar down, Yen up.

Anonymous said...

I just saw a pink bumper sticker on a realtor's SUV here in OC California that says "Too pretty to pay for champagne!".

What in the hell is that supposed to mean?


Like other posters said, it means the driver of that particular vehicle has figured out that a large percentage of the male population are total morons who will pay through the nose to be in the company of a woman who bleaches her hair and stuffs her chest full of silicone.

Princess Mononoke said...

What would you name the monster in Cloverfield to reflect what's gong on?
January 21, 2008 6:48 PM
==============

The GREAT Godzilla!

sandman said...

Keith,

Had a question. Who is Mike Norman (I saw the idiot with Schiff on some clips). But man this guy is a MORON - I saw an interview tonight. he is just stupid. I could pivk a random person off the streets of Dorchester and they would be more intellingent.

Why do they let him on TV? Does he have ANY claim to fame.

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Peter Schiff and his decoupling bull$hit thesis looks really silly right now. Kind of like housing prices only go up.

Hmmm still idiots on CNBC World believing the rest of the world marches on with no problems despite a deep US recession.

Bear markets kill CNBCs ratings. Good for those bastards.

deepcgi said...

Deflation or hyperinflation? Would someone explain this to me simply? I know brilliant economic minds disagree fundamentally on this, and therefore, I am confused. I personally believe that the US dollar can eternally lose half of its value day-by-day. I also recognize that the world banks are writing off their bad debt much faster than I would have guessed, still, massive credit contraction seems inevitable as the real estate market crashes so slowly no one can predict the trains final resting place. Would gold drop in a deflationary spiral? Would gold rise? Why? Keep it simple.

Princess Mononoke said...

The Day of Reckoning is upon us people... Tomorrow does NOT look good. Woooowwww! This is ALL way to surreal for me. Better buckle up, strap yourself in! We are in for a ride of a lifetime.

Anonymous said...

lol us shorts? You're down 15% from the peak (DOW), you got pearls all over your face. Let me guess, you bought in at DRYS at $130....AM I RITE!

Anonymous said...

The bumper sticker would translate "loosely" to:

Gobbles For Dollars

Anonymous said...

Good,

A good slowdown on all economies. Enough of China and India, enough with Fossil fuels, enough with sky-high oil prices, enough with Sheiks, Chavez and Iran.

Recession NOW, WELCOME!

Anonymous said...

The world markets will go down hand-in-hand. After the crash, the world will recover, but the US recovery will lag severely due to the bad debt and mistrust. That is when the world will decouple from the US. They will finally realize that we are a deadbeat nation of spoiled brats that doesn't pay its bills. Who will fund our socialized healthcare then? Who will fund our military to be in 48 different countries? Who will fund social security and medicare? Who will fund our foreign aid to Israel, Arabs, Africa and Asia? Those will all be things of the past, and good riddance. If they can't fund welfare, you had better watch out, because there are three generations of people who have never had a job before and have absolutely no skills or desire to work

I fear you are dead on about this. The welfare leaches may have no desire to work, but work they shall, albeit after testing crime to see if it pays first. Scary times ahead.

Anonymous said...

I have cash and plan to buy here at the bottom. Mining and timber companies are on sale cheap.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Check out my Jan Feb 2008 predictions from your archives, Corporate Profits plunging, stock market tumbling, Gold surged, fiscal state of emergency in several states, and most important

Eli Manning leads The New York Giants to the Superbowl against Patriots.

Go Big Blue!!! Go Giants!!!!


Global Deflation is under way!!!

Depression = Decoupling

Silver, Gold and Cash will reign supreme!!!



ICEMAN

LauraVella said...

My guess: the dow will close tomorrow at 11,400...

Anonymous said...

I'm confused. Why haven't the foreigners hit the switch and decoupled from us, as all the experts predicted would happen?

-------------------------------

they can't. What is China going to do, sell cheap stuff to India? to Sudan?

Anonymous said...

Whoever said dow 1300....please get back on the meds, for your safety and those around you.

----------------------------

I think it was DOPES and he left a zero off.

tanker said...

I say the S&P drops 30-40% Peak to trough all told. Tomorrow I see a heavy selloff. We're still only down about 15% from peak, so it isn't the end of the world ...yet.

I was in the stock brokerage business years ago and the old guys didn't even flinch at a 15% drop. They had seen 1987 where we had a 23% drop in one day. So it's not time to panic just yet. These young ones are whimps. For me, I'm staying short the market because I think we still have a long way to go.

anon666 said...

What if they had a global stock market crash and the U.S. forgot to show up? Thank god for MLK day in the U.S.

dave said...

I've been following the housing bubble situation closely and was inspired to write a song. You can see the video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivp4YqGCI-s


Dave

Anonymous said...

I've been following the housing bubble situation closely and was inspired to write a song. You can see the video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivp4YqGCI-s

Anonymous said...

DOPES said...

DOPES!!!

FOX BUSINESS NEWS HAS BEN IN THE MAKEUP ROOM!!!

HE'S COMING BOYS!!!

YOU'RE SHORTS ARE GONNA GET CREAMED!!!

I WIN AGAIN!!!

January 21, 2008 11:05 PM<<<

hey dopes, are you driving over from scottsdale. Just wear a shirt with the letters...DOPES.... on it so we know who you are. also i tell you what partner. you show up over there and i will not only buy you a shemale table dance, i will get you drunk on shirley temples.....

Anonymous said...

DOPES is back!

How much money have you lost? At least 10%. Wait you'll make it up in volume.... :)

Keep gambling (and losing)....

You are s.a.d.

rockysan88 said...

You aholes! Yeah, Fox News caused the housing bubble. You kill me. STUPID mutherf*ckers. No dem or rep is going to fix this. This was caused by plain ol greed and fraud. GET IT? Pull your heads outta yer asses for once.

Anonymous said...

Good bye, Ruby Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

A 100bps cut will have little lasting effect. Unless they announce a gov-guaranteed loan bailout for the monolines it's going to keep going down until the banks go belly up. The problem is not the economy, and it's not the level of interest rates - the problem is that we are within days or weeks of a cascading failure of the entire banking system, one that has been foreseeable and that has been drawing closer and closer with no action by the government.

BondsOfSteel said...

>>What would you name the monster in Cloverfield to reflect what's gong on?

-----------

Mozilo of course!

two cents said...

Circuit breaker.


(ingest a grain of salt - my guess is about as good as the proverbial shoe-shiner).

innocent bystander said...

The PPT has shot its wad!

The market is now at the mercy of the contrarian hedgies.

It did, however, accomplish its mission of propping up select stock prices to allow the some of the biggest players (and not coincidently, Bush family friends)to exit unscathed.

The market is now set up for a fall.

And the fall will usher in the fondest desire of the powers that be -- a new world currency.

stocksystm said...

First stop, Dow 10,500

Another Steppenwolf classic (The Ostrich):

We'll call you when you're six years old,
And drag you to the factory,
To train your brain for eighteen years,
With promise of security,
But then you're free,
And forty years you waste to chase the dollar sign,
So you may die in Florida,
At the pleasant age of sixty nine.

The water's getting hard to drink,
We've mangled up the country side,
The air will choke you when you breathe,
We're all committing suicide,
But it's alright,
It's progress folks keep pushin' till your body rots,
Will strip the earth of all it's green,
And then divide her into parking lots,

But there's nothing you and I can do,
You and I are only two,
What's right and wrong is hard to say,
Forget about it for today,
We'll stick our heads into the sand,
Just pretend that all is grand,
Then hope that everything turns out ok.

You're free to speak your mind my friend,
As long as you agree with me,
Don't criticize the father land,
Or those who shape your destiny,
'Cause if you do,
You'll lose your job, your mind, and all the friends you knew,
We'll send out all our boys in blue,
They'll find a way to silence you.

But there's nothing you and I can do
You and I are only two
What's right and wrong is hard to say
Forget about it for today
We'll stick our heads into the sand
Just pretend that all is grand
Then hope that everything turns out ok

Anonymous said...

MLK not good for the fin world?

ZZwcck said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/62337;_ylt=Aqs2TAltz96xczPEbiW0C8i7YWsA

Just read Ben Stein and he said even if there is a recession which will take a long time to determine the FED will come to the rescue. The only problem up until now has been the unwillingness of the FED to ride to the rescue. Ben Stein has me convinced if I try to compare the BLS data from 65 years ago versus the BLS data today I'll see everything is just fine.

Umm, this be harder than I thought, but once I figure out exactly what effect geometric weighting, hedonistic calculations and birth/death models have on the data I'm sure I'll feel better. Maybe Ben Stein has more information on that, too. Nope, just bunch of other feel good stories...

Oh wait there are a few other differences between now and then that I am aware of like banks couldn't charge 36% interest 65 years ago. I wonder why? Oh, the average mortgage was 10 years and nobody in there right mind would spend 30 years of their life paying for a home? No NINJA loans. Another, the country was still an industrial power with massive amounts of natural resources. Wait, wait, wait... I didn't see Ben mention that anywhere in his article on why recessions shouldn't be feared.

After looking the fluff piece and the evidence against the US I'm going with Ben Stein's piece. Some people, like HP readers, may like to right, but I'd rather be happy and wrong about everything.

Anonymous said...

Geez, it's gettin kinda scary now. Am I the only one who feels a little sad watching the economic collapse of the US?

The banks will have to reassess trillions of dollars in assets when MBIA and Ambac fold. Many will most likely go under.

Our options are stagflation or depression. I vote for stagflation … open up the monetary flood gates Bernanke!

- Chris

Anonymous said...

Does DOPES stand for something?

I feel like I'm missing out on some of the humor here?

Anonymous said...

I'm shocked by all the douche bags who think the dollar will rally on a surprise rate cut. Pop a ritalin and hunker down with you little brother's econ book.

-Chris

Anonymous said...

Warum habe ich heute so viele Schadenfreude?

Ruprecht said...

Gonna need a lot of popcorn for this one..
about eight hundred dollars worth I'd say..

Nick said...

Welcome to beginning of Armageddon. Be optimistic and lose everything you have.

Anonymous said...

Invite the hotties from Fox News to speak about thier personal support for GW Bush and the Iraq war while in lingerie, then I'll show up for sure.

Anonymous said...

anon January 21, 2008 9:23 PM:
you obviously don't understand that if Ron Paul had his way, the artificially low interest rates wouldn't have gone on for years creating this level of mal-investment. he wouldn't have spent us into a hole so deep we won't be able to afford all these disappearing entitlements. the list goes on and on as to why this would not have happened under Ron Paul.

Anonymous said...

January 21, 2008 (LPAC)--"The rich are so very, very rich. The West End [the wealthy area of metropolitan London] can't get enough diamonds. But the poor are getting poorer," Marks & Spencer CEO Sir Stuart Rose said earlier this month. "I have never seen such a polarized U.K. economy." A survey by the Institute for Fiscal Studies last week said the very rich have grown richer at twice the rate of the middle class over the last decade, the London Guardian reported today. Those riches are so concentrated in the financial services sector that London is 41 percent richer than the U.K. average in 2006, despite the accelerating poverty of so many Londoners

Tyrone said...

Short, fucking, everything!

Anonymous said...

When I think about it I touch myself!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Bernanke comes out tomorrow wearing a Martin Luther King mask. He then says..."Yo, Yo checks this out. I have a dream....of lower interest rates. I be cuttin dem rates by a full percentile!"

Anonymous said...

Lets just get it over with. We all know that no matter what Bernanke does we are in for a major recession sooner or later.

Just give me my $1600 so I can go buy a new H&K 40cal and some ammo and lets get it on.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Bernanke comes out tomorrow wearing a Martin Luther King mask. He then says..."Yo, Yo checks this out. I have a dream....of lower interest rates. I be cuttin dem rates by a full percentile!"

Thats the funniest fucking thing I've ever read............

Anonymous said...

I don't get shorts. Is there someone out there willing and always ready to put money against your shorts?

Anyways, I need that $800 tax gift from dubya to buy some guns and ammo.

When unemployment hits 15%, i don't expect those folks to wait in line quietly for handouts. Unfortunately, middle class people are the buffer between rich and poor. The poor will rob us with a gun and the rich will rob us with inflation.

Anonymous said...

Buy ammo.
Even if you don't have guns.
Ammo is currency in a crash.

tangelo mozilo said...

"Does DOPES stand for something?"

---------------------------

This past summer, when the stock market was hitting new highs, there was an anonymous poster who'd post things like this:

"DOW UP 103 POINTS TODAY TO 1387! KEEP PUTTING YOU MONEY IN THOSE 6% CDS!

DOPES!"

At the end of every post (usually in all caps), he'd call everyone "dopes". The guy's premise was that the crash wasn't going to happen, and if you didn't think so, you were missing out on the boom and you were a moron. Of course, this was very annoying.

Then, someone quipped that he was signing his name as "DOPES!". After that, it was quite easy to make fun of him, and the stock market started to tank anyway, so he pretty much stopped posting.

Today, people still sometimes pretend to be DOPES! and create a post in his style just to shake things up a bit. However, I don't think he ever really posts here anymore.

If you want to look at some genuine DOPES! posts, you should look in the archives of this site from the middle of June to September, 2007.

Anonymous said...

Libertarian does not mean lawless, you ignorant socialist imbecile. The system today is not free market at all. It is a mixture of capitalism and socialism contrally controlled by The Fed.

Oh really, so how are you going to enforce any regulations if Ron Paul wants to get rid of all the regulatory agencies? Are you going to use cops to do CPA work?

LauraVella said...

I have Zillow screen-prints of the neighborhoods I'm interested when prices come down. It's good to have prices recorded before they plummet.

I'm thinking home prices will loose an easy 100k after this weeks stock market crash.

Anonymous said...

Don't worry too much about welfare recipients. Most of them work under the table somewhere anyway. The welfare check is just used as a supplement to their cash/barter income. Actually many of them provide basic services in their neighborhoods that the rest of us rely on the hamster-wheel suburban economy for (there is a great book about it called "Off the Books: the Underground Economy of the Urban Poor.") Plus their streets are already patrolled by heavily armed gangs and should be relatively safe from interlopers.

I think it is the 2nd and 3rd generation suburbanites I worry most about. These are the folks used to getting everything they want, whether they can afford it or not. How many marketing, PR, insurance, sales and corporate accounting jobs do you think are going to exist after the collapse?

These people will be hungry and desperate. The welfare folks already know how to get by better than most.

Stuck in So Pa said...

"Anonymous said.....If they can't fund welfare, you had better watch out, because there are three generations of people who have never had a job before and have absolutely no skills or desire to work

I fear you are dead on about this. The welfare leaches may have no desire to work, but work they shall, albeit after testing crime to see if it pays first. Scary times ahead."

January 22, 2008 1:22 AM
========================== Years ago, like around early ninties or there about, the local paper did a study on welfare and found the 50% of all welfare recipients in the state live in Philly. Even then the article stated that we were up to three generations that had never held a job. By now, we have got to be up to the forth generation. Scary indeed, especially if you live in Philly!

Anonymous said...

Don't worry too much about welfare recipients. Most of them work under the table somewhere anyway. The welfare check is just used as a supplement to their cash/barter income. Actually many of them provide basic services in their neighborhoods that the rest of us rely on the hamster-wheel suburban economy for (there is a great book about it called "Off the Books: the Underground Economy of the Urban Poor.") Plus their streets are already patrolled by heavily armed gangs and should be relatively safe from interlopers.

You fools have no idea whats coming. Most of you have never interacted with an illegal or the entrenched entitlement minority. You wait till whitey/gringo can't top off the credit card(wellfare). Baby when that cuts into the beer and drugs, not to mention food its going to make the Rodney King riots look like a church meeeting. God I would love to there when these liberals finally get to interact with their pets. The ones who are doing well cutting the grass. Drink the koolade in 12 months you are going to know what a servere recession/depression is.

Anonymous said...

"You fools have no idea whats coming. Most of you have never interacted with an illegal or the entrenched entitlement minority. You wait till whitey/gringo can't top off the credit card(wellfare). Baby when that cuts into the beer and drugs, not to mention food its going to make the Rodney King riots look like a church meeeting. God I would love to there when these liberals finally get to interact with their pets. The ones who are doing well cutting the grass. Drink the koolade in 12 months you are going to know what a servere recession/depression is."
***********

The point of the post is that most poor people know how to survive w/o money. They don't "do well" they SURVIVE. Does that include crime--you bet your life it does! They will steal beer. They will steal drugs. They will rob/rape/beat/kill you. Some do that now. People also get kicked off of the welfare roles all of the time and yet they still survive, one way or another.

I fear how the faux-middle-class suburbanites will handle it when they can't get their beer and they can't get their drugs either. People that don't even know their neighbors. That is the more frightening thing to me. Talk about an entitlement class--and there are more of them and they're everywhere!

What kool aid are you drinking that makes you think that "whitey/gringo" is going to be any more humane or more prepared?


Oh, and by the way (1) just because I read a book doesn't make me a liberal and (2) it's spelled "welfare" not "wellfare"

You were right about one thing though: it is going to be bad.