January 20, 2008

Some days I actually feel sorry for the guy. He's in way over his head.



And like I said earlier this week, I think he's going to drop a nuclear bomb (from his helicopter) in a matter of days.

20 comments:

Jimmy Rabbit said...

I skipped the light fandango, turned cartwheels across the floor, I was feeling kind of sea-sick, but the crowd called out for more..

Thats very profound there Jimmy, what does it all mean?

Fucked if I know there Terry!!

greyhound said...

No way did I think he would let last Friday (long weekend) pass without intervention. I let my short positions go Tue-Thur and thought I was a genius Friday morning till Bush spoke.

Anyone worried about Tuesday open?

Randy said...

Fellas,

1) Japan has had its interest rates down to like zero for ten years now, yet the Yen strengthens when we lower our interest rates.. why is that?

2) When the NRA was pushing the “interest rates are at historic lows” as a reason to pay ½ mil for a $100k home, here at HP we where saying; the NRA logic is bogus, cause what really matters is the PE. (or % of personal income should not exceed approx. 30% for a mortgage). Why are we no obsessed with the Fed?

3) Between 2001 and 2005 the FED rates where less than 2%, yet the dollar did not collapse then. Why should it now be all that matters? (the housing ATM could not have been the only distinction). Is this whole Fed rate paradigm the right place to focus on for insight into the future?

4) One of the main reasons so many smart/ educated and financially savvy people got it (housing bubble) wrong, was because they where too close to it all; and lost prospective of the big picture, its human nature to go down a particular path and at some point forget why they even chose it, they spent their waking hours reviewing charts, trends and numbers, then making decisions based on what seemed right, but forgot the underlying fundamentals. Are we at HP now in the situation were we went down a path and now can’t see the trees from the forest?

5) All of the MSM had it wrong when they said the reason for Housing price increases was because of low interest rates, why do we at HP now buy in to the MSM that tiny fractional changes in Fed Interest rates impact everyday people with less then $100k budgets.

I think we are barking up the wrong tree.

This whole ‘blame the Fed’ theme, is missing the picture.

IMHO.. This is all very simple… Housing prices are overvalued by about 50% across the board and across the globe.
Everyone who leveraged this asset for its inflated value is in trouble now.
Some people who get it, call it ‘easy lending standards’ or ‘chasing higher returns while ignoring the risk’ etc.

Eventually, this truth will bubble to the surface, and some will get hurt financially by having to sell at a loss.

This is why I’m staying away from the Euro (and in general from investing in Europe) because this unclearity/smoke has a lot to do with current valuations of European assets.

So, HPers… Poleeeeze get of this ‘Fed factor’ it’s a very small ingredient in the pie.

Anonymous said...

100 point cut coming...buy stocks, buy gold, buy anything just get rid of your dollars because they will be worthless. hell even real estate is starting to not look so bad anymore. if i take out a $250,000 loan and that $250,000 is worth $125,000 a year from now might just be worth it

fish said...

Outstanding...do you know how long its been since I've thought about the "Commitments"!

Your Jewish Master said...

I think he knows exactly what's going on. But he's simply doing what he's told by those who don't.
Why? Those were the conditions of his employment.

Buzz Saw said...

If benny only drops 50 bps that will go over on Wall Street like a turd in a punch bowl. I sure hope my $800 comes soon, gotta stock up the bunker.

Paul E. Math said...

We need tall paul back. Now there was a real central banker. Although neither the current administration nor the next administration would allow him to do what's necessary to protect our long-term interests.

Bernanke will drop interest rates and then when inflation continues to creep up he will say, "well, I had a tough choice and I did what I had to." If he raises rates then everyone will blame him for all our economic woes.

I think he knows things are going to get bad either way and perhaps is just thinking about which way he'll spin the fallout.

Anonymous said...

He didn't intervene last week because he came to the rescue of his relatives in aug. When they were screaming on tv that he knows nothing and to do something. They all sold in the falll rally and are now waiting for the bottom to make a nice tidy profit.

Notice how their not as upset with this decline as they were with aug/sep's

Anonymous said...

Feel Sorry?

In a properly ordered society, the entire executive branch would be done away with immediately.

Jail the Remaning indefinitely.

Anonymous said...

Add it all up and what do you get?

The value of the buck is about to drop again, but this time off of a CLIFF.

$52 Trillion in GOV'T LIABS comming due over next 20-30 years... NO PROBLEM, If history is any guide we can expect the years 2025 to 2035 to bring us:

* minimum-wage well over $100 / hour,

* a loaf of bread will cost $50 to $80,

* a gallon of gasoline will cost $1000+ (due to a combination of peak oil & inflation),

* Gold (true to its 5000 year history as a safehaven for real savings) will be worth over USD $65K/oz and nobody will sell it unless they need a new house or some other tangible thing.

* the middle east will be a HOT ZONE from all the DU and NUKES expended during Israel's war with IRAN. (YES, the USA got sucked in after Israel started it, and we lost a few million of our GEN X and GEN Y in a protracted middle-east quagmire, further forcing up welfare-benefits taxes on the working class, and

* the BOOMERS are forced to work til they drop, cause THEIR ADV. $8,000/mo (junk CPI adjusted SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS) won't even pay the full cost of the electric bill, let alone all the other day to day living expenses of being retired.

Anonymous said...

Paul E. Math said...
We need tall paul back. Now there was a real central banker. Although neither the current administration nor the next administration would allow him to do what's necessary to protect our long-term interests.

Bernanke will drop interest rates and then when inflation continues to creep up he will say, "well, I had a tough choice and I did what I had to." If he raises rates then everyone will blame him for all our economic woes.

I think he knows things are going to get bad either way and perhaps is just thinking about which way he'll spin the fallout.

January 20, 2008 5:11 PM

Actually the will just continue to lie and state inflation as "tame"

Afterthought said...

Bernanke was always meant to be a fall guy.

His problem is that he doesn't have a strategy; he should erase America's debt and leave China holding the bag.

The social dislocations caused by hyper-inflation can be buffered by a new New Deal.

shred the evidence said...

Bernanke knows the games's over.

He and his cohorts are more concerned about eluding prosecution.

The Tall Guy said...

The FED is not in control anymore. No solution by the FED can solve the solvency crisis of the banking system.

Either the government meddles its harmful hand and have the 'correction' take years to resolve or it let's the market pick the loosers within 1 year.

Now let's vote in a prudent manner instead of empty promises.

Anonymous said...

It will be a one point drop.

Burn Baby Burn

Anonymous said...

Never feel sorry for the Secret Society.

Anonymous said...

Buying stocks is ok because it doesn't cost you anything after the initial $10 commission and you will get dividends with many stocks and all mutual funds. Buying RE costs you money for maintenance and taxes and you are going into deep leverage, not a good thing on the way down. Get a house if it is fairly priced, you can afford fixed payments and you actually plan to live there or can rent it out cash flow positive.

edd said...

January 21, Australia's
'Business Spectator'
Robert Gottliebsen:
"We have a US Federal Reserve
chairman claiming there will be
no US recession, and yet he does
not even mention the monoline
insurance disaster."
http://tinyurl.com/2g9pyu

jgw said...

I guess you do have a heart, Keith. Maybe it's time the bubble bloggers stop ranting about having been right and start thinking about what the hell we do now?