Housing crashing - check
Millions losing their jobs - check
Oil prices soaring - check
Gold prices soaring - check
Inflation roaring - check
Dollar tanking - check
Manufacturing slowing down - check
Consumer confidence dropping - check
Banks failing and flailing - check
Credit drying up - check
So, my question is, why are some people still arguing with HP'ers? Isn't it obvious that we were right, they were wrong, the Great Unwinding is here, and damn, shouldn't it be painfully obvious what's coming next?
January 03, 2008
Now that the Great Unwinding is so obviously underway, why are some people still so clueless?
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AL_QWAFFER,
I am one of the ones arguing. I am not arguing about whether there will be pain. There will.
I am arguing with the degree of the pain. You and your followers seem to think that it's 1929. More realistically it is 1981. 1929 will not happen again. Not with FDIC and Medicare and the SEC and all the other 3 letter acronyms out there.
I guess that is why you and your followers are such rabid Dr. Crazy supporters. You want to dismantle the safety net so that your predictions of doom can come true.
Well that and you are all also crazy too.
PS: before you and your krank followers call me a reattroll or whatever, relax. I am a renter who is heavily invested in metals. If you recall in the early 80s metals shot through the roof **TEMPORARILY**. Just remember adjusted for inflation gold has lost 90% of its value since 1981.
Its no different than the bug hitting the wind shield, it will not dawn on most of them until its too late.
Expect the awe mass first wave of bugs to hit the windshield in the spring when they cannot handle post hoiliday bills combined with ARM payment adjustments. They will all say they were banking on their tax returns and blame it all on uncle sugar/congress for the delay due to the late AMT patch legislation.
However the reality is they would have gone under anyways a month or so later.
Because Keith...
Most humans are useless eaters.
We are constitutionally incapable of recognizing that we are a particularly rapacious species that is hardly ever content.
We believe in gods...santa...and infinite growth on a finite planet.
AND WE WILL FIGHT TO THE DEATH TO PRESERVE THESE BELIEFS.
We fuck...fight...and eat...and think we are pretty clever monkeys.
Then we go to our gods and beg for forgiveness (alcohol, drugs, sex, TV, a 750i BMW, an idol called jesus).
Enjoy while you can sheeple for tomorrow we will die off.
Actually the 750 is highly over rated. I bought one and sold it 9 months later after spending more time in the shop than in my driveway.
Joe Six-Pack checking in, burp, fart, belch, puke. NASCAR ready to start new season cannot wait...
Oh, SUZANNE, income tax forms and holiday credit card bills arived today, please help me? You SAID we could do it - Remember?
I'm a victim. I didn't know. I didn't read. Why Vote?
I'm so stupid my head hurts...
Maybe the idiots can get a payday loan on their tax return money?
Sounds like opportunity knocking to me...
tick, tick, tick...
KaBOOM!
I am one of those who bought gold at $1.. I bought the low in real estate..I bought GOOGLE at $1..
You are ALL full of crap All of you.
> 1929 will not happen again. Not with FDIC and Medicare and the SEC and all the other 3 letter acronyms out there.
Are you kidding, Anon? The Fair Deal that Roosevelt implemented early in the Great Depression with tons of three and four letter- acronymed agencies is widely understood to have prolonged and deepened the economic downturn.
I expect, based on the historical record, that today's acronynms will do no differently.
A good rule of thumb: there is no situation so totally hopeless that a Federal agency can't make it worse.
I can see where the first two anonyposters are coming from inasmuch as they have taken the time and effort to observe, collect data, listen to others' opinions, think about this, and come to a reasoned conclusion.
However, most Americans are clueless because over the past 25 years, people have been generally OK without paying attention.
People who continue to ignore the real word today are in for a world of hurt.
It's mind numbing, the dumbing down of America. I used to think it was just because I live out in the "sticks," but head-in-the-sand stupidity is everywhere! As a nation we are greedy, lazy, and powerful, a historical triple threat......to us!
And all those safety nets that anon#1 brought up have ether been gutted by the republicans over the last twenty years, or will be paid out in inflated worthless dollars.
I don't hope for economic devastation and the political/military chaos
that it spawns, but history doesn’t lie.
Best of luck to all HP'ers during the coming year!
"Tata (India) Picked As Top Jaguar Bidder."
don't forget to add the U.S. capital withdrawals by foreign countries to your list Keith.
someone should start tracking this stuff.
Most people won't know there is a recession/depression until after it happens and they are out of a job. It's the MTV generation. Tomorrow is too far in the future to think about. Their idea of planning and thinking for the future is what they're going to have for dinner tonight.
Millions losing their jobs - check
^^^^^^^^ You're reaching here. You said there were what...1.3M total employed, so even 100% loss wouldn't be millions, since the overall economy is pushing up ever so slightly on jobs.
Gold prices soaring - check.
^^^^ So 20 years later, gold is now the same price it was then. "Inflation adjusted", shouldn't gold be pushing around $1500-2000/oz or more before we're back to 70s/80s roaring inflation/caught up?
Inflation roaring - check
^^^^See previous, although 2% my ass - they need to readjust it to 10-15%. How is "core" inflation excluding energy/food...you know, the things we need to survive/live in today's world? I can't eat my damn TVs.
Dollar tanking - check
^^^^Yeah, looks like we may have to choose another destination than Europe for our 1-month vacation in '09 after school is done.
Manufacturing slowing down - check
^^^^You've gotta be kidding me even mentioning this. Nothing is made in this country anymore 'cept foreign cars. Useless stat - try again Keith.
Consumer confidence dropping - check
^^^^ Sheeple ftw!
Things are bad, but it's cyclical - everything is. My inlaws think we're poor because we downsized my gas-guzzling POS american car to a roomy yet compact Scion xB. Saves us about $2000/yr in gas and maintenance/tires easily - not to mention I'm not putting the car in the shop every 2-4 weeks. I guess spending less than you make really /is/ unusual these days.
It’s the dumbing down of America. The masses want to go to Wal-Mart and fill their psyche with needless objects while under the influence of electronic media and brain depleting man made foods.
Go park in front of Wal-Mart sometime and watch the people.
"Manufacturing slowing down - check
^^^^You've gotta be kidding me even mentioning this. Nothing is made in this country anymore 'cept foreign cars. Useless stat - try again Keith."
While most mass market items are made outside the US, some smaller, unusual things ARE still manufactured right in your backyard. We make flower frog holders in addition to selling garden items (more than a million in sales yearly) and the cost of our materials has gone through the roof...to the point where we will be forced to shut down production at the midpoint of '08. We'll still sell the rest of our line, but this item, the one thing we make in house (have a patent and everything, item in production since the 1940's) will simply cease to be. The volume doesn't support mass production overseas, and the price would be beyond ridiculous for the end consumer.
manufacturing jobs should all be gone and that will be a good thing. paying a fat, lazy, uneducated union slob $40 an hour for doing what an Indian can do for $40 a day is stupid.
Because people are raised in a corporate commercial world where they are cattle. And they are herded with the Pepsi generation to believe all is well, I bet before the end of Rome they had plenty of people scoffing saying we are a world power it can't happen here.
Whatever, I hope for all our sakes that this is not as bad as it should be. There are some very serious problems on the way and you know what....ignore them or discount them they are still coming.
"""Go park in front of Wal-Mart sometime and watch the people."""
I used to live in Orange County recently and one day I did just that. Watched the sheeple coming and going into Wal-Mart. What a sight, it was as though the downtrodden masses of unkempt soiled half-zombied trolls had come out of hiding to feed. It was almost scary. I never realized that Orange County had such an undiscovered species wandering among us.
Then earlier in 2007 while driving across the country we stopped at a McDonalds in the middle of the heartland in Missouri (kid needed a happy meal) and I became horrified as I watched what passes for an employee these days. They resembled the half-dead zombies from "28 days later". I watched these individuals literally stumble around as they did their jobs half ass. The dumb are everywhere. It is truly scary where we are headed. Good luck!!!
A good rule of thumb: there is no situation so totally hopeless that a Federal agency can't make it worse.
January 03, 2008 2:21 PM
Amen.
AL_QWAFFER,
I am one of the ones arguing. I am not arguing about whether there will be pain. There will.
I am arguing with the degree of the pain. You and your followers seem to think that it's 1929. More realistically it is 1981. 1929 will not happen again. Not with FDIC and Medicare and the SEC and all the other 3 letter acronyms out there.
I guess that is why you and your followers are such rabid Dr. Crazy supporters. You want to dismantle the safety net so that your predictions of doom can come true.
Well that and you are all also crazy too.
--------------
It is true what they say, and this post proves it...the mentally challenged are people to.
Here's a thought. The next phase of this drama is a grand-scale government bailout. Of everyone and everything.
Our system relies on a constantly expanding supply of money. The way money is created is through borrowing. But borrowing is contracting since so many people and businesses are defaulting on mortgages, credit cards and loans.
So who is the 'borrower of last resort'? Ans: the federal government. The federal government will borrow money in order to fund bailouts of all kind (mortgage, health care, manufacturing, social security, banks, you name it). Let's not forget the great excuse that military actions require deficit spending.
The final phase is when it becomes clear that even the government cannot afford to pay the money back. That's when things go Weimar.
When Hillary or some other spendthrift democrat gets into the white house this next phase will kick into 2nd gear (the Bush administration has already started it off).
Just a thought.
I see two reasons:
1) People want to save face. Nobody likes to admit they've been taken for a sucker. So, to save face they're insisting they got a good deal and made the right decision even though all indicators point to the opposite reality.
2) Ego. In this decade a house went from being simply a place to live and raise a family to an ego-driven status symbol. Some people are so insecure and weak that they can't let go of having the "status" of "ownership" even though anyone with a pulse got approved for a mortgage this decade and none of them actually own anything other than massive, toxic debt.
Go park in front of Wal-Mart sometime and watch the people.
I'll pass. I go there every couple of months to stock up on ammo (best prices anywhere) and being amongst the trash in there is almost unbearable.
we downsized my gas-guzzling POS american car to a roomy yet compact Scion xB. Saves us about $2000/yr in gas and maintenance/tires easily - not to mention I'm not putting the car in the shop every 2-4 weeks.
Happy homedebtor, watch out, there have already been multiple shootings in Scottsdale this week including a freeway shooting and that car ain't gonna stop any bullets.
The people who argue serve a useful purpose. The fact that they're still here indicates that we have a long way to go before we hit bottom.
Also, I'll add another item to the list of indicators that we're in trouble. Today, India will no longer accept US dollars at travel sites such as the Taj Mahal. They got tired of adjusting the entry fees every day to account for the falling dollar. The once almighty dollar is now the weak sister of currencies.
The economy IS NOT FALLING APART Keith. But to you and your followers, it is. So keep thinking and dreaming that the financial economic disaster you folks have waited for is here.
The rest of us have jobs (good paying jobs I might add), lots of disposable income and lots of money left over after we pay our bills.
You guys don't live in the real world. You live in a world of "gloom and doom" in which everything is just plain terrible.
As Americans, we need to think optimistically and please don't call me a "sheep, sheeple, idiot", etc... Because that is getting old.
Well here is to a PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR FOR EVERYONE. I can't wait when 2008 ends, you folks will still be predicting the end of our civilization!
It is good that further decreases of house prices are not yet generally accepted reality. That means that we early in the cycle and can wait patiently for further decreases. When EVERYBODY is doom and gloom, it might be time to buy, and I think prices are still too high.
"Anonymous said...
The economy IS NOT FALLING APART Keith. But to you and your followers, it is. So keep thinking and dreaming that the financial economic disaster you folks have waited for is here."
Denial or a RealWhore?...
Prior to the federal reserve, we have had three national banks that have "failed". The primary reason for their failure is the overextension of credit with fiat currency. It has happened before and it will happen again.
Is there anyone out there that beleives we, as a nation, can pay off $10 trillion in national debt; be able to fund social security and medicare for the boomers? Plus the trillions in our own personal credit card, mortgage debt.
My guess, the federal reserve will "collapse" one day with the stock market. But the fed reserve has a few more years of tricks before the "trainwreck" happens.
Frank,
Thanks for the heads up - but I've never been to Arizona short of flying over that wasteland, and I never really plan on going there. :)
I'm on the east coast about 20 minutes outside DC - so outside the impending shooting-zone but not so far out that I'm in the housing-demilitarized zone where they're @ 35% off and falling. :)
Next up on our visitation list: St Lucia for Xmas. Gonna be a busy year, so we're avoiding everyone for the holidays. ;)
Anonymous said...
>>>>The rest of us have jobs (good paying jobs I might add), lots of disposable income and lots of money left over after we pay our bills.
You guys don't live in the real world. You live in a world of "gloom and doom" in which everything is just plain terrible.
January 03, 2008 7:33 PM
=======================
To the Anonymous people who enjoy visiting and reading this Blog.
I don't know where you get that I/we are broke/busted/& disgusted??? I couldn't be happier with my life. You/me & other's on this blog should be GRATEFUL that we will NOT be feeling the PAIN as much as the other's down the road!
I am NOT following Keith's lead in the least! I just discovered Keith's Blog in October 2007. I can't describe how happy I was to find this Blog after having to deal with people LIKE YOU daily! People who want to continue to choose to be ignorant and complacent with what is coming after being told otherwise...
These discussions are a means to an end: so that people can simply be prepared! NOT SURPRISED...
For me this Blog is an open forum for ALL to DISCUSS what is happening behind the scenes that the 'Power's That Be' do NOT wish for the MASSES to become aware of!
One thing that some here are saying that i agree with is how stupid and utterly futile some humans are,doesnt matter if they are American ,Indian etc.
There is no natural predator taking out the slow and stupid,im sympathetic to disabilitys etc dont get me wrong but lets face it stupid people breed more look at the turd world for instance.
Dont forget the term "Hope for the best,Prepare for the worst"
What's with the Walmart bashing? I shop at WM all the time. Cheap shit. The same products you buy elsewhere for 20-50% more.
You all go ahead and pay $5 for milk at Kroger or Publix or Vons. I'll happily slum it down to WM and buy the exact same thing for $3.59. And same goes with other groceries, sporting goods, car care, etc. Anything that comes in a pre-packaged box will be cheaper at Walmart.
I couldn't give a fuck who is in front of me in the checkout line. Sounds to me like many of you are elite snobs. Typical liberal Dmeocrats. Pretend to be concerned with the little guy but then mock him.
I'm honest. I don't give a fuck about the little guy. I'll step over him and his dying grandma to make an extra $1 for myself. And if that includes shopping at the same store as him, so be it.
Princess Moonbat thinks anyone who disagrees with her and Kweefer's end of the world scenario is ignorant and complacent.
Liesten sweetie just because I disagree with your lunacy doesn't make me ignorant. All I read here is nonesense about buying cheap ammo for the great riots that are coming.
I've been an avid reader of Kweefie;s for a long time, 2 years or so. Almost everything he or his loyal followers have predicted has been wrong. He got housing right. But even so he was predicting 70% off by the end of 2007. Not even close. He predicted $3000 gold in 2007. He also predicted a war with Iran, dow jones at 5000 and the bankruptcy of Countrywide.
All wrong. And yet for some reason after such a poor track record, questioning his predictions makes me ignorant?
Honey take your valium and rethink that one.
You're assuming there's an upper limit to human stupidity.
Don't worry, it's a common and understandable mistake.
"manufacturing jobs should all be gone and that will be a good thing. paying a fat, lazy, uneducated union slob $40 an hour for doing what an Indian can do for $40 a day is stupid.
January 03, 2008 4:28 PM"
What union factory jobs were paying $40 an hour? Stop listening to Rush you ingnorant troll.
You are obviously too fat and lazy to think for yourself but let me try to explain some thing to you.
That "union slob" is probably making about $20 to $30 an hour for a nonsupervisory factory job. 10-15% of his take-home pay goes to taxes. The rest of the money is spent in the community where he lives to buy the neccesities to support his family. This helps his neighbors because they work in the shops where he buys food clothing etc. This is how communities thrive.
Now let's consider the $40 a day Indian. You say it's stupid to not see the value of that bargain. Based on a 16 hour work day the Indian gets about $2.50 an hour. That means the company saves about $75 an hour since the Indian is working two shifts a day. Great so every time a company closes a factory in the USA and moves production to a third world hell hole the cost of the proctuct that had previously been made by "fat, lazy, $40 an hour union slobs," should now cost about 60% less because the company is passing the savings along to the consumer, right? Now even a "fat, lazy, union slob" is not stupid enough to believe that, though I'm afraid you might be.
The $75 the company saves by screwing the workingmen of this country goes right into the pocket of the CEOs and other officers of the companies in the form of six figure salaries and seven figure bonuses or it goes to celebritwhores like Michael Jordan who don't see anything wrong with taking big fat paychecks for putting their name on just about anything.
That concentration of money at the top takes most of that that money out of the consumer economy that keeps this country afloat. This concentration of money also decrease the percentage of that money which will be paid in taxes which means that the fat, lazy, $40 an hour union slobs" have to pay more in taxes even though they are earning less if they even have a job. What percentage of the "fat, lazy, union slobs" have to get government assistance in some form or another after some MBA genius shuts down the factory and kills the economy of the "union slob's" home town? That is just another way that the tax dollars of a population with stagnant wages is being expected to subsidize corporations with their tax dollars.
I don't know what you do for a living but I suspect it involves 6% (of nothing lately) and Ramen. A six month night class at a junior college is not an education.
Good luck with that new factory job in India. I here the ramen vindaloo is to die for.
Because their paychecks depend upon them not seeing the obvious.
- T. S. Eliot
Its the same reason why Ron Paul is getting stiffed from CNN, ABC, CBS, etc, etc. They dont want the masses to hear the wisdom of Ron Paul's plans for a restored America and American Spirit.
The Bushco/Bible/Oil/Support Our Troops/Death for Profit Cult:
They love war.
They hate peace.
They want 100% world control like Hitler.
They profit from killing others.
I can show you the proof. They know who they are.
Earlier poster:
"I'm honest. I don't give a fuck about the little guy. I'll step over him and his dying grandma to make an extra $1 for myself. And if that includes shopping at the same store as him, so be it."
This I can accept and understand. At least you know where you stand with this poster and I applaud his or her candor.
- Adam Smith
People will never learn till they burn.
Now you have realwhore chicks wearing bikinis to try to stimulate some buying excitement.
Soon the will be topless...
Then bottomless...
Then spreadeagle...
This will demonstrate to the world that realtwhores are real whores that love easy money and avoid work because they are unskilled and lazy.
At least all the dudes will get to check out some various types of realwhore melons and nectarines as they bare it all.
These people have no clue. They'd whore anything out for a quick, easy buck.
I'm happy to be watching these losers finally pay the price.
Let them be as miserable as they have made the hard working people.
Let them eat cake!
That "union slob" is probably making about $20 to $30 an hour for a nonsupervisory factory job. 10-15% of his take-home pay goes to taxes.
--------
1. How can 10-15% of his take home go to taxes? Amazing how financially illiterate you idiots are.
2. $20 to $30 is about $18 to $28 too much. A Chinaman can do it for $2. Sorry you union slobs are ancient history. Get used to it.
To those calling visitors to this Blog "Followers".
I am not a follower.
I will accept "like-minded".
School Districts don't verify citizenship in Ca!!!
Watched a line at Wells Fargo get near the exit door, full of spanish speaking latinos. Hmmmm yesterday happened to be payday for those receiving state benefits.
You know I am a latino american who was born here and I have had it with these piece of crap people looking for handouts and our piece of crap state that is giving it away. I was always compassionate towards people and never paid attention to the slobs that take the freebies and run. I have had it, we moved to a nice area to get the best education for our kids and now these illegals are getting sent to our school.
The first budget cuts in California should be to cut all illegal benefits and ship out all illegal inmates. The party is over, this state cannot afford it any longer.
No more EBT, WIC, HEALTH BENEFITS,
FREE EDUCATION, STATE IDS., BUSINESS LICENSES, and CRIME.
Its time they earned there keep and if they want in they have to pay $5,000 for each citizenship.
3 year waiting period
Background checked from there own country.
Make it illegal to employ illegals with a $1 million fine and jail time.
These guys were a huge part of the housing problem here in Ca.
Those who committed fraud must be deported.
They will run back to their countries if the handouts stop!!!!
Ooh, I made a typo in a very long extemporaneous post and that's the only you see fit to comment on. I take that to mean I was right on every other point I made in my post.
Oh, sorry for the big word. What that fancy word means is that I was thinking and typing at the same time. You really should try that some time. If you can't handle both at the same time give thinking a try for a change. You might learn something.
Yes, unions are history: American History. It was union labor that built this country and union jobs that fueled the post WW2 prosperity that made this country the greatest in the world.
And all it will take to destroy this country is pathetic little trolls like yourself who are only concered with their pathetic little urges. If you can't see what is wrong with sending all our manufacturing jobs to a totalitarian communist dictatorship with a population of 1.3 billion then there is really no hope for you.
Now go eat your ramen and think about trying to become a useful member of society now that your 6% is 6% of nothing and is going to be for a very long time.
Happy Homedebtor said...
...
Gold prices soaring - check.
^^^^ So 20 years later, gold is now the same price it was then. "Inflation adjusted", shouldn't gold be pushing around $1500-2000/oz or more before we're back to 70s/80s roaring inflation/caught up?
...
January 03, 2008 3:45 PM
--------------------
The average gold price for all of 1977 was $148. The average gold price for 2007 was $695. That's much more informative than comparing a brief spike up to $850 on 21 Jan 1980 to today's gold bull market. The average for 2000 was $279 and now the gold price is over $860. I would say that qualifies as "soaring." Most of the price increase of the last few years has just been a recovery from an extremely undervalued level, so this bull market has quite a bit of life left, especially if Helicopter Ben lives up to his name.
Anonymous said...
One thing that some here are saying that i agree with is how stupid and utterly futile some humans are,doesnt matter if they are American ,Indian etc.
There is no natural predator taking out the slow and stupid,im sympathetic to disabilitys etc dont get me wrong but lets face it stupid people breed more look at the turd world for instance.
January 03, 2008 9:16 PM
------------------
Ever seen "Idiocracy?" The human race is degenerating.
"I guess that is why you and your followers are such rabid Dr. Crazy supporters. You want to dismantle the safety net so that your predictions of doom can come true."
- - - - - - - - - - -
Go f@ck yourself; don't put words in every reader's mouth here. I'm rooting for doom and gloom for the housing market, because I don't think I should have to make a crappy financial decision in order to own a home. I for one am not rooting for or predicting a general collapse of the economy, but if you aren't taking notice of the warning signs of the rosks to the broader economy, maybe your brain fell out of your ass at some point. 2 years ago, people who were *reasonably* predicting an unraveling of the housing market were dubbed chicken littles. But it turned out that we were right, and the risks we saw in the housing market were real. If you aren't acknowledging the real risks that exist to the broader economy today, that have been born of all of the financial horse sh@t that has been perpetrated by speculative morons, financial institutions, and our government over the last several years, then you sir are as dumb as a box full of hair and you should spend your time reading up on American Idol rather than putting words into the mouths of the intelligible community here.
Furthermore, go f@ck yourself.
im a real whore and i think your comments are offensive, because im not unskilled and not lazy, i just really enjoy sex and im sexy. and obviously your pissed at whores, because you cant get any sex. even if u pay for it nobody wants u because you are so ugly, fuckin chink
Dude, don't you know it's always a good time to buy a house!!
The economy IS NOT FALLING APART Keith
Last year's claim was that the housing market is not falling apart.
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