January 18, 2008

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


OK, HP'ers, you've been right all along, and now the results are there for everyone to see.

So, Mister and Missus Smarty Pants HP'ers, what do you think comes next?


105 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure what the panic is all about as long as you don't have to buy food, put gas in your car, heat your home, buy a home,look for a job or need health care,
your good to go.

Brian said...

Collapse and government bailout of the bond insurers. This will be the big one.

Without bond insurance, bond valuations will drop and rates will rise accordingly. Neither will make the government happy.

Remember one thing about the Fed - they have little to gain by hyperinflation, since it destroys the value of the bonds and dollars they hold. The NUMBER ONE beneficiary of high inflation is the government, since it allows them to liquidate their debt through currency debasement.

IF and only IF this triggers a wage-price spiral, then homedebtors will come along for the ride, much to the detriment of the mortgage lenders. If they keep their job and can service the monthly payment, of course.

If we have a wicked Japanese style recession, all bets are off.

Keynesian money-pumping will fail, helicopters or not.

In that case, the deflationary forces will render the Fed powerless.

The Fed can't give money away. It can only encourage borrowing.

It is government deficit-spending that is inflationary, not Fed liquidity injections.

Brian

Westparker said...

Keith, here's my 2 cents worth:
Everyone is talking about real estate, the stock market and the Dollar dropping. I think all of them will continue. Instead of beating that horse, here are 2 possible bubbles few have talked about.

Next inflating bubble: Farmland - Driven by the increased ag prices. I've been hearing about speculators buying up Almond orchards in CA. It won't be as widespread as housing or .com, but it may generate some interest.

Next bubble to burst: US treasury bonds - The 10yr yield currently sits at 3.68%. If I remember my macro econ right, the yield should represent the average expected inflation rate + a risk free market rate (usually about 2%). If we even believe the government’s CPI data at 4.1%, we should have a treasury rate at 6.1% or higher. Either the market knows something I don't, or the yield has been manipulated. My guess is that the Chinese have driven the yield down because they have no other alternative assets to purchase with their dollars. This will have to unwind eventually, with the Yuan strengthening 7+% a year and inflation in China running 10+%, they are earning a negative real return on their investment. That will not happen forever.

Anonymous said...

Keith, you asked for predictions in late 2007 and I've already seen some of my facetious predictions coming true.

I'm too scared to make any more predictions!!!

Princess Mononoke said...

Oh but didn't Bush and Bernanke and Paulson keep reiterating over and over and over again (all of last year) to the citizens of the United States of America that, "We have a sound economy, everything is GREAT!"

Well UP yours for being bald faced LIARs to the people of this NATION and the WORLD!!!

****SHAME on all of you!****

Anonymous said...

Got the last little bit of dough I had in the stock market out last week.

Thanks for hammering home the truth of the matter, HP.

I am not the smartest tool in the shed, but even I could see this one coming.

Best wishes to all. Keep your powder dry.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

My business is exploding right now. January has always been the worst month of the year (and this is the 5th year), and this time it's blowing away all records. Sales are completely insane, to where my life has been put on hold so I can get a bigger fulfillment warehouse on board just to keep up.

BUT - here's the clincher: I'm in a business that companies tend to ignore when times are good, then come running to for help when times are BAD.

The fact that my sales & marketing books have sold more this January than the previous four Januaries combined says a lot........

As to my personal life, it'll be renting for one more year, then buying in '09. Even if we haven't hit absolute bottom by then, prices will be low enough for it to make sense, then I can get another dog and all that good stuff that most renters can't do.

(Hey, I never said I *like* renting, I just said buying today would be financial suicide. I'll take inconvenience over financial suicide, thank you.)

eric in vegas said...

"as long as you don't have to buy food, put gas in your car, heat your home, buy a home,look for a job or need health care,
your good to go."

The cost of health care is going to keep millions from ever having a chance at retirement.

Anonymous said...

I don't know? Right now we are in freefall!

Anonymous said...

Pain, Fear & Loathing.

Let's go crack some skulls....

raynla said...

What's next is the AMERO

RayNLA

AMIGAUSER said...

-1. Bush introduces a tax cutting stimulus package

-2. The housing market begins to stabilize, increase in certain areas (interest rates are now very low, Home starts are way down)

-3. Hillary wins the Democrat nomination - promises free health care for all

-4. Romney wins the republican nomination, promises to bomb, bomb Iran

-5. Ron Paul retires to the Caribbean, 20 million from his presidential fund goes with him

-6. China stock market makes new highs

-7. China wins the most medals at the Olympics

-8. Hillary wins the election, republicans win the senate

-9. Free health care voted down (not enough money), America bombs Iran (plenty of money for wars).

10. Keith's dad takes his trust fund from him, tells him he has to get a real job

keith said...

amig - good list except #10 - every penny I have I've made (and am doing my best to try to keep 'em!)

Want to travel the world and stay out of a cube? Don't be crushed by a mortgage, live below your means, save money, invest wisely, and find a job where you can work anywhere.

If you're an IT programmer, do you need to live in San Fran to do it? If you're an auto mechanic, those skills are needed everywhere.

And for those of you looking to do the expat thing, more power to you. There's a big world out there that's now open for business.

Anonymous said...

Bye bye consumer credit!

This is the elephant in the room. Citi and Capital One tits up by the end of 2008.

Anonymous said...

3 things/events will hit the economy to sober everyone up, once and for all

1-Bond insurer defaults (As noted in a previous post)

2-A significant bank fails due to loan defaults spike in all categories of loans and not just "sub-prime" mortgages resulting in people realizing its bigger than sub-prime

3-The "stimulus" package has ZERO positive affect, but does put the US in deeper debt

RESULT:

A completely new administration that forces out or marginalizes Helo Ben and replaces him with Tall Paul Volcker or someone like him who does the right thing and crushes inflation, and forces fiscal prudence upon America.

(The ironic twist is that if a Volcker does come in, you better hurry and get a home loan stat before the rates go through the roof, because all the price cuts in the world will not amount to a hill of beans then)

REF: The "stimulus package"

Doesn't anyone remember the Japanese attempt at this? It flopped, so why are we try the same thing? The difference is we are going to use borrowed money and the American recipients will spend it but to just get by for another month, while the Japanese pulled it out of their cash reserves and their recipients saved the money!!!

Ed said...

housing crashes some more in 2008, that is a given.

we are at or near the bottom in stocks. I have been saying 1325 is the S&p500 bottom. Closed at 1333 yesterday, close enough for me I bought. You can't ever time it perfectly, but I'm fairly confident about my decision.

Gold will fall back to $700 by year end as that bubble pops.

I am 100% opposed to the rate cuts coming and the stimulus package. It's an election year and both sides will spend like mad to prop the economy up. It is coming and it will boost stock prices, whether we like it or not. Instead of fighting it, I'm going along for the ride.

Oh and as far as IT work goes, you don't have to live in a suitcase to live the good life. I do the same work from home with very minimal travel. I have no mortgage, no debt, I haven't sat in a cube in years and have enough saved that I could take 5 years off without breaking a sweat.

debtisslavery.blogspot.com

Ed said...

"The cost of health care is going to keep millions from ever having a chance at retirement."

Bullshit. I'm so sick and tired of hearing this garbage about health care being too expensive. I pay $153 a month for my coverage with a maximum out of pocket of $1500 a year. It is tax deductible since I'm self employed so after tax cost is about $110. That means the most I will pay in any year is about $2500 assuming the worst.

Instead of bitching to Hillary that you can't afford health care, how about getting rid of cable? Or getting rid of the cell phone? Or not eating out every night? Or instead of a $700 BMW lease you buy a Honda Civic for $250 a month? Or instead of the $400 jeans how about getting the $50 jeans? And on and on.

But no it's easier to just complain and ask the government to provide things for you than make sacrifices.

Roccman said...

Stack Market Crash - January 08

All banks fail and are consolidated under one - probably JP Morgan-April 08

The real id card is issued in May and in June we attack Iran.

Food and gas rationing begin in September.

October 08 Martial law.

Elections cancelled in 08.

By 2015 90% of the global population has die off.

Cheers.

decaffeinated said...

Here are my previous predictions from a different thread (I'll add one more in a bit):

+ Dow 9000
+ gold @ 975/oz (USD)
+ silver @ 18/oz (USD)

These 3 predictions are circa Jan 1, 2009.

Here's a prediction that looks improbable right now:

Either Japanese or Chinese bankers (or both) exit the US Treasury market. US enters Argentina-style meltdown. US citizens suddenly find that they can't withdraw more than $40 / week from their bank accounts. No money can be sent abroad, etc. US citizens begin scavenging their local dumps, looking for scrap metal and other items of "value".

Anonymous said...


The Fed can't give money away. It can only encourage borrowing.


The US Treasury can give money away and they will be doing so soon. The future be damned

borkafatty said...

I know the Dollar is tanking...but at this stage of the game..its very nice to be Debt free, and cash positive...oh and a nice collection of metal.

Anonymous said...

For gold prices to drop, inflation has to be under control. Does anyone really believe that is going to happen anytime soon? The Fed is pumping liquidity into the system and the government will be sending checks to everyone in a couple of months. I don't get these clowns who keep thinking gold prices will drop soon. As long as The Fed keeps cutting rates, the currency is being debased, which leads to more inflation, not less.

JesusCrispy said...

For me, bargain house shopping. If you look hard you can find deeply discounted houses in prime neighborhoods. It's funny looking at houses right now, one house is renovated and empty, seller desperate and already has come down 20% to 300K, his neighbor in a beater house with less amentities wants 450K. I laughed at the stupid realator, he must have got his liscence from the back of a cereal box. Moral of the story business still happens in a downturn, you just have to do your homework (and pray a bit more).

thomas jefferson said...

"I pay $153 a month for my coverage with a maximum out of pocket of $1500 a year. It is tax deductible since I'm self employed so after tax cost is about $110. That means the most I will pay in any year is about $2500 assuming the worst."

Who's your provider and how old are you, Ed.

tangelo mozilo said...

Three predictions for this year:

1.) Stock market meltdown quantifies this financial catastrophe for the average slob, who finally begins to realize there is a problem.

2.) Stagflation for several years looking forward.

3.) Sales of Ramen and popcorn go through the roof.

consultant said...

All those who are under 40-welcome to the world of stagflation.

This is going to go on for a while, with the cost of energy continuing to trend upward. This is going to bite.

If as a nation we fight to maintain the status quo-in terms of politics-the country is going to lurch to the right, probably even far right. That will be mostly bad.

If we reorganize our priorities we might be able to hold center and restore a resized American dream that allows us to maintain our liberties.

smokester said...

"I'm too scared to make any more predictions!!!"

that's where I'm at! I liked that prediction that "Ron Paul takes $20 million to the Caribbean though!"

Anonymous said...

You are an idiot Keith. Your followers too. Because of all of the negative news you folks espouse, our economy is tanking. How do you folks live in a world of negativity? Why not think positive and good thoughts? But you folks seem to glee and want bad news. Shame on you.

Anonymous said...

Negativity isn't always such a bad thing... What may seem negative to you probably seems realistic to me.

I would rather try to be realistic about the world, than to be naively optimistic.

Optimism is overrated at times. The people who missed getting into life rafts on the Titanic did not have much to be optimistic about.

Anonymous said...

Most realtors are stupid and/or corrupt.

Anonymous said...

My stockbroker friend keeps saying that stocks are undervalued and the market will go up again. He thinks it is all based on P/E ratios which are a lot lower than back in 2000.

Am I missing something? I got out of the market late last year and am sitting on the sidelines. He thinks I should think about getting back in.

For those who think the stock market will go back up, please state your reasons why? I am pessimistic.

Anonymous said...

I do not make predictions. The media says people who make predictions and post it to the Internet are responsible for making the prediction come true. Apparently this law of nature only applies if the prediction hurts the bankers. If, for example, I predict Ron Paul will win, that will actually work in reverse and Ron Paul will lose.

Anonymous said...

Stock market back up to 13000-13400, then back down to 11,800, back up to 12,800-13,000, then back down 11,600-11,800- rinse and repeat until its between 9000 and 10000, if not lower seeing that we don't make anything anymore.

Illegals Everywhere said...

"Instead of bitching to Hillary that you can't afford health care, how about getting rid of cable? Or getting rid of the cell phone? Or not eating out every night? Or instead of a $700 BMW lease you buy a Honda Civic for $250 a month? Or instead of the $400 jeans how about getting the $50 jeans? And on and on".

Well said Ed! but none of these sheep will give up any bling to pay for their own health plan. They will pay 200 a month to insure a leased BMW and complain that a health plan cost 150..

Harbinger said...

Civil Strife that will turn into a segregated country.
Curfews,armed escorts along highways for trucks delivering fuel,foods.
Ban on ammo and gun sales.
Large black market in every city for even essential items (russian ex pats vying for control)
Neighborhood police forces.

mike said...

Yeah don't you know, the macroeconomy responds to HP's negative vibe, not fundamentals.

Anonymous said...

"$50 jeans?"

Do people call you Mr. Fancy Pants?

Anonymous said...

" Anonymous said...
You are an idiot Keith. Your followers too. Because of all of the negative news you folks espouse, our economy is tanking. How do you folks live in a world of negativity? Why not think positive and good thoughts? But you folks seem to glee and want bad news. Shame on you.

January 18, 2008 2:49 PM"

Shame on me? F*ck You. Go troll somewhere else. Try Mister Rogers Neighborhood or listen to an expert on world affairs like Katie Couric-the REAL Genius. People are about to get hurt over this. Maybe you will be one of the willing? BAaah Baaa Baa sheeple. You don't sound stupid, but you must be. Are you a SF Liberal? Gonna Ride your bike on Friday night? Maybe its Feinstein, Pelosi or Boxer writing in -nah, between the three of those douches they couldn't compose a lucid thought. My wish to you still remains: Go F*ck Yourself with your cheery, positive BULLSHIT.

Anonymous said...

Who posted that last one, Richard Simmons? You gay wad grass smoking hippie; get off this board and go further into debt with the rest of blind Americans.

Mammoth said...

What comes next?

A big market rebound before the next leg down...

Frank said...

"If as a nation we fight to maintain the status quo-in terms of politics-the country is going to lurch to the right, probably even far right."

Boy I hope so. I am sick to death of political correctness. If liberalism finally dies, we can't a chance to speak honestly at last.

Happy Homedebtor said...

It's human nature: if something comes down to a choice, and you choose one side/aspect, then to feel validated you must root for and cheer on the loss of the other side(s). Overall, it wouldn't surprise me to see an economic apocalypse on the horizon - I just don't care. :) In all of modern history, there's 1 investment that has never been shown to depreciate, and has the highest virtually-guaranteed ROI of any investments available: education.

So my mutual funds and savings may lose some money. So my house may tank in value (at which point, with $0 down and maybe $15-20K in additions/improvements in it, I'll just walk away and call it a day - and we'll buy another one in my wife's name ;) ). While it's being sorted out and after it's settled one way or another, I'll be light years ahead of just about all of you in real terms. Knowledge is power ladies and gents.

Mark in San Diego said...

Short term trends are pretty imposible to make - although real estate won't hit bottom till 2009 in bubble areas. . .I predicted yesterday that there would be "bargain hunting" today in the market, and I bought Chevron at 82.20 yesterday, and am up $2 today. . .but I won't hold it long.

As for long term trends - more of the same - hollowing out of the job market - 80/20 split - 20% do very well in the world market jobs (Microsoft, Google, etc.) and 80% of American public works at Starbucks, CarpetLand, or Walmart, and gets $10 an hour at best. . .middle class is gone (although the 80% THINK they are middle class).

tangelo mozilo said...

anonytard 2:49 stuttered . . .

"But you folks seem to glee and want bad news."
-----------------------

I think that we who are "gleeing" about all this are just happy to see the end of a clearly unsustainable economic model that rewards debt and profligacy and punishes saving and prudence.

Also, I am happy to see it end sooner rather than later because the longer the inevitable bubble burst is delayed, the more painful it will be for everyone, including you.

Ron said...

Straight up road warrior where people fight for gas.

Anonymous said...

hey keith, too bad you don't live in the states. we are all going to get checks. damn i love this country...

Chuubs said...

"Boy I hope so. I am sick to death of political correctness. If liberalism finally dies, we can't a chance to speak honestly at last."

If that happens, you might want to brush up on making sense before you go speaking in public.

Anonymous said...

Next bubble to burst: US treasury bonds - The 10yr yield currently sits at 3.68%. If I remember my macro econ right, the yield should represent the average expected inflation rate + a risk free market rate (usually about 2%). If we even believe the government’s CPI data at 4.1%, we should have a treasury rate at 6.1% or higher.

This is something I've been worried about for almost 10 years. I've been consistently wrong calling for a turn here though - I've underestimated the volume of dollars from overseas that must be parked in long-dated high-grade paper. Sadly for those of us with fixed-income investments, we live in a low-yield world. There's room for long rate to tick up without triggering a meltdown, but if they go high enough, look out below as stocks are repriced.

While we did have 4% inflation last year, it's expectations that set the long rate. The Fed can afford some inflation in the short run, as long as people don't start thinking it's here to stay. So far the jury's out on that; some commodity prices are looking toppy now, and with asset prices crashing and rents low the overall inflation rate may trend down.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are an idiot Keith. Your followers too. Because of all of the negative news you folks espouse, our economy is tanking. How do you folks live in a world of negativity? Why not think positive and good thoughts? But you folks seem to glee and want bad news. Shame on you.

January 18, 2008 2:49 PM<<

one man's truth is another man's idea of negativity. anytime someone searches for truth and discusses their findings, some will say that they are negative and rejoice in bad news. for you see, this is the mindset of many americans. they simply do not want to know truth, for many of them have built their castles on the sand and as the sea washes away these self imposed little fortresses, they shall be dragged kicking and screaming into reality. take the red pill boys. its the only way.

Anonymous said...

.


Anyone interested in a little chat about Amway?


I'll be waiting for your response



It can change your life!



World Wide Dream Maker



.

Anonymous said...

And they're off!! It's S&P in the lead followed by DOW and NASDAQ bringing up the rear.

So much for the rebound...

Anonymous said...

For those who think the stock market will go back up, please state your reasons why? I am pessimistic.

US stocks appear cheap right now because P/E ratios are at or slightly below the historic average, and in comparison with the absurdly low interest rates on long-dated treasuries, they are very cheap. Two problems, though. (1) the E in the P/E ratios is based on estimates of next year's earnings that pretty much everyone thinks need to be revised downward - ergo, P/Es will rise if P stays where it is now. (2) the rates on long-dated treasuries are low, and can't go much lower without producing a negative yield versus inflation. They only have one way to go from here, and that's up. If TPTB can't manage to keep interest rates flat, rising long-term rates would force stocks to be repriced downward; a stock share is a claim on future earnings of a company, and those future earnings would be discounted at a higher rate (because a dollar of earnings 5 years from now is not worth a dollar of earnings this year).

All that said, studies show the market cannot be consistently timed. They also show that in the long run (i.e. over decades) stocks provide a better return than bonds, cash, real estate, or commodities. The long run can be very long though, longer than most people's investment time horizon. People who bought the S&P 500 in 2000 are still waiting to be made whole in inflation-adjusted terms 8 years later. In the great 70s bear people had to wait 10-15 years to recover, in the 30s it was 20-25 years. Of course, those who bought at the bottom(s) did well much sooner.

There are some interesting differences now versus those bears. In the 30s there was massive deflation and cash was king. In the 70s there was massive inflation, stocks swooned, long-dated bonds crashed as interest rates rose, hard assets were king, gold soared, real estate soared, people with low fixed-rate mortgages paid them back with cheap dollars, banks were clobbered, and interest rates on short-dated instruments like CDs and treasuries were high. So here we are, real estate is crashing and interest rates on both short-dated and long-dated risk-free assets are plummeting, while commodity prices have been rising, and the dollar is tanking meaning even cash isn't going to be king for long. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. Meanwhile world-wide GDP is in a long-term uptrend as the developing world, well, develops. This is the most challenging and interesting environment I've ever seen or studied.

Anonymous said...

whats next? Frank moves back to scottsdale and buys a house in D.C. ranch in 2009 and realizes his shattered dream of his pervious stay here - the ability to hold his head high among the other shallow posers that moved here from cali!

he he

MassBubbleGirl said...

"Boy I hope so. I am sick to death of political correctness. If liberalism finally dies, we can't a chance to speak honestly at last."

Why are you blaming the liberals? I don't get this blog sometimes. I LOVE this blog and I was calling the stupid-ass housing bubble back in 2004, but I'm a liberal. As far as I see, this mess is about American corporate greed and I blame the fucking Republican, corporate ass-licking fuckheads. I hate REpublicans and right-wingers. What you don't get is there are more liberal-minded, independent-spirited, fiscally responsible people out there. Republicans are selfish, inward looking, individualistic dickwads who were cheering this real estate la-la land. I'm sure most corporate idiots who came up with CDO, SIVs and "let's get homeownership up to 100%" through very lucrative subprime, ARM, I/O loans, were Republicans. How can you even put down liberals at this point when the last 7 years have been pure hell with the Republicans at the helm and quite frankly, Republicans have been at the helm since the so called "Republican Revolution with Newty" in 1994. You can go fuck yourselves for me. You and Fox News are the disgrace to this country. You all remind me of when Spain was under a dictatorship from 1936 until 1976: propaganda, everything for the homeland, etc., state-sponsored news (Faux News), state-sponsored morals. Who are you kidding with "oh the liberals are to blame for everything"? Get a life. We all know that 9/11 happened because of the Republicans (at least Clinton read the memos and tried to bomb Al-Quaeda but was put down by Republicans saying he was trying to distract America from the Monica Lewinsky blow job case)

By the way, i'm not a Democrat either; I'm an Independent with common sense who doesn't follow any one's party line/platform.

Anonymous said...

Thanks to anonymous for the summary on the future of the stock market. Hard to call at this point in time. I will continue to sit out for the time being.

califrothnia said...

5 steps to dealiing with the truth include (in order): denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. In light of our current events i.e. floundering companies buying other floundering companies, pseudo-stimulus packages, fake cpi numbers, etc., I gotta go with we're only now at the bargaining stage, which translates to just a bit more than halfway down. And the second half is much quicker and more painful. Heck, Haiti thinks we've become a third world country!

Anonymous said...

The Zionists along with the Secret Society will come up with another bubble and phony war to make money. Oh, and the New World Order will continue on track.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Bullshit. I'm so sick and tired of hearing this garbage about health care being too expensive. I pay $153 a month for my coverage with a maximum out of pocket of $1500 a year. It is tax deductible since I'm self employed so after tax cost is about $110. That means the most I will pay in any year is about $2500 assuming the worst.

Instead of bitching to Hillary that you can't afford health care, how about getting rid of cable? Or getting rid of the cell phone? Or not eating out every night? Or instead of a $700 BMW lease you buy a Honda Civic for $250 a month? Or instead of the $400 jeans how about getting the $50 jeans? And on and on.


Agreed, my friend. I'm so goddamn sick and tired of hearing this whining too. I pay about the same as you for health insurance (for a GOOD plan), and most of these crybaby whiners and looters who demand free healthcare are spending more than $150/month at frigging Starbucks.

Anonymous said...

BUT - here's the clincher: I'm in a business that companies tend to ignore when times are good, then come running to for help when times are BAD.

--------------------

Save your money, bro. Bec when the PPT rights the boat with unhuman strenght, dont be caught driving the H2 on Double Dubs!

Anonymous said...

We need more time to get a few more suckers in the market before the real pain happens.

IL guys says don't vote for Obama said...

-8. Hillary wins the election, republicans win the senate



Negative. All blue all the way. And we will regret it. Look at what an all blue State like Illinois is doing to itself.

Our mass transit system is a financial disaster. Instead of speaking the truth and tightening belts, what does the Demo leadership (**the people that created and are pushing Obama on us**) are doing? They turn even more socialist.

To pass ...er, force thru the transit funding bill the Demo Gov adds a rider GIVING FREE MASS TRANSIT RIDES TO SENIOR CITIZENS! But, wait the funding is off right so how the hell can you give free rides to anyone??

They are adding more TAXES. Chicago has a thing called a transfer tax. It is basically a tax on the transfer of a property deed to one party to another. X amount of the sales price / 1000. Well, "X" is now going up. Hurting the Chi RE market more.

Aldermen have six months to hold up their end of the bargain by approving a 40 percent increase in Chicago's real estate transfer tax, from $7.50 to $10.50 per $1,000 of sale price.

Please do not let Obama and his handlers get their mits on the WH. Vote for anyone else.

Anonymous said...

Mammoth said...

What comes next?

A big market rebound before the next leg down...

January 18, 2008 3:43 PM<<

bear market rally to suck in all of the chumps that went to cash and safety and then the pumpers tell them to come back and so they do and then they get stung, just like the 1929 crash..

Anonymous said...

The great depression started in 1929 and was at it worst in 1933.
The average American including MSM didn't realize we were in a depression or even a bad recession until late 1933. It took over 4 years into the worst economic time in our history for anybody living through it to recognize. The depression lasted another 8 years after people finally got the message (1941)

Anonymous said...

ed... just get sick and listed as having a preexistent condition once...................

Anonymous said...

to happy homedebtor with the house in wifes name...she just ran off to diddle the pool boy..................smartly

Happy Homedebtor said...

You lose money long-term by panicking and not sticking to your guns. If you consistently and gradually invest over time, you won't get slaughtered or rich - you'll do quite well. IE if the market is plummeting for a year, you just smile and nod and keep investing at a gradual pace. Could you make potentially alot more at bottom? Sure, but what are the odds? Also, pulling out your previous money could be done the day before a recovery.

Timing markets is a fool's game, just keep your investment strat slow and steady, and you'll win in the end. ;) Beyond that, I'm still trying to get my rear seat back in my car properly - stupid amplifiers are pushing against the cushioning. :(

k.w. - southern, ca. said...

Bullox - youre definitely part of smaller and smaller group of people in this country that think healthcare coverage and costs are fine.

Healthcare in this country is way over-rated, and for far too many in this country it is far too expensive.

It's one of the big reasons why many people (even with good paying professions) have gone into debt, and there's no reason except for pure greed withih our healthcare institutions - on all levels.

When it comes to out-patient care, it gets even more expensive and worse - just ask some of our young returning soldiers, or the elderly who don't have any other option but to put their trust in strangers to care for them (often because their own children are too busy and selfish to even call or see them).

You and I may be able to afford our care at this time, but the country as a whole is in for some really nasty times ahead.

A good friend of mine, and physician, was shocked himself at how expensive and poor much of the care here is within many of our hospital facilities - especially the county clinics (where patients are often left untreated for hours before a doctor even sees them - a tap on the shoulder costing tax payers an easy $150.00).

My friend is licensed for all of Europe, so he doesn't understand the arrogance, along with an over-exaggerated sense of responsiblity and importance, that many doctors here (who are not trained nearly as well) seem to possess.

The AMA itself is in bed with their lobbiests to delay Univeral Healthcare - that is a fact that cannot be disputed, and it's many of our own physicians and hospital administrative executives who are behind this - they're afraid good health might break out, which means
less dollars in their pocket.

I'm sure someone like Ron Paul, who welcomes a better change in our healthcare system, is appauled as well by many of his fellow alumni on this subject.

We have a long way in this country to go before we have anything that resenbles decent care, at affordable rates, for the majority of US citizens.

You mentioned you are sick and tired of people complaining that healthcare is too expensive, well, be prepared to get sicker because more and more people across this country will start complaining as they lose their houses, jobs, 401k and pensions, and healthcare coverage.


Ed said...
"The cost of health care is going to keep millions from ever having a chance at retirement."

Bullshit. I'm so sick and tired of hearing this garbage about health care being too expensive. I pay $153 a month for my coverage with a maximum out of pocket of $1500 a year. It is tax deductible since I'm self employed so after tax cost is about $110. That means the most I will pay in any year is about $2500 assuming the worst.

Instead of bitching to Hillary that you can't afford health care, how about getting rid of cable? Or getting rid of the cell phone? Or not eating out every night? Or instead of a $700 BMW lease you buy a Honda Civic for $250 a month? Or instead of the $400 jeans how about getting the $50 jeans? And on and on.

But no it's easier to just complain and ask the government to provide things for you than make sacrifices.

January 18, 2008 12:46 PM

DaveO said...

"Because of all of the negative news you folks espouse, our economy is tanking. How do you folks live in a world of negativity? Why not think positive and good thoughts? But you folks seem to glee and want bad news. Shame on you."

I don't know if whoever posted this was being sarcastic, but nevertheless, how are housing prices returning to fundamental levels "bad news"? It may suck for people who counted on illusionary equity to finance their (dumb) asses, but having house prices set at the historic ratio of price to income is better in the long run.

Think of it this way. Let's say that automobiles quickly went up in price 10 times what they cost now (everything outside of autos staying at the same price). That would be great if you were an auto manufacturer, but would suck for the consumer. Now let's say that they went down to the price that they are now. That would suck if you were an auto manufacturer, but great for the consumer. Using your logic, the return in price to reasonable levels is "bad news".

foxwoodlief said...

"there is nothing new under the sun." A quote from the old testament.

Things always are cyclical and the truth always is in the middle. The worst of times/the best of times. I thought home prices were too high 7 years ago. I sold houses based on that principle and bought where the prices were reasonable. What did I learn? If I had kept those homes I bought even four years ago...they would still be worth more than I paid and the cost to own would still be more than to rent.

Yes, the market has finally corrected. How much driven by greed at the top? A lot...but the rich always skim the cream. They do it everyday in the currency markets and stock markets. They drive up and down prices making pennies of each exchange...but with millions invested so reap big profits everyday.

No one on this blog ever says what is reasonable. What does it cost to build. How does the price in an area compare to 1970, 1960, 1950, 1940...adjusted for inflation to buy or build. Even gold...wow, $900 an ounce....a surge...proves you're smart to buy gold...hogwash. Adjusted for inflation it would have to go to $2,000 to be as it was in the early 80s. A 2,000 car in the 70s...$20,000 today. A house that cost $25,000? $250,000....the truth is the real problem has been the American worker's wages...takes two incomes to equal what our dad's earned alone even in blue collar work.

My income has gone up 300% over the past 15 years...the cost of homes, doubled. Do I feel richer? No, my taxes have soared as well.

Many areas are now at the bottom. The same rule applies as you HPers used....when the waiter talks real estate and invests...the market has peaked. Now everyone is talking the crash...so will miss the time to buy. I've watched home prices in areas I thought I'd live for over ten years. Prices in Florida has plummetted to 2000 levels or below. Prices in parts of Phoenix, the same...and adjusted for inflation both aboved mention are below 2000 prices in real dollars.

Rents have risen....yes, you get bargains on empty homes to rent, but no incentive to live way out to save a few hundred with the cost of gas. Downtown? Prices going up for rent. Home prices, haven't fallen to 2004 levels. Markets within markets.

Japan, depression era America? both busts weren't the end of the world. Many got richer. Many lived well....if you had a job.

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile world-wide GDP is in a long-term uptrend as the developing world, well, develops. This is the most challenging and interesting environment I've ever seen or studied.


If your analysis is correct, then investing in the developing world is the answer. However, if the Western economies collapse, who will the developing world peddle their wares to? When the dollar falls hard enough, the foreigners have to start buying American assets or else risk having their FCR IOU notes dwindle away in bank vaults.

shtove said...

The only thing that would cause me more dismay than what's happening right now is an American military assault being beaten back, like the last time Israel went in to Lebanon.

Now, where's the likeliest place for that to happen?

devestment said...

Save your money, bro. Bec when the PPT rights the boat with unhuman strenght, dont be caught driving the H2 on Double Dubs!

We need more time to get a few more suckers in the market before the real pain happens.


This is still my bet as the plunge protection team will level the playing field and you will see the truly wealthy.

Anonymous said...

Brian said...

Collapse and government bailout of the bond insurers. This will be the big one.

Without bond insurance, bond valuations will drop and rates will rise accordingly. Neither will make the government happy.

The "big one" begins:

Ambac Insurance Loses AAA Ranking at Fitch Ratings (Update2)

By Christine Richard

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. became the first bond insurer to lose its AAA rating after Fitch Ratings downgraded the company.

http://tinyurl.com/37xmjw

Anonymous said...

Stagflation is already here.

Anonymous said...

Bernanke said the Fed isn't forecasting a recession this year, saying the US economy is "extraordinarily resilient."

"He's not being honest," says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Darien, Conn., brokerage firm. "If he doesn't see a recession, why is he advising we need a stimulus package?"

http://tinyurl.com/326qex

Anonymous said...

Median household income in this country is around $50,000. The average premium for a family health plan is $12,000 before any care has been delivered, or co-pays paid, or deductibles met. That's 24% of income. But nooooooooo, health care isn't too expensive because Ed and Frank are among the few remaining Americans who can still get an affordable health plan.

Get over yourselves, because as someone said, all that is going to change when you get sick, or have a family. You remind me of the FBs who couldn't see the reality of the housing market because it hadn't personally hit them over the head with a hammer yet. Heads up!

Anonymous said...

Stock market to 13,000 (sucker rally), then back to 11,500, then....the sheep that are not broke invest and lose their shirts. Except the rich will continue to skim the cream- pennies off each trade, sucking the sheep dry. You silly sheep.

Anonymous said...

Why are you blaming the liberals? I don't get this blog sometimes. I LOVE this blog and I was calling the stupid-ass housing bubble back in 2004, but I'm a liberal. As far as I see, this mess is about American corporate greed and I blame the fucking Republican, corporate ass-licking fuckheads. I hate REpublicans and right-wingers.

--

Fucknut, check out the biggest bubble cities.
SF Democrat
LA. Democrat
Sacramento Democrat
Las Vegas Democrat
Boston Democrat
DC Democrat

You see a pattern developing here?

Not convinced?

OK how about some more

NY. Democrat
Chicago Democrat
Seattle Democrat
Portland Democrat

It was the greed of liberals that caused this to happen. Simple country folks in rural Alabama didn't go and spend $800K on McMansion or buy H2 Hummers. That was done by liberal Democrats on the east and west coasts that you love so much.

Anonymous said...

Bullshit. I'm so sick and tired of hearing this garbage about health care being too expensive. I pay $153 a month for my coverage with a maximum out of pocket of $1500 a year.

Ladies & gentlemen, we have here another Kudlow who lives in a rosy bubble, and who can't understand why anyone else in the country can't get a job with decent benefits, like health insurance, for instance.

I want you to get really sick, but with a badass rare disease or accident that requires a surgeon from Harvard and long term care just to see if your insurance will pay for it.

Nice bubble you live in, idiot.

Anonymous said...

Fucknut, check out the biggest bubble cities.
SF Democrat
LA. Democrat
Sacramento Democrat
Las Vegas Democrat
Boston Democrat
DC Democrat


Nice try, republican fascist. But the biggest bubbles are in:

AZ - big time McCaine red state republican a$$holes

FL - Jeb Bush hick red state and Republican Cubano central.

Orange County - Disgusting Republican nest.

Nevada - Is totally Republican that voted for Bush twice. What are you talking about, republican fascist spinner?

BubbleGirl said...

Hey Fucknuck anonymous (coward) 9:53 pm

Angelo Mozilo - Republican
Greenspan - Republican
George W. Bush - Republican
Friends of mine who bought way beyond their means and built a McMansion that they now can't sell and they are wasting their two kids' college education money - Republican

I'll keep going on and on, I'm sure there are more...The blue states might have the biggest bubbles but it has nothing to do with their being majority "democrat", but rather because they are where there is more opportunity, not Alabama. By the way, if you were to look at statistics, the red states take way, way more government aid through welfare programs than the blue states...all those hicks who voted for God's candidates (Republicans).

One thing remains: "Liberals" are not to blame for this American greed, asswipe...you sound like Rush Limbaugh, you bitter "right winger"...why don't you go fight in Iraq against the so called "enemies"...19 Saudis attacked us on 9/11, idiot, but of course most right wingers don't know the difference between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

I do feel bad for the true Republicans because they did sell their libertarian and fiscally conservative souls to the Devil (religion) and now they have lost all credibility from these past 7 years for sure. You wanted supremacy because you were all bitter about "liberals" and you are all limping because you shot yourselves in both feet. Fools.

buttmunch said...

- The four major bond insurers lose AAA ratings then soon after go under, two in particular MBIA & Ambac will bring the house of cards down.

- With the banks hedges now worthless a big one will fall maybe more. I predict Citi (I doubt that there are too many more rich arabs willing to throw away $10 billion on this bullshit).

- The goverment will of course do something creative to make the blood bath worse, but I'm positive at first it will sound fancy & impressive to the legions of retards a.k.a. joe public, MSM and they will all go out to the Marts (WAL & K) and buy some more shiny crap that they must have for their trucks or their mantles.

buttmunch said...

- The four major bond insurers lose AAA ratings then soon after go under, two in particular MBIA & Ambac will bring the house of cards down.

- With the banks hedges now worthless a big one will fall maybe more. I predict Citi (I doubt that there are too many more rich arabs willing to throw away $10 billion on this bullshit).

- The goverment will of course do something creative to make the blood bath worse, but I'm positive at first it will sound fancy & impressive to the legions of retards a.k.a. joe public, MSM and they will all go out to the Marts (WAL & K) and buy some more shiny crap that they must have for their trucks or their mantles.

Anonymous said...

democrats = republicans

now repeat this a hundred times.

lesson learned.


President Abraham Lincoln said.. "The money power preys upon the nation in times of peace and conspires against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy.

its the moneylenders. they are the real reason this crap is going on.

Anonymous said...

The blue states might have the biggest bubbles but it has nothing to do with their being majority "democrat", but rather because they are where there is more opportunity

More opportunity in Michigan? You're dumber than a box of rocks. The fastest growing economies now are Texas, Tennessee and North Carolina.

Anonymous said...

We need more time to get a few more suckers in the market before the real pain happens.


There is no more dumb money to go in the market. J6P is tapped out and will begin the withdraws from the 401k and IRA soon. The smart money is getting out before J6P empties his retirement accounts.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about you folks but I'm looking into buying some ramen vending machines. They're big in japan and my guess is they'll soon be big here. People HAVE to eat.

Anonymous said...

Mexico bubble

BubbleGirl said...

The blue states might have the biggest bubbles but it has nothing to do with their being majority "democrat", but rather because they are where there is more opportunity

More opportunity in Michigan? You're dumber than a box of rocks. The fastest growing economies now are Texas, Tennessee and North Carolina.

January 18, 2008 10:53 PM
***********************************
Dear Another Anon coward,
Um, I was referring to the other fucknut who gave the following examples as the biggest bubbles:
"Fucknut, check out the biggest bubble cities.
SF Democrat
LA. Democrat
Sacramento Democrat
Las Vegas Democrat
Boston Democrat
DC Democrat"

I don't know what the hell you are talking about w/ TX, NC & the other non-consequential state you referred to. Michigan was not mentioned in the above list of bubble cities.

Ed said...

" Anonymous said...
Median household income in this country is around $50,000. The average premium for a family health plan is $12,000 before any care has been delivered, or co-pays paid, or deductibles met. That's 24% of income."


Well then stop fucking having kids if you can't afford to buy insurance for them. Since when did it become my (Mr.Taxpayer) responsibility to take care of YOUR kids? Stop popping out baby after baby if you can't take care of the damn things.

And where do you ge this $12K gibberish? Go to ehealthinsurance.com and you'll see plans for $400ish a month with $1000 or so annual deductible for a family of 4.

My point still remains. All those McMansion ingabitants with brand new cars, plasma TVs, $200 sneakers on their kids' feet are the same whiny fucks complaining about expensive health care.

I never see poor people complain about health insurance since they get it fro free through medicaid. It's always middle class people trying to live an upper middle class life that complain.

As Frank said, some of these mrons spend $150 on Starbucks every month and then whine to Hillary about how they can't make ends meet. Well here's some advice. Stop paying $5 for a cup of coffee and you too will afford health care without me subsidizing it for you.

This country is heading to ruin with attitudes like yours.

debtisslavery.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Fucknut, check out the biggest bubble cities.
SF Democrat
LA. Democrat
Sacramento Democrat
Las Vegas Democrat
Boston Democrat
DC Democrat

Nice try, republican fascist. But the biggest bubbles are in:

AZ - big time McCaine red state republican a$$holes

FL - Jeb Bush hick red state and Republican Cubano central.

Orange County - Disgusting Republican nest.

Nevada - Is totally Republican that voted for Bush twice. What are you talking about, republican fascist spinner?

------------------------------

Yea right since Ely, Nevada was the cause of the bubble. Shmuck, cities vote Dem, rural areas vote Rep. Las Vegas, Phoenix, L.A., Miami, Tampa all votes Dem and always vote Dem. That is where the bubbles happened not out in the sticks where the Rep votes come from.

Anonymous said...

Ed you're an idiot, and you couldn't be more wrong. It's selfish people like YOU, who only care about themselves, that are ruining this country. It's quite obvious you think the problems that others are experiencing with health care can't happen to you just because they haven't happened yet, just like the moron FBs, so thanks for proving my point.

I have one child FYI, and I can afford our insurance just fine, but many people can't. It costs just as much to insure a family of 3 as it does a family of 10. And here's where I got "that gibberish": Health Premiums Rise 6.1%; Average Family verage Costs $12,000 right from a September 2007 Insurance Journal report, but it's the same number that has been WIDELY reported in the last year.

I'm not sure how you arrived at the conclusion that you as a taxpayer will be paying for my family's health care, since I pay taxes as well. It's quite obvious you don't have the slightest clue about how the insurance industry actually operates beyond your limited experience, or just how difficult it can be to get an affordable policy for numerous reasons that are usually BEYOND AN INDIVIDUAL'S CONTROL.

When I hear about sick people who are dying because they can't afford to see a doctor, I as a human being feel compassion, sadness and a desire to help. You, however, seem to feel the need to kick people when they are down and blame them for all of their own problems. People WITH insurance are being driven to bankruptcy due to the outrageous cost of health care in this country, for crying out loud!

Unforeseen sh*t happens in life that you can't possibly plan for, and if you think it can't happen to you, you are delusional. Here's hoping that "bubble" you live in never bursts.

Anonymous said...

If your analysis is correct, then investing in the developing world is the answer. However, if the Western economies collapse, who will the developing world peddle their wares to? When the dollar falls hard enough, the foreigners have to start buying American assets or else risk having their FCR IOU notes dwindle away in bank vaults.

That's true - it should be clear just looking at world-wide stock indexes that the "decoupling" theory is rubbish. Bottom line, I don't believe the west will "collapse". Could world GDP go down in the short term? Sure, but that's not the question. The question is, where do you think it will be 5, 10, or 20 years from now?

deep dish w/3-toppings said...

RE: MONOKE

RE:"Oh but didn't Bush and Bernanke and Paulson keep reiterating over and over and over again (all of last year) to the citizens of the United States of America that, "We have a sound economy, everything is GREAT!"
*********************************

Yes thats true! Although they said that last month too.

Anonymous said...

I no longer enjoy almonds.

Anonymous said...

When I hear about sick people who are dying because they can't afford to see a doctor,

Everyone can afford to see a doctor. Just go down to county hospital. You can sit there with the 500 illegal immigrants in the waiting room for 12 hours. That's how it will be like with Hitlary's nationalized system or whatever they want to call it now.

Anonymous said...

I read stupid quotes like this:

"I'm still trying to get my rear seat back in my car properly - stupid amplifiers are pushing against the cushioning. :("

-

"Hey cool a little somethin' somethin' in my pocket so you say. Not so fast there. If you are "rich" you don't qualify. This is a tax rebate for the low lives of society. Why should Jorge give a tax rebate on the people who, like, uhm, you know, pay all the taxes? No, instead the checks will be sent to those who contribute nothing to society and leech off those who do. If you make $20K, pay nothing in taxes, get food stamps, get free medicaid and god knows what else from the gubermint you're in luck. Uncle Jorge is sending you a $1600 check so you can buy yourself a new plasma for the trailer to go along with the Elvis commemorative plate set."

===================================

Comments like the above only confirm the greed and self-centeredness of many typical "middle class" Americans (those above the $40,000 per year income bracket, I'm sure). Not all, but many. I would like to see how these people feel having to live on disability, while being kicked around by people already on the lowest rung of the employment and wage ladder (Wal-Mart greeters, for example).

I'll be honest. It is not my fault that I can't obtain a $120,000.00 per year job as an airline pilot. Nor is it my fault that my disability prevents me from getting an $80,000.00 per year accountant. Let alone, a "low wage" janitor job that brings $20,000.00. Twenty grand a year, man, that's RICH and WEALTHY to us "low life scum"!

I don't want a $1,600.00 from the "gubernmint" (properly spelled "government"). I don't necessarily want an increase in food stamps either. What I DO want, however, is a reduction in food inflation and energy costs, so I can pay the bills with what I have instead of beg others for help. Along with opportunities to better myself and improve my living conditions. But, the greedy "tax payers" and government officials have nothing better to do than KICK the less fortunate like me in the NUTS. I'm not stupid. And no, I'm not married and don't have kids so I'm not a "breeder".

I say this to the "upper crust" folks: be thankful that some of your tax dollars are going to help the poor with food and a place to live. Because there is nothing more dangerous than 50 million angry, starving people with nothing to lose.

Anonymous said...

"When I hear about sick people who are dying because they can't afford to see a doctor, I as a human being feel compassion, sadness and a desire to help."

Not me. I see hordes of illegal alien felon invaders killing my country and my hospitals and my cities. I am gleeful almost euphoric when I hear they died. The more the better. At least they will no longer produce anchor children to weigh us down with.

Put a bounty on all illegal immigrants. You can either take a tax credit or cash payment for all the illegals you bring in.

Cash for illegals. A concept whose time has COME. Do It Now.

Ed said...

Anon 12:26 you must be the most gullible human being alibe. Did you read this at the bottom?

"This survey is a joint project of the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust. A research team at Kaiser and HRET conducted and analyzed the survey, led by Gary Claxton, vice president and director of the Health Care Marketplace Project at Kaiser, and Jon Gabel, senior fellow at the National Opinion Research Center"

This so-called study is nothing more than a PR release by far-left wing groups who lobby for government run health care. People with low intelligence such as yourself fall for this garbage and then go crying to Hillary that wahh wahh wahh I need government funded health insuarance.

And who out there is dying beacause they can't see a doctor? Point to one example where someone died because they couldn't see a doctor due to money. You are so full of shit once again. Every hospital in the land has to by law provide care to anyone who shoes up, whether or not they can pay. How do you think the 20 million illegals get their health care?

It is people like you that have destroyed this once great nation. Whenever you have a problem instead of fixing it, you goandrun to the nearest government agency and cry for them to help.

You truly make me sick.

Ed said...

"But, the greedy "tax payers" and government officials have nothing better to do than KICK the less fortunate like me in the NUTS. I'm not stupid. And no, I'm not married and don't have kids so I'm not a "breeder".

Greedy tax payers? I'm greedy for wanting to keep MY money for myself? You have some nerve you ungrateful fuck.

I work my ass off. The gubermint steals a third of my money. The gubermint takes that money and gives it to you, so you can lay around the couch eating bonbons all day long and watching Oprah. And yet you complain that this system is sowehow unfair to you and you demand even more.

You are a stain on humanity. You contribute nothing. You produce nothing. All you do is take, yet give nothing back. You are a human parasite and you and others like you are slowly killing the host.

Anonymous said...

It's not really necessary to point out that Ed is an idiot. It is apparent every time he opens his mouth.

ed said...

Being called an idiot by liberal imbeciles like you is an honor. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

YEN WILL GO UP (inverse carry trade) GOLD WILL GO UP (even the pound is trash now) COMMODITIES WILL RALLY MORE (Asia story is new to the planet, most people still dont get it)......I've seen 4 recessions and have lived in Asia for many years...there you go

Anonymous said...

Hey Ed, what are you doing hanging around this blog? Aren't you late for a Klan meeting or somethin'?

Anonymous said...

Mexico bubble

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080120/mexico_housing.html