January 18, 2008

The Fed is going to take rates to 0% to try to get us out of this clusterf*ck. So what's the next bubble?

1) Gold
2) Commodities
3) Stocks
4) Houses & Land
5) Euros
6) Ramen & Popcorn
7) Riots and Crime
8) Other ________
9) We're out of bubbles

84 comments:

Anonymous said...

=
=
=
=
gold is in a bubble about to burst

I wouldn't be so sure that Bernanke is going to do what you keep saying he's going to do.

If he was so hell bent on cutting he would have cut this week.

I'm starting to think he may actually have a pair and will tell Wall St to fuck right off.

shaun said...

renewables and international

Anonymous said...

.
.
we're out of bubbles. seriously, the next thing to go pop is Mozilo's flabby chicken neck now that the Boomers are retiring and need to live off their retirement accounts and pension funds that are going to be totally wiped out by all this madness. he should move his arse to that man-made palm frond island community in the Middle East.

Anonymous said...

Politicians.

Magnum Force

Anonymous said...

Could be a soup line bubble or how about a chip implant bubble for complete Government control and don't forget riot control equipment bubble.

Mark in San Diego said...

I have only one thing to say - BANK OF JAPAN. . .they lowered rates to Zero with NO effect whatsoever for 15 years!!!

goldenticker said...

Gold is the next bubble as investors lose all faith in g7 "paper" currencies. They are all in "cahoots" together and will look the other way on inflation to keep their consumer societies spending. Gold is the third currency and will soon be the #1. I'm look for further hoarding of food and oil as well.

mhrist said...

9 and 8. We are out of bubbles, a new way of life.

Marty

Anonymous said...

Natural gas.

GT said...

shhh
american idol is on
no riots til after that

Anonymous said...

Crime already starting in the Mexican infested areas like Arizona and Cali

Anonymous said...

Strippers

Anonymous said...

Silver and Gold!

Anonymous said...

"gold is in a bubble about to burst"

by what measures. rates are being lowered and they are starting to hand out cash. gold is still less than 50% of it's inflation adjusted high reached almost 30 years ago.

gold is not a bubble.

Anonymous said...

9) We're out of bubbles

You need cash to buy Gold, Currencies, and Commodities.

I suppose you *could* buy them on credit, but unlikely.

Anonymous said...

Vegas casino bubble.

Anonymous said...

gold will correct from time to time but it will keep going up in price. there is no other place of safety if you think about it. it is a currency in and of itself. gold will in the coming months and days ,decouple from the old tired excuse of being a reciprocal of inflation. it will continue to go up in price as supply and demand come into play, no matter what else is going on. as people try to flee the coming gbobal depression. they will remember a place of safety that they always knew about but never really understood and that is physical gold and silver. now you combine that with some raised bed gardening, your own water well, alternative energy sources, some goats, some road island red chickens and plenty of lead and you will do just fine....this is what we are doing slowly but surely down here in south central texas. to be sure, let it be known, that this area resembles chechnya in many ways geographically. that comment is for any of the rogue cops and or national guard pricks that think they want to be heroes or perhaps some dipstick united nation types that might be reading this blog. friends, this is what is coming. and for you uniformed useful idiots. don't think for a minute that it will easy going for you down here. the hills are honeycombed with death for you and all those who you serve....

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Strippers

January 18, 2008 11:45 PM<<

que?

you mean all the realtwhores going to work stripping? ha ha..

BondsOfSteel said...

Tulips?

Anonymous said...

The BoJ policy worked perfectly. It blew the biggest bubble ever. Central banks don't operate independently.

Anonymous said...

FREE MONEY FROM THE FED BUBBLE!

Coke adds life said...

High capacity magazines for firearms. With the Dems coming back, those will be on the hit list for the first four years of the next regime.

Seriously though, bonds could be in a bubble now given inflation and the default risk.

Coke Out!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Crime already starting in the Mexican infested areas like Arizona and Cali

January 18, 2008 11:41 PM<<<

because we have allowed this balkinization of the states to happen, we shall now pay the price for being selfish and self deluded and not being good knowledgeable citizens.

g said...

number nine...number nine....number nine....

g said...

number nine...number nine....number nine....

Anonymous said...

"Here is the new boss...same as the old boss..."

Next bubble to burst: UK, Oz, Eastern Europe, and other international housing bubbles, which are 6-12 months behind the USA.

Already bursting: emerging markets, especially India and China.

Looking toppy - commodities, especially gold and oil.

Down the road: ethanol and related ag bubble (next president reverses the current idiotic food-for-fuel program).

Mark in San Diego said...

Just watched the 13 minute Jim Cramer video on CNBC web site. . .he is so spot on - instead of giving people $500 - bail out the AMBAC, etc. . . would cost less. . .should we at HP support this or do we really want a 1929 collapse of the system? It is the question to ponder this weekend. . .be careful what we ask for.

I admit that I am a Puritanical Prig, and part of me wants a meltdown that will end the credit lifestyle once and for all. . .but the price we all will pay will be severe. . .I don't have the answer.

Anonymous said...

When the rates go to zero, the US will be the victim of the "carry trade", with massive borrowing of free 0% money from the Fed going overseas.

The next bubble to burst is radical free-market capitalism.

ZZwcck said...

The next bubble is always building while the current bubble is in place in the Greenspan world. Based on that I'm leaning towards the obvious one being Health Care. In the event Mitt Romney somehow wins this election it will be mandatory health care for all. If Hillary or Obama wins then it's going to be a single payer system and look the hell out. In either case the double digit increases in health are going to be on multiples of 10% rather than the 15%.

There's my guess.

Anonymous said...

BASEBALL CARD BUBBLE!! Stock up on Ricky Henderson and Ken Griffey Jr. Rookie cards while they are cheap!!

Anonymous said...

Ramen as people start to hoard

Anonymous said...

Wall St bonuses

BigDaddy63 said...

Time to sell gold, silver, oil, real estate, etc. Deflation is here. Time to buy the long end of the curve and cash.

Anonymous said...

Gold is already a bubble and didn't the government once have limitations on ownership of gold? It's coming again - GUARANTEED. They are just sheparding everyone where they want for the slaughter to come

edd said...

Silver, copper, and nickel.
Gold is not so crucial; its value
is largely a consensus 'foam',
beyond that used in electronics.

Vapor and molten-spray deposition
will become a substitute in some
applications, so venture capital
might rush into that someday.

Copper will be a real precious metal.
They are going to extremes to
find and mine it already.

There will be a flood of capital
into scientific knowledge as the
real resource for a scary future.

Anonymous said...

OK, so if an $800 rebate is a good idea, what is wrong with the idea of not taking the money from the taxpayers in the first place? Why not retroactively rebate all income taxes? Why is $800 the number?

Anonymous said...

Mark from San Diego :

I have had the same thoughts you have
had on being constructive about bail outs .As I see it ,the only bail outs should be to FDIC to reward savers ,otherwise we won't be able to get people to put money in banks in the future.

If the world goes into recession or depression ,there isn't a lot of safe havens. I think that if one keeps a job during a recession they are doing good. Some people say recessions are a good time to go back to college .

Anonymous said...

Fertilizer!

LauraVella said...

Gold will be the next bubble however it wont burst for another five years.

Meanwhile, we will have an explosion of crime, it's already beginning to happen.

Anonymous said...

"Flip this canvas?"

Roccman said...

Farmland

Anonymous said...

Beanie Babies are the big thing. Please buy my book at Amazon.com:

Are You Missing the Beanie Baby Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Beanie Baby Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them

Anonymous said...

Riots and Crime bubble will peak in 2011 followed by a deep crime recession with jails renting out rooms

Princess Mononoke said...

***Gold*** A little further down the road. The commodities dealer's have been on a broker/agen recruiting frenzy! They need help handling the volume.

Anonymous said...

The issue is, if they bail out Ambak, they will have to bail out many others.

Where does it stop. I think we should take it for what it is and let whatever will happen, happen. Once its over with, we'll be better off.

Anonymous said...

I won't need to pay any price in the case of a meltdown.

I have guns and gold. I would be crammer's master. What is the problem?

ugh said...

ammo

Anonymous said...

There are no more bubbles. We are about to hit a deflationary period where all assets lose value.

Short everything and get into a foreign currency.

smitty said...

"commodities," privatization of k/12 education, privatization of roads (tolls galore) and a carbon tax.

Anonymous said...

dog house!!!!

the beatles said...

#9

We done

Anonymous said...

Gold won't crash until Time Ragazine shows a yuppie or Boomer hugging a gold bar on it's cover!

As long a BB is going to dump rates and as long as the US debt keeps going up, so will Gold.

Anonymous said...

gold pops then the rich get an interest rate bubble.

Anonymous said...

Definitely gold, silver, and metals. Specuvestors and hedge funds are gonna get whacked.

Anonymous said...

The next bubble?

Ammo.

Anonymous said...


Comments - Show Original Post
Collapse comments

Anonymous said...
....
gold is in a bubble about to burst
.....

January 18, 2008 11:07 PM


Apparently you don't understand what a bubble IS.

Maybe 1 person in 100 owns gold bullion.

Versus the 40-50% that 'own'(rent from a bank) a house.

When the shoe shine boy starts talking about mining stocks THEN get back to me about a bubble.

Idiot.

Anonymous said...

Next Bubble? I'd say Fishing Rods and Live Worms.

Anonymous said...

Mortgage Company Exec Jumps to Death

Source: San Francisco Chronicle-(AP)

Friday, January 18, 2008

(01-18) 17:20 PST Marlton, N.J. (AP) --
An executive of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender jumped to his death from a bridge Friday, shortly after his wife's body was found inside their New Jersey home, authorities said.

Prosecutor Robert Bernardi said Evesham Township police went to the couple's home in the Marlton section of the township around noon after a male caller asked them to check on Marci Buczynski. Her body was found in a bedroom.

Walter Buczynski was a vice president of Columbia, Md.-based Fieldstone Mortgage Co., a high-flying subprime mortgage lender that made $5.5 billion in mortgage loans and employed about 1,000 people as late as 2006.

However, it has since filed for bankruptcy and now has fewer than 20 employees. The company had recently filed court papers seeking approval to pay about $1.1 million in bonuses that would be divided among Buczynski and other staffers so the company could wind down its lending operations and go out of business.

Anonymous said...

"The crash is just getting started" Sound familiar? With most people close to 100% LTV, late night infomercials and books still talking about RE, the majority of the people have not made the leap as of yet(otherwise there would be real panic). If rates were to return to 1% soon, this would re-inflate housing. Many would say "that was close", "the guv will save me again" or "next time I will play smarter". It will be back to biz as usual. If you think things look bad now, just wait.

Anonymous said...

Eric Janzten (sp?) at iTulip argues that "alternative energy" will be the next bubble, and his argument has a lot going for it. Apparently it was in Harper's mag.

Anonymous said...

POP!

Mortgage Company Exec Jumps to Death
Friday, January 18, 2008
http://tinyurl.com/2shk5b

Anonymous said...

Gold won't be a bubble as long as there's rampant inflation and an unsafe world. Check, check.

Anonymous said...

Next bubbles will be emerging markets stocks and housing bubble in emerging markets.

Anonymous said...

An executive of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender jumped to his death from a bridge Friday, shortly after his wife's body was found inside their New Jersey home, authorities said.

Good. Another 20,000 to go. Imagine how the air will become much cleaner without all these weasels around.

I'm glad that the crook Tobias was found dead on the pool, too.

psyber said...

green tech/alternative energy

Anonymous said...

*** THE NEXT BUBBLES ARE ****

Aguculture
Copper
Lead

Gold is getting ready to pop

Copper is already needed more and more

LauraVella said...

Princess Mononke said:"***Gold*** A little further down the road. The commodities dealer's have been on a broker/agen recruiting frenzy! They need help handling the volume."


Funny you mention this. I'm sure they're very busy...not to mention numerous all the new 'Buy or Sell Your Gold' websites that have sprung up recently.

Anonymous said...

The next bubble to burst is government services...

1. Education
2. Health Care
3. Military and Police

Tax revenues from property, income, sales, and capital gains are all plummeting. This is already happening in California.

1. Schools and universities will have government spending slashed as states will not have extra money to pay for them. Education is worthless anyways since most of the skilled labor jobs have moved to China and India.

2. Health Care will largely be deregulated. Nurses and 2nd tier health care workers will have wages slashed.

3. Military, police, and prison spending will be slashed as there is no money to pay for them.

Shakster said...

Mark in San Diego said...
Just watched the 13 minute Jim Cramer video on CNBC web site. . .he is so spot on - instead of giving people $500 - bail out the AMBAC, etc. . . would cost less. . .should we at HP support this or do we really want a 1929 collapse of the system? It is the question to ponder this weekend. . .be careful what we ask for.

I admit that I am a Puritanical Prig, and part of me wants a meltdown that will end the credit lifestyle once and for all. . .but the price we all will pay will be severe. . .I don't have the answer.
---------------------------

YUP.

Anonymous said...

There probably won't be another bubble since access to credit simply won't be available to most people.

Gold, and possibly other precious metals (PMs), may soon look like they are in a bubble however this will simply not be the case. IMHO, a fraction of the worlds wealth moving into PMs will propel their prices into the stratosphere.

If you think $900.00/oz for gold is high then you will be shocked at $9,000.00/oz and awed at $90,000/oz. Don't think it can't happen as there are simply too few safe havens to dilute the volume of fiat currency/ficticious capital currently in circulation.

Just wait until there is physical shortage/non-delivery of gold or silver. This is when the 'owners' of ETFs get their moment of reckoning as they try to exchange their paper certificates for the physical equivalents only to find that it simply does not exist.

TPTB are now running scared as they realize that things are rapidly coming apart. The one thing that has always made the USA appear 'safe' is our stability.

That stability was simply a reflection of the fact that the majority of people were getting what they wanted and lived comfortably. Soon the majority of people in the USA will not be comfortable. This will, not may, lead to instability. How bad that instabilty gets remains to be seen.

Anonymous said...

oil

It will be fuiled by peak supply....it won't get seriously recognized until we pull out of this recession...and it will pop will introduction of viable alternatives in tech

Anonymous said...

Next Bubble:

CARBON TRADING.

It does not matter who is elected President. The population has already been molded and will ask/demand it.

Anonymous said...

If rates were to return to 1% soon, this would re-inflate housing.

That won't help unless the liars loans come back. Even when the FFR was 1% the average mortgage rates were still above 4.5%

Budvar said...

Roccman said...Farmland

I don't see this, farmland needs to be worked, you can't just leave it there doing nothing. Check out any piece of land left for over a year, it ends up full of weeds, thistles, dock etc. There's a saying in horticultural circles, 1 years weeds, 7 years seeds. If you're buying to work the land you have to buy all the tractors, ploughs, harvesters and they're all big buck items and cost more than the land. Thats OK if you're spreading the cost over 10 years, but for short term not worth it.

Adam Slowhand Smith said...

Next bubble?

I dunno: Lladro and Hummel figurines? Collectibles have always been good candidates, as they're made in limited amounts, and are meaningless trinkets that people like to look at and require skill to counterfeit. Oooh, they're so cute, and at least they're not made of cloth (Beanie Babies). I predict massive Lladro shortages and riots by 2009. ;)

It reminds me of how the early colonists traded handful of beads with the natives to get the land that became Manhattan (New York).

As stated above, though, we need to RAISE interest rates, not lower them! This is exactly what Paul Volcker did in the 70's and 80's to burst a pesky bubble of the day, administering tough love to deal with inflation.

And FWIW, I don't blame Bernanke, who simply inherited the mess made by Greenspan...

Foggy-brained recovered alcoholics like Bush want to play the populist card with this "Free Government Cheese" hand-out, catering to the sheeple to try and save his already-spoiled legacy. The only thing worse than an an out-of-control tax-and-spender is an out-of-control spender who doesn't want to tax with one hand, while tapping into the till with the other!

I say raise the rates, and screw the borrowers who took out ARMs banking on the financial world's equivalent of a perpetual-motion machine (AKA guaranteed appreciation), while running up their credit cards to the hilt. They didn't REALLY think rates would stay low forever, did they?

Or did they not comprehend what the meaning of the word "ADJUSTABLE" means, in the phrase, "ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGE" (ARM)? Yup, it moves around and up-and-down.

So why exactly should we sacrifice our country's economy for the sake of those idiots who over-extended themselves? Borrowers took out loans for homes they NEVER could've afforded under traditional lending rules, in the first place.

All I want is for some of these people to get the hell out of MY future house (I have great credit, and a good job), and the sooner, the better!

Owner Earnings said...

#7 (Bullets and Guns)

Ben Franklin said...

If rates were to return to 1% soon, this would re-inflate housing.

That won't help unless the liars loans come back. Even when the FFR was 1% the average mortgage rates were still above 4.5%


Yup, exactly right. Interest rates haven't mattered in the decision to buy, except in the earliest days of the boom.

Since 2003, the stimulus to the price run-up was actually the lending terms and loose credit, with all the exotic loan devices (neg-am, stated, NINJA, liar loans, etc) being used.

In fact, these late-to-the-party buyers really didn't CARE about interest rates (or artifically-inflated house prices), as much as the familiar question, "how low can you make my monthly payment"? As a result, all they cared about was getting shoe-horned into a house, regardless of the costs (or if they could afford it in the long run).

A great example is a friend who "bought" a small place in L.A. for $650k, using a 7 (seven) year I/O loan! Ridiculous, ain't it?

That's basically a permanent renter's loan, as there's no way in hell the house will continue to appreciate to the point that she could EVER pay down the principal (and hence build equity), as she can hardly keep up with the interest only portion, as it it!

That's truly a loan for losers, or one for financial idiots...

Meanwhile, the broker has earned his commission on the front and back-end, and I doubt this buyer even realizes the depth to which she was screwed for the sake of a hefty commish.

Mac10 said...

The next bubble will be in FEAR.

There will be no more asset-based bubbles, as deflation is on its way:

http://ponziworld.blogspot.com/2008/01/deflation-vs-inflation-vs-both.html

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately the next bubble could be religion. People seek things to believe in during hard times.

Anonymous said...

ALL COMMODITIES...........................................................................start reading about the commodity super cycle (jim rogers, marc faber, etc).......................ASIAN STOCK MARKETS.....this blog did well reading about the housing crash and peak oil...start expanding your book list

Anonymous said...

Bed mattresses! For more than one reason!

socalchris said...

aren't ramen and popcorn commodities?

Budvar said...

Throws $800 on the store counter saying "A dozen cases of beer, 5 sleeves of cigarettes, oh and I'll take the rest in lottery tickets"

Anonymous said...

.


Firewood
Cigarettes
beer.....alcohol
guns n ammo
gasoline
KY jelly
porn



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