December 27, 2007

Want to know why the government's employment numbers are bullsh*t?


Because the millions of REIC jobs that have gone away simply don't count.

The mortgage brokers and agents, all the illegal Mexican builders, the hundreds of thousands of ramen eating realtors, the appraisers, the roofers, the title agents - none of 'em count according to the government. They didn't count on the way up, when the Fed should have been trying to stop the bubble, and now they don't count on the way down, when it's too late.

Why don't they count?

Because they're not salaried employees. They're simply independent contractors and agents. Or were. Now they're just unemployed. And to add to the misery, they have no jobless benefits, they can't make their mortgage payments, and they have no employable skills.

Think we have a foreclosure problem now? Just wait. And remember, anything the government tells you these days is a lie.

Experts predict ugly 2008 as housing slump drags on

The housing slump stands to exact a sizable toll on the broader economy as jobs, retail spending and credit availability could likely take a hit.

During the peak of housing from January 2003 to March 2006, the housing market helped to create 1.3 million jobs. Since then, only 500,000 of those have been lost. Another 800,000 could be on the chopping block.

Major real estate broker shuts down


A major Valley real estate broker shut its doors just days before Christmas, leaving 350 agents without a home, and about 20 salaried employees without a job. RE/MAX 2000, based in Gilbert, is closing its 13 offices around the Valley.

Mortgage industry needs more layoffs, analysts say

"We believe that employment in the industry needs to drop by roughly 30 percent over the next year to flush out overcapacity," analysts Paul Miller and Annett Franke wrote for financial-research firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey.

Mortgage-industry employment stands at 450,000, down from 500,000 last year.

"We believe employment needs to decline by approximately 100,000 to 150,000 workers to bring employment levels in line with industry origination volumes," the FBR report said.

22 comments:

What too do? said...

Add me to the list. Self employed so no record I existed.

The Mortgage Guy said...

You're right, the payroll survey doesn't count self employeds, independent contractors and illegal aliens who haven't bought fraudulent working documents.

However, these people are somewhat represented by the employment household survey, which was soaring during the bubble years. Which by the way, was over represented by illegal aliens. http://vdare.com/rubenstein/070105_nd.htm



On a side note, there are an estimated 30 million illegal aliens in this country. Have you stopped to think about the price pressure 30 million additional people have put on housing, whether it be rentals or purchases? It must be enormous.

Anonymous said...

"They're simply independent contractors and agents. Or were. Now they're just unemployed. And to add to the misery, they have no jobless benefits, they can't make their mortgage payments, and they have no employable skills."

I disagree. I was just in a Nevada brothel and commented to the Madame that they needed more MILF-types. She told me she was interviewing three this week - all former real estate salespeople...

I remarked that we already know what they are, it's just a matter of price and to be careful. Realtors can never be trusted to give a full-day (or hours) work andto test them for STDs as they have been promiscuous for quite some time now and may not make good whores...

I recommended she put them on straight commish and turn them loose...

Happy Holidays 6%ers. You are DEAD.

Anonymous said...

You know we are a Dead nation when the Mexican illegal alien sneak-thief felons head back South...

Put out a bounty on them. Just bring in the scalps only...

Anonymous said...

mortgage guy:

According to the census, we have 17.9 million VACANT homes. So even with 30 million wetbacks, we still have many more houses than we need.

Many of those illegals will be forced to return home and are currently being foreclosed on.

More bad news for housing.

Edgar said...

You're right, Realtwhores® don't count.

Anonymous said...

But when the government lies to you, THAT's ok. It's for your own good.

Anonymous said...

But I want lies... if I know the truth I might have to take responsibility.

borkafatty said...

Don't kid yourself with the illegal aliens they are smarter than you think..
I know a couple of Brazilians that were living here for well over 10 years...saved their money...and about 3 months ago one came up to me and told me they are leaving the country cause they fear the shit is going to hit the fan here, sure enough they up and left...with the cloths on their backs...left behind everything..plasma tv's you name it///strange.....to say the least.

Merciless Ming said...

It gets even worse. These government numbers are a complete farce because they rely on figures from state employment offices and count only those registered as active "job seekers". Once a laid off worker's unemployment benefits are exhausted... after six months or so... they are simply dropped from the lists. As if by magic they have vanished into thin air and cease to be counted as unemployed.
So, even excluding the multitude of self employed and contractors the "official" figures are off by untold millions.
The "official" unemployment tally makes no reference people who still work at reduced hours or at lower paying jobs. For example, if ones employment changed from a full time job that paid $35. an hour to a $6 per hour job delivering pizzas ten hours a week, they still show up as employed.
More Government lies and BS!

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

I'm waiting to see the effect on tax revenues and how the IRS will respond, because you know at least half of those 1099 realtors and mortgage brokers never filed or paid taxes on all that income.

F&ckBu@h said...

Government numbers have been a joke since at least the time that senile old fool Ronald Reagon sat in the Whitehouse.

AHHHHHHHHHHH said...

The government has also been hiring primarily contract work for the past few years. My husband's location was just told that most of the contractors will be laid off next year.

Dino said...

Keefer,

Once again you miss the full picture. If the REIC numbers don't count now, they didn't count in 2004 or 2005 either. It's a wash.

The whole payroll numbers are really antiquated no matter what. The days of being a "payroll employee" are long gone for millions of people. Speaking for myself, I have not been part of a corporate payroll since 2002. Yet I have made $100K+ every year since as an independent contractor. About 50% of my friends are in the same situation.

Cow_tipping said...

Firing 1 illegal creates up to 2 jobs.
Why ???
Lets say a family of illegals is living and working. Dad in construction, mom in domestic based, son in Fast food. OK Dad gets 18/hr, and tons of overtime, mom gets $10 on a 40 hr week and Jr gets $8 and a 30hr week.
Dad gets fired when construction craps out and booya, they lose 60% of their income. They leave and go back to Mexico ... they leave behind 2 jobs to fill. That's why unemployment is down as well as employment.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Cow_tipping said...

Anonymous said...
"They're simply independent contractors and agents. Or were. Now they're just unemployed. And to add to the misery, they have no jobless benefits, they can't make their mortgage payments, and they have no employable skills."

I disagree. I was just in a Nevada brothel and commented to the Madame that they needed more MILF-types. She told me she was interviewing three this week - all former real estate salespeople...

I remarked that we already know what they are, it's just a matter of price and to be careful. Realtors can never be trusted to give a full-day (or hours) work andto test them for STDs as they have been promiscuous for quite some time now and may not make good whores...

I recommended she put them on straight commish and turn them loose...

Happy Holidays 6%ers. You are DEAD.

December 27, 2007 3:54 PM


You are a sicko ...
What kinda sicko goes to a brothel to bang a MILF ... That's what your Failed Flipper, nieghbor's wife is for.
Its OK, she's working on her mortgage payment.
You Go to a nevada brothel to bang a ... that's right, a wanna be starlet.
I mean. How cool would be be today to say, yup, I banged Angelina Jolie 15 years ago. She was young and hot back then. Only cost me 40 bucks. Here is some pics I took.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Anonymous said...

Why do you folks see the negative side always? We still have a very high level of employment. Most Americans are employed and make a living/earning. America is still the greatest nation on the face of this earth.

Anonymous said...

On a side note, there are an estimated 30 million illegal aliens in this country. Have you stopped to think about the price pressure 30 million additional people have put on housing, whether it be rentals or purchases? It must be enormous.
-------------------------
Well said. And another aspect to this whole fiasco is that illegal alien Mexicans are notorious for creating clown houses- these are homes with multiple families (sometimes upwards of thirty people to a three bedroom home and the housing authorities conveniently ignore living codes limiting specific numbers of people per bedroom)

Upward pressure is felt in these areas because several adults all contribute to the mortgage payment. Once again, our good for nothing government does nothing to stop this illegal activity.

clownpile said...

Recap:

GDP data = bullshit

Unemployment data = bullshit

Housing data = bullshit

Commercial banks balance sheets = bullshit

Investment banks financials = bullshit

Conclusion: We are in a world of shit.

Anonymous said...

"We believe that employment in the industry needs to drop by roughly 30 percent over the next year to flush out overcapacity,..."

Aggressive fraud investigations/prosecutions would have the same effect.

01/20/2009 the end of an error said...

Lets not forget 100Billion in MEW =2.5 million 40000 dollar a year jobs. That will be a bigger drag on the economy than unemployment. If MEW dropped from its 800B peak to say 200B that is like 15 million unemployed people. That is going to leave a mark!

pwnd said...

"America is still the greatest nation on the face of this earth."

What is America the greatest at again? Oh yea, that's right, we have the most powerful military. Whooopee!!! We can kill anybody we don't like - that's so awesome.

Meanwhile we aren't the greatest in terms of:

standard of living
literacy
healthcare
education
human rights
etc., etc., etc.

I swear, if we elect a president that does not believe in evolution, I AM OUTTA HERE !~!