December 08, 2007

Psst. Hey Buddy. Wanna buy a condo in Phoenix? Only $600,000. OK, would you do 5? How 'bout 4? OK, 3 and you're killing me. No? OK, 2 it is.


You would have to be the biggest fool in the world, or a mortgage fraudster doing a cash-back-at-close-inflated-appraisal scam, to buy one of these Northshore two-bedroom crap-shacks in Tempe Arizona for $600,000.

(Nice listing by the way by Keith Mishkin at Cambridge Properties. Really took your time there. Great picture! Really captures the essence of the place!)


Let's see, at 7% (jumbo), that'd be $4,000 a month. Add in $1000 more for condo fees and taxes, that's $5,000 a month. You could rent it if you're lucky for $1500.

My personal guess? Every single one of these units will be foreclosed on - either the developer goes belly up, or the fool who buys one (or bought one) will realize they're much better off just turning in the keys.

People lost their minds in Arizona and around the world these past few years. They listened to realtors who only cared about making their 6%, they didn't run the numbers, and now they got caught when the music ended.

No Housing Gambler Bailouts. Periods of wild speculation end in pain, and the government cannot and should not get in the way. It's time for the gamblers and the fools who lent them money to get slapped. Hard.

67 comments:

tater said...

That's a condo project????? Looks like a prison compound to me. Well, I guess it is in a way. If anybody bought one of 'em, they are imprisoned by DEBT. And, the interest clock keeps tickin - tick-tock, tick-tock.......

Anonymous said...

$600? $200? Try $130k for it to make investment sense

Edgar said...

It's only money, the banksters got plenty.

Anonymous said...

don't forget the 737s and A320s that fly 500feet over head 24hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year for ever.

SingleGuyMoney said...

The whole mortgage bailout is a slap in the face to people who did not go crazy and only bought what they could afford.

Debbie said...

Dude, that is one lousy picture.

Anonymous said...

Let's see, at 7% (jumbo), that'd be $4,000 a month. Add in $1000 more for condo fees and taxes, that's $5,000 a month. You could rent it if you're lucky for $1500.

---------

$1000 a month in condo fees and taxes? Are you high? Tax on that condo is maybe $2500 a year. Condo fees $250 at most.

Your point is well made, but no need to embellish the numbers.

Anonymous said...

Man are those units ugly .People that camped out over night to buy condos in Arizona were waiting for that . The world has gone mad ...The Devil has taken over .Repent sinners .

theloknesmonster said...

Get one on the top floor so you can be sure the fall will kill you...

Anonymous said...

I live in Scottsdale and I very much enjoy reading your posts on our ridiculous housing situation in Phoenix.

I'm a very happy renter. I live in a beautiful area of Scottsdale and able to rent for about 20% my monthly take home income. I had to listen to a whole bunch of "you are just throwing your money away" parrots, but now that the game is over - I suddenly look like some GENIUS. I sold my home in Tucson before moving here and wanted nothing to do with this housing run-amuck so I kept the profits and became a renter.

By the time everyone is done losing their shirt, I'll have enough money saved for a nice down payment.

Anonymous said...

Also, Tempe AZ is one of the armpits of Phoenix. It's a college town. Full white college students driving around blasting rap music, sporting rims, etc. The place is full of bums and garbage litters the landscape everywhere you go. Tempe Town Lake smells like urine and the pictures that they are displaying of it on that Northshore website are extremely misleading. The lake is very plain and somewhat boring looking. Nothing like the paradise they show in the pictures. What a joke.

Anonymous said...

This week's condo is next week's housing project.

Now there's a spot for all those Katrina victims still suffering out there!

Anonymous said...

Keefer you are right-on.

Not worth more that $40 - 60K at most

However I disagree with you politically.

kick em where it hurts said...

You have got to be kidding me.600k for a shitty condo.They are not worth 150k.You could buy 6 houses in maricopa for that.There is a sucker born every minute I guess.

Veronica Lodge said...

RE: Great picture! Really captures the essence of the place!

The place looks like a county jail with balconies.

And jail is free, with room service delivering three meals a day.

Why pay more?

V.L.

Anonymous said...

Keith, you got it all wrong. Arizona Realtors asked for more inventory in their market so their customers could have more choice. Hear it told as it is from Frank Dickens, President of the Arizona Association of Realtors. He will set you straight... Just watch his video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6umOsGyhQM
http://tinyurl.com/274s2a

I hope you put this video on the main page. It's a classic.

chris g said...

Misleading map too. The map shows it is on the grounds of Sun Devil Stadium and Packard Stadium, when it's actually on the other side of the lake. The aerial map of the development looks like a good representation of the way it looks in the picture --- an unfinished piece of crap.

keith said...

Property taxes are going to be about $6000 a year

http://phoenix.about.com/od/govtoff/qt/proptax.htm

Association fee about $4000 a year (someone do me a favor and find out from the developer)

Maintenance, insurance and other costs are going to be at least $2000 a year

I was kind to estimate $1000 a month

And I was kind to say this unit would be worth $200,000. In the foreclosure auction, gonna be less than that

Anonymous said...


$1000 a month in condo fees and taxes? Are you high? Tax on that condo is maybe $2500 a year. Condo fees $250 at most.


You're clueless. Condo fees on $100,000 2/2 condos I used to live in cost $250/mo. For a $600,000 it would easily be $500/mo. I've seen luxury condos in Miami with monthly condo fees of $1,500/mo.

The $2,500/yr taxes would be correct if the condo was sold at $300,000.

Anonymous said...

They really are that ugly

Anonymous said...

$ 69,500, TOPS.

hmmmm said...

Let's play this out:

What happens to the building? Let's say nobody buys any of them. Will the builder walk away or will he morph in to a rental mngr? How much do you think it cost to build the whole thing? Can they cover the cost with going rents? Let's put our heads together.

Anonymous said...

$6K property taxes for a condo WTF? I pay just a shade udner $4K for a 2600 sq ft home on 1.5 acres in suburban Atlanta that is assessed at $450K. And I think that is obscene. You're telling me a shitty-ass condo costs $2000 more in Phoenix? I find that very hard to believe.

I thought AZ was a low tax state. Either you are full of shit Keith or AZ has just earned the title of most overtaxed state in the country.

bob said...

Keefer, you're just missing the whole point here :)

On the right side of the listing page, along with conventional mortgage estimates, are your "ROYAL FINANCIAL OPTIONS:" - by going with their so called "Royal Cash Flow ARM, the montjly payment is only $1929.84 - this is a steal for a gorgeous property like this! And if you don;'t like the sound of that you can get the "Royal Fixed Option ARM" (oooooohhhh! it's "Fixed"!) for a mere $2000.00 per month!

How can you turn down a sweet deal like that? I'll bet Casey Serin has got 10 of them!

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:17 said:
Full white college students driving around blasting rap music, sporting rims, etc.
-------------------------
What's up with that? Why do white kids want to mimic ghetto hood mentality? I dont get it!
Has the whole world become GHETTO?

SeattleMoose said...

140K....tops. No more that that.

Anonymous said...

Greg Swann would recommend an offer for $650 to make sure you get it. Year round golf ya know

Anonymous said...

That REALTOR should be fired for that listing! Hilarious!

Anonymous said...

Fu*king A right

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

don't forget the 737s and A320s that fly 500feet over head 24hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year for ever.

Let's not forget that it's in Tempe. At night the streets are packed with drunken shaved-head, pierced, tattooed wannabe skinheads, gangster wannabes, lowriders blasting rap garbage, fights, beer bottles & trash everywhere. Oh and panhandlers all over the place.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

I thought AZ was a low tax state.

Not anymore. I lived in Arizona from 2000-2007 and under their new True Blue government the taxes have gotten out of control. I moved to California and to my very pleasant surprise the taxes aren't very much higher than Arizona. (And there are less "hidden" taxes in CA, for example my car registration in CA is $700 less than it was in AZ.)

On the association fees thing, condo fees in Arizona are typically much higher than HOA fees on houses, because condos are a scam.

As an interesting side note, the Arizona Dept of Revenue carries the distinction of being the most brutal tax agency in the US, even more brutal than the IRS when it comes to seizures and raids. Can you say POLICE STATE?

Anonymous said...

"don't forget the 737s and A320s that fly 500feet over head 24hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year for ever."
Thats right, it's in the flight path of the airport less than 4 miles away.

and also don't forget the APS power station half a mile to the south. Which looks really special when its lit up at night, even more so now that they tacked on some Xmas lites.

FMW said...

In Orlando, condo fees top/high end condos $900.00 a month, taxes for a 535 sq foot condo $1,900.OO yr. and just go up from there.

Anonymous said...

Not all Realtors mislead you folks. I certainly did not. I walked away from business when I could have made money. I did not want my clients to have the problems that so many of you have.

It also seems that some of those that bought into those interest only arms are lacking in the financial common sense area. You never sign on a mortgage that you can not make the inevitable MAXIMUM payment.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds said...

On Swann's site they are promoting a "Unique Opportunity for Realtors" to take jobs as limo drivers during the Super bowl!

AHAHAHHA!!!!

Anonymous said...

I thought that was the SuperMax Federal prison in Florence Colorado

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

I live in Scottsdale and I very much enjoy reading your posts on our ridiculous housing situation in Phoenix.

I'm a very happy renter. I live in a beautiful area of Scottsdale and able to rent for about 20% my monthly take home income. I had to listen to a whole bunch of "you are just throwing your money away" parrots, but now that the game is over - I suddenly look like some GENIUS. I sold my home in Tucson before moving here and wanted nothing to do with this housing run-amuck so I kept the profits and became a renter.

By the time everyone is done losing their shirt, I'll have enough money saved for a nice down payment.

December 08, 2007 3:09 PM<<<


well, they are still giving out liar lones. why not go down and buy one and don't pay a pennny down, don't pay any taxes and let them foreclose and then go to court and request that they produce the signed contract to prove they are holder in due course....that should take a couple of years and during that time , you live free with no taxes...only in amerika..

borkafatty said...

You might want to read this...oh and you Bush (Dush) cheerleaders,,thank your great president for the even more kick in the teeth to American People..Prepare for the worst...

thank you

Signed... the Doom & Gloomers

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20071208/tpl-uk-iran-oil-dollar-02bfc7e_1.html

Anonymous said...


On Swann's site they are promoting a "Unique Opportunity for Realtors" to take jobs as limo drivers during the Super bowl!


There's also a unique opportunity for them to dig through dumpsters for aluminum cans

Anonymous said...


for example my car registration in CA is $700 less than it was in AZ.)


WTF? My car registration in Texas is $70/yr for a new $35,000 car. We pay no state income taxes and our schools are ranked higher than Clownifornia. Don't give me the excuses about illegals, because we have more of them than Arizona and probably as many as Clownifornia.

Anonymous said...


What's up with that? Why do white kids want to mimic ghetto hood mentality? I dont get it!
Has the whole world become GHETTO?


Because their parents are morons, ergo the moron gene was passed down to their children. I see 40 yr-old white guys driving around in Escalades with 26-inch spinner rims.

Anonymous said...

$6K property taxes for a condo WTF? I pay just a shade udner $4K for a 2600 sq ft home on 1.5 acres in suburban Atlanta that is assessed at $450K.

Property taxes are based on the assessed value of the property, not the sqft. If you pay $4K for a $450K property, then it is very likely that the $600K property has $6K in property taxes. Property taxes in Texas are even more obscene. My sister pays $6300/yr taxes on her $230K 3300sqft house with a pool on 3/4 acre. At least we have no state income tax. I rent a townhouse, so I get the best of both worlds. I get a garage, backyard, live close to work and pay no property or state income taxes. I'm investing my money in international equities and will be moving my money to a Swiss account through UBS.

asian tiger said...

The picture reminds me of some failed late 90's condo development from southeast asia.

Nothing says glitz like a tree growing on the fifth floor.

Anonymous said...

Hillary in my view, is an American Goddess

Anonymous said...

I'm a graduate student at Arizona State University so I drive past this place several times a week.

I cannot fathom who would seriously want to live in Tempe other than a broke college student. It has no redeeming qualities whatsoever.

The poster who mentioned the jets flying over is absolutely right. The Sky Harbor flight path goes right over this area. There is a nonstop stream of airliners buzzing by every 5 minutes all day long as they descend into the airport.

Mill avenue is a 24/7 freakshow.

The area is overrun with homeless people.

The Tempe town lake area is littered and full of construction sites.

And lets not forget about the city of Tempe's Draconian wrath on people who need to park cars. Leave your car in the wrong spot for 1 minute and the parking nazi will nail you. If only they put as much effort into cleaning up the city, busting drunk drivers, red light runners, road ragers, etc.

They can always turn this condo into a proxy dorm if the sales thing doesn't work.

Princess Mononoke said...

OMG! There is an almost exact replica two blocks from me... with HUGE banners hanging from the roof that use to read (Condo's selling for mid $500s) Now the banner's read (100% financing) and a new one added (Luxury Condo's).

They are not even mentioning the price so as to lure an unsuspecting fool thru their front doors! What a joke and very sad!

I'm thinking all of these overpriced condo complex's that are sitting empty will be converted to apartments.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>$1000 a month in condo fees and taxes? Are you high? Tax on that condo is maybe $2500 a year. Condo fees $250 at most.

Your point is well made, but no need to embellish the numbers.
December 08, 2007 2:28 PM

NOT here in Los Angeles, CA... HOA fees range from $150mo to $500mo.+ That is per MONTH. Our property taxes are 1.30% of the purchase price and can increase no more than 2% of the annual amount. INSANITY!!! People are paying through the nose and this does NOT include their mortgage.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>By the time everyone is done losing their shirt, I'll have enough money saved for a nice down payment.
December 08, 2007 3:09 PM

Better yet, you'll be able to buy a home OUTRIGHT in cash with your down payment money saved ;)

Anonymous said...

Sheriff Joe is looking for more space right? These would do.

Anonymous said...

Right on Dude, I am so mad about the way the press in not talking about this problem. Where are the foreclosures? The banks don't want to create a panic so they are not listing the properties. Because people would buy from the banks instead of the real estate agents. It would behoove the banks to open up to the general public the houses for sale. I personally told my bank to give me a foreclosure listing, and was told to go on line. It would be a win win situation all around.
Am I wrong in this thinking?
LM

Anonymous said...

That condo looks like some shelled out building from WWII.

Anonymous said...

Thank goodness Arizona allows you to carry a firearm!

happy homeowner in the stix said...

for example my car registration in CA is $700 less than it was in AZ.)


WTF? My car registration in Texas is $70/yr for a new $35,000 car. We pay no state income taxes and our schools are ranked higher than Clownifornia. Don't give me the excuses about illegals, because we have more of them than Arizona and probably as many as Clownifornia.


AZ has some of the nation's highest car registration fees in the country. Beats the hell out of me why....had to pay $450 on a 25k car, I kid you not. The only time I paid less than $100 per year was when I had a '66 Impala (damn, I miss that car!), mainly because it was so old it qualified as a classic.

And don't get any Arizonan talking about the car insurance rates....that's even worse. With all the crappy drivers running red lights and the stolen cars ending up in Mexico, it's nothing to pay close to 10% of your car value in insurance each year.

Public transportation in Phoenix is a joke, too. You can't freakin' win there when it comes to your car.

Anonymous said...

OMG, the picture you used is from his listing! At first I thought you had either used a) a photo of some other building or b) someone had sent in an actual photo.

Anonymous said...

$6K property taxes for a condo WTF? I pay just a shade udner $4K for a 2600 sq ft home on 1.5 acres in suburban Atlanta that is assessed at $450K. And I think that is obscene. You're telling me a shitty-ass condo costs $2000 more in Phoenix? I find that very hard to believe.

I thought AZ was a low tax state. Either you are full of shit Keith or AZ has just earned the title of most overtaxed state in the country.
-----------------------------------

I think the math all works out. you pay just under $10 per assessed $1000. Keith is estimating those condos will be $10 per 1000 with the assessed value at 600k. Here in oregon I pay ~$12 per 1000 (we have no sales tax).

happy homeowner in the stix said...

I never thought they could possibly resurrect anything as ugly as the old University Towers (are they still standing in Tempe?) as 600k condos.

I stand corrected.

At least the stucco'd styrofoam and chickenwire shitboxes out towards the county line have a yard, tiny though it is, and more than 2 bedrooms. It *almost* makes them look like a steal. (yeah...if I was outta my mind on crack....)

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

WTF? My car registration in Texas is $70/yr for a new $35,000 car. We pay no state income taxes and our schools are ranked higher than Clownifornia. Don't give me the excuses about illegals, because we have more of them than Arizona and probably as many as Clownifornia.

No offense but you get what you pay for. I've been to every city in Texas -

Dallas & Houston: Dirty, ugly, crappy weather and Dallas is just as fake and pretentious as Scottsdale.
San Antonio: B-o-r-i-n-g
Austin: Pothead liberal hippies in sandals

You can keep it. I'll happily continue to pay extra to enjoy a high quality of life.

PS: Our schools here in Orange County are ranked highest in the nation. CA is the most populous state so it's a bit silly and ignorant to generalize.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

WTF? My car registration in Texas is $70/yr for a new $35,000 car. We pay no state income taxes

I have lots of friends in Texas (Houston, Austin, and San Antonio) and they're constantly bitching about their $1,000/month electric bills.

You're paying high taxes too, just in a different form. Don't kid yourself.

Suzanne said its different in Seattle said...

Seattle is the next condo implosion waiting to happen.
There are thousands of new units coming on-line in the next year to add to the panicing flippers who bought pre-construction who are starting to flood the market with for sale units. The majority of all these new condos are being priced at 500K and up. All the realtors have been claming "its different in Seattle" because for up until summer this year, prices weren't correcting. But since mid-summer prices have started tanking and this past week, the median home price is down to what was seen in 2006 and its still heading lower.

mikey said...

I need to call Greg Swann and order two of these beutys.
They remind me of pictures of Sarejavo, when the serbs were up in the hills surrounding the town, and bombarding the city with artillary.
Oh we've got a long long way to fall!

Anonymous said...


WTF? My car registration in Texas is $70/yr for a new $35,000 car. We pay no state income taxes and our schools are ranked higher than Clownifornia. Don't give me the excuses about illegals, because we have more of them than Arizona and probably as many as Clownifornia.


You sound to me like you are another apologist for illegals.

Secondly, your cat reg fees may not be that high, but your property taxes are about 3% of the assessed value as opposed to 1% in most states. Furthermore, the taxes in Texas can be recalculated at any time based on the homes re-assessed value as opposed to states like California where property taxes cannot go up more than 2% a year.

Enjoy paying for all the illegals, you liberal dumb ass!

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Our schools here in Orange County are ranked highest in the nation. CA is the most populous state so it's a bit silly and ignorant to generalize.

Wanna look at the data, Frank?

It's possible Orange County is a fount of excellence. Newsweek rankings of the top public high schools in the country have Cypress come in at #8. It's the only representative from California in the top twenty, and it is in Orange County, I believe.

Dallas holds four of the top twenty spots. As a matter of fact, the top two public high schools in their rankings are in Dallas.

In all fairness, Dallas is slipping. They held five of the top twenty slots in 2006.

But hey, why bother with the facts, right???

Back to the beach, Frank, before you say something else stupid on this thread....That "quality California edumacation" isn't serving you too well.....

Anonymous said...

When did Tempe get so ghetto ?

Anonymous said...

or example my car registration in CA is $700 less than it was in AZ.)


WTF? My car registration in Texas is $70/yr for a new $35,000 car.

----------
Well good for fucking Texas. Most states charge registration based on a car's value. Drive a Lexus, pay $500. Drive a Civic, pay $100.

Anonymous said...

Take away the sign and it could be a picture of a correctional facility!

corvinus said...

$35k. Not a penny more.

Anonymous said...

35,000 IT IS BUT THAT WOULD MAKE THE TAX AND SPENDERS HAVE 20 TIMES LESS MONEY AND NOW THEY ARE COMPLAINING THAT THE BUDGET IS A BILLION OR TWO TWO HIGH AND THEY WILL HAVE TO GET MORE REVENUE FROM ..WHO..WHAT,,WHERE ...ECT ECT... NO WONDER THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRIA;S AND MEDIA WERE THE POLITICALY CORRECT NOT THE SHEEPLE LEMMINGS ITS A HARD RAIN GONNA FALL.