January 01, 2008

Open Thread: Give us your best 2008 predictions here (bump 1/1)

Politics

Housing

World Events

Fed Policy

Or anything else you've got a good hunch about. And don't post as "anon" - at least make up a name so we can keep track and give you credit if you're right

My #1 prediction. Hold on. Get ready. Sit down....

Home prices will tank.

Surprised?

I'll give you more during this thread, including my picks for the 2008 presidential race and Superbowl.

193 comments:

Nimesh Patel said...

My prediction for 2008 is that the real estate market will recover and our stock market will go through another bull run after it hits a low of 12000.

America is the wealthiest country in the whole world. Despite the recent subprime mortgage fallout, foreigners will continue to trust us. They have to; to do so otherwise means they will shoot themselves on the foot. Asians and Europeans will continue to lend to us because to do so otherwise means M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction) and who wants that?

devestment said...

Politics= Smear campaign drives negative consumer perception as arguments for what is wrong with the economy abound.

Housing= Not worth talking about.

World Events= Many bubble countries feel the recession while governments try to divert attention to some crisis or country dividing issue.

Fed Policy= One last round of rate drops under the current administration causes incredible inflation. First quarter gold over $1000 and silver over $20.00. Then high interest under the new administration so the super rich can compound their new fortunes.

Guitargirl said...

People will feel forced to start withdrawing/borrowing from retirement 401k's to pay off some high interest debts which will further jolt the stock market.

Misean said...

Ron Paul..assasinated.

Cheers,

born to lose said...

2008 - 2010 will be the toughest times since the seventies. Inflation, unemployment, bankrupt cities and states, and the housing crash will hit my generation hard. No one born in the last 40 years had to live through tough times in this country and we've gotten soft. Not the end of the world, but tough.

And the Patriots wont even be in the superbowl

grilled cheese and corn chips said...

It's Al-Quida's fault!

Osama's 1972 walkie-talkie's 9-volt battery should be running out of juice in 2008!

GW Bush's best friend operated Enron.

Cheney and bush lied about 9/11.

Please connect the dots. They remain on the run...

Anonymous said...

-
-
-
-
-
Hitlery wins primaries in a landslide.

Rudy wins primaries but Romney/Huckabee make it interesting until March.

Rudy wins election by about 75 electoral votes.

Ron Paul gets 1% as fringe candidates always do. Sorry but all that money you donated was a waste.

Patriots win SuperBowl by 18 over the NFC sacrificial lamb which I'll go out on a limb and say will be Tampa Bay.

JAMBU said...

re: tampa bay

forgot to pick a name...there is it

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

$100 a barrel will be cheap oil and gas will be $4.00 a gallon by Q3 or Q4 of 08.
Natural Gas will be used to fire electric plants and the demand will rise, because it is a cleaner burning fossil fuel.
This will further hit consumers in the wallet where it hurts during the peak natural gas burning winter season.
Demand up, price up.

Three_Mile_Island said...

Fed rate 1%
Gold new highs
Oil new highs

War breaks out in a new Middle east country

A major "Accident" around election time.

figen said...

I aggree. and you know what is funny in the past people used to beg to the banks for not to do foreclousere, today banks are begging to the people. I think they deserve what is coming.

figen said...

I aggree. and you know what is funny; In the past people used to beg to the banks for not to do foreclouse, today banks are the ones begging.

Anonymous said...

Predictions for 08?

Okay I'll give it a stab

1. Super Bowl Champ: Who cares!

2. Paris Hilton marries Mike Tyson

3. Will Smith actually attempts
to act in a movie (instead
of being his usual obnoxious
arrogant self)

4. Los Angeles has a net influx
of 2 white people

5. Illegals all go back to
Mexico

6. Hollywood writers all commit
mass suicide

7. Mario Lopez marries Charlie
Sheen

8. Oprah Winfrey loses weight,
puts a paper bag over her
face and wins Miss America

9. Property values go up 100%

10. All property flippers start
flipping burgers to regain
lost dignity.

Well, we can least dream about these things, cant we?

happy homeowner in the stix said...

You might actually be able to find construction workers and landscapers who speak English in Arizona.

Who knows....with all the illegals leaving for Mexico or another state (hello, California!), there might even be jobs available for construction workers in Phoenix who can prove they are here legally.

Radio Campesina, Kora's Taxi, Food City and other businesses that cater to illegals are definitely going to have to change their business models if they want to stay operational....bummer, right?

And lastly, watch for more stories in the AZ Repulsive and the Old Times whining about how hard it is for the illegals in the new "climate of fear" or some other bullshit catch phrase they are going to toss around in their stupid rags. Look for those stories to become more frequent as their writers' usual household help decides to leave town and they have to scrub their own toilets for a change, or actually pay more than $10 an hour for the service (oh, the horror of it all!)

guy n. cognito said...

.
.
a small recession, the SWFs will continue to extract capital... er infuse cash, sorry. the SWFs will target utilities and agri-business next but Congress will pass some uber-nationalist act called the "Free Market/Economy Act" or some other misnomer that limits FDI to US Treasuries.

Option ARMs will hit their reset LTV cap en masse.

we're a nation of idiots, we will elect an idiot = either Hillary or Huckabee. but their stay at the White House will be short lived b/c of the Depression in 2010-11.

Your Jewish Master said...

-Pres-o-dent Huckabee

-Housing prices go down to a maximum of 2001 prices plus 3-5% a year

-Iraq winds down. And everything from a rainy summer to my broken shoelace is Bush's fault

-Feds throw gas on the fire. Then throw water on the fire. It can't do anything but make matters worse. It's not in the Fed'd power to fix this.

Anonymous said...

Neocons will continue to lose power. Ron Paul will pull away the traditional Republican power base and expose the Neocons as frauds and thieves. Hitlary Clintoon wins the election and proposes a massive bailout for Wall Street, er flippers, er victimized homeowners by raising taxes on the rich (anyone who makes more than $45,000/yr)

DC insider said...

-War with Iran and Syria courtesy of AIPAC et all
-Bush declares state of emergency and elections suspended indefinitly
-Everyone who can breath is drafted
-Housing completly tanks
-Global Depression
-WWIII as Iraq, Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan all collapse into the war vortex
-Europeans flip out
-China and Russia jump into the fray
The end of America :(.

Anonymous said...

Housing - continuing fall in prices with big regional variations. Follow on falls in commercial real estate.

World Events - more destruction in Iraq. More destabilization in Pakistan. Al qaeda continues winning the War on Terra because we are led by idiots for another year at least.

Fed policy - more cuts in rates, increasing inflation.

Politics - Clinton/Obama/Edwardes vs Huckabee or McCain. R's get crushed because of 8 years of corruption and incompetence, and an awakening that conservative philosophy is actually about breaking government.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Home prices will plummet to unimaginable lows in summer of 2008 when the bulk of arm resets hit, the FB's learn that Bush's bailout bill was a bunch of political smoke & mirrors that doesn't help anyone, and credit becomes all but impossible to obtain.

Oil prices skyrocket more - $5/gallon gas. Gold continues to rise on a weak dollar.

Phoenix/Scottsdale is hit with more store & restaurant closures and starts to look like a ghost town (parts of Scottsdale already do). Unemployment in that city skyrockets to double-digits thanks to the 40% REIC-based economy, crime spirals out of control, and the normal people pack up and move out, leaving behind the "New Detroit" for criminals and looters to take over. City of Scottsdale goes bankrupt due to massive loss of property taxes and the failure of their photo radar scheme to become profitable.

(People forget that before the REIC took over, Phoenix's economy was call center and factory jobs, which have now all moved to China and India.)

Other bubble cities such as Vegas, San Diego, Miami, suffer losses on a much smaller scale since they have something other than REIC to fall back on for jobs; however, the effects are still felt in those places.

There will be no terrorist attacks because Bin Laden wants a Democrat president in the U.S., and attacking us in 2008 will just make more people vote Republican.

Ron Paul won't win but his campaign will have woken enough people up that more and more Americans will take a stand and start putting their foot down against anti-American and anti-Freedom crap like the IRS, wealth redistribution (including socialized healthcare), gun control, global warming, special privileges for minorities, illegal immigrants, overzealous police, and everything else that is chipping away at our freedom.

Anonymous said...

I do not see house prices crashing - no one is lowering prices enough to make a difference. I do see new homes listed less ofr existing homes, but there is not a lot of new building in my area. Home prices are ridiculous and sellers aren't close to lowering to reasonable prices.

Your Jewish Master said...

Anon 8:08-
You don't really consider $45,000 rich, do you? Or is that what you think the Dems think?

DC insider-
"Bush declares state of emergency and elections suspended indefinitly"
The Year 2000 survivalists said the same thing about Clinton. Don't let it keep you up nights.

buttmunch said...

Bush will flip the White House just before exiting.

If Huck wins he'll be stupid enough to pay Bush's asking price out of his on pocket.

If Hillarious wins she'll raise taxes on all white males who have more than one shirt to wear to work.

If Borock wins he's gonna stay at his baby's mommas house.

apple pie said...

No major changes till the China Olympics.
The myth of global growth begins to show cracks at the beginning
of the Olympic season, by the time Olympics are over, a new clarity begins to show.

Chinas growth was unsustainable
The whole ‘invest globally’ was the post housing bubble.
The EU finds itself in massive hyperinflation, and in a major economic and political crisis.
Oil drops dramatically, back to about $10 a barrel, and like magic; Russia, Iran and Venezuela, become irrelevant.
Muslims will stand up and openly declare war against extremists and those behind the ‘Palestinian cause’; it will be the first time in generations were Israeli and Arab relations bloom.
US housing prices go back to approx. 2001
European housing prices go back to approx. 1997
Japanese Housing finally begins to improve.

eastlacounty said...

If what I know is true then I predict people (America and elsewhere) will not be able to consume anywhere near what has been the norm the past few years.

Housing prices will retreat severely as credit underwriting returns to sanity land.

Fianlly, due to the large amnounts of dollar wealth held by fewer and fewer Americans interest rates will rise dramatically. After all it is better to be rich and let your easily earned dollar earn interest that you can then spend than it is to open a bicycle shop in your home town and do worthwhile work for your community.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Frank, stop it already with that "the only industry Phoenix had before the REIC boom was call centers" shit.

I realize you hate the place. But when your ignorance keeps you saying patently untrue shit about Phoenix, it just makes everything else you continue to spew completely unbelievable.

Stick to your bullshit cold calling books, m'kay?

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

And everything from a rainy summer to my broken shoelace is Bush's fault

That's hilarious!!! Funny but oh so true.

Anonymous said...

If Hillarious wins she'll raise taxes on all white males who have more than one shirt to wear to work.

-------

Thanks, that's the funniest thing I've read in a while. Well done.

Anonymous said...

I was at the mall this afternoon. Place was more packed than a week before x-mas and it was crazy busy then. I took my dog to Petco to get groomed, and even there it was a zoo (no pun intended).

I don't know where you people see this great depression. Sure as hell isn't happening where I live.

decaffeinated said...

- At least one major US bank that is not Countrywide will teeter on the brink of insolvency, forcing a Congressional bailout. I'm thinking WaMu, but the rot at Citi seems pervasive as well.

- WaMu's stock price will flirt with $5/share.

- Gold will top out at $975/oz, silver at $18/oz.

- The Dems will take the presidency and retain both houses of Congress. Republicans will piss themselves.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Frank, stop it already with that "the only industry Phoenix had before the REIC boom was call centers" shit.

Sorry but it's true. 40% of Phoenix-area jobs are directly or indirectly tied to REIC. Look it up.

Every year Forbes names Arizona the "dumbest state in the US" based on education - yes it's ranked below even the deep south - think about that and maybe you'll begin to understand that it's nothing but low-wage unskilled jobs.

Please don't start posting that Honeywell employs 10,000 people and crap like that, because it doesn't make any impact at all in a city with 4 million people.

If you think I'm making any of this up, take a drive through DC Ranch Marketplace which is currently 60% vacant, the shopping center at Scottsdale & Shea (the CPK one) which is about 80% vacant, or drive around any neighborhood and notice that almost every house has a for sale or for rent sign on the lawn.

Most of my friends in Arizona have left or are planning to move because all the jobs have dried up. They must leave the state to find employment.

...and it's only going to get worse.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Stick to your bullshit cold calling books, m'kay?

You mean the ones that allowed me to retire at 30 and move out of sh*thole Scottsdale? Good advice - I think I will stick to those after all.

I was at the mall this afternoon. Place was more packed than a week before x-mas and it was crazy busy then.

Wow, the mall was busy a few days after X-mas. What a shocker. That's like saying Vegas was busy on Super Bowl Sunday. Or the Led Zep reunion was a sold-out show.

DOPE.

http://www.cobbledick.net/ said...

http://www.cobbledick.net/

Anonymous said...

I'm going out on a limb and against the conventional wisdom, but I think Ron Paul is going to win the first few primaries and caucuses, leading up to a Clinton/Paul showdown. Paul wins by such a landslide that both parties are thrown into total disarray.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ericbramlett.com/worst-realtor-photos.php

Anonymous said...

BOYCOTT FOXNEWS if they don't allow Ron Paul to participate in the Jan 6 GOP debate forum!!!!!!!

E-mail Fox News and and tell them that you will never watch Fox News again.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,77538,00.html

Your Jewish Master said...

eastlacounty-
"let your easily earned dollar earn interest that you can then spend than it is to open a bicycle shop in your home town and do worthwhile work for your community."

Great comment. You speak from experience, don't you?

Anonymous said...

Wow, the mall was busy a few days after X-mas. What a shocker. That's like saying Vegas was busy on Super Bowl Sunday. Or the Led Zep reunion was a sold-out show.

DOPE.

December 29, 2007 10:16 PM


========

You babboons keep saying nobody has any money. Nobody is spending. The depression is here. Now all of a sudden packed malls are part of a depression.

Damn you babboons are getting sillier by the hour.

Anonymous said...

an idiot named frank said:

Sorry but it's true. 40% of Phoenix-area jobs are directly or indirectly tied to REIC. Look it up.

FRANKIE:

You are a tool, seriously. Look it up.

Anonymous said...

Oh and FRANKIE,

AZ may be the shits in education, true. But guess who is right there with it? California. You dumb fuck, you moved from the 50th stupidest state to the 47th. Wow what a move.

I suppose by your incredibly narrow logic, California's economy is based on nothing but REIC. After all google employs 4000 people, but that is meaningless in a state with 30 million people.

I used to think bitter renter was HP's stupides poster. You are giving him a run for the title.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Ok, Frank, I looked it up.

Phoenix is currently home to three major Fortune 1000 companies: electronics corporation Avnet, Apollo Group (which operates the University of Phoenix), and mining company Freeport McMoRan. Honeywell hosts many factories for the building of military grade engines, as well as their company network gateway in Phoenix. Intel has one of their largest sites in Arizona, employing about 11,000 employees and 3 chip manufacturing fabs, including the $3 billion dollar state of the art 300mm, 45nm Fab 32. American Express hosts their financial transactions, customer information, and their entire website in Phoenix. The area is also home to US Airways Group, a Fortune 500 company located in Tempe. Nearby Scottsdale is also home to Allied Waste Industries, Inc. (also listed on the Fortune 500), the second largest non-hazardous solid waste management company in the United States. Phoenix is also home to the headquarters of U-HAUL International, a rental company and moving supply store.

In recent years many Internet companies have found a home in Phoenix. Internet companies like Google, eBay, AOL, IPowerWeb, and GoDaddy all have offices located in Phoenix.


Ok, U Haul is tied to the REIC, but the rest of 'em? Not so much.

But hey, what do I know? I only grew up there and still have family and friends there.....and not a one of 'em works in any industry tied to the REIC. None of them have their houses up for sale, and none of them have any plans to move.

Get out of Snottsdale every now and then....you might be surprised.

And BTW, you rocket scientist, there's only about 2.5 million people in Phoenix and the metro area. Not 4 million.

Great advertisement for a California edumacation there, Frank. Maybe you shoulda gone to one of them there backwards AZ schools instead....

Anonymous said...

I'm going out on a limb and against the conventional wisdom, but I think Ron Paul is going to win the first few primaries and caucuses, leading up to a Clinton/Paul showdown. Paul wins by such a landslide that both parties are thrown into total disarray.

-------

Is that before or after I have my 3-some with Dallas cheerleaders? I mean we are both discussing wet dreams that will never happen right.

Anonymous said...

KWEEFER I don't get your followers. They orgasm at the thought of Ron Paul. Yet 33% according to your poll would vote for Barack Osamabama, the polar opposite of Ron Paul with regards to fiscal issues. Ron Paul wants to abolish the IRS and cut govt spending, Osamabama wants to raise taxes and have the govt run every aspect of our lives.

This tells me your followers have no fucking clue what's what.

Anonymous said...


I was at the mall this afternoon. Place was more packed than a week before x-mas and it was crazy busy then. I took my dog to Petco to get groomed, and even there it was a zoo (no pun intended).


I saw a newsreel from a football game in the 1930's and the stadium was full. More cars were bought in the 1930's than during the Golden 20's. I guess the Great Depression never happened since people had money to go to a football game and buy cars.

orange dude said...

The tea leaves have spoken...

Wells Fargo, Countrywide, and Wachovia will merge.

An anonymous investment group based in Hong Kong will hold a 38% stake in the newly-formed 'Super Bank.'

Mozillo will be 'appointed' interim CEO.

The stock will trade @ 87.45 on April 1st...

ugh said...

"Toe to toe nooklar combat with the Rooskies."

Mark in San Diego said...

I have predicted for months that Cheney will have "heart problems" and resign . . .then name Conde as VP, and she will run for President. . .the Bush administration has no vested interest in any of the current Republican candidates, since they have distanced themselves from the Whitehouse. . .why do they care at all. . .but this would be a way of holding on to power. . .

My other prediction is that the market does go to 15K this year. . .the PPT will be out in force. If housing tanks, unemployment goes up, they are in a panic state to keep the market up so J6P (Joe Six Pac) doesn't panic.

Oh - and Scottsdale and San Diego housing prices will go down 20% . . .duh. . .doesn't take much of a stretch there.

Edgar said...

1) Beware the October surprise.

2) The Bush crime family moves to South America with their loot.

3) Gasoline shortages.

4) Riots.

scottsdalerjack said...

In 2008 the Republic-rats will realize that a Democratic landslide is in the making,so will come up with the following desperate plan:

Have Bush run again for his SECOND term, since for his first term he was appointed by the Supreme Court,therefore not elected,so he is eligible to run for a SECOND term. This of course will create a national crisis, but as before the Supreme Court will vote in his favor to run again.

Hillary goes on to wipe the floor with the chimp, while routing the despondent Republic-rats and cruising to victory as President of the USA with twin majorities in Congress.

Despondent and castrated Repugnants crawl away in shame,defeat and fully embrace the religious right-wing wackos for salvation and under-age and gay sex.
Paulistas fade to obscurity as they realize this will always be a two-party political system and they have to pick a side.

But not all of them:
Blinded idealogue and humiliated Fred Thompson supporter, Frank@scottsdle-sucks, attempts to re-enter the Scottsdale business and social scene that had him expelled and blacklisted due to his redneck neo-Nazi demeanor. Now dressed in a Tommy Bahama knock-off shirt, he's spotted cruising the Old Town Scottsdale night club scene wearing a "Republicans for Hillary" button and carrying a copy of his panned book, while trying to impress and pick up the same Scottsdale skanks that rejected him before and drove him into California exile.

Yes!,Frank@scottsdale-sucks,you too in 2008 can get a second chance in America,and come back to the Scottsdale you always wanted to be part of, but couldn't crack at your first attempt. After all,even Mike Tyson found redemption here.

Anonymous said...

I will go by "INQUIRING MIND" for the purposes of this prediction thread.

I wrote on December 1st 2007

"SCENARIO:

'Massive Job Losses'
When? 'Early Next Year'
'Pushes stick forward on housing collapse' (Airplane reference. Pushing the stick forward on a plane puts it into a steeper dive)
'Leveraged Assets Fail'
'Pension Plans Fail'
'Commotion'
'Reactionary pullback in spending speeds collapse'

Later on I expect; despair,anger,violence, and political upheaval.


August of '06 I posted the following on the web but took it down later-

As I sat in the Costco food court, sipping a coke, a visual image along with a feeling came into my mind. I saw my wife and I at some future date having a despaired discussion. A feeling of hopelessness hung like a pall over the scene. We were cleaned out and unable to make a house payment. The money we had put down was gone and we had nothing. The American dream had become a noose around our necks. I sensed that this was at least a nationwide thing and that there was pain everywhere.

This was back in March of 2006. I had watched the housing market and was contemplating purchasing a house. Something didn’t feel right so I was trying to tune in. I have always felt that I had some level of intuition but also have had a lot of doubt about my ability to “bet the farm” on that intuition. I heard that the conscious mind is the intuition’s biggest critic, so I decided to open the door and listen, but to back that up with LOTS of research.

I discovered that astute analysts have been warning about the housing bubble for at least two years and that the warnings have gotten louder in the last several months. The mass awareness of the bubble broke wide open yesterday, August 23rd when the bubble was the lead story on ABC, CBS, NBC, and The Drudge Report. The domino effects of this process will be admitted into the mass awareness later and with great resistance.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Paul wins by such a landslide that both parties are thrown into total disarray.

And then he dismantles our military and we all get blown up at the hands of terrorists.

Anonymous said...

Unable to hold it together until after the election, the US slips into a severe recession in the Spring.

Ron Paul wins the election, because he is the only candidate that can pull the country out of financial ruins.

Fox News goes bankrupt.

Bill O'Reilly is arrested for underaged sex with a minor and becomes a member of Meghan's list.

Rudy Guiliani finally comes out of the closet as a cross-dresser, and he becomes the new face for Mac makeup.

Oprah and Obama's wife announce their love for one another and tie the knot in a civil ceremony officiated by Rosie.

Huckabee becomes the new spokeperson for weightwatchers.

Bush announces his addiction to meth and enters a long term rehab facility. Laura leaves Bush for good.

Anonymous said...

I predict that
rEaLToRs go INsAnE!

http://tinyurl.com/2px86k

"December 27, 2007

MIAMI, FL (Crime Library) — Police have arrested a Miami-Dade real estate agent for posting fake escort ads to an Internet classified website...

...a local real estate agent and married mother of two, reported that she was receiving hundreds of unsolicited phone calls and text messages from strangers inquiring about sex. One of the callers had confessed that he found her number in an escort ad at Craigslist.org..."

NICE mugshot, weirdo. (__*__)

Anonymous said...

2007: paranoid, middle aged, fat balding divorced white men who hate women spend hours on HP talking about Ron Paul and other nonsensical issues

prediction for 2008: more of the same

Edgar said...

And then he dismantles our military and we all get blown up at the hands of terrorists.

The terrorists? You mean the Bin-Bush-Ladens and Al CIA-da?

Tundra Kat said...

POLITICS
I predict the GOP nominee won't be any of the clowns competing in Iowa but a dark horse who jumps in later.

sac'to watcher said...

OK, you didn't specify long-term vs. short-term. Short term: Same BS, different day. Housing will continue to plummet in Euros but be hidden in dollar terms. Some pandering political hack will be president while the middle class continues to die in the US. Long term: Economy continues its downward slide along with the environment. Republicans keep running fascists for local and national office whilst the democrats keep pandering to their corporate masters. We head for a time where the value of copper jacketed lead will be greater than gold or platinum. This will be true world-wide (with the possible exception of Scandinavia - where houses have outnumbered people for some time already). Welcome to the Ecopocalypse.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

scottsdalerjack, you rock!

TM said...

My prediction for 2008 is that house prices will continue their slide, home loan, auto loan and credit card defaults will continue to rise, and 401k funds will continue to be raided.

Most importantly, I think the credit crunch will worsen, and will prompt a full-scale bailout of banks by the government.

Many municipal governments will go bankrupt, and state governments will temporarily shut down due to stalemates in legislative budget battles. This is what will likely catch the attention of the MSM and the general public.

FDIC said...

NYT headline Jan 21st:

BERNANKE CALLS IT QUITS!

Blames Global Financial Meltdown On Greenspan's Collusion With Neocons!

Anonymous said...

And then he dismantles our military and we all get blown up at the hands of terrorists.

Where do you come up with this islamo-fascist terrorist crap? Please explain how the trillions spent on the military has stopped anyone from being blown up by terrorists in the US. 9/11 happened due to a complete failure in a trillion dollar defense system. The warnings were there, the military was nowhere to be found that day.

Add to that Iraq. Which even Bush now admits (see the doco "Why We Fight") was not about terrorists or WMDs. You're still living in this fantasy land of islamic-fascist terrorism. Even that word "islamo-fascism" is ridiculous.

Even Bush admits that finding Osama bin Laden isn't a priority for him but that didn't stop him from invading two countries.

The plans for the Iraq invasion were in place long before 9/11. No ties between 9/11 and Iraq.

Doesn't that sound frickin bizarre to you if islamo-fascism is such a dire threat to Western civilization?

It's time to wake up from the fantasy land and understand that you've been taken for a ride America.

01/20/2009 end of an error. said...

John Edwards wins the Democratic nomination. Hillary is to polarizing and Obama is to stupid. I really don't care who the R is unless its Paul then I would look at him but reserve my vote.

New home sales fall to 400000 annual pace.

Existing homes falls below 4 million

Home prices continue to fall probably 10% next year and again in 2009.

Oil haven't a clue to many variables.

Gold I have about 2 lbs in old coins wouldn't buy any more for fear of confiscation.

Defaults in CRE, CC, and auto loans become problematic.

MSM finally figures out most everyone is subprime.

USA and Europe have a hard landing and stay in recession all of 2008 and most of 2009. How it is handled determines how deep it gets. Would bet it feels like a broken glass and nails enema to most.

Final prediction 2008 will probably suck all 12 months of the year.

2009 will have the largest party in history on 01/20/2009!!! BOOK IT!!!

George L said...

frank wrote:
"And then he dismantles our military and we all get blown up at the hands of terrorists."

with all due respect frank the only terrorist organizations we really need to worry about are gangs(18th street,Mexican mafia,bloods and crips and the Arian brotherhood).

the day we move away from oil and into solar and biodiesel which have made great advances(solar) in the last 5 years than ever before,we will never hear from these primitive countries again. if and when ron paul wins, he will use the troops for their true purpose,which is to protect our borders not the Iraqi borders.

I visit your blog once a week and really enjoy it. I agree with a lot of your opinions,but not this one frank.

Anonymous said...

KWEEFER I don't get your followers. They orgasm at the thought of Ron Paul. Yet 33% according to your poll would vote for Barack Osamabama, the polar opposite of Ron Paul with regards to fiscal issues. Ron Paul wants to abolish the IRS and cut govt spending, Osamabama wants to raise taxes and have the govt run every aspect of our lives.

This tells me your followers have no fucking clue what's what.


Acutally, you retarded realtroll chimp, it shows that people from all different walks of life are reading HP. Unlike you realtroll chimps, many people can make up their own minds and don't have to follow anyone. I will vote for Ron Paul even though I don't agree with him on everything. His word is not the Gospel. He is better than the status quo.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>>>You babboons keep saying nobody has any money. Nobody is spending. The depression is here. Now all of a sudden packed malls are part of a depression.
Damn you babboons are getting sillier by the hour.
December 29, 2007 11:08 PM

Puh-lease! These people are NOT spending with CASH! They are spending with credit cards or credit they have already taken from their homes...

Shopping, especially manic shopping is an addiction. It is a way for people to escape reality!

People with REAL money are spending BUT they have significantly CURVED their spending. Alot of shops in Westwood village, Brentwood, Burbank etc. that have been in biz for years catering to the wealthy have closed their doors.

But think about it for a moment: the people with real cash are only the top 3%. Even if you say 10%... that still leaves the remaining 90% of the U.S. population continuing to spend MONEY they don't have and haven't even earned! AND may NOT be able to pay-off!!!

So who will be saving the credit card companies??? When that ship sinks, huh?

Princess Mononoke said...

>>>And then he dismantles our military and we all get blown up at the hands of terrorists.
December 30, 2007 3:03 AM

Oh come on Frank! I can't believe you would say something like that... unless you were being sarcastic?

What GOOD was our military, CIA, FBI, INS, airport security and a dozen other under-cover secret agencies working for the United States of America when 9/11 happend???

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
2007: paranoid, middle aged, fat balding divorced white men who hate women spend hours on HP talking about Ron Paul and other nonsensical issues
prediction for 2008: more of the same"

Hmmm....full head of hair,beautiful wife, 4 beautiful children, lean cycling enthusiast, LOVE women but love my wife more. Far from being paranoid, I have been on track recognizing the meltdown before and as it developed.

Oh, and GO RON PAUL! Have you ever heard of standing for the right thing whether or not the sheeple will wake up and do the right thing?

Anonymous said...

"This tells me your followers have no fucking clue what's what."

I for one like Keith and think he is a stand-up guy, but I am not his "follower" and I doubt anyone else here is.

The "followers" are the idiots who made the biggest financial mistake of their lives because everyone else was doing it and they just KNEW they couldn't go wrong.

A little light reading for you -

http://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-Financial-Investment/dp/0471389455

chslaxcoach said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

2007: paranoid, middle aged, fat balding divorced white men who hate women spend hours on HP talking about Ron Paul and other nonsensical issues

prediction for 2008: more of the same

******

Hey, I'm not balding!

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

LMFAO!!! Let's tear apart what Happy Homedebtor with an option-arm about to reset said:

Phoenix is currently home to three major Fortune 1000 companies: electronics corporation Avnet, Apollo Group (which operates the University of Phoenix), and mining company Freeport McMoRan. Honeywell hosts many factories for the building of military grade engines, as well as their company network gateway in Phoenix. Intel has one of their largest sites in Arizona, employing about 11,000 employees and 3 chip manufacturing fabs, including the $3 billion dollar state of the art 300mm, 45nm Fab 32.

Minimum wage factory jobs. Intel's facility is an a dangerous crime-ridden ghetto section of West Mesa.

American Express hosts their financial transactions, customer information, and their entire website in Phoenix.

Minimum wage call-center jobs.

The area is also home to US Airways Group, a Fortune 500 company located in Tempe.

Starting salary for US Airways flight attendants is $17,500/year. They're the lowest paying in the industry. I know this because one who is a friend of mine quit to take a receptionist job which actually pays more.

Nearby Scottsdale is also home to Allied Waste Industries, Inc. (also listed on the Fortune 500), the second largest non-hazardous solid waste management company in the United States.

Garbagemen.

Phoenix is also home to the headquarters of U-HAUL International, a rental company and moving supply store.

That one speaks for itself - unskilled clerks at rental desks.

Dude, your post proves my point entirely. Phoenix is home to the lowest paying jobs in the country and has no real industry or economy.

Give it up already and admit that you live in an armpit.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Yes!,Frank@scottsdale-sucks,you too in 2008 can get a second chance in America,and come back to the Scottsdale you always wanted to be part of, but couldn't crack at your first attempt. After all,even Mike Tyson found redemption here.

LOL....

The mere fact that you Scottsdale people go completely insane every time I post is the biggest proof yet that everything I say is true.

If it wasn't, you wouldn't give a crap and you'd ignore me.

FYI - Everyone here laughs at Scottsdale as a pathetic sh*thole where you go as a purgatory when you can't afford to live in the real world.

Yoski said...

"And everything from a rainy summer to my broken shoelace is Bush's fault"
You mean it's not gonna be Clinton's fault anymore?

Yoski said...

"Predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future"
Yogi Berra

Housing: Similar to 2007. Another 10-15% decline in the bubble areas. No bottom in 2008.
Economy: More pain in banking/finacial, housing, service indusrtry, comsumer discretionary.
On the other hand, energy, precious metals, technology, comsumer staples and health care will outperform market.
Commodities: Oil will stay stubbornly high, get up to $120. Natural gas will have the biggest gains in 08.
Election: Obama beats Giuliani or Giuliani beats Clinton. Hard to say but it doesn't really matter all that much anyway.
More turmoil in the Middle East (that was an easy prediction!).
Stock market will be a wild ride, but will be up over the next 12 month. All that liquidity has to go somewhere and it ain't going into housing or somebody's matress.
Dollar will be further devalued as will other currencies. Strong fundamentals for precious metals.
Inflation on the rise world wide.
All in all not too terribly different from 07.

Anonymous said...

mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/loans/loans_lo.wmv

unomyname said...

A small but growing number of pundits begin to discuss the pros and cons of splitting the US. up into no more than four regions - Democrat and Republican strategists and members of their respective "think tanks" begin to discuss appropriate boundaries and power sharing arrangements with an emphasis on the Constitutional amendments needed to move forward with the plan.

Your Jewish Master said...

"2007: paranoid, middle aged, fat balding divorced white men who hate women spend hours on HP talking about Ron Paul and other nonsensical issues"

-While sitting in their Year 2000 bunker!!

And don't forget the the young mulletheads in their mom's basement!!!

"I predict that
rEaLToRs go INsAnE!"

Is GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD lurking here?

Anonymous said...

anon 6:28:

How come you babboons assume anyone who doesn't agree with your far right, anti-American, racist views must be realtor?

Anonymous said...

Wow there are people on this board who truly think Ron Paul will win. I'd laugh at you, but making fun of the retarded is not nice.

Anonymous said...

Hey Frank,

Does ANYONE in Phoenix NOT make minimum wage?

Dude you are seriously insane. And that is saying a lot given the level of crazy around here.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
>>>>You babboons keep saying nobody has any money. Nobody is spending. The depression is here. Now all of a sudden packed malls are part of a depression.
Damn you babboons are getting sillier by the hour.
December 29, 2007 11:08 PM

Puh-lease! These people are NOT spending with CASH! They are spending with credit cards or credit they have already taken from their homes...

----------------

Oh really? But I keep reading and have been reading on HP that there is no more credit out there. It's funny how you people argue both sides of an issue. One day nobody can get a heloc anymore. The next, everyone is at the mall using heloc money.

Well which is it?

One day it's creditcards are all maxed out. The next day it's everyone is at the mall spending on credit cards.

Which is it?

You all assume tha because 2% of the population is in foreclosure (5% of the 40% of the adult population who has a mortgage) the other 98% is broke as well.

Now be a good little conspiracy nut and go finish dusting off your Y2K bunker. I hear the Jews are planning an attack on your house this evening.

PeculiarTreasure said...

HEAD FOR THE HILLS!!!
What is happening here is truly Apocalyptic in nature. For years and years those so called Jeremiah types have been forcasting ultimate ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BREAKDOWN. Well I am jumping upon that bandwagon, because all I can see is across the board misery coming to America first,then it will soon spread to all the other nations. This housing catastrophy is the linch pin. Put your stock in prisons,funeral homes and cemetery's. Crime and death will be the norm. For those who think they have some place of comfort and won't experience the doom,think again. For those who think things will get better, don't hold your breath. THERE IS NO TURNING BACK NOW!!! My prediction as to how long before the last nail is put in America's coffin---WE WON'T MAKE IT PAST 2012.

Anonymous said...

In 2008:

31% of those polled at year end are going into debt to pay for groceries, gas and/or food.

17% of all homes are in foreclosure by 4th qtr

8 mass layoffs (over 10,000 each) hit in the financial and dependent sectors before 3rd qtr.

by year end, the only solvent bond insurer is Buffet's new enterprise.

The dollar declines by another 40%, inflation protects home prices somewhat, though in relative terms they fall 60% relative to gold.

snohomish said...

All in all a rough year, but some good will come.
Housing prices down 'officially' another 8%. 0 to 50% down depending on location
Fed Funds Rate - down to 3.0 by end of summer. Holds for rest of the year
Inflation 'officially' at an unhealthy 3.0% - 3.5%
Recession 'official' by end of summer. 0% grown in 1st quarter. Slight negative growth for remainder of year.
Stock markets down 10-15% with more daily wild swings than we have ever seen. Financials lead the stock market recover in late 2008
China stock market down 20% with the most damage occurring in the fall. Unrest in Asia
Several medium size banks fail; several mergers; Couple of bank run scares
Unemployment at 6.5%
Oil floats between $90 and $110 barrel. Gas hits a high of $4 but settles at $3.75 (the new norm)
UBL dead
US Soldiers in Iraq under 100k as the withdraw starts and Iraq struggles to her feet. New prez in 2009 to cut that number in half by 2010. We acknowledge the civial war issue and leave by 2012
Middle east remains status quo. Messed up, turmoil, some getting rich off oil, but no new major war
Hillary elected president; Ron Paul appointed a cabinet position (Treasury, Commerce, or Interior)
Dems control Exec, House and Senate after election

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Frank, Frank, Frank.....if your book is anything like your "analysis" of Phoenix area employment, you must be selling the majority of them to Realtwhores.

I'm really sorry for all your 30k millionaire friends in the DC Ranch area. Truly, I am, if they are so damn dumb that they didn't realize that nobody has ever taken a flight attendant job because the money was so fantastic. And I'm also sorry that they couldn't get jobs as engineers or directors at the companies listed like my friends have, because your buddies went to Orange County schools and majored in surfing. If they would have spent more time on their math skills than they spent on their tans, maybe they could have had a decent job, too.

Of course, the only mortgages any of your putz Californicator friends could have gotten were "Option ARM's that are about to reset." That's the only kind of loan that a NOKD like you would know about.

Ya see, Frank, when you have a bit of an education and a real career, plus money for a down payment, you have the "option" of a fixed rate 30 year....the standard plain vanilla loan that has been around since God was a child. I know, I know....you never met anyone who ever qualified for one. Maybe if you would have spent less time attempting to pick up barely legal chicks at Barcelona or Sapporo, you might have.

Let's take it a step further. If you had any kind of real financial intelligence, you would realize that sometimes....even now, for instance....it makes more sense to buy if your mortgage payment (the whole PITI thing) is cheaper than equivalent rent. Especially if this allows you to put the difference into additional savings. But, nah....we'll save the advanced thinking for another time. Maybe you'll get it then. I doubt it, but miracles could happen.....

BTW, Scottsdale used to be an armpit, but since you and the illegal aliens have started to bug out....it's gotten much nicer. Please keep up the good work and continue to whine about how horrible it all is! If it keeps out one Californicator like yourself, all Zonies will be eternally grateful!

W.C. Varones said...

The next shoe to drop: CarPANIC!

Andrew from Russia said...

A Black Swan Year, and perhaps the first glimpse of post-consumerist economy. We've just seen this consumer credit boom reach absurd proportions - with below-inflation (9% p.a.) car loans "to stimulate consumption". Yuck.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

paranoid, middle aged, fat balding divorced white men who hate women spend hours on HP talking about Ron Paul and other nonsensical issues.
___________________
Ahem, I am a hot boomer chick, HP Alumni member. Single and love men.
Don't broad brush the angry peeps into nonsensical categories.

If you do not like these issues, I am sure there is an art or cooking blog somewhere which will not offend thee.

Anonymous said...

happy homey,

Are illegals really going away? I've heard that because of that new law lots are leaving. If this is a real trend I just might consider moving to AZ myself. Falling housing, no illegals, good weather...

Anonymous said...

"Ahem, I am a hot boomer chick,"

translation: I am 45 lbs overweight but I've been watching "love yourself" shows on the WE channel and believe I am hot

Sorry honey, any woman over 30 is by definition not hot, no matter what Oprah says

Anonymous said...


2007: paranoid, middle aged, fat balding divorced white men who hate women spend hours on HP talking about Ron Paul and other nonsensical issues


LOL! You have to love liberals (the "white men" reference is a dead give away as to the writer's political leanings). They consider anyone who deoes not support the bail out of home flippers as evil. When libs can't argue that on merrit, they resort to name-calling. So pathetic.

Anonymous said...

"anon 6:28:

How come you babboons assume anyone who doesn't agree with your far right, anti-American, racist views must be realtor?"

This is by far the most moronic post I have seen on this site for quite some time.

LauraVella said...

Politics: John Edwards will drop out of the race when his affair hits mainstream media. All the candiates will deliberately make obvious policy mistakes during the primary election to not win. Each candidate realizing who ever becomes president, will be remembered as the worst president since Hoover.

*For the first time since 1928, in 2008 neither a sitting President nor Vice President will be a candidate for nomination to the Presidency.*

Housing: Prices will drop off a cliff by Summer 08' due to the excessive amount of home listings that continued to esclate since Febuary 2008...will be proclaimed the hightest number of homes listed in one quarter since the the early 1970's. RE Prices will be cut by 65% in the bay area and the market will hit bottom in 2016 And for the first time since the 1960's - renting will be considered more popular, and the "new American dream" - including freeing oneself from an anchor mortgage and hoarding cash, will become the new montra...topics of conversation during cocktail parties and get togethers will be discussions of opening accelerated interest savings accounts, Christmas Clubs will make a come back, talk of any other types of saving, investment accounts - anything with the word "savings" in it will be in demand.

Fed Policy: Feds will reinstate the gold standard in 2012, after the dollar sinks to a 75 year low.

eric in vegas said...

"Puh-lease! These people are NOT spending with CASH! They are spending with credit cards or credit they have already taken from their homes..."

They're spending all those gift cards that were bought with credit cards.

"Oh really? But I keep reading and have been reading on HP that there is no more credit out there. It's funny how you people argue both sides of an issue. One day nobody can get a heloc anymore. The next, everyone is at the mall using heloc money."

Banks don't want to lend to each other right now. Credit card companies are still happy to let consumer spend beyond their means. This will change once they figure out that many people have no intention to pay back the high balances.

You guys are asking for a meltdown overnight and it just doesn't happen that way. The bubble didn't blow up overnight and the downturn/recession won't happen overnight either. It takes time until one day you realize everything has built up to the current condition.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

anon @ 5:06, yep, they're leaving! It's going to be harder for them to get jobs, so there's no point for the illegals to stick around.

Of course....all we got there is minimum wage, call center jobs.... ;)

Anonymous said...

This blog=Great subject that should be discussed.

Many people commenting on this blog = angry people that should be out experiencing more in life other than hiding out on this blog getting all their frustrations out of their systems besides economic woes so that when they have something to say it can be insightful.

It's like you have to read 20 comments to find one that has something meaningful to say besides aimless rants.

vegas crash watcher said...

The gold bubble crashes.

The China bubble crashes.

The government bubble crashes.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

BTW, Scottsdale used to be an armpit, but since you and the illegal aliens have started to bug out....it's gotten much nicer

That's odd. I was there for Thanksgiving and the place looked terribly worse than when I left almost a year ago. Once-crowded strip malls were deserted, there were vacancies everywhere, the # of photo radar cameras has multiplied like roaches (because of sheeple like you who won't take a stand), etc etc etc.

If by "nicer" you mean the restaurants are no longer crowded and you can now go out on weekends without a reservation, okay, but realize that they're all closing one after another.

Downtown has gone from a thriving social life full of young professionals to a bunch of dirtbags in lowriders and wifebeater shirts, along with their drug dealers and prostitutes.

You Prozac-popping Scottsdale people never cease to amaze me. All I ever hear is "Scottsdale is so NIIIICCCEEEEE" but other than "shopping & restaurants" not one of you can articulate WHY it's nice.

Like Joe said, put down the crack pipe already, wake up, and realize what's happening to your "nice" community. And go pay those photo tickets to support Manross's corrupt government.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

happy homedebtor -

I just realized that arguing with you is pointless. For you, Scottsdale is perfect. It's heaven.

It's a big collection of people who live in a false reality, an illusion, in a little bubble where they think everything is so wonderful and nice, totally oblivious to reality.

It's a place where egomaniacal people can live together and believe they're in an affluent community, while badmouthing places like OC as bad, in order to backwards-rationalize the fact that they cannot afford to live there.

And make no mistake - ever since you posted about a month ago your opinion that renters are slime who live in trashy 1-br apartments, you proved that you're one of the Scottsdale insecure egomaniacs. Before that I enjoyed your posts and even thought they were intelligent, but on that day you lost all credibility.

Anyway, you're right. Scottsdale IS great. For you and people like you. You get to have your cheap living and at the same time believe it's "affluent."

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>>>Now be a good little conspiracy nut and go finish dusting off your Y2K bunker. I hear the Jews are planning an attack on your house this evening.
December 30, 2007 3:24 PM

>>>>How come you babboons assume anyone who doesn't agree with your far right, anti-American, racist views must be realtor?
December 30, 2007 2:54 PM
===========================

Call me whatever the f*ck you want, I really don't care. It doesn't bother me one iota. But I do need to take a little bite of your bait and respond to your remarks. For all I know you could be the new generation crank caller - 13 years old and trolling this blog. So here it is!

*Far right? I/we are NOT extremists. Come on!

*Anti-American? Not quite... why do you say this? Is it because I/we don't agree with the status quo??? There needs to be more transparancy in America! The TRUTH needs to be revealed for the good of ALL Americans...

*Rascist views? WTF?!? Where do you get rascist? yeah sure, there are a few that make rascist comments BUT NOT ALL 98% DON'T. This housing mess is affecting every color/race/creed. Trust me: this fall-out will NOT discriminate!

Anonymous said...

The anger is coming from the frustrated REIC trolls and failed flippers. They are lashing out in anger at those who are mocking them. Their anger should be directed towards the charlatans who sold them the American Dream of wealth without work.

Princess Mononoke said...

I had a prophetic dream two years ago and it was my wake-up call. I know the difference between a dream and a message.

I was walking through a residential neighborhood with a man, a spirit guide if you will. On both sides of the street there was a drop off. It appeared that we were walking in the hills because ALL of the homes were on long stilts and ALL of the homes were vacant. But we were NOT; we were walking on flat ground in the middle of the street.

Puzzled I asked the spirit guide, “Why are all these homes on stilts?” He said, “Because they were NOT built on SOLID ground and the unstable ground finally gave way”.

1) The depth of the stilts signified the STEEP decline in housing prices.
2) The sea of vacant homes signified people either loosing their homes or walking away because of the great loss in value.
3) The unstable ground signified well that should be obvious to all.

Princess Mononoke said...

My predictions for 2008:

1) TURMOIL
2) The ‘Power’s That Be’ will NO longer be able to contain the fall-out!
3) Fish out of water
4) Bush is counting the days he gets out of office and will give Americans the middle finger!
5) The TRUTH gets revealed and its NOT pretty!
6) Sheeple will be DAZED and CONFUSED...

Beignet said...

My Prediction is that all the Realtors and Mortgage Broker punks will work for credit card collection call centers.

This job market will most likely boom and they will migrate there.

Anonymous said...

Princess Mononoke,

I appreciate your sharing of your dream. My tuning in to intuitive impressions is a relatively new thing for me. It's uncomfortable, and sharing opens one to ridicule. I wouldn't be surprised to get some ridicule on this thread real soon. I don't have any agenda but it does relieve cognitive dissonance when things happen after feeling nuts for awhile. It's easier to just turn it off as far as not being made fun of. I'll keep listening though, for the sake of my family. I think a lot of people have received warnings, gut feelings, in their lives and have benefited by listening to those feelings. I should be clear though. Since having my intial intuition I have spent many hours backing that up reading everything I could find on the unraveling we are experiencing.

Best Regards,

"Inquiring Mind"

Princess Mononoke said...

Ground meaning 'Foundation'.

Anonymous said...

.


Gold UP


then down


then.....?


Oil Up


then down


then......?



The bolts holding Ron Paul's head on strip and his head falls off at a town meeting in Kankakee!


Osama will be loved by all libs and hosts his own 70's dance party show!


Hillary admitted to hospital for painful hairballs!


Oprah will.........who cares?



Realtors like a Jim Jones style Cult join hands and drink the Kool-aid in mass!!!


World wide celebration!!!!!



Those who escaped will be tied to a log and roundly buggered on CSPAN


That's all for now.



.

gringo said...

I'm 52 years old and plan to be out of here completely by the end of '08. The wife and I are going to Chile next month to close on RE north of Santiago. We found 20 hectares (about 50 acres) with a decent house and orchards for $375K.

The bullshit factor in the US of A is getting too high and I'm too old to put up with it any longer. Look around you and ask yourself is it really worth it? Make your move before they shut the doors.

Adios amigos!

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

If you had any kind of real financial intelligence, you would realize that sometimes....even now, for instance....it makes more sense to buy if your mortgage payment (the whole PITI thing) is cheaper than equivalent rent.

Wow, you're even dumber than I thought. The entire point of this is that the cost to "buy" the house I live in would be MORE THAN DOUBLE what I pay in rent. And that's just the mortgage, not even counting the taxes, insurance, HOA, and upkeep.

As is the case anywhere else in CA, AZ, NV, FL, etc etc etc etc.......................

When mortgage payments are in line with rent again, then I'll buy. For now I'll choose not to throw my money away.

eric in vegas said...

Home prices continue to fall.

Wamu and Countrywide will either go bankrupt, be bought out, or merge with other banks. Citi gets several stays of executions and sells larger stakes in the company to foreign "investors".

Indymac goes bye bye

Gas hits $4 by the summer, pulls back a little but goes to $4.25 by the end of the year.

Shoppers pay 30% more for the same amount of food they got this year at grocery stores; milk is $5 a gallon.

Credit card companies start to freak out as the amount of unpaid balances sharply increases. They start to cut off deadbeats and call in their debt.

Anonymous said...

Ohh I see so let me see if I get this right.

There is a credit crunch. Nobody is lending money. But consumers are at the mall using their gift cards that they got as presents from people who are broke but used credit cards to buy the gift cards.

Yeah that makes a whole lot of sense princess moonbat.

Just face it babboons, your doom and gloom conspiracy theories simply are not happening. Now I say once again, be good little nutjobs and go hide out in your Y2K bunkers. I'm sure you have lots of canned food and water from 12/31/99.

Anonymous said...

LONG LIVE COMMUNISM

LONG LIVE RON PAUL

LONG LIVE HP

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Frank, reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, is it? And you call yourself an author.

Ok....in tiny little words even a OC reject can understand.....

When it is cheaper to rent, you rent. When it is cheaper to buy, you buy.

The entire world does not consist of CA, NV, AZ and FL bubble markets. There are some places and some cases where buying does make more sense, even now.

I live in one of those places where it makes sense to buy for me, even now. My equivalent rent would be $300 more. You don't.

Therefore it makes more sense for me to buy, and more sense for you to rent.

And since I wouldn't even consider a HOA community (it's not if it will have a Nazi or two on the board, it's when...plus they have more control over you than your bank would), that's an irrelevant point.

You finally got that, dumbass? Or do I have to break out the pretty crayons and draw you a picture?

Anonymous said...

.




Ron Paul!


Now there's a wasted Vote!



.

eric in vegas said...

"There is a credit crunch. Nobody is lending money. But consumers are at the mall using their gift cards that they got as presents from people who are broke but used credit cards to buy the gift cards."

Again, you're asking for the recession to happen overnight when you know it's not going to. Right now it's BANKS that won't lend money to each other right now. Consumers won't be cut off or have a reduction in credit until the CC companies realize many of them can't pay off their balances. Stores are opening earlier and closing later than they ever have hoping to make their already low sales goals for the holiday season.

Dow (the thing you dopes cling to SO hard) is already down 80 points on news that exisiting home sales is down 20% from last year.

Anonymous said...

eric:

you babboons have been saying a recession/depression is coming for years. same bullshit argumnets that people are overextended, maxed on on the visa, etc.

and you want to talk stock markets? OK wise ass, nasdaq is up 10% for the year. I recall you babboons predicting a 1929 like crash earlier this year.

How did that all work out for you?

Now be a good little communist and go visit your Y2K bunker.

Anonymous said...

Steve says:

1) Unemployment will skyrocket. We will all see it happening around us. Gov. will report unemployment as 2%, Wall street rallies.

2) Inflation will run 12% (as in 2007). We will all feel it in our wallets. Gov. will report inflation as 3%. Wall street rallies.

3) Housing sales will fall off a cliff, prices will tank, REOs skyrocket. We will all see REOs pop up like weeds in our nieghborhoods. Gov. will release bogus numbers and skattered rosey housing news. Wall Street.....

Anonymous said...

Anon Dec 31, 2007 1:16 PM said...

"Just face it babboons, your doom and gloom conspiracy theories simply are not happening. Now I say once again, be good little nutjobs and go hide out in your Y2K bunkers. I'm sure you have lots of canned food and water from 12/31/99."

You obviously have "issues". Maybe you should get back to the counter and take orders. Look on the bright side of life, maybe you'll be able to get back to your RE job sometime in 2010.

Princess Mononoke said...

"Inquiring Mind"
December 31, 2007 12:43 AM

I'll post my response to your question on my Blog this Thursday.

****Happy New Year Everybody****

DanielWrong said...

Predictions for 2008:

On the political front, Giuliani will suffer withering character attacks and smear tactics from both the neocon and religious right factions of the Republicans as they push their candidate of choice: Mike Huckabee. Democrats will panic at about electablility of a Clinton and Obama, and, as a result, will nominate Edwards. The Edwards vs. Huckabee election will have a lower than average turnout. Huckabee will win by a very slim margin amidst record accusations of voter fraud.

Housing prices will continue to decline but at a slower rate as more and more would-be sellers decide to wait out the crash rather than list their houses. Though, both new and existing home sales will plunge dramatically.

Wall Street will have a few volatile days here and there, but will remain mostly unchanged as investors take a wait-and-see approach regarding the elections. Unemployment will rise slowly but steadily as retail companies hide their losses through layoffs. The price of gasoline will hover around 3 bucks a gallon for most of the year but will shoot up to 4 in the forth quarter as the oil companies celebrate Huckabee’s victory at the polls by reaming the American public.

In the world of entertainment, at least one major theater chain will disappear. The major TV networks will be suffering significantly by the end of the year and may even be looking to the government for a handout, while cable networks are rolling in dough.

Their will be a record amount of international travel as many Americans see impending economic hardships and want to go out with one last consumerisitic hoorah.

Predictions for 2009:

Americans realize that President Huckabee will be worse than Bush for the middle and working class. At the same time, retail companies run out of ways to hide their losses and report horrifying results for the 08 holiday season. The market practically collapses and wipes out the value of the Boomer’s 401Ks. By the end of the year, the middle class is rapidly vanishing.

Anonymous said...

I work for the State of Cali as a Prison Cop and due to lost tax revenue there will be a reckoning as the doors open for inmates in the lower levels meaning more crime...as I peek around me I'm thankful for what I have but I see many families struggling...The sad thing is most of the fucked people aren't to blame...Very young, women, the old and the handicap.

Like always those who bring in the least in taxes will be fucked the most.

It stands to reason that Darwin's theory is at play...but as person who does believe in right or wrong there is a taste of injustice to it.

I agree that those who give the least should be the first to be cut off but it will also cause a circle of misery that will affect those who weren't affected economically...Best of wishes to all and hold tight to those you love.

Anonymous said...

My prediction for 2008 are:

1. After some economic turbulence in November 2008 we hit a big rebound. Our economy recovers and we begin the next level of prosperity.

2. Mike Huckabee wins the Presidency and begins a new era of true compassionate conservatism.

3. The real estate market does not collapse and continues to increase in value but at a more reasonable rate of 2 to 3 percent for several years.

4. All of the "gloom and doom" predictions don't come true and blogs like this one will continue to tell their readers that "gloom and doom" is near.

Lyndon LaRouche said...

and you want to talk stock markets? OK wise ass, nasdaq is up 10% for the year. I recall you babboons predicting a 1929 like crash earlier this year.

And it's down almost 50% for the decade. Boy youre smart.

Lyndon LaRouche said...

December 31, 2007 (LPAC)-- American statesman Lyndon LaRouche said today that Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan's dire New Year's Eve warning that "something unexpected" will happen soon, which will "knock us all down," provides the true setting for the unleashing of chaos by a faction of the Anglo-Dutch financial oligarchy, which is now occurring around the world. LaRouche pointed to Pakistan, Southwest Asia, Kenya, South Africa, Yemen, and the FARC/Chavez moves in Ibero-American as in-progress chaos operations run by the Anglo-Dutch financier crowd. Greenspan's NPR interview, reported in MoneyNews.com today, quoted him, "What I have to forecast is that something will happen which is unexpected, which will knock us down ...The odds of that happening, I think, are rising, because we are getting in vulnerable areas."

Lyndon LaRouche said...

gringo said...
I'm 52 years old and plan to be out of here completely by the end of '08. The wife and I are going to Chile next month to close on RE north of Santiago. We found 20 hectares (about 50 acres) with a decent house and orchards for $375K.
==================================
Does the name General Augosto Pinochet ring a bell with you? Chile could have a fascist revival in a second and simply take your property.

You cant run from this thing because it is everywhere. The safest place to be is right here in the United States. We are the only constitutional republic on this planet.

Anonymous said...

Predictions from Scottsdale:

A Democrat will be elected president but the war will drag on through the entire term. We will be sucked into a nightmare in the region that will cause oil to hit 180 bucks a barrel by 2009. We will be putting out fires, and the new president will be "diplomatic" so look for another "Carter lay down diplomacy" route. All the while our troops will be running around the region.

Gas will be 4 bucks a gallon by may of 2008, and after the election a ramp up to 5 bucks by May 2009.

The mud and sticks that the Bush administration is using holding the economy from collapsing during his term will unravel in the first year of the new president. The nightmares that have been hidden will be pointed out and all democrats will be blamed. The republicans will complain that nothing is being done.

Houses will continue to drop in value in a deep death spiral that will have many homeless. No relief until 2015.

Credit card companies will be decimated.

Look for two big bank failures and ensuing crisis/government intervention.

Five major homebuilders will be out of business.

Walmart is the largest employer in Arizona and still will be in 2008.

No rain in the winter of 2007, and made worse by no rain in the winter of 2008 will cause water rates to skyrocket, and grass will start being converted to granite.

Lake Powell will fall to less than 40% full by fall of 2008. Lake Mead will fall below the current intakes for Las Vegas water, prompting the new intakes to be rushed even faster to completion.

eric in vegas said...

"and you want to talk stock markets? OK wise ass, nasdaq is up 10% for the year. I recall you babboons predicting a 1929 like crash earlier this year."

Ahahahaha. Nasdaq? Fucking nasdaq?

Anonymous said...

"3. The real estate market... continues to increase in value."

How does it CONTINUE to increase when it's DECREASING NOW?

"4. All of the "gloom and doom" predictions don't come true and blogs like this one will continue to tell their readers that "gloom and doom" is near."

I believe in great and wonderful things in the future, but I don't believe that the behavior exhibited by Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, Banks, The Fed, Home Speculators, et al will go unpunished, and we will all suffer for it. The after effects of this greed spree must play out.

Recognizing and talking about what others have wrought is being a realist. If I see a terrible car wreck ahead and I pull off the freeway with my family and avoid tragedy, am I a gloom and doomer or am I being wise?

Do you blame those of us who saw what was coming and chose to step out of the way? I, like Keith, look forward to the day when neighbors care about each other, where houses are places to live in, and when this insane materialism comes to an end. If you want to label those aims gloom and doom, so be it.

Peahippo said...

In 2008, DOPES will still be singing the praises of each false rally in the stock market. EACH AND EVERY ONE. He, she or they will never call the bottom, since in that perspective, there was no crash in the first place.

Then in 2009, it gets worse, but DOPES will continue with the same rhetoric.

Anonymous said...

December 31, 2007 (LPAC)-- American statesman Lyndon LaRouche

--------

Statesman? Uhm yeah whatever. More like paranoid nutjob,AKA typical HP reader.

keith said...

Here ya go:

* Romney and Edwards win Iowa (Ron Paul takes third in Iowa)

* McCain and Obama win NH (Ron Paul takes second in NH)

* Bloomberg runs

* Obama / McCain / Bloomberg election. Bloomberg wins.

If Bloomberg doesn't run, Obama is the next President

On housing, US median price falls 10% in 2008

On stocks, no idea on the averages, but watch for builders, banks, lenders and investment houses to fail and merge. CFC, IMB and WM are first up

And yes, New England will win the superbowl, playing Green Bay, in a tight one

On politics, stocks and football I may be completely wrong. On housing, that's pretty obvious

Happy New Year HP'ers

Anonymous said...

Prediction:

Hitlery wins.

The day after dailykos, HP, NY Times and the rest of the communists have wild party. Two days later cancer is cured, poverty is history, housing soars 20%, peace is achieved in the middle east, cats like dogs, lions are friends with gazelles and the planets are alligned for eternal world peace.

Anonymous said...

Kweefer you are correct...you have no idea what youre talking about. I have a better chance of winning than Obama.

Seriously dude an ultra liberal, black man whose middle name is Hussein...yeah that will happen.

As for Ron Paul 3rd or 2nd...maybe if there are 3 or 2 people running. Dude will get 2%. You have to remember most of his fans are 18 year old college kids. They will be too stoned, drunk, hung over to vote or will have a mid-term or some bowl game will be on. Voting is about the last thing on their list of things to do.

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgtpxBPYnvE

50% off homes and still no bottom

Anonymous said...

HA HA. Ron Paul out of debates.
About time this. This freak has been given way too much attention.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/
12/31/debate.limits.ap/index.html

Malcolm said...

Keith:

I agree with Obama/McCain, but I don't think Bloomberg (if he runs) will win.

If he does run, it will affect the percentages, but even still I'm predicting that Obama will win; taking maybe 43 states.

keith said...

On Bloomberg, both parties are wildly unpopular, Independent is now the largest voting bloc, Congress's approval rating is in the teens, and people are gonna be PISSED at the elected leaders who helped cause the housing crash

If an independent was ever going to run - and win - it'd be Bloomberg. The time is right and he'd outspend the Democrat and Republican combined.

If he runs. Still a big IF there.

Iowa - Romney and Edwards - I should get some good credit if that pick pays off. Iowa has been and will always be about on the ground GOTV, not about polls. Just ask Howard Dean. And Ron Paul will surprise, as his supporters are wildly motivated. And in NH, independents and democrats can vote in the GOP primary - polls aren't capturing that.

Russ DoGG said...

The City of Detroit already had financial prpoblems. But some new accounting standards that are supposed to take effect this year or last year should fina;ly do it in.

The new regs are to force municipalities to recognize (on the books)the health care liabilities to retirees as a present liability. ACtuarial methods are supposed o be used to create a present value for obligations. Detroit and many other cities are vulnerable to this because they have large number of retirees and have shrunk in recent times.

Two Detroit Free Press / Detroit News editorials had pointed this out years ago- before RE crashed. If they can't circumvent the accounting rules they are seriously toast because tax revenues are just getting smaller since then.

But the mayor is a master BS artist and has continually obfuscated this and other edicts coming from racist white peoples. So maybe he can keep it submerged for another year.

Anonymous said...

Bloomberg as prez? Yea a Jew from NY city. That will be a huge vote getter in the South and midwest. Dude stick to housing, you have no idea what you're talking about on any other topic.

keith said...

Hint for the anti-semite against Bloomberg - you only need to win a few states to win the presidency

$1 billion goes a long way in California, Florida, New York and New Jersey

I suggest you read up on the electoral college

Remember, I called the Dems winning the house and senate last go-round.

And remember, I'm not in favor of my predictions happening. I'm just telling you what's going to happen.

Anonymous said...

ICEMAN,

Gold price reaches $1400

Oil surpasses $100 a barrel jan-feb

Housing prices decline 15%-20%

Stock market starts to take on massive water in jan-feb. as corporate profits take hit, unemployment numbers move past targeted 370,000 mark, massive writedowns, corporate bankruptcies
and layoffs begin. Violent swings of 1%-2% = bear market.

Several states declare fiscal emergency due to financial woes.

AVG. mortgage rate touches under 6% then bounces up sharply.

Car and credit card defaults become mainstream and move sharply.

First big banks implode, those tied to homebuilding construction loans as builders go belly up.

European Markets take drastic downturn as housing plunges and inflation spreads.

$5.00 MILK
$4.50 GAS
$3.00 EGGS
$25.00 SILVER

RUSSIA, IRAN, CHINA, SYRIA, TURKEY,
GERMANY, GREAT BRITAIN begin peaceful talks and set stage for future events.

Third world countries massive unstabilization.

Ron Paul picks up steam in August and suffers mysterious heart attack. Pronounced dead 2 days later.

Serious international event happens in the fall to confuse sheeple.

The NEW YORK GIANTS win superbowl as Eli Manning throws 5 tds and achieves 154 passer rating. Tom Brady throws 2 picks and fumbles on last drive.

Happy New Year Iceman

Edgar said...

Bloomberg, yeah, everyone is lining up to vote for a maggot billionaire. Oust the bush crime family!

Anonymous said...


First big banks implode, those tied to homebuilding construction loans as builders go belly up.


Are there any that didn't get involved? Wells Fargo and Bank of America are supposed to be conservative, but gave out tens of billions in piggybacks and HELOCs.

Bushlover said...

The last thing anyone is expecting. Bone crushing deflation. Defaults on debt all around wipe out the financial markets. Then the Bush-Cheney Crime Families start printing money to pay the bills.

Anonymous said...

"Hint for the anti-semite against Bloomberg - you only need to win a few states to win the presidency"

I wrote that and I'm 1/2 Jewish Kweefie. I also know that no way in hell is a Jew getting elected president.

"$1 billion goes a long way in California, Florida, New York and New Jersey"

Sure it does. And he may very well get 15 or 20% of the vote in those states. Doesn't mean he'll win any of them. And say he wins all of em you need 270 to win. All those combined are 120ish. Not even close. And he'll get nothing outside those 4 states which goes back to my original point.

It's funny how you bitch and moan about money in politics yet you are hoping a guy runs and spends $1B to buy an election. Just goes to show how unbalanced you people are. Hell 50% of your readers think Ron Paul will win Ioaw. I mean come on people, do you have any sense of reality at all?

Oh and you predicted Dems would win in 2006? Wow you really went out on a limb there. I mean hell, nobody else predicted that. It was a shock to everyone.

Anonymous said...

Here's the Year End Summary for you all out there.

Dow up 6.43%
Nasdaq up 9.41%
S&P 500 up 3.53%

In the meantime:
Dollar Index down 7.96%
Oil up 57%!
GLD up 30%
Euro up 11.14%
BEARX up 10.04%
PBW up 59% (Alternative Energy is kicking ass right now!)

I just calculated my portfolio went up almost 21% in 2007. So I would like to ask the trolls to please stop posting how much we suck because the Nasdaq went up 10%

Anonymous said...

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEE IN 8 OR 9 YEARS AT 10 PERCENT RISES , I WILL BREAK EVEN ON MY YEAR 2000 NASDAQ INVESTMENT

Your Jewish Master said...

"Hint for the anti-semite against Bloomberg - you only need to win a few states to win the presidency"

Oh yeah, he's a real anti-semite, Keith. I don't think Bloomberg stands a chance, and I don't think a Jew will ever be President. And to top that off, having a Jewish President would play right into the paranoia regarding the "Jewish Conspiracy", so it's probably not a great idea to have one.

Does that make me an anti-semetic, self hating Jew?

Anonymous said...

I predict we have an economic collapse of gigantic proportions. Men, women and children will all be homeless and there will be no food. People will have riots over food. Gold will go up to $10,000,000 per ounce and keep going up. Keith and all of the other HP'ers will be happy hiding in their mama's basement eating crackers and canned foods while the rest of America suffers.

Anonymous said...

I predict economic times will be a little rough but nothing serious will happen and all of the HP'ers and gloom and doomers will continue to post that the end is near.

Anonymous said...

We are the only constitutional republic on this planet.

This is completely and totally laughable. The constitution has been used as toilet paper for the last 7 years.

Anonymous said...

More Neocons are thrown out of office as conservatives reject their empire-building schemes. As a result, the Socialists take over and push their affirmative racism and slave reparations bills through along with a huge Wall Street bailout to save the 2008 bonuses.

Anonymous said...


We are the only constitutional republic on this planet.

This is completely and totally laughable. The constitution has been used as toilet paper for the last 7 years.


You are completely and totally ignorant. The constitution has been used as toilet paper since Woodrow Wilson put The Fed in power and the IRS was created.

Paul E. Math said...

Predictions:

Median home price falls between 5 and 10% in US.

Patriots win the superbowl. Celtics win the nba championship and redsox repeat world series victory.

Recession is declared in the 1st half of the year, identified as having begun either Q407 or Q108. Stagflation.

Dow will end the year down by as much as 10%.

USD will continue slow decline.

Commodities, especially precious metals and energy, will continue to rise v. the USD.

Hitlery/Edwards will be the next president and veep and bring new meaning to the word 'divisive'.

Bernanke grabs his ankles and makes several interest rate reductions. Mortgage rates rise since noone wants to hold a usd-denominated mbs.

Anonymous said...

We enter a period of stagflation much like the 1970's with a long bear market and high energy prices and a low national morale. After 6-8 years of misery, we have a crash much like the early 1980's with double digit inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. The hard partying youth of America will face some real pain and the millions of baby boomers who thought they could retire on their home price and securities appreciation will be fighting for jobs at WalMart. The world will go on, but invest in guns and ammo just in case things fall apart.

Anonymous said...


Americans realize that President Huckabee will be worse than Bush for the middle and working class.


Both parties are worse for the middles class. The Neocon Party robs from the middles class to give to the rich. The Socialist Party robs from the middle class to buy votes from the lazy shiftless herds in the ghettos and barrios. Watch out for the rednecks in the trailer parks. They have lots of guns and know how to use them.

No More Bush or Clinton said...

I predict that the sheeple will still not realize that for the last 10 years the oval office has been a carousal for the Bush/Clinton white house strangle-hold and vote Hillary into office. Come now folks ...Wake up and see that your vote does not mean jack if you keep towing the line for the same...lame...people. NO ONE FAMILY SHOULD OCCUPY THE WHITE HOUSE IN THE SAME CENTURY...PERIOD. Just look at how Jr turned out and think how bad 4 years of another Clinton would be. Obama? Please...I would vote for my mechanic before him. Where do they get these candidates? Who ordains them to be the chosen ones? Just asking...

Alan P. said...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of previously owned homes nudged up in November, but that didn't improve the broader picture of a feeble housing market racked by record-high foreclosures and harder-to-get credit.

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses rose 0.4 percent in November from October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units. Even with the small increase, the pace of sales was still the second-lowest on record going back to 1999. The lowest pace -- 4.98 million -- was registered in October.

''There's little reason to pop open any champagne corks,'' said Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research Inc.
url

celtic said...

Keith,
Your instincts are absolutely correct.

1)If Bloomberg runs he’s got an overwhelming chance to win.(he runs the largest city in the world and is doing a fantastic job, makes Giulianis achievements look like chump change)
2)That ½ Jew is indeed an anti-semite.
3)‘The south / bible belt’ will surprise the elites, who always accuse them of being racists.
4)Your Jewish Master said: ‘having a Jewish President would play right into the paranoia regarding the "Jewish Conspiracy", so it's probably not a great idea to have one.’….. it is the exact opposite…in all of history when Jews stand up for themselves it naturally defuses ‘the paranoia regarding the "Jewish Conspiracy",’
5)Israels weakness in dealing with the Arab,’Palastinian cause’ in the past decade has re-awakened anti-semitism in Europe, which was practically gone; back in the days when Israel was tuff.
6)A couple of days ago, 40 Jews who escaped from Iran arrived in Israel after a 1-year clandestine operation funded by a Christian/Jewish alliance group,.. just 1 example of how it was ‘the south’ that came to the rescue. once again, it was not the ‘nice and appeasing jews’ who delivered anything tangible.
7)The paranoia regarding the "Jewish Conspiracy" goes on, regardless of reality whether jews are successful or not, that is why they are the ultimate losers.


But I personally hope Bloomberg does not run, because he would be weak on Israel.

Anonymous said...

AL_QUAFFER:

That's rich you calling someone anti-semetic when 2/3 of your readers are aryan nation types who think jews run the world.

Any time one of your followers says neocon this or neocon that he means the jews this or the jews that.

Wake up man, you are running a White Power blog and don't even realize it.

Natural Eyebrows said...

There will be a change in accounting rules for banks. The banks will no longer be required to put repossessed collateral up for sale immediately. They will be allowed to put houses taken in foreclosure up for rent and treat them as performing assets. Instead of mark to market, we will have Mark to Fantasy.

Casey Serin and Donald Trump will see great opportunity in this development, and will team up to create a new property management company that caters to banks holding repossessed properties.

detroit 2.0 said...

Cleveland's population drops below 400,000. The entire east side south of I-90 and east of E.30th is walled off into a massive landfill/debtor's prison. Armed barricades on W.117th and any section 8 trash attempting to cross into Lakewood are shot on sight.

Anonymous said...

Credit card companies start to freak out as the amount of unpaid balances sharply increases. They start to cut off deadbeats and call in their debt.

But I am a deadbeat. I pay my balance every month and haven't paid those vultures a penny in interest in years. Guess they will find out what a real deadbeat is.

Anonymous said...


Instead of mark to market, we will have Mark to Fantasy.


News Flash: We already have that. It's called level 2 assets.

Level 1 = mark to market
Level 2 = mark to model (aka myth)
Level 3 = unable to determine (mark to fantasy)

eric in vegas said...

The American consumer will discover that they can live within their means and still have a nice lifestyle.

smokester said...

"My other prediction is that the market does go to 15K this year"

does 15K matter? it's only a 10% YOY increase! so what can it do for the economy?

the exciting times were when the market went from $1000 to $2000 to $4000 to $8000 but it's struggling to double again! If I see $30K in my lifetime, that would be amazing!

Emmy said...

I think it will be Edwards versus Mc Cain, because in the end, is Obama really electable? Is Hillary really electable? If it is Obama vs Huckabee, Bloomberg may try to step in, becaues really is Huckabee electable?
House values go down in fits and starts, the economic pain continues and deepens so that no one can deny it.
Gas creeps to $5.00/gal and stays there.
Stock market hangs in there, slipping slowly, because there are lots of forces at work to keep it high, not all legit.
People trade in the SUV for a cheap
little car.
Detroit wilts a little more, which is kind of hard to imagine.
Really unkind inflation hits and people start moving in with family, or taking people in just to make ends meet.
Some do well with inflation, pay of the rest of their loans, and start acquiring "stuff" for future barter. They should do this quietly as lots of others will be very resentful at having lost so much.
Hello repeat Weimar inflation.
A very difficult year in store.

uknowwhoiyam said...

ATTENTION!

Fox News has decided to exclude Ron Paul from the next televised debate!

It's not too late to get them to change their mind.

I invite you to join me: write to Fox News and DEMAND that they make room for Paul!

Feedback@foxnews.com

Help spread the word, Keith.

Anonymous said...

Romney on Reagan/Bush

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3...h? v=3hmzEtCHP0Y

Anonymous said...

Home prices drop to pre 1999 levels with no end in sight. oh wait...its already happening in the IE and FL....stay tuned

liberal seer said...

Bush will decide to donate his brain to science for the study of inanimate dark matter.

Cheney will be nominated by the Screen Actor's Guild for best supporting actor in a corporate training film.

Karl Rove will undergo corrective surgery for sexual ambiguity.

Mitt Romney will discover Joseph Smith's prophetic diary in his yacht house during a remodeling project - it will reveal the need for a vote recount in Iowa...

theloknesmonster said...

Anything that is considered in your monthly nut like:

Groceries
Gas
Insurance
Pet Stuff
Personal Grooming
Clothing
Utilities
Car/Home Maintenance
Property Taxes
Interest

Will increase in cost 10%-15% by early 2009.

House prices won't decrease enough to make it worthwhile to buy. The reason is because sellers are still either stubborn or stupid.

Clinton will win the election.

I will consider killing myself because Clinton wins the election.

Stock markets basically end 2008 flat after an entire year of fairly wild fluctuations.

Packers play New England tough in the Superbowl but come up a little short.

Anonymous said...

June 2008:
Credit is cut off for the deadbeats and they will jump off the cliff in a frenzied panic.

The next few years:
Credit will only be available to those who don't need it.

watch-your-back said...

2008 Predictions.

Fed keeps printing massive amounts of "paper" to "monitize" the mountain of existing debt thus screwing the debt holders.

Other major central banks around the world continue to also crank up their printing presses in a desperate attempt to fight a deflationary global recession. In December 07 alone they added over 1/2 trillion dollars.

This will of course create another "bubble." It won't be in the stock market this time, or the housing market.

The next great and final bubble will be in gold as confidence is lost in all "paper" currencies.

Although stock and home prices may stabilize or even rise, the purchasing power of the middle and low class will be decimated.

Gasoline, food, health care, etc will rise slowly at first and will hardly be noticed...but by the time the pain is really being felt it will be too late as inflation really takes hold.

The gov't will continue to print false statistics and Bush, Bernanke, etc will all say things are just fine and that the worst is over.

The "smart money" will have moved out of "paper" and bonds and in to "hard" assets to protect their buying power as the "savers" holding US dollars and other "fiat" currencies are led slowly to the slaughterhouse.

---Oh yeah, Hilary and Obama will team up and go after the "rich" making over $80k. Halfway through their term however, this will be the average US household income as wage inflation takes root.

Good luck to everyone in the new year...and most of all it's not how many dollars you have, it's your purchasing power.

Anonymous said...


Any time one of your followers says neocon this or neocon that he means the jews this or the jews that.


And in actual reality, Jews voted 3-1 for Kerry over Bush.

Neocon, paleocon, whatever. The Jew, AIPAC, Osama, whoever isn't the problem.

The Republican party is the problem.

Hillary isn't the solution.

Edwards might be.

TM said...

and you want to talk stock markets? OK wise ass, nasdaq is up 10% for the year. I recall you babboons predicting a 1929 like crash earlier this year.

How did that all work out for you?


The people who are predicting a 1929-like crash probably have much of their money in gold, which is up 28% for the year, so I think it worked out pretty well for them.

Why don't you set the rest of us up to be schooled, and give us your super-cool NASDAQ stock picks for 2008? Or, if you're into some sort of index fund, just let us know, so we can fume with jealousy when the NASDAQ continues to rage and your stocks or funds really deliver for you this year.

Anonymous said...

China will allow the yuan to rise quickly to offset the rising cost of commodities and inflation caused by an overheated economy. In doing so, the prices of chinese made goods will rise. This event will cause a round of inflation and interest rate hikes in the US. US retail and service industries will see a big slow down in 2008. ARM loans will see big hikes starting in mid 2008. By late 2009, high inflation will halt and reverse the nominal price slide in the housing market. Unemployment will creep up 0.2% every month on average till 2009 (unemployment will actually be higher but the US govt likes to reclassify some of the unemployed as independent contractors). The US Military will exceed their recruitment goal.

Anonymous said...

Stocks closed out 2007 with gains. The Dow gained 6.4 percent, the S&P 500 added 3.5 percent and the Nasdaq rose 9.8 percent.

Double for 2008!

sammythebarber said...

Real estate will level off and begin a slow recovery during the second half of 2008. Banks are taking the hit now so they won't have to report them in the future. Banking on the stupidity of the American public this same scenario will start once again in 2008-2009.

nnj said...

http://www.ericbramlett.com/worst-realtor-photos.php

-----------------------------------
Those pics are just so bad. These people are professionals I guess.

What really scares me is how many people, their clients, take their financial advice. No wonder we have a growing mortgage problem here in the US and no one can pay their bills.

Mammoth said...

Loch Ness Monster said…
“Anything that is considered in your monthly nut like:

Groceries
Gas
Insurance
Pet Stuff
Personal Grooming
Clothing
Utilities
Car/Home Maintenance
Property Taxes
Interest

Will increase in cost 10%-15% by early 2009.”
---------------------------
This is how you can survive this:
Groceries – Buy whatever is on sale and stock up. Also, quit eating the prepared crap and start making your meals from scratch. You will be healthier if you make this a habit. (Don’t have time to make your meals? Try finding the “Off” button on your TV.)

Gas – Dump the gas-guzzler and buy something more economical. Drive less by taking care of all your errands in one outing.

Insurance – When was the last time you even bothered to read your statement? Lower your rates by raising your deductable.

Clothing – When was the last time you visited the Thrift Store? You can find clothes that look brand-new there, for a fraction of the retail cost.

Utilities – Throw on a sweater and urn down the heat. Install CFL bulbs, and learn to turn off the light when you leave the room. Convince your loved ones to give up their 45-minute showers.

Car/Home Maintenance – Drive less, and the car won’t need maintenance as frequently, Change the oil & spark plugs yourself - getting your precious hands dirty won’t kill you. Fire the landscaper and mow the lawn yourself. Same for cleaning the roof & gutters.

Property Taxes – Challenge your assessmen, and bring recent RE data as a backup. Did you know that 30% of the people who fight their assessment win a reduction in taxes?

Interest – Pay down your debt, control your spending and quit taking on new debt!

Good luck with your finances in the new year, but don’t just rely on luck to get yourself through it.
-Mammoth

Keyser Soze said...

President - Hillary
SuperBowl - Pats
DJIA - 11500
S&P - 1350
Oil - $120
CitiCorp - $45
BAC - $55
gasoline - $4.25
Housing - down another 10%

That is all.

SeattleMoose said...

1. Blogs banned for "national security" reasons
2. Government comes out with new slogan "We're All In This Together" as excuse to jack taxes to pay for Bush War and Bank Bailout
3. Cheney dies of heart attack to world wide celebration
4. U.S. enters recession
5. RE prices drop another 15% during year
6. Ads for "luxury items" and for travel increase
7. Financial meltdown spreads around world
8. Talk of a global currency as possible solution
9. Every talking head RE shill who in 2007 was a RE bull, now says "we saw it all along"
10. Government stages another terror event to try and mobilize country for continued "war" against....fill in the blank.
11. Camps for growing homeless population spring up with usual results...crime and disease
12. The same government and financial "leaders" who let this all happen start floating solutions that further erode our standard of living and personal freedoms
13. Most vocal opponents to Government/Financial industry have heart attacks, car wrecks, and plane crashes

It is going to be a bad year made worse by the simple fact that solutions will be put forward by the very same people on whose watch this all happened.

LASwami said...

Predictions for 2008:

1) Michael Bloomberg will launch a third-party Presidential bid by February or March. The result will be election of the next President by the House of Representatives. Neither he, nor the Democratic or Republican nominees will be elected, however.

2) The Republicans will be slaughtered in the November general elections, but the Democrats will not necessarily be rejoicing. They will face many serious issues with no convenient solutions...things are really much worse that anybody's let on and none of the current Democratic/Republican leadership is equipped to think in ways that will be required to devise solutions.

3) The 2008 Summer Olympics will be an international embarassment for China, which will react with a belligerent burst of xenophobia.

4) The "mortgage meltdown" officially becomes a "credit meltdown". The contagion spreads to auto loans and credit cards. We approach a "critical mass" in real estate where the volume of unsold foreclosed and abandoned properties becomes so great that a fire sale happens, with home prices dropping nationwide by 30% to 40%.

5) Several states, already poorly managed by incompetent politicians, will default on bond payments. Some will have to close parts of their higher education system (colleges and universities) in order to remain solvent.

6) The Fed will cut rates by at least 1%, but they will quickly be shown to be irrelevant. The Federal government will go into the bail-out business. This will cause the US to withdraw from Iraq. We simply won't be able to afford it anymore.

7) Taxes will begin to rise. This will continue for the next several years as the Bush tax cuts will be allowed to expire.

8) Another 100,000 people will lose their jobs in the housing/real estate/lending complex. A number of big lenders will not fail as previously thought, but will be significantly reduced in size.

9) Some parts of the economy will hardly be touched by all of this. Probably tech and healthcare, among others.

10) The world officially becomes multi-polar as America turns inward, pre-occupied by it's internal problems. The rest of the world will scratch it's head over the resulting leadership vacuum.

11) There will be civil war in Pakistan.

12) Castro will die. The US will lift it's embargo.

13) The melting of the polar ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet will accelerate.

14) There will be a military and political confrontation with Russia over claims to Arctic ocean oil.

Anonymous said...

Georgia wuz robbed by not getting in the BCS championship game

Oh and housing down another 8% nationwide. Down another 19% in Florida and 22% in Phoenix.

Go Dawgs

Anonymous said...

the exciting times were when the market went from $1000 to $2000 to $4000 to $8000 but it's struggling to double again! If I see $30K in my lifetime, that would be amazing!

------

UGH. I hate when people give advice and yet don't even get the basics. The dow is not a dollar value. It's an index. When you say dow at 11,000 it doesn't mean it's worth $11,000.

As for doubling in your lifetime, I don't know how old you are. I'm 31 and I'm sure it will double in my lifetime, and many times.

Beween 1920 and today dow jones went from 100 to 13,500. That means it doubled 7 times in less than 90 years. And this included a world war, the great depression, oil shocks, .com boom and bust, several recessions, several real estate booms and busts, presidential assasinations, you name it. And yet still up it went and doubled every 10 years or so on average.

bank dick said...

"As for doubling in your lifetime, I don't know how old you are. I'm 31 and I'm sure it will double in my lifetime, and many times.

Beween 1920 and today dow jones went from 100 to 13,500. That means it doubled 7 times in less than 90 years."


The DOW used to represent accumulated wealth. Today it's largely a tribute to accumulated debt. Adjusted for inflation, the DOW has increased by a factor of 100 since 1800 -- a whopping return of 2.25% on average. Whoohooo!

Anonymous said...

15) Television will be obsolete in 20 years. So will cell phones, faxes, radios, pagers, beepers, PDAs, and Blackberries. Everything will be available via portable, wireless, information appliances. There will still be some movie theaters open for nostalgia buffs, but in the future, when a movie opens, it will open thru all distribution channels simultaneously. Broadcast television will be news, weather, infomercials and talk shows. All other content will be narrow-casted over cable or the internet. Probably both. The networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, et al) will be history. Programming will be available on a ala carte basis to consumers. The distributors (successors to the networks and Hollywood studios) will buy programming that way from independent production companies; similar to the way people pitch new products to Wal-Mart. The current writer's strike is the official starting point for this transformation.

16) The large number of Iraq battle casualties resulting in the loss of limbs has/will stimulate research to the point that within 15 to 20 years, technology will be developed to overcome all stroke-related paralysis and allow paraplegics/quadraplegics to regain the use of their limbs. Thousands of Americans will willingly become cyborgs.

17) What was once a realtor's gimmick in the San Francisco housing market will become a growing trend. Groups of otherwise unrelated individuals will join together to own single family homes or 2-4 unit properties. You will also see a sharp increase in the number of extended families under one roof as grandparents become more involved in raising children.

18) Large corporations, searching for new ways to reduce overhead, will begin to seriously look at "work from home" schemes. This will lower commuting expenses for employees, but also result in increased home survelliance by employers. The traditional "8 to 5" work day will eventually become a thing of the past. This will be propelled by the cost of gasoline ($5 a gallon by the end of 2008) and more people refusing lengthy commuting times.

19) The myth of the 401K will be exposed, as it becomes quite clear that more and more Americans will have to continue to work well into their 70s to make ends meet. This WILL result in Social Security reform, but not the type you might expect.

20) America will begin to move towards a form of national health insurance through public-private partnerships.

21) The silly and confusing plethora of mortgage related disclosures will be tossed in favor of one simple, straightforward, plain English disclosure. There will be a cooling off period after an application is signed, and a recession period for all transactions, including purchases.

22) The changes in the bankruptcy laws will backfire.

23) The credit score will become "discredited" and lenders will start to move back to the "ancient" method of mortgage, installment, and revolving counters to assess creditworthiness.

24) Everybody involved in the mortgage origination process will have to be federally licensed. This will result in the positions of processor, underwriter, and funder being combined. A loan agent will take the app and the loan administator will handle all the ops duties. These will be well-paid positions requiring a college degree at a minimum. Current legislation in Congress to require all originators to be licensed is just the start.

25) The age of the "McMansion" is over. Affordability and functionality in design will be the hallmarks of future residential housing. Houses of the future will begin to resemble Mies Van De Roe's "Farnsworth House".

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

To start the New Year off with a "bang" here are today's headlines from the Scottsdale Republic:

- Shooting last night at Scottsdale nightclub

- Freeway shooting last night on Loop 101 in north Scottsdale

- While that was going on, Scottsdale P.D. made 159 DUI arrests

Nice town you got there. Welcome to Compton, Arizona!!

Anonymous said...

The DOW used to represent accumulated wealth. Today it's largely a tribute to accumulated debt. Adjusted for inflation, the DOW has increased by a factor of 100 since 1800 -- a whopping return of 2.25% on average. Whoohooo!

January 02, 2008 8:26 PM


----

That's intereting except full of shit since the dow was only created in 1884 and only contained 11 stocks, most of which didn't exit in 1800, nor exist today.

But nice try. Now maybe if you loosen the tinfoil hat a little you might to better.

Anonymous said...

UGH. I hate when people give advice and yet don't even get the basics. The dow is not a dollar value. It's an index. When you say dow at 11,000 it doesn't mean it's worth $11,000.

As for doubling in your lifetime, I don't know how old you are. I'm 31 and I'm sure it will double in my lifetime, and many times.

Beween 1920 and today dow jones went from 100 to 13,500. That means it doubled 7 times in less than 90 years. And this included a world war, the great depression, oil shocks, .com boom and bust, several recessions, several real estate booms and busts, presidential assasinations, you name it. And yet still up it went and doubled every 10 years or so on average.

January 02, 2008 7:57 PM

If you were a doctor you would likely mistake the growing tumor inside your patient as a sign of health.

All financial paper represent a "claim" against the real economy. It is like a 300 lb tick sitting on a 30 lb dog sucking the life blood out of it's host.

bank dick said...

"That's intereting except full of shit since the dow was only created in 1884 and only contained 11 stocks, most of which didn't exit in 1800, nor exist today."

Sorry Bubba, but the data don't lie. The analysis I cited used the stock price composite from 1800 to 1896, and the DJIA was used from 1896 to 2007. When it's adjusted for inflation, your fabled "DOW" and the buy and hold strategy yields only a liitle over 2% annual return on average. What's left after taxes? Diddly squat.

Now go play in traffic.

Anonymous said...

To the RETARDED anon that posted at January 01, 2008 7:33 PM

Hey tard, you are still WAY behind. Check your numbers. The S&P has gained ZERO since Dec. 1999now. It's net LOSER, just like you.

Uh, notreally said...

Obama/Richardson over McCain/Huckabee. Dems hold Congress. Housing falls 80% over peak in frothiest markets. Economy enters depression worse than '29. China calls our debt then offers to forgive it on conditions like the World Bank gives 3rd world. Yuan becomes world currency. Dems take the wrap for the mess leading to 2012 election of Ron Paul on slogan "I told you so!"
What Fed?