December 24, 2007

Merry Christmas HP'ers

I'm gonna be flying all day on Christmas - heading back to housing-crash-central Phoenix for the holidays. But I'll still be blogging - and might even have time to pop into some new home developments. Won't that be fun!

Here's a tip - do NOT bring up the housing crash at family gatherings. Even HP'ers deserve a break.




32 comments:

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

Have fun in Phoenix. If you have time, head over to Scottsdale and take pictures of all the vacant stores, restaurants, and strip malls for the site!

DC Ranch Marketplace is the best, it's now about 60% vacant!! All that DC Ranch money was all just "housing ATM" money ... no real wealth at all ... what a surprise!

Anonymous said...

Clicked some ads for ya

Merry Xmas

Metroplexual said...

Too late. It was on the front page of the NY Times. And on the front page of the business section. Sorry Keith but Florida was the poster child.

Anonymous said...

WE're so hated!

http://tinyurl.com/35sy2m

JIM: The most visited real estate blog to date is the fear mongering HousingPanic, which only focuses on the glass being half empty for the national real estate market.

What's your take on all this housing bubble talk, and what affect (if any) do blogs like HousingPanic have on the current market? And the whole idea, that if it bleeds it leads - is there some sort of self fulfilling prophesy going on here that is having any kind of effect on the market?

Sites like Housing Panic are driving traffic based on fear. It’s too bad, but sex and bad news are what sells. The ironic thing is that if you are interested in the market and are buying, you want a bad market. The message I have for Realtors and your audience, is that if you are thinking of "moving up," you want a bad market. That’s in your favor. You don't want to be moving up in a sellers’ market. If you sell your current home for 30% less of its former value, but are able to move up to a home worth much more, and acquire it at a 30% discounted value, the swing is in your favor. Let's say you sell your home that you paid $300,000 for. Assume you sell it for $240,000, and move into a home that used to be worth $400,000 , but is now worth $320,000. You have just turned a $60,000 down turn into a $20,000 upswing. Your mortgage payment and taxes will be less all the way through your ownership too.

borkafatty said...

Merry xmas Keith to you and yours:
-------------------

I predict In 2008, we’re going to see some major, giant
financial firms fall as they get hit by an economic 9/11...I just hope it can be contained...otherwise...we are in for a painful New Year....for many.

Saint Nick said...

Hey, In the spirit of Joseph, Mary, and Jesus being homeless, a lot of others are going to be also. That is going to be a Christmas to remember.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Let's say you sell your home that you paid $300,000 for. Assume you sell it for $240,000, and move into a home that used to be worth $400,000 , but is now worth $320,000. You have just turned a $60,000 down turn into a $20,000 upswing. Your mortgage payment and taxes will be less all the way through your ownership too.

WTF????

I knew you didn't have to take any business or math classes to be a realtor, but how freakin' stupid do you have to be to buy that line of bullshit?

happy homeowner in the stix said...

Oh, forgot....Merry Christmas, Keith, and hope Sky Harbor isn't too much of a nightmare!

Stuck in So Pa said...

Anonymous said...
WE're so hated!

http://tinyurl.com/35sy2m

JIM: The most visited real estate blog to date is the fear mongering HousingPanic, which only focuses on the glass being half empty........
===========================
As an HP'er, I don't consider myself a pessimist, but a realist. If I say that a glass is half full, it's not because I WANT it to be half full, but because the damn thing IS only half full.

Sorry, but going around with your head held high, observing all the facts, instead of buried in the sand, OR UP YOUR OWN A$$,
does not make you a gloom and doomer!

Enjoy the 6% lady, while it lasts!

merry xmas keith! said...

The housing crash was well documented from other family members at 2 different x-mas parties that I attended on Sat and Sun.

I didnt even say a thing about HP!

They all talked about the bush created housing doom at some point! Amazing indeed.

Low-cost gifts were also the trend this year.

Anonymous said...

I thought Arizona had been turned into a Penal Colony since the entire state was in foreclosure?

Oh well, I was WRONG AGAIN...

SeattleMoose said...

Merry Christmas Keith. Great blog. All the forecasts are right on track. Hope you can get some pool time in the Valley of the Sun. If you get a chance pop over to that Scottsdale million dollar apartment and make them an offer of $300K...in true HP fashion!!!

Anonymous said...

anon 11:51,

i'm not sure if i'm following your example. what about if you are upside down on your first home? are you saying that you can move up, but on a later time after your credit due to a foreclosure is fixed?

devestment said...

I wish a Merry Christmas to all and a special thank you to Keith for working so hard on this blog.

Three by three for Keith!

Hip hip hooray! Hip hip hooray! Hip hip hooray!

The whole experience has been fun and has kept me focused on making money and saving for the coming desperation. The bubble run up has been so long that at times I nearly lost hope and pumped my cash into depreciating assets or cut back on work. This site has connected me with a support group which has reinforced my views and strengthened my resolve.

I offer gratitude and a heartfelt thank you to the entire community for openly expressing their opinions and ideas.

Especially those that disagree and DOPES.

No good argument or discussion can be made without a challenge to either ring the bell or drop the hammer to the sound of truth.

Tim

Anonymous said...

No need to post this Keith.

Just wanted to say Merry Christmas to you and your family and thanks for the great blog.

Here's an interesting article from London I saw today.

Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'

http://tinyurl.com/2aqbsg

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Anonymous said...

Fascism is an authoritarian political ideology (generally tied to a mass movement) that considers individual and social interests subordinate to the interests of the state or party. Fascists seek to forge a type of national unity, usually based on (but not limited to) ethnic, cultural, racial, and religious attributes. Various scholars attribute different characteristics to fascism, but the following elements are usually seen as its integral parts: nationalism, statism, militarism, totalitarianism, anti-communism, corporatism, populism, collectivism, and opposition to political and economic liberalism.

Anonymous said...

Merry Christmas? Uhmm Keefer you will lose your membership in the left-wing nutjob club with language like that. It is Happy Holidays. How dare you offend people who don't celebrate?

Agent #777 said...

@happy homeowner in the stix

His idea is sound, it is his Math AND English that needs some work.

What he means is that if you HAVE to have that 400k house, if you are selling your current cheaper house for only 30% off, and you buy the new nicer one for 30% off, you are getting it at net price than if had done the same move two years ago.
It appears he was thinking 20% off, not 30% though, because those numbers fit the example.
Of course, this assumes you CAN sell your house, for even as much as 80%. I feel like I took about 14% off mine, and this was last year.

scottsdalewatch said...

In the news, (Arizona RepublIc article) in Phoenix today, just in time for XMAS:
a major REMAX franchisee goes out of business, closing 13 offices and laying off 350 brokers and all the support staff.

BAWABAWWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Anonymous said...

happy moron:

It makes sense. If you had an education beyond 4th grade the math would make sense.

Anonymous said...

RUSSERT: Under President Paul, if North Korea invaded South Korea, would we respond?

REP. PAUL: I don't. They want to build bridges and go back and forth. Vietnam, we left under the worst of circumstances. The country is unified. They have become Westernized.


Communist Ron Paul supports N.Korea's communists. No surprise.

RUSSERT: So if Iran invaded Israel, what do we do?

REP. PAUL: Well, they're not going to. That is like saying "Iran is about to invade Mars."


Ron Paul accepts money from nazis and then throws Israel under the bus. Again no surprise.

Shakster said...

Merry Christmas n sh!t.

LauraVella said...

Scottsdale watch said:"In the news, (Arizona RepublIc article) in Phoenix today, just in time for XMAS:
a major REMAX franchisee goes out of business, closing 13 offices and laying off 350 brokers and all the support staff."


Over here in the bayarea, Alliance Title company closed down 240 locations in califorina...

And...Thomasville Furniture is closing all locations...Levitz Furniture is going out of business, and so is Bombay Co.
United Rentals in Castro Valley closed down their long standing branch...computer companies in San Jose closing down. Tons on commercial space suddenly up for sale, or for lease.

All these people out of work. And these are only the ones I've heard about. Many companies are laying off.

Dont believe the trolls that everything is fine.

Lady Di said...

Merry Christmas Keith.

I really enjoy your blog.

You may have seen this exchange between Ron Paul and Tim Russert on MTP, but here it is again for your reading pleasure:

Tim Russert: "You say you are a strict contructionist...a defender of the constitution."
Ron Paul: "Yes"
Tim Russert: " But you want to amend the Constitution to end Birthright citizenship. How do you reconcile that?"
Ron Paul: "Amending the Constitution is constitutional"

That exchange wiped the smug look right off Russert's face.

Loved it!

suzanne researched it... said...

Thanks Keith for being ahead of the curve and working hard on keeping us updated as the wave comes crashing down. 2008 will prove to be an extremely interesting year as peoples attitudes towards housing begin to change. The carnage will be horrifying. Keep up the excellent journalism...

SSRI

Anonymous said...

RUSSERT: Under President Paul, if North Korea invaded South Korea, would we respond?

REP. PAUL: I don't. They want to build bridges and go back and forth. Vietnam, we left under the worst of circumstances. The country is unified. They have become Westernized.

Communist Ron Paul supports N.Korea's communists. No surprise.

RUSSERT: So if Iran invaded Israel, what do we do?

REP. PAUL: Well, they're not going to. That is like saying "Iran is about to invade Mars."

Ron Paul accepts money from nazis and then throws Israel under the bus. Again no surprise.


I agree with Ron Paul. Why should tens of thousands of Americans have to die to defend South Korea? Why don't they defend themselves since they are bigger and much wealthier than North Korea. Why should thousands of Americans die for Israel? The Israelis have a much better military than Iran. Besides, how can Iran invade Israel? They would have to go through a thousand miles of desert in Iraq and Jordan before they even reach Israel. By then, the Israeli air force would have wipe the Iranians out. Back to Chimpy and Suckabee for you neocons. You guys can go searching for Satan together.

Mammoth said...

Merry Christmas Keith & fellow bloggers.

Thanks for another year of great commentary & entertainment!

Keith, I dare you to show up at Greg Swan's door with a lump of coal to stuff into his stocking.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

@ agent 777 - ok, that's a possibility (20% vs 30%). I just went with what was stated in the realtor's example.

And speaking of morons....

Yep, anon @ 6:50 pm, you are such a freakin' rocket scientist. You is so freakin' brilliant that you are too much of a 'tard to actually, you know, plug those numbers into a mortgage calculator, based on the 30% figures. Go ahead, try it. See if it works for you or not.

Of course, you probably are scratching your ass at the very mention of a mortgage calculator, aren't ya? (Bet the harder you scratch, the more it helps you think.)

Anyhow, with that 30% example, it can't work, especially when you subtract the standard 6% commission off the top of the original house sale (approx $14,400). Or did you forget about that? I guarantee the realtor wouldn't, dumbass. I guess in your math, the realtor works for free.

All of that is before taxes, which would be higher on a more expensive house, and insurance, also probably more expensive on the second house.

The only way it could possibly work is with a teaser rate, but that's not part of the original example.

But hey, why bother to actually, you know, think things through when it is so easy to take a realtor's word for everything. After all, you can afford it. Suzanne said you could do this, right?

Anonymous said...

Let's say you sell your home that you paid $300,000 for. Assume you sell it for $240,000, and move into a home that used to be worth $400,000 , but is now worth $320,000. You have just turned a $60,000 down turn into a $20,000 upswing. Your mortgage payment and taxes will be less all the way through your ownership too.


First of all, the chimp is assuming that people have at least $60,000 of equity or can bring up to $60,000 to the table for the closing.

Secondly, the FB is going deeper into debt and risks losing even more equitysince housing has not shown any sign of bottoming yet. Let say prices drop another 20% by 2009. The $240,000 home loses another $48,000 of value. The $320,000 house loses $64,000 of value.

The best choice is to stop making payments and live in the house you could not afford rent-free until the lender forecloses.

Anonymous said...

Merry Christmas

Keith

HP'ers

and even THE TROLLS


ICEMAN

LauraVella said...

Merry Christmas Keith and fellow posters!

Have a great time in Phoenix!

Anonymous said...

"WE're so hated!"

-----
Its great isnt it. He is also talking about someone who has only one house as their primary residence. Big difference to a flipper.