December 07, 2007

I thought all real estate is local? Then why is Fannie Mae predicting a severe nationwide housing crash?


Someone at Fannie Mae didn't get their NAR talking points.

Fannie Mae sees more housing, credit pain in 2008 - Lender forecasts more credit losses, home-price declines as high as 12%

The lender said there is a "severe correction" in the U.S. housing market. "The decline is expected to be nationwide and is estimated at about one-half of the magnitude of the decline experienced in Southern California in the early 1990s," it said.

Fannie Mae estimated its mortgage portfolio at $723 billion in November.

14 comments:

michaelwiseguy said...

Why would anyone what to keep paying for a house that the bank bought for them, that is now worth 30, 40, or 50% less than what the bank paid for it originally? Just mail the keys to the bank and let the bank have their lousily investment back.

Anonymous said...

Trailers!

Everyone get a trailer. You can drive it around and like never pay property taxes!

Eric said...

"Why would anyone what to keep paying for a house that the bank bought for them, that is now worth 30, 40, or 50% less than what the bank paid for it originally? Just mail the keys to the bank and let the bank have their lousily investment back."

Because it's part of the "American dream". Renting is for undesirables remember?

Anonymous said...

LOL.

Think about it in $ terms.

I'd rather lose 25% of the value of a 1990's house than lose *only* 12% of what a house is supposedly *worth* today.

I think you missed the positive spin in this statement.

Anonymous said...

I thought that couple months ago Bernake, Bush, and Paulson told us repeatedly that the subprime was contained and wouldn't spread to the rest of the economy. Then why the doomsday predictions below?

Bloomberg -- The credit collapse and dollar decline that followed a surge in U.S. home foreclosures jeopardize expansions in the U.K., Canada and Germany, economists said. They also debunk ``decoupling,'' an argument advanced by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley that the world wouldn't suffer as it did during U.S. slowdowns in previous decades.

Of the 38 countries they monitor, Goldman economists expect growth to slacken in 26 and strengthen in a dozen. That will cause global growth to slow to 4 percent next year from 4.7 percent this year, with Europe and Japan fading faster than the U.S., they say.

Ed said...

Local as in coast to coast.

Russ DoGG said...

regards he previous articles post-

So I see that a major further price decline is anticipated. Thanks.

And note that some areas (suburbn Detroit) have already seen declines beyond the 15% mentioned

Do they have another 15% farther to go? This is starting to look serious.

LauraVella said...

Ask anyone living in So. CA and the bay area in the early 1990's through 1996 if losses were just 24%.

Don't believe Fannie Mae's "severe" correction estimate to be small...it's going to be at least, double that amount.

I live here in the bay area and have been following the RE up's and down's now since I was a teen. Price decreases of 50% off are not uncommon during ANY recession. Dont let the NAR fool you into thinking otherwise.

This recession is very different from all the others... it will drop 65-75% because the banking and mortgage industry has NEVER EVER been this lax with lending standards during a boom, and it's going to end badly.

All these leverage vehicles such as SIV's,CDO's, derivatives and conduits will be marked to market "worthless" after the holidays are over.

Wall Street wants to the sheeple to enjoy one last Christmas before the stock market collapses onto itself in January and February.

Get out now if you havent already.

Mammoth said...

There have been many comments on HP mentioning “The American Dream,” including one on this thread.

Just what really is the American Dream? In recent years, buying a home has been called the “American Dream” by the MSM.

Is the American Dream really defined as putting yourself into debt for the next 30 years?

My father once told me, “When I was young, the American Dream was that you work hard, keep your nose to the grindstone and this will make you successful. But nowdays, the American Dream is just to buy a winning lottery ticket.”

Doesn’t that just about sum it up?
What is YOUR American Dream?
-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Everyone get a trailer. You can drive it around and like never pay property taxes!

Or boat. And, don't quote me on this, but I think you get the tax deduction too.

Also, I wonder if it is possible to put a house on stilts in the middle of a river, lake or ocean?

DaveO said...

Perhaps Fannie Mae needs to talk to Lawrence Yun, who would be the best expert in the area of real estate price and sales forecasts. He is the senior economist of the National Association of Realtors. Who would know better than him? The news organizations quote him all the time in their articles.

I can tell you, that according to his latest forecast, "The forecast for home sales is for only a 0.4 percent rise nationally", which at least is not a drop in sales.

You can read his latest forecasts here: http://tinyurl.com/2kf7kl

Remember, he is the leading real estate expert in the nation. If he says that there's no major cause for concern, then the government does not need to intervene and Ben Bernanke doesn't have to keep lowering interest rates.

Anonymous said...

When will people realize that there is no bailout plan that will work? You cannot create money out of thin air to pay off these morgages. If you do, home prices will remain irrationally high and there will be no new buyers. I make $75K/yr and I would not feel comfortable buying a house that costs more than $175K. Unless you are in the medical field or work for the government, you are at risk of being laid off in the coming recession. A very small % of people have recession proof jobs. I'm sure we'll see dopes on here claiming that he has a $150,000/yr consulting job or whatever. Remember how quickly those disappeared after the dotcom ponzi scheme crashed?

Anonymous said...

"Also, I wonder if it is possible to put a house on stilts in the middle of a river, lake or ocean?"

That's called the Bayou.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

The crash is so bad, that it can't be covered up any longer ... but they still lie about % price drops to prevent widespread panic.

It's very logical, but most US citizens have been blinded by their own egos and greed, throwing logic out the window.

In the end, logic wins ... egos and greed to the wind.