December 31, 2007

Buckle your seatbelts HP'ers - 2008 is gonna be wild. You ready?


Just when you thought it couldn't get worse, it does.

And the real fun starts now.

Get ready.

55 comments:

keith said...

The cold, hard truth is that foreclosures are serving only to hasten the painful process of shifting housing prices back to a level the market can sustain. Prices must and will fall. Everywhere. Probably 25% to 30% from their peak.”

Christopher Thornberg

http://tinyurl.com/2hb53n

Princess Mononoke said...

I'm ready... Bring-it-on!

Anonymous said...

January 1, 2008 is the first day the boomer generation begins turning over the reins. What a party it has been for the boomers! I hope they had fun and were able to save a little something for the future.

Sadly, boomers aren't leaving the economy in very good shape! The world now have more debt in the history of the universe! Who will pay at least some of it all back?

Anonymous said...

rough like 2007? OK I'll take the 10% return in the naz again for 2008.

Enjoy the 2% you are getting in your savings accounts.

Princess Mononoke said...

December 31, 2007 8:13 PM

Yeah sure the boomers have their share of responsibility for this mess. However, the genXer's, my generation, play a humongous role! We were the economic/investment army trained and led by the boomers.

The genXer's were about excess! They took it over the TOP! All of the stockbrokers/traders, mortgage brokers, hedge fund mgrs. They're all in their 30s & 40s, early 50s. The super creative ones.

Think about it.......

Joe Jacari said...

Big Boomer's exit from the stage is going to be a long, drawn-out and painful process.

Alas, the disco ball is rotatng to a halt; the fog machine is pumping out it's last remaining puffs of Boggy Creek mist; the last few Bee Gees and Zep tunes are playing out; the few remaining party balloons are popping and the lights are coming on at last, to reveal the carnage.

Damn, that was one long, strange, expensive trip.

Ane it's going to be one hell of a hang over with Gen-X and Y stuck paying the bills.

I hope Big Boomer is happy.

A Hillary Clinton Whitehouse would be about the last bit of icing on what left of the cake.

It's all gone folks!

Big Boomer hogged it all for themselves.

Princess Mononoke said...

When I was a trader, I too was brainwashed. Of course, I didn’t know it at the time. It was my way of life. I loved Alan Greenspan. When he spoke, WE all listened.

Back then, I would have been celebrating Ben’s decisions. I would have been agreeing with Cramer. I would have been crying out to save the banks and my hide! lol

I didn’t care about Q-Public. All I cared about was WEALTH creation and preservation. My eyes were wide shut to the masses.

Wall Street is a completely different culture, waaaay outside of the norm!

Anonymous said...

D R HORTON up 2.5% today.

Tangelo Mozilo said...

Happy New Year, HPers, Bubbleheads, Trolls, bankers, gold bugs, FBs, flippers, Ramen-eating Realtors, Paulists, MSM goons, etc.

2008 IS going to be a wild ride!

WEEEEEEE!

pretty in pink said...

Keefer,
Now that you’re back in britain, tell us the truth.

In all your travels, have ever met people more cold hearted and rotten then Europeans?

Anonymous said...

"And the real fun starts now"
--------------------------

Keith, I wish you would stop making fun of people who made mistakes for buying beyond their means. Why do you call it "fun"? Dont you know people will be foreclosed upon and lose their homes. How is that fun?

Dont you think we should feel sorry for the flippers and the illegal aliens who lied on their applications? If they want to steal Americans livelihood, shouldnt they? after all, Bush is for it, shouldnt we support our president?

Anonymous said...

no ron paul and there will be no peace because there will be no justice. the choice is yours america.

Stuck in So Pa said...

An article I read in the dentist's office stated that until last year, approximately 2 billion in ARM's reset every month as a normal course of business. In March 08, that figure jumps to 300+ billion, just in March alone.

If the 5% default rate (Yea, sure, LMAO) that currently exists in ARM's was enough to start the economy rolling down hill, March should rocket it to the ninth pit of hell with a Titan booster shoved up it's a$$!

Should prove interesting!

Anonymous said...

it seems like it has been real quiet lately, the last few days. calm before the storm perhaps?

Anonymous said...

Only 25-30% drop? Housing prices have more than doubled the last few years. I hope that home prices lose 50-80% otherwise the majority of the new generation, or those of us who waited for this madness to pass, will not be able to buy a house.

Anonymous said...

Happy New Year to everyone except the REIC. They will bring suffering upon hundreds of millions of people for the next few years

Anonymous said...


Only 25-30% drop? Housing prices have more than doubled the last few years. I hope that home prices lose 50-80% otherwise the majority of the new generation, or those of us who waited for this madness to pass, will not be able to buy a house.


Home prices will be flat from 2002-2012 inflation-adjusted. Even the NASDAQ is down 66% when adjusted for inflation from 2000-2008. The DOW is down. The S&P is down. Wages are down. Weimar here we come. People will be bringing home millions of dollars a week and will be in the soup lines.

Anonymous said...

- GREENSPAN SHRUGS -

In a year-end interview with National Public Radio, former Fed
Chairman and Ayn Rand fruitcake Alan Greenspan candidly admitted
yesterday that the system he touted for two decades from his
official perch at the Washington headquarters of the Fed, is
about to blow. Offering his New Year forecast, Greenspan told
NPR that ``something will happen which is unexpected, which will
knock us down.'' He admitted that the world financial system is
at a ``turning phase,'' in which the benefits of the past 15
years under globalization were ``transitory, and they're about to
change. This whole process,'' he admitted, ``will begin to
reverse.''

Anonymous said...

I hope so.

Taking a new job in January.
leaving Florida for Boston.

I grew up here, this has always been home. Since 2000 it's like locusts have descended stripped everything bare, gorged themselves and left.

Now the dust bowl begins, no way I can have my daughters grow up here.

Good luck all.

Salt Lake Mortgage Guy said...

Thornberg is wrong. He's either too conservative or proposing the wrong outcome. Find out why...

eric in vegas said...

"rough like 2007? OK I'll take the 10% return in the naz again for 2008.

Enjoy the 2% you are getting in your savings accounts."

Did you enjoy the losses when the naz crashed?

"D R HORTON up 2.5% today."

D R was up a whopping .5% today to 13.17 and is getting SO close to the high of 42.

Anonymous said...

We were having dinner at my brother's place and he told me that a funny thing happened at work that day. He is a banker. He said a customer came in and explained that his credit cards are maxes out, he borrowed everything out of his house and he wanted to know what kind of application he can submit so he can obtain a Car Equity Line Of Credit. LOL. LOL. LOl. Happy New Year folks.

Anonymous said...

Greenspan told NPR that ``something will happen which is unexpected, which will knock us down.'' He admitted that the world financial system is at a ``turning phase,'' in which the benefits of the past 15 years under globalization were ``transitory, and they're about to change. This whole process,'' he admitted, ``will begin to reverse.''

That old geezer seriously needs to learn how to speak English.

And what's the deal with this reversal? Does this mean that jobs will move back to Detroit and that US car makers will finally make some profits after years in the shitter?

nfn.nln said...

- GREENSPAN SHRUGS -

In a year-end interview with National Public Radio, former Fed
Chairman and Ayn Rand fruitcake Alan Greenspan candidly admitted
yesterday that the system he touted for two...


Link?

nfn.nln said...

Here's the audio clip but not the transcript.
http://tinyurl.com/2jmy89

Anonymous said...

Keefer,
Now that you’re back in britain, tell us the truth.

In all your travels, have ever met people more cold hearted and rotten then Europeans?
-------------------------

It should be "more cold hearted and rotten THAN Europeans"

Also, britain should be capitalized "Britain" because its a proper noun.

Learn how to write you Dumb Shit American.

Anonymous said...

Only 25-30% drop? Housing prices have more than doubled the last few years. I hope that home prices lose 50-80% otherwise the majority of the new generation, or those of us who waited for this madness to pass, will not be able to buy a house.

According to many reputable economists, including Shiller, the consensus is that after a bubble has given time to deflate, prices go BELOW the historical mean of what it would have been had there been no bubble.

Therefore, in bubble states like California and Florida look to see price drops in the 70-80% range. The day of reckoning is upon US!

eric in vegas said...

"he wanted to know what kind of application he can submit so he can obtain a Car Equity Line Of Credit"

You can't be serious? And that guy should have gone to a title loan company and they could have given him the money he needed and when he doesn't pay them back they can take his car. Easy peasy.

Anonymous said...

"Taking a new job in January.
leaving Florida for Boston.

I grew up here, this has always been home. Since 2000 it's like locusts have descended stripped everything bare, gorged themselves and left.

Now the dust bowl begins, no way I can have my daughters grow up here.

Good luck all."

------------------

I've lived in Florida since '87 and you're right - what a shame what has become of this once beautiful state. It's become so ugly everywhere now, why would anyone want to move here??? Best of luck in Boston, I've been there and have to say that Boston is a really great city. I envy you. No doubt it will be a much better place to raise your daughters than Florida....

Mitesh Damania said...

I downloaded Alan Greenspan's Age of Turbulence book off audible.com to gain some insight into the rationalization of his ways.

Basically, his is a one track mind. More money = better regardless of how it's earned.

Also, there's a lot of talk of laisse faire and leaving all the scumbags/corporations to do whatever they want to do to make $$$. But this money is coming off the backs and out of the pockets of the working class!!

Also, there's a health gauge for the rich/corporations but none for the working class and poor. If the corporations' profits go down year over year there's hell to pay. But if worker profits(salaries) go down due to inflation/rising costs such as gas, food, rents where's the subsidies, tax cuts, and help programs from the govn't?

Well folks, now you know why the world is the way it is with all it's poverty and wars.

Anonymous said...

Of coruse there's Justice! However, it Just Us that are going to suffer for everyone's mistakes and not get Justice for the bad subprime mortgage mess

Russ DoGG said...

Ruprecht:
Real estate co. does a moonlite shutdown;
realtors now anxious about their unpaid commissions.

I love hearing about scamming realtors getting stiffed. Thanks and happy new year!

Russ DoGG said...

We'll see Greenspan hung in the same manner as Saddam Hussein?

mercurial slithering snake bastard.

Anonymous said...

Only 25-30% drop? Housing prices have more than doubled the last few years. I hope that home prices lose 50-80% otherwise the majority of the new generation, or those of us who waited for this madness to pass, will not be able to buy a house.

----

a 100% price rise is not equal to a 100% price drop. Obviously a 100% price drop would mean the house is at zero.

Say a 150k house has a 100% price rise to 300k. A 50% crash would bring it back to 150k, even a 30% drop would take it down to 210k.

Imagine what a 80% price drop would do!!

uncle ben's vice said...

2008 will be a watershed year for people demanding the truth about the Federal Government's collusion with multi-national business interests.

Organized crime influence of foreign and domestic policy decisions will be revealed.

The Fed will undergo intense public scrutiny.

The extent of corruption and manipulation of this administration will cause widespread tax revolt.

2008: A year of karmic justice.

6%? NEVER!!! said...

"I grew up here, this has always been home. Since 2000 it's like locusts have descended stripped everything bare, gorged themselves and left."

Man I know how you feel...same story in the rest of the S/E States.The only difference in my state is that the locust are still here eating each other.

Anonymous said...

40% of your followers think Paul will win Iowa. Therefore 40% of your followers are ou of thier freaking mind.

If he wins 2% I'll be surpised.

Anonymous said...

D R was up a whopping .5% today to 13.17 and is getting SO close to the high of 42.

--------

I think that poster meant to say KB Homes was up 2.5%. I should know I have several calls on kb and was a very happy camper yesterday.

I was with Keefer and the rest of you tinfoil hat wearing freaks with regards to housing. However just like nothing goes up forever, nothing goes down forever either. Home builders are down anywhere from 50 to 80% from their peaks. The bottom for them has come and gone. If you are still shoring HBs you are a fool.

As for home prices, probably another year or so on the downside. But HBs had such huge margins during the boom that even a 25%-40% drop in prices keeps them profitable for the most part or at least their losses do not justfify stock prices going any further south.

You guys have now become the NAR circa 2005. Just as they said the boom will last forever, you are now saying the crash will last forever. Smart people knew to ignore the NAR in 2005 and we now know to ignore you in 2008.

not anonymous said...

Well, 10% in the NAZ is better than -10% in housing, but when you consider 9-10% inflation in other stuff and an 8% decline in the trade-weighted dollar, you been losin' ground fella.

Anonymous said...

These are exciting times we live in bros. In 2008 we are about to see the downfall of another empire all due to the greed of the baby boomers. Then again maybe this country was never an empire and it was all an illusion built on scams, schemes, welfare, Hummers and credit card debt.
So sit back, relax and enjoy the festivities.

Anonymous said...

9-10% inlfation...maybe in food. I spend about $400 a month on food. So my extra cost is $40 a month or about $500 a year.

I made about $25,000 in my various investmens mainly in US stocks.

A pretty good tradeoff don't you think?

Anonymous said...

this blog is nothing but another leftist dailykos type propaganda machine for the democrats. Oh no the sky is falling. The economy is in a depression. Blah blah blah.

My prediction for 2008 is the day after the election when hitlery is president-elect, magically everything will turn around. Housing will soar once again. Inflation will be 0%. Homelessness will be hone and cancer will be cured. Or so the leftist blogs will say.

You people are pathetic.

Anonymous said...

"rough like 2007? OK I'll take the 10% return in the naz again for 2008.
Enjoy the 2% you are getting in your savings accounts."

10% in Nas? snicker...

Ill take the 28% gains I got in GOLD.

snicker.

Anonymous said...

"- GREENSPAN SHRUGS "

I wish Greenspan would roll
over and DIE !!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Mitesh Damania, it is not free markets or capitalism that are the problem. The problem occurs when the government becomes deeply involved in the markets...i.e. corpotacracy.

This is when the corporations/companies/lobbyists/influential people who have agendas(not in the people's best interest) and enjoy unfettered access to OUR elected officials.

These said officials sell us out by favoring the corporations over the people who elected them when writing legislation.

Recent example..New bankruptcy laws back in 2005(or close to that). How much money do you think the banks spent on lobbyists and percs for elected officials when that bill was up for vote? Funny how they timed that law during the time they knew they were allowing VERY RISKY LOANS.

The US does not have a true free market. And now we shall pay a price.

Anonymous said...


Organized crime influence of foreign and domestic policy decisions will be revealed.


The true organized crime families are on Wall Street and K Street. The Mafia pasta-eating hoodlums are just a diversion, a boogeyman to draw attention away from the real criminals who are robbing America blind. Law enforcement estimates that the Mafia makes $500million each year on their rackets. How many trillions have the Wall Street and DC gangsters stolen from Americans each year? We are $9 trillion in debt and being taxed to death with state and federal income taxes, payroll taxes, property taxes, sales taxes and all other kinds of fees. Where did all that money go?

Anonymous said...

DO THOSE HOMEBUILDER SHARE PRICES MEAN THAT THEY WILL NOT PAY 2 MILLION FOR 100,000 DOLLAR LOTS USING SHAREHOLDER MONEY, IN ORDER TO COLLECT THE 120,000 DOLLAR COMMISSIONS

Anonymous said...

anon said...

The genXer's were about excess! They took it over the TOP! All of the stockbrokers/traders, mortgage brokers, hedge fund mgrs. They're all in their 30s & 40s, early 50s. The super creative ones.
___________________________

Um, the Gen X generation offically began in 1967, which means the oldest Gen X is 40 this year.

Sorry, you can't pass the buck here. It's still mostly a Boomer created problem.

Jymkata

Anonymous said...

Generation X were an English pop-influenced punk rock band, formed on 21 November 1976 by Billy Idol, Tony James and John Towe.

Any other definition of the term is just mass media b*llsh*t created to sell copies of Time magazine and Tom Brokaw "news" specials. Same goes for the so called Babyboom generation.

You seriously think that somebody born in 1945 has anything in common with somebody born in 1965? Or somebody born in '65 with somebody born in '85? It is absurd but it is also an integral part of the group think that the mass media pepetuates. If people all think the same then it is easier to shift product.

If you still want to believe in that MSM BS then by that standard Gen X is blameless in this mess because all they've done in their forty year history is have their selfesteem boosted by watered down education and inflated grades, make the video game industry a multi billion dollar industry and live in their parents basements whining about how everything wrong in their lives is down to those babyboom bastards. It's as bad as Repubs blaming Bush and Dems blaming Clinton.

If there is any blame to go around it's not some boogieman that caused the problem. The problem, any problem, is caused by people sitting around casting blame and making excuses instead of getting of their ass and doing something. The your mom's basement has a door, the playstation has an off switch and if you want to be a guitar hero then buy a real guitar and learn some chords. That's how the babyboomers did it and some of them, like Joe Strummer, even had something to say with their songs.

Anonymous said...

Learn how to write you Dumb Shit American.

Thank you for making his point Eurotrash.

Anonymous said...

Imagine what a 80% price drop would do!!


Yeah, it would bring us back to 1989 prices.

happy homeowner in the stix said...

2008 probably won't be that bad. It's an election year, and historically speaking the party in power has done everything they can to ensure their nominee's win. Look at the history books...election years are usually good ones for the stock market, etc. The stock market could go up a bit, and maybe even housing prices might stabilize for a time in some parts of the country.

(Note to people with obvious reading comprehension difficulties....I didn't say it would go up, I didn't say it wouldn't go down a bit more. I'm not talking about any specific area of the country, either. Prices might plateau around the fall, ok??? Ya ever hear of "the calm before the storm"? That's what I mean.)

Don't forget, 1929 was the year after the election....not the election year.

2009....that could be when the real shit hits the fan, especially if the "wrong" nominee wins the election.

Anonymous said...


9-10% inlfation...maybe in food. I spend about $400 a month on food. So my extra cost is $40 a month or about $500 a year.


At $400/mo I assume you frequent the McDonalds $1 menu for lunch and dinner. You won't last long on that.

I guess you don't use any gas, electricity or insurance? If you did, you would notice a little inflation there too.

As for the $25,000 you claim to have made, prove it. I could claim to be a billionaire just as easily. Put up a blog with a snapshot of your brokerage account. You can black out any account numbers.

Anonymous said...

This problem could be solved if existing home owners intent on selling their homes would refrain from trying to play the ponzi scheme and lower their house prices back down to a realistic level. LOWER THE PRICES AND THERE WILL BE NO RECESSION. Don't listen to what a realtor says, they are only trying to fatten up their profit by advising you that your house is worth $200K plus. In reality, it's worth what it was before all this nonsense started. Most of you paid what? $30K? That wooden bungalow is worth only $85K, let's face it. It's 57 years old. LOWER THE PRICE. How's the Plumbing? Wiring? Heater? Windows? Soon, all those baby boomers will be retiring and have NO ONE to replace them. Houses will be a dime a dozen.

Mitesh Damania said...

Good video on greenspan:
http://tinyurl.com/2g2lc8