Depending on your role in this housing debacle, I think we see a bit of denial still (shockingly), a lot of fear (homebuilders, lenders, realtors), some desperation (foreclosures, bankruptcies) and the first scenes of true panic (Northern Rock savers, Fannie Mae investors)
But where would you say the majority of Americans are today?
It's been illuminating to follow this chart these past few years. It simply showed us when it came to the Housing Ponzi Scheme what was happening, and what was to come, no matter what realtors on commission wanted you to believe.
People ask me all the time "when will it be safe to buy a house again"?
The answer? When the majority are disgusted by real estate as an investment. When there's true capitulation and despondency. And of course, when you can buy a home and rent it out for positive cash flow. We're still not even close.
November 28, 2007
Work with me people!
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We are most definitely in for a RIDE of our lifetime...
Make sure you have your goggles ready for when all the shit really starts getting out of control...
I just heard on CNBC Worldwide that there are talks of a merger between Citi and BofA! WTF!
Didn't Abu Dhabi's just purchase a large stake in Citi?
FYI: Nov. 28th article
>>The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority also acquired stakes in the Carlyle Group private equity firm and chip-maker Advanced Micro Devices earlier this year.<<
http://washingtontimes.com/article/20071128/BUSINESS/111280029/1001
I forgot to mention, thank goodness I am a thrill seeker and ready to take the WAVES. But I really feel for the faint of heart. They are the one's who will suffer the most. :(
I believe the majority of Americans are in the "Denial" phase:
They are in denial that Marie Osmond should not have lost on "Dancing with the Stars."
I concur.
I want to say Fear, but when I look at the shoppers lined up on Black Friday like cows to the slaughter, I can only say Denial. In fact, don't you love the ever present description of The Resilient American Consumer? American consumers are like Drug Addicts: whored-out, homeless, and decrepit- still always resilient enough to find the next score.
I had a long time bubble denier friend of mine capitulate yesterday, so I think we are moving out of the denial stage and into the fear stage. Additionally, we no longer see trolls posting here attempting to ridicule us, so denial on the part of the real estate whores is also waining. By the way what ever happened to that Osman guy (real estate broker)that use to post here about a year and a half ago.
Somewhere b/t denial and fear. "Willful blindness" comes to mind as the best way to describe it.
Debbie said...
November 28, 2007 11:12 AM
That is how they would like us all to remain. Think about all of the $$$ going into advertising and commercials. It IS infectious.
It's a form of daily constant subliminal messages that America and the rest of the World eats up! I'll give them credit. They are good at what they do...
I'm in Los Angeles and I can confirm that everyone here is intentionally in DENIAL...
No one is scared yet. My parents back in New York still see themselves as being up hundreds of thousands of dollars.
I was going to say: somewhere between denial and fear. Which is pathetic. Because if they don't at least feel fear now then they really are stupid.
I mean, I feel fear right now and I don't even own.
I work in investment management software and had a conversation yesterday with a mix of the business guys and technology guys. They were all in agreement that a recession was unlikely and that, even so, their employer and the downtown area where they work will continue to flourish. I was the lone voice of reason.
That said, I had another conversation with one of their junior economists and he puts the chance of a recession at an absolute certainty.
Some people can read the writing on the wall but still a lot of denial out there even among people who should know better.
As measured by the asking prices in the MLS listings, I still see a lot of denial here in Tampa.
I watched some idiot on Bloomberg today say that the housing problem is overblown and the banks oversold. I haven't watched in a while but wonder why stocks have held up. These people are good he almost had me convinced that manufacturing would save the USA economy. Yeah manufacturing will save good f*&^in luck on that one. Lets see what is saving us from.
800 billion in lost HELOCS.
1/2 a million high paying R. jobs.
1/4 million mortgage brokers.
God knows how many investment bankers.
2 million construction jobs.
Billions in property taxes.
4 million people who had their credit ruined.
Trillions of consumer and federal debt.
Trillions of lost fake equity.
Baby boomers ending their peak spending years.
Yep manufacturing up .5% should just about take care of that!!!
Whew long post but worth it to make everyone feel better.
Sequoia
OK, now I've seen it all. From today's Washington Post:
"Toni Yates, a real estate agent in the Lake Anna area, said the nuclear plant's proximity has not hurt sales of vacation homes or full-time residences. The plant's two low-profile domes are tucked away from view of lakefront houses and are visible mainly from the water.
Yates said prices for houses on shallow water and with limited lake views start at about $450,000. Houses on prime lakefront property can fetch $600,000 to $800,000. Luxury homes cost more. "
http://tinyurl.com/2rmhu3
Most are in the denial stage and will remain that way for some time. You have to remember that Americans have always been brainwashed to believe that real estate never loses it value. Especially one's personal home. As most are still saying just hold on to your houses, don't sell the price will come back eventually.
Notice how it is universally - even on HP - described as "facing" foreclosure? Does anyone ever go through foreclosure? What kind of mood are they in?
And what do they do next? Buy another house? Rent? Move in with mom and dad? Hit the homeless shelter? I need some [fore]closure on this.
"Toni Yates, a real estate agent in the Lake Anna area, said the nuclear plant's proximity has not hurt sales of vacation homes or full-time residences."
LMAO!!! I wonder what these sheeple will do when they start to GLOW flourescent green!!! I know what they'll do and their teeth starts falling out. They'll do what all sheeple do: They'll ask their real-estate agent. Toni, the "ever knowing one" real estate agent will tell them that flourescent green skin has not been proven to be a health hazard, and who needs teeth anyway; there is less maintenance with DENTURES. Go SHEEPLE!!
Has anyone else noticed that conservative pundits such as Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, and the majority of the Republican presidential field have made assessing the state of the economy into a conservative/liberal issue? To them, if you think the economy is going down the tubes, you must be a pinko and want to have Hitlary for president.
I always thought that assessing economic facts was an objective task, not an ideologcal one.
The Republicans will continue to silde into irrelevance unless they get their heads out of the sand on this one.
Florida School Fund Rocked by $8 Billion Pullout Amid Defaults
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSkgscUL
J6Tk&refer=home
It's beginning to smell like 1929.
most are in denial. march to may 2008 we will see fear.
Yates said prices for houses on shallow water and with limited lake views start at about $450,000. Houses on prime lakefront property can fetch $600,000 to $800,000. Luxury homes cost more. "
Yeah maybe last year!
As soon as the folks in DC get out of Denial, they will quit paying the Mortgage on those Lake Anna second homes.
And it won't make a damn bit of differance about the Nuc Plant being there.
I might swoop down & buy one for pennies on the dollar in 2010 or 11 -
WAIT -- NOT!!!
My estimate would be somewhere between euphoria and anxiety. It should be aptly labeled as "ignorance".
The general public doesn't have a clue. My wife, the wife of an originator, doesn't have a clue.
Like most issues of importance, the American public has their head in the sand on this issue as well.
Denial. Absolutely no one I know wants to hear a peep from me about the U.S. housing market...
"Denial ain't just a river in Egypt." -Mark Twain
Is it denial or the fact that they know the Feds will screw the taxpayer before they let the housing ponzi scheme fail like in 1929?...
How's that dow 5000 prediction everyone? Keep renting, keep stuffing your money under the mattress.
I'd say we are on the spectrum
between anxiety and desperation.
Even those doing okay are anxious.
I am okay, but I can see where I
would be desperate in as little as
two or three months if someone in my family went down. Four homes in my family from minimum wage earners to retired, no debt, good income are shared homes with family members living together...We are quite average. In the branch doing
"best" there was a layoff with switch to another job in another family extension, which led to plan to sell house bought several years ago. In that family branch another member considered most successful
(income ~180K , combined about 200K) figures to be laid off...how
are you going to replace that right away? Lots of us wake up anxious in the night the last couple of months, just general sense of things. And we all have great survival, thrift skills...From soap making to hunting to carpentry to
weaving....still.....pkk (grandma)
The Municipalities are desperate.
169.00 dollars for a Parking ticket.Seriously.And you don't get to argue about it either.Pay up or get Tasered.Contriving common Sense into perverted "LAW" is a great way to get money.
Here in Portland they still believe they and Seattle have been spared. A local NPR story just supported that position saying that prices in those two cities have risen while everywhere else they've dropped.
I wonder how all you libertarians feel about the foreign government money flooding in, like the billions from Abu Dhabi to prop up Citigroup? On the one hand your basic belief "free markets, free minds" says that you should welcome the influx of capital despite the loss of American control. On the other hand, your knee-jerk isolationist tendencies must be making you twitch just thinking about it.
What to do, what to do? More improtantly, WWRPD? [What Would Ron Paul Do?]
Americano avg. IQ=68 AFTER a fish meal.
They are in the stupidity phase. They have watched too many Nascar cars going aound in circles or Britany Spears, Nicole Smith (insert one) slut-of-the-week updates and are in a trance-like hypnotic retarded mental state.
Imagine, a new reality show hyped lake a NASCAR production. You get an ignorant dim-whit like Darryl Waltrip to open the show with boogity, bogity boogity, Then introduce the destitut family that will be put out on the street from foreclosure due to option-ARM,HELOC, etc. Then the opposition team of bank, lawyer, real estate peddler - ah, sorry. Too many fantasies, so little time.
To view equal pain, get a copy of "Roger and Me" by Michael Moore and watch what happened to Flint, MI after GM left town. . Pay particular attention to the Bunny Lady - Pets or Meat?
Think it cannot happen to you, or me?
Think George Bush-Dick Cheney and get back to yourselves.
Boogity, boogy, boogity....
nasdaq up 3% on top of yesterday's 2%. I made more money in 2 days than you fools will make all year keeping your money in a savings account.
I am not dopes, but in honor of him....
DOPES!
Keith & Everyone,
Time to forget about housing and the economy for a bit:
http://tinyurl.com/2edtlm
Here's the way the gumint is going to engineer us out of this...
Inflation.
In 5 years, general price inflation will be 30% to 35% higher than now; official inflation will have it at about 12% to 16%, while incomes are up about the same. So we'll stay pretty much in the same tax brackets, but our standard of living will be lower.
So housing prices don't need to collapse; if they stay about where they are or decline 5-10% more, they'll really be down about 40%.
You see, the more house prices come down nominally, the more homedebtors will just walk, and the gumint CAN'T HAVE THAT. So it will be a slow moving inflationary train wreck. Sound feasible?
Somewhere between anxiety and denial. I say that because the majority of Americans think there'll be an upturn "any day now."
...again, the longer they believe this (and in my experience they do), the longer, the uglier and the costlier this is going to get.
...all because they refuse (for now, of course) to believe that their precious "investment" is losing value.
Boy are they in for a nasty bit of reality. In the beginning of this, sellers believed they were in a game of "chicken" with potential buyers, when in fact potential buyers like me, have "not a care in the world," as my saved money grows,and I refuse to be bothered by the predicament of the seller.
I'll just bide my time until I like the deal a lot and raise my family, for now, in a beautiful, albeit rented home. Trust me, my two kids are living in luxury for 1/2 the price. The gravy train rolls on for them too, as I take them on vacation and save for their college.
As they say, water will find it's level.
...at this pace and when lots of Americans can own a home relatively comfortably, I'm thinking that we're in for a nice nose-dive for five or more years.
I'll pounce when I'm good and ready to, although I do confess to watching these once-smug investors squirm.
hey there HPers.
My calls are through the roof today.
How are your puts?
Keep dooming and glooming it up boyz. At the end of the day you lose once again. First you missed out on the greatest housing boom ever by renting. Now you are missing out on the next great bull by buying gold or silver or whatever the hell it is you communist idiots do these days.
Here in Europe......denial. Plenty up for sale, sales are down, but prices are remaining pretty static.
I have quit even looking through classifieds anymore.
Europe is definately in deeper shit than the USA.
All these people buying Euro's should think twice. Whatever happens to America happens later in Europe, Australia etc. Just like when movies are hitting the theatres in Europe, the American have already released the DVD.
Denial - but we have two groups of people - those who bought their homes 10 to 20 years ago, and have small mortgages or have them paid off, and the other 70% who have a big mortgage, HELOC or bought after 2004. . .the 30% (my estimate)are doing fine (for now)but it is the other group that is between denial and panic. . .I do know local people here in SD who are in the panic mode, so we are making progress.
just had a conversation with coworkers and we are absolutely still in the denial phase.
no doubt.
It's complete denial where we are (81521). New developments with hundreds of $400K houses going up, and the stores are jammed with shoppers. Lots of oil patch money to spend and retirees from CA moving in.
A few old timers remember the bust of the '80s when houses lay vacant for years as 20% of the population walked away to find work elsewhere. But when they mention it, they are savaged by cheerleaders from the chambers of commerce and local banks who claim that kind of downturn will never happen again...
I've noticed most of the denial finally beginning to wear off. Now it's been replaced with fear/desperation and whole lot of anger (towards anyone and everyone - the media, blogs, buyers for not buying).
I think we're at Desperation right now.
We are at Fear for about a year before this August, when the MSM "came out" about the credit crunch.
The thing about Fear is that most people with it act like they're in Denial, but have private doubts that they're generally too macho to share with others.
Still mostly in Denial. The Denial stage has a broad brush, and there are different degrees of Denial to go through - I bet a chart could be created just for the stages of Denial we have experienced/have yet to experience:
Denial that prices would stop going up.
Denial that prices could actually go flat.
Denial that prices could actually eek down a bit.
Denial that prices could actually go down to 2004 levels.
Only when there is tangible hurt on the horizon for the vast majority of people will fear become prevalent (not yet).
Firmly in denial with a bit of fear.
WHat is this RudysReadinglist.com??? I thought the money bomb was Dec. 16?
Is this a real Ron Paul donation site or another scam? I want to donate but I think the only safe site is ronpaul2008. please clarify why you support that site.
thanks
Quote:
#####
I believe the majority of Americans are in the "Denial" phase:
They are in denial that Marie Osmond should not have lost on "Dancing with the Stars."
I concur.
#####
Better yet, I believe the majority of the Americano are getting all buttered up, lathered with aromatic herbs to be toasted later over that bed of white hot charcoal "Housing Bubble" like a skewered snapper turtle.
Man, Dude, this freaking nation and its stupid-ass citizens are going to be foocked so deep that the skewer stick will come out on the mouth hole.
I wonder how all you libertarians feel about the foreign government money flooding in, like the billions from Abu Dhabi to prop up Citigroup? On the one hand your basic belief "free markets, free minds" says that you should welcome the influx of capital despite the loss of American control. On the other hand, your knee-jerk isolationist tendencies must be making you twitch just thinking about it.
I have always declared myself a nationalist liberatarian....or in other words, I believe in the constitution. Liberty in America is the right of American citizens not foreign nations or multinationals. Common sense really. Too bad common sense is so uncommon these days...
Globalism will come to be seen for what it is...another tactic by the rich to get richer and f$ck the middle class.
Less than a decade after the fall of the Soviet empire, America was teetering in insolvency and vulnerable to all manner of foreign agression. Should one expect more from our new status as an undisputed superpower? So what went wrong? Globalism happened.
Yes, I am an isolationist and proud of it. That's why I keep my house locked at night. I stand by MY FAMILY and not every impoverished degenerate in the world. Globalism helped few and hurt many...does that mean I am against importing commodities that cannot be found domestically? No, but for the rest of our "shared world order", ABSOLUTELY YES - I want NO PART of America's race to the global bottom.
In DC, mostly denial or complete ignorance. The smart money HAS seen the writing on the wall but the sheeple are too busy buying Chinese CRAP to put their finger to the wind....BTW - That's what the stuff from China is...CRAP.
nasdaq up 3% on top of yesterday's 2%. I made more money in 2 days than you fools will make all year keeping your money in a savings account.
I am not dopes, but in honor of him....
DOPES!
Damn, beat me to it. I knew some form of DOPES would make a return today. Dow up 260. WTF ?!?!?!?
Anonymous said...
nasdaq up 3% on top of yesterday's 2%. I made more money in 2 days than you fools will make all year keeping your money in a savings account.
Does that make up for all the money you lost in the recent selloffs? The nasdaq is still way below its peak so you must be losing money but it's hard to tell since you only post when the market is up. Oh, wait, I get it, you only invest when the market is going to go up.
.
San Diego;
Denial bordering on fear!
.
anon said...
nasdaq up 3% on top of yesterday's 2%. I made more money in 2 days than you fools will make all year keeping your money in a savings account.
I am not dopes, but in honor of him....
DOPES!
___________________________________
Hey, dopes! The Dow is still 1000 points off it's high of only 2 months ago. Meanwhile, all my foreign currencies, gold, oil, etc are up between 10 - 20% during that same time. Sure they're pulling back today, but this rally is because the Fed said they'll be cutting rates again. What do you think that's going to do to the value of the dollar as well as commodities?
You're are clearly in Denial.
Jymkata
___________________________________
Where is the clueless stage? I think most Americans will be smoking the shopping peyote for the next month so anything outside of 50 percent sales is not going to register on their radar. Someone once said that the majority of the population doesn’t comprehend social issues until it ends up on their front door step. Folks are getting along just fine making the minimum payments and living 1 or 2 paychecks away from the poor house.
Banks and the housing industry are definitely in the panic stage. All these “lifelines” and equity “injections” clearly highlight a view that the situation right now is critical. Something needs to change and change fast. Unbelievably the public doesn’t seem too concerned on a larger scale. Of course us housing bloggers are vested in this much more and need to remember that the vast majority get their info from the boobtube. I’m still seeing funky mortgage ads and refinancing ads. Still seeing on the weekend the tanned Hawaiian shirt guru telling you that flipping houses is so easy, you can do it from a wireless laptop from the beach while getting drinks served ice cold by a bodacious lady. After all, getting rich overnight is as easy as one, two, triplex.
Maybe its a good thing that Ahbooo Dobie is buying lots of Citigroup.
If the Arabs buy enough of Manhattan, then maybe they won't want to fly planes into it since they own it. Dress code for the women will be tough though, and the latest designer Burkahs will be the "in" thing.
BWA HA HA HA
DOW UP 300
Some recession.
Some market meltdown.
Keep talking doom and gloom all you want, it just ain't happening.
Does that make up for all the money you lost in the recent selloffs? The nasdaq is still way below its peak so you must be losing money but it's hard to tell since you only post when the market is up. Oh, wait, I get it, you only invest when the market is going to go up.
November 28, 2007 5:51 PM
=========
Dude naz is up about 10% so far this year. You can't judge performance month to month. Well you can but you'd be stupid to.
Personally, I think we are now riding into anxiety. At least, for the majority of the sheeple. Wall Street and the Fed are clearly in the "fear" stage but are still oblivious to the true nature of this calamity.
But this will take years to unravel. My suspicion is that the fear stage will be hit in mid to late 2008 for the general sheeple population when they realize the housing problem exists beyond just the subprime realm.
Right now I think most Americans feel unaffected and don't care. The only people who are really affected are those who "bought" in the last 5-6 years. The majority won't feel the effects until we're deep in recession.
The exception is major bubble cities (Phoenix, Vegas, San Diego etc) where the economies were supported by REIC money and now you're seeing regular non-RE businesses shutting down because the economy is no longer flooded with HELOC and credit card money.
Let's see
DOW up 7% YTD
NASDAQ up 10% YTD
Stocks went crazy 1st half of the year. Then there was a mild correction and now it's back up again. I'll take 10% a year and be happy. Better than my money languishing in some savings account earning 5%. And on top of it paying 28% tax on interest as opposed to 15% tax on capital gains. In effect you're losing twice by keeping your money in the bank.
You all go ahead and fight it if you want. It's pointless and you know it. All you liberals hate to see success in this country. You want the US to lose militarily, you want the US economy to falter.
My only question is why the fuck do you stick around. Go to France and live in your socialist, pacifist paradise.
I love in Orange County, California - home of the most plastic group of people you will ever care to meet.
I think many people are in denial, partly because we are not dealing with a very smart group, or if they are in the fear stage, many will try to hide it, because the appearance of wealth is so important to these people.
The Municipalities are desperate.
169.00 dollars for a Parking ticket.Seriously.And you don't get to argue about it either.Pay up or get Tasered.Contriving common Sense into perverted "LAW" is a great way to get money.
I was back in Scottsdale a few weeks ago and even *I* was stunned at the expansion of photo radar. Driving down Shea at night I felt like paparazzi were around with all the flashes going off. It seemed like you couldn't go anywhere without a camera waiting.
It was a family gathering and we had people from all over the country there and they were all disgusted at the proliferation of photo radar and that the SHEEP of Arizona would just sit back and take it like they do.
OOPS
Dow up 330 now
I feel for you guys with shorts, I really do. Ouch.
Please oh wise ones, tell me more about what I should do.
Well the KOOL-AID is flowing fast today on Wall Street!! Up 342 today. I guess the recession is over already!! Wow!!
nasdaq up 3% on top of yesterday's 2%.
So what?
If you think daily fluctuations in the markets (fed by the emotions of the sheeple who own stock) are indicative of the broad economy, then you are a ...
DOPE!
Oh yeah, nothing says market rally like these headlines:
1. Biggest year-over-year plunge in home prices can't revive housing market as sales pace falls to record low.
2. Recipe for a meltdown
The primary culprits behind the market turmoil are sky-high stock prices -- and it's only going to get worse.
3. An earlier report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders in October.
4. Wells Fargo said late Tuesday that it would take a $1.4 billion hit in the fourth quarter for loan losses related to home equity loans.
5. Middle class feels the squeeze
Rising costs of health care, housing, and education are forcing middle-class families to work harder and longer, says a new report.
6. Protesters demand help from Countrywide -- Homeowners want the mortgage lender to stop foreclosures on borrowers who are behind in payments.
7. Bear Stearns Cuts 4 Percent of Staff.
8. Deadbeat Developers Signaled by Derivatives in U.S. Commercial Real Estate -- Commercial real estate is a full-blown bubble that feels very much at a bursting point.
9. Freddie Mac Cuts Dividend in Half.
10. Fed: Economy loses speed, shopping slows.
Now, may I ask how in the hell a rate cut would be relevant in these conditions? It's all rigged so the crooks on Wall Street can get their end of the year bonus.
Funny, how the mere mention of an interest rate cut makes the stock market take off like their is no tomorrow.
Aren't interest rate cuts because there is a lack of liquidity? How stupid is helicopter to think their is no liquidity in the market?
Denial with a a nagging feeling, which is fear.
The silent scream is going on behind closed doors.
We're still in denial in Vegas and in my opinion we are going straight to panic since our area is due for the hardest and fastest pricing crashes. I think the rest of the country is for the most part in denial still. Once the euphoria of the holiday season wears off and the bills start piling up combined with falling home prices we're going to enter the fear stage.
SOME CRASH, DOPES
.
.
.
DOW UP 350 POINTS
.
.
.
AND COUNTING
.
.
.
ON SPECULATION OF RATE CUTS
.
.
.
YOU MISSED OUT
.
.
.
LOSERS
.
.
.
PEOPLE ARE BUYING WII'S ALL OVER THE JOINT, THEY CAN'T MAKE THEM FAST ENOUGH
.
.
.
DOPES
This article from iTulip has many 1929 Headlines... to understand today's rally pattern.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=13997#poststop
---------------------------
Regarding the expression "common sense", you're right that sense is no longer common. So I now just say "sense".
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN CARES MORE ABOUT .."DANCING WITH THE STARS" TV SHOW THAN THEY DO WITH THE ECONOMY AND THEIR FUTURE.. NOW TAKE THEIR TV SHOWS AWAY ..THEN THEY WILL CARE...
WE ARE AT THE "DONT CARE PHASE"
If the Arabs buy enough of Manhattan, then maybe they won't want to fly planes into it since they own it.
They never flew planes into the WTC in the first place.
a.creampuff -
Yeah, after the actual foreclosure, I don't think any hang around to talk about it. I think it's a fairly humiliating experience. I bought my first house at a foreclosure auction in '90, and I'm quite certain the previous owner/occupant didn't want to be around to watch their place being sold off, particularly given the amount of 'sweat equity' that she'd put in.
Speaking of which, I watch the foreclosure auctions regularly - and just saw some Realtwhores (a husband & wife "team") get put out. They were having open houses at the beginning of the month, and wouldn't drop the price to cover the note. I'm guessing they had a HELOC as well, and couldn't possibly show up with cash at closing.
The Schadenfreude just keeps coming.
This article has priceless information for all of my fellow HPer's. Cheers!
>>"I think we're headed into a deep recession, the worst since the Depression, as dozens of banks will fail," Burry says.<<
>>Banks are hoarding cash like Scrooge McDuck.<<
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/GettingRichOffTheSubprimeMess.aspx?page=1
I'm re-posting this comment for those who missed it earlier this week... It is a great read!
This article from the LA Times gives credence to everything Keith and HPer's have been saying all along! Kudos to all...
"Bears are becoming harder to ignore"
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-petruno24nov24,0,7343480.column?page=1&track=ntothtml&coll=la-tot-business
I wonder if anyone in the MSM will ever call BS on the likes of Lawrence Yun ("Several positive developments in the credit market will pave the way for improving housing market conditions going into 2008") or Kendra Todd ("bubbles are for bathtubs")? My feeling is that they won't. Has Lereah ever been publically lynched (figuratively)? Why does the media and the general population not seem to care when such boldly inaccurate predictions from the "experts" come to a head?
man,
oil and gold have taken an ass kicking the last 2 days
just saying...
If the Fed cut the rate to 0%, would the DOW go to 3,000 quadzillion?
"Meanwhile, Wells Fargo said late Tuesday that it would take a $1.4 billion hit in the fourth quarter for loan losses related to home equity loans. However, shares of the bank were nearly 4 percent higher, perhaps on relief that the hit wasn't bigger.
Investors also sent Freddie Mac shares up nearly 13 percent, even after it cut its dividend in half and said it would sell $6 billion of stock to bolster its finances in anticipation of additional losses. The mortgage finance firm last week announced a $2 billion loss.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers more than five to one on volume of 1.21 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by nearly four to one as 1.90 billion shares exchanged hands."
just saying....maybe it isn't doomsday quite yet.
Until the U.S.A people learn where the true value of a human being, a justly person lies, there is no hope for this land. The nation and its people are going down the toilet.
There is no more money for U.S citizens to buy house from one another. The price of house is out-of-whack. Everyone in this land carries a cell phone, a black berry. Every one in this land look up the sky and think U.S.A is the mightiest, strongest, richest, noblest, fairest in the whole wide world. And yet we have man and woman in this nation whom marries not once, not twice, but three times in their lives. We have high school educated level worker, employee whom makes over $200K annually on R.E related business. We have black friday where people waited in line to shop at 10:00 P.M on the ThanksGiving day.
So, tell me, is this country goìng down the gutter or no ?
I feel the need to touch on the sales number's again. As I mentioned before, the sales number's do NOT include home auction sales.
Why? Because they are owned by the lender's and they are not considered a real estate transaction. But think about it, NO ONE is really buying homes right now. Homes sold at auction are priced waaayyy below "current market value" right?
Ergo, the REAL depreciation value will kick in mid next year.
Green Bay is in complete denial.
"Central banks are pumping money into the system claiming that this is not inflationary, because they inject and then, in a second moment, they drain the liquidity. But in the moment they drain, they have to inject it again, so that the liquidity remains in the system". They have no policy, they just proceed "by sight", injecting money there where cracks are opening. "The interbank lending system has been frozen since August. Once in a while, someone tries to sell something, and this drives interbank rates immediately up. But the system has never de-frozen, to the opposite, the paralysis has expanded".
"Lots of oil patch money to spend and retirees from CA moving in.
A few old timers remember the bust of the '80s when houses lay vacant for years as 20% of the population walked away to find work elsewhere."
Oh boy, I remember Houston, mid-80s... now that was a bust! And I was only a young man back then but saw a lot of dreams get shattered.
A few years earlier, cerca 1978-1981, I remember all the young graduates and newly married couples all chiming for the new city and the big life working in Texas for the energy companies. There was a lot of migration by highly qualified engineers, technicians, financial/accting types, etc, for the grand life in the nation's up and coming city. Heck, I remember Dallas being the hottest show back then.
What up plaYahS
So much for your end of the world theories. Black Friday spending up huge over last year. Cyber Monday spending up 20% over last year. Stocks up 5, 6% this week.
Now if you'll excuse me I have some shopping to do. Enjoy the 1 bedroom shithole apartment watching your 13" B&W TV.
homedebtors = fear
floppers = capitulation
lenders/banks = panic
REIC footsoldiers = desperation
brokersleaveyoubroke said...
Anonymous said...
nasdaq up 3% on top of yesterday's 2%. I made more money in 2 days than you fools will make all year keeping your money in a savings account.
Does that make up for all the money you lost in the recent selloffs? The nasdaq is still way below its peak
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Yeah how's gold doing? Silver? Both below their 2007 peaks right. So therefore you must me losing money.
Adjusted for inflation gold is about 90% below its peak in 1980 if you really want to get technical.
Had you bough $1000 of gold in 1980 you'd have $1000 today. Had you bought $1000 of blue chips in 1980 you'd have $15K today, $17K if you re-invested didivdends.
You were saying....
Anonymous said...
Here's the way the gumint is going to engineer us out of this...
Inflation.
In 5 years, general price inflation will be 30% to 35% higher than now; official inflation will have it at about 12% to 16%, while incomes are up about the same. So we'll stay pretty much in the same tax brackets, but our standard of living will be lower.
So housing prices don't need to collapse; if they stay about where they are or decline 5-10% more, they'll really be down about 40%.
You see, the more house prices come down nominally, the more homedebtors will just walk, and the gumint CAN'T HAVE THAT. So it will be a slow moving inflationary train wreck. Sound feasible?
November 28, 2007 3:50 PM
That appears to be the plan.
It won't work however without dem pesky furriners going along with it.
They won't, it's not in their self intrest and they aren't retards.
I want to elaborate a little bit more on the difference between foreclosures and "Real Estate Owned" (REOs) by lender's for the HPer's who are not familiar.
When a property gets foreclosed on by the lender, they first try to sell the house in the open market. If they are unable to find any buyer's stupid enough to buy right now, then the property gets placed in their inventory and thus called an REO. These are the homes sold at auction and not included with the sales figures.
Take a good hard look at the REOs reported by this website. SHOCKER!
http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/2007/08/10796-homes-offered-for-sale-on.html
Sorry the other link I posted will lead you to the April, 2007 figures. This link is the most current. CW has been real busy dumping their inventory recent mos.
Total REO Asking Price: $2,969,067,322
(As of November 28, 2007)
http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/2007/11/14196-reo-offered-for-sale-on.html
If you invested $1000 in the NASDAQ in March 2000, it would be worth about $350 right now when adjusted for inflation. A 65% loss in 7 1/2 years. I thought the stock market and housing always goes up?
The rally today in stocks shouldn't really be a surprise. Fundamentals all point down but that is totally irrelevant to the sheep who follow CNBC and the NAR. Remember, these are the same idiots who said that housing never goes down - fundamentals are irrelevant to them until, suddenly, fundamentals matter.
In the housing bubble, fundamentals like the home price/average income ratio only started to matter when those subprime and prime arms began to adjust and 'investors' realized, oh yeah, buyers don't have the income to support repayment of their mortgages.
The fundamentals in stocks will start to matter when corporate earnings begin to decline and 'investors' will realize, oh yeah, maybe we shouldn't have priced in an increase in earnings when we were at a cyclical peak in earnings and the dollar was falling and oil was over $90 and consumers were defaulting on their mortgages and credit cards and consumer sentiment was falling and the entire housing industry that comprised 40% of growth these last several years just simply imploded.
Buying today based on someone saying something about interest rates, as though any economic problem can be solved by lowering interest rates, that just shows how stupid these 'investors' really are. Time to double down on shorts because January is going to be as fun as August was.
oil and gold have taken an ass kicking the last 2 days
just saying...
Good because I'm buying more. Oil will keep going up until the two oil men in the White House, that you people elected, leave office. Have you noticed that oil has skyrocketed since those two took office? That's not a coincidence.
How do you think that the Saudis are paying for all these cheap American assets? Prepare the wallet because the Arabs and the Chinese are coming for it. Americans are bitches of Arabs, Chinese, and Israelis, and the crooks in the government and Wall Street are selling your country cheap to them. Enjoy your new GOP.
So much for your end of the world theories.
Don't be a stranger when the market tanks again in the next few days. This was a sucker's rally to shave fools like you and for the crooks on Wall Street to get their bonuses.
Had you bough $1000 of gold in 1980 you'd have $1000 today. Had you bought $1000 of blue chips in 1980 you'd have $15K today, $17K if you re-invested didivdends.
You were saying....
We HP'ers with a brain suggest that you buy more stocks this week, since you are so bullish. Go ahead and follow Kudlow & Cramer to your grave.
Meanwhile, I'm buying more metals with the dip. The phony rally has been expected, no big surprise.
"Please oh wise ones, tell me more about what I should do."
I'd suggest buying all the San Diego real estate you can afford; cash.
Hyperinflation, anyone?
http://tinyurl.com/2828hw
What people have little of will go up in price: that is cash, US dollars. In deflation, gold, oil and real estate will decline for years.
IMO, Joe 6-pack is still in Denial. Enough news is out that he should be feeling Anxious, but Fear won't happen until he is personally affected.
"minor speedbump, things always bounce back"
Denial... yaa that's the river that runs through the middle of Egypt right.
Have I been in denial? No... I haven't had the chance to go swimming there yet.
But I think it would be SOOO cool to swim by the pyramids though.
Wups... Survivor is back on... buhbye...
It's possible that we are in several parallel investing universes. Neither are absolute.
What I mean is this, right now -as I am doing, I have a few long stocks and they are doing great..when they don't I will find something else or wait. Some cash parked in safe CD's...because I can't see a new good moves now...that's just me.
Hey, Wall Street clearly operates on a different frequency and am happy to ride it while I can. It's not absolute that you can't make money right now on WS, and wait out this credit mess at the same time. Open your minds.
Now and in the near future is when good money can be made on WS. Yea, things look scary, some of these credit issues might collatarely effect us as well. But you can find a good chart/stock and buy it for a bit. So cheers to those earlier posts about winning long today.
Tomorrow a lot of shorts could win too. Viva la difference!
Just don't get stuck in the quagmire while enjoying the Schadenfreude...
Am a long time lurker here...even longer WS investor, I enjoy the investment cycles, I recommend it.
Please oh wise ones, tell me more about what I should do.
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it is quite simple, really. Do you think financial stocks in 6 months will be:
a) higher
b) lower
c) the same
you can make money with either a,b, or c. Personally, I am betting b, though I did close out a lot of my short positions about 3 weeks ago. If the market continues to rally over the next week I will open up short positions again.
This is the 3rd bubble I have lived through. I missed out on the PC bubble (remember how many PC manufacturers there used to be?), was a little late getting in on the internet bubble downside but I have been riding this last one down the whole time and it has more down to go.
Damn, beat me to it. I knew some form of DOPES would make a return today. Dow up 260. WTF
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The market is saying a rate cut is coming to town...
I believe that prices will decline and then they will increase. I just bought a home in Park Ridge, IL for 950K. The original listing price was 1.5M thus I got a good deal. I have a hybrid loan and in a couple of years my property will be worth perhaps 1.3M to 1.9M and I can sell it to someone else.
Who cares what phase we are on? REALLY. I live life to the fullest and I live life on CREDIT. When the bill comes due, what will the government, my creditors, etc... do? Will they send me to debtor's prison? Come on Keith, let's be realistic. I will walk away from my obligations. I figured that if all of these big banks will be bailed out and the government won't help me, then I will just walk away from my financial obligations.
Oil will keep going up until the two oil men in the White House, that you people elected, leave office
So what can Hitlery or Osama do to make oil prices go down? Will they force OPEC to lower prices? Will they force Uncle Ben to raise rates and bring on armageddon?
Please oh wise ones, tell me more about what I should do.
You should do like the smart money and take this dead cat bounce opportunity to sell and buy more metals and commodities. Only the suckers are stying in this market.
Time to double down on shorts because January is going to be as fun as August was.
I'm ready and took the opportunity of yesterday's sucker rally to get rid of what was left. Bought more metal and commodities through Canada.
I'm all out of the bankrupt US market. Let the suckers get f*cked so they can live under their Made in China American flags.
IM NOT BUYING BUT I AM PLANTING LONG TERM ORCHARD CROPS IN POTS///
So what can Hitlery or Osama do to make oil prices go down? Will they force OPEC to lower prices? Will they force Uncle Ben to raise rates and bring on armageddon?
1. Transfer that sh!t load of oil subsidies to fund alternative sources of energy instead.
2. Tax oil/gas to death.
3. Install a truck load of incentives for hybrid vehicles.
etc, etc, etc...The sky is the limit.
Wait and see. Bye-bye oil mafia. Come back after the elections to say hi.
I dunno about about the US but Australia is still firmly in the "Euphoria" (I am smart ... mate) phase.
It is going to be epic. Watch Perth in Western Australia for a wild ride.
I think Perth has something like the third or fourth most expense real eastate in the world!
Not bad for a 2 bit place on the butt end of the world few people has ever even heard about ;-)
Would someone please give andrew hac his zoloft and a glass of milk (meow)
Frank said:"I was back in Scottsdale a few weeks ago and even *I* was stunned at the expansion of photo radar. Driving down Shea at night I felt like paparazzi were around with all the flashes going off. It seemed like you couldn't go anywhere without a camera waiting."
cameras seem like a nuisance now, but when the SHTF, beat police will be available for more important crimes such as robbery, home invasions, carjacking, rioting, looting, etc...
I think police departments across the US know what's coming (Greater Recession) and preparing for it by installing these cameras at busy intersectons...the good thing is, cops will be more available for higher priority crimes such as the above I mentioned...
How's that dow 5000 prediction everyone? Keep renting, keep stuffing your money under the mattress."
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Keep falling for the illusion of a "booming economy" which is really the PPT pumping money so the markets dont collapse until after the holidays.
All stocks are doing is seesawing back and forth. If you call that a buying opportunity...well good luck with that!
Anon said:"figured that if all of these big banks will be bailed out and the government won't help me, then I will just walk away from my financial obligations."
Good luck running from the bill collectors and especially the IRS.
1. Transfer that sh!t load of oil subsidies to fund alternative sources of energy instead.
2. Tax oil/gas to death.
3. Install a truck load of incentives for hybrid vehicles.
1. Would you care to name all these imaginary oil subsidies? If anything, alternative energy is getting a sh!tloan of subsidies. There is a 50 cent/gal subsidy on ethanol.
2. Taxing oil/gas would only increase the prices, you idiot.
3. Hybrid vehicles do not get much better gas mileage than gas engine vehicles. Besides, do you think the two Democrat Senators from Michigan will allow that to happen?
You libtard morons are funny. Let's shut down Exxon and Chevron so we can depend on PetroChina and Saudi Aramco to supply our oil. I'm sure they will be nice and give us a discount.
Living in the bay area, I can tell you we're no where NEAR panic. These sheeple tell each other this market "never goes down". Truth is, it has and it does.
With that said, far more has to happen in this country to get anywhere near "panic" stage in that chart. So we're in for a long haul, because denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
Anonymous said...
"Toni Yates, a real estate agent in the Lake Anna area, said the nuclear plant's proximity has not hurt sales of vacation homes or full-time residences."
LMAO!!! I wonder what these sheeple will do when they start to GLOW flourescent green!!!
Actually studies show that real estate prices, income, quality of schools are higher near nuke plants compared to other areas. Plus envirofags have no clue about the safety and science behind nuke plants. Russian plants - Chenobryl faulty designs.
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