Why do people call us "doom and gloomers"?
I'd bet most of us are simply optimists and realists. I know I am. During the (early part of) the bubble, I was rah-rah, and made some good money on real estate and stocks.
But then when things spun out of control, and it became unsustainable, I looked at the data calmly, and how market participants were behaving, and compared the situation to past manias, and the realist in me decided pretty easily that it was time for a new strategy. And nearly everything predicted here has now come to pass, or is happening in front of our eyes.
And so here we are.
HP is a realist blog folks. I know REIC and homedebtors hate us, thinking we helped stop the party, and are all doom-and-gloom, but we're just telling you how things are going to be, if you care to listen. And deep down, you probably know all of this stuff too (or at least you should), but you're simply in denial, or you're painfully ignorant.
We aren't.
Look back to the "17 reasons" post the other day. The best thing that can happen to America (and the world) now is a crash and a recession. Too many stupid people doing too many stupid things, too many stupid (and corrupt) leaders doing stupid things that will negatively impact future generations, and this is how life stops stupidity and stupid (and corrupt) people. And after the crash, hopefully most of us will be smarter and wiser.
Happy Thanksgiving. Be thankful for what you have. And starting tomorrow, do your best to try to keep it.
November 22, 2007
Those HP'ers are just a bunch of doom and gloomers!!!
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You know that has been the burden I've been carrying as most of you other HPer's. Being able to analyze actual data and forecast that data. Not to mention, use some very simple foresight makes us doom and gloomers?
It will be a rude awakening for most of the US population. Q public enjoys living in the land of make believe. That is why it is so easy for Bush's clan, BB, CNBC, etc to spew so much fluff praying the public doesn't catch on.
A message for all of you who think we are freaks... wouldn't you want to know (TRUTHFULLY) if there was an earthquake off the coast and we were expecting a Tsunami?
I don't enjoy knowing this?!?!? I don't want this to happen. I'm not celebrating a total collapse. But it's happening right now as I'm writing this... THAT IS A FACT
Besides, as I've said before you do NOT have to be a brain to SEE how the chain of events will unfold. You just have to OPEN your eyes. It's a domino effect!
Well this is more like a virus affecting every part of the body.
I guess it's kind of like being an oncologist.
My point is... it's BAD news and nobody wants to hear BAD news! I know I don't. However, it what it is.
My beef is that this situation could have been prevented. Unlike a natural disaster causing so much grief!
Nevertheless, what's done is done and everyone needs to be prepared! In every sense of the WORD...
Happy Thanksgiving, Keith.
I am not all gloom and doom, but I have prepared, in my own way.
peace out.
Right on.
I'm an optimist. But first and foremost I'm a realist. Things have seemed too good to be true and that should cause any intelligent person to ponder the consequences. I know drinking too much will result in a fantastic party and will be followed by a stinking hangover.
Likewise, the spend-a-thon we've recently been party to.
I don't revel in bad news per se. My only interest is in looking to avoid the dire consequences of sticking my head in the sand and telling myself 'it's all good'.
We've all had a fantastic run of good luck. The sensible have used it to build a financial moat around themselves with the view that bad times follow good times. The stupid have assumed the party will go on and on ad nauseum.
Cheers to you Keith,
Haggis
Keith,
As one rapper said it so eloquently,
"You can't stop reality from being real."
Happy Thanksgiving to you too.
One good thing about the Housing Panic blog is that it allows both pro and con opinions regarding the state of the housing market. I've been very negative on housing for the past 4 years (2 years too early) and was in the hole quite substantially short-selling the housing stocks. Thankfully, I'm now showing huge gains on those positions.
I tried to post a comment at Ben Jones blog suggesting that lower interest rates might bring an end to this sooner than we think. It was never posted.
Back to my point, the bond market has really been finding bids here and rates are plunging. It looks like bond traders are pricing in a huge slowdown in the economy. This could result in a revival for the housing companies...maybe sooner than we think. The way interest rates fluctuate enables the economy to be self-correcting to a certain degree.
Happy Thanksgiving Keith!
It still amazes me posters are calling us doom and gloomers. It does help our cause that the media and local new shows are now fully on board and publishing headline new about the slowing of real estate brings more validation to what we here at HP have been saying for the longest time.
Too much of the "greed factor" blinds people from seeing the truth in both the stock & RE market.
That mentality will hurt a lot of people very soon.
The credit machine is on the verge of going into reverse. The Fed pumping in liquidity is all that stands in the way. This as cdos get revalued everyday. We'll be back to the horse-and-buggy era and maybe the 2001 Space Odyssey scene where the ape throws the bone in the air, all thanks to the pitfalls of modern finance.
"Why do people call us 'doom and gloomers'?" Because Americans don't want to hear about bad things. I've always thought that we're generally an optimistic people (except when it comes to our views on government). I've read that this way of thinking is rooted in Manifest Destiny (expansion/progress forever) and the American Revolution (government is corrupt). Anyway, this positive outlook comes at a cost. When confronted with bad news, these days our mindset is, "I don't want to hear about it." Which is sad, because time and time again Americans have shown an ability to overcome hurdles thrown their way. The problem is made only worse as we believe someone (Uncle Sam) will come along and magically fix it for us. In the meantime, we remain in a state of denial and fail to confront the problem, which only magnifies in scope. One day, the problem becomes a crisis of epic proportions. And it is my belief that regarding the U.S. economy, there are several "problems" which are combining to produce a devestating financial storm.
To those who accuse some of us of being all “doom and gloom:”
I don’t expect my home to burn down, but I still own smoke detectors.
I work hard to avoid car accidents and personal injuries, but I still have auto and health insurance.
Are we a little over the top? Perhaps, but I prefer to think of it a rational self-interest.
In the business I own, it is my job to consider and plan for all options, as ridiculous as some of them might seem. It always seems that problems come from NOT planning.
Do we WANT the crash to come? No, not really. We think it is going to come. Evidence is piling up every day telling us that it IS going to come. If you think something is going to happen, and you don’t plan for it, it’s called irresponsibility.
Sure, you can probably get away with living life under the philosophy that “someone will solve our problems and save the world,” but that doesn’t remove your responsibility to take steps to protect yourself.
If you think that the government will “figure something out,” waving their magic wand to make it all better, tell it to the people who lived through Katrina.
To quote Mr Burns: They have flower power, but we have GLOWER power....ooooooooo
Consider myself a realist and I make it a point to try and understand the motive behind the actions of those who control our society. Motive is everything.
As to why I am a "doom and gloomer":
1) Been thru a RE bust already and this one is almost a carbon copy of the last one (CA RE in early 90;s) as far as MSM response, NAR response, denial, falloff of luxury retail, etc.
2) I passed HS math. If you do the math todays home prices are simply unaffordable. The "traditional loan" (3x gross income MAX) dictates what houses can be sold for.
3) I am not a lemming and do not get caught up in manias and Ponzi schemes (except Amway once when I was young and foolish).
4) I have no desire to be rich and live in a fancy house. My needs are simple and I just want enough space to get by.
5) I am a student of history and know all too well the tricks and cons that are used repeatedly to trap fools and suckers. PT Barnum was correct....
6) I am not sedated by TV, video games, or any of the other modern "pacifiers" that keep others oblivious to what is going on around them much like an ostrich with its head in a hole.
7) I get my "news" from alternative sources so my diet of news is not focused on "big stories" like Brittany, Marie, or other rubbish.
8) Even with my small brain I am able to connect the dots and extraplate to make predictions about the future.
If all the above makes me a "doom and gloomer", then all I can say is....consider the source of the accusation.
...The best thing that can happen to America (and the world) now is a crash and a recession.
Wrong! The best thing that can happen is a complete collapse of the monetary system and the corporate fascist bankster gubbermint. The American people need some pain.
Yeah yeah, you made a mint before the bubble and now you're so concerned for the rest of humanity.
Please. You're just like most of the people on these blogs- those who didn't buy and fear being priced out of the conformity of owning a house. People here love to say they "cashed out at the top" or "shorted" this stock or that stock and made out like bandits. 99% of that is pure bullshit.
Nothing wrong with admitting that you find the lack of affordability of housing to be a bad thing for society and you specifically. But in our sick, hyper-competitive, culture, such an admission opens you up to being chided as a loser who "missed the boat" or who has sour grapes.
I'm not sure which is sicker: those who celebrate housing have been turned into an instrument of greed or those driven to start schadenfreunde blogs who obsess over the fact that they didn't make it to the party. In either case, both camps aren't thinking of the greater good in any way at all.
The best thing for humanity would be if the capitalistic disease that leads to this unsavory behavior could be cured. Instead, we find more people to infect.
Keefer,
You are doomers and gloomers. You take bad news like dow dropping 200 points and extrapolate an oncoming depression out of it. You have become a caricature of yourself, an SNL skit of a blog.
Princess Mononoke:
>My beef is that this situation could have been prevented. Unlike a natural disaster causing so much grief!
No this situation could not have been prevented because that would imply that certain people did not want to make profit.
What distinguishes a free market from say a communist or socialist system is that there are bubbles and these cycles. These cycles are a natural part of the system.
Where these cycles become bad is when people start saying "oh its a new age" eg Internet or whatever else buzzword.
The real problem was that people believed that they could get rid of risk via structured products when in fact they were just fooling themselves.
Boom2Bust.com said...
"Why do people call us 'doom and gloomers'?" Because Americans don't want to hear about bad things. I've always thought that we're generally an optimistic people (except when it comes to our views on government). I've read that this way of thinking is rooted in Manifest Destiny (expansion/progress forever) and the American Revolution (government is corrupt). Anyway, this positive outlook comes at a cost. When confronted with bad news, these days our mindset is, "I don't want to hear about it." Which is sad, because time and time again Americans have shown an ability to overcome hurdles thrown their way. The problem is made only worse as we believe someone (Uncle Sam) will come along and magically fix it for us. In the meantime, we remain in a state of denial and fail to confront the problem, which only magnifies in scope. One day, the problem becomes a crisis of epic proportions. And it is my belief that regarding the U.S. economy, there are several "problems" which are combining to produce a devestating financial storm.
November 22, 2007 3:18 PM<<<
what is an american? when you think about it, there really is no such thing, in a national context. when you look at the aricles of confederation which were thrown out in favor of the constitution of the united states, you see what this land was supposed to be. it was supposed to be a collection of independent states that came together when it was necessary to protect each other from outside invasions, etc. strong central governments serve those who want it so, better than the people who live in these several states, on that you can be sure. the term american was used to denote someone from the americas, which included the new world as it was known in the 1500's or whenever. to speak of americans, one must favor a strong central government in which some of the founding fathers were of course, in favor of vs. a weak central government and states rights. to me , the term american is one in which the strong central corrupt government we have is supported and the existence of, is a source of rejoicing. such is the way it is, here, when we say things that we have been told to say and do things which we have learned in government schools and do not have any idea of what we say or do, not in the least. we are brainwashed from the day we are born and we are slaves now. until we break free from this insanity, it will only get worse. thomas paine said...A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong gives it a superficial appearance of being right...for too long we have thought things that were right were wrong and things that were wrong to be right. we must make adjustments to our thinking now as this bogus game we have been playing for so long comes to a end. this house of cards is falling now. we must return to the way we once were, albeit , kicking and screaming and clutching at things that we perceived for so long to be good things....The Bible speaks of this in Isaiah 5:20 .......Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
is this not the way we are now?
Edmund Burke, a Irish statesman and a member of the House of Commons during the times of the great revolution, and strong supporter of the colonies said one time.... All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.
you can call me an american if you wish but i am texan by birth. the rights of states is the key. many of the people who came together wanted the articles of confederation to be the founding documents but the federalist, who favored a strong central government , ditched that effort. the strong central government is from satan on that you can be sure. he is about control. and control is what we now have and it is only getting worse under the guise of homeland security and other nonsense. if it was not for the fact that we have so many guns, they would have already had their way with us. i am a texan first and an american due to the fact that i live in the americas.
The people here aren't doomers, not really, in the years to come we will see that even HP was overly optimistic.
I love HP.
I'll see you non-believers/Bush supporters (probably at gunpoint - I'll be the one holding the gun with the hammer back and the barrel pointed and held to your ear, my finger resting on the trigger)when the riots begin, which looks to be before summer.
Your family will have all been killed in the looting and you will be hungy and thirsty. A scarlett Red "D" (signifying debtor) will be carved into your forehead and an ugly scabby crust will have formed where the knife made its cuts. It will be infected, as you are now...
Sound far-fetched? Wait until dollars are suspended and you have none anyway, no food, water is contaminated from the terror attacks and you are a worthless lout anyway with no tangible skills other than complaining you are a victim and charging shit you didn't need and cannot afford -well all that is gone now, bartered to try to save your loved ones lives -you failed, they are dead, killed one-by-one in front of you, because of your profound stupidity, you fanny pack, distended belly greedy PIG.
An excerpt from the new book: Death of America - How My Family and Friends Killed America.
Choke on your turkey, turkey.
"Why do people call us 'doom and gloomers'?"
Because they're pissed that we were right, and that they can't brag about being up another 50k on their house last year, and "doom and gloomers" is the best they can come up with to stick it to us. In response, I would call them "homedebtors" and/or "stupid-asses". Of course, this should only apply to those that call us "doom-and-gloomers"; those that don't probably own their house to live in it, and are probably neither homedebtors nor stupid-asses.
I consider myself an "uberdoomer"...
You all should get your preps in order...
I am a gloom and doomer because…
I say things that people don’t like such as.
Property is going down.
Income is shrinking.
There is little personal savings.
The media is liberal and does not represent most of the people.
The media is there to brainwash you into accepting their ideas.
Taxation without representation is slavery.
The police can’t come to your aid in time, get a gun.
Fiat currency is play money.
Debit is not wealth.
Sound money is backed by Gold and Silver.
Stocks are paper investments.
Free country means gays and abortion are outside the scope of government control and individual choices.
Criminals don’t obey laws anyway.
People are afraid of their own government.
The government is tyrannical.
California is a liberal socialist Republic.
The patriot act removed all your rights.
Freedom of speech is being challenged.
And on and on and on.
From one realist to another,
Happy Thanksgiving Keith!
I enjoy HP so much!! I'm addicted!!! I even look at it on thanksgiving day!! Happy thanksgiving to everyone out there!! YOu too Keith! I guess unfortunately I am in real estate and i am looking for something else to do till it comes back, but my problem is what is a safe bet with this downturn? I feel like it is medical or state/county employment. Any ideas for me? I think being a realist is important b/c they think with logic instead of trying a pursuasive marketing to brainwash the mind! I wish I knew about the bubble sooner so i could have prepared better but oh well! I agree with the point that americans are at their best when they need to do something! Final thought, people do not like hearing bad news especially when it comes to their house! They feel insulted especially when i do an appraisal! I know people think I am doom and gloom. I can see it when I start telling what I have read on HP. Almost like why do you read that crap?! I just wish I was better prepared!!
rich in fl
Keith,
Happy Thanksgiving. Don't worry... The Secret will set you free. I am eternally grateful for things like currency devaluation and torture. Just think about tourists from everywhere coming to our Walmarts and Kohls. Last night, Brian Williams had a 5 minute piece about the good side of the dollar's demise. Could someone please comment on this and enlighten me????
A few years ago everything around me was going nuts,houses overnight doubled in price and being sold before they hit the market. My buddy down the street kept telling me buy another house or you'll be stuck here. I would tell him why should I sell my paid for house to buy another one and be a instant 100 g's in the hole. One night I typed in the search "crazy houses prices" and ended up here, there are some sane people out there that are thinking. Now in my area tons of houses for sale and in foreclosure or for rent and the new one "rooms for rent" I tell people that 2008 is going to be a very interesting year.
well let's see here. we have the macey's day parade was on earlier, now we have some dumb ignorant and large black men running up and down the basketball court playing a game on another television channel, and hmm, oh we have some big league football coming on very soon on another channel.......
oh heck, what me worry??? everything is just fine in amerika.....we have our basketball, and our football and our parades.....what the heck, what has changed.....why worry, we don't have a thing to fret about. its all good......its all good.....
Bust a nut on a realtor today.We are smart investors on this blog and realize when the party is over.A lot of morons thought the party would go on forever.How soon they forget nasdaq 2000 implosion based on the same greed.Buy fear and sell greed and you to will be a millionaire.
"And nearly everything predicted here has now come to pass, or is happening in front of our eyes."
That is not true and you know it. You have been predicting 50 or 60% drops in real estae prices. Even the worst areas are maybe 20%.
You predicted 7000 DOW last. It is twice that today.
You predicted Counrywide would be bankrupt at least 10 times by now.
And on and on.
Kiyosaki said it best: "The purchase of a home is an emotional decision, and when emotions go up, financial IQ goes down."
No matter how much logic we put forth, homedebtors and realtwhores have an emotional attachment to real estate and as a result they will continue to live in denial and continue to put forth completely illogical arguments.
I get a good laugh every day here reading the totally moronic arguments homedebtors post here.
America is the greatest country in the world. I dont care what all you doom and gloomers say.
Many of us are still living the high life. (like me)
We are one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for celebrities.
And in case your wondering, yes, I am a celebrity. I am a legend in my own mind. It doesnt matter who I am (Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan) YOU ALL WORSHIP us.
RE: "17 reasons": Recession without Romance
No "doom-and-gloom" talk - just plain facts.
I'm sure everyone here would agree that hearing about the upcoming problems we'll be facing is far better than having to see and feel them in real time.
Boom2Bust.com said...
"Why do people call us 'doom and gloomers'?" Because Americans don't want to hear about bad things. I've always thought that we're generally an optimistic people (except when it comes to our views on government). I've read that this way of thinking is rooted in Manifest Destiny (expansion/progress forever) and the American Revolution (government is corrupt). Anyway, this positive outlook comes at a cost. When confronted with bad news, these days our mindset is, "I don't want to hear about it." Which is sad, because time and time again Americans have shown an ability to overcome hurdles thrown their way. The problem is made only worse as we believe someone (Uncle Sam) will come along and magically fix it for us. In the meantime, we remain in a state of denial and fail to confront the problem, which only magnifies in scope. One day, the problem becomes a crisis of epic proportions. And it is my belief that regarding the U.S. economy, there are several "problems" which are combining to produce a devestating financial storm.
Here's a headline that must make the HP Haterz upbeat:
LONDON (CNN) -- Growing unease among investors has driven banks in Europe to temporarily suspend trading of covered bonds, the latest sign of the deepening problems in the mortgage debt market.
Covered bonds are debt securities that often are backed by a pool of home loans. They're one of the many funding markets European banks have looked to recently to raise money to grant mortgages.
Compared to other mortgage-backed securities, covered bonds are generally considered safe, since investors usually have a preferential claim when borrowers default.
But growing risk aversion among investors led the European Covered Bond Council, which represents banks and other participants in this market, to recommend Wednesday that trading be suspended until next week.
Note to Haterz calling HP'ers doom and gloom: When you are all bleeding on the streets, I will still spit on you.
Have a nice Thanksgiving, crooks and selfish Baby Boomers.
optimism does not define the naive ignorance that exists in America.
The only reason we developed into a superpower was because of our location. We just happen to be surround by the 2 largest bodies of water on the planet. We have the barren icelands of Canada to the north, and the inept Mexicans to the south. We were simply able to grow in population, food stores, and technology before anyone could mount an attack.
I laugh everytime I wear my Guinness t-shirt that says "Since 1759" That's 17 years BEFORE the Declaration of Independence. There are buildings, roads, and artwork that were created before America was even discovered!
Americans have no sense of history, they can't even point out US states and cities on a map.
America is in for a real shitstorm. Empires rise and fall, governments are overthrown, wars rage, times change.
It is inevitable
when the british surrendered at yorktown in 1781, it was a great day for liberty or was it?
the brits were lucky. if it has been me, i would have made them leave with nothing but their bloomers and their boots and everything else would have been booty for my men.......and if they would not do it, then i would have starved them out and continued with the bombardments until they saw things my way.....they got a sweet heart deal and for this we had to fight them again in 1812.
Lord cornwallis upon surrendering to washington made the following statements...
a holy war will now begin on America, and when it is ended America will be supposedly the citadel of freedom, but her millions will unknowingly be loyal subjects to the Crown.Your churches will be used to teach the Jew's religion and in less than two hundred years the whole nation will be working for divine world government. That government that they believe to be divine will be the British Empire. All religions will be permeated with Judaism without even being noticed by the masses, and they will all be under the invisible all-seeing eye of the Grand Architect of Freemasonry."
and so it has been as he said......and we wonder why this country is so messed up now.
just call me a domestic terrorist. i am politically incorrect and glenn beck thinks i should be arrested. go ron paul....
Interesting street.com spoof of Angelo Mozillo
http://tinyurl.com/2masrc
Keith you've done a great job with this blog. Your housing calls were right on. But people call you "doom and gloomers" when you take things that one step too far.
Most homedebtors do not hate you. Most do not use their homes as investment tools/ATMs/status symbols/etc. A very visible and loud minority did. These people probably do dislike being told the truth, but on the whole people remain unaffected by the recent financial mess. They may be paying a bit more at the pump and the market, and long term there may be some greater ramifications, but most people are just living their lives.
Perhaps they should be more worried about the future, but since there's not one safe route to take, does it really matter? Whenever you ask "how are you preparing?" you get about one hundred different answers, some of them completely contradictory.
Housing (and the RE industry) needs to be corrected, and it's happening as we speak. The dollar isn't doing so hot right now, but there are sign that in the near future it may improve. The stock market has always been a mystery to me, which is why I'm not in it.
I guess my point is that we're going to feel some pain. How much will remain to be seen. We shouldn't shy away from it, but we also shouldn't dwell on it to the point of obsession.
Personally, I'm debt free, have enough money saved to get by for a few years, and I'm young. I'm just going to live my life, play it a bit conservative, and not keep myself up a night worrying. If the excrement hits the windmill, I'll meet it head-on.
They're charging $50,000 for the rights to buy season tickets for the Dallas Cowboys new stadium next year. I don't know how much the tickets cost. Maybe $25,000 per year?
I only want carnage and misery for the people who participated in the ponzi scheme. This includes the realwhores, mortgage brokebacks, Wall St pimps, lenders, bond investors, flippers, housing ATM'ers, serial refi'ers and suicide debtors who drove the prices up.
Keith I have to say you keep this BLOG interesting even on the holidays. I've been reading you since the beginning and in a "journalist" sense as ewll as an entertainer you've knocked it out of the park.
In a few years when I do by my home I'll be offering up a toast to You, Patrick and the rest of the community.
Cheers
A little message from HP'ers for this Thanksgiving:
If you camp overnight outside a box retailer, inline behind a zillion people, just to rush in when the doors open so you can run over your fellow idiot in a stampede to buy crap from your master China:
YOU SHOULD BE SHOT TO MAKE THE PLANET A MUCH BETTER PLACE.
Princess M - send me an email
i would have made them leave with nothing but their bloomers and their boots and everything else would have been booty for my men.....
Yarrrrrrr! Make 'em walk the plank ye scurvy knave!
Anonymous said...
I love HP.
I'll see you non-believers/Bush supporters (probably at gunpoint - I'll be the one holding the gun with the hammer back and the barrel pointed and held to your ear, my finger resting on the trigger)when the riots begin, which looks to be before summer.
Your family will have all been killed in the looting and you will be hungy and thirsty. A scarlett Red "D" (signifying debtor) will be carved into your forehead and an ugly scabby crust will have formed where the knife made its cuts. It will be infected, as you are now...
Sound far-fetched? Wait until dollars are suspended and you have none anyway, no food, water is contaminated from the terror attacks and you are a worthless lout anyway with no tangible skills other than complaining you are a victim and charging shit you didn't need and cannot afford -well all that is gone now, bartered to try to save your loved ones lives -you failed, they are dead, killed one-by-one in front of you, because of your profound stupidity, you fanny pack, distended belly greedy PIG.
An excerpt from the new book: Death of America - How My Family and Friends Killed America.
Choke on your turkey, turkey.
November 22, 2007 5:10 PM<<<<
God, i love this guy......:)
Hahah .. Prepare for doom... Buy Gold and bullets and wait for the Chaos.. Loll.. This site just adds fule to the fire of doom.. All the negativity will end up harming each and every one on this site.. Like I said in another post. HP is like the picture of the snake eating its own tail.. Good werk Hp's... Keep it up!
Where is that depression? Why is the DOW still above 10000? Where can I get those McMansions for pennies on the dollar? Why isn't there blood in the streets?
Why aren't all those things you "optimists" have been predicting for over a year coming true?
Serpentmage>>
"The real problem was that people believed that they could get rid of risk via structured products when in fact they were just fooling themselves."
No. They didn't think they could get rid of the risk. They knew there was a profitable alchemy in making dodgy mortgages look like AAA paper and loading up some poor sucker (like your pension fund, foreigners, etc.) with sh*t. The basic ethical dilemma of this travesty is that the players knew they weren't gambling with their own money. And the regulators were either asleep or complicit.
At the retail end the punters were buying 100% financed homes-if it goes up its mine, if it drops I walk. They were sold mortgages by processing clerks looking at their commission and with no motivation to look further. These were in turn shifted off the books by banks to third party suckers which generated lucrative investment banking fees.
And the ultimate bagholder is Main Street.
I just got back from Thanksgiving dinner and everyone is still in the denial stage here (Las Vegas). Everyone I spoke to about the housing market were positive the market would rebound in 08' and everything would be fine. They didn't want any part of my reasons why they were wrong and insisted the party would pick up again next year. Keep in mind these are people that bought during the bubble :P.
if i could free my mind from this debt struggle, i might sort out the dozen or so reyouthing fountains of cellular thousand year immortalitys lifespans available today........... into "modern "feasibilities...or reasons for new world orders..........
may be a snl skit of a blog...but it is well done and ease of access....remember to click the http/www. line if page does not come thru right away/.
What I don't get is why you are all eagerly await this doom. If this apocalypse does materialize it will hurt everyone, renter, owner, those with debt, those without debt. If you can't find a job doesn't matter if you own or rent. Doesn't matter if you lease a BMW or own a 20 year old Toyota.
I read all this macho bullshit about buying guns and bullets. Gee what a life that will be huh? Walking around with your loaded gun ready to kill your neighbor for his food.
THAT is the kidn of rhetoric that makes you doomers and gloomers and over the top.
And for you gold bugs, think about this. When the nightmare scenario you envision does arrive, your gold will be worthless. When people are fighting for survival, owning gold is about the last thing on their mind.
Doom & gloom? Here's some anecdotal support. Our family decided to have Thanksgiving dinner at an upscale restaurant in a nice mountain town in Colorado. We've been there many times and always enjoyed the hospitality and the great food. The vibe this year was decidedly off.
We took a walk before dinner and shopped at a couple of specialty stores. I noticed about 1/4 of the storefronts on main street were empty. Not the usual seasonal closings, but empty as in gone. Many of the real estate listings on billboards and in flyers had reductions of 20% or more from the original price.
The sales clerks I met seemed distracted and the owner of one shop who likes to laugh and is usually quick to crack a joke looked like she had been run over by a truck. This was not the happy place I remembered from previous years.
The restaurant had the same vibe. Service was on autopilot, and the portions were downright stingy compared to what I remembered from previous visits.
This morning my wife asked if I'd noticed anything different in town and I told her the atmosphere was different, a combination of anger and fear. She agreed and said she really didn't feel welcome at any of the places we visited. Sure they were happy to take our money, but it's like they really didn't want to be there or were troubled by something else.
What does this mean for the big picture? Who knows, but it's another data point on the chart. Put up enough dots and a picture starts to emerge.
@ Anonymous 1:43.
You said…. “What I don't get is why you are all eagerly await this doom”
It’s not that, but there is some psychological baggage we’re letting go of. Here’s how it works:
(circa 2000)
HB’er (housing buster)… Look at me, I just bought a $500k house with no money down.
HP’er: How are you going to be able to pay for it? In 2 years you’re rate is going to go through the roof?
HB’er: Don’t be a downer. In 2 years I’ll sell the house for a profit. Don’t you get it: I’m more successful than my parents.
(circi 2002)
HB’er: Look, I just sold my house for a profit. Now that I’m a big shot, I’m going to buy 4 rental properties with no money down, and I’m moving my family into a $700k home. Look successful, be successful.
HP’er: Why double down? Why not pay off that student loan of yours?
HB’er: Because if you’re not rich, you’re a loser. Didn’t I tell you I’d make money. You HP’er’s are just suckers who don’t understand how the world works.
(Circi 2004)
HB’er: Well, the renting didn’t work out too well, but I was able to sell my houses by self-financing others with no money down loans. The amount I charge them per month is more than my note, so they do the work and I make the money.
HP’er: Do you know these people? Do you know if they can afford the house? Do you leave them enough money for cushion?
HB’er: You’re always so doom and gloom. You need to take a course in economics, you just don’t GET IT, do you??
HB’er to his HB’er friends: Let’s make fun of the paranoid crazy guy. Let’s point our fingers and shout “Cross Collateralization”
(Circi 2006)
HB’er: Those darn HP’ers. All their talk of doom and gloom have scared the credit markets. Now that my home buyers have lost their jobs and skipped town, I’m losing money on my house, but it will be OK, you can’t make more land, you know.
HP’er: Sell your houses NOW. Cash out, save your money. The house of cards you and those like you have created is about to fall. Thanks for ruining America.
HB’er: How like you to say “I told you so”. That’s what’s wrong with the world, no one knows how to play ball.
Traveler,
30 years of conservatism has sucked the life out of many people. The dog-eat-dog savagery, the winners-take-all mindset, the worshipping of money over human relationships all tear at the human spirit.
Not to mention that the people working on Thanksgiving were probably given nothing special for having to spend the day waiting on you.
KILL THE RICH
Last time I was in a mall was 2 weeks ago. It was a Tuesday night and it was quite busy. This is a very high end mall with Macy's, Bloomingdales and Nordstrom as anchors. I suppose JC Penny and Sears are hurting, on the high end all is looking good for now.
Not to mention that the people working on Thanksgiving were probably given nothing special for having to spend the day waiting on you.
KILL THE RICH
November 23, 2007 5:17 PM
------------------
Bitter renter keeps his title as most idiotic HPer for yet another month. Congrats!
Moron, this is a free country. If the employees didn't want to work on TK they could have quit and found another job that gives them the day off.
I know it's hard for an imbecile like you to understand that concept. But please try.
KILL THE STUPID
Traveler -- you sure you were in Colorado? I live in Steamboat Springs and the ski areas are absolutely booming. Steamboat can't build condos fast enough. If there was a bad vibe maybe you brought it with you.
Or maybe, as someone else said, those whom you expected to provide you with a lovely time would rather have had the day off.
skibum,
I go to Colorado to ski 2-3 times a year. Last year was the busiest I had seen it in a long time. This was also when HP was talking about depression and a 5000 DOW....which neither, surprise surprise materialized.
The regular posters here live in an alternate universe of conspiracies. But they are fun to read.
If you look at the bigger picture, HP is the EFFECT from the ACTIONS of others.
The universal law applied here is called CAUSE and EFFECT.
There cannot be an effect without a cause.
So if you follow the effects backward, you will find the source of the original action.
In [this] case, HP is one of many results that were sent in motion from the Bush Administration's acts of agression, terror alert color codes, over spending, duct tape warnings and secret paranoid-style agendas.
Well thats just for starters, but nevertheless, The Bush Administration is the true home-office of doom and gloom - as HP is just one of the effects of Bush's continued tragic leadership and 3rd grade level management - like a hell bound train full of FEAR and EVIL CORRUPTION.
Even in a Depression not everyone feels the pain. Sure, if you go to a ski resort area the people will be buying up a storm. It was always like that when I went. That's because those are the people who can afford to partake in an expensive endeavor like skiing. That's the top 10%.
You know, you can go to the gated communities of Santiago, Buenos Aires, Rio, Sao Paulo, etc, and the people there will see no problems with their countries despite the 40-60% poverty rates they all have. The czars saw no problem with the fact that in 1900 1% controlled 25% of the land and 77% of the people were peasants.
That's why so many of them ended up dead and why Stalin sent so many of their ideological brethren to die in Siberia. Tough shit.
KILL THE RICH
Sure skibum, Steamboat RE was "booming" last year. But that was last year. You're going to find a different scene there this year because real estate prices are taking a dive.
The only real estate still going strong in CO is in the NE around Fort Collins, and the NW area above Grand Junction. Those areas are seeing thousands of gas wells going in and that money has jacked up house prices. The rest of the state has flat to declining prices especially for properties that need jumbo loans.
I'm 60 years old and I'd be willing to bet that not many posters here remember the RE-lead recessions of the '70s and '80s. Beachfront condos in Maryland were going at 25 cents on the dollar and stores routinely closed at 6PM from lack of business. IMO we're in for another rough ride and the hangover from this latest debt party is going to be awful.
If I push a car down a mountain, it's gonna hit some boulders and bounce up in the air sometimes but it will still end up as a fiery wreck at the bottom. HP'ers are not conspiracy theorists nor gloom and doomers. I have to wonder why the trolls come here to spout their nonsense.
Here you go-
Everything is great!
The dollar is strengthening!
The stock market will set new highs any day.
Houses will go up and up forever.
Seriously now, who is REALLY believing in fantasies?
Hint-
Go look in one of those new high tech things called a MIRROR!
"Anonymous said...
What I don't get is why you are all eagerly await this doom. If this apocalypse does materialize it will hurt everyone, renter, owner, those with debt, those without debt."
You are correct sir! But "WE" didn't cause this. We are doing our best to adjust to what a mob of greedy people perpetrated.
"If you can't find a job doesn't matter if you own or rent. Doesn't matter if you lease a BMW or own a 20 year old Toyota."
Wrong. I OWN that old Toyota. With good maintenance I'll drive it another 5-10 years.
"I read all this macho bullshit about buying guns and bullets. Gee what a life that will be huh? Walking around with your loaded gun ready to kill your neighbor for his food."
Wrong again. Don't plan to be part of either crowd.
"THAT is the kidn of rhetoric that makes you doomers and gloomers and over the top."
That's the nature of being ahead of the curve. You're an idiot until you're proven correct...then you're a genius, but you will still hate us.
Lack of patrons in restaurants and retail shops are a good indicator
that people have less and less money to spend.
If patrons (such as your family) feel less welcome in areas you used to eat and shop at regularly, you most likely won't come back at all - which means less business - and the problems start componding themselves.
We haven't even gotten started dealing with the real mess coming down the pipe.
traveler said...
Doom & gloom? Here's some anecdotal support. Our family decided to have Thanksgiving dinner at an upscale restaurant in a nice mountain town in Colorado. We've been there many times and always enjoyed the hospitality and the great food. The vibe this year was decidedly off.
We took a walk before dinner and shopped at a couple of specialty stores. I noticed about 1/4 of the storefronts on main street were empty. Not the usual seasonal closings, but empty as in gone. Many of the real estate listings on billboards and in flyers had reductions of 20% or more from the original price.
The sales clerks I met seemed distracted and the owner of one shop who likes to laugh and is usually quick to crack a joke looked like she had been run over by a truck. This was not the happy place I remembered from previous years.
The restaurant had the same vibe. Service was on autopilot, and the portions were downright stingy compared to what I remembered from previous visits.
This morning my wife asked if I'd noticed anything different in town and I told her the atmosphere was different, a combination of anger and fear. She agreed and said she really didn't feel welcome at any of the places we visited. Sure they were happy to take our money, but it's like they really didn't want to be there or were troubled by something else.
What does this mean for the big picture? Who knows, but it's another data point on the chart. Put up enough dots and a picture starts to emerge.
Reality is one thing, but hoping for misery on the entire world is idiotic. There are plenty of idiotic leftards on this blog
Anonymous said...
>>but hoping for misery on the entire world is idiotic.
November 24, 2007 10:49 PM
I think I can speak for most HPer's that we are NOT hoping for misery. Come on. That is absurd! What I would like to see is more TRANSPARENCY! No more "off the books" accounting practices.
Where on earth did you read that? Again, the American hater's on this blog are living outside of the U.S. (ie; the Trolls are from Asia).
DENVER BROKER said "The only real estate still going strong in CO is in the NE around Fort Collins, and the NW area above Grand Junction."
You don't know what you're talking about. I LIVE in Steamboat and it is BOOMING! Get in your car, drive up here, look around, and then you'll know something for real, not something you 'heard.'
And you know what? For all the oil and gas going on in Grand Junction, I have several friends who went there, couldn't get decent jobs, and came back to the 'Boat.
I'm not saying 'its different here' or that we won't see a downturn later, but if its coming, there's no evidence of it yet.
Sorry about your friend and his failed oil patch job search. It's hard for some guys to pass the drug tests. Maybe he can get an old RV and earn some money running hookers and drugs out to the man camps. As for your claim about the "booming" real estate market up there, you need to look at the details and get past the hype from the local agents and chamber of commerce propaganda.
Unit sales in Steamboat are down compared to last year, and the price trend for homes under $500K is down. Sales of high-end properties keep the dollar numbers up, but the market is rotten at the core where average people purchase average properties. Throw in the effects of mandated "affordabe" housing and it's easy to see where prices are going.
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