November 25, 2007

It's time for the housing crash and mortgage meltdown ENRON moment. Who's it gonna be?


Countrywide? KB Home? Washington Mutual? Fannie Mae? Someone's about to go belly up. Someone big. And then after that, someone else will. And someone else will. And someone else will.

Accounting scandal, SEC investigation, bankruptcy filing, massive write-down, share price collapse, big news on CNBC, panicked investors. Who's gonna be first?


It's not a matter of if. It's a matter of when, and who. The table has been set. Who's coming to dinner? The answer(s) may shock you.

Countrywide Financial denies it's bankrupt

Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, sought to reassure investors Tuesday, declaring it has ample capital, access to cash and is well-positioned to benefit from the financial turmoil rocking the mortgage sector.

The company's statement came amid rumors the company, based in Calabasas, Calif., could be looking to seek bankruptcy protection and as its stock tumbled, at one point down more than 15 percent. Countrywide shares fell 29 cents, or 2.7 percent, to close at $10.28. At one point, the stock had dropped to a low of $8.21. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock price has been as high as $45.26.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

In other news...

Mozilo, the nation's largest mortgage crook, sought to reassure investors Tuesday, declaring he has ample capital, access to cash and is well-positioned to benefit from the financial turmoil rocking the mortgage sector.

Princess Mononoke said...

My prediction is Countryslime will be the first to file for bankruptcy. Only because they are bold faced liars! Ample capital my ass...

They had to borrow $2bill a couple of months ago. Then CW pimped themselves again to stupid money manager's for more capital a month later. They are barely hanging on a string. Their stock is in decline and will continue. They have more off balance sheet losses to report. Fannie and Freddie won't be able to buy their mortgages. They're doomed!

Like I said before BofA is claiming losses of their own. BofA is NOT going to want to buyout CW. Why would ANY bank want their name associated with predatory lending and fraud?

To Tangelo and friends, may you all reap as you have sown!

Anonymous said...

Nothing to see here, move along. Don't look behind that curtain. Trust in the big booming voice on the TV.

JerseyGirl said...

I remember seeing these types of statements when the tech bubble burst. Companies left and right had all ready imploded while their press releases said otherwise.

Howcome everyone has such short memories?

Paul E. Math said...

I think it would be interesting if the new Enron or the new LTCM turned out to be one of the GSEs (Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac).

It would really make a statement about the ultimate consequences of well-intentioned but misguided and inept government intervention.

I'm rooting for Fannie Mae to fall first, personally. They haven't filed proper financial statements with the SEC, as they are required by law, in like 2 years. Noone, including it's auditors, have any idea what the real value of their holdings are.

Fannie Mae is a total gong show of a company and they have been the backbone of the US housing bubble - the consequences of their implosion would have biblical proportions.

Shakster said...

Goood Gawd!Honey ,get the kids to the cellar.

the hulkster said...

Mozilo is so full of shit.He will tell the sheeple anything so employees and himself can dump all their shares.the company is toast.I think kb home is ok.Look at standard pacific for your first homebuilder victim.Goldilocks is alive and well for all you sheeple.

Anonymous said...

My friends dad has cd's with Countrywide. I asked him why would he risk his retirement investing with them, he said it the best rate going and besides it FDIC insured. I suggested that his father should get out of CW ASAP, even if it means paying the early withdrawal fees. No response, oh well good luck.

IMO Countywide is surviving largely on these depositors and the tax payers will end up holding the bag when default day comes.

Edgar said...

Accounting scandal, SEC investigation...

You're kidding, right? The criminal class own the SEC.

Anonymous said...

WM is a $2 stock waiting to happen...

Anonymous said...

Damn Angelo--
Haven't you at least one teeeny tiny shred of common sense left? Do you seriously have the balls to lie to investors, employees and shareholders in your Q3 results that everything is dandy, and Q4 will be profitable, yes! profitable, KNOWING what shoes are yet to drop??
You need some serious PR 101 courses, silly man.

christiangustafson said...

CFC, WaMu, Citibank, Wachovia, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and the prince of financial darkness, Goldman Sachs.

In that order.

christiangustafson said...

Savvy market watchers know that the key thing to look for with CountryWide is when Orangzillo holds a press conference and pulls out a paper lunch sack, a la Bud Dwyer. That's the signal for us to go "all-in" with an 11th hour put buy.

Anonymous said...

looks like Countrywide huh?

Anonymous said...

Per an email form the Ron Paul campaign; DONATE NOW....don't wait til the 16th. They need the $ now so they can buy more radio ads, etc... If you've already donated then you got the email too and know what I'm saying.

Anonymous said...

What proof do you have that any of the above mentioned companies will fail? Besides, even if they fail, people from around the world will continue to invest in America. They have no choice. As a matter of fact, with a world wide financial turmoil, money will take flight to safety. America will still be well positioned during this brief storm we may experience.

Andrew Hac said...

What have I told you all before on this blog ?

The Americano is Foocked to an unprecedented level as Foocked can be !!!

1) This land is full of fat-ass, obese, diabetic, divorced adults that adds no value to society.
2) Housing bubble is fueled by the greed of the fat Americano people, the common Jack-and-Jill piece of shits.
3) Every SOB in this Americano wants to be a millionaire without lifting a finger to do an honest day work.
4) The Americano likes to invade other nations to steal from their land whatever they could and call it "We are policing the freedom of the whole world". FREEDOM My Ass !!!

It is pathetic in this year 2007's to be an Americano !!!

Anonymous said...

California sees record $5 billion in foreclosure sales

DISCOVERY BAY
November 20, 2007 5:32am



• October sales traced to missed payments in March

• ‘We see no sign of a foreclosure peak’

• UPDATED at 9:53 a.m. with audio interview


October foreclosure sales increased by 40 percent from September with a total of 12,336 properties – with a loan value of $5 billion -- sold at auction statewide, according to figures compiled by ForeclosureRadar.

The Discovery Bay-based company operates a Web site that it says tracks every California foreclosure on a daily basis.


The October figure is a 568 percent increase over the same period in 2006.


There were 8,818 properties sold in September in foreclosure auctions with a value of $3.6 Billion dollars, according to ForeclosureRadar.


“We see no sign of a foreclosure peak at this point, and we don't expect to see one until the third or fourth quarter of 2008 at the earliest,” says Sean O’Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar.



(Mr. O’Toole talks about the report and why he thinks the market may be getting more attractive for investors in an CVBT Audio Interview. Please click on the link below to listen or to download to your iPod or PC.)



“The sales we are seeing now are from missed payments in March. So current auction sales really have not yet been impacted by either August’s liquidity crunch or the ARM reset peaks this month and again in March 2008,” he says.


The October ForeclosureRadar report notes that notices of default were up 11.9 percent though on a daily average basis they were down 8 percent due to the limited recording days in September. Notices of sale were up 33.5 percent to 18,929 – compared to 14,000 in September and 13,500 in August. Sales were up 39.9 percent from September.


The report also notes that third parties purchased 382 properties versus 11,953 that went back to the bank.


While defaults have been fairly flat, a far higher percentage of defaults are having notices of sale filed and a higher percentage of notices of sale are resulting in auctions, according to ForeclosureRadar.


Daily average sales went from $189 million a day in September to $216 million a day in October, a 13.8 percent increase, it says.

Homebuilders First said...

LENNAR

What's going on off-balance sheet? Joint ventures belly up. Yes, I am short. Do your own analysis; make your own decisions...

freelunch said...

I heard a hilarious statement from a financial planning/ investment show on the radio Saturday morning.

Morgan Stanley is a good company but a bad stock. HAHAHAHA! I almost swerved off the road into the trees in laughter. How about Morgan Stainbags is a great stock to short and a technically bankrupt company if you include level 3 assets. The end of the fraudulent shell game of off balance sheet fantasy island valuations has to come to an end.

This ass clown financial advisor recomend a small cap fund. Yeah way to try and outperform a recession. Instead of losing 30-40% compared to the overall market you can lose 50%.


2007/2009 housing /financail stocks = 2000/2001 dot com stocks

Anonymous said...

get the word out...

North American Union and the AMERO currency... part of the plan and reason for dollar wreck

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtWOjVxS4Qg

watch the last 30seconds especially

Anonymous said...

3rd Generation Says:

Rest Assured, 2008 will be much more expensive than 2007 in many, many ways.

We should just short the entire nation to China, learn the language and settle back for a vicious beating.

The beating is COMING though, regardless.

America the syphletic, bleeding chancre sore of the world. Turd world is being generous to describe the filthy spoiled selfish rats who call themselves americans. They are at the malls with their distended bellies and fanny packs Right Now charging shit they cannot afford or need. They will cry the loudest when put out of their house to the street. F*@ck them.

New Sign: Will NOT work for food.

shtove said...

Well, I think everyone would love if it were Goldman Sachs ... but they seem too slick to be the first to fall.

Read this in the Sunday Express today (UK tabloid), by Lawrie Holmes:

"HSBC, our biggest bank and the world's second-largest financial institution, is under scrutiny this weekend after activist investor Knight Vinke warned its total US sub-prime exposure was as high as $43 billion."

Related link:
http://tinyurl.com/2wnz3n

Apart from the dead-duck Northern Rock, that's the first time I've heard a specific 11 figure sum mentioned in relation to a single corporation.

HSBC was the first to come out with US subprime losses back in May, I think. But they've also got a lot of exposure to Europe and Asia.

Imagine if they went tits up? Yikes!

Anonymous said...

If CFC would go under it would have already happened. I think they are in the clear.

Anonymous said...

Good riddens if WaMu does out of business. They started doing business with illegals a few years ago because they were greedy SOBs.

When I opened my first bank account back in 1997 when I was 18 yrs old they asked for a valid social security number and another form of photo identificaiton to prove who I was. MaMu, Bank of America, and others are facilitating the problem with illegals.

christiangustafson said...

Let's hope the early retail #s for this weekend spike the markets up a couple of percent on Monday. Dumb money buying stocks when they're "cheap".

Then I'm going shopping for a metric shiatload of puts! I'm thinking HRB, more CTX, MS, and going back in for some more WaMu goodness.

The action from 20 down to 10 on CFC made and lost a lot of people a lot of money. More money was probably made on this back-n-forth manipulated struggle than from 40 down to 20.

Never pay 6%...NEVER said...

CountryWide and the orange man go first...stock market jumps 200 pts on such awful news.

Anonymous said...


2007/2009 housing /financail stocks = 2000/2001 dot com stocks


The crash started in spring of 2006. The difference is that it was the smaller dotcoms that went down in 2001-2002. This time, size won't matter as the big boys come tumbling down too. The only big banks that may not be hurt too much are BAC, SFC, JPM.

Anonymous said...

With the falling USD and RE prices, foreigners and vultures will eventually swoop in to buy assets. However, it will be too litlle, too late for the flippers, fraudsters and dopey lenders. Warren Buffett's Berkshire is in 25% currencies now. They and other smart money are ready to buy debt and assets for pennies on the dollar. I will also be buying junk bonds in 2008-2009 at the height of the financial panic. Many people made their fortunes on junk bonds in the late 1980's after the debt markets crashed back then.

Anonymous said...

can you believe that after all these years of building DUBAI, China, India and allow half of Mexico set up residence in the USA and then (distroying the american economy buying a 450,000 house with 3 mcdonald jobs and then forclosing)these people have the absolute nerve to talk about America as if we were some well black sheep of the family. They were flying high buying expensive cars (rolls royces) and homes (castles not mansions) and who knows what else(didn't I read some sheik paid Beyonce to entertain him for 1 or 2 million dollars for like an hour show.)***(in dubai wasn't it gold toilet seats heated at that)and now they want to say that Americans have money problems and bought things they shouldn't have and now that they aren't making any money and may go out of business (they were happily loaning money and making money hand over fist screw a credit score of 550 and a chap 7 and chap 13 on a credit report) Perhaps we should give these people a dose and let them see without AMERICAN'S they wouldn't have SHIT. (except DUBAI, they make sure they keep their blood money coming by jacking up gas prices when their bank accounts drop below 1 trillion) Becha if we pulled the plug on their AMERICAN DOLLAR IV they would get well real fast and start dumping alot of money into the US economy they so gladly charged for and keep this country shopping and keeping them rich. I can not buy a 50 inch flat screen tv with an EURO, a yuan, pound, yen, or any other of those coins, dollars or whatever. I have to buy it with my job and a green back. After this christmas the shock of having no money is going to hit a lot of non believers hard because they have not been told NO yet. Let's see what happens to China when folks quit shopping at WAL-MART, because China believes they are teaching the USA a lesson on saving money, please. Well let's see if they can drive one of those little chinese cars when America quit's shopping at the 1.00 store and the paychecks quit flowing so freely. They will be trying to welcome us back into the family through tough love (LOL) and they will finally learn all that money they made didn't come from the money fairy it came from hard working americans who you can not spank to keep under control. Remember that old saying "don't bite the hand that feeds you".
I think the real estate market was doomed when people started to sell 50 year old houses for excessive prices and dummies gave them the money instead of telling them to take a hike. And even with the market tanking people are still consummed with greed because they still want expensive houses and cars and allow their kids to spend their money on frivolous things. It's all just to show off what you can afford to finance. (I never said own) Perhaps a real depression will teach a few lessons about money and it's availability. And the purpose of the word NO.

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said...
>>I will also be buying junk bonds in 2008-2009 at the height of the financial panic.
November 25, 2007 10:46 PM

I hope you using sarcasm in this sentence...

The new JUNK is like nothing we've ever seen. There are no buyers. Ergo, you can NOT mark to market... because there is NO market! That's the current dilemma with the off-balance sheet crap.

FYI: The stuff is called JUNK for a reason!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

can you believe that after all these years of building DUBAI, China, India and allow half of Mexico set up residence in the USA and then (distroying the american economy buying a 450,000 house with 3 mcdonald jobs and then forclosing)these people have the absolute nerve to talk about America as if we were some well black sheep of the family. They were flying high buying expensive cars (rolls royces) and homes (castles not mansions) and who knows what else(didn't I read some sheik paid Beyonce to entertain him for 1 or 2 million dollars for like an hour show.)***(in dubai wasn't it gold toilet seats heated at that)and now they want to say that Americans have money problems and bought things they shouldn't have and now that they aren't making any money and may go out of business (they were happily loaning money and making money hand over fist screw a credit score of 550 and a chap 7 and chap 13 on a credit report) Perhaps we should give these people a dose and let them see without AMERICAN'S they wouldn't have SHIT. (except DUBAI, they make sure they keep their blood money coming by jacking up gas prices when their bank accounts drop below 1 trillion) Becha if we pulled the plug on their AMERICAN DOLLAR IV they would get well real fast and start dumping alot of money into the US economy they so gladly charged for and keep this country shopping and keeping them rich. I can not buy a 50 inch flat screen tv with an EURO, a yuan, pound, yen, or any other of those coins, dollars or whatever. I have to buy it with my job and a green back. After this christmas the shock of having no money is going to hit a lot of non believers hard because they have not been told NO yet. Let's see what happens to China when folks quit shopping at WAL-MART, because China believes they are teaching the USA a lesson on saving money, please. Well let's see if they can drive one of those little chinese cars when America quit's shopping at the 1.00 store and the paychecks quit flowing so freely. They will be trying to welcome us back into the family through tough love (LOL) and they will finally learn all that money they made didn't come from the money fairy it came from hard working americans who you can not spank to keep under control. Remember that old saying "don't bite the hand that feeds you".
I think the real estate market was doomed when people started to sell 50 year old houses for excessive prices and dummies gave them the money instead of telling them to take a hike. And even with the market tanking people are still consummed with greed because they still want expensive houses and cars and allow their kids to spend their money on frivolous things. It's all just to show off what you can afford to finance. (I never said own) Perhaps a real depression will teach a few lessons about money and it's availability. And the purpose of the word NO.

November 25, 2007 11:07 PM<<<

yes, and still the stock pumpers on cnbc talk about us and not them. i have news for them. when we go, we take all of them with us. there is no decoupling here. we are coupled together and the world economy may be made up of many states and countries but they are all coupled together and cannot be uncoupled, not now, not ever. we are the big player on the scene and always will be. when we go, it will cause reverberations felt the world over, including china , who some feel will be immune to our falling economy. this is why i disagree with schiff...

Anonymous said...

Wait---if illegals are getting bank accounts, then how does the 1099 tax reporting for interest work?

That's why the banks demand your SSN: to avoid facilitating tax fraud.

But if you're illegal, no problemo?

unomyname said...

I may have asked this once before but does the U.S. have the equivalent of Gemonian Steps? If so, who should be introduced to them first?

Anonymous said...

Countrywide on December 6, 2007

down that road said...

"What proof do you have that any of the above mentioned companies will fail? Besides, even if they fail, people from around the world will continue to invest in America. They have no choice. As a matter of fact, with a world wide financial turmoil, money will take flight to safety. America will still be well positioned during this brief storm we may experience."

There is a great song by the rock group Jethro Tull, Living in the Past, I hear its lyrics when I read posts like yours.

Anonymous said...

To the guys that started with:

can you believe that after all these years of building DUBAI, China, India and allow half of Mexico set up residence in the USA and then (distroying the american economy buying a 450,000 house with 3 mcdonald jobs and then forclosing)these people

===================================

You make some good points but the problem in the US is that the population of intelligent and skilled people in rapidly being lost as the gen of people who were the captains of industry in the 1950s-70s are going to the grave.

Now the US Govt. is hell bent on amnesty for 30 million illegals of which 95%+ are uneducated. Our govt. wants a population of dumbed down Homer Simpsons that speak Spanish and are happy to get a hot meal and a lay once in a while as life goals.

The rest of the world aims higher and wants to have more and be smarter next year than they were last year. It is sad how we have fallen and so hard in the past 7 years when the only priority of the nation was Al Queda while millions of invaders came into this nation.

China and India will pirate technology and manufacturing techniques that took us decades to invent while the Arabs will profit like crazy selling us oil because Americans have been brainwashed into thinking driving an SUV or heavy truck makes them rugged sporty individuals when the steering wheel is chafing the rolls of fat on their belly.

Serioulsy, I went to India in 02 and they were openly selling Windows XP Pro for $5 US in stores among other software. That is small stuff compared to the designs for things like medical equipment, hydraulic pumps, etc...that are pirated.

How did all of this occur?

One word....GREED.

Face it, we are greedy bastards that want to spend the least and get the most. The fruits of outsourcing and attrition are coming home to roost.

Anonymous said...

WaMu will be the "surprise" failure when it is discovered that all that neg amort revenue was never really there to begin with.

Anonymous said...

The stuff is called JUNK for a reason

Spoken like a true dimwit with no knowledge of finance. Junk bonds are high risk/yield bonds as opposed to low risk/yield investment grade bonds. The professionals are already waiting on the sidelines to buy these junk bonds and will make a killing. You can stick with the 5% CD's while inflation is running at 10%. I'll be looking for 25% on bonds when people freak out

Princess Mononoke said...

Anonymous said.
>>Spoken like a true dimwit with no knowledge of finance.
November 26, 2007 7:18 AM

You are funny! LMAO

Anonymous said...

You guys are as dirty as the floor traders; if anyone should go bankrupt, it's you guys who feed the rumor mill with "kentucky windage". Get real, this is not the first "banking issue" we faced; remember 1997? Who went south then? Citi got down to 15.00 per share and rebounded , as will all the other top tier banking companies....Washington Mutula, B of A, Wachovia,Citi, etc. Get Real and knoweledgeable! Alan Henry.

Anonymous said...

princess mononoke is correct. Countrywide will go belly up in December. There are already rumors circulating among employees that massive layoffs are expected in December. A BIG announcement is planned also. Hmmm, wonder what that could be?

Anonymous said...

Wow. After reviewing recent performance, I believe Wachovia has their head on the block, and soon, too. Citi group looks just plain Bankrupt to me...

I had too much cash there (Wachovia)for FDIC. Just moved some cash (CD and high interest checking) elsewhere today. If I had Citi anything I would be burning rubber to move it (who knows where? Right, but at least have the stuff 'insured')?

What a Great Country this America?

Real Estate Retards (RER)

Princess Mononoke said...

Wowee! The DJIA plunged 238 today. Down 10% today, Damn.... What a ride!

Countryslime closed at 8.64 down over a buck. Burn baby burn...

Princess Mononoke said...

Oops! Sorry about that need to retract the 10% down comment. I was looking at something else, got my wires crossed...

Anonymous said...

that the population of intelligent and skilled people in rapidly being lost as the gen of people who were the captains of industry in the 1950s-70s are going to the grave.

They're the ones who put us in this mess.

They're the ones who wrecked GM, Ford and Chrysler.

They're the ones who destroyed Pan Am, Braniff, TWA, Eastern, etc.

The economy is being carried today by technology companies and innovators who didn't exist when those so-called "captains of industry" were in their prime.

Our present and future is with companies like Microsoft, Intel, Apple, Oracle, etc. Companies that didn't exist until the late 1970s and 1980s.

Anonymous said...

Please let the first be Fannie. That b%tch has driven up the cost of housing for hardworking Americans since day one.

Decent- paid off!- homes for Americans workers! Long live the neighborhoods of PAID OFF homes!

Kill Fannie Mae and her brother Freddie!!

john r said...

One would think that these people would learn a lesson - a strong lesson - after Enron.