November 27, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day


Do realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers know how completely f*cked they are now?

62 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yes, they do know. My Friend who works as a Truck Driving instructor says that he has 3 ex-mortgage brokers per week joining the school to train to drive tractor trailers. They know that they will never return to jobs related to Real Estate.
What they don't know is that deliveries and work for Truck drivers is slowing dramatically as businesses do not require re=stock and deliveries are down. I read a thread that said in the mid-west that 400 drivers report for work and 200 are sent home as there are no routes for them to take materials. Also, new people get the terrible routes. Higher costs for gas, etc. are affecting the industry.

Anonymous said...

Greg swann doesn't but he's too stupid and arrogant

Anonymous said...

Privately they know (just by looking at their checking acount)

Publicly they still lie

Malcolm said...

They know, but they’re trying to avoid admitting it to themselves or someone else.

I’ve been in a similar situation, having ridden several companies down to bankruptcy.

You learn to shut your mouth, do your job, and avoid direct eye contact with your co-workers.

You try to ignore the facts and the world crashing down around you; hoping beyond hope that something will happen to make it all better.

I tell you, I don’t miss the bad old days.

FYI: Looks like CNBC has started targeting the “Downer Demographic” this morning.

Anonymous said...

Cramer sees inland empire in CA. Shocking.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=10391712

Anonymous said...

Comparing them to buggies is silly. People will buy homes again. They are fucked temporarily. Any realtor that makes it through the next 2 years will be fine. The rest will go back to stripping/bartening. All will work itself out.

Boom2Bust.com said...

“2007 has been a year of challenge; 2008 will be a year of opportunity for serious buyers and for REALTORS®,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told a packed house at the NAR Conference Nov. 13.

Home prices nationally have declined by some 1.5 percent in 2007, which is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation, said Yun.

“For buyers who are into home ownership for the long term, housing still remains the best investment,” he concluded.

—Source: REALTOR® Magazine Online

I don't think they realize the gravity of the situation yet. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers (a Paulson predecessor) had this to say Sunday concerning the U.S. housing market:

"...forward-looking indicators suggest that the housing sector may be in free-fall from what felt like the basement levels of a few months ago. Single family home construction may be down over the next year by as much as half from previous peak levels. There are forecasts implied by at least one property derivatives market indicating that nationwide house prices could fall from their previous peaks by as much as 25 per cent over the next several years."

"Paulson Predecessor Says U.S. Recession Likely"
http://boom2bust.com/2007/11/26/paulson-predecessor-says-us-recession-likely/

Anonymous said...

Yep, they know--here in NoVA they are starving--

Can I ask everyone a QUESTION?? I really want to know what you think---

Since we all know the a stock market crash is not a matter of "if" but "when", Do most of you feel safe having money in FDIC-insured checking accounts thesedays??

I have pulled most of my funds out of the market, and put them into a few savings accts at ING and BofA, (both accts way under the $100K FDIC limit)-but with all the talk about how even the Banks don't know what they are holding thesedays, I am getting nervous that if the shytt really goes down, even the FDIC might fail...??!! Also, ING is a Dutch company, and they will probably find some way to suspend all American withdrawls at that point, if it really turns into the Wild West!

Am I just completely paranoid here?? I mean, WTF?? Stashing cash under the mattress is starting to sound like the best way to go, and that's F'd!!

What do HP'ers really think--I am going to go take some TUMS nowww--

Edgar said...

Do realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers know how completely f*cked they are now?

Naw, they're still too hung over. Next year they will realize their pants are down around their ankles though. Fun times ahead, for me anyway!

Mammoth said...

“I don't think they realize the gravity of the situation yet.”
----------------------------------
I second the motion. Yesterday I called the mortgage broker (who I bought my first house through in 1997 and the current residence in 2001) to ask about getting some financing in case I decide to buy the 2.3 acres adjacent to my property.

His comment on the matter was: “I hope that things will turn around after the first of the year.”

Oh, and by the way, the lenders whom he works with are no longer interested in funding buyers of raw land, even though this parcel has electricity, water, and a barn on it.

Yep – things are just about to turn around - right…
-Mammoth

bubbleglum said...

"Also, ING is a Dutch company, and they will probably find some way to suspend all American withdrawls at that point, if it really turns into the Wild West!"

I pulled most of my money out of ING a few months ago and bought a 3-month CD at my local bank. It's only at 4% but at this point I'm more worried about the principal than the interest.

shit for brains said...

I heard realtors are appylying in droves for xmas jobs at places like kmart and walmart.Bartendars are also in demand for all the losers who sob in their booze.Mcdonalds is laying out the red carpet for anyone who can make a coffee drink.

GF50 said...

If there was ever a time to find out what a property is really worth its right now, as an appraiser i'm not worried.

I'm less fucked than a guy writing a blog about a economic durnturn which will one day end. At least I have a profession and its not based on a negative.

I like you blog but, the constant comments, about how people in the real state business are screwed is sooooooooooo 1 year ago. We've been screwed and its getting worse day by day. But my business has been thriving with clients wanting to know the real value of their properties.

I spent the past years hunkered down in a bunker dodging broker bullets due to not hitting values, now is my time in the sun. Its great.

6% Is Dead said...

The Realtors on top of the pyramid (You know,The ones with glamor shot ads & rolling billboards) will ride the storm out on the back of those who will soon be applying at McDonalds and Wendys. Sure...They will have to try and sell a few $200,000 homes they would have snubbed last year and settle for a paltry $12,000 commish,but a real pro has to Man up and tough out the lean times.

MarkIFC said...

I'm a "legit" Mortgage Broker-- I work only on Realtor referral and referrals from former customers. I never did an Option ARM loan. I only did one Interest Only loan in the last 10 years at the borrower's insistence. I am hanging in there. Business is down of course but I'll end up actually making more this year than in the last 2 years. A lot of that is because the business is thinning out-- those who jumped in to take advantage of the "Gold Rush" are moving on.
I was shocked the other day when I went into a very large Realtor office here in town. The #3 producing agent there was wearing a Red Lobster uniform. She told me she's working the lunch shift every day now. 64 years old and having to work at Red Lobster!

Anonymous said...

Yes I do! I have known since the begining of the year and I then and now wasn't prepared for this like I should have been. My question what career is a safe bet in this downturn. Remember some of us are still working class and not able to take advantage of this like others (shorting stocks etc.) I know I am F@#ked and I feel like I am the only one I know who feels this way. Everyone else in florida cares more about the weather! I can move but where would be a good place to go? I checked out Texas believe it or not! It's ok!! People in Fl have no idea what is about to happen or if they do they turn ignorant to the facts. Wish I found this site sooner!! IF people have answers to my questions let me know what you think.

rich in fl

Anonymous said...

As an appraiser, it will never be like it once was. Business was falling out of the sky.

We're all fucked. The most unqualified, ass-stupid appraisers are wroking for the AMC's. For 150.00 for a full appraisal. They are the whores of the appraisal business. I have no idea when or where my next order is coming from. People are grasping for straws and are starting to drown. I was concerned now I am scared. I wish this BS would just happen so we can all start picking up the pieces.

What is the next industry that will take "off"? How do I get into it NOW? Please offer suggestion. My competion will be in the hundreds of thousands. I am college educated, so the housewives Realtors and uneducated 20-30 year old mortgage brokers are out. But there are some very very well educated appraisers and highly qualified under writiers out there with decades of experience that are desperate. We are all so fucked.

devestment said...

My Market Condition...

I am still not personally feeling the trickle down from lost incomes in the historical and collectables business including coins. We did see a tremendous across the board deflation in the 1991 recession and subsequent California REIC crash. I am seeing a tremendous slow down in housing related items such as furniture and lighting.
Supplies for new start ups are strong as many are reaching for ideas that would have worked during the boom but are now not viable. The repair and restoration sector is strong as people are willing to invest in lieu of sale. This is the longest up trend cycle we have experienced. Normally, the boom bust cycle comes in 10 year increments. This cycle is a bit longer and much more severe in terms of dollar numbers and quantity of people affected. This is the first National bubble since the great depression. It is ironic how these cycles play out. Remember the pre 91 recession cycle where we had Ross Perot running for fiscal government responsibility after the pump up from Reagan? Remember how Bush Sr. won and the entire economy went on its ear? The whole thing looks like a step by step play from an instructional manual on government control and separation from wealth.

Being a hard asset dealer with 34 years experience we are use to the boom bust cycle. The same rules still apply.

a) Buy what people don’t want.
b) Sell what they do.
c) Anticipate the market.

Anonymous said...

"Am I just completely paranoid here??"

Yes.

Anonymous said...

no, they believe their own b.s.

keith said...

Hey gf50 - the f'd appraiser - got more bad news for ya - this blog is just a silly little hobby, only do it to try to put people like you out of business on behalf of the American people who won't be screwed again

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Devesment

What do people want to buy?

Anonymous said...

These housewive realtors could really care less. They'll tell you anything to get you to buy. After you've been hooked, then it's on to the S-U-C-K-E-R, who'll follow their low-cut blouses and their cheap perfumes!!! And, don't you just love the vanity photos?!

shtove said...

"Do realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers know how completely f*cked they are now?"

--------

Keith, this is old hat, isn't it?

You should be asking that question about investment bankers. The one I talk to regularly is certainly worried.

Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous,

If yo are a Certified Appraiser then fear not. Things will turn around. Enjoy the down time. Tread water while the rats drown. The crappy appriasers are going out of business. Relax and live off your savings that you socked away during the good times. I am assuming you saved since you stated you are college educated.

Montpellier said...

So, two questions:

1. Do they know they're f'd?

Yes, I think most do...I mean, they will do as Malcolm says and engage in all sorts of denial, but I suspect many know deep down that the party is over. The ones who recently left stripping, bartending, waitressing at Red Lobster and stocking shelves at WalMart will return quickly to those jobs. Yes, the "Top Producers" will probably ride it out and re-emerge in some form down the road. However, I think Keith is 100% correct: they are like Buggywhip makers.

Realtors are historically "Market Makers" - their monopoly on the MLS was the real Value Added they provided - they gave you access to a market, and buyers and sellers really needed that. As technology has moved along, particularly widespread access to the web, the need for a Realtor as a Market Maker has declined dramatically. Very few provide any real 'service' beyond that - certainly not enough of a service to be worth a 6% cut.

Realtors know this - bigtime. They are scared to death of the Internet as a market maker, and in the past ten years - since the web really took off in the mid-late 90s - they've worked hard to re-make themselves as one-stop convenience. Bundling your financing, handling inspections and appraisals, even managing escrow and closing in some states - in short, all the things that have made collusion easy in the recent Ponzi market - in order to give buyers and sellers a more valuable service.

Of course, people got ripped off...they got half-assed efforts by folks more concerned about getting their "sides" than getting the best financing, inspection, etc. for their clients. This is why sellers, when they are squeezed to show up at closing with cash, will remember...and revolt. In general it's easier to get away with those fees in a rising market - everyone walks away from the closing table with a check (including the cash-back buyer). Sellers - for whom agents have traditionally worked - will question what exactly the agent did to earn that cut.

Many agents, having recognized this inherent problem of mis-aligned incentives, are now turning to the notion of "Buyer Agency" trying to convince buyers that they really perform a service to the buyer worth a 3% price increase. Don't hold your breath.

For a wonderful parallel - consider the NYSE, which finally succumbed to large investor demands for fully-electronic trading. Many of the same dire claims about the value added by the personal desires of human floor traders to get the 'best price for the individual buyer' were made. What happened? After years of monumental resistance, and dire predictions, the automated floor opened...and the human traders became obsolete and unused nearly instantly.

Anonymous @2:26PM - you are only partially correct - people will buy and sell houses...they're doing so (at substantially reduced transaction volumes) even in this declining market. However, they're going to increasingly go FSBO or reduce the size of those commissions paid dramatically.

devestment said...

Supplies for new start ups are strong as many are reaching for ideas that would have worked during the boom but are now not viable.

historical and collectable items including coins, gold, silver.

Anonymous said...

I know some real estate agents and mortgage brokers (who've lost their jobs). I think they realise that the good times aren't coming back any time soon but they're still in a state of shell-shock.

Andrew Hac said...

Housing Bubble is created to fook the Average, White-Trash, Piece of Sh*t, Uneducated, Ignorant Americano. It was, is, will be perpetrated and planned by fat-ass Americano looking to screw another Americano. America is a land of shame with no morality but yet Americano is constantly preaching about ethical behavior, going to church, policing the freedom of the world. Freedom my ASS. Dubya Shrub + Penis Shooter just wanted to invade Iraq because of the petroleum. Well, guess what, Americano ? The fearful God is decreeing swift judgment for this greedy deed and all Americano will get it one way or another with extreme payback in blood.

Housing bubble = Americano

Anonymous said...

I am a realtor. Have been for twenty past years. I am mature enough to know that the market has its ups and downs, ups and downs. This is no different.

What you people dont realize is that prices will be going up again in January, because home prices eventually always go up. It does not matter that we are in a recession or if there are layoffs. As long as you have a house, you have an endless ATM machine.

Just look at Christmas shopping season. Its in full swing. People have tons of cash to spend.

We dont need to think and act like our parents did. (saving money) This is the day and age where you enjoy and spend money. And as long as you have a house, you have a Goldmine! Believe it!

Andrew Hac said...

Housing Bubble is created to fook the Average, White-Trash, Piece of Sh*t, Uneducated, Ignorant Americano. It was, is, will be perpetrated and planned by fat-ass Americano looking to screw another Americano. America is a land of shame with no morality but yet Americano is constantly preaching about ethical behavior, going to church, policing the freedom of the world. Freedom my ASS. Dubya Shrub + Penis Shooter just wanted to invade Iraq because of the petroleum. Well, guess what, Americano ? The fearful God is decreeing swift judgment for this greedy deed and all Americano will get it one way or another with extreme payback in blood.

Housing bubble = Americano

k.w. - southern ca. said...

Housing - and all businesses tied to it - will suffer to some degree.

Knowing that housing is no longer proping up our economy, we'll find out what businesses are left that will keep things moving forward in the coming months ahead.

Mammoth said...

“64 years old and having to work at Red Lobster!”
--------------------
Who would like to be in this person’s position? What can you do to prevent this from happening to you?

Quit buying on credit and save, save, save. Pay off you debt. Diversify your investments.

Kick the shopping addiction. Ask yourself, “Do I really NEED it or do I just WANT it?”
If you must buy, look for the sales, or buy it used.

Tell the cable company to go to hell, and while you’re at it lose your cell phone.

Replace your incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs.

Dump the SUV and drive something that gets reasonable gas mileage.

Make a concerted effort to reduce waste.

Plant a garden and try growing some of your own food.

Just wake up and turn your back on this materialistic, over consumptive culture!

You’ll be glad that you did.
-Mammoth

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:10 pm said
What is the next industry that will take "off"? How do I get into it NOW? Please offer suggestion. My competion will be in the hundreds of thousands
---------------------------
Why dont you try being a Pimp Rapper. As a former appraiser, you must have an Escalade or Hummer, right. So you're all set for your first PIMP video.

Get a bunch of hoes from the hood, buy yourself a digital camcorder, and jump into a jacuzzi with a gold chain around your neck and start rapping about how many Bi%ches you've done.
You dont even have to write it. Here, just use something I've put together;
Yo wat up all ye Dogs in da HOOD
My Crib no longer what it Should
Thinking thoughts of Suicide
But I got my Bi%ch at my side
And I still got my Pride
And I'll make it big, Ya Dig
Cause I da Man with the Plan
And Yo my number one Fan

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:10 pm said
What is the next industry that will take "off"? How do I get into it NOW? Please offer suggestion. My competion will be in the hundreds of thousands
---------------------------
Why dont you try being a Pimp Rapper. As a former appraiser, you must have an Escalade or Hummer, right. So you're all set for your first PIMP video.

Get a bunch of hoes from the hood, buy yourself a digital camcorder, and jump into a jacuzzi with a gold chain around your neck and start rapping about how many Bi%ches you've done.
You dont even have to write it. Here, just use something I've put together;
Yo wat up all ye Dogs in da HOOD
My Crib no longer what it Should
Thinking thoughts of Suicide
But I got my Bi%ch at my side
And I still got my Pride
And I'll make it big, Ya Dig
Cause I da Man with the Plan
And Yo my number one Fan

rufus10 said...

Remember that greed rolls downhill...the p****s that started this were the investment bankers, money center banks and non-bank entities (ie Ameriquest). Most of the blame belongs with them..of course, there were bad appraisers, realtors, loan officers, brokers, etc. but why should those that reeped the most profit and were most greedy get a PASS? Credit where credit is DUE!

Anonymous said...

I spent the past years hunkered down in a bunker dodging broker bullets due to not hitting values, now is my time in the sun. Its great.

Sure.

Anonymous said...

Business is down of course but I'll end up actually making more this year than in the last 2 years.

Sure.

Anonymous said...

My question what career is a safe bet in this downturn.

..........nice shoes.

Anonymous said...

You real estate agents, brokers, title company people(who can't file titles, given my experience with them), and appraisers need to start watching "Weeds" on Showtime. Cannabis is a real product with real value. Hydroponics! Smoke your way out of this bear market. 1/4 oz of White Widow goes for $80+ in most of US.

dboy

Anonymous said...

Note to workers within the real estate sector, which don't know when the next paycheck will come:

1. Don't get sick or hurt
2. Don't get into a car accident
3. Don't let your car break down (i.e., like a transmission blowing up)
4. Don't get a huge bill from IRS
5. Don't get laid off


Good luck making ends meet with a crappy job. Payback is a bitch, isn't it?

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

The mortgage brokers know because they're unemployed and working holiday retail to make ends meet but I don't think a lot of the realtors know it yet. Or they're in denial. One realtor I know believes everything will bounce back next year.

Driving around open houses this weekend for fun, there were so many realtors sitting in them that they must believe they're actually going to sell something.

They also seemed a lot friendlier and more humble than a year or two ago which was a nice change.

Just to see what kind of marketing they're doing these days, I signed the guest list at every open house we went to and actually got thank-you notes for showing up, so things have changed a lot in their business. Two years ago the attitude was "If you're not buying today then f*ck you."

Anonymous said...

If yo are a Certified Appraiser then fear not. Relax and live off your savings that you socked away during the good times.

Bwahahahaha...the entertainment value of comments keeps getting better.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about RE agents, but one lady who was a mortgage broker until October now works as a call girl servicing lonely oil field workers in Rangely, CO.

ApleAnee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

10% of agents make all the $$. The influx of part timers , green peas, and house wifes into our industry over the last three years has been insane. Now people are leaving in droves. The strong will survive. In fact the agents that survive will be right on top when it turns and you know it will. I'm surviving. I'm a Realtor and I think that it's a good time to buy for long term and currently have 2 escrows with many buyers in my pipeline aching for the right deal.
I can't wait untill it turns around again and you gloomers are still renting. I'll be there for ya!

ApleAnee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2007-11-26-subprime-credit-cards_N.htm

perhaps someone could give this chick a clue? That's what you should do - advertise in the USA Today that you are a "subprime" credit card holder and also a realtor... boy, talk about no business acumen.

bottom feeder in philly said...

Yes, the real estate industry knows it is fucked. It's just in denial how bad it's truly going to be. Based on what lenders are telling me, guidelines are getting so tight that many of these adjusting ARM's in 08 will not have a refi program available. Interest rates will jump from around 5.5- 6.5% to 9 and 10%.I have a few friends this is happening to.Their Payments will jump by up to 30%. Long term rates will slowly rise if the rest of the world doesn't continue to buy our 10 year bonds(what fixed rates mortgages are linked to) and with a falling dollar foriegn investors are looking at buying real assets in this country(at huge discounts) instead of bonds. The government will be forced to raise the yields to attract money to fuel the governments 1 billion dollar a day deficit.This will cause rates to spike. If this happens be ready to watch prices take a huge nose dive as real estate becomes even more unafordable. Truth be told the true Real Estate professionals see the biggest opportunities in our nations history right around the corner. The time is coming when banks will short the debt on non performing loans by up to 60% or more of face value.(It's already a 40% short on 1st positions, and 2nd positions are willing to give up 70 to 80%).There are a few good Portfolio lenders I have referred a lot of business over the past few years. They are very conservative with their lending guidelines, and prided themselves of extremely low foreclosure rates. They are now calling me to see if I have interest in shorting a default, or want to cut a deal on an REO. I think it's too early in the game, and the knife has to far to fall to be a buyer quite yet. I'm also too busy selling $2500 ten year old Honda and Toyota 4 bangers to deal with the workload.Personally I'm not fucked thanks to income streams other than my realtwhore commisions.(I know it really pisses some people off to know I'm not crashing and burning) If that was my only income source I would be losing my home but I was smart enough to know better. I can't represent a buyer in good conscience unless the property is 75% of ARV - repair costs. I figure around Christmas 09 is a good time to be a buyer. It will be a great time to do subject to's, wraparound installment sales, and my favorite strategy will be the lease option toward the bottom of the curve. It will be easy to control property without a lot of cash. It will be real interesting to see how the banks deal with all the defaults. Will they short them pre sheriff sale for whatever they can get? Or will they sell off blocks of REO's for pennies on the dollar? However it happens I will be there to pick up as much trash as I can. I'll hold as cash flow rentals until the next stupid housing bubble occurs (2020-2025?) I'll sell at a premium to the next generation of greedy stupid sheeple and retire quite wealthy. If you look at a 100 year graph of real estate pricing it's not to hard to predict. Economies run in repeating cycles, and greedy people will always follow the easy money with a herd like mentality. I've done well in this last 10 year cycle, and learned a hell of a lot.I bought when everyone was selling(for good strong cashflows with no cash in) and sold when everyone was buying(good call devestment) I will learn more in the downturn,and profit from it. If people on here would spend more time on education, and less time bitching about the realtwhore,Bernake,Bush,Mortgage brokers etc. They may actually make some coin when the dust settles. I'll be buying when housing panic is gone and everyone on here wouldn't touch a piece of RE. I love this site Keith but I think it is time to let go of getting joy out of watching other people being fucked. Many people in the industry are decent people with families who are about to become foreclosure statistics due to loss of income. Just for the record I am a Real Estate Professional and I am far from fucked, although many of my coleagues are crashing and burning. I guess you all will get satisfaction in knowing that. I wish you all prosperity even Andrew Hoc. If we all didn't feed on others misfortunes this country might not be so fucked up. Any one in the Philly suburbs facing a real estate crisis feel free to leave a reply and I will try to help you the best I can. Many screwed homeowners are going to need a knowledgable real estate professional to guide them through the shit.
Bottom feeder in Philly

Anonymous said...

Frank who loves Scottsdale,

I've got to know: if you're so happy to be renting a place in SoCal, why are you wasting your weekends driving to open houses? You've stated many times that you're not buying a house any time soon, so why bother? I'm sure you could find something better to do with your time.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

rich in fl
where in fl are you? Orlando?

Anonymous said...

Every time I read a post by a so-call Realtor, I am reminded just how stupid and greedy most of America is. If you believe ANY of their bullshit and gross lies and opinions you truly deserve to be F#cked over.

Good Night, GOOD LUCK.

Anonymous said...

@bottom feeder in philly

Sorry but you lost me. Could you repeat that?

Anonymous said...

If people on here would spend more time on education, and less time bitching about the realtwhore,Bernake,Bush,Mortgage brokers etc.

Oh yeah, we need financial advice from a guy who's selling used Hondas worth $2,500 for a living.

Mr. sleazy car salesman doesn't know that many of us actually have degrees in BA, Finance, and Economics, and know how to calculate P/E and CAP RATES, instead of making "Flip That House" type calculation on the back of envelopes.

Good luck with your used car sales, Financial genius.

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

I've got to know: if you're so happy to be renting a place in SoCal, why are you wasting your weekends driving to open houses? You've stated many times that you're not buying a house any time soon, so why bother? I'm sure you could find something better to do with your time.

You'd have a lot of time on your hands too if you didn't have to work anymore.

Anonymous said...

Hey andrew hac, this stupid americano knows that this housing bubble is world wide, Spain, England, Austrailia, Hong Kong, even Latvia looks at our bubble and laughs, their market skyrocketed.
But what do I know, I'm just a stupid americano.

mhrist said...

Reading throe most of the comments, I am left with the distinct impression that nobody really knows how bad things are and are going to get.
We are starting to hear depression and Great Depression around more and more. I think a renaming will be in place sooner than you think. If the Great Depression is left with the same name, the new one must be called Astonishingly Humongous World-As-We-Know-It End Depression.

The guy with the garden in the back yard almost got it, I would suggest learning about chickens and goats and from where to get them with your last tank of gas before either A)A dictator has to assume control which usually means war and famine for a bit especially with the dumb Prada crowds in the world's financial strongholds or B)Breakdown of society and nations and reorganization of territory for self-sufficiency rather than a bunch of economic principles and forecasts that depend on variables that are collapsing every day, and with no end insight.

I've always wished for an apocalyptical scenrion and I am sure many of us will pull thru and there will be better times eventually, but with a government colapse (this is what happends when a gov becomes bankrupt) you are going to lose the police force. When those police go jobless, they turn to the next best thing they know, crime. The ones left become corrupt, and it is all down there for the justice system back to the fun times of the Great Depression with the mafia and all those guys. And like I said this is a best case scenario. If our oil/gas imports fail and they will because of a)dollar collapse means nobody imports stuff because we will be actually POOR. For most of you this might actually be a new word, check www.webster.com/poor b)decaying world economy. If oil supploes fall by 50%(due to lack of moolah for the shakes, gold being all gone see, with like 9 billion in gold reserves, hahaha) which is more than possible, guess where the inelasticity (some guy called Marshall explained it a decade ago when there were people with some brains as opposed to a bunch of shortsighted morons) will be, farming, electricity, and food/supplies distribution. So from which part of society will be more elastic, the you and me of today. In a few months we are probably be lining up at nationilized gas stations for a weekly alotment of a gallon or two a week per family.
It basically won't matter who you are, chances are your life will be very different, and it will be forever. Things don't ever go back the same before they screwed up. I guess we will be looked at just like the people with the Tower Of Babel, or Atlantis or Greece, and Rome in the end.
For the practical the new way of life will be shaped by some variables we will not know until the eventual collapse such as whether we can keep and by how much of the world's food and distribution infrastructures intact. Electricity will be a bummer because nuclear is the only viable option in a major resource availability screw up and if I remember correctly, we only make like 6% or so from nuclear with coal and natural gas for the rest... And again, I seem to remember some guy saying we don't have much coal. Don't know about natural gas. And maybe we have a lot of diesel fuel, I seem to remember the government hoarding diesel for distribution and actually being able to produce enough to satisfy most of the farming/distribution needs. Farm vehicles, and trucks use diesel fuel for the uninitiated. Regardless, it will be very hard to keep the country together, and if done it will need to be with an iron hand and fast and efficient. There won't be please to go with the last hundred years of high life.

Nimesh said...

Andrew Hac said...

Housing Bubble is created to fook the Average, White-Trash, Piece of Sh*t, Uneducated, Ignorant Americano. It was, is, will be perpetrated and planned by fat-ass Americano looking to screw another Americano. America is a land of shame with no morality but yet Americano is constantly preaching about ethical behavior, going to church, policing the freedom of the world. Freedom my ASS. Dubya Shrub + Penis Shooter just wanted to invade Iraq because of the petroleum. Well, guess what, Americano ? The fearful God is decreeing swift judgment for this greedy deed and all Americano will get it one way or another with extreme payback in blood.

Housing bubble = Americano

November 27, 2007 6:20 PM

Here he goes again this guy Andrew Hac making general statements about Americans. Why do you hate America so much Mr. Hac? Are you capable of making cogent arguments?

Anonymous said...

Some of you people are way too happy about the end of the world, reminds me of the early 90's, when some people I knew where talking about fighting the UN in the streets of LA, they were after all flying black unmarked blackhawks in the night, and were going to take over the US.
Are the majority of HP'ers this gullible?
Life goes on.
We have had many recessions in the past, and after this one is come and gone, there will be more in the future.
This one will probably be worse than most, because the fundamentals are so far off, but even if we go through a depression, life will go on.
My Grandfather survived it and he didnt dwell on it to much.
This excitement for the end of the world is some kind of sickness, just like david keresh, or those russians hiding in the cave waiting for the end, throghout history there have always been people like that.
I thought people who read this blog would be smarter than the average debt ridden person, but it seems some people here swing to far to the other side of the looney scale.
Financialy stupid fools will get wiped out, smarter folks who are smart with their money will be beter off.
I dont know who is worse the Realtwhores or the end of world nuts.
Stop whining and grow a pair already.

mhrist said...

Not that I am prophesying the end of the world, more of the imaginary lalala land that people have been enjoying the last few decades.
Extremely bad stuff has been happening all over the world since we started civilization. I doubt it will be destroyed but it can and does change dramatically and in cycles as history teaches us. Just as it has been for quite a while. Here in America we have been changing just like any monopoly and we are going exactly where most monopolies are, bankrupt. When the government cannot take care of you, it goes away just like a monopoly since it is only such while it can supply the things govs supply.
And another issue is that usually when across the world there was an economic problem the US and the other big players intervened to help thru the World Bank and IMF. Now, the big players are in the hole, who's going to bail us out? Martians?

mhrist said...

And guy above, check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

bottom feeder in philly said...

If people on here would spend more time on education, and less time bitching about the realtwhore,Bernake,Bush,Mortgage brokers etc.

Oh yeah, we need financial advice from a guy who's selling used Hondas worth $2,500 for a living.

Mr. sleazy car salesman doesn't know that many of us actually have degrees in BA, Finance, and Economics, and know how to calculate P/E and CAP RATES, instead of making "Flip That House" type calculation on the back of envelopes.

Good luck with your used car sales, Financial genius.

November 28, 2007 1:35 AM

Thanks for the luck it's going real well so far. Seems people are gravitating to cheap fuel efficient cars lately, as opposed to taking out huge loans. Their is always money to be made at the bottom of a marketplace, especially in a struggling economy. I can't wait till tax refund season starts.
I know all the formulas your talking about, and flip that house is a stupid show. I never flipped a house. My RE is all buy and hold rentals with great cash flows bought 6 to 10 years ago, right before the bubble. A large part of what I do as a realtor is on the commercial side, primarily working with small business owners and landlords, so not only do I understand the intricicies of cash flow analysis, I use them everyday. I have a contracting business, the rentals, the car lot and yes I did make a chunk of change as a realtwhore. I never did finish college so I don't have that fancy piece of paper you do. Cash flow analysis is not rocket science. I grab my balls and hang it out there living and dying by the sword. You are more than likely the slave to some paycheck and desk. Good for you. I would be happy to match net worth statements and see if that fancy education has done better for you than what I'm doing. Pony up, I'll show my numbers if you show yours..Enjoy rotting at that desk. I'm living the American dream you don't have the balls to pursue.
bottom feeder in phily