HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

November 09, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

Can you picture a world of $200 oil, $2000 gold and $2 US dollars to the Euro?

Ben Bernanke can.

69 comments:

Anonymous said...: $200 Oil will be cheap, listen to this: A couple of days ago I attended a lecture by Chris Luebkeman of Arup environmental engineering. (forward looking presentation on the future of mankind) he told us of a conversation he had with a top oil executive and he quoted: "we are running out of $100/barrel oil, but there is a lot of $300/barrel oil!" Folks, oil is going to triple, count on it. Bernanke=Corrupt; November 09, 2007 7:32 AM
Anonymous said...: I can picture a world of $200 oil where Bitter Renters will be forced by exorbitant rents to commute an hour to their jobs but they won't be able to afford to commute to their jobs.; November 09, 2007 7:46 AM
Frank R said...: Ben actually lends credibility to a lot of conspiracy theories that were formerly considered quack theory.; November 09, 2007 7:56 AM
Anonymous said...: I want out; November 09, 2007 9:13 AM
blogger said...: FYI gold and oil will see WILD price swings now. When they do, DOPES will rush in and mock us

And then they'll go right back up. Buy on the dips, or just stay out of the game or buy to hold.

I'm not sure if I see $1000 gold before I see $600 gold.

The daily trading is gonna be wild.

Any thoughts?

FYI I don't own GLD anymore. But I do own the miners.; November 09, 2007 9:39 AM
blogger said...: Hey what's the price of a gallon of gas in the US today?

We just crossed 1 pound for a litre for the first time ever here. 4.5 litres to a gallon, so 4.5 pounds a gallon, at $2.10 to the pound, that's

Oh dear god

That's $9.45 a gallon

I think I'll take the train; November 09, 2007 9:42 AM
blogger said...: Even the Wall Street Journal thinks Bernanke is a f*cking idiot

Dollar weakness is neutralizing the positive effects of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts. As the dollar spirals downward, weakened by Washington's indifference and market expectations of more rate cuts, liquidity drains from the U.S. into inflation hedges like gold and, in the case of entrepreneurship and risk-taking capital, to countries with strengthening currencies. This drain undercuts the growth impact of the Fed's recent rate cuts, complicating the recovery from the August credit-market turbulence. Question: What's harder to sell than a complex loan during a credit crunch? A dollar-denominated one.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119457528080387510.html?mod=googlenews_wsj; November 09, 2007 10:18 AM
Anonymous said...: Don't forget about this petition! Pass it on.

No BAILOUTS!

http://www.petitiononline.com/bailout/petition.html; November 09, 2007 10:50 AM
Anonymous said...: I was joking with my brother who does construction in Northern California ( and he is super busy no slowdown in his area) I asked what he is paying in gas and he said I didn't even look, it doesn't matter. I need it and I can easily afford it. Gas and oil will keep going up and yes we will keeep paying for it till its all gone. Just look around huge trucks and suvs everywhere people are not worried by the up coming prices and people have to drive.; November 09, 2007 12:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Gas in Upstate NY is 3.25/Gal; November 09, 2007 12:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Thank you very much Emperor Bennie. The Fed is just F'ed up. What's with this Soviet-style central banking crap?

Mr. Bush, please support Dr. Ron Paul's bill to abolish the F'ed! Give the American people at least this one Constitutional token.

Else you are...

Bush II The Clueless
Bush II The Coward
Bush II The Spineless
Bush II The Yes-Man
Bush II The Deer in Headlights

...

Any others? I'm sure a lot of HPer's could think of better ones than these...; November 09, 2007 12:24 PM
Anonymous said...: jerkoffs.

THIS IS ON PURPOSE.

AMERO.

call your congressman and senator and yell at them.

educate them.

tell them.

rat out the triators.

get an investigation going.

get them bastards indicted !!!

AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMEROAMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO AMERO; November 09, 2007 12:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

I think Gold (and GLD) is gonna go up. Speculation is breking into non finance jobs. I believe we will see a Gold bubble. Agree. It may get volitile. But I think short term it will rise. Note I'm still in GLD (and DBS).

I also am in CDE, Oil Service firms...

Here's one for the board... I've been doing well in MO - because as the PANIC gets worse - people will start smoking again. I'm up a good bit there and have a stop limit to lock in gains.

Cheers.; November 09, 2007 12:48 PM
Anonymous said...: I don't think we will see oil go a lot higher at least long term. It will hit a point where we will create technology to strech each gallon further.
It will end up being a good thing as it will increase the speed at which better hybrids and diesels will become mainstream. I have been reading recently about the use of carbon fiber in tractor trailers. A box trailer made of carbon fiber weighs 14000lbs less than one of steel. Meaning less trucks needed to haul freight and getting better mileage while doing it. We will survive it will just hurt while we evolve.

sequoia; November 09, 2007 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: I am starting to believe that the economy and the housing market are going to crash more than even HP initially thought it would.

How does it feel, HP, to maybe actually have understated and underestimated how bad this was going to go?

From what I've been reading lately, we are talking about all this going down in a fireball of destruction.

The post-apocolyptic future everyone so lovingly wanted, ala Terminator and the like, may truly be upon us.

The future of "in your face" attitudes toward our fellow man, disease, extreme corruption and extreme disparity of wealth, ignorance, worship of celebrity, ultra-violence and the ability to connect to anyone and do what you will,(internet)are now at hand.

To think we thought "this" philosophy of how to live was "cool." Careful what you wish for. Hell, terrorism isn't even a real worry for me compared to so many other ills.

Welcome to this new future's face.; November 09, 2007 1:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Euros are the next bubble. Yes - the US has problems but compared to many countries in the EU - our books look great. Hopefully, the Fed is done cutting (as per comments in the last Fed meeting); November 09, 2007 1:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey Keith,

Sorry to correct you but it's 3.78 liters to the gallon, not 4.5. So that saves you a buck and change on gas. See, not that bad. Gas has been $8 a gallon in the UK for a while now.

-Big Cheese; November 09, 2007 2:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonypussy 12:03 said . . .

"Just look around huge trucks and suvs everywhere people are not worried by the up coming prices and people have to drive."
-----------------------------

That is true. But not so long ago subprime borrowers weren't worried about the price of their houses either.

Eventually, high gas prices will catch up with the sheeple and eat into their budgets, and they will have to worry about it.

Just because people aren't worried yet does not mean there isn't a problem afoot. The sheeple are not known for their foresight or their ability to discern cause and effect relationships.; November 09, 2007 2:45 PM
Anonymous said...: "Just look around huge trucks and suvs everywhere people are not worried by the up coming prices and people have to drive."

yep...but the more people spend on gas the less they spend on crap.

i.e. recession.

grats...you've figured out how it all works.; November 09, 2007 2:46 PM
Anonymous said...: Gas is running $3/gal in the DC metro area today. $2.85 in the exurbs and over $3 at some stations in close.

If gold swings back to $600, I'm in with both feet. But I'm guessing it will hit $1,000 first.

If $100 oil = $3/gal gas, then $300 oil = $9/gal. So at $300 oil, the US will be paying about what they do in the UK now on a currency adjusted basis. COOL!

I just read that even cocaine is up 50%+ in major US cities. Inflation is under control my @ss.; November 09, 2007 2:48 PM
Anonymous said...: > Can you picture a world of $200 oil, $2000 gold and $2 US dollars to the Euro?
> Ben Bernanke can.

Me, too.

The big question will be, however, if US wages keep pace with prices.

Gas price in the UK: They have much more taxes on top of it (like nearly every country in the industrial world).; November 09, 2007 2:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 12:03 pm said
Just look around huge trucks and suvs everywhere people are not worried by the up coming prices and people have to drive.
-----------------------------

Agreed. I live in the Los Angeles and thats ALL you see over here. Everyone you see, as far as the eye can see, people here everywhere have to drive their TANKS! Its unbelievable!
And what's most surprising, is that for a lot of the TANKS that you see people driving, like the RAM truck, the Ford F-150, with the gigantic tires that put them 10 feet off the ground, when you look at the flatbed part of the truck, its EMPTY! Unbelievable! Why are so many of these people driving these tanks and there's NOTHING in them! And with the price of gasoline as it is, what is going on here?

My guess: Its a power thing. Whoever has the biggest baddest Truck, SUV, Escalade, IS the Biggest, Baddest Mother-Fu%#er of all!
So my response: Ya, I cant wait till gas prices go up to 5 dollars a gallon. Serves you right for driving a worthless piece of crap that you dont even use for its intended purpose!; November 09, 2007 2:54 PM
Anonymous said...: I agree that $2 per Euro is pretty much in the bag. Heck, the dollar has already fallen by 75% versus the Euro, and a $2 Euro only means a fall of another 36%. I'd say it pretty much a given at this point.

I think $2 per Euro is about as far as it will go though. And that's not the real problem. Some economists predict the dollar will fall by a factor of 2-3 versus some Asian currencies over the next 10 years. Remember Asia? That's where we get all our cheap crap from. It won't be so cheap anymore and inflation will be much higher as a result. Not necessarily a bad thing...maybe we'll start making things again.

I differ on the concerns people have about oil and gold though. Renewable energy to large scale is right around the corner. The US could produce enough bio-fuel via algae in a 60 square mile in the middle of the desert (Nevada) to stop importing oil. At 100 square miles, we replace all of our transportation fuels in total.

This is for real. AHEM....will be for real when we get this Texas oil idiot out of office and start really focusing on our energy problems.

My prediction. In 10 years, oil will be less than $40 a barrel and will trade at discount to biofuels because of the carbon tax. Once the US starts producing biofuels, you can bet we'll wake up and lead the charge on worldwide carbon tax trading because it will be in our best interest.

My other prediction, should the US be stupid enough to vote Rudy Guliani in.....WORLD WAR III and yes $300 oil. Could go either way at this point to be honest. Hopefully the sheeple wake up!!; November 09, 2007 3:39 PM
Mammoth said...: Plumbing new depths of absurdity. In yesterday’s Seattle Times was the following advertisement from a rug shop:

Public Notice
Persian Rug Sanction Coming Soon
Act Before Its Too Late
---------------------------
…they ain’t importing no more persian rugs, so buy now!

Ha Ha Ha LMAO; November 09, 2007 3:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Golds historic pattern is to peak and fall twice during a rally. The second peak is severe followed by a 40% drop. Real estate followed the same pattern. First we had solid appreciation followed by a small dip and then the peak/ drop. According to historic physical trends for gold we are in the seasonal final peak which will be followed by a massive fall and then several dead cat bounces and recession. December and January are the months historically when the metals peak and fall. Look at the long term charts.

I bet we get recession before your prices.; November 09, 2007 3:40 PM
Mammoth said...: Keith said..."I'm not sure if I see $1000 gold before I see $600 gold."

- I bought some gold recently. Which probably means its headed down toward $600 soon...
--------------
"Hey what's the price of a gallon of gas in the US today?"

- $3.25/gal here in western Washington, and that's for the cheap stuff.

-Mammoth; November 09, 2007 3:44 PM
Anonymous said...: It's 3.8 litres to the USG. 4.5 is for imperial.; November 09, 2007 4:04 PM
Anonymous said...: "FYI gold and oil will see WILD price swings now. When they do, DOPES will rush in and mock us"

True. The dollar-yen carry trade is currently unvinding. Those who borrowed yen to buy dollar denominated assets are in a bind.
I expect a big selloff in oil, gold and stocks as all these traders need to raise cash to repay their yen loans.
Don't expect $100 oil or $900 gold until next year.; November 09, 2007 4:14 PM
Anonymous said...: "FYI gold and oil will see WILD price swings now."

I'm with you. If the past serves as any guide, the gold and oil ride will be VOLATILE.

Definitely, not for the faint of heart. A few traders will keel over when this wild bull is finally tamed...; November 09, 2007 4:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Here's what I see; if gold does hit 2k and all you guys that were so smart to buy at $600 sell, you've made over 3 times your money in your let's say [I doubt this though] 50k investment in gold.

So now you've got 150k instead of 50k, so what? It's not going to save your life, it's barely going to make a difference.

Now you're a cash guy makeing 5% like the rest of us cash guys. 150k pays a lousy $7500 annually.

Except for bragging what have you got? The income from a part time job, and a lot of bragging rights.

3 times your investment is not bragging rights. Unless you have millions to invest, your paltry funds will do little for you.

If you buy gold now, you doubled your money. IF gold hits 2k.

I say; SO?; November 09, 2007 4:31 PM
Anonymous said...: we are running out of $100/barrel oil, but there is a lot of $300/barrel oil!

This will only be true if the US dollar HOLDS it's value. This means that if today the excahnge is $1.50 US / $1 Euro, then it has to stay that way.

If the US dollar keeps dropping to... say... $3 US / $1 Euro (ie half it's value), then you will be paying double for oil - $600 US a barrel.

No one is stupid - if the Arabs, Canadians, or Venezuelans see that the US dollar keeps falling in value - they'll charge more US dollars per barrel (as any sane person would do.)

If the peak-oil theory is a myth, then the price of oil could stay at $100 a barrel - but if the dollar falls to half it's value, you'll still be paying $200 a barrel.

If peak-oil is a reality however - things can only get worse from there.

Simple math folks.; November 09, 2007 4:42 PM
az_mtb said...: You are a little bit off on your liters-to-gallons conversion there Keith. It's actually 3.785-ish liters per gallon, not 4.5. Not that it makes a huge difference in prices, but it does make it about $8/gallon instead of $9.45.

Still pretty damn expensive! There would be blood running in the streets if we ever hit those prices in the US.; November 09, 2007 4:52 PM
Anonymous said...: People are not worried about the upcoming prices???

What Bullox.

Regardless of your wealth, you always care about pricing.

Will you and your brother
be coming back to visit plant Earth any time soon?

Anonymous said...
I was joking with my brother who does construction in Northern California ( and he is super busy no slowdown in his area) I asked what he is paying in gas and he said I didn't even look, it doesn't matter. I need it and I can easily afford it. Gas and oil will keep going up and yes we will keeep paying for it till its all gone. Just look around huge trucks and suvs everywhere people are not worried by the up coming prices and people have to drive.; November 09, 2007 5:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Gas and oil will keep going up and yes we will keeep paying for it till its all gone.

That works up to a point.

God forbid... but if the price of oil goes up to $600 a barrel, that means you'll be paying at least $20 bucks a gallon.

And if you're spending $50 bucks a day on gas today, when the shock hits you'll be paying $300 a day.

If you're making $400 per day, that gives you $100 take home pay.

At the same time, if you're paying $300 a month for heating oil in the winter - (say $10 a day) - with the oil shock, that will jump to $60 a day. Which leaves you with $40 bucks to spend on all your other stuff... oh and don't forget to pay taxes.

I have seen this same myopic view before.

Alot of people thought their factory jobs in GM and Ford were safe. No one got laid off in over 30 years - whole generations went through thinking they were secure in their paychecks and rarely saved.

Then the first oil shock hit and Japanese started flooding the market with more fuel efficient cars.

End result - alot of former car manufacturing employees went hungry and had to live like dogs till the economy turned around.

The turn around this time however might take alot longer...

Oh well, I guess you're brother will learn what it means when you don't pay attention to the semi barreling at full speed down the highway right at you.; November 09, 2007 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Yes I certainly can.

I think it is a very realistic possibility.; November 09, 2007 5:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Oh Keefer, are you watching anything other then Al-Jazeera lately?

Not sure were to begin since i did not check in to HP lately.

I think you're loosing it.

lets take one thing at a time.

Can you please explain what give the Euro value.
what is behind it
is it backed by gold or oil
is there no inflation in Europe
is there no European Central Bank
is the ECB not pumping money in the system

Given your insight into the housing market fundamentals,
how don't you see the insane Euro bubble

Walk into any shop in Europe and its obvious that inflation is out of hand and has been consistently going up since the introduction of the Euro.
not to mention cost of energy as you wrote about.

Man, I am so positive on the US dollar.. now more than ever.
The more i hear the arguments about why the dollar is falling in compare to other paper currencies
the more I'm convinced that it is an emotional argument and disconnected from basic economical fundamentals.

What's so interesting about this conversation, is that swings in currency values are not like housing
it does not take years for the ups and downs to be felt locally on the street.
The Greenbacks ascend back to historic level is around the corner.

No matter how the Housing and related credit bust materializes in the future.
the US Dollar will be kicking butt before end of this year guaranteed.; November 09, 2007 5:27 PM
Anonymous said...: i stopped going anywhere with my car but to the grocery store once a week after gas went above 1.50 a gallon, but at least I have the fond memories of roaring across continents at will.......and ease at a buck a gallon.....and there are larger continents; November 09, 2007 5:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith:

One minor correction:
1 gallon = 3.78 liters.; November 09, 2007 5:32 PM
Anonymous said...: sorry but at 1.50 cents a gallon and 20 miles to a gallon..no one or nothing was worth the spending to get to....old cruel mizer.....; November 09, 2007 5:33 PM
Anonymous said...: Did anyone notice exports hit record levels with the dollar being so low?; November 09, 2007 5:40 PM
blogger said...: Thanks everyone for the 3.78 thing. You can tell I haven't driven a car (or bought gas) in two years

But damn that's still expensive! Enjoy the $3 gas while you still have it America. You'll see $5 a gallon in the next few months as the oil spike works its way through to refined gasoline. Labor day 2008 will be a bitch - and watch for the Presidential candidates to talk about gouging and how the oil companies are evil; November 09, 2007 5:45 PM
RiperDurian said...: Ben looks so cute,

like a man made of dough,

pliable dough shaped by his masters,

I want to hug Ben,

around the neck,

with a noose.; November 09, 2007 5:52 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: Gas @ Costco was $3.25 a gal in San Leandro on Wed.

A friend said it was the same price in Fairfield at Arco.; November 09, 2007 6:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonypussy 5:27 whined . . .

"Man, I am so positive on the US dollar.. now more than ever."
-------------------------

Do you have any reason for being positive on the USD other than your vague assertion that the pressures keeping it down are "emotional?" Can you give any specifics?; November 09, 2007 6:29 PM
Anonymous said...: I think anything could happen at this point. However, I really don't see why people are so high on the Euro. The dollar has already been beaten down so much--I just don't see why the Euro will do so much better. They're going to have a lot of the same problems over in Europe that we have here.; November 09, 2007 6:57 PM
Anonymous said...: We will never, never stop using oil, I don't care how much it costs. Its a must for this world. We'll stop when it runs out or can't take it with our military or some elses military takes it from us. But if you think cost will stop oil from being used you are wrong.; November 09, 2007 7:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Will you and your brother
be coming back to visit plant Earth any time soon?

You are the one in another world, Americans use oil and they have to. How else does work get done.(transportation, farming, plastics, labor saving tools all use oil) look at prices over the last ten years oh yeah oil prices have really hurt the US or the world. Its cheap for the amont of work you get out of a gallon of oil.; November 09, 2007 7:14 PM
Anonymous said...: >> No matter how the Housing and related credit bust materializes in the future. The US Dollar will be kicking butt before end of this year guaranteed.

Is that you, Stupid?; November 09, 2007 7:27 PM
Anonymous said...: In Portland, OR, regular is running $3.10. And that's with someone pumping it for you, as we don't have self-serve.; November 09, 2007 7:29 PM
AndrewHac said...: Quote:
"""""
If $100 oil = $3/gal gas, then $300 oil = $9/gal. So at $300 oil, the US will be paying about what they do in the UK now on a currency adjusted basis. COOL!
"""""

And guess what happens at that point ? AMERICANO is toast as a snapper turtle on a charcoal grill. Pop...Pop...Puup...Zeeeeh...

Americano = Toasted Snapper Turtle

Heeeee, heeeee, heeeee.....

That is so funny I can not control myself.; November 09, 2007 7:30 PM
Anonymous said...: tangelo mozilo said...
'Do you have any reason for being positive on the USD other than your vague assertion that the pressures keeping it down are "emotional?" Can you give any specifics?'

I asked first:
what advantage does the Euro have over the Dollar (same goes with any other paper currency)?
When you understand that the currencies the Dollar is being measured against have much greater weakness in their fundamentals
it will be clear, that the Greenback is by far the most stable.

Euro Zone external trade deficit is at historic highs, and inflation is out of control.
I'm betting on the Dollar!; November 09, 2007 8:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Last week, I found more news connecting celebrities with the dollar. A famous supermodel – Gisele Bundchen – refused payment for a modeling contract in U.S. dollars. She demanded payment in euros.
Here's a good rule of thumb about investing: When people who know nothing about an investment start buying it, that's a good time to start selling it. The reason is simple. The unknowledgeable ones are always the last people to buy. Once the amateurs are in, there is no one left to buy. The market can't go any higher.
It's why the technology bubble burst in March 2000, one week after my mother invested her retirement savings in a technology fund. Or why gold dropped through the floor moments after the State of Alaska Retirement System bought two tons of gold bullion in 1980.
Or why the Housing market is now crashing.

so when all sheeple morons were buying Mc Mansions i knew there was somthing wrong.
Now all the Sheeple, the psudo sheeple, the McSheeple and the RealEstate only goes up crowed is running to the Euro,
its time to say WTF.; November 09, 2007 9:02 PM
Anonymous said...: keith... it is all relative... anyone remember cold war propaganda? you are meking yourself sound more and more ... shall we say senile (showing a decline or deterioration of physical strength or mental functioning, esp. short-term memory and alertness, as a result of old age or DISEASE; November 09, 2007 10:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Small town broker says.

The euro is not trying to finance WAR on a visa card.

Unless the Fed begins to raise rates the weak dollar trend continues.

Do you think they will raise rates in the ramp up to the election?

I don't.; November 09, 2007 10:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith - - you are a moron for just own mining and not the physical. You keep preaching buy and hold and then you sell sometime later. In "wild" times, you should own physical; mining stocks are subject to much "wilder" swings. Why don't you just keep the bloggers posting and stay out of giving ANY advice on gold.; November 09, 2007 10:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Of course I can, we are almost there. For the dollar exchange rate, I expect it to happen soon.

And of course, in response to some, there is a Euro bubble. There is a Central Bank, there is a policy that 2% inflation is good for the economy etc. How could there not be a debasement of the currency? But before the Euro goes down, the dollar will be history.

Many of European problems were caused by our stupid americanized elites, who made us repeat all the US-stupidities: share-holder value, creative financing, overrating of financial services, mark to model accounting rules, unlimited greed, unlimited CEO salaries, "what is good for business is good for people", privatization of public services... you name it. Sarkozy is just the last example and probably the worst. What a joke to see him line up with the worst president ever.

It is not that I hate America, but I hope it goes down fast, so European sheeple will realize they got lied to by their elites about globalisation etc. and will send them to hell, before Europe goes down as well.; November 09, 2007 11:26 PM
Anonymous said...: I don't think we will see oil go a lot higher at least long term. It will hit a point where we will create technology to strech each gallon further.

People seem to forget or are oblivious to the fact that the average American consumes 25 barrels of oil per year.

China, the fastest growing economy in the world, with the largest population, consumes right now only 1 barrel of oil per person, per year.

Now, add India to that equation, also with one of the largest populations in the world, and growing fast.

Don't forget that we use oil in EVERYTHING: fertilizer to feed the world, paint, plastics, even the boxes that package food at your local supermarket contain oil derivate.

Got it? Is that clear enough for you?; November 09, 2007 11:43 PM
Anonymous said...: The difference is that Europe has excellent public transportation. So they can handle expensive gas prices because there's a better alternative. Here, we don't.

If you've lived in Europe, you know what I'm talking about. In Paris, for instance, there's a subway entrance in almost every block, and it's dirt cheap. Also, there's a nice network of fast trains all over Europe. Here, we don't.

Good luck with oil at $300!; November 09, 2007 11:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Did anyone notice exports hit record levels with the dollar being so low?

I take "sheeple who still believe in economic indicators that come straight from the White House fax machine" for a thousand, Alex.; November 10, 2007 12:02 AM
Out at the peak said...: To keep a tab on US gas prices, use http://www.gasbuddy.com/

In Sonoma County, CA, it was $3.25/gallon at Costco and $3.39/gallon at Chevron.; November 10, 2007 12:28 AM
blogger said...: "Keith - - you are a moron for just own mining and not the physical. You keep preaching buy and hold and then you sell sometime later"

Had to address this one. I don't think I've ever said the words "buy and hold" ever on this blog. And I like the miners right now more than GLD because I know that gold prices will now become wild (get ready for $100 swings), and I like steady and tame better than wild. I think you'll see miners getting bought too.

Also FYI GLD is tax-unfriendly (can't get long term cap gain) even if you hold you'll always pay the highest tax rate, and it doesn't pay dividends. I may hold my miners, get the dividends and pay 15% tax after a year.

GLD is a good short-term trade and currency hedge I think, if you have the stomach for the ride. It's made me good money for sure. But I see gold falling from this level, not rising (short term). Look at the chart. I even have it on my short radar. It's moved to high too fast, so watch for an adjustment, good time to buy more or get in. I might buy again after it falls, but not at these levels.

If you buy to hold, the physical stuff is where you want to go. Check out bullionvault; November 10, 2007 1:23 AM
Anonymous said...: PetroBrasil just found 8bbls of oil of the coast of Brazil. The oil is under 1 1/2 miles of ocean and another 2 miles of sand and rocksalt formations. The oil is still here but it will be very hard to drill. As oil reaches $200, it will be more profitable; November 10, 2007 1:31 AM
Anonymous said...: My guess: Its a power thing. Whoever has the biggest baddest Truck, SUV, Escalade, IS the Biggest, Baddest Mother-Fu%#er of all!
So my response: Ya, I cant wait till gas prices go up to 5 dollars a gallon. Serves you right for driving a worthless piece of crap that you dont even use for its intended purpose!
=============================

As a business owner, I use my 2007 Ford F350 SUPER DUTY to haul large heavy loads of steel and other supplies.

One day a few weeks ago... after dropping off a load, I pulled into the bank drive-thru to make a deposit. The teller, a nice looking blond in her 20's was admiring my Truck and flirted a little with me over the intercom.

Last thursday, I stopped by the same bank to make another deposit; but this time I was driving my 2008 HONDA CIVIC HYB NAV. Its getting arround 42 mpg overall.

The young teller reconized me and seemed shocked. She asked me why I traded in my Big truck for that wimpy car. I just shook my head at her and said, "No, you don't understand. I own two trucks that I use for business, this car, and a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. I use each for a different purpose."

----

I expect that one day it will cost $1000 to fill the tank on the F350. At 10 to 12 mpg, you can bet that the truck will only be used when necessary!!!!

THANK GOD, I own a Hybird. I expect as gas soars past $4/gal there will be waiting lists for these vechiles and it may take years to actually get one.; November 10, 2007 2:11 AM
Anonymous said...: turdly said...
Here's what I see; if gold does hit 2k and all you guys that were so smart to buy at $600 sell, you've made over 3 times your money in your let's say [I doubt this though] 50k investment in gold.

So now you've got 150k instead of 50k, so what? It's not going to save your life, it's barely going to make a difference.

Now you're a cash guy makeing 5% like the rest of us cash guys. 150k pays a lousy $7500 annually.

Except for bragging what have you got? The income from a part time job, and a lot of bragging rights.

3 times your investment is not bragging rights. Unless you have millions to invest, your paltry funds will do little for you.

If you buy gold now, you doubled your money. IF gold hits 2k.

I say; SO?

November 09, 2007 4:31 PM

This seems about right, he's got a point, you're gonna be a cash guy one day like it or not, and that gold will convert to cash equivilent when you cash it in, like it or not.

So...you're all cash guys eventually....; November 10, 2007 4:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Keith, 3.78 liters per gallon.; November 10, 2007 6:01 AM
Anonymous said...: NO BIDDERS AT A PUBLIC PUBLIC LAND AUCTION IN PHOENIX LAST WEEK.. i GUESS THE MONEY TO PAY 10 TIMES A PROPERTYS VALUE WHILE USING SHAREHOLDERS MONEYS IN ORDER TO GET THE COMMISSIONS AND KICKBACKS WERE NOT AVAILABLE, OR SO TO SPEAK GET THE PROPERTYS FOR YOURSELF AND SCREW THE SHAREHOLDERS SCHEMES AND BOGUS APPRAISALS...MEANWHILE,,, THE TOTAL LOSES FROM SUBPRIME LENDINGS OVER THE LAST 40 YEARS DOES NOT EQUAL ONE YEAR OF BONUSES AT GOLDMAN SACHS..PAULSONS OLD COMPANY.. LOOTING THE u.s TREASURY..BONUSES FOR CAUSING THE PROBLEMS THAT, DESTROYED THE ECONOMY, WHICH DESTROY THE ECONOMY AND CAUSED THEIR FIRINGS...AMAZING.........POLITICS.....; November 10, 2007 6:49 AM
Anonymous said...: Gisele Bundchen – refused payment for a modeling contract in U.S. dollars. She demanded payment in euros.

Now all the Sheeple, the psudo sheeple, the McSheeple and the RealEstate only goes up crowed is running to the Euro,
its time to say WTF.

Gisele is the richest model in the world, earning $33 million last year alone, with an estimated fortune over $100 million. Just with her sandals line alone, she earns about $20 million / year, plus her development company in Brazil which is building high end apartment buildings all over South America. Sure buddy, she's so naive and "should follow your advice", or the pathetic Cramer.; November 10, 2007 9:06 AM
Anonymous said...: one day it will cost $1000 to fill the tank on the F350. At 10 to 12 mpg, you can bet that the truck will only be used when necessary!!!!

THANK GOD, I own a Hybird. I expect as gas soars past $4/gal there will be waiting lists for these vechiles and it may take years to actually get one
-----------------------------

Hello, I read your post. I dont have a problem with people who drive big trucks and USE them for their job or transporting things. My beef is with the countless MONSTER trucks you see out their who have NOTHING on the flatbed part. They purposely buy giant tires and intimidate other people on the road with their aggressive driving. These are the people who deserve to pay through the nose for gasoline.; November 10, 2007 6:37 PM
Anonymous said...: We just crossed 1 pound for a litre for the first time ever here. 4.5 litres to a gallon, so 4.5 pounds a gallon, at $2.10 to the pound, that's

Oh dear god

That's $9.45 a gallon

for a uk gallon, but not everything is bigger in america. indeed a gallon is smaller. a gallon in the us is only 3.785 litres. so an american gallon costs "only" $7.95; November 10, 2007 11:26 PM

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November 09, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

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