What exactly is it that makes you think US home sales and prices will rebound next year?
* The record and swelling inventory?
* The worldwide crashing debt markets?
* The millions of REIC losing their jobs?
* The fact that renting is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than "owning"?
* The massive fraud-related demand and prices that will NEVER come back?
* The congressional investigations?
* The disappearance of no-down, no-doc mortgages?
* The looming recession?
* The blowup over at Fannie and Freddie?
* The hundreds of mortgage companies that have failed?
* The tightened lending requirements?
* The complete loss of confidence amongst potential buyers?
* The sea of foreclosures?
* The massive wave of ARM resets
* The destruction of collateralized debt, CDOs and SIVs?
* The loss of buying power of the US dollar?
* The plunging consumer confidence index?
I could go on. But Mr. Yun, please illuminate us. You're the Senior Economist after all, and obviously we have no idea what we're talking about here, since we're just silly little bloggers having fun.
You must know something we don't know Lawrence. Your detailed and sophisticated NAR financial models must be seeing something we can't see. You must think Manias, Panics and Crashes is just a bunch of hooey. Your studies of past manias and crashes must show that there's no relevance today. And you must have 21 great reasons too (the year round golf, right?).
So do tell. Please share with us your detailed financial modeling and statistical evidence that has led you as an economist to your conclusions. The floor is yours.
The market for existing homes is "hitting the low right now" and heading for a "modest recovery" next year, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said at the group's annual convention here Tuesday.
NAR expects the national median price of existing homes to decline 1.7 percent to $218,200 for this year and hold steady in 2008.
Yun said housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes. "The pent-up demand is there," he said.
November 29, 2007