November 04, 2007

Deutsche Bank expects fuc*ed brokerages to announce ANOTHER $10 billion mortgage mess markdown. Meanwhile Citi is expected to take $11 billion itself

$10 billion here, $10 billion there, and soon you're talking about real money. Just like ENRON.

Too bad Deutsche and others haven't figured out the REAL ugly truth yet. That the mark-to-market markdown will be in the HUNDREDS of billions if not trillions by the time its done, with bank failures everywhere. Get ready everyone.

Even the super-SIV that was supposed to help hide the truth is blowing up as people come to realize it was a big scam.
Well, then again maybe they all know, and they just don't want to admit it yet. After all, they still have some shares to dump ya know.

Meanwhile, Citi axed its CEO tonight and will be shocking the market with another massive markdown. But no surprises for HP'ers. We knew all along.

LONDON -- Banks are likely to mark down another $10 billion of mortgage assets in the fourth quarter, according to one analyst's estimates.

Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Mayo said in a note Thursday that banks and brokerages are likely to see their earnings pressured through the rest of 2007.

Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Citibank Inc. are expected to be hit the hardest. Mayo estimated each bank would write down $4 billion in the fourth quarter.

He said Bear Stearns Cos. Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp. are also likely to take markdowns.


Anonymous said...


Are you implying there's corruption afoot?


Anonymous said...

Why all the markdowns if there was no housing bubble?

Anonymous said...

Where were the auditors (again)?

Mark in San Diego said...

Even Big Ben Bernake said, "nobody knows what these things are worth" about CDO's, etc. WE know what these things are worth - ZIP! We know what Phoenix houses are worth - ZIP!. . .After visiting Phoenix, I would have to say that even if people lowered their prices to 100K (from 300K) many houses would not sell. . .there are 60K houses, and not enough investors to buy all of them. . .this will take a long long time to work out.

Mark in San Diego said...

Rents in Phoenix Area lower now than Canton, Ohio and Cleveland!!

Take a look at craigslist for Phoenix . . .here is a two bedroom condo reduced to $695 a month!!

Set the Maximum rent at $900 for a two bedroom plus and see what you get. . .at this rate, San Diego and LA should sent their homeless there!

Anonymous said...

Thank God there's no inflation though.

Anonymous said...

Didn't Mike Norman and Ben Stein say buy the financials?

Anonymous said...

Freeze the system. Otherwise you'll get an uncontrolled collapse.

Anonymous said...

Keith, and HPers, let's consider where we've come from.

In late 2005, we were the flying monkeys and bitter renters arguing as the MSM lapped up the lies of David "Why the Housing Boom Will Not Go Bust" Lereah.

We were considered like 9/11 conspiracy theorists, or --- "sum kinda anti-American librul" --- for daring to say what is obvious.

We saw the Real Estate Financio-Industrial complex continue to make its easy dirty money and rub it in our nose. "If you're so right, why aren't you rich like us? nyah nyah nyah. Real estate is always a good long term investment"

Remember the Mortgage Banker bling videos on pre-Googleized YouTube?

Now, we've toppled the fu@king CEOs of Citibank and Merrill Lynch, and even the US Treasury Secretary is scared of the HousingPANIC.

Who's next? When the unemployment starts to crack, the credit carders will start to spiral down. I'm short AXP and COF. Oh, and also Mohawk (carpet maker).

I'd short anybody but Goldman. They run the system and make the rules. Somehow they will be able to slither away or front-run everybody else's demise.

so.....what panic is next?

and the doomsayers about Peak Oil and global warming.....

They're right.

They ain't about just laws of economics, they're laws of *physics*.

Compared to human hubris, the laws of physics are 100% undefeated.

Global warming is not going according to model. Recent data show that it is *worse* than previous *worse case scenearios*.

The level of emissions is even higher than previously imagined (for "business as usual and no cuts at all" scenario), and the nonlinear feedforwards (which enhance human forcing)--- arctic ice albedo and southern ocean stopping to absorb CO2 --- are starting up faster and stronger than ever imagined.

Oh yeah. Oil is gonna hit $100 this month, WITHOUT any war at all.

Ghawar is dying, the Saudis and the GOP are lying.

And no, peak oil won't help climate---people already substitute coal, which has almost twice as many carbons per BTU.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

"Just mark it to make believe".

Anonymous said...

Why isn't wells Fargo mentioned in banks to markdown? They were in the top ten list of mortgage (subprime) lenders. I remember them offering a 3pt rebate to brokers on some of these toxic loans. Wonder how they're doing these days?

cobra2411 said...

ohhh! Buy the dips!

Anonymous said...

Don't u forget about B of A!

Anonymous said...

Crapola! I sold my SKF double-short financials ETF on Thursday. I figured that banks were going to drag everything out until at least next quarter, and I didn't want to bet against the system for that long. Anyway I made some easy (imaginary) money.

Anonymous said...

Let it go Republican sheeple, the socializing of finance that your GOP loves so much. The Republican bankers gamble, lose, and then come running to get taxpayer money to cover the hole. Meanwhile, Bush is vetoing health insurance to children. The GOP can take trillions from taxpayer money to bail the Republican conmen in Wall Street, but give health insurance to kids, noooooo, thats "socialism". Wake up you Republican bastards, or leave this country for good, we dont want you here.

Anonymous said...

Hey ICE and politicians, we need more people like that immigrating in the US. Settlement from "car insurance accident", yeah, right. BTW, how's your car insurance rate going, honest taxpayers? I know that an American citizenship is worth sh!t right now, but this is becoming ridiculous. We already have enough crooks on Wall Street:

(AP)Brooklyn housekeeper Rita Dobrer was swept up in South Florida's real estate frenzy, using $600,000 from a jury award as deposits on six condominiums in two Miami projects in 2005.

Dobrer said she never had the intention, let alone the financial ability, to buy the six condos -- which cost about $3 million. Rather, she claimed she was enticed by the developer's verbal guarantees that she could reap $600,000 in profits by selling the units without ever taking ownership.

Dobrer said Related wouldn't allow her to buy four units in her name at Harbour House for that very reason. So Dobrer said she, her two daughters, and sister each bought units with the proceeds from her court winnings from a car accident. Dobrer bought two units in 50 Biscayne.

So you sheeple keep running that hamster wheel harder because you will have to pay for all the million scam artists that arrive here every year or work on Wall Street. And don't forget, Blackwater and Halliburton make a lot of money with wars, so work harder to pay for more phony wars coming up in which trillions from taxpayers are transferred into the pockets of Bush's & Cheney cronies. Vote for Giuliani now, bunch of geniuses.

just another day of doom said...

Another $10 Billion?

What's that?

That's the cost for being in the GOP's Iraq clusterf*ck war for just 10-days!

Total war failure tab to taxpayer's to date:

$2.4 Trillion and climbing.

Bush's dry-drunk blunder is nothing compared to the BUSH'S WAR CAUSED (housing scam) banking crises and Bush's former best friend Ken Lay's Enron... the world's biggest money scam* operation based out of Texas. (*next to Bush's 9/11 biggest world scam that is) Funny how birds of the same feather flock together.

Dr, Von Braun said...

Don't worry, Ben's magic money machine is running at the red line. Take a look at M3:

It's to da moon!

russdog777 said...

I couldn't agree more and it's good to see that at least Citi's Prince lost his job!

HOOORRAAAY! Some slight amount of justice at last..

Now reclaiming all his ill-gotten gains will be the next step. It'll be hard to get the monies back to the rightful owners but I would be happy just to know that this conman and his heirs don't get to keep the loot. Maybe he even goes to jail?

Man justice can be slow in coming (ENRON as the case in po9int) but it is really sweet when it does. These leeches on Wall street have been sucking the money out of the mainstream American economy for too long and this could be the first step of a long-overdue correction.

devestment said...

Sounds like a liqidity problem.
I just did ;)

Anonymous said...

Its getting ugly here in Riverside Ca. too. There are a ton of houses for sale here and its affecting rental prices. So much for the theory of inflationary rent prices here, because its going the other way fast. There is starting to be a distinct division between flipper rentals and seasoned landlords. The flipper rentals with high asking prices lay vacant waiting for foreclosure.
The local economy is being affected

Anonymous said...

I predict the markets will be green tomorrow and they will say the losses were already priced in to stocks

Anonymous said...

Santa Claus will ONLY be at the Salvation Army this year!

Anonymous said...

i'm pissed. i was going to short C on the open tomorrow but they spilled the beans on me early. Sigh.

Anonymous said...

"(*next to Bush's 9/11 biggest world scam that is) "


nnj said...

Didn't Mike Norman and Ben Stein say buy the financials?

November 05, 2007 12:28 AM

Yes they did. Peter Schiff called financials "toxic." Of course, everyone disagreed with Pete.

I was going to put together all of the recent headlines involving finance company losses, and soon came to realize that I simply do not have the time for such a huge project.

Shakster said...


Anonymous said...

real estate only goes up!

Anonymous said...

Prince, 57, said in yesterday's statement ``that given the size of the recent losses in our mortgage-backed securities business, the only honorable course for me to take as chief executive officer is to step down.''


Anonymous said...

Mark to Market, biiiieeeotch!

Gavin said...

Today Yves over at naked capitalism has a great tip. Citi's writedowns, even whatever value they're going to claim later today, have not TOUCHED their $55B exposure to subprimes.. which is the value BEFORE their SIV exposure.

If Citi applies the same valuation to its CDO's that Merrill already did, that defines a market and thus they must mark their CDO's within SIV's to that value.

And that would make them instantly insolvent.

Anonymous said...


Their beating lawyers in Pakistan!

Lets make America next!!!!!


Anonymous said...


That is so Great!

Anonymous said...

Makes enron look like a teaparty

Anonymous said...

Dear HP
Why did Chuck Prince resign ? The real reason is to protect himself from JAIL.Remember he is a lawyer and he realises that he will be criminally liable for the financial skeletons around the corner.
He is bailing out in time.
Also notice that his successor says that he will NOT HAVE OPERATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY .again a hint that they are have JAIL uppermost in their minds
What a set of pure theiv*s

Anonymous said...

look at the rate at which the fund raising money is going up

Princess Mononoke said...

Yep, we are still seeing the tip of the ICEBERG! The high risk investments most (?reputable?) banks made have NOT been entirely exposed! Be prepared for the avalanche to truly start cascading down early next year...

NY Times wrote a great short article today on the CDOs, SIVs & MBSs LOL...

Princess Mononoke said...

Speaking of corruption... there was a brilliant revealing article written in today's L.A. Times regarding IRAQs devastating cycle of corruption and Bush's admin turning a blind eye. Includes excerpt from Oct. 25th Oversight Committee meeting.,0,3402211.story?coll=la-tot-opinion&track=ntothtml