October 21, 2007

Will the stock market crash this week?

A) Yes

B) No

At one point the market is going to have to come to terms with the worldwide housing crash, mortgage meltdown and dollar destruction.

Ben Bernanke wanted to delay that day of reckoning. But we're living on borrowed time.

After taking advantage of the Fed Party, I'm back to extreme defensive as of last week. Let's get it on.


EconomicDisconnect said...

I predict the market will be up pretty big on Monday, with the DOW up over 250 points. All that was lost on Friday will be recovered and then some by weeks end. Still too much optimism out there, and renewed rate cut talk will push stocks higher short term. The next time the market goes down over 350 points though, I think that will be the real start of a long term downtrend. We will see.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


I'm going out on a limb here.....

chances are 50/50 it will go up or down,

it either will or it won't!

Don't quote me!


Anonymous said...

Sadly no - I think people are going to be bargain hunting on Monday. But it was fun to see it go down on the 20th anniversary of the 1987 crash. On the plus side - even if Wall Street has a good day there's still no way housing will see good times for a while anyway

Anonymous said...

My puts on Home Builders & Financials are in place. If not this week, sometime very soon.

Anonymous said...

If it does go back up I'm buying more puts.

W.C. Varones said...

I bloody well hope so. I bought Jan 50 QQQQ puts last week.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

I think it will go down more on Monday .Georgia is running out of water , California is burning ,and people are depressed . Yep ,another down day on Monday .

Anonymous said...

I think it will go up on Monday because Ben spent all weekend printing more money to prop it up. . .but he can't postpone things forever. . .I think it might be like the slow decline from 2000 to 2003. . .and back to about 10K.

Anonymous said...

I hate to cheer for a downfull but I keep buying more putsand they keep paying. CFC was one heck of a gift last Friday.

I've been looking at FXI as a long put but the price is a little steep. Still... it's tempting.

Anonymous said...

nikkei down 504 points 30 min after opening

Anonymous said...

Third quarter results will continue this week. There will be more poor results/news, so the market will be down all this week. Especially with so many companies coming out and saying they are not all together confident about 4th quarter results either. The optimisim has toned down, investors are more cautious.

Anonymous said...

down -2,430!!!!!!!!!

Massive crash!

Realist® said...

Everytime the stock market goes down, the shills scream "Buy the dips it's like a discount sale"...


Anonymous said...


With the massive liquidity pumping going on I'd say that question has already been answered. It has already collapsed it just hasnt hit bottom.

Anonymous said...

maybe this week, the nikkei index in Asia dropped 500 points in the first our of trading. and Europe is expeting "big share falls" because of Friday's sell off on wall street.

here's the BBC's article:


I live in Los Angeles, and los angeles is burnig!!

Anonymous said...

The stock market has nothing to do with anything. Everything is manipulated. Japan, China, Uncle Sugar, and the ECB have so many dollars that a stock market &/or banking crash is impossible.

Anonymous said...

the Nas and SP500 both closed ON THEIR LOWS.

as a trader, i can tell you this is a sign of extreme panic and bearishness.

closing on the lows, means a huge sell imbalance with no bottom pickers on the close.

the BIDs left and the market sellers sold it right down to the bell.

if Asia tanks tonight, which is just opening, we may see a further slide Monday.

Either way, up and down for the middle of this week, and then by the end of the week, we WILL CLOSE LOWER THAN FRIDAY.

Anonymous said...

Right now Asian markets are down huge with major carry trade unwind. I believe American markets will plummet tomorrow.
Keith it looks like a vintage Housing Panic week.

Anonymous said...

Define crash.

If "crash" is > 10% decline, no.

If "crash" is any decline that is a big nominal number and that will scare people who don't know to look at the percentage moves, yes.

Anonymous said...

I don't know. Ask the Rockefellers and the other international bankers that rule the world.


Until this unbelievable central bank scam is destroyed we'll always be prey to the diabolical movtives of those that control the private central banks. And this is not a problem confined to the USA. Educate yourselves and educate everyone you know. The media is completely compromised by these same people so don't wait for the media to inform you.

Anonymous said...

Why would the stock market fall? Latin American market indices are way up, 42% just this year and they an average 40% poverty rate.

A country can function quite well when only 5% have all the wealth. It will be no different here.

Do you really think the capitalists will go hungry?


Anonymous said...

IT WILL BE DOWN OVER 800 POINTS.......................ON MONDAY ALONE.







Anonymous said...

Dont you ask this question every week? Some weeks you even boldly predict that this is the week. I suppose since it is in the form of a question you wont technically be wrong when the week is over.

I dont know why you are looking for a stock market crash. The P/E of 90% of the stocks out there is reasonable. And even though you love to bash the american economy and the dollar going into the toilet the truth is that weak dollar helps most of the companies in the big indexes as they export and do a lot of business abroad.

Anonymous said...

The Nikkei stock market plunged 550 points early this morning. It has since pulled up to 440. Who knows what the day's final tally will be?

I'd say the DJIA is toast.

Anonymous said...

I think it's about time for another black monday. I'm not sure if it's going to happen or not, but it sure looks like it will.

I'm real happy with my portfolio right now.

Euros up, Foreign currencies (including the Yen) up
Gold up, Gold miners and prescious metals funds up
Oil up, Alternative energy up, Oil stocks up.
BEARX up for the year almost 10% right now.

Last friday was a poor day for most of my investments, but the Yen and BEARX saved the day and I only had a 0.5% decline in my overall portfolio (when the market was down 2.5%), for the week I was up big! (not down 3.5 - 4% like the indexes).



Anonymous said...

Asian Market is already tanking!!!

This baby will come down early meet resistance mid day then start tanking around 12pm. There is no good news to put forth a full turn around. The G7 meetings were a non issue for positive news and the only thing that might be positive would be earnings from Apple.

Dow Futures down 112 points already!!!!!

Housing numbers tuesday - wed
CPI Number thursday
Countryfried earnings on friday

Buckle up this week, it will be ugly!!

Anonymous said...

I would say YES. Asia & Europe & Australia Markets are taking dives! Big Time!!

If it doesn't happen Monday... look out
on Wed and Thurs when more horrific housing data comes out.

Oil will be at the $100 mark very soon.
Gas will be at $4 a gallon next Spring also.

It will be a very long recovery.
Next year, we will be in a recession.

If the fed eases rates again, it won't matter!
If the fed tightens, it won't matter.

Everything is tied to housing. Just think about it. Look at home many jobs/businesses that are involved somehow with housing. Everyone of those families will be effected. Therefore, they will spend less because they will have less.

And since the dollar is toilet paper, when they do spend money on the actual toilet paper, they will have to spend more $$ that they don't have to get it.

So, even the strong technology sector will turn weak. Why? Well, those awesome phones and TV's and computers, and video games will cost more because the dollar is less. Imports will cost the US consumer more since the dollar is falling.

And do you think Google can keep the pace to 800? Well, maybe, but they make money through advertising. Advertising budgets will tighten because most businesses will be in recession. So, look out for the sell off of Google...

But, I would have to say, you will not hear the truth again, like Caterpillar laid it out for us.

Anonymous said...

DOW Futures down 112 points right now.


Anonymous said...

Asian Markets are selling off.
I will be watching Europe.
Dollar is down big already.

I think Monday will be Gray, perhaps Black.

Anonymous said...


stuckinthecity said...


Anonymous said...

A 500pt crash on Mon-Tue then PPT steps in again to break even on Friday

Anonymous said...


I wouldn't count on a market crash if the dollar continues to plunge or stay at these low levels.

Anonymous said...

Holy cr_p! The storm is picking up steam:

13,326 Homes Offered For Sale on Countrywide Financial's Website

Total Asking Price: $2,795,448,915


Anonymous said...

No. The crash is at least 3 months out.

Anonymous said...

Everyone should watch this video, including you Keith:


Anonymous said...

Bankers saw crisis coming, but were powerless
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:57 PM ET Oct 21, 2007
PrintPrint EmailE-mail Subscribe to RSSSubscribe to RSS DisableDisable Live Quotes
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The world's biggest bankers said Sunday their greed made them powerless to prevent the train wreck in credit markets, even though they recognized that markets weren't pricing the risk of subprime default appropriately.
"No one was surprised" by the meltdown of the U.S. subprime market and the resulting impact on credit markets, said Josef Ackermann, chairman of Deutsche Bank AG and chairman of the Institute of International Finance, a group of hundreds of major banks from all over the world that was set up 25 years ago in reaction to earlier financial crises. "We worried about these things."

Anonymous said...

But the Christmas season is coming and it's going to be OUTSTANDING!

Anonymous said...

I hope we do have a big correction....I need to buy more ETFs

As for how much it goes down...Who cares?? Unless you need the money this week it's just a bump in the road. Look at the crash of '87 and follow the chart...just a little bump in the road.

Anonymous said...

I woke up to see gold manipulated downward, the US dollar manipulated upward. The plunge protection kidz are settings us up for a BIG stock market drop.

Look out below if you hold stocks.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't count on a market crash if the dollar continues to plunge or stay at these low levels.


The US dollar got a very suspicious boost overnight. So...fasten your seatbelts.

Anonymous said...

I have puts on home builders and financials too - after reading this blog and other sites for over a year, it seemed like the right thing to do. Nobody put a gun to my head and made me buy them, so I accept the risks involved. But having said that, my Citigroup and Washington Mutual puts have almost tripled since last week. Yay for me.

This deranged bull market amazes me, it just keeps going - it's like July all over again! - so I won't call for a crash just yet (although it would be nice to just get it over with), but I can't see how the market will keep going if the Fed cuts again and oil, priced in US dollars goes up even more.

Oh yeah, iPhones are selling!


Anonymous said...

There is no correlation between the stock market and the financial health of J6P. The only way the market will go down is if *they* want it to go down. The market is not a reflection of any underlying economic reality. 170 warehouse lenders go belly up and the NYSE goes up. What does that tell you?

ApleAnee said...

Article about Bear Stearns forming an alliance with Chinese bank CITIC? When insolvency stikes U.S. banks will China be there to absorb them?
An ending I hadn't quite envisioned.


Anonymous said...

Oct. 30 2007
Markets down, interest lowered again, gold and oil skyrocket, dow up 350.

On the street, credit cards maxed out, forclosures rise, weak dollars buy less, and the consumer driven recession begins. Interest then gets raised to bail out large corporations and banks with shrinking earnings.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
But the Christmas season is coming and it's going to be OUTSTANDING!

That is SOOOOOO true! As long as you limit your prediction to first day sales. Its only going to be outstanding for the savvy consumer. I believe that the retailers will be GIVING AWAY their teaser items, for free, on Black Friday just to get people into the stores. The malls have been pretty dead on payday lately. Although, it is rather nice to walk into ANY restaurant on a Friday night and get seated right away, no lines.

On a related note, sheet rock, at Home Depot, is almost half off the price it was this time last year.
It looks like the holidays will be a good time to get my spare room remodeled.

Anonymous said...

"...California is burning. It's really ironic, maybe not, but houses burned at the height of foreclosures.Hmmm!

Maybe it's because of the Santa Ana winds. Don't you guys think that people in deep sh't would wish for Santa Ana winds as well?Lol!

Anonymous said...

The reason for the Bull market from 1982 till today is the largest population (Baby Boomers )putting 401K money into the stock market. Around 2010 is when Boomers will start to need their money. Wall Street does not have a large source of funds to replace the Boomers as Generation X is half as large and twice as broke. The whole Bush plan to save Social Security without raising payroll taxes was to save Wall Street just as they would be losing Boomer funding. The market will go down around 2010 (plus of minus a few years) and stay down for a decade, until Generation Y, which is larger than Boomers, come into their prime working years and start placing their money into Wall Street. This will not happen if Social Security money is diverted into Wall Street coffers, as that would begin another Bull market.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
The reason for the Bull market from 1982 till today is the largest population (Baby Boomers )putting 401K money into the stock market. Around 2010 is when Boomers will start to need their money....

Too bad you forgot about a growing global market. Nice try.

Anonymous said...

Too bad you forgot about a growing global market. Nice try.

October 23, 2007 1:44 AM

You mean all those investors in Sub Sahara Africa, former Soviet Union, Mexico, Brazil and all those other growth regions?

Now if youre refering to "aids" epidemic then I agree, otherwise, like most everyone else you are off your rocker.