October 06, 2007

Its your choice America - a mind-numbing 10-year-plus bout of housing deflation, or an American-style give-it-to-me-now home price crash




A) Japanese-style

B) American-style

What's your choice?

52 comments:

Andrew said...

let's just get this over with....

Anonymous said...

The one with the baseball cap, is that DOPES at McDonalds?

Anonymous said...

Burn baby burn

Anonymous said...

Give it to me over 4 years.
It's a quick crash, but not so mind-numbing.

Anonymous said...

Why are Americans so fat?

a former american said...

Any government (Roman, Japan, UK, USSR, Zimbabwe) will do everything possible to stave off collapse. Japan didn't have the choice to acquire new wealth through war, but the US does. The real problems in the US are obvious to everyone that cares to look, and this obvious loss of America's superior military and economic position is too much of a cost to willingly bear. A depression style collapse is unlikely to happen unless the US exhausts it's strength and wealth -- which this housing wealth collapse just might do sooner than later.

Japan had the advantage of being able to run government deficits because of their trade surplus. America has both a government and international trade deficit, so it's going after oil wealth instead.

If the war in Iraq ends up transferring 10+ trillion dollars of wealth over to America, then the situation for America will be much better for a long long time. It's like Enron and Worldcom -- they can keep cooking the books and make everything appear to be fine, but only by pursuing bigger and more risky profits. The worst case is to lose in Iraq (as evidenced by long and drawn out war and eventual withdrawal), and sooner face the reality of it's true economic and social problems.

You haven't seen anything yet -- this will end badly for the US unless it gains control of Iraqi oil, and for that to succeeds perhaps America will likely have to become fascist which won't be pretty either.

So maybe the choice is:

a) do what it takes to win the war in iraq/iran (for example, quell dissent and internal viloence) and face those uncertain problems.

or

b) face the political, economic, military and social reality, and bear the political cost of doing that.

Do you think the American's will go quietly? I don't think so. Get prepared for fascism.

Anonymous said...

American style. So lets bottom by 2009 & then dance along the bottom for a few years.

Anonymous said...

We won't have a choice

Fast and furious now

Anonymous said...

I like the 4 year - plan. Painful enough to burn the lessons in the minds of at least one generation.

Former American: If we want the frigging oil we could just take it. A little less drama please.

I agree with you on the fascism - I think the attacks on Limbaugh on the floor of Congress by our government prove what the democrats in power are capable of. Evita Clinton will be perfect.

Edgar said...

Kieth, American style means a corrupt and godless corporate gubbermint and banking system manipulates everything until the whole country is unrecognizable.

Christopher said...

Looks like Japanese style:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21151222/

Anonymous said...

No brainer option A

american_LGBT_person said...

In America if we don't acknowledge a problem, there is no problem.

War -check
Health care - check
Jobs - check
No rights - loss of freedoms - check
Hydrocarbon use - check

Move along no problems here - folks.

cobra2411 said...

A Former American, you make an interesting point about the oil. I forgot about that play. Housing, stocks and the dollar need to get much worse, but with Ben stabbing the heart of the dollar it shouldn't take too long before people just beg the government to do anything. I still think it's tinfoil hat material at this time, but it is an interesting possibility. If Ben cuts rates again it comes out of the tinfoil hat section.

Anon 11:43, First PICK A NAME! it's annoying trying to respond to points like this...

You say we don't have a choice now? Let Ben cut another 50 or 100bps off the rate and see what it will do to stabilize housing prices. Of course gas will be $10 a gal and milk will cost $15. The dollar menu at Micky D's will be replaced with the $5 menu... But housing prices will stabilize at some point as the dollar plummets. Of course in constant value dollars it'll be a fast and furious crash, but in case you haven't noticed most Americans aren't too financially bright...

Anonymous said...

Why? We eat to much

Mussolini invented fascism. He defined it as the binding together of big gov't and big buisness.

When most Americans say fascism what they really mean is dictatorship(Hitler Stalin etc). But by Mussolinis' definition dont we already have fascism?

Anonymous said...

Get'er done!

vegas crash watcher said...

The worse the better.

Anonymous said...

.




Bring it !




.

Anonymous said...

.



Isn't that Fat Bastard?



.

Anonymous said...

.



If not, it will be!




.

Anonymous said...

A slow crash is better. Nobody wants chaos and armgeddon. You might end up without food or running water.

Anonymous said...

That little porker would look good trussed up on my BBQ spit.

JimAtLaw said...

We need a real collapse - bring sanity back to this country, like the depression did to our great grandparents and its aftermath to our grandparents.

We should be able to feed and house the people this time, there will not be starvation in the streets, and if we're lucky we can make a dent in the culture of overconsumption and negative savings. Unfortunately, one side effect of this would likely be that causes like saving the earth (e.g., recycling) which do not have immediate tangible economic benefit may be thrown by the wayside for a while. But, I'm thinking this may be preferable to increasingly stupid schemes that end up transferring what little wealth there is left (after the deliberate destruction of our manufacturing base) to all the wrong people for all the wrong reasons.

oneclickplus said...

American style, of course. Git'er done!!

whitetower said...

"and this obvious loss of America's superior military"

Say what? The US military flicked aside one of the largest militaries in the world (Iraq) like it wasn't even there. And, the US military's occupation is being fought with two hands and one leg tied behind its back -- thanks to politicians in Washington afraid of knicking paint off a mosque.

Oil isn't the issue either -- the world was buying Saddam's oil prior to the 2003 invasion. And since then the US has spent far more in Iraq than the total value of all Iraqi oil.

The main problems are: increased social welfare spending under Republicans over the last six years necessitating massive federal borrowing, and loose monetary policies that weakened the dollar and discouraged savings.

Anonymous said...

Feeling the sharp edge of capitalism at the end of these asset bubbles is how we win.

No Japan zombie bullshit.

Watch the Chicoms deal with their bubble, and someday we will ask What Happened to China Ruling the World?

The die-off guys always see the last straw coming, if not a historic asset bubble, then peak oil, which is a problem with plenty of lead time, and plenty of economic incentives. Any big pinch there, and we say ah fuck it we'll gassify coal, and figure out ways to mitigate environmental harms relatively quickly.

Some guys would rather make sandals out of tires than plan for living. Why?

Not to say you wouldn't be negligent in neglecting flu pandemic plans, but that will have a limited time horizon.

Anonymous said...

Christ almighty...those kids embody US greed and sloth and gluttony.

Well, at least they'll survive the long and deep recession that's headed our way - for a few months anyway.

Great pics Keith...might be the best ever on this site.

Joe SIX said...

Give it to me Hard and FAST!

Anonymous said...

housing crash? oh you mean the 2% decline in home prices after a 200% runup?

quick, slow, whatever. you renting tools will be paying off my mortgage through your rent no matter what

throw in some govt bailout money and 10 years from now housing prices will have doubled yet again.

Anonymous said...

Geez, when you put it that way the Japanese way sounds beter.

Anonymous said...

"You haven't seen anything yet -- this will end badly for the US unless it gains control of Iraqi oil, and for that to succeeds perhaps America will likely have to become fascist which won't be pretty either."

I think what's really going on here is the Oil Bourse not oil production, itself. Realize, Mexico and Canada make up a large percentage (~35%) of the US's foreign crude import (see DOE site => http://tinyurl.com/7ldt) so in the sense, there's plenty of crude in the pipeline (pun intended). What's missing, however, is the reliance of the petrodollar regime which has been challenge by both the middle east and now, even the former Soviet Union. And these are the geopolitical powder-kegs. If oil were to be priced in an index (x% Euro, y% Yen, and z% Ruble) then there'd be no petrodollar exchanges and the USD would collapse on the forex, within a 5-7 year period, as oppose to 25-30 which was what happened during the fall of the British Empire for the Sterling. And when I say collapse, I don't mean a measely 3 Pound Sterling to 1 USD or a 2.5 Euro to 1 USD but more like 10:1 or 8:1, a complete disaster.

Anonymous said...

Bubble sitters dream: fast and furious with everything staying about the same but housing suddenly affordable again. Likelihood? To quote the Barry Levinson flim, Liberty Heights, "dream girls don't exist". Maybe some twisted, unanticipated variant is the most likely outcome.

area 51 said...

Selfish gluttonous Americans won't get it unless it is long and slow and agonizing.
I pick "A"

Bitterrenter said...

"...have to become fascist"? We're already there in many ways.

The hallmarks of fascism:

1. Overt racism- you can see that in covert and very overt ways in the immigration debate

2. Belligerent nationalism- need I explain?

3. Contempt for the weak- the lack of empathy and outright distaste for the sick, old, young or anyone in need

4. Fear of those who are different- queers, muslims, etc etc etc

Now tell me we don't exhibit those traits as a country.

Ryan said...

10-1 says that 10 pound bag of sh!t stuffed into a 5 pound bag shown in the picture at McDonalds grows up to be a Bush supporter.

I say gimme American style, super-sized home debtor pain. I want the market to correct already so I can buy a house.

Anonymous said...

Free happy meals for all when we hit bottom.

Anonymous said...

American style. Lets just clean the stall. Don't sit in the stall for 10 years and then decide to clean it.

Anonymous said...

Those kids look like bubbles that need to be popped also.

Anonymous said...

American style.. take about 4 years.. that’s pretty fast anyways... Japan only took so long cause they feel obligated to pay back the loan.. We don't share that mentality. If everyone is going into foreclosure then hell.. it don’t look so bad. Just like welfare, it used to be shameful to be on welfare.. now people look forward to it..

Edgar said...

Some guys would rather make sandals out of tires than plan for living. Why?

What's wrong with making sandals from tires? I want a pair myself. You get to recycle and China doesn't get your money at the same time. People with credit cards buying crap they don't need and can't afford are the ones who are ruining this country, IMO. Bring on the pain! I'll take my chances competing for life against zombie chitterlings like the ones in the picture any day.

Anonymous said...

American style. No question.

Anonymous said...

Hey, we became a third work country, we just live for the moment. Remember when America used to plan for the future, invest in infrastructure, check the bridges, invest in education, put money aside? All that's important is next quarter...see the stock market.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

This country is being transformed into a 3rd-world state of living for more and more US citizens - especially those who aren't protected by unions.

The public sector continually votes to increase salaries, while our private sector is literally gone.

HealthCare is so fragmented, and so impacted now by the influx of illegal immigrants that the system is steadily grinding to a halt for the tax paying citizens of this country.

Meanwhile, the war rages on ... $12b+ / month.

There's plenty of money floating around - it's just going in all the wrong places.

Anonymous said...

Oh, the parents of those kids on the picture should be shot.

Anonymous said...

Where do you find these pictures!!! YOu make me laugh so much with such a serious topic. I haven't been able to view the site for 2 days and I get a kick on what i missed. Keep up the good work!!!

RIch in FL

Anonymous said...

"The US military flicked aside one of the largest militaries in the world (Iraq) like it wasn't even there."

Good grief you are a credulous retard. Iraq never had a military that was in any way world-significant. No poor country of 25M people could have a military that was world-significant.

Anonymous said...

Great picture. That kid is obviously the child of an illegal. Good deal for us to educate this moron for 12 years, then pay for his health care and welfare for the next 70.

Anonymous said...

if city bank is middlemaning the war finance what about the saudi prince that owns the largest ammount of its corporate shares...is he trying to loot arabia and persia as well as the u.s or just trying to get more conytol over the sheeples.....

A Former American said...

"If we want the frigging oil we could just take it."

Nonsense. Even at 10 million extra barrels of oil each day it would take 30+ years to sell all of the Iraqi oil. 10 million barrels a day is 3-4 times what they've ever sold in the past -- it will take 5+ years to build the infrastructure in a stable country to get 10 million barrels a day production.

"I think what's really going on here is the Oil Bourse not oil production"

OK, sure. One way or the other oil is exchanged for US paper money.

"Realize, Mexico and Canada make up a large percentage ... there's plenty of crude in the pipeline"

I've read quite a number of times that there is no present shortage of crude oil, so I agree, this isn't about the need to meet a demand shortage. It's about shifting the eventual wealth generated by the oil to American bank accounts.

Anonymous said...

.


Shortage is just the catchword for.....robbery


.

Chris LaBarbera said...

I would go with the Japanese style. Sushi is way better than the garbage from Mcdonalds.

Anonymous said...

I am not sure, but those frightening looking porkers at McD's could be a scene from the movie "Super Size Me". The background song is "Rock and Roll McDonalds"

I would prefer the Japanese option, but I am thinking this ship is going down faster than that. Things in this fun house mirror are Really closer than they appear. Dubyuh has cooked the books so badly that it is later than it seems.