October 24, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day

It's a week until the next Fed meeting where Ben can cut rates to destroy the dollar while bailing out the mortgage gambler hedge funds and banks.

So shouldn't we be seeing some more blatantly wrong government data coming out to support a rate cut (that will later be revised)?

Will the Fed:

1) Cut
2) Hold
3) Raise


Anonymous said...

I say he stays put. I am problably incorrect again, same as last month when lowered 50 basis points.

If Ben keeps this going, he will have to raise rates dramatically soon, as inflation starts becoming more apparent.

ben gambling said...

You gotta know when to hold ‘em,
know when to fold ‘em.
Know when to walk away,
know when to run.

Put your chips on the table, because I smell a rate cut.

Peter T said...

Last months decrease was too large based on data that have been revised since then. I assume no change now if there is no sudden downturn in the financial markets again.

Anonymous said...

Of course he cuts. And the dow will be up 500. It's not the right thing to do. It is however what will happen. Invest accordingly.

Anonymous said...

This drunk bartender will lower rates 25bps to top up already drunk wallstreet clients.

Tangelo Mozilo said...

He'll probably cut again by 50 bp.

At this point, I don't care if he does or not. If he cuts, we have hyperinflation and my gold goes through the roof. If he doesn't cut, we have a stock market crash and my gold does very well.

Heads I win, tails the bulls lose.

Anonymous said...

Hold, but he should raise them a 1/4

borkafatty said...

If he lowers I am maxing out, I am going to take every bit of equity out of my house that i have and get the hell out of dodge..I mean it.

What it there to loose..nothing obviously.

Snowden said...

50bp cut, got to carry Fleet Street, as well as Wall Street now. UK banks are lining up for a bail out FROM US!

RBS is getting fed cash to "offset loses from U.S. investors." whatever the hell that means.

I guess fed cargo aircraft will fly the world over, dropping bales of cash to cover our debts, until the slate is wiped clean or nobody accepts reserve notes as legal tender.

Parity with the Canadian dollar? We should be worried about parity with the Zimbabwe dollar.


Anonymous said...

Unless staggeringly bad news comes
out in the interim, or Wall St
does a belly flop, I think there will be no rate cut. The Powers that Be
have said things are "okay". Have
to keep up that facade, don't they?

cobra2411 said...

The cynic in my says 50bps cut.

LauraVella said...

Bad data = 2% inflation
(more lies)

Feds will do another 25-50bp rate cut.

sam said...

I took the Dec fed funds future bet in August when it showed a 90% chance of 4.25% by year end. Got somewhat steamrolled by the .5% cut, but will still do OK if we hold out this month.

That being said, I believe Bernanke will cut- his talk this week shows him to wannabe a whore to wall street. Hope I'm not right, but as long as he doesn't cut .5, I might as well hold my position.

Also, the fed is engaged in some extreme double speak-

When they say they will not target asset prices, they mean they will target rate cuts only to support declining asset prices (while ignoring bubbles).

When they say it's not their job to bail out speculators, they mean they'll be bailing out speculators.

When they say their number 1 concern is inflation, they mean their number 1 concern is convincing people that inflation doesn't exist, regardless of clear trends in commodity prices.

Anonymous said...

"What it there to loose..nothing obviously."
How about losing one of those "o's"


Happy Homedebtor said...

Given that they're still under the illusion that "core inflation" - which doesn't include housing/rents, food, or energy (Like you know...the things we actually /need/ to get through daily life) - still shows maybe 2% +/-, he'll probably cut.

My gas is up over 100% the last 3-4 years, food is pushing pretty close, and housing...well, we all know how that goes. ;)

honica jewinski said...

I think the jews will hold steady this go round'.

On a side note.....

It is time to refresh the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrants. Go to their houses. Do what must be done to save this Republic from the treacherous, traitorous, tyrannical scumbags in the U.S. Senate.

The Senate has defied The People of this republic time after time after time on this issue. This time must be the end of their defiance.

sheep devest said...

rate cut followed by dow and inflation surge.

Anonymous said...

they just said on cnbc that they think there will be 100% chance of a rate cut! probably 50 bs points

rich in fl

Anonymous said...

it is looking like it will be CUT, so prepare accordingly.

all that is needed is another incorrect jobs report that is later revised up.

Anonymous said...

Should do: raise 75bp
Will do: cut 25bp

Time to beat down the IBs and the culture of finance so hard that it doesn't recover for decades.

Anonymous said...

if ben cuts again, I am going to start tapping my heloc and moving it into other currencies, and oil and gold stocks.

Anonymous said...





Anonymous said...

He will cut .25 points, pleasing absolutely no one.

bryce in canada (Vcvr&Clgry bubbls) said...

He's gonna cut.

That sucks*.

The time will come when he will raise them.
I don't know when that will be.
But it ain't gonna be next week.

*unless you're a Wall Street gambler

we are so screwed said...

I think that he will have the seared salmon with a side salad...

Frank@Scottsdale-Sucks.com said...

The idiot will hold.

I'd love to see a full 1 or 2 point increase to flush out all this crap and proverbially press the reset button. But no such luck.

Charles said...

.25 Cut and another .25 before years end. The good Dr Nouriel Roubini said as much in an interview before the .50 bomb (which he also predicted correctly.

Anonymous said...

Very precarious situaion. If he cuts, more foreign owned dollars leave, the dollar depreciates even more against other currencies.

The real danger in cutting rates is that foreigners will no longer invest here, this is starting to happen right now. Our debt driven economy is fueled by money from abroad.

My best guess is that he will leave rates unchanged. I think way too many people take this guy to be an idiot and a tool of wall street. He knows perfectly well what is going on. This guy taught monetary policy at Princeton. And I don't know why people always think this guy is pandering to wall street. What connections does he have will wall street? He's been an academic his whole life.

Bottom line though, it's a terrible situation. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't type of situaion.

Palladin said...

Well, lessee... inflation running at only 2%, subprime appears to be contained, and the economy is in good health.
Yep...expect another rate cut.

(the FED doesn't give a damn about oil prices, food prices, reset foreclosures or what have you. The FED is a CARTEL OF BANKS - they care only about their members and that's it! Banks only have 10% reserves to cover all the money they loaned out to all those NINJAs and swindlers, so the banks are going broke fast! The banks need help and the FED is going to force it out of us.)

Have Gold, will Travel...

Anonymous said...

I doubt he will cut. His previous cut was based on data that was later revised upwards. So from that standpoint, the 50 bp cut was unjustified.

And with continued devaluation of the currency, foreign investors drying up and high oil prices, I seriously doubt he will have the ammunition to lower again. He knows it might have the opposite effect and put Wall Street in panic mode. (Assuming they aren't there already)

Even Greenspan in his book said that today's Fed doesn't have the leway he had during his tenure. And in actuality, we will be seeing double digit rates in years to come. Looks like the late 70s and early 80s all over again.

borkafatty said...

"What it there to loose..nothing obviously."
How about losing one of those "o's"



Big deal a type "O" It cant be any worse than sitting at a desk all day with nothing to sell...so who is the real loser....loser..

And yes I would life fries with that.

DaveO said...

It seems to me that most of the time, he says the economy is doing well. The only time he says it isn't doing well is a day or two between each meeting. So it's drop .25%, economy does well for 43 days, 2 days of bad economy, .25% drop, 43 days of good economy, 2 days of bad economy, etc. Where will he have to go once he reaches 0%?

DaveO said...

I meant to say .5%, not .25%. That'll get us to 0% faster, with absolutely no breathing room.

we are so screwed said...

King Bush doesn't want a housing crash, market crash, or military loss to tarnish his legacy so I expect more rate cuts, more soylent green-backs, and more declarations of victory over the next year.

I also expect the Fed to monetize (buy) many of the toxic mortgages and to bury them in the dead of night.

After all, King Bush appointed Bernanke and the Benster will do what he is told if he knows what is good for him...

Anonymous said...

Dude, you guys should all get a fed funds futures account because the markets saying 100% chance for 25 bp next week, 25 bp in december and another 40% there's an extra 25bp there somewhere. Note I am not a futures broker or professional, but like to bet these things with a small speculative personal account.

In other words, for $800 margin, you'll break-even on a 25 pt cut, make $1000 on a hold and lose $1000 on a 50bp cut betting on November contract.

Unfortunately, I now go with the idea of Bernanke as wall street tool after losing my last bet and worry he is so craven a tool as to hoist a 50 bp cut on us. If he holds, he has real courage to face down the market.

I did short the 30 year bond today though. Expect the SIV refis will result in some chips coming off the US table and that will be reflected primarily in the long end of the curve.

MrCoffee said...

It's obvious that Barnanke will do what the media and Wall Street cronies tell him to. The prudent savers, people on fixed incomes, and the poor be damned. He is such a puppet and lacks any credibility.

I'm predicting 100 basis points at least, since it's already priced in the market. Expect food, energy, and import prices to double within the next year. Young people still won't be able to afford a house, because of stagnant wages.


JimAtLaw said...

Ben will cut, because his masters on Wall St. (you know, the ones who are going to be paying his consulting fees when he leaves the Fed if not already) have told him so, just like they did last time.

Anonymous said...

A cut 50 basis points....I know...now do you.

Anonymous said...

Trading in federal funds futures suggests a 100 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week; the only question is how much. Investors increased bets that the reduction will be a half point, rather than a quarter point.

the drb said...

They say:
"Inflation remains our primary

They mean:
"Figuring out how to keep even our fudged inflation numbers under 3% remains our primary concern."

Honestly, how long until they change the way the calculate that lie again. I mean if true inflation is running at 15%, (just around the corner, currently at 10%) then the statistic reported by the government has to be up above 3-4% too, right?
Why do they even report that thing? Everyone knows it is a joke. Here is a thought about it, though. I don't like to believe in conspiracy theories but, if we assume that the government reported inflation number is wrong, then we must determine why it is wrong, if it is done purposefully of not. We know that is not a mistake, and done for a reason, they we know the governemnt wants to steal from those on social security and those investing in inflation indexed bonds.
If we have a government that is willing to do that, what else are they capable of?

Anonymous said...

we are so screwed said...
King Bush doesn't want a housing crash, market crash, or military loss to tarnish his legacy so I expect more rate cuts, more soylent green-backs, and more declarations of victory over the next year.

I also expect the Fed to monetize (buy) many of the toxic mortgages and to bury them in the dead of night.

After all, King Bush appointed Bernanke and the Benster will do what he is told if he knows what is good for him...

October 24, 2007 9:02 PM

Do you really think Bush is the one in charge? The Rothschilds and other central bankers are our masters. The whole reason this country was founded was to escape this central banker Ponzi scheme. This game has been going on for hundreds of years. This is the reason the Constitution was written precisely to have sound money backed by gold & silver. Here is a quote from Jefferson back in the day:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies ... If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." (Thomas Jefferson, 1743-1826)

Paul E. Math said...

I say Bernanke will turn around, drop his pants to his ankles and bend all the way over so that his Wall St. masters can have a go at him and, indirectly, the working, saving American family. How many bps is that?

SEC said...

He will cut 50 basis points to keep the market artificially pumped up--but it won't work

Anonymous said...

Cutting rates won't help if the banks are afriad of lending money.

Anonymous said...

Who cares? That's like asking how far the Captain of the Titanic will turn the rudder! It doesn't matter.

The events in motion cannot be stopped. The economy's hull has been breached and we are taking on major water. We are soooo going down, just like the Titanic!

Bill in AZ said...

Anonymous said...
"What it there to loose..nothing obviously."
How about losing one of those "o's"


Hey, man - I get just as annoyed at people's illiteracy, believe me. (Especially the above example, which is both extremely common and pretty ironic.)

However, when correcting someone's grammar, you should be careful to get it right yourself. Like this:

The word is "lose", not "loose", you loser.

we are so screwed said...

"The Rothschilds and other central bankers are our masters."

The Saudi royal family pumps a lot of bribes, ahem, revenue into the Bush family.

However, I don't see how rising oil prices (due to inflation) and instability in the Middle is good for them.

Perhaps they have a long-term strategy of economically hobbling the last superpower so that they can dictate policy backed up with the threat of dumping dollars and shutting down oil production (i.e. game over for the US).

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Anonymous said...

Borrow, borrow, borrow like there is no tommorrow. Hmmm, seems like American's have no real money, only borrowed money, so lower the rates so that the slaves can stay borrowing and working. Is not the United States 9 Trillin dollars in debt, 2 billion a day in borrowed money, the largest debt of any nation in the history of the world, then why should the citizens of the USA be any different than the nation. Only don't tell the average citizen, for they have no idea of the aformentioned. Smart people would not run their household like the USA runs its finances. Seems like the USA Titanic will be running full steam ahead until it hits an iceberg. Rates will be going down, and the almighty dollar has a lot more to fall from its 1990's high.

charlatan said...

the market seems to think a cut. is it a quarter point cut or a half point cut. either way it is madness.

hope the b of e isn't so reckless.