A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
HP'ers, bubble sitters and bitter renters - so how are your friends, neighbors, relatives and co-workers treating you NOW?
They are treating me like I have a 6th sense. I am a prophet of the times. Some even get on bended knee when I come around.
One I can't talk RE with (he just bought in the last year), one I try and help start making sound decisions, and I caught one coworker reading HP at the office.The good news is spreading!PoP
People who once thought we were crazy (when we sold in Dec '06) now tell us "you were right, you are smart" etc.At a dinner party last week, people asked us if we've bought yet. One man, whom we've only seen twice before at similar functions told me, we are going to watch you and when you buy so will we. There must be a LOT of talk about us & our bubbleheaded actions!
Well not to many talking to me at the moment... they all are pissed at me for saying."I TOLD YOU SO"
Some are starting to come around. It is difficult to talk about this with people who just bought because they are fearing what will happen next. They all know that I was calling this a few years back and now they are thinking we might just be headed for a recession afterall. I believe some have even taken cash positions to wait for the stock market fall this winter.
I'm seeing something completely different. Everyone admits that the crash is well underway. But, now everyone claims that the crash was obvious and they knew it was coming all along. Total flip-flop.
Countrywide CEO RippedBy Advisory GroupBy JAMES R. HAGERTY and JOANN S. LUBLINOctober 20, 2007; Page A2CtW Investment Group, a pension-fund advisory group affiliated with seven big labor unions, said it sent a letter to the board of Countrywide Financial Corp. urging it to ask for the immediate resignation of Angelo Mozilo, chairman and chief executive of the nation's largest home-mortgage lender in terms of loan volume.MORE ON COUNTRYWIDE Mozilo• Suit Puts Executive Pay at Countrywide Under Scrutiny10/05/07• Countrywide Aims to Repair Reputation10/03/07• Countrywide to Cut up to 12,000 Jobs09/08/07A draft of the letter, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, cited questions raised by the Securities and Exchange Commission over heavy selling by Mr. Mozilo of shares that he acquired through stock options. The letter also said that an apparent "culture of non-compliance" exposed Countrywide to litigation and increased regulatory scrutiny. Brishen Rogers, legal counsel for CtW, said criticism reflects news reports alleging that Countrywide steered borrowers into high-cost loans, a charge the company has denied.Mr. Mozilo couldn't be reached to comment. Countrywide didn't comment.pwnd
I still try to give advice. People still think I am crazy.
This depends on the age of the person I am speaking to.The young adults have no clue, others know something is afoot, but they don't really grasp it, they are still talking up housing as an investment, but say they can now get up to 50 % off asking price, etc. buy fix flip or rent.'Buy foreclosures' is the new buzz.
A good friend asks me when we're going to buy. It always rolls arounds to it, after we discuss the economy...Funny, I already told her when we we're buying,(3-5 yrs) I don't know why she keeps asking me!
Family listens when I tell them what's going on now, and what the next thing the news will talk about will be.(alt-a and existing home-debtors that refi'd to the max)They fuss about the wife and I renting, I briefly explain how prices are declining while our savings are greatly increasing, and in '09 we'll put 50% or more down on a house easily.They still raise eyebrows when I tell them prices will return to '01 levels by mid '09....
At first people thought I was crazy, now some people are anxious to hear the latest news. The signs in my area are a bit more extreme.Since I have last reported, more a few more big furniture stores have closed down. There are now even more leasing oppurtunities than 1 month ago. I have been monitoringtraffic at two major malls and they seem slow. I have interviewed long term employees at big chains such as JC Penny's, Macy's, Lowes,etc., they confirm slower sales and traffic in this area.Unfortunately, this is the Inland Empire which sets the standard for foreclosure filings nationwide. The signs are visible everywhere. Acknowlegdement is under way but a full blown panic by sellers pricingis on the brink of begining.The one thing I have also noticed is that I receive foreclosure filings 2 times a week. Normally, only 5% of REOS show a "NO SITUS ADDRESS" on their physical address.Now these bank owned REOS are doing this 100% of the time. The listings are getting huge do not let anyone tell you any differentDo some research on whether foreclosures count as sales??The answer will surprise you.Don't be tempted to buy half built builder closeouts. They are loaded with contractor liens. Do your research on the property first. All liens must be recorded by a certain date, check with the city.
Nicely...Because, they keep asking to borrow money...
What gives the British, the Italians, Russians, French, Chinese, etc. a right to have their own dedicated peace of territory on this planet, when the Kurds are being f$cked.
The people who laughed at me the loudest in 2005 are unusually quiet now and don't bring up the housing market. So I bring it up! They are finally admitting that they were completely wrong, but they were mislead by the media. I can't even get a good debate going with them about anything anymore.The people who were cautiously optimistic in 2005 freely admit they were wrong and are constantly asking me for investment advice now that the R word keeps coming up in the media.Vindication is sweet!
We rented for a year and a half after we sold our home. I soon discovered that I was wasting precious time in my life. Being retired, renting did not offer me the things I wanted to do. Four months ago we purchased a beautiful house in a wonderful Montana city. Five acres and a large shop allow me to do the things I want to do in life. Every day we watch the deer come through the yard on the way to the river. The price: $360,000. Prices here are appreciating, and I am happy we purchased when we did. So,for us, renting long-term was not a viable option.
My friends for the most part are loaded. They don't worry about $4 milk or $3 gas or if their house lost $20K in value. Specifically I have a friend who runs his own business installing custom auto parts with 7 locations in 2 states. Really smart guy with a degree in chemical engineering who is a gear head and found a way to make a living doing what he loves. Anyway he owned a fairly modest home, 3000 sq ft, $500Kish kind of thing. About 4 months ago he bought a $950K 5500 sq ft house. I talked to him and said hey man this is probably not a good idea with housing the way it is. He said basically, who the fuck cares, I am buying this house with cash, I love it, I plan on being here for a long time.If he losses $100K on this house he won't lose much sleep over it.And the same goes for the bulk of my friends/family members. One other friend owns a condo he bought in 1998. He bought it right after graduating from college. It's worth 3 times what he paid. In 2005 it was probably worth 4 times. He could have sold and rented. Had he done that he could have made an extra $50K or $100K profit compared to what he'd get today. He didn't. Again because he likes where he live and quite honestly $50K or $100K is not motivation enough for him to uproot his life.Despite what you doomers and gloomers think, not everyone is struggling to get by. And despite what you also think, most people don't follow the price of r/e 24/7. Everyone knows housing is in the shitter now. Unless people need to sell, I doubt anyone really cares all that much. At least nobody in my world does.
One thing that this housing crisis shows beyond any question is that "popular opinion is almost always wrong".
For the longest time (since 2004)I was the laughing stock at my workplace due to the fact that I was one of the few who spoke about the housing bubble and inflated prices. Those who didn't laugh outright, would often smirk, or chuckle at how stupid I was for waiting out this crazed mania. Fast foward to last week. Happy hour. Someone in our group brought up housing. The tone was downright depressing, like a bunch of dogs with their tails between their legs. Nobody said much, just a a phrase here or there about how times have changed.They asked me, if I had bought yet. MY response, "Well, you guys know, I was one who always said this market couldn't sustain itself. Now we're seeing the unwinding of the biggest housing bubble in history. Many people are hurting, and hurting REAL bad.AND THANKS TO ALL YOU F&CKERS AND SH%THEADS FOR SCREWING THIS COUNTRY, BECAUSE OF YOUR DAMNED GREED AND STUPIDITY WERE IN THIS MESS! HONEST PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO WANTED TO BUY A HOUSE COULDN'T BECAUSE A-HOLES LIKE YOU WERE PLAYING THIS GAME WITH HOUSING! SO I SAY F%CK YOU ALL! MISERABLE BASTARDS!" With that ending,I took my last beer sip and bid them all adeiu.
Finally they are listening to reason!And most agree prices are insane and know that toxic loans fueled these stupid prices. Also accept that prices are out of whack and in need of severe correction.
Luckily, most of the people I know in bubble markets have been renting for a long time. Have a brother in SoCal, making over $200K/yr and has been renting for a long time.
Anon at October 21, 2007 4:32 PM is sooo special. If you're friends don't care, then why are you saying, I talked to him and said hey man this is probably not a good idea with housing the way it is. Then you said, And despite what you also think, most people don't follow the price of r/e 24/7. Obviously, you're following, and you're concerned enough to read HP and post your bullshit story. My guess is that you follow RE 24/7.Then you said, I doubt anyone really cares all that much. At least nobody in my world does.So, we've gone from "nobody caring" to people in your world not caring. Ok, so that's maybe a dozen people that don't care.People care, people have been affected, people will be affected, a lot of people are in denial, and MANY people will be hurt, financially.
I live in the South Orange County, California, where prices are falling fast. I find that most homedebtors are still in denial or most likely just plain dumb
Like a god who knows the future
Very interesting read for those who really care:http://www.thiscantbehappening.net/?q=node/50
David in Jax- I fully agree, people I argued with a few years ago act nonchalantly as though they knew it was coming all along(most also believe prices will be up in 2-3 years, and the virtuous cycle will continue). Their thinking clearly reflects inaccurate msm reporting.psAnon 4:44- LOL!
I still go to Home Depot to see how many are still on the Titanic. Gateway stores ala 1999. NASDAQ ala February 2000. DOW ala 2001. The giddyness at Home Depot is gone. At 40, house paid btw, 4500sqtf mcman bought 1995. I do remember the other home improvement stores that never made it through the last housing recession from the early 1990's. Around 1995 many of those stores were just about to close, and I remember walking through them thinking where are all the people? I was there to get area rugs for new home, but no one was there. It was like the neutron bomb dropped. Today I usually keep quiet because people resent being told they were wrong and they do not want to hear the possibility of bad news, denial. No one in 1999 wanted to listen to the fact that NASDAQ was a Ponzi scheme.
They always say, "WHEN ARE YOU BUYING A HOUSE!!!"Like I am destroying their lives by not buying....Otherwise like other posters here, they keep conspicuously quiet when the coversation comes up.I think we are coming to the end of the denial stage.
Yesterday...arrogant towards me like I was a stupid know-nothingToday....angry towards me as "people like you caused this to happen with your fear-mongering"Huh?It is unbelievable that they think the party can go on if we "just wish hard enough"That quote from the Jack Nicholson movie about wanting to know the truth but not being able to handle it springs to mind.How do you tell somebody that they are a stupid lemming/sheep in a nice way?
It's gone from RE always goes up to bubble believers.
With silent contempt. lol
Some started to act as if they knew all along and don't remember that I told them so a couple of years ago. And others are STILL in denial and are telling me that I will be poor forever because I am a renter.
"Despite what you doomers and gloomers think, not everyone is struggling to get by."Douchebag, no one ever said that everyone is struggling to get by or that every locality has been affected by a housing bubble. Of course people with a lot of money, a lot of equity and/or those who purchased prior to 2000 are not going to be as affected as others, however, try being a first time buyer in a bubble city at this point in time.
Nowadays I tell my one coworker that she woes me 20K for saving her ass- the houses she was looking at are down 100-150K thus far. Yeah, DC sure is different- BAHAHAHHAHA!!!
I have gained some credibility that was previously denied me. Most still take what I say with a grain of salt and that's fair since I do too.Others that had been extremely argumentative with me in the past are terrified of the subject of housing now.I'm nice enough to not say 'I told you so' but I can tell they are just waiting for the first sign of recovery so they can tell me how wrong I was. Of course, I don't waste much energy worrying about that happening anytime soon.
This is for the anonymous guy who's friends are well off...http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18595.htm
When I lived in Arizona I was treated like a common criminal 2nd class scum for renting (while the "owners" who snubbed me were hiding their cars from the repo man).Now that I'm in Newport Beach people here have brains for the most part and tell me I'm smart for renting the next couple of years. There are many renters in our community paying pennies on the dollar for these very nice McMansions and we laugh at the idiots who "bought" at the peak and have mortgage payments that are more than double our rent payments.The difference is here in Newport Beach people are very entrepreneurial and realize that you have a business to make money, while in Arizona they still think a house is how you make money. Dopes.
The most interesting thing for me is that a co-worker came out of the closet and admitted that she and her husband still rent. They have never owned and have young twins (1-2 years) so they want to buy but the fundamentals aren't right. Their landlord tried to sell them the unit they rent a year ago for $100 K more than a unit in the same building just sold for. Another friend (newlywed) just bought. I know she's thinking longterm so I'm hoping for her sake that everything equals out. I'm sure she got a deal relative to a few years ago but I know she isn't buying at the bottom. She probably be there for ten years so I don't think she'll get hurt too badly.Me, I've been buying furniture and rugs with my worthless USD to make my studio apartment look amazing.
try being a first time buyer in a bubble city at this point in time.October 21, 2007 6:28 PM==========Wahhh waahhhh wahhh. So much whining on this blog. Get a job that pays more than $10 an hour and you too can afford a house.
I learned long ago to keep my political, religious and financial advice to myself. Sounds to me like many of you have a need to be proven right and gloat. You may get a short-term high from that. Long-term all you will do is alienate people from you.
Anonymous said... My friends for the most part are loaded. They don't worry about $4 milk or $3 gas or if their house lost $20K in value........Despite what you doomers and gloomers think, not everyone is struggling to get by. And despite what you also think, most people don't follow the price of r/e 24/7. Everyone knows housing is in the shitter now. Unless people need to sell, I doubt anyone really cares all that much. At least nobody in my world does.You don't say anything about your personal circumstances in your post. You only talk about those around you. Are you hoping that they will throw you their 2nd hand stuff? Some crumbs maybe? We don't care how well off your associates and family are. I don't think you have a pot to piss in and you are following these people around, panting for doggie biscuits, telling everyone you know how rich and important your friends are.Poor Status Junkie.
Wahhh waahhhh wahhh. So much whining on this blog. Get a job that pays more than $10 an hour and you too can afford a house.LOL That's very funny. What's even funnier is that I could actually afford these homes that are $800K. Difference between me and those that took the plunge:- I can afford it; they cannot- I'm not stupid enough to overpay; they are that stupidI imagine that if and when I choose to buy, it will be a mostly cash type of transaction.
Tyrone said...LOL That's very funny. What's even funnier is that I could actually afford these homes that are $800K. Difference between me and those that took the plunge:- I can afford it; they cannot- I'm not stupid enough to overpay; they are that stupidI imagine that if and when I choose to buy, it will be a mostly cash type of transaction.Anonymous said...My friends for the most part are loaded. They don't worry about $4 milk or $3 gas or if their house lost $20K in value........Tyrone, please don't forget the dog biscuits for Anonymous at your $800,000 cash closing, since your dog is better than his dog. Anonymous droolers should get at least 20% and licking the feet of a superior such as yourself is no easy task. Be gentleAA
Re: Anonymous said: Douchebag, no one ever said that everyone is struggling to get by or that every locality has been affected by a housing bubble. Of course people with a lot of money, a lot of equity and/or those who purchased prior to 2000 are not going to be as affected as others, however, try being a first time buyer in a bubble city at this point in time.October 21, 2007 6:28 PM-------------------------Oh, so you're another one of those self-entitled bastards who feels they deserve to live like a king because...? Not my fault you're a slacker who didn't push harder in your career - I had no trouble being a first-time buyer in this market - caught on the way down, on my terms. :P L2NotBPoor maybe?Patio looks gorgeous, planting some blue star junipers next week, and if the heat EVER breaks (mid 70s as we approach Nov!?), time to plant bulbs for the spring! :D Got powertools too, so time to do some molding and millwork over the next couple years to MY HOUSE, while you all pray and bitch and moan. :) Man, I love you guys - entertainment day or night. Now back to this obnoxious midterm.
Its quite interesting, I used to be the "idiot" that was just afraid to take a risk as prices would ONLY go up, I was sealing my financial doom by NOT following the sheep. I cant tell you how many times I was told that PRICE DOESNT MATTER. LOL LOLLong story short, I warned and warned about the coming disaster and well, now that it is upon us, NONE of my friends or family dares to even speak to me about the mess they are in.I feel bad, but this ending bad was so clear years ago...NO ONE should be surprised.
I've spent the last two years warning my prospective clients about the coming events that are now underway. I felt like chicken little, telling everyone that the sky was falling.I was able to save a couple dozen, who are now calling me and thanking me. The others (who literally told me I was full of S*&T), well let's just say they are now calling me asking me for help refinancing. I'm very sad to say, that each one now owe more than their house is worth.As for my social environment, most are still in denial, most are homeowners and RE investors. I'm getting the cold shoulder for being right. In fact, they too thought I was full of S&*T. That's fine with me. I said what I could back then to help them make the right choices. I'm not responsible for their decisions. I'm sleeping soundly.You can lead a horse to water, but you can force them to drink!
From reading the comments on this thread it's obvious that for many people, home "ownership" is *still* all about ego and vanity and bragging rights.In the real world, the only reason to feel that way is because you have nothing else going for you and are so insecure that you must play the "I own so I'm better than you" card to make your loser self feel better.Oh and this isn't about who can and can't afford to "buy" an overpriced house. Many people on this site sold at the top and are sitting on a pile of money. The point is that buying a house today that will be cheaper next year is STUPID whether you can afford it or not.
Oops! sorry, I meant to write:You can lead a horse to water, but you CAN'T force him to drink!
Agreed Frank. A few posts from people saying how their patio looks good and how the flowers are in bloom, lol, isnt going to change that fact.
I notice the trolls seem to have moved from a position of “There is no housing crash. Dopes” to “OK, There MAY be a housing crash but so what, my flowers are in bloom. Dopes” Whats next?
I was speaking to a co-worker this week. She divorced in '05, and took part of her "seven figure" real estate proceeds from her 'community estate" and bought a 600K house in Scottsdale. Now her ex, who kept their original house in the "settlement" and apprarently used its "equity" to pay her alimony is finding out he is upside down on a haous that is down at least 30% from his firts and second, and he walked away. She is now just another unsecured creditor in line with several looking for the next pament from her ex, who appears to have skipped town without trace. Moral: If you used the home eqity to finance your divorce and alimony set up it just may not be a long term payout. I have no mortage an no equity, as I am just a gypsy renter. I you don't have nothing, ya got nothing to loose. If my spouse divorced me she would have zilch, and then have to find another flat. It's funny but seemd us poor simple beggers tend to remain married. Must be something besides money invloved.
My husband and I are the last hold outs. Many of our friends bought right smack at the bubble's peak and would not listen even if we hit them over the head with a 2 by 4. In summer 05-- I would even forward articles by Christopher Thornberg (formerly of the Anderson Forecast) to get an outside source projecting the doom and gloom of unsustainable housing prices in Los Angeles.Fundamentals meant nothing to these folks, instantgratification was the ticket. After they bought, we heard snide remarks and were badgered about when we were going to buy and sympathy over not having a backyard. I can remember one woman hosting a party in 05 became very hostile when I suggested prices we due to fall hard. "COASTAL Properties Never lose their value," she said in a huff. I held my tongue knowing better.Now the same people are badgering us about WHEN we are buying now that prices are declining.They are very ANXIOUS and NAGGING about us taking the plunge to buy a home.When I stated than rather than buy a home, we will rent a house for a year or two as opposed to staying in our apt.One of my friends got very beligerent, "Are you just going to spend your time going from rental to rental are you AFRAID to buy?" I told this person, yeah and most people weren't and that is what got them into serious financial messes.Many in our circle are stretched to the hilt financiallyand hem and haw about buying a $25 ticket to a children's play. I am not sure I fully understand the psychology but there is anger, hostility, impatience and resentment toward "so called bitter rentals." I have too much class to tell them "I told you so" and I try not to be too smug, it is tempting though. Also, these folks have their kids in private school, in LA that means a minimum of 18-20 K per year. We rent in a very affluent zip code and send our kids to a great public school.We have gone in a matter of two years from being the loser family to the prudent financial saavy couple. But not all of our circle dubbs us this title, many don't say anything and change the topic when the housing market comes up.
I feel a bit better but not for ego sake or for "I told you so". I live in Nashua NH and have been frustrated by a housing markte that went up 80 percent in the bubble years. My wife knew people who bought bubble prices with ARMs two years ago. I told her one of her friends making 11 bucks an hour can't afford her 180 grand home thats old and in a crap neighborhood. She just lost the house and another friend can't afford the ARM resets. Im not happy about her misfortunes but my wife wouldn't believe my logic about afordabilityMy brother and good friend own homes that are too small and they have no hope at all of ever selling and have infant children sharing rooms with them.Foreclosures are balloning in this area and in Mass.I wondered if this was ever coing to happen here but the crash is finally hitting here. I can actaully consider owning a home for the first time since starting a family a few years ago. My wife and Mom hassled me to death to buy but I resisted and have been rewarded.I agree with a few comments here. Don't ty to put down others just to boost your own mediocre life. Everbody does this now and its so blase.
To Frank:So, when gas prices are falling, we should only put a day's worth in? Or perhaps enough to get us 1-way to work?When the stock market looks like it's going to fall, we should sell?When housing is falling and there's no idea when it's going to bottom out, we should sell?You do realize that you're encouraging the same sheep mentality that caused the housing bubble, except in reverse?Ok good, just wanted to make sure you weren't being a complete idiot and encouraging exactly the same behavior that you berrate and hate. Glad we got that straightened out.
I don't give a rats patootie "bragging rights". I drive a 14-yr-old minivan and it still runs good, and I rent.I can't understand it. You can't take the granite countertop and the stainless steel kitchen with you when you die...
Two vignettes. This week the company's VP from out of town was here, that night he took me out to dinner. He seemed interested in my career plans, and in his quest for information asked why I didn't buy a house when the company transfered me here. I said that I'm renting a $650,000 condo (today's value) for $2000 a month. VP said he'd do that all day every day, he was enthusiastic. When I was transfered and didn't buy I was called, "Chicken Little" by one member of my family. Now the only sound from that direction now is crickets.
Two of my "friends" (I use the term somewhat loosely) continually badgered me for renting during this housing runup. They, however, dived head first into the housing market using interest only loans with teaser rates.And now? Both are underwater on their homes and both are now unemployed. While I am sitting on a large cash reserve and still get paychecks.So who is laughing now?
Friggen stupid sheep homedebtors suckas!You deserve the A$%#ponding you are getting and I will buy a house on MY OWN TERMS.F*&&!
I dunno, but that picture reminds of what i call the "bubble based divorce" case at my law firm.Him: mortgage brokerHer: Realtor2001-2006 income for the community:more than $840,000!!!Assets: believe it or not, none. These idiots partied every night at the nicest restaurants, became homedebtors in 2006 (at the absolute bubble peak for my town) with just enough down to have lost it with the price drop. they dont even own their cars. PWN3DXXORRED!!!!If anybody could have seen this coming, it should have been them.
My friends tried to talk me out of selling at the peak in 2005 . I bought down at a third of the cost of the 700k home I sold .A nice man bought my last house for cash ,so at least I'm glad he had the money .I have saved a few people from making purchases ,but not as many as I would of liked to of saved . I think people in general think the corrections will be minor in nature ,but when you see houses going down 150k to 300k so far ,that is a huge amount .It's really a sad state of affairs when a person in good faith buys a house and than it crashes on them .People who bought a bunch of houses to flip get no empathy from me at all .When I found out in 2005 the type of lending that had been taking place I than knew it was going to crash . I had already sold my home and had just moved into my cheaper home on my fixed low rate loan . I bought to live in this house long term ,just as I had bought to live in my last house long term .The current area that I live in has already gone down about 15 to 20% ,but I can afford my payments and I like living here .I'm happy because one of my kids might be able to afford a house now .I am very worried about the state of affairs in America and I hope all this pain that is coming will bring some gain and needed changes to the United States .
"Oh, so you're another one of those self-entitled bastards who feels they deserve to live like a king because...? Not my fault you're a slacker who didn't push harder in your career - I had no trouble being a first-time buyer in this market - caught on the way down, on my terms. :P L2NotBPoor maybe?"Dumb ass! It costs about $500k for a piece of crap in the worst ghetto in L.A. Even 80% of current homeowners out here admit that they could never afford these prices if they had to start over. Take you self-rughteous "salcker" rhetoric and shove it up your ass, prick!
It's hard to keep denying what is so obvious.They must be just plain dumb, regardless of education or job status.Lady Di said... I live in the South Orange County, California, where prices are falling fast. I find that most homedebtors are still in denial or most likely just plain dumb
Great links borkafatty, keep em coming!
And the same goes for the bulk of my friends/family members. One other friend owns a condo he bought in 1998. He bought it right after graduating from college. It's worth 3 times what he paid. In 2005 it was probably worth 4 times. He could have sold and rented. Had he done that he could have made an extra $50K or $100K profit compared to what he'd get today. He didn't. Again because he likes where he live and quite honestly $50K or $100K is not motivation enough for him to uproot his life.Despite what you doomers and gloomers think, not everyone is struggling to get by.It really is getting very boring reading your fantasy posts. I could waste the time pointing out to you that your anecdotal tales are no indication of reality, but you lack the I.Q. and therefore lack the ability to reason. Besides, I doubt there is any truth to your claim about being "surrounded by rich friends". That's usually a fairy-tale claim of an insecure person.
Well, my friends think that I am not very smart for not buying. They bought homes for approximately 25-270 K in Chicago a few years ago. Most of them owe approximately 100k to the bank. Last year their homes were valued anywhere from 420-525k depending on location. They believe that Chicago will only experience a small drop and that I blew it.I still think that we are one major correction in the stock market(2000 point drop in a single day) away from a total meltdown in the financial markets.What do you guys think regarding prices in Chicago and northern suburbs. I haven't seen drops that are close to prices as of five years ago.
some treat me like a prophet, others want to know what i see happening next (i am in the investment biz so this is helpful), others act like i never said anything. No one criticizes me.
Honestly, House prices are gonna fall 10%-20% a year for the next decade, until those exurban houses, on both coasts, built on precious farmland are worth NOTHING.They will bulldozed. In fact there are WAY TOO many people on this blog who think that the corner is next month, or next year.What you should be worrying about today is your 401 k, because the Masters of the Universe are just about ready to empty all those accounts. Starting Monday - use it or lose it. Give your penalty to the government now, and stash it away under your mattress, or give it back to Wall Street. That's how it will go in Black October 2007.It is your choice. You can buy gold or commodities, or foreign currencies. But nothing will be safe from the decade of massive deleveraging that will go on in the world economy.Depression. That won't be the right word. We will be lucky to escape a civil war. (The lunatic right is dying to kill everyone not like them. And they have the guns and the backing of the Air Force to do it. Think Yugoslavia after Tito.)What you should do is buy farmland and start growing your own food and raising your livestock.in Canada.WE ARE DOOMED Here is the future for real estate19% interest rates (now you figure out the P/E)6 dollar gasoline (no more exurbs)No meat or dairy. ( been to Russia after the collapse? You will be living with your extended families in one house, eating a vegetarian diet, grown in your garden, if you are lucky)This blog should be called WORLDPANIC,Get your shit together people now, and don't laugh at the poor Irish who got conned. They can go back to being poor. We will be shooting our neighbors pets for food.
"FlyingMonkeyWarrior said... This depends on the age of the person I am speaking to.The young adults have no clue; others know something is afoot.......'Buy foreclosures' is the new buzz."--------------------------- That's so true, the younger generation has got to learn the hard way. most haven't got a clue and don't care anyway, after all, they're still young, indestructible and immortal. Around my older, 'in the know' friends, "Buy foreclosures" is THE topic of conversation. Nothing is a bargain yet, banks are still trying to get top dollar. They will just have to let the banks "sit, hold, and hurt" a little longer!------------------------------ "Anonymous said... If he losses $100K on this house he won't lose much sleep over it............. Unless people need to sell, I doubt anyone really cares all that much. At least nobody in my world does."---------------------------- Have to agree with at least that last part. If you like the house, the area, can afford the payments, and you don’t have to sell right now, there is no bubble. Housing values are meaningless until that check changes hands at the end of the sale! Then, and only then, do you definitely know what the place is worth.
>Patio looks gorgeous, planting some blue star junipers next week, and if the heat EVER breaks (mid 70s as we approach Nov!?), time to plant bulbs for the spring! :D Got powertools too, so time to do some molding and millwork over the next couple years to MY HOUSE, while you all pray and bitch and moan. :) Man, I love you guys - entertainment day or night. Now back to this obnoxious midterm.>Yeesh, I would be the most miserable person in the world if that was my life. Keep running on that hamster wheel...Plant, prune, plant, prune, plant, prune.....And moldwork!
How are we treated now?Neighbors have noticed that there are many Open Houses and that these are always at the same houses. They tell us that we "got out just in time!"I'm beginning to calm down now. The best buys on the market, in my zip code, are REOs that are quite a bit under the comps. There are one or two repos that I would say are good buys. Except, I think they will only become better buys. Or, if they sell, other houses will be the better buys, later.I feel good, dada dada dada da, like I knew that I would, dada dada dada da…Me? I’m just a bitter renter. :)
Happy Homedebtor said... Re: Anonymous said: Douchebag, no one ever said that everyone is struggling to get by or that every locality has been affected by a housing bubble. Of course people with a lot of money, a lot of equity and/or those who purchased prior to 2000 are not going to be as affected as others, however, try being a first time buyer in a bubble city at this point in time. October 21, 2007 6:28 PM ------------------------- Oh, so you're another one of those self-entitled bastards who feels they deserve to live like a king because...? Not my fault you're a slacker who didn't push harder in your career - I had no trouble being a first-time buyer in this market - caught on the way down, on my terms. :P L2NotBPoor maybe?Ummm...no, he did not say that HE was one of those buyers HHD. Thanks for proving once again that graduate degrees do not mean that a person is in possession of common sense.
took part of her "seven figure" real estate proceeds from her 'community estate" and bought a 600K house in Scottsdale.Nobody with seven figures moves to Scottsdale. That's the #1 proof that Scottsdale is a fake money town. Nobody with that kind of money chooses to live in the bleak hot dusty desert full of a-holes and crooked cops. Nobody.
They were a few bloggers mentioning this being a good time to buy REOs. Most definitely NOT!Just think this through with me... this is the tip of the iceberg for REOs. Inventories will balloon within 6mos to 1yr. Lenders will be having fire sales to dump their RE inventory. Just because some REOs are priced below market right now doesn't mean it is a good buy when the housing market is in decline.Besides, what is the RUSH to buy a home? Just save up your money, clean up your credit and buy in 3 to 5 years.
My in-laws were "property investors" that didn't quite understand our reason for renting. They won't be selling for a long while now, but can make their payments--so it's going to be OK for them. They have been quiet about it, but I feel more concerned than smug (I love them--just don't want them as roommates!) Am I bitter about the bubble--hell yes, but only because the prices have been driven up artificially by creative financing. No matter what happens with the market, we'll save enough and eventually buy at a price we're comfortable with. If you have the stomach/dough to buy in this market and it makes you happy, more power to you. Maybe if we start buying houses with the intention of unpacking the U-Haul and staying a while, people will take interest in their communities instead of blowing through them on the way to Home Depot for more ugly-assed 1/2 priced marble countertops.
we don't talk about the issue and I keep my viewpoint to myself. I do a fair amount of giggling in my office while I read the news (It is easier to stay out of something than to get out of something - Mark Twain) about what is happening to the credit bubble. People ask me what I was laughing about and I say "oh nothing, just the latest Marmaduke strip..."
I'm just relieved that it is actually crashing...for a while it looked like I might actually be 'priced out forever.'Seems so obvious now, and the signs were there for many years, but signs don't always tell the whole story.Looking forward to home ownership in 2011 or so. Home ownership in the true sense...i.e I own the home, the home doesn't own me.
I'm a long time HP lurker who sold my house last year and have been renting since. This site and others have been helpful to me in keeping my sanity and widening my awareness of issues in the macro economy as well. Thank you!I don't think renting means not being able to do what you want. I still live in a single family house which the proceeds from my house sale pays the rent+++(money market-not stock market).I also realize "affordability" may be a ways off. Stickiness of the r/e market so far has been fairly strong in my city and may continue for some time so I just decided to plant that beautiful garden this summer, paint those rooms the colors I liked, make some minor changes that make me happy and who cares if I won't be here in a couple years! If prices do level off and fall when I finally buy again, those relatively small expenses will likely be offset and I'll be leaving behind something for the landlord/next renter to benefit from and enjoy. Why is that a bad thing for anyone? I will have enjoyed my place to the fullest without a financial stake in the outcome. I don't care if I can't take those upgrades along, in fact, it actually makes me happy to be able to leave something better behind in my wake. Seems these days everyone has to make a profit on everything including housing when in the "old days" it was just a place to call home. Renting is a perfectly acceptable means to that end in my humble opinion. And the best part, I can move if I need to with a 30 days notice. Why this hurry and anxiety to buy now when price appreciation seeems to be losing steam? Falling dollar? Maybe.Popular opinion has always been overrated. Make your own INFORMED decision about whether now's a good time to buy and then do what makes YOU happy and accept the consequences for your own decisions,good or bad,right or wrong. Period. Good luck everybody!
Tacomabear...great post!As far as how my spouse and I are treated, most people just assume we're renting because we relocated from another part of the country and wanted to learn the area before we committed to purchasing. It's not far from the truth. Furthermore, we're happy and content and what we do with our money is nobody's business but our own. I only share my market views with my peers if asked, and I don't go looking to be treated like a prophet.
Why do you renters (or anyone else for that matter) worry about what others think about your affairs. Is that the kind of "people" you want to associate with anyways? Take some time and look at what is really important in life.
"it's hard to keep denying what is so obvious.They must be just plain dumb, regardless of education or job status."It's either greed or denial. In the case of a co-worker greed. He's at the retirement age and was planning on leaving last fall and moving back to Ohio and spend his retirement years with his son and grandchildren. He was asking 185k for his condo (bought for 60k) but the best he was offered was 170k and he wasn't willing to take it. Now he's wishing he took it because a year later he can't get anything close to 170k and it's only going to continue to drop in value and he's not moving any time soon.
*** INSIDE INFO ***According to a mortgage broker manager, who works for CHASE BANK...NEW FHA RULES kick in Nov 1, 07 which will let anyone who was in good standing before thier ARM reset, refi at 6 to 7 percent rate on 30 year fixed at 98% LTV. THIS includes subprime folks with 500 to 600 credit scores. UN-FREKING BELIEVABLE!!!!THIS IS HOW YOU SPELL --- GOVERNMENT BAILOUT. The Taxpayers have been bent over... HEY where's the lube?
If it wasnt for renters then you trolls would be having to pony up for your ENTIRE mortgage. You should be kissing my bitter renter arse rather than trying to troll it :)
I have been in the situation in the past few years where several acquaintances of mine announced that they bought a house. I didn't know what to say, so I said nothing. "You f@#$*in' IDIOT!" wouldn't have done any good if they already bought it. (Now if they were "thinking of" buying a house, that'd be different!)One woman I knew in Minneapolis was a realtor for a while, then quit that job and now works for Fedgov.As for my friends 'n family... they all have a high IQ like mine, and are fully aware of what's going on. I haven't had to go Mogambo Guru on any of them, thankfully.
my coworkers are still in denial- they say- I just listened to the news today, and they said that housing in honolulu is not going down.my father in law says buy buy buy, home prices will only go up.my brother in law is trying to buy an overpriced house because his current overpriced pos was bought in the ghetto. everyone is smoking crack....STILL
> Do some research on whether foreclosures count as sales??> The answer will surprise you.Foreclosures are sales, but they are not arm's length sales, so they don't count in sales statistics. Other non-arm's length sales are sales from parents to children, in which non-economic consideration can affect the "price" the sellers demands. The interesting question is not if a sales statistics includes foreclosure auctions (it shouldn't) but if it includes selling REOs, through auctions and through negotiations. I think that they should be counted, but I have heard both that they are counted and that they are not counted. Does anybody know more specifics?
tLr7t5 actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.
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