October 17, 2007

HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day



Will the Roaring 00's and the Roaring 20's be forever linked (and followed by Great Depressions?)

33 comments:

Ed said...

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nah. the 20s and 00s are night and day. In the 20s there was no FDIC, no SEC, no welfare, no social security, medicare etc

There will be arecession but we will never see a 1930s style economic downturn, there are too many safety nets for that to happen

Anonymous said...

Both 00s and 20s had massive Florida real estate booms and then busts

The 20s version led to the Depression

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

nah. the 20s and 00s are night and day. In the 20s there was no FDIC, no SEC, no welfare, no social security, medicare etc

There will be arecession but we will never see a 1930s style economic downturn, there are too many safety nets for that to happen

October 17, 2007 3:58 PM

I want whatever you are taking. ROFLMAO!

CadorBolin said...

Great Depression II will be a lot worse than the first one.

1. There won't be any money available to pay for the social safety net. Oh, it will be paid in US$ but it's already established that it's becoming more worthless than old Chinese newspapers.

2. In the 1930s, the US was 90% European. Now it is much more "diverse"--prepare for race wars.

3. WW2 followed the Great Depression. In WW3, you have several nations armed with nuclear weapons.

Mammoth said...

“Will the Roaring 00's and the Roaring 20's be forever linked (and followed by Great Depressions?)”
----------------
Many posts on HP draw a parallel thread between today and the situation leading up to the Great Depression.

Noting that there were some savvy investors who did well during this very difficult time, it would be great to learn what they did, and how they positioned themselves for success while the house of cards was collapsing all around them.

Is anybody, who has a bit of time, willing to perform some research on these successful folks and post the findings here?

Also, opinions are like @$$holes because everybody has one, but what are your comments on bits & pieces of advice that keep reappearing on HP such as:
- Buy gold & silver to preserve wealth
- Buy energy stocks & funds
- Get out of Debt
- Convert your dollars into another currency
- Save and live below your means

-Mammoth

Boom2Bust.com said...

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." -Mark Twain

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Mammoth said...
“Will the Roaring 00's and the Roaring 20's be forever linked (and followed by Great Depressions?)”
----------------
Many posts on HP draw a parallel thread between today and the situation leading up to the Great Depression.

Noting that there were some savvy investors who did well during this very difficult time, it would be great to learn what they did, and how they positioned themselves for success while the house of cards was collapsing all around them.

Is anybody, who has a bit of time, willing to perform some research on these successful folks and post the findings here?

Also, opinions are like @$$holes because everybody has one, but what are your comments on bits & pieces of advice that keep reappearing on HP such as:
- Buy gold & silver to preserve wealth
- Buy energy stocks & funds
- Get out of Debt
- Convert your dollars into another currency
- Save and live below your means

-Mammoth

October 17, 2007 4:17 PM

Remembering that history rhymes, but doesn't necessarily repeat, mining stocks during the Depression did very well indeed.

A list of sectors would be very helpful. We can take all ideas and toss what may not pertain to today's environment. We HPer's were well ahead of the sheeple on the credit/housing debacle and plenty of money is yet to be made. Let the "kick their ass" game begin!

Market Ticker mentioned a finance company that finances yahts and open fisherman. Expensive Boats. They took a big hit on earnings. It's stocks like these that are ripe for the picking. Let's make some more freakin' money :>)!

LauraVella said...

nah. the 20s and 00s are night and day. In the 20s there was no FDIC, no SEC, no welfare, no social security, medicare etc


In the 1920's, Wall Street wasnt selling all "debt" packaged as "assets", either...

Anonymous said...

There's so much plastic in that first photo, I don't know where to start.

Anonymous said...

Yes, and also one spectacular stock market crash

Anonymous said...

The Dow will be 13.9 someday!

Dopes

stoopid rentures

borkafatty said...

But also remember the Dollar was actually worth something during the depression, it was the so called credit markets that were junk.

Today the dollar is worth shit...so as the saying goes we are in uncharted territory.

borkafatty said...

Keith this is some scary shit..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/
main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/16/bcnchina116.xml

Anonymous said...

DONE DEAL

Anonymous said...

Over on Swann's blog they are congratulating themselves for lowering prices on their listings and explaining to clients that "you didn't just lose $68K, you never had it to begin with, your house is *worth* what the market will pay for it."

Ron said...

Learn to play this game, I bet it might come in handy.

http://tinyurl.com/2sfmc2

Oh and umm...yeah is there a chance yes, I would put recession at 100% and depression at ??%.

Anonymous said...

Some answers:

My mother's family made an absolute fortune in Seattle Wa. primarily by tearing down new buildings (built during the roaring 20'S) that were never occupied and selling the pieces/components overseas.

They also made a mini-fortune in stocks in the 30's in companies related to locks, security services, dog food ( a lot of people started eating it), liquor and bus companies (many people could no longer afford personal
cars).

As to the comment about Wall Street in the 20's? Many, many small town Americans lost BILLIONS of dollars in German bonds sold in the 20's and 30's by the Harriman Brothers and the Dulles brothers and the Grand Father of George Bush - Prescott Bush who was an enthusiastic supporter of Hitler and all he stood for and helped
fund the Nasiz!!!!!!!!!!

In fact George's grandfather just missed being charged of and tried for treason. Companies Prescott and the Dulles brothers and the Harriman brothers owned or controlled continued to do business with the Hitler's Nazi Germany 1 1/2 to 2 years after declaration of War in Dec 1941!!!!!!!

President Truman called their actions "Nothing short of Treason!"

They missed going to jail for life or being shot by the skin of their teeth.

All of the above is archived and now available on the New York Times historical archive!!!!!!!!!

ace said...

i wonder if the gal in the first photo got a sub prime or Alt A loan on her makeover...No my guess she just put it on her Credit card...

Anonymous said...

Keefer must have predicted a depression on October 19, 1987 as well. Now the DOW is 7 times higher than on that day.

Oh and where's gold? It was $460 in 1987 it is $750 today.

So you could have made a 70% profit listening to Keefer. Or made a 700% profit doing what normal people do....invest in stocks.

Anonymous said...

Just sitting here imagining 1930's conditions(massive unemployment, financial system collapse, tent cities) superimposed on todays cities, with the much larger population etc. I'm not coming up with a very pretty picture.

Halifax said...

For background, read the essay "Can "It" Happen Again?", by Hyman Minsky, of "Ponzi finance" and "Financial Instability Hypothesis" fame. He suggests that "It" (i.e., Great Depression) will not occur because of the size of the Federal government; rather, we can look forward to something a bit different (Weimar?). You can get the book through an interlibrary loan; the last Internet copy sold for US$1,500.

Bill in AZ said...

"ed" said this:
nah. the 20s and 00s are night and day. In the 20s there was no FDIC, no SEC, no welfare, no social security, medicare etc

There will be arecession but we will never see a 1930s style economic downturn, there are too many safety nets for that to happen


Gong! Yeah, right - different this time!
a) About FDIC: what is really the difference between then and now? Think very hard about this one.
b) SEC: huh?

"borkafatty" said this:
But also remember the Dollar was actually worth something during the depression, it was the so called credit markets that were junk.

Today the dollar is worth shit...so as the saying goes we are in uncharted territory.


Bingo!

Also, baby boomers are retiring, and therefore spending a lot less, and therefore DIRECTLY slowing the economy.

Also, a housing & credit Ponzi scheme MUCH worse than anything in the 20's.

Also, SS in trouble.

Also, China owns us.

Most of what was wrong in '29 is in place again, plus quite a bit more. We are truly on a precipice, and just like in '29, most are oblivious.

For those who doubt the seemingly ubiquitous delusion of the common citizen, consider what just happened this past July & August: the stock market and economy in general were on the brink of a meltdown. This was due to some very real and very proliferated fundamental problems. Then suddenly the Fed jumped on the stage and waved its credit wand, and instantly everything was ok.

Now I ask, "Is a 0.5% change in the federal funds rate really all there is between prosperity and calamity?"

An economy sent to the brink of extinction by irresponsible fiscal policy and cheap credit is cured by... cheapening credit! Brilliant! Get your heads out of the sand.

You can call this kind of talk "sensational" and dismiss it as "Chicken Little" philosophy, etc. But these are just realities, and the onus of proof is on those who deny realities, not on those who point them out.

Anonymous said...

The China EFT (FXI) was up 9.77% today.

Keith, may be time to register

www.chinapanic.com

pwnd

Anonymous said...

October 17, 2007 (LPAC)--The super conduit, the latest proposal for a multi-billion dollar fund to bail out the world's failing banks, is nothing but a collection of the current conduits that are bankrupt, writes Wolfgang Muenchau, editorialist of the German-language edition of the Financial Times.

The scheme is based on alleged guarantees by the big U.S. banks, he writes, "but one has to pose the question, what the guarantee of, let's say, Citibank is still worth." In the end, the taxpayer will be forced to pay.

"The entire thing resembles a ponzi scheme," Muenchau writes, and it will lead to grave turbulenes, globally.

Anonymous said...

Buy Fastfood companies, Tobacco Companies, and alcohol producers

Anonymous said...

People, we are riding atop a razors edge right now. Get your house in order while you still can. There is some historic sh!t going on right before our eyes. Have you ever read the sunshine they were pumping up peoples a$$ in 1929 right before the market crashed? Sound familiar from the MSM these days? But as they say; as long as JSP keeps spending, we will be OK. There is a lot riding on Joe, I hope he doesn`t find out or he is likely to panic.

Anonymous said...

The Great Depression hit Florida a few years early - the Real Estate Boom went bust in 1926 and plunged the state into a depression, so that when things went bad for everybody else in the U.S. in 1929 onward, Florida hardly noticed.

Anonymous said...

I think the next depression will come around 2012. We will have just gotten into a pretty darn good recession, and then the baby boomers will start to retire. Suddenly 1/3 the population will start drawing social security and pensions all at once. For you non-HPer's that mean massive selling of stocks to get cash for income. The stock market will start to fall, people will panic- it will crash and perhaps we shall see the next depression.

Anonymous said...

If people don't believe a depression is possible, then they should do their own research on the subject. The parallels between
them are astounding but to say there will be soup lines is stretching it.

There are some good interviews
of people who actually lived through these hard times, the majority say that the spending lifestyle we have today seems like the 20's.

Anonymous said...

Every 40 years the USA gets economically/socially/politically bitch slapped. Each bitch slapping last for about a 10 year period.

1930 + 40 yrs = 1970. 1970 + 40 yrs = 2010 decade. We're due for an economic recession as least as bad as the 1970s in 3 yrs. Probably by 2013 at the latest.

Credit is going to be hard to come by. Prices will be high. Wages won't keep up. Inflation won't do you any good if you don't have a job to pay off your debts. I would strongly recommend in the next 6 years to get out of debt and build up savings. You need to weather a 10 year period. The Federal government is going to try to inflate liabilities and debt away. I wouldn't sock alot of money in U.S. dollars (purchasing power will plummet). Need to protect yourself by having 10 yrs of expenses in precious metals and foreign currencies (maybe 50/50 mix). I would get a diesel vehicle or motorcycle/scooter too. Gasoline is going to go through the roof in dollar terms. Diesel has to stay reasonable otherwise trucking stops in the U.S. and it's lights out, game over for the USA. For grocery shopping a motor scooter with a small trailer will be awesome. Would look at adding solar panels to your residence to help defray electric costs. A wood burning or wood chip stove can help during the winter. Foreign goods are going to get expensive as U.S. dollar goes down. Go to the Dollar Store now and stock up on all the cheap foreign stuff (e.g., razors, batteries, pens, paper). Buy low, sell high. LOL

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I think the next depression will come around 2012. We will have just gotten into a pretty darn good recession, and then the baby boomers will start to retire. Suddenly 1/3 the population will start drawing social security and pensions all at once. For you non-HPer's that mean massive selling of stocks to get cash for income. The stock market will start to fall, people will panic- it will crash and perhaps we shall see the next depression.

October 18, 2007 2:55 AM

The depression started around 1970-1971 period and it's only gotten worse. People have not prospered instead they have taken on massive debt.

Mammoth said...

"Have you ever read the sunshine they were pumping up peoples a$$ in 1929 right before the market crashed?"
-----------------------
Its the hilarious comments such as these, as well as the blunt & sensible advice such as what is on this thread, that keeps me coming back to HP for more.

Tom said...

Can we have a deflationary cycle with a weak fiat dollar