The Housing Crash is a 9-inning baseball game. What inning are we in?
October 15, 2007
HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Day
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72 comments:
I'd say we are at the top of the 7th inning and it's a tied game, looks like there could be extra innings.
Just went into the 2nd inning
Lots of hits so far and gonna be a humdinger
top of the 3rd but with the way things are going they may wan't to repeat the 2nd inning.
Bottom of the third with 2 outs. The score is 5-0, Realtors are are getting creamed by The Panic. Realtors already pulled their starting pitcher but the reliever is struggling. It is not looking good for The Realtors, but the cheerleaders are rooting for a late rally.
But we have a lot of game left to play.
as satyajit das said the other day, we've just finished the national anthem. this is going to get so much worse.
2nd
I don't know about which inning the Housing panic is in, I am a golf and B Ball fan.What I do know is some of the decisions that were made to bring the economy where it is now were out in left field.
Now, the tsunami metaphor sez the water has just been sucked way out and the beach goers are standing around looking at the sand, which moments ago was the ocean bottom and they are asking what is going on.
The smart ones are running for high ground.
Starting 3rd inning. I expect the great unwinding to last 5-7 years ending at about 2011.
Look how long it took the stock market to bottom in 2000-2002 and 1929-1932 (both about 2 1/2 yrs.) Housing is far less liquid. I expect this adjustment to be 2 to 3 times the duration.
3rd.
Last inning ended in a stalemate between the buyers and sellers with only the Realtors loosing out.
National Anthem?
Marky Mark
I have to agree with most people we are in the 3rd inning and this is going to be a long baseball game. I am working to make sure i can get a beer and peanuts for this long afternoon!
Depends upon how you want to start counting the beginning of the game.
I'd say if you start with peak 05 then based upon the current drop I'd say we are somewhere b/t the 3 to the 5th inning. The game is not going well for REIC and they are replacing alot of players to see if that will solve the problem. They are very confused because in previous games they won handedly. So now the championship team, while concerned, they still think that they can pull out a win once the replacements from the bench get into the game and become more effective. In another year when they are running low on the roster and they are in disbelief that what they've thrown at it has had zero effect then we'll see the real late inning collapse and scramble/desperation but have no options but to finish the game and take the massive loss!!!
National Anthem is also my vote.
3rd - Long way to go yet - better get more popcorn.
Come on HP's let's do the "wave".
4th inning
correction started fall of '05, prices will cease declining and will stabilize by late '09/ early '10
Baseball sucks.
End of the 2nd...
the gal singing the national anthem forgot the last line. Let the game begin.
I have my beer
If the game started at the inception of the bubble, we are at the bottom of the 5th, with REIC leading HP 35 to 2. Ouch.
Unfortunately for REIC, all of their players overdosed on steroids and went into shock in the middle of the inning. Their new team doctor, Bubbles Bernanke, is trying to fix the problem by juicing them up some more.
It's not working, and REIC is now playing from their wheelchairs and gurneys.
Yup we are still in the bottom of the 2nd inning, The ARM resets are still resetting up until December of this year...Then another major reset kicks in, in the month of May 08..So the drop in foreclosures for the month of September is only a temporary thing...Sad but true story..
My thing is where are all these people moving to??
bottom of the 2nd.
But many people think it's the 7th inning stretch.
http://tinyurl.com/yu72zn
CNBC on how the polls may have been hacked.
The MSM really does not like Ron Paul.
Keith,
Maybe you could email them and explain how the scientific polls suck.
politicalcapital@cnbc.com
Third. I hope it doesn't rain. Let's get this over with.
top of the second inning-
As we recall,in the 1st inning with Bernanke on the mound ,Nobody out,bases loaded,and up to the plate comes Joe Real-
Replay-Bernanke ready,and the pitch,It's wild Pitch!All the way to the backstop!CDOs come home!MBS comes home,and Angelo is just beside himself.Greenspan is coming the Plate to check on The Helicopter.The Ace says he's OK ,and they'll leave him in.
.
3rd and 6
.
Assuming you're talking about the end of the game (IE bottom of the 9th) being when the recovery starts, people talking about the national anthem are tools. We're around the 6th inning.
National anthem: Fall '05 - "D00d...wtf, I cant' get 10% more for this place than I paid last week?!?"
First inning: Spring '06 - "My house isn't sold? But it went on the MLS 10 minutes ago - I should've had 4 offers by the time i flushed!"
Second inning: End of summer '06 - "Stuff's selling so slow...must be a blip, it'll pick up in the fall. Reality you say? What's that?"
Third inning: Fall '06 - "Wait...prices are falling on some indexes/some places? Glut of condos? LIES!"
Fourth inning: Winter '06 - early Spring '07 - "It's looking like things are gonna shoot up as soon as builders burn off that inventory!"
Fifth inning: Spring - Summer '07 - "Subprime? Housing prices built on lies? 6-12 months to sell if I can sell? *Some* areas down 10-30% where there's no jobs and the commutes suck ass? NOOOOOO!"
Sixth inning: Summer '07 - ??? - "My jumbo loan adds another 1 to 1.5% to my rate?! I have to put money down and have credit and income and shit? WTF!? What do you mean my 750K house that's a 2-3 hour commute to DC is now 500K because people want to sleep/see their families!? Gas exploding what!? What's this about foreclosures and resets?"
We're in the 6th inning, but life is returning to the mortgage markets, people are slowly testing the waters. It could be the dead cat bounce, but when loans start becoming a bit more realistically available we'll have entered the 7th inning.
7th Inning "stretch": Will encompass all of the coming resets and foreclosures, inventory will peak, prices will bottom, true investors that actually know their asses from their elbows will jump in.
8th Inning: Prices will scrape along the bottom, inventory will gradually be worked off, prices will go horizontal or up at a rate BELOW inflation, figure this will start late '08
9th Inning: Prices will show signs of life, reality will return - houses will take 2-6 months to sell. Schools, location, crime, etc will matter. Presentation/curb appeal will matter. Prices will begin to rise closer to the rate of inflation eventually matching it +/- 1%. Prices in markets with some sort of fundamentals or that weren't overly bubbalicious will return to their NON-INFLATION-ADJUSTED peaks. Expect this to happen late 2010/early 2011.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ the above is how it will play out, guaranteed - barring "Oh yeah, we just got nuked, our bad". But the timeline is subject to revision - I'm usually late or early on my predictions time-wise, but pretty accurate as to what happens.
Housing will not match the inflation-adjusted peaks of 2005 in our lifetimes on the whole, perhaps random markets/pockets that are suddenly viable for whatever reason may (IE in Iowa, it's discovered that there's 100B barrels of oil and prices explode due to the rush of people to support the new industry - for example)
National Anthem?
Beginning of the nation anthem. Peak oil, climate change, water shortages, dollar crash, all have yet to enter the picture. With the shrub throwing out the first pitch coming up, I'd say we're all friggin' doomed for certain.
2nd inning. This is going to be bad. Real Bad. We are going to have to scrap the current system it is so indebted. I've actually started accumulating gold and silver. And not the ETF or paper versions.
Folks, this isn't about housing; it's about debt and lots of it.
top o' the the 2nd inning
THIRD INNING
It's the 4th inning, the sitution is 3rd and long, and one man is in the penalty box. And soccer sucks.
3rd.
My thing is where are all these people moving to??
----------------------------------
My apartment complexes, if they are lucky. Oh wait, I have no vacancy and haven't had any in over 18 months. time to raise rents, again.
Anonymous said...
http://tinyurl.com/yu72zn
CNBC on how the polls may have been hacked.
The MSM really does not like Ron Paul.
General Electric doesn't like Ron Paul. Corporate government is afraid of Ron Paul. He doesn't speak for them.
How's about a Rocky vs. Apollo from Rocky II comparison?
Round 5. Let's get it on!
Anonymous said...
http://tinyurl.com/yu72zn
CNBC on how the polls may have been hacked.
The MSM really does not like Ron Paul.
They better start learning to like him. Around my town the only 08 presidential campaign posters I've seen in front yards and along roads have ALL been for Ron Paul. I'm not a huge Ron Paul fan, I'm just reporting what I see.
Inning? In the New York metro area it feels like we're still standing in line to buy tickets. So far, the stock market doesn't know there is anything happening that will hurt the economy.
Gold to da MOOOOOOOON Alice!!!!!!
2nd maybe 3rd
go ROCKIES!
Rosanne just sang the national anthem. Lots of booing....
The gnashing of teeth will start as the banks will steal all the players, balls, even the bases and scurry off before the bottom of the first
The uniformed security guys (ex-Blackwater) will lock the doors behind everyone. Will quickly become like Superdome during Katrina.
Welcome to the United States of Alt-A !!!
King of the Bitter Renters
I dunno 'cuz I was busy buying hot dogs, big gulps, and nachos for my huge American fat ass.
I'm with Borkafatty on this one..where ALL the foreclosure families moving to, anyway?
We're no farther than the top of 3rd, I think.
That this is a whole new real estate world still hasn't sunk in for millions of sellers, still glued to "Flip That House."
National Anthem, but it was sung by Roseanne Barr and the crowd was left feeling uneasy ... Game on
We're at the tail gate party before the game has even started.
Look at the graphs, we are at the peak just starting the decline and now we are starting to see the ramifications of retards in control. This is the top of the 1st - the stage is set the players are picked and we are moving into the 2nd inning. This will also go to extra innings.
The manager's just exchanged line up cards at home plate. As Vin Scully would say "Well hi everybody...."
I'd say inning number one. What the hell are they doing in Washington? Authorizing the construction of MORE HOUSES???? WTF????!!!!
>National Affordable Housing Trust Fund Act of 2007 - Vote Passed (264-148, 19 Not Voting)
The House passed legislation founding the National Affordable Housing Trust Fund within the United States Treasury to assist in the building of affordable housing for low-income families.
3rd, but it's a double-header
I would say we are in the bottom of the third but there will be much more action in the latter innings.
In the first two innings not all players were involved. Players like Seattle and Portland were not in the game.
Now in the bottom of the third almost all the players are in the game so the game should have much higher scoring. Maybe some players like Sacramento or Stockton will get thrown out.
Might end up being a very ugly game.
When you're down sixteen to one, the inning doesn't matter. You just play out the remaining innings in humiliation and go home.
The real question is what do you do tomorrow. Trade players? Fire the manager? Bring up somebody from the farm team? Sell the franchise?
The government is supposed to help maintain order in the financial markets. It has ignored and even helped foster the present state of disorder. What steps will it take to prevent a recurrence?
We're five innings after David Lereah threw out the first pitch.
We're three innings after the e-coli hotdog went down the gullet.
We're two innings after the ace blew his arm out in a screwball.
Last inning, the Beijing Blasters waxed Team USA's runners in a wicked triple play.
Previous out, team mascot Professor Benny gave away 50 free Crackerjacks to everybody in the luxury boxes.
George Steinbrenner just tried to fire the umpire.
We're two innings before the bomb goes off in the dugout.
We're two innings and 17 minutes before Homeland Security forfeits the World Series.
The home field is REIC's. The Fed are the umpires. Bubbleheads are ahead in the 3rd inning. REIC got an inside homerun with their CDO purchase bail out plan.
BTW: I dislike baseball.
3rd
definitely early in the game, you can tell since all the Realtor fans still have hope they can win this one. But once the heart of the lineup comes to bat (the majority of ARM resets followed by the Fed moving interests rates up to stabilize the dollar) the end of this silly game will be clear.
Always study history since it always happens again, in one form or another.
I think its the 4th inning.
If this were Japan, then it would be the 1st inning.
The baseball game hasn't even started yet, we are in the middle of sining the national anthem!!!
...Oh say can you see...
This is precisely where we are at in this 'game'. The first line of the national anthem...
Let the game begin already.
3rd inning.
2nd
The Mexican...
I think we are in the bottom of the 7th inning...The fans have seen that their team doesn't have a chance to win and the game is almost over so they are starting to leave...However, the Feds have decided to pass a law to extend baseball games to 12 innings.
oh say can you see.
We're still waiting at the stadium parking lot having a tailgate party two hours before the game starts. The 1st quarter of 2008 is the first inning and so forth. The game will be over after the 1st quarter of 2010 unless the government decides to get involved and drag it out another 10 years. Enjoy the hotwings, burgers and beer.
you guys ready for hillary healthcare? She says there is no reason why our national healthcare can't be as good as the UKs:
http://tinyurl.com/yt54km
Its just an adjustment! Its 3rd ining what is hillarious is talking to people selling condos in Miami and Vegas--stupid fucks. Don;t you know that thousands of people are secretly comming in from overseas to buy condos in Miami and Vegas. I mean who would not want to live among the fascinating creatures denizened in this great cities.....Ha, ha , ha. Yes 600k for a Miami condo....ha, ha O.K. even for half price how many of you would live in these shitholes?
no recovery predicted until at least 2009, but the dems want to reward the gamblers.
BOSTON - U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the nation’s biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.
Some lawmakers, mostly Democrats, have been pressing regulators to allow Freddie and Fannie to increase their holdings of mortgage debt by 10 percent above the current limits of $735 billion.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21314212/
What's an inning? Abner Doubleday has yet to invent the game.
There's a long way to go in this Great Unwinding.
It's the second inning, but Eric Gagne is already warming up in the bullpen for the realtors. Be scared. Be very scared!
Eric Gagne has a broken ARM-HAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!
Well Bob ,I think the Helicopter is settling down after that rocky second inning,allowing nearly 600 billion earned FRNs to go poof,and staving off a near catastrophe when the the Bronx Prowler (Dow Jones) made that blunder at second base,but recovered before too much damage was done.
Yeah Vinny,but lets be honest here,the only way NewYork,and the Fed wins this game is if World War 3 breaks out.
Just listen to that crowd folks,it's as if someone stole the Christmas tree on christmas morning-a deafening silence,and not a bright eye in the house.The HPrs seem to be having a moment of silence as if the Realtards,Bankers,and New York Brokers are all praying for a miracle.
Well I'dth thay sthfooeyee on this pos world theries.The Bankers thuck bayadd,and what time is it?screw thiths,leths gedowwdahere.
Don't know--I refuse to go because the idiotic scalpers insist on asking $50 for upper tier obstructed view, despite the fact that the price on the tickets clearly read $25. Around the third or fourth inning, once they get desperate enough, I'll offer them $20 and enjoy the game on my terms.
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