October 08, 2007

Countrywide Mortgage Death Pool - Anyone want to guess how many billions of losses CFC will pre-announce next week (after Angelo dumps more shares)?

How big will the write-down be?
When will it be announced?

Note - Orangelo Mozilo is going to be dumping more shares on the open market this week. So look for the horrific news to be delayed until week after next. And note - similar to Angelo, I'm short on CFC stock - but via Oct puts.

Countrywide's Mozilo Selling More Stock

Countrywide Chairman and CEO Angelo Mozilo will unload an unspecified number of his struggling company's shares next week as part of a pre-arranged trading plan.

Countrywide, the nation's largest lender, has been slammed as a spike in defaults of subprime mortgages left investors scared of buying its loans on the secondary market. Its stock has been cut by more than half since reaching a 52-week high of $45.26 in late January.


Debbie said...

Keith, I have a question. You have written you are short CFC via October puts. I'm curiuos, when did you buy those puts? How long agao were you able to see the writing on the wall?

Anonymous said...

$10 Billion and 10,000 more layoffs

Fat_Umpa_Lumpa said...

15 Billion / sold to another company

*Stock sold before price drop
*Price falls
*Buy back stock
*company bought out
*Stock price rises again


Anonymous said...

...sorry, you did (I need to read better)

Anonymous said...

Yes, the stock must be up over 20 USD for Orangzilo to exercise his options. He's been having to hold this dog of a stock for over a month now. He breathed a sigh of relief when the fed cut rates in the hopes that a general market rally will lift it up over 20 USD before he must announce the multi-billion dollar write-down CFC suffered this quarter. Look for the 5+ billion write down to be chump change after CFC announced and spooks the market into reality again that the bubble burst & credit crunch damage is deep and here to stay for awhile. Then CFC & the markets go down hard this time and stay down. This "rally" is simply a bull trap and nothing else.

Anonymous said...

It's gonna be Immediate SEC-Investigation big

Joon said...

I did a rough count of the shares that are going to go up for sale and in my estimation it looks like this:

According to the LA Times, he has two stock plans. The one that's expiring this month calls for a sale of 350k a month.

There is another plan put into place on Dec 12 for an additional 230k a month. This adds up to the 580k monthly figure.

Assuming the second plan also spans a year, we won't be dealing with it in the next week. But clearly he has shares that were to be sold in August, Sept, and October, which adds up to:

(August est.) 170k+ 350+350+ 870k shares in the next five days, roughtly 200k a day, for a total of roughly 16mil$ at current prices.

In December, assuming he's got the same provisions set up for his other plan, he'll be dumping another million - assuming CFC's still around.

To add to the ominous state of CFC, they've postponed their investor event:

TO NOVEMBER 12, 2007

Countrywide Financial Corporation has rescheduled its annual Investor Forum to November 12, 2007 instead of the previously scheduled days of Sept. 5-6, 2007. The new date falls after the announcement of Countrywide's third quarter financial results and after the completion of the Company's annual strategic planning process. Details of the rescheduled event, including time, location and format, will be provided in the near future.

We look forward to your participation at our November event. "

Those November puts are starting to look pretty enticing...

Joon said...

By the way, 200k a day is about 4% of the daily volume recently (10m).

Let's see what kind of movement this causes. 9:30 is fast approaching!

smitty said...

don't know and none of my predictions are usually right except for thinking there would be a housing bust.

but I do know that they hired a damage control team so things should be really interesting.

Anonymous said...

The PR company CW hired is the same PR company that is handling the Blackwater killing spree in Iraq.


Anonymous said...

You can only spend so much in jail.

MassBubbleGirl said...

From what I have heard, it's also the same PR Co. used by Tylenol when poisin was found in their pills.

keith said...

HP'er Seth Jayson at Fool throws Mozilo under the bus again

Mozilo Forced to Dump More Countrywide
By Seth Jayson

CEO Angelo Mozilo seems to like to cultivate a no-holds-barred image. Of course, this is easier to do when you have an ex-football player do the shouting, while your typical interview schedule involves sitting under the soft focus filter and fielding fluffballs from Maria Bartiromo.

On Friday, after market close, Mozilo lived up to the oiliest of Wall Street standards of conduct by trying to drop the hard truth into the news wire while everyone's ordering drinks. In this little after-hours press release, the Countrywide CEO warns the investing world that, once again, he'll be dumping shares of his company -- just as he's asking employees to take loyalty oaths.

Not to worry, folks. Poor Angelo has to sell. It's part of his 10b-5 plan. The fact that he entered into this second stock-exit plan less than a year ago, after he'd already dumped enormous piles of Countrywide, and just as sub-prime was beginning to really crack, well, all that means nothing regarding his opinion for the long-term health of the company he built.

Here's the verbiage: "The upcoming sales are driven by rules within the 10b5-1 Plan that were established long ago, and should in no way be viewed as any indication of my future outlook for Countrywide."

Right-o, Angelo. And while we're at it, we'll just pretend those major mortgage-linked losses at Citigroup (NYSE: C), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) represent the end of the agony. Certainly the last of it. Housing's gotta be out of the woods by now, right? I'm sure everything will be fine from here on out.

Anonymous said...

ACRON, activist group, demonstrating outside CW offices.

Can a company get any lower?

Heard the employees had to lock the doors.

We need a pic of this!