How do we know? Because we can look back on the lazy days of Denial as if it were a million years ago.
Simpler times, yes they were. Ignorant realtors were calling HP'ers "chicken littles" and "brown shirts". Sheeple were still out buying homes thinking they were appreciating. David Lereah and the NAR were putting out numbers without anyone laughing. Crisp and Cole weren't yet under FBI investigation. 61,000 Countrywide employees thought they had stable jobs.
Ah, but those days of Denial are over. Fear is here. And there's even a sprinkling of HousingDESPERATION in the air. And then, as we all know and expect, HousingPANIC. It hath been foretold.
September 13, 2007
When it comes to the Great Housing Crash and Mortgage Meltdown, without question, the United States has now moved to HousingFEAR stage
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I do think that we are still in denial. Fear will knock on the door in a few months.
This is proof they are still in DENIAL
http://tinyurl.com/35hj7b
Nope... Still in denial here in Philly. I forwarded some housing news onto some fellow investors and their response was. "Foreclosures are down this month in Philly... What are you going to say now Chicken Little?"
So far they don't get it. Today I passed around info on the flaming dollar and they just went "So what..."
So sad... They just don't get it until it's shoved up their A**...
I'm predicting Spring 08 before fear hits. They're already saying "Summer's over... Nothing sells in winter..."
If people are still in denial even with the massive amount of news out there about this meltdown, then yes, people are even dumber than I thought they were
What, is America's Top Model back on TV again?
Still in denial, but finally moving from denial into fear. Denial b/c many houses around here are not selling, but prices are not being reduced enough. Fear because inventory (total and based on previous months sales) is still rising and the August credit blowup definitely took a toll on confidence.
It seems to me that the cycle is playing out year-by-year. 2005-2006 (Euphoria to Anxiety), 2006-2007 (Anxiety to Denial), 2007-2008 (Denial to Fear), etc.
If the pattern holds, 2008 should bring the 1st exciting stage for HPers. Full blown fear moving slowly into desperation. That should be the time when prices really begin to drop and denial (with all of its msm positive hope spin and inventory buildup with very little price declines) will finally be in the rearview mirror. Hopefully.
Fear is knocking on the door. It's just not being answered.
It's easy to see now that we were WAY off base a few months ago for even wondering if we were in fear.
I must disagree w/ the "still in denial" posts. Maybe those who do not have impending doom hovering overthem are still in denial, but many a failed fliptard turned floplord clearly are in FEAR here in NOVA. I've been looking for a place to rent and figured I'd try a private LL. They are all desperate but greedy. They list a "rent" but then want you to pay a move in fee, the HOA/Condo fees, huge repair deductibles etc etc etc. The places are a mess, not clean, not upgraded and your like why would I pay you this much rent (including all the BS fees) for something your not taking care of? Then another property comes up in the same community at a lower rent, more space, no BS fees, and its clean and updated. Why? Its a pre-bubble owner LL who can generate positive cash flow w/ a single low rent and is not hurting so they can afford to make the place presentable. But you have to act fast when the good ones come up, because everyone pounces, while the bubble buyer floplords' properties languish on the market vacant.
I've decided to rent with a professionally managed property (this does not include private LL's who farm it out to a real estate agency) take the incentives they offer and wait this one out for at least 3 years. The fliptards dug themselves a whole by not budging on price, now by playing the same game as a rental they are just throwing dirt on themselves, I do not want to get involved at all with THEIR problem. I was not going to catch their knife as a buyer and I'm damn sure not going to get knocked over by their lifeless financial carcass as a tenant when they catch it because their become overwhelmed by their negative cash flow.
then yes, people are even dumber than I thought they were.
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That my friend is an understatment.
As a matter of fact I will give them the benefit of doubt, it is not that they are dumb...just misinformed.
As long as the MSM says everything is beautiful the sheeple go along with it.
Country denial moving to fear but many screwed people now in desperation
I think people are even dumber than you think they are, Keith. And that's pretty dumb.
Hey, I could be wrong, but I think they are still in denial. I would say the denial is getting weaker and fear is creeping in like a demented ninja, poised to strike.
When the official August housing sales numbers come in, then we get fear.
Things will not crash here in NH. Not even denial here becaseu homes are still selling for near peak prices. Give it up, not everywhere is Naples or LV.
Still a lot of denial here in DC. Had lunch the other day with a bunch of coworkers, one of them is looking to buy her first house.
There seemed to be a vague sense within the group that the housing market was doing poorly. Unfortunately, they interpret this as being a "buyer's market".
Let's wait another three or four years. Then we'll see what a buyer's market really is.
Greenspan was right. Panic of 1837.
Still no fear here in DC, they all think the gov't will save them.
RE: From denial to fear...
Denial is no longer just a river in Egypt.
Last year: "People keep saying that the housing bubble will pop, but it never does."
This year: "The housing bubble has popped."
V.L.
"Anonymous said...
Things will not crash here in NH. Not even denial here because homes are still selling for near peak prices. Give it up, not everywhere is Naples or LV."
I couldn't agree more; it’s always location, location, location. As always, if you are not living in a bubble area, there's no place on the chart. I've almost given up talking about it, since almost no one in this area has any concept of what's happening in the outside world, and could care less! If I remember correctly, I read somewhere that 50% of Americans do not live in bubble areas. So there you are. Now, will the financial impact of a collapsing economy affect here, of course, only the locals will never see it coming!
.
51% Fear
49% Panic
.
.
Make that
51% Denial
49% Fear
.
As of this morning, Bakersfield CA (central valley), is in fear. The FBI finally raided the offices of David Crisp to serve search warrants related to mortgage fraud.
http://www.kget.com/Default.aspx
http://www.bakersfield.com/
All local media sources, even local realtwhores are now acknowledging that there is bloated inventory, stagnant sales, widespread foreclosure, and that the worst is yet to come. I'd say that's fear.
We're still in the denial/hope phase. Here in OC, then banks are not dropping the prices on the REO's they hold. One in my neighborhood has been on the market for almost 180 days, no price cuts.
Spoke to a real estate clerk yesterday. He sold $10MM in real estate last year, but hasn't sold anything this year. When I asked what he was going to do, he said "Hang in there, it will get better"... That's still denial.
If the situation in the mass media is currently in Denial-to-Fear, where are you, as an HP'er, in the curve?
Fear-to-Desperation, one step ahead?
Still at ignorance for most of the sheeple. Some progression towards fear for players, though lots are still back at anxiety and denial.
And the sheeple will remain ignorant until the recession is well underway.
From the Star Ledger, a NJ newspaper. HOV homes slashing prices by up to six (6) figures. I see this as a good start to the downward price curve.
http://tinyurl.com/ynwjb8
Still have a stupid security guard at work that is also a REALTOR trying to tell me things are still going up!!! You know that median price keeps going up. I tell him because nobody can qualify for the lower priced homes.
I asked for price per sqft statistics and he brought me all houses over 4000sqft to prove houses are going up. Well hell yes idiot there is a lot of difference between 4001sqft and one thats 10000sqft. They have been building a lot of 6000-10000sqft homes here between 2003 and now.
Can't wait to see what no Jumbo loans will do to September median prices should be the last nail in the coffin.
Overall though people in Colorado Springs are to stupid to be afraid.
I agree that only a small portion of mainstream USA has transitioned into fear. The failure of most sellers to lower asking prices shows they remain in denial. This means a bottom is nowhere in sight and we have years to go.
Nick... ah... I think you missed the whole point of this site.
Hmm, I thought we were in fear a few weeks ago. But now I'm leaning to denial again.
I agree with the majority of posters here. From my perspective (I live in northern California), everyone is still in denial. There are pockets of fear here and there. But for the most part, ignorance and denial abound.
I think fear won't hit until the Alt-A resets begin. Most areas still in denial did not have the level of subprime loans to warrant fear. But as this housing downturn gathers steam, and the alt-a and even prime borrowers are squeezed, fear will begin to permiate.
I am not in DENIAL. You see, the stock market is absolutely undervalued and so is my house! There is no doubt that there there will not be any recession because even though my home's equity is tapped, I can now start stripping my home for building materials to sell on eBay. You see, no slowdown in my spending and I'll be able to still pay my mortgage and credit cards. After all, I am a resilient American consumer.
I've seen the future, and the future is, uh, that chart.
Denial and fear are just starting to blur in Massachusetts.
What we all need to remember is that everything takes a lot longer to happen than we initially think. The wheels of change (again), grind sooo slowly, especially in economic shifts.
What the nay sayers fail to realize is that they are the ones that help enable and perpetuate the inevitable pain and anguish.
...and so we slowly grind down.
Also, most of the nay sayers already are getting raped (whether they want to believe it or not)by forking over most of their incomes and forfeiting their childrens education on a, get this, a horrifying, overvalued place to stay and so, can't fathom the idea that potential buyers aren't getting anywhere near this crap and the idiots that buy now are the few, the dumb and the inflictors of self-perpetuating pain.
I disagree with the poster who says that only the bubble area's will be effected by the crash.
NH will crash, Ohio will crash, everywhere will crash.
For example I live in Oakland County Michigan. (Between Detroit and Flint) for you US-Americans who don't have maps.
And even though there was no bubble here people still cannot sell their houses, prices are coming down, and forclosures are skyrocketing.
My father was a six-figure salary auto executive at Chrysler. He received a retirement buyout and got his real estate license for fun to give him something to do while retired.
His first house sale was a Fannie Mae owned condo that sold for 195,000 in 2005 and was now REO. Fannie Mae accepted a lowball 135K offer on the 149K they had it listed for from some canadian guy.
It is only going to get worse here as more forclosures flood the market combined with the retiring baby boomers selling their homes to move south and everyone who is losing their manufacturing jobs selling their house to leave.
This is pretty much a working class area where most people who own homes only make about 20.00 an hour. You tell me how they were buying 250-400K homes for the past couple years.
The answer is the flood of advertising by ROCK Financial and Quicken Loans offering Neg-amort morgages, Zero down, Quick And Easy no document loans, Interest only, you name it... There was a commerical on every 30 seconds for these exotic morgages. Now the arms are adjusting, people are losing jobs, and the glut of houses are coming onto the market lowering prices.
I don't care where you live. Prices are going to come down to 2001 levels for sure and maybe even lower.
Even if you did not live in a bubble area you are going to lose your shirt.
Gotta love this. $320000 >> >> OPEN HOUSE 9/15 11-1, 3 Bed/2.5 Bath, Furnished!!!!
http://stockton.craigslist.org/rfs/420705991.html
I feel for the family though.
Tampa is still in denial. A house around the corner from me is for sale at $469k. The same place sold at the peak of the bubble in 2005 for $350k.
Greenspan and his puppetmasters have acomplished what they set out to do, destroy the american middle class, the question is,what will they do next.
Jingle Mail shoulda built a boat before he went fishing
did you read the detroit article about the bull dozing of neighborhoods into park land by the city , in order to avoid carry costs on not selling houses and this was sort of water front properties and with access to what worked once aS THE FINEST INDUSTRIAL LANDS??
INDUSTRIALISTS MANSIONS FOR 30,000 BUCKS
Hurry up and sell or be priced in forever.
Quit throwing money away on a mortgage and RENT.
Hurry won't last 300 days on market I $hit you not.
I think each step should have a "nuclear doomsday clock" (eg 10 minutes to midnight) to indicate how close we are to reaching it.
For example - "10 minutes to Panic", and when everyone is in panic mode then "7 minutes to Desperation"... etc. for each phase.
I'd have the clock at the very top of the blog with the phase name (fear, desperation, etc.) below it... just so everyone knows where we are.
IB
Downtown DC here. The cusp of fear among some but still denial for most with an occasional twitch that something is wrong. I have had a number of recent data points on the following comment. A number of friends from the (south & Midwest) both in and out of DC who are crystal clear on the bubble now with the beginnings of fear. Friends from CA, the NE and international still have the "party on attitude" for the most part.
Gotta love this. $320000 >> >> OPEN HOUSE 9/15 11-1, 3 Bed/2.5 Bath, Furnished!!!!
http://stockton.craigslist.org/rfs/420705991.html
I feel for the family though.
Hmmm...I still feel like 320,000 is way over priced for a house in Stockton, Ca... I live two miles from a major capital along the Atlantic and my neighborhood is full of nice houses for around 130-150,000. Given the average income in the US that seems about right.
Still 60% denial here in Maryland, but I can see the fear starting to creep in.
Still in denial her in South Florida..."other people have to reduce there sales price...not me"...when fear hits I have not idea what will happen. It will happen soon as the season begins soon here in South Florida. I figure mid January the reality will hit and hard...!
keith said...
If people are still in denial even with the massive amount of news out there about this meltdown, then yes, people are even dumber than I thought they were
What, is America's Top Model back on TV again?
September 13, 2007 9:17 AM
-----------------
You should never underestimate the stupidity of average sheeple.
Anonymous said...
I must disagree w/ the "still in denial" posts. Maybe those who do not have impending doom hovering overthem are still in denial, but many a failed fliptard turned floplord clearly are in FEAR here in NOVA. I've been looking for a place to rent and figured I'd try a private LL. They are all desperate but greedy. They list a "rent" but then want you to pay a move in fee, the HOA/Condo fees, huge repair deductibles etc etc etc. The places are a mess, not clean, not upgraded and your like why would I pay you this much rent (including all the BS fees) for something your not taking care of? Then another property comes up in the same community at a lower rent, more space, no BS fees, and its clean and updated. Why? Its a pre-bubble owner LL who can generate positive cash flow w/ a single low rent and is not hurting so they can afford to make the place presentable. But you have to act fast when the good ones come up, because everyone pounces, while the bubble buyer floplords' properties languish on the market vacant.
I've decided to rent with a professionally managed property (this does not include private LL's who farm it out to a real estate agency) take the incentives they offer and wait this one out for at least 3 years. The fliptards dug themselves a whole by not budging on price, now by playing the same game as a rental they are just throwing dirt on themselves, I do not want to get involved at all with THEIR problem. I was not going to catch their knife as a buyer and I'm damn sure not going to get knocked over by their lifeless financial carcass as a tenant when they catch it because their become overwhelmed by their negative cash flow.
September 13, 2007 12:54 PM
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Indeed, I see the same sh*t here in Southern Craplifornia... Failed fliptards asking WAY over market for rent, e.g., $2400 for a 2-bedroom condo when the going rate (in a good area) is more like $1700. Good luck finding a sucker willing to pay you an extra $700 a month in rent, fliptards.
Since the canadian dollar passing the US dollar is but a few months away and pretty much a foregone conclusion, yet no one cares, I wonder if the same will be true when the brazilian real passes the dollar, or the mexican peso perhaps?
.
We just can't seem to get past the denial phase!
Until the median out here is in line with the sales volume drops I suspect denial is still in full effect.
OC the HOME of denial and stupidity....and GREED!
I sold my home last year but I believe I'm more afraid than the FB in my office. Some are still in denial!!! Denial is really tough to get past! It's the last hope!
Every once in awhile I see beads of sweat on the FB's forehead but other than some heavy breathing and not one word about real estate. Somehow, someway he's holding up!
fear is near
.
This same chart and question are on this site 1yr ago this month and not too much has changed!
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