September 27, 2007

The toxic mortgage chickens are coming home to roost. Oh, man, this is gonna be ugly.




15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Follow H.R. 3468 closely. It is a proposed law working its way through Congress. Among other things, it directs the IRS to exclude mortgage forgiveness from income, retroactive to Jan 1, 2007. While such a law might encourage people to cut their prices and dum their homes if they can convince their lenders to accept a deed in lieu of foreclosure, I do not see any requirments that the lender or borrower report renegotiated mortgages to the county assessor, or anyone else who will make public the new implied house value.

Anonymous said...

I think those chickens have housing flu.

Anonymous said...

So? The bailout is here. The ARM will reset into a 1% fixed.

michael said...

so one more year until housing really starts to tank.

i have a feeling that capitulation will not begin until all those subrimes have reset.

Mammoth said...

Keith,

Is the upper photograph a pic of the back yard of one of those new California McMansions occupied by four families of illegals?

Just curious...

Anonymous said...

This graph cannot be correct. It depicts that after 07/2009 there will be no more subprime resets? Subprime mortgages were still handed out Aug this year, so don't these arms go for 4 - 5 years prior to reset?

Anonymous said...

The governments interest is not to encourage people to walk away from their mortgages. This whole fiasco was intentional by Greenspan in order to lock as many workers into 30 years of servitude as possible. The government will do all it can to "help" as many people over the next few years become even more entrapped into their homes and mortgages.

DOPES said...

WAIT...
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YUP!.. JUST WHAT I THOUGHT!
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SOME CRASH!!!!
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DOPES!
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KEEP ON WAITING AND RENTING!

Anonymous said...

Small town broker says:

The vast majority of the loans were originally 100% cltv, many interest only.

With the market decline in value they are now over 100%, they are upside down.

Underwriting standards have tightend dramatically. Nobodys going to give anybody a low fico high ltv stated income loan anymore.

According to the index and margin the subprime rates will be resetting to 11% or 12% and they have no hope of refinancing.

Unless loan holders forgo a large part of the contractual rate increase it's surely gonna be a wipe out especially considering the typical subprime credit profile.

Anonymous said...

I'm waiting for congress to pass this bill, especially the part about no 1099's on mortgage forgiveness, so that I can mail the keys back to the bank, without having to worry about selling my toys. I want to keep the Harley, BMW, boat, and plasma TV's my house worked so hard to get for me.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

It's already ugly for many US house debters, and soon to get alot uglier.

A neigbhor of mine has still not sold her house, but she did receive an offer to convert the place into rental units.

Perhaps that will be the trend here where the pricier areas also get hit - Mc-Mansions to Mc-Communes.

Anonymous said...

The HR3468 tax exemption is only for primary residences. NAR tried to include investment speculation homes in the bill but failed. At least Congress has an iota of decency left.

Anonymous said...

The scary part is foreclosures are already increasing by over 100% in the bubble areas and unemployment is supposedly very low. This is going to get very ugly

Anonymous said...

Anybody want to guess the average lag time between when a loan resets and when it is defaulted on?

I'm guessing about 6 months. Squeak out the first two months payment, then four months to surrender/paperwork.

bickerer said...

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Ummmm! Toxic chicken ramen.


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