September 25, 2007

Someone tell me how the MSM buys the NAR spin that "home sales are bottoming" and only down 4%. Look at this chart. A historic crash is underway.

At what point does the MSM (and the US Homedebtor) realize they've been had?

Hat-tip to
doom for the chart. Picture is worth 100000000000000000000 NAR words...

And a
special message for Larry Yun and the NAR: PEOPLE AREN'T BUYING YOUR BULLS*IT ANYMORE. And for heaven's sake, why the f*ck is the "Senior Economist" of the NAR also its spokesperson? Don't they have budget for a PR flak?

National Association of realtors Press Release:
For more information, contact:
Walt Molony, 202/383-1177, wmolony@realtors.org

August Existing-Home Sales Fall on Temporary Mortgage Problems

WASHINGTON, September 25, 2007 - Existing-home sales fell in August when mortgage availability problems were peaking, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – were down 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.50 million units in August from a level of 5.75 million in July, and are 12.8 percent below the 6.31 million-unit pace in August 2006.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, expected the decline. “The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market, including a significant rise in jumbo loan rates, resulted in a fairly high number of postponed or cancelled sales, with many buyers having to search for other financing when loan commitments fell through,” he said. “Lower sales contributed to a buildup of unsold inventory.”

Yun expects similar results for home sales in September. “Once we get through these disruptions, we’ll get a better sense of where the actual market is in late fall as conditions begin to normalize,” he said.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

>> Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, expected the decline.

That's like saying "Human beings, occupants of planet Earth, expected the sun to rise in the east this morning." No duh!

case-shiller said...

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Check out

http://www.macromarkets.com/
recent_news/press_releases/
2007/09252007_S&P.pdf

Just out this morning.

LA/OC prices down 4.8% YOY.
San Diego prices down 7.8% YOY.

But wait, I thought everyone wanted to live in So.Cal.???

Anonymous said...

Wow, Keith. I love your site, agree with most things you say and am entertained by others, but you have gone off your rocker with this statement.

"So GM workers, not understanding that they make crap cars for a crap company who has no future, went on strike today."

Lets revisit that doozy of a statement. Start a thread based on that statement if you can stand the heat, and the facts.

Anonymous said...

Hell, Keith, the dollar has lost 3% of it's value in September alone and the month isn't even over yet. Add that onto the month-over-month falling home prices and you start to get an accurate picture.

CNBC's Jane Wells has a report coming up next hour from Stockton, CA. Wells called it "the housing bust capital of the world." She also said the brown lawns are called "Foreclosure brown".

k.w. - southern ca. said...

This crash is good *overall* for the economy, because it will force us to find another means of re-building our economic infrastructure - that is not self-serving, and sustainable - over the long-term.

The problem is, we've outsourced our manufacturing and IT industries, which means we're more dependent on the international community - which has growing dislike for us as we continue with our reckless foreign policies.

Anonymous said...

.
.
.
I think that the NAR should wake up to the fact that their credibility has taken a huge hit. Notice how most mainstream media outlets have begun to quote the Case-Shiller rather than the NAR numbers for the house price quotes.

On the other hand, thanks to Lareah, most of the damage has been done, so they might as well remain a super-spin machine.

Anonymous said...

If you look at the quotes in the MSM tomorrow you will see an almost condecening attitude towared NAR and Yun. We saw it last month too with comments like "for the eighth consecutive month the NAR has revised lower their forecast for...". I think they realize that nobody believes them anymore.

realtor headhunter said...

Great chart keith.Sales are dropping like a rock dude.Lawrence yun seems to believe his own lies. I saw trump on cnbc today talking about how bad things could get.Man this country has some serious issues with debt.We keep printing money like crazy.Inflation has been out of control for 5 years but the govt data says all is well.We are running on debt because that is the only way from keeping us from total financial meltdown.We are borrowing ourselves a trip to the grave.Where are all these jobless realtor folks, where the 8 million jobs were created, going to find work?Walmart can only take so many people.

Look for a serious housing meltdown in california.Stockton is a hellhole with a bunch of wannabe investors preying on the mornons who bought at the peak.

Anonymous said...

It was Joseph Goebels (Hitler's spinmeister) who said that if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it...

The NAR isn't the only group using this old axiom (e.g. Al Quaida's non-existant link to pre-war Iraq).

Anonymous said...

Beware of of the Ides of September, especially when the gales of November come early.

I am greatly concerned at all the "organized support" going on in regards to the proping up of the market. Its a hindenburg indicator of the foreseeable future for the finanacial markets.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

I saw a new poster in the train station today. It was a picture of Donald Trump and it was advertising shirts and ties. I guess he's not earning enough these days as a developer so he has to sell shirts.

shtove said...

Jeeez - is that joker still at it?

Too long in the trenches. Yun breaks under the boredom and has to stick his head up and see if it attracts any fire. Not such a good idea when you're "wearing a luminous balaclava while smoking endless cigarettes".

Good shooting, Mr HP. And the market futures say there's four years to go until the bottom - so, more power to your trigger finger!

grilled italian club w fries said...

I like how Yun said, "The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market..."

************************

"UNUSUAL??????"

Was in not UNUSUAL that ethical real estate agents were selling homes from $35,000 to $450,000 MORE than the house or condo was worth to anybody they can find over the past half-decade?? !

(As they told the buyers, "Don't worry about the high price! House values just keep going up and up and up! No money, no down payment, no job, no credit, NO PROBLEM! Just sign here!

Hey, do you like my gold watch?

>PFFFFFY< What a scam. Many good people got screwed, or soon will be.

Leadership (or mass destruction thereof), of a civilized nation always flows from top downward. Full meltdown (in all sectors) is now well underway.

Anonymous said...

It was Joseph Goebels (Hitler's spinmeister) who said that if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it...


SMELLS OF KARL ROOVE ET AL!

If you say the lie enough, people begin to believe it - still happening today!!

Anonymous said...

Hey everyone, just vote for Hitlary ad she will fix everything. Free homes, free health care, free everything.

VOTE DEM and all your worries will be gone.

Anonymous said...

What is MSM?

Edgar said...

After Billary has her eight years vote for Jenna's Bush! Long live the Queen!

Anonymous said...

BTW GM does make crap.

Samuel Adams said...

ABC tonight (I like to see what the propagandists have to say before listening to Steve Quayle or Robbie Noell) news had some RE guy saying that they see no end in sight for the downturn. ABC went on a panic pretty much. I was surprised that they would be as honest as they were. Thing is, they always come in way after the fact. I was reading about these housing problems like this last fall on blogs (like this one!).

As for GM...they cannot pay the health care of every freaking GM retiree. WTF? I guess those union guys think that the money never ends. Watch GM go under (BK) if they concede. Same thing if the US does nat'l health care.

Anonymous said...

that chart doesn't prove anything in itself, just looks things are back to normal, 2002 levels?

Anonymous said...

They're still saying the crash won't hit Portland because the area still shows a 3.8% YOY appreciation.

BitterRenter said...

Vote republican and 98% of you will be living in tents.

All of our worst times were under republican rule. Conservatism is savagery, the feudal system for the modern era.

f'ed said...

i'm now seeing a nice Audi for sale at the end of a busy street here (for sale signs in every window). still seeing lots of vehicles for sale in parking lots too where there were not several months ago. lots of open house signs too. who makes "for sale" and "open house" signs? they must be doing well!

getting tired of seeing "flip this house" and "flip THAT house" on tv -- need to have "desperate homedebtors"

AmazingRuss said...

VOTE DEM and all your worries will be gone.

Being as we only have two choices in this country, after the 8 year rape of the republican party, it's pretty obvious Hillary is going to be the next president. Bush did all he could to make it a certainty.

Ron Paul is the only chance the republican party has, and they lack the balls to support him.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
It was Joseph Goebels (Hitler's spinmeister) who said that if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it...

The NAR isn't the only group using this old axiom (e.g. Al Quaida's non-existant link to pre-war and Iraq).

September 25, 2007 8:57 PM

Yawn... How about the lie that the Bush Admin made up the WMD threat? Clinton, UN, and others made reference to Iraq WMDs years before and during the Iraq invasion. But lets just make a lie that it is a Bush conspiracy. So easy to refute the liberal lies and uncover their hatred for the United States.

Anonymous said...

MIAMI (AP) -- Tough times in the national housing market led to a company record loss of $513.9 million for Lennar Corp. in the third quarter, with drops in sales prices and home deliveries compounded by heavy charges to write down land values. Its shares fell almost 4 percent.

One of the nation's largest home builders said Tuesday it had cut its work force by 35 percent this year and that it expects to pare more employees soon.

Anonymous said...

Simple. The bubble areas are down 20% to 50%. The rest of the country is fine or slightly down. It all averages out to 4%. AND if you were wondering why the average price went UP, it's simply because the high end market, $1,000,000 is still good. Less lower end sales average with equal higher end sales is a higher average price. In 2006 into early 2007, average prices in Southwest Florida were INCREASING. The 200k-500k stuff was dead, but the 1M on the beach was strong. The bubble overall for US housing price won't drop 40%. Places in North Carolina, etc. are appreciating. AND this week, this Realtor Whore was swamped with buyers from Canada and Europe due to the weak dollar. They will be buying this season. They may even spur activity in some of the Florida bubble areas. Of course Miami is f..... for some time.

Anonymous said...

I'm happy and scared at the same time. I'm happy that the participants of the ponzi scheme are being destroyed, but I'm scared that they will drag everyone down with them.

area 51 said...

I don't know what you all are whining about.....

Now is a great opportunity for savvy investors to get in just as the real estate market is bouncing back.

Places like New Orleans (never mind their pesky murder and rape rate) are HOT HOT HOT!

But you fools wouldn't know a great opportunity if it hit you in the face.

Check it out.......
Outstanding expose by the Leader in Business News....MSNMoney...

http://tinyurl.com/2mwkzw

;)

Anonymous said...

MSM = methyl-sulfonyl-methane
didn' you know!

ok...strike that...MSM means MainStream Media

Anonymous said...

Yawn... How about the lie that the Bush Admin made up the WMD threat? Clinton, UN, and others made reference to Iraq WMDs years before and during the Iraq invasion.

FWIW, Iraq did have WMDs in the 80's (we gave him some of them). The UN Inspectors oversaw their destruction in the 90's. Saddam kept boasting about WMDs to intimidate his neighbors which gave GWB an excuse to invade.

It would have worked out great if we went 100% into Afghanistan, captured Osama, and then went 100% into Iraq.

As it is the Middle East is in a worse mess and the only winners are the Defense Contractors (500 billion dollars and counting) and Osama (recruiting is way up).

But how does this relate to real estate spinmeisters?

Anonymous said...

The NAR isn't the only group using this old axiom (e.g. Al Quaida's non-existant link to pre-war and Iraq).

------------

Hmmm you mean like when Hillary clinton said this?

"In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members ... It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons."

-- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY), Oct 10, 2002

DaveO said...

"'UNUSUAL??????'

Was in not UNUSUAL that ethical real estate agents were selling homes from $35,000 to $450,000 MORE than the house or condo was worth to anybody they can find over the past half-decade?? !"

So true. I also think that it's amazing how, when the fed rate was 5.25% up until 8 days ago, that the MSM and NAR were talking about how rates were probably going to "revert" down to a "normal" level. As if 5.25% isn't low enough. Average fed rates over the last 45 years are closer to 7.5%. So reversion to the mean would mean rates going UP several percent, not down.

And yes, the prices we have now, even though they are slightly lower than the peak, would still look absolutely ludicrous to someone back in 2002 or so.

WHY DOES THE MSM AND NAR HAVE SUCH A SHORT TERM MEMORY? DID THEY FORGET ABOUT PRICES AND RATES AS THEY WERE UP UNTIL ABOUT 2002?

Anonymous said...

Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons...

The classified National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq cast doubt on the "Iraqi WMDs are a slam dunk" claim.

Only six senators bothered to read it before the 2002 vote. Hillary wasn't one of them.

http://tinyurl.com/2c8afj

So back to the topic at hand...

Sales people who get paid when they sell things will paint the best picture that they can.

"The stock market is going to the moon!"

"You can make a mint by flipping that condo!"

"That car was only driven to church on Sundays by a little old lady!"

Caveat Emptor

http://tinyurl.com/2mkk7q

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Simple. The bubble areas are down 20% to 50%. The rest of the country is fine or slightly down. It all averages out to 4%. AND if you were wondering why the average price went UP, it's simply because the high end market, $1,000,000 is still good. Less lower end sales average with equal higher end sales is a higher average price. In 2006 into early 2007, average prices in Southwest Florida were INCREASING. The 200k-500k stuff was dead, but the 1M on the beach was strong. The bubble overall for US housing price won't drop 40%. Places in North Carolina, etc. are appreciating. AND this week, this Realtor Whore was swamped with buyers from Canada and Europe due to the weak dollar. They will be buying this season. They may even spur activity in some of the Florida bubble areas. Of course Miami is f..... for some time.

September 26, 2007 3:42 AM




HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Keep sniffing the glue and everything will be alright. As far as the foreigners buying, keep dreaming! I think I hear the kettle boiling on your stove, better hurry before someone steals your Raman.