September 16, 2007

SHOCKING FLASH: Alan Greenspan shocks markets, says home prices are going to crash and crash significantly. No, I'm not making this up.

- Cause greatest financial mania in human history - check

- During mania, tell people to take our adjustable rate loans - check

- During mania, deny there was a mania - check

- After crash starts, admit you screwed up - check

- To finish things off, tell the world that home values are gonna crash and crash significantly - check



Greenspan alert on US house prices

US house prices are likely to fall significantly from their present levels, Alan Greenspan has told the Financial Times, admitting that there was a bubble in the US housing market.

In an interview ahead of the release on Monday of his widely-anticipated memoirs, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve said the decline in house prices “is going to be larger than most people expect”.


panicearly said...

alan greenspan : go fuck yourself, im with you on that keith...

Anonymous said...

We've entered housing panic land now

Anonymous said...

That bastard created the stock and housing bubble with easy credit and now he warns about the impending doom. If there was any justice, that greedy old troll would be in prison

Anonymous said...

Burn baby burn. I hope the prices crash but do not take a nosedive all at once. My parent's house has been paid for and they do not use it as a piggy bank to borrow against. Lower value means lower taxes for them. They are not in the buy and sell your house scam to get rich quick either.

As for me, I have saved since college and plan to purchase a home within the next 5 years. Some of my friends from college are facing foreclosure cause they bought at the height of the bubble. I have my eye on a 1400 sq ft home built in 1955 in a well established area with giant live oak trees on the lot that is priced currently for $170K. If this or a house similar to it gets under $100K I might be able to even pay freakin cash for it and have no one to answer to. That would be awesome for a first time buyer!

On a side note, Local govt. is going to go nuts when prices crash. Their tax rolls will crash in proportion to the prices. Less money for roads, cops, fire dept, schools, etc....but best of all less money for crooked politicans!

BRING IT ON...but crash it incrementally and hit rock bottom around 2010 (when I plan to buy).

Anonymous said...

Humm I remember the context of the term "froth" when he used it. He used it in response to the question as to whether or not there was a housing bubble. His retort of "no but there is some froth in local markets" was taken to mean that there was NO bubble. Now he is saying that his retort of froth mean he was agreeing with those who posited that there was a bubble. This is all a very intellectually dishonest and disingenuine interaction. He should have clarified what he meant then, because while it still would have been painful, it would have initiated the correction sooner and may people's financial lifes, as well as the viability of the greater economy, would have been spared all the pain that is coming down the pipe.

Good Luck.

Anonymous said...

I won't believe it's over until Greg Swann issues an apology

Anonymous said...

Home prices are going to crash?

Now who was that public official who recommended people go out and get ARM loans?

Alan Greenspan.

Say your sorry to all those people under water.

shtove said...

Handy way to get publicity for a book launch, and on the weekend before a Fed meeting.

We're still plumbing the depths - expect many strange incidents and WTF moments like this as we go down down down.

Anonymous said...

F him

area 51 said...

But Mr Greenspan told the FT that froth “was a euphemism for a bubble”.

Dude is a criminal.

Anonymous said...

Houses to crash to $0.80 per square foot in my opinion!

$1.50 per square foot in California

and 2.00 per square foot on anything with an ocean view.

We have a long way to fall baby

Paul E. Math said...

Greenspan is a genius. Not as an economist, as a wordsmith.

I, as I believe did everyone else, thought that when Greenspan said there was 'froth' in the housing market, that was his way of dismissing the bubble. I thought he called it 'froth' because it was so small, nothing at all.

But now he is able to say that what he really meant by 'froth' was not that there was no bubble, but that there were several bubbles.

Absolutely amazing.

Not since Bill Clinton said 'I did not have sex with that woman' have I seen such brilliance.

What dishonest old bastard.

wc said...

He's still only fessing up to single digit drops - possibly into double digits. That's just what he's willing to admit to.

Anonymous said...

"double digits" could mean 99% but probably means about 30% nationally and 50% in bubble areas of Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California.

J at IHB and HFF said...

Newsflash: Greenspan announced that there is a housing bubble, the United States invaded Iraq, and the Red Sox won the World Series.

keith said...

I wonder how REALTORS will try to spin (or ignore) Greenspan's "fall significantly" comments?

"Now's a great time to buy - since home prices are gonna fall a ton from here on out. Oops. Check that. It's a great time to buy because, well, oh, crap, I'm lying. Bye now"

buyerwillepb said...

The Greater Depression is begun.

edenz said...

C'mon Al,
You were sleeping during the Fed meetings.
You didn't know housing is overpriced.
You are not responsible for loose lending.
Its time for your medication.
Calm down.
Its just a 'new' paradigm.

bickerer said...

Too bad Greenspan didn't throw in a comment like "If the people are going to act like sheep they're going to get fleeced". You know, something really on the edge of civility.

Then he may have earned back some HP respect.

russdog777 said...

absolutely Greenspan can go and 'shag' himself. That rump-wrangler caused all this mess and now he gets to puff up his ego by publicly stating that he knew what was happening all along?

I'm incensed and he shouldn't get away with this.

D. said...

"I, as I believe did everyone else, thought that when Greenspan said there was 'froth' in the housing market, that was his way of dismissing the bubble. I thought he called it 'froth' because it was so small, nothing at all"

When he said froth I couldn't help but think pollution, you know... the foam on the lakefront from a few defective cottage septic tanks.

Anonymous said...

hey dopes, your daddy just told you how its goin to be it and weep....

Anonymous said...

why is it everytime this old man says something everyone goes bonkers?

Anonymous said...

with him shooting his mouth off so much this weekend, i am sure cramerica is going to take a major hit this monday. can't wait to watch the cnbc babes talking about what is going on.....cnbc has the best looking reporter babes in the business....

messier11 said...

Talk about CYA.

The "Maestro" says he didn't realize how bad the mortgage situation was? 2005 was the launch of probably over 100 housing, mortgage and financial bubble blogs. I mean the implications of such an admission, or worse (if he actually did realize) a criminal deception, are staggering given the vast evidence at hand at the time. I mean what the f*ck was he looking at? Not price to rent? Not inflation adjusted prices? Not mortgage debt levels? Not MEW? Not Case/Shiller? Not income to mortgage? Oh, I get it. He was reading Lereah's books instead.

Its obvious now that the depth of blowup that the bubble community have been preaching for 2 years will occur. This really may be the kickoff to Panic mode. A very exciting time for all for HPers and bubble bloggers. Keith, you and your loyal readers have gone from eoyores and kooks to sages in just 2 years. Be careful, you may end up on 60 Minutes. Or worse, CNBC.

Anonymous said...

Does this not give you some sort of indication on the amount of falsehood involved with the leadership of the FEDERAL RESERVE? Do you sincerely believe any of these "APPOINTED LEADERS" have the independence and integrity to do what is right and economically sound??????????????????????

Anonymous said...

Dammit America looking for a scapegoat for your own ignorrance and greed. Whether Greenspan said froth bubble or anything at all. If you couldn't see the obvious and bought anyways your the fool blame yourself. When it's 3X the avg rent to buy then prices are a bubble poised to crash. Isnt the obvious the obvious and he even gave you a big hint FROTH!!!!!

You thought you would profit off the next fool well your the fool accept it and take responsibility.

Anonymous said...

Mr Greenspan said he would expect “as a minimum, large single-digit” percentage declines in US house prices from peak to trough and added that he would not be surprised if the fall was “in double digits”.<<<

first he says it will be single digit declines and then he says it probably will be double digit that what you call ......fed speak....?

hey dopes, what cha goin to do dopes when that mcmansion you bought is worth half of what you paid for it?

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

correction: should be "take OUT adjustable rate..."

Anonymous said...




Anonymous said...




Anonymous said...




swamprat said...

Since 1998 I have been saying Greenspan would go down in history as a buffoon. He worked for the government. What would you expect?
So now he gets 8 million for a book he writes while sitting in the bath tub. (He said) Where was Andrea while he was typing? He should have titled it "Coming Clean, Big Mistakes I Have Made"

Anonymous said...

Paul E. Math said...
Greenspan is a genius. Not as an economist, as a wordsmith.

I, as I believe did everyone else, thought that when Greenspan said there was 'froth' in the housing market, that was his way of dismissing the bubble. I thought he called it 'froth' because it was so small, nothing at all.

But now he is able to say that what he really meant by 'froth' was not that there was no bubble, but that there were several bubbles.

No- It really wasn't "several bubbles" as you interpret Greenspan to have said. How could it have been "several"? It has previously and generally been accepted that this mess we're in was "one credit" bubble that was and is primarilly concentrated on housing!

No matter which way you slice it, dice it, interpret it, it was one housing credit bubble (not several)that HE CREATED by lowering interest rates to historically unprecedented levels. Thats it, there's nothing more to it, except if you want to add that Greenspan is as crooked as they come and those people that praise him are as stupid as they come!

Anonymous said...

"That bastard created the stock and housing bubble with easy credit and now he warns about the impending doom. If there was any justice, that greedy old troll would be in prison"

It's funny how everyone blames Greenspan but in reality the only people who should be blamed are the fools who paid the ridiculously high prices for their houses. I mean c'mon, just because there was easy money out there does not mean people should throw away their good judgment and common sense. Start looking in the mirror and asking why you paid 500k for a house that only 3 years earlier was going for half that much. NOTHING goes up that fast without eventually crashing back down to Earth.

Anonymous said...

The DemoRats will be in a bidding war over who can give more taxpayer money to the FB's and Wall Street billionaires.

Here's a dirty little secret

Anonymous said...

Oh My!!! This is going to be a disaster

GT said...

"I wonder how REALTORS will try to spin (or ignore) Greenspan's "fall significantly" comments?"

kinda like how KHOV said something to the effect of
"we've got to discount homes by up to 100k to remind buyers that now is a great time to buy"

WTF, how does this make any sense?!

Raynla said...

Alan Greenspan commercial for Apple Computer.

Make of it what you will.


Bitterrenter said...

My favorite part of the article:

"In his memoirs, Mr Greenspan, a lifelong Republican, criticises his party for abandoning its small-government principles, and warns that the trade-off between inflation and growth is likely to worsen."

Can't wait to start rounding up republicans when the sh*t hits the fan. Those people are worthless.

Anonymous said...

Could rates ever go back to 80's double digit interest rates...I mean people sweat 7% now but back then I think it got up to about 16% or so, and that was with somewhat higher lending adherence and hell to pay consequences if you did not.

Anonymous said...

If you idiots bothered to read Greenspans comments his version of "significant" is high single digits, low double digits - from peak to trough. I like the way you airheads read that as "50% to 99% drop".

Perhaps you can't read. Enjoy that new caveman show on tv this fall - you can relate i'm sure!

Anonymous said...

Somebody please kick his teeth in

RJ said...

Oh Alan, that funny, little troll. He has also confessed that Iraq was about oil. From his new memoir:

"I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil."

Now he's trying to be a stand up guy? Of course in his interview with Lesley Stahl he claims he didn't know what was going on with the subprime market, or, er, he knew something was going on but it couldn't be effectively regulated, or, er, the other FED governors really didn't know what they were talking about when they recommended tighter regulations, or, er,...
While he was pumping his ARMs, he might have mentioned that the Pres was trying to keep our Hummers humming with affordable gas by securing the Middle East.

It doesn't matter. The FED will now reflate and everything will be just fine. The world's central banks will continue to control the dollar's fall like a downward floating feather. The DOW will hit 20,000. Hell, 100,000! And Energy will be plentiful and cheap. We're on the verge of the next great BOOM!

Anonymous said...

From a long time poster here on HP.

A gut feeling from sniffing the wind of chat and news on the net>>>

High odds of 2nd 911 terror attack on 9-21-07.


#1) Major money is being bet that the stock market crashes -- similar to what happened days before 9-11-01.

#2) Several military bases are locking down on 9-21-01 this is being done despite large cost and disruptions involved.

#3) All the chess pieces are in place for a political windfall from a 2nd 911 event for the Whitehouse.

#4) The global banking system is about to implode and cover is needed by the big boys.

HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF. Don't be within 50 miles of any major U.S. city on 9-21-07. Expect mushroom clouds and Katrina *1000 looting and destruction.

NOTICE: To Intelligence Agencies who read this post. If you want to nuke Iran, Just do it! You don't need to create another false-flag attack here in the U.S. first. The general population can scream and bitch about it all they want; but in reality are all a bunch of couch potatoes--- the citizens are never going to do anything more than protest in the streets. BIG DEAL. ARREST THE FEW WHO GET OUT OF LINE and the rest will go home at the end of the day and turn on the television to escape reality anyway.

Anonymous said...

Greenspan is a scumbag. Did you see him on 60 minutes this weekend? he kept dodging the question of what he was invested in and what currency he was holding. Clearly, it is not the US dollar by his behavior.

Furthermore, he pretty much kissed *** when it came to Reagan and GW Bush by doing their bidding. Now he says he was not always in agreement with them and fought them of things....TOTAL BS!

He is going to go to hell but I will pay tribute to him after he kicks the bucket by pouring a beer on his grave after it passes through my urinary system.

Anonymous said...

Just wait until the August Housing stats come in. This was the month that lending shut down.

It's going to be a bloodbath but frankly, there's nothing left to short! All the puts are too expensive and the housing related companies are all teetering on the edge.

Anonymous said...

been paid for and they do not use it as a piggy bank to borrow against. Lower value means lower taxes for them.


Ya, f-ing right!! good luck!

Grooving on the rubble said...

Note well: Greenspan issued this warning after the Fed's recent Colorado conference on the housing and mortgage crisis. He's obviously listened to Shiller's and other's warning that housing could fall up to 50% in some places, just like he listened to Shiller before the dot-com bubble burst.

What else do we need to conclude that Sir Alan is in fact an incompetent idiot. An empty suit with an undeserved reputation. A Wall Street lackey. His reputation with also fall as home prices do.

Anonymous said...

Two observations from this

1. Ben Bernake will definitely cut 50 now. I was thinking 25, but after this, it will be 50 to calm people down.

2. Blame Greenspan all you want. At the end of the day it was people making $20K with $500K homes. Greenspan wasn't the one lending 1/2 a mil to someone with 500 FICO working at Burger King.

Anonymous said...

Today you the word 'greenspan' doesn't even appear on the Forbes home page.

What a a financial tabloid. They think their readers are total imbeciles.

Anonymous said...

Hey what do you know. He has a new book. He says some shocking things. He gets a lot of news coverage.

Hmmmm....I wonder....could it be some kind of book release marketing?


Anonymous said...

Ayn Rand devotee Alan Greenspan, master architect of the present world financial crash, who jumped ship just ahead of the impact, has now come out with his memoirs of 30 years of meddling in economic policy making, called The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World. The book, due out on Monday, Sept. 17, might better have been called {The Fable of the Bees}, but that title was already taken in 1714 by Bernard Mandeville [1] in his paean of praise to the creative power of selfishness, and "private vice as a publick benefit."

In the pre-releases published today, echoing British genocidalist Mandeville, Greenspan heaps his most effusive praise for one of the largest casualties in the present financial crash--hedge funds, calling them "a vibrant trillion-dollar industry dominated by U.S. firms" ... "They are essentially free of government regulation, and I hope they will remain so" ..."Why do we wish to inhibit the pollinating bees of Wall Street?"

The pre-released book reviews in all the major papers also provided a hint of the thrust of the book, and samples of quotations from the book, of which Bob Woodward's review in the Washington Post is typical:

* Greenspan writes of the present Administration: "I thought we had a golden opportunity [with Bush/Cheney] to advance the ideals of effective, fiscally conservative government and free markets. ... I was soon to see my old friends [Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Paul O'Neill from the Ford Administration] veer off to unexpected directions."

* On the Administration more recently, he asserts we are "harboring a dysfunctional government. ... Governance has become dangerously dysfunctional."

* On the Republican approach to economic policy: "House Speaker Hastert and House majority leader Tom DeLay seemed readily inclined to loosen the federal purse strings any time it might help add a few more seats to the Republican majority".

* Greenspan claims in the book that the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States, replaced by information technologies and telecommunications, "is a plus, not a minus, to the American standard of living."

[1]Mandeville (1670-1733) was a Dutch-born, British empire agent and enemy of the very concept of the General Welfare, which underlies the American System. For a brilliant discussion of the Fable of the Bees, see the article by H. Graham Lowry entitled, "The Mandeville Model" from the Spring, 1996 issue of Fidelio, magazine of the Schiller Institute.

wc said...

I expected to see this all over the biz section today - instead all I found was Paul Krugman picking up on some of his contradictions. You would think Greenspan would know a little something about modern technology - he can try to backtrack all he wants and claim he didn't say things but somewhere someone has the actual soundbites or video. Maybe he's trying to atone for his sins now in case there really is a hell.

Anonymous said...

The bastard said the same things on 60 minutes last night as they drolled all over him in awe! Disgusting.

messy molly said...

Man oh man, Greenspan is in full, hard-on, CYA mode. Who's he going to blame next, his Mother?

When the dust settles and the bodies are counted, his rep as a financial genius will be gone. There aren't going to be any statues of Greenspan in DC.

westwest888 said...

But last week Ara Hovnanian said home prices were at bottom...?

Who am I to believe?

hold the onion rings said...


Osman said...

As I've been saying for years, a number of bubble markets have been set for a shakedown. In particular, several coastal metro primary home markets as well as Phoenix, Vegas, etc. The greater the speculation, the further off intrinsic value, and the more likely and deeper the fall.

Where I see confirmation:

He said he still thought froth – a collection of bubbles – was a better description, because of the variation in house price appreciation in different local housing markets. But he said “all the froth bubbles add up to an aggregate bubble”.

While some markets may see double digit depreciation, others will stay the same or appreciate. And last I checked, real estate buyers do so in whole properties. Wall street investors trade collaterized securities and other real estate derivatives but individual buyers and sellers of real estate generally do not securitize.

At this point, the impact seems to be hitting hardest at the low end. Even within a county, the variance in foreclosure levels is startling from town to town. To point, here's a recent regional analysis of Colorado. Note the difference between Longmont and Boulder (about a 20 minute drive from each other).

soft landing said...

40 years as a paid shill for the powers that be. What an A$$hole.

Anonymous said...

My greatest hope...

Anyone who watched The Sopranos remembers Tonys wife and her spec house, my greatest wish is that this is really a reflection of reality, that a 1000 mafiosos lose so much money they whack Greenspan and his whole family, that would certainly put a smile on my face.

Lost Cause said...

"In his memoirs, Mr Greenspan, a lifelong Republican, criticises his party for abandoning its small-government principles..."

I hate to remind you, but Carter started the small government thing, and it was actually Jerry Brown who made it an issue abck in 1976. And the biggest reduction in force of the federal government was overseen by Albert Gore.

k.w. - southern ca. said...

There was *NO ONE* clueless about the housing bubble.

Anyone with a little reasoning knew that
prices couldn't keep rising speculatively into the stratosphere - eventually someone has to make payments, with real money.

Now we're left with a nation that doesn't create anything except debt, along with an administrative body which should have been impeached long ago.

China, Russia, Korea, Iran, Iraq ... all are waiting to lower their own hammer on this nation.

While you can, live the best you can - which has nothing to do with whether you rent, house debt or own.

Dave A said...

Hey - what happened to the "SOFT LANDING" everyone was promising 3-6-12 months ago?

Would love to see a list of "best of the best" quotes from the REIC from those who counseled that a "SOFT LANDING" we were to experience. With dates on which they uttered the words included.

As for the MSM, seriously. It's all water gone under the bridge, but how easy would it have been for one of you to WIN A PULITZER with any basic reporting on the data and the trends over the past 18 months?

Anyone who had gone mainstream even 3 months ago with a series of articles on toxic mortgages, inflated demand, false price escalation, homebuilder stuff, NAR spin and delusion, and the coming fall, it's not different this time, etc. etc., would have been winning a Pulitzer.

How about the Pulitzer Board nominates Housing Panic for the award this year?

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Whether you like him or not depends on whether you made money in the US or foreign stockmarkets during the 80's and 90's and if you benefitted from the housing bubble.

The members of the financial press probably made money during both bubbles since they fawningly called him, "The Maestro"!

Anonymous said...

Greenspan admitted he advised Bush (W) that overthrowing Hussein was necessary to secure an oil supply for the US. Not only did this guy cause the worst asset bubble in history, he bears responsibility for the war in Iraq, too.

Anonymous said...

The man is a master of weasel.

Q: "Is there a housing bubble?"
A: "There is some froth in local markets"

Meaning "no bubble" to some and "plnety of bubbles" now.

Q: "How much will home prices decline"
A: "single or double digit percentage"

Most people's "double-digit" expectations might be anchored near "12%" or so.

Think weasel. What does that mean in Greenspan land?

It includes ANY value from 1% to 99%.

It's like how master bureaucrats work.

Any time there is a controversial decision, they write two memos, one supporting and one against the decision, and file them both.

If the waste impacts the ventilator turbine, they pull out the "see I told you so" memo.

abb said...

In case you have ANY doubt that Greenspan engineered these bubbles and knew EXACTLY what he was doing, read his words from 1966:

He should be publically hung.

a.creampuff said...

"froth in some markets" - didn't anyone else think "yeah, right - all the major metro areas, in other words - where everyone lives"? Greenspan was always a little cryptic, no? Just sayin'.

Anonymous said...

If you don't know what froth is ,than it's your problem . Why didn't some reporters ask Greenspan what "froth" means? Instead the markets/media likes to project what Greenspan means when he says something into a meaning that supports a bull market .

When Greenspan mentioned "froth ",within a short time I sold my house .I can't help it if everybody couldn't understand Greenspeak .
When Greenspan suggested using adjustable product ,I really think he wasn't suggesting that a borrower making 20 thousand a year buys a 700 thousand dollar house .

The point is that you can't take to serious anything that anyone says ,especially high profile people . Live your life by what you feel comfortable with . I got a fixed rate ,not a adjustable ,because any fool should of know that a fixed was the way to go .

hat trick said...

Greenspan nailed to the wall:

Money quote:

" In his old age, Alan Greenspan's face -- once darkly handsome in his youthful years as a jazz musician -- has taken on the strange appearance of a circus clown. Something about the way his lips have settled into a kind of thick fatuous smile, even when he is apparently not amused by anything. Is it one of God's clever little tricks to leave him looking like a clown in his valedictory years, or has his face just resolved into the perfect embodiment of leadership for a clown nation?"

Kenny said...

don't worry! all bad things will be over soon!